Graham Hunter: Real Madrid to win the derby, Barcelona to draw away and Ronaldo to make it 15 against Atletico

The Madrid Derby makes it’s first appearance of the season and Sevilla welcome Barcelona to the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium. This weeks Bumper Banker is Madrid to win Ronaldo to score, Barca and Sevilla to play out a score draw and Villarreal to win away to Levante. Every week I call someone out and this week it’s Jackson Martinez the €36 million man who can’t score anymore.

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Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid:

  • Ronaldo has only scored one hat-trick against Atletico.
  • He has scored the first goal three times.
  • Atletico have won six times since Simone took over, including four last season.

Sevilla v Barcelona:

  • Barcelona are missing Iniesta, Messi and Bravo. Sevilla are missing Llorente, Vitolo and Pareja. 
  • There has been 24 goals in the last four meeting with Neymar, Banega and Gameiro all getting two.
  • Barcelona have scored five goals twice in the last four games.

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Graham Hunter: Barca v Madrid again, but Atletico will be knocking on the door

If La Liga’s your bag then it’s already clear you know your football and you know that, technically, tactically and trophy-wise it’s the best league in the world – by far. But if you like the increasing tendency for the survival of the fittest, rather than the survival of the richest, this promises to be the season for you.

  • Athletic Club have already ripped into Barcelona putting five past them in the Supercup.
  • Valencia humbled both Madrid and Atlético last season
  • Real Sociedad beat each of the ‘big three’ last term
  • Atleti defeated Madrid in the Copa final of 2013, won the title in 2014 and performed historically well against Los Blancos over the last twelve months. Four ‘derbi’ wins
  • Atleti can consider they cost Madrid title in that Barça won by just two points last May.
  • Positions three, four and five were separated by a single point each time.
  • Barça lost at home to both Málaga and Celta

Diego Simeone wiki edit

 

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There is ferocious competition – it’s just that such competition, allied to mega-budgets, has forced some absolute excellence out of Madrid and Barcelona over recent years. Four Champions League titles between the clubs since 2009 is testimony to that. Frankly, La Liga’s clubs cope better with doing battle against these two than the rest of Europe does.

But while it’s not realistic to ask Sevilla or Valencia to win the title I think Atleti may be back. Or at least they look as threatening, well-organized, balanced and goal-hungry as in winning the title in 2013/14. What Cholo Simeone needs is a wee bit of help from the big two.

Madrid are in the hands of a serial winner. No-one should doubt that IF he’s not undercut by his own employers, IF he’s not caught up in a PR war between Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale, IF he doesn’t fall out chronically with the aggressive, quixotic, fair-weather friends of the Madrid media then Rafa Benítez’ talent, added to Los Blanco’s playing resources, could feasibly make them either Spanish or European champions.

Cristiano Ronaldo

 

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But you get my theme? Look at the list of man-traps waiting for him there – and that’s just a sample. It’s a botch-up not to have signed David De Gea by now – Madrid conceded 17 more goals than the champions last season. Can they lock the door this time? Stocking Benítez’s two man midfield in a 4-2-3-1 – will come from Kroos, Modric, Kovacic, Casemiro. Powerful. But the front four? There’s the potential for disharmony, confusion and problems. How to fit in Ronaldo, Bale, Isco, James, Benzema, Lucas Vazquez, Cheryshev, Jesé?

“We have to reach the decisive part of the season attacking and winning games” Benítez said the other day. Madrid fans want that now. In working out your bets you may want to factor in that Los Blancos won ONCE against the rest of the top four in the league. Goal aggregate 8-13 against.

Barcelona have the talent to win another treble –  but do they have the desire or depth of squad? Resources diminished by the FIFA ban [Vidal and Arda can’t play till January and won’t be sent out on loan] they’ve also lost Xavi, Pedro and Montoya. That’s 104 appearances and thirteen goals which can only be replaced by B-team guys and the now-fit Vermaelen. Piqué’s ban means he misses the first four matches. Luis Enrique squeezed every single drop of concentration, effort, intensity and talent from his squad – even hurdled a mini crisis when he went head-to-head with Leo Messi in early January. But can he repeat that?

Lionel Messi 2013

 

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Will Benitez have the same kind of in-squad help from anyone that ‘Lucho’ got from Xavi? [Correct answer: no] Thus, can Atleti sneak in and rob the family silver? If the market closes and they have kept Antoine Griezmann and he’s paired with Jackson Martínez and Luciano Vietto with El Niño Torres showing them what playing for the Colchoneros really means then … possibly.

What a league where it’s Messi-Suárez-Neymar v Bale, Benzema, Ronaldo v Griezmann-Jackson-Vietto! No three-club strikeforces in any country in the world will outscore that lot cumulatively. Atleti can’t be considered outright favourites. But dark horses? Yes.

  • Able to work in lower profile
  • Superb coach
  • Diego Godín settled and committed,
  • Two top keepers
  • Talent, youth and huge experience in midfield
  • A deep squad –
  • A winning mentality.

