Based purely on the history of two-leg European ties, Fulham have a far better chance of making the first Europa League Final than Liverpool- but if Bobby Zamora isn’t fit to play, the Reds might be the better bet.

Liverpool go in against Athletico Madrid trying to pull back a 1-0 deficit from the match in Spain. On probabilities, it gives Athletico around a 55% chance of going through. Fulham managed a 0-0 result in Hamburg which should give the Cottagers a big advantage.

Teams achieving a goalless draw in their away leg triumph around 70% of the time. Roy Hodgson will be aware that his side should be favourites but Bobby Zamora’s Achilles injury has disrupted their plans.

• Bet on Livepool or Fulham in Europa League Semi-Final Matches

Not only might they be without their main striker, Fulham have to contend with Hamburg’s extraordinary decision to dispense with their manager since the first leg. Bruno Labbadia’s team took a pasting at the weekend and are slipping down the Bundesliga table- European qualification for next year isn’t certain but it still seems an amazing gamble to take.

Liverpool should be underdogs for their tie but they have a proven record in pulling back deficits at Anfield. Benfica were brushed aside in the last round and many sides have wilted in front of the Anfield roar.

Steven Gerrard has a habit of becoming inspirational in these circumstances- the epic against Olympiakos in 2004/05 is perhaps his finest hour in a red shirt. Even without the injured Fernando Torres, there is an air of confidence around the club that the tie can be won.

Athletico have lived dangerously in their run to the semis- away goals came to their aid in both the last two rounds. They are a side who like to set up on the counter-attack and will be hopeful of picking off Liverpool if they attack too much. Against that, Athletico don’t have an iron defence and a clean sheet for the La Liga side would be a surprise.

Liverpool’s huge European experience has to be weighed against the advantage that the visitors hold. The consensus of opinion is that the Madrid team wil be worn down by the pressure.

• Bet on Livepool or Fulham in Europa League Semi-Final Matches

Fulham should be the better English hope but without Zamora the Cottagers may find it difficult to break the German side down. Expect a nail-biting night at both venues but an all-English final to be the outcome.

Related posts:

1. Liverpool, Fulham Europa League Semi-Finals Preview
2. Europa League Predictions: Fulham Can Hold On At Wolfsburg
3. Europa League Predictions: Fulham Can Squeeze A Draw Out Of Shakhtar

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