Atlético Madrid vs Chelsea, Champions League semi-final (Tuesday, April 22, 19.45)

The neatest way to summarize what Jose Mourinho and Co face in Madrid tonight is that Chelsea are about to endure the most unsettling prospect of facing ‘themselves’.

Atletico are Chelsea of April 2005. Thibaut Courtois is Petr Cech, Diego Costa is Didier Drogba and above all Diego Simeone is Mourinho at his very best.

Little wonder under-pressure Jose wants to repatriate Courtois next season and is well on his way to signing Diego Costa.

• Betting: Can the ‘new Chelsea’ beat the ‘old Chelsea?

Similarities with Chelsea 2005

Back in 2005 the Blues were horribly difficult to defeat and reached this semi-final stage by defeating both Porto and FC Barcelona – just as Atleti have done this season. But the greater similarities are in attitude, system, work ethic, all-for-one-and-one-for-all spirit.

Simeone is a street-tough man who isn’t afraid to admit he relies on his understanding of the Zodiac and horoscopes as part of his man-management techniques

‘Sanitarians need a lot of affection, but if you’re born under Scorpio you respond better to a bit of tough love. My star sign is Taurus – we can be a bit difficult to deal with. We’ll give you our heart and soul but only if you treat us well. If you try to force us to do something against our will, watch out.’

Tease him if you dare

Just like Mourinho used to have the ultimate capacity to achieve, Simeone has brought all his players, reserves too, to the boil at the same time – and kept them simmering all season. It’s one hell of a trick.

Simeone’s promise to his president

You could compare him to both Pep Guardiola and Mourinho for his absolute intensity – every minute of every working day. And in his spare time. He’ll often go to the cinema, catch the first 15 minutes but then become utterly overtaken by some new thought on training, or a rival, or the last match and need to walk out so that he can make notes.

Friends and family have tired of asking him whether he enjoyed a television programme, a movie or a concert. Usually he’ll have taken in about five per cent of what they have – because his restless football mind won’t let him alone.

Three trophies ago he took over with Atletico sliding down the table and able to peer over their shoulder at the relegation zone. He told his new president:

‘I’m going to make it unpleasant to play us, teams are going to suffer’.

He did. And they have

To this day his motto is: ‘If your car isn’t quite top notch then you have to find a way to puncture the other guy’s tyres so that you can keep up with him.’

What Terry and Lampard think…

When I spoke to John Terry and Frank Lampard (above in 2006) at Cobham last week and asked them about this tie each man pointed out that the general impression of Chelsea having had an extremely favourable draw in avoiding Real Madrid and Bayern didn’t tally with their views of the Spanish league leaders.

Each of them watches Spanish football and while each is respectful of the team it’s also Diego Simeone’s electric buzz of energy, animation and activity on the touchline which has impressed them.

My words, not theirs, but I think they see a version of Mourinho – just younger and as hungry as the Portuguese was back then.

For those who are trying to size up this match it’s important to point out that often Atletico’s margins are the smallest. Lots of 1-0 and 2-1 wins. An indication of rigour, but also an indication that if Chelsea can ‘do a job’ on them then taking a draw or a one-goal win back to London isn’t utterly impossible.

• Betting: Fancy Hunter’s tip of a tight Chelsea result?

More to Atleti than Costa

However, there’s a great deal to say that’s pro-Atletico. In all 23 Liga and Champions League games at the Calderon this season they’ve conceded just 10 times.

Notwithstanding the eye-catching nature of Courtois’ and Costa’s work this is a team – genuinely a terrific blend of youth, experience, pace, positional play, mental toughness. Will to win.

• For example, although the headline figure is that Costa (above), potentially Spain’s starting World Cup No9, has 35 goals this season it’s important to note than in Atletico’s last 12 games (since their last defeat) there have been nine different scorers – Costa, Villa, Koke, Raúl Garcia, Gabi, Diego, Godín, Arda Turan and Miranda.
• In those same games there have been nine individual goal-assist producers – Villa, Filipe Luis, Juanfran, Gabi, Raúl Garcia, Diego Arda, Adrian and Miranda.

Try picking a first goalscorer out of that lot. Atletico have Spain’s best set-play record offensively – they practice remorselessly and very often get it right.