Last season, before they re-stocked, I worried this might be Atleti’s first trophy-less season since 2008/2009 [which other club around Europe can boast that astonishing record?] Not so sure now. Goalscoring? The eye is always drawn to the Messi v Ronaldo battle – barring injuries they should split the top two positions. But I think the gap will narrow.

Both Suárez and Neymar look capable of increasing their tallies [without misfortune the Uruguayan will have over two months extra via which to do that compared to last season] Messi is much more focussed on trophies than scoring records and, as such, might increase his ‘assist’ tally. Not a suggestion I’d make about CR7.

David Moyes

 

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Benítez wants Benzema to: ‘…break the 25 goal barrier’, while both Jackson Martínez and Griezmann have all the equipment to exceed 30 goals in all competitions. Who’d be a goalie?

I’m backing Athletic for the Copa [five Cup finals reached since 2009], Marco Asensio to be the stand-out ‘revelation’ of the season, Sporting and Betis to fight it out for fans of the season … but what of David Moyes and La Real?

Shorter on goals than Danny De Vito is on centimetres this is, finally, a squad and an XI which should be competitive. But things haven’t yet ‘clicked’. Bruma’s wing-pace, the goal potential of Carlos Vela and Jonathas, Pardo’s control of midfield organisation. Moyes made them work their socks off in pre-season. But La Real couldn’t score.

They’ll should be much more robust, much less likely to be powder-puff away from Anoeta. And if things do ‘click’ they’ll fight for a Europa League place. But as Samuel Eto’o once said: ‘Goals! They are like rats up a drainpipe if you chase after them – you’ve just got to wait and let them come in their own time. Right now, La Real could do with a rat-catcher.

Happy season punters.


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Graham Hunter exclusive: Why La Liga is a two-horse race – but there may be a Cup in the new-look Atletico

So the joke goes: an anteater walks into a bar wearing an Atlético Madrid scarf and the barman says to him: Why the long odds?.

You can take 14/1 off Paddy Power for los Rojiblancos to defend their title and while it’s probably common sense to offer them as third favourites against the vastly reinforced Barcelona and Madrid – those odds for a defending champion is an unusual sight.

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Particularly after the club splurged it’s greatest ever outlay on a single transfer binge – touching €98m gross once the delayed operation for Ángel Correa (whose heart anomaly needs to be defined and corrected) is completed.

Moreover,  this club, in recent years, must be in the top three of world football for spotting the right players, whether expensive, cheap or free, to be affordable, the right ‘fit’, winners and with a major sell-on value.

They have a fabulous track record over the last four or five years. Fabulous.

Thibaut-Courtois-800

To put flesh on this summer’s bones, manager Diego Simeone has added exciting French winger/second striker Antoine ‘Greased Lightning’ Griezmann, Mario Mandzukic, Correa, Benfica keeper Jan Oblak, Mexican striker Raúl Jimenéz, back-up keeper Miguel Ángel Moya and flying wing-back Guillherme Siqueira.

Of the 14 departures the most significant are Diego Costa, Thibaut Courtois (above), Filipe Luis, Diego Ribas and David Villa.

Putting the squeeze on …

Simeone (below) justifiably enjoys the reputation of a man-manager who is able to squeeze every last drop of attitude and commitment out of his footballers – something which may be handy with Mandzukic.

As such it’s feasible that he can handle the impact of this hemorrhage / transfusion operation of players in and out more quickly and more successfully than most.

The age and quality of their recruits plus the block of important footballers who’ve been retained (Miranda, Godín, Gabi, Koke, Juanfran, Raúl Garcia for example) suggests that there might be a trophy in Atlético.

Also that they should be capable of doing some damage to the ‘big two’ in one-on-one situations. But the title? No.

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

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To me the key is that Atlético won La Liga by a hairsbreadth last season.

Twelve single goal wins (18 across all competitions), clinching the title on the last day at the Camp Nou where just one more goal from Barcelona, in a weak season, would have given them the crown. Hairsbreadth.

Throughout the season they were constantly in debt to Costa for those single-goal victories – winners against Milan, Madrid, Levante and Athletic in Europe, La Liga and the Copa Del Rey are examples. Equally, Courtois saved them over and over and over again.

Up for the Cup …

Good luck to the armada of new strikers and to goalkeeper Oblak.

But it’s just not feasible for them to reproduce what Simeone has lost in a season when there’s been the disruption of 23 moves either in or out. Last summer I tipped Simeone’s lot as likely title winners.

Trust me again when I say nothing better than a cup competition this time around.

Barcelona-800

So, who else outside Los Rojiblancos MIGHT do damage to Madrid and Barça?

Last season was a finger in the eye to the ‘disengage brain and open mouth’ pundits who know nothing about La Liga. ‘Not competitive, two horse blah, blah, yawn, halfwit comment…’ was too often the stereotypical comment.