That, allied to the fact that Atleti are noticeably good in the air in both attacking and defensive situations would suggest that conceding free kicks in the last third must be ‘verboten’ for Chelsea.

A little note for those who like in-play, should Atleti get a penalty and Costa is on the field he is likely to continue taking them – despite the fact that he’s missed four of eight this season.

Little details like that could well decide the whole tie and progress to Lisbon.

It’s old Chelsea against new Chelsea. May the better Chelsea win.

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Celtic boss Neil Lennon has already said that following Rangers’ much publicised demotion, his side must start to perform in Europe after years of failing to live up to expectations.

The Bhoys began their domestic season with a disappointing 1-1 draw against Ross County on Saturday but are likely to welcome back a number of their key players for the trip to Sweden, most notably striker Gary Hooper.

Hooper has been linked with a move away from Parkhead this summer but having managed to keep hold of him, boss Lennon knows his goals will be vital to any chance his side has of making it into the group stages.

Celtic will be confident of earning a result at the Olympia, but won’t have it all their own way against a competitive Helsinborgs side, who will fancy their chances.

Age Hareide’s men won the Swedish Premier League last term and don’t be surprised if they cause their Scottish opponents a number of problems.

This one looks almost too close to call but there seems to be a buzz surrounding Celtic at the moment and their determination should see them return to Scotland with an advantage ahead of next week’s second leg (Celtic 11/2 to win 1-0).

The other match that catches the eye is the tie between two old stalwarts of European football, Borussia Monchengladbach and Dynamo Kiev (Monchengladbach evens, draw 12/5, Kiev 11/4 in the match betting).

After winning the UEFA Cup in 1975 and 1979, Die Fohlen have had a couple of difficult decades but appear to be on the rise again and impressed by finishing fourth in the Bundesliga last season.

They have once again strengthened this summer and look out for striker Luuk De Jong to make an impact in the first leg.

The Dutchman was linked with moves to both Newcastle and Spurs earlier this year but eventually opted to join Borussia and will be desperate to live up to his hype, especially in Europe.

Just like their opponents on Tuesday, Dynamo Kiev appear to be a team on the rise and are in the midst of building a side capable of emulating the heights of past years.

Key to their chances in Germany will be the performance of winger Andriy Yarmolenko who is one of Europe’s hottest prospects.

After a difficult start to his career, the 22-year-old seems to have settled down and a big performance at Borussia-Park could even see him seal a move away from the Ukrainian capital.

Like the other game, this looks like a tough one to call but Monchengladbach’s added quality should just carry them to a single goal victory (Monchengladbach 7/1 to win 2-1).

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Group A

With Russia facing Greece in the other game, both teams go into the match in Wroclaw knowing a victory will see them through to the quarter-finals and keep alive their dreams of European Championship glory.

After a disappointing start to the tournament, the Czechs (4/5 to qualify) now appear to have found their form and produced a superb first half of free-flowing football as they defeated Greece in their second game of the tournament.

However, there were certainly times when they looked shaky, most notably at the back where Michal Bilek has been forced to rearrange his rearguard due to both injuries and poor form.

The unfamiliarity will surely mean that Chelsea shot-stopper Petr Cech will be regularly called upon on Saturday and he’ll be desperate to make amends, after his mix-up with Tomas Sivok allowed the Greeks back into the game on Tuesday.

The Poles (6/4 to qualify) came into the competition as the lowest-ranked side but have punched above their weight and now stand on the brink of qualifying for their first ever European Championship quarter-final.

Franciszek Smuda’s men disappointingly drew their opening game against Greece, despite getting off to the perfect start by taking the lead early on, but they showed their resilience on Tuesday, coming back from a goal behind to seal a famous draw against Russia to set up the showdown with the Czechs.

The hero that night was undoubtedly captain Jakub Blaszczykowski (9/2 to score at anytime) whose wonderful equaliser in Warsaw gave his side renewed hope after all looked lost.

The captain is one third of a trio of Borussia Dortmund players, alongside Robert Lewandowski and Lukas Piszczek, who have continued their Bundesliga form into the tournament and carried their country towards the knockout stages.

Their performances will be vital to any chance the Poles have of succeeding and look for Blaszczykowski to try and drag his side over the line.

This looks almost too tight to call and will certainly be a cagey affair. With the game being played less than an hour from the Czech border, it’s also going to be a vibrant atmosphere and both teams will certainly not be able to complain about a lack of support from their fans.

However, home advantage often counts for so much at these tournaments and the inspired Poles may just sneak through to the quarter-finals, but only by a single goal (Poland 13/2 to win 1-0).

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Sam Allardyce’s side were the pre-season automatic promotion favourites along with big-spending Leicester City, but Reading and Southampton upset the odds to secure their respective places in the Premier League next season.

The Hammers, who had to settle for third place, at least have another opportunity to return to the top-flight (13/8 – Promotion) at the first attempt via the lottery of the play-offs – but it will not be an easy mission.

First up is a trip to the Cardiff City Stadium to face Malky Mackay’s men, who only secured the sixth and final play-off spot on Saturday thanks to a come-from-behind 2-1 win at Crystal Palace.

The Bluebirds are in a decent run of form with just one defeat in 13 league games since, ironically, West Ham won 2-0 in South Wales in early March.

However, the majority of their points were picked up on the road with just one win, five draws and a 3-0 loss to Hull City in the last seven outings in front of their home fans.

Mackay will hope his players can find their feet in the Welsh capital at just the right time on Thursday as the Bluebirds have endured two successive seasons of play-off misery with a Wembley defeat against Blackpool in 2010 followed up by a semi-final loss at the hands of Reading 12 months ago.

It is a very familiar story for the Hammers, who will no doubt feel confident of securing a good result on Thursday having won three and drawn three of their final six away games of the domestic campaign in a 13-match run of form which, bizarrely, has been identical to Cardiff’s since their last meeting.

Allardyce, who should have a fully fit squad to choose from for the game, saw his team’s automatic promotion aspirations damaged by their home form in which they failed to win in five successive matches between February 4 and April 14.

Crucially, the Londoners looked to have found a remedy for their homesickness in the nick of time as they won their final two matches at Upton Park – 6-0 against Brighton and a final day 2-1 victory against Hull City on Saturday.

As far as the past season’s head-to-head record goes, both sides won on their travels with Cardiff securing a win at Upton Park on the opening weekend of the campaign and, as mentioned earlier, the Hammers won 2-0 in Wales.

Therefore it is a play-off encounter which could depend on which team does not fluff their lines on home soil.

Throw into the mix the fact Cardiff were one of the Championship’s draw specialists with 18 stalemates from 46 league games, while West Ham drew 14, and it all points to a very nervous and tense battle which just about sums up the play-offs.

Looking ahead to Thursday’s game, we would not be surprised if the Hammers exploited Cardiff’s home frailties and just edged the contest to take a lead, albeit a slender one, back to London for next week’s second leg.

Prediction: West Ham Away 90 Minutes @ 13/8
Value Bet: West Ham To Win 1-0 Correct Score @ 13/2.

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Manchester United v Everton (12.30pm)

United’s blip, if it was just that, at Wigan earlier this month will probably be forgotten if they see off Everton (2/7 – match prices) at home this weekend, and there aren’t many people around who think this will result in anything other than another victory for Sir Alex Ferguson’s side to edge them closer to a 20th title (1/7).

Rivals Manchester City will have let out a howl of frustration when they realised it was David Moyes’ side who are the visitors as the Blues have a truly awful recent record at Old Trafford. You have to go back to August 1992 for the Merseysiders’ last win there, while their recent Premier League record at United reads: played five, lost five.

Ferguson’s title-chasers may have got a helping hand, or should that be dive, last week when they saw off Aston Villa with the minimum of fuss but, even with Ashley Young’s theatrics, the result was never in doubt and expect more of the same in this one.

How Everton (10/1, draw 9/2 – match prices) react to their heartbreaking FA Cup semi-final defeat to Liverpool at Wembley will be key to how much of an easy ride the Red Devils get on Sunday, but they still have a very outside chance of claiming a European place to inspire them and, more importantly, the small target of trying to finish above their Mersey rivals in the table.

However, we envisage nothing other than a comfortable home win here with 2-0 at 5/1 appealing in the correct score market.

Wolves Man City (4pm)

The aforementioned City (4/1 Premier League outright) know three points at Molineux is a must if they are to remain in the title race and, with the Manchester derby around the corner, expect them to maintain the light pressure on United with a routine victory.