Beyond Atlético winning the title, Madrid and Barcelona lost points home and away to Levante, Real Sociedad, Granada, Getafe, Elche, Villarreal, Sevilla and Celta Vigo while the clubs who took points off BOTH the big two were Athletic, Osasuna, Valencia and Valladolid.

So 13 clubs were able to trip the big two up. Competitive.

Sadly, I believe, things have changed. Most weeks I’ll go into more depth about the individual clubs who catch the eye in La Liga but suffice to say now: Osasuna and Valladolid have been relegated, Levante, Getafe, Real Sociedad, Athletic, Sevilla, Celta, Atlético have all lost either their best or second best player and/or their manager.

Ronaldo celebrates

Elche and Granada might be around a similar level but won’t be putting their life savings on taking major scalps again while it’s arguable that Villarreal and Valencia might be more competitive this time around.

Madrid and Barcelona will inevitably slip up here and there but I’m convinced that, this season, it actually is a one v one battle to succeed 2014 champions Atlético.

You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter @BumperGraham

 

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga preview: Real Madrid should sink The Submarine and don’t be surprised to see red when Atletico meet Sevilla

Villarreal [7th] v Real Madrid [5th] – Saturday 3pm

  • Villarreal 15/4, Real Madrid 4/6, Draw 3/1 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Villarreal wins over Real Madrid come along about as often as a Scottish Independence referendum so it’s very tempting just to vote ‘No!’ here without listening to the debate.
The last time that fabled event took place Manchester City wasn’t even a gleam in Manuel Pellegrini’s eye and Real Madrid still heaped faith and optimism in Lassana Diarra and Royston Drenthe – whatever happened…… Never mind.

It was May 2009, just the second such triumph in their history and only three players from that night, Casillas, Bruno and Cani, can repeat this weekend. Each of them holds the potential to be a major participant.

Carlo Ancelotti (below), right now, is forcing all of us who pay attention to Spanish football to mimic him, in raising our left eyebrows like caterpillars ascending Alpe D’Huez for the Geometrid King of the Mountain’s title. Just over a week ago this most affable of Italian football godfathers began to snap and snarl at people who asked him about the goalkeeping situation. ‘No debate, I’m not getting into all that – Iker is the first team keeper and we won’t be rotating like last season’. Two games later he rotate the keepers.

Or… did he?

Carlo Ancelotti840

With Madrid’s home fans split down the middle over whether to chant in support of San Iker [Saint Iker] or whistle and jeer him, Casillas was left out against Elche. Rotated? Dropped? Keylor came in, did fine but basically had no work. Now Ancelotti says that he will not be playing one keeper in the Bernabeu and another in away matches but will not, either, confirm which of the two will be in the starting XI against Villarreal. [Iker I reckon]

So, what the hell is he up to?

As for Bruno he’s one of the most hard-working, agile and smart midfielders without a high profile in Spanish football. A local boy, he’s someone who could take advantage of the fact that while Toni Kroos is now the ‘organising midfielder’ he does have a tendency to go walkabout.

Then there’s Cani. Rested for Villarreal’s last game, 1-1 at Eibar, he has the aggression, height, know-how and ambition to produce something special on the big occasion, just as he did a year ago on Gareth Bale’s debut, here, in a 2-2 result which ultimately helped cost Madrid the title.

But, don’t ignore the obvious. Ronaldo (below) loves scoring at Villarreal – five in his last four visits – and he’s also hit seven in his last two Liga matches (4/9 to score anytime). The Submarine have three draws a defeat and a comeback win having trailed 0-2 at home to struggling Rayo to show for the weeks after shining in the Europa League qualifying. Imposing themselves and winning is costing them the world at the moment.

Gio Dos Santos is near to return, 20 year old ‘Lucky’ Luciano Vietto scored twice last week to open his account and Uche is working like a dog to supercede his injuries….. but it’ll take a strange twist of events if Madrid don’t add to their wee run of victories, even if at a reduced margin. Ronaldo (4/9 anytime) and Bale (10/11 anytime) to score and see them through.

Ronaldo celebrates

Barcelona [1st] v Granada [8th] – Saturday 5pm

  • Barcelona 1/8, Granada 20/1, Draw 7/1 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Football is rock n roll, football grabs the senses, puts them in a high rev spin and returns them to you at the end of 90 minutes – football is a Ryder Cup-high every weekend. Football is king of sports. So let me make your adrenalin soar and your pulse rate rip through the Stock Aitken and Waterman hi-energy beats per minute.

Barcelona and Granada had 67% and 59% of possession in their midweek games … and neither team even managed one paltry effort on target. ‘Football, bloody hell’ [© SAF] Barcelona regularly struggle to beat Granada by more than a single goal and they lost to them last season [1-0] in a match where they bombarded the penalty area but could have been there until August without scoring.

More, Barça’s Messi-dependency has grown over the last year and a bit.

Lionel Messi 2013

If he’s on form, either as an assist-giver or scorer, Barcelona will beat most sides and become trophy contenders. If not, and he once again looked sluggish and tired