The 6-1 thrashing of Norwich last time out, which included a rejuvenated Carlos Tevez hat-trick, showed the rest of the league that City can still turn on the style after what had been a faltering last month or so and they will approach this trip to the Black Country hoping to rack up a similar goal difference-boosting scoreline.

It is unlikely to be as easy as it turned out at Carrow Road with Wolves knowing they need a win themselves to somehow try and prevent them from slipping back into the Championship and this one could be level at half-time with that in mind. So Draw/City – HT/FT at 7/2 may well be worth a punt.

Expect Tevez and Aguero to again be the tormentors in attack, though, and both should be backed to score anytime at 8/11 to ensure City still retain an interest in the title going into the derby and all but relegate doomed Wolves.

Liverpool v West Brom (4pm)

This game is probably more notable for the return of Roy Hodgson to Anfield than anything else but Liverpool will be determined to secure a much-needed home victory (4/9 – match prices) as, so far, they have accumulated their lowest points total at Anfield for many a season.

The Reds have won just five games in front of their own fans and have drawn a whopping nine – easily the highest amount in the whole division.

That sort of record led Hodgson to be sacked in January 2011 after barely six months in charge and, while Kenny Dalglish is getting much more time than his predecessor, he knows home form has not been good enough and another slip-up here will not be tolerated despite the celebrated success in the Cups.

The Baggies (13/2 to win, draw 7/2 – match prices)  have proved a difficult side to beat all campaign, however, and are well clear of trouble now at the bottom as they sit 13 points above the drop zone. Hodgson will want to prove a point and is sure to set up his side to be solid in the hope Dalglish’s men again fail to break down so-called weaker opposition.

Andy Carroll has looked a different player in recent weeks and his two late winners in the last two games will give him the confidence to believe he can yet be a success at Anfield so is worth backing at to score first at 5/1 while a narrow 2-1 win for the Reds also looks appealing at 7/1.

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Chelsea v Leicester (2:05)

The only Football League team left in the competition face a tall order (Match Betting – Chelsea 2/7, draw 9/2, Leicester 10/1), with Leicester looking to produce a cup shock at Chelsea – but don’t rule it out!

The Foxes have already upset the odds by beating Norwich at Carrow Road in the last round and have a squad that should be doing better than they are in the Championship. In Nigel Pearson, Leicester also have a shrewd manager who will make his team hard to break down.

Strike duo Jermaine Beckford (10/3 – Anytime Goalscorer) and David Nugent both have top-flight experience and Beckford, who is the FA Cup’s joint top scorer with five goals, has the pace to cause the Blues backline real problems.

A lot will be asked of Leicester’s defence and the likes of Wes Morgan and Sean St Ledger will have to be on top form if they are to snub out the considerable threat of Didier Drogba and Daniel Sturridge.

Leicester will be hoping that they encounter a tired Chelsea team, following their extra-time Champions League exploits against Napoli in midweek. The home side may also be without key defenders David Luiz and John Terry, who both picked up knocks in Europe.

On the other hand, that outstanding comeback success will further boost confidence in a squad that looks to have found a fresh impetus since the sacking of Andre Villas-Boas.

Chelsea (3/1 – FA Cup Outright) have won three successive games in all competitions since Roberto Di Matteo took charge and predictably will start strong favourites – especially having progressed on each of the four previous occasions they have been drawn against Leicester in the FA Cup.

All in all, Chelsea look too strong for their Championship opponents, but Leicester will make it tough for Premier League side if they are at their best.

Liverpool v Stoke (4:00)

These two teams know each other inside out, having already played three times this season. All the previous games have been tight affairs and expect more of the same this time (Match Betting – Liverpool 2/5, draw 10/3, Stoke 8/1).

Stoke defeated Liverpool 1-0 in the Premier League back in September before the Reds knocked the Potters out of the Carling Cup at the Britannia Stadium in October. The two teams then played out a 0-0 draw at Anfield in the league in January.

Stoke (5/1 to keep a clean sheet) have not won at Anfield in 53 years and will feel that run has to come to an end at some stage, but Liverpool’s cup form has been outstanding and they appeared determined to reach another Wembley final.

The Carling Cup winners will be buoyed by their Merseyside derby win in midweek and the expected return from injury of Craig Bellamy (9/2 – First Goalscorer) will give them another lift.

Kenny Dalglish, who has defended Stoke’s style of play this week, is likely to stick with much the same side that disposed of Everton on Tuesday and will hope home advantage will pay dividends.

Tony Pulis’ men tasted cup fever last season, reaching the final before losing to Manchester City, but will go into this match with no fear having now firmly established themselves as a Premier League side.

Stoke’s lack of goals is the major concern for those looking to back a cup upset, with the Potters unable to score more than one goal on their travels in the Premier League since January 2 – although they have scored seven goals in three away cup ties at Crawley, Derby and Gillingham.

With Dalglish hungry for more silverware and with an expectant home crowd, Liverpool (5/2 – FA Cup Outright) could just edge another tight tussle between these two clubs.

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The season so far has been a disaster both on and off the field for Zaragoza. It appears their financial woes are now being reflected on the pitch and with only 15 points to their name, they look almost certain to be relegated.

However, there is hope and in recent games they have looked an altogether stronger unit. Their defending has been much improved, most notably in last weekend’s 2-0 win at Espanyol. This is mainly down to new coach Manolo Jimenez, who we know from his time at Sevilla likes to play cautious, counter-attacking football. His influence could keep the Blanquillos in the division and their solid formation is sure to pose Betis a number of problems.

However, you also need to score goals and in former Tottenham striker Helder Postiga, they certainly have a player who can find the net. The Portuguese international was the Aragon club’s major signing of the summer but he is yet to find consistency for his new side and has only netted five times in 20 matches. Despite this though, he is sure to be sniffing around the box at La Romareda so don’t be surprised if he scores.

Betis (13/2 to win 1-0) have been one of the surprise packages of the season following their promotion from the second division last term. However, having started the campaign superbly, their form has dipped. They will have some confidence after winning last week at home to Bilbao but it’s at home where they garner most of their points and they often struggle to find any form on the road.

Their key man is often striker Roque Santa Cruz who is currently on-loan from Premier League leaders Manchester City (4/7 Premier League outright). The Paraguayan is seen as one of the most creative players in the game but is often found lacking when it comes to scoring goals. However, with his talent, he’ll relish playing against Zaragoza’s shaky back four so look out for him to have a big say on the outcome of the match.

However, home advantage could play a big part and following their victory last week, Manolo Jimenez’s side will be confident of taking the three points. It should be close though so expect a tight and cagey game (Zaragoza 17/2 to win 2-1).

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Wigan boss Roberto Martinez has assured fans that the Latics are heading to Chelsea’s  Stamford Bridge on Sunday in search of a victory.

The odds stand in Chelsea’s favour 1/10 to win on Sunday, whereas Manchester United at 1/8 – both on the back of the opposition away form that has Wigan at 20/1 to win, and Stoke slightly shorter at 18/1

It will come as great news to Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson entertain Stoke at Old Trafford  looking for a win that could see them pip Chelsea to the title – should the Blues fail to beat Wigan.

• Bet on this outcome: Can Chelsea Win the Premier League

The United camp will be buoyed by Wigan’s unpredictability and will head into Sunday’s match knowing that they still have a real chance if the same Wigan side turn up that have beaten Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool this season.

The problem is, all of those victories over the perceived ‘Top Four’ teams have come at the JJB Stadium.

Wigan’s away form in 2010 has left a lot to be desired. In fact, it’s been woeful – avoiding defeat on just two occasions and picking up just four points.

• Bet on this outcome: Can Manchester United Win the Premier League

Since the turn of the year, Wigan have managed a solitary draw at Sunderland and one away victory, which came in a 2-0 win at Wolves on January 16th.

However, any suggestion of having nothing to play for will be hotly disputed by Latics chairman Dave Whelan, who knows that a victory could see them leapfrog Bolton into 14th and with it, secure additional money for their league finish.

A loss at Chelsea coupled with a draw or win for Wolves and a victory for West Ham could see Wigan finish as low as 17th.

So, Wigan certainly have something to play for, and in one of the most exciting and unpredictable seasons in years, who would put it past the Lancashire outfit to wreck the Stamford Bridge party?

Related posts:

1. Premiership Predictions: Which Wigan Team Will Turn Up on Saturday?
2. Chelsea Take Advantage Of Manchester United Defeat at Everton
3. Chelsea, Man United, Man City & Tottenham battle it out

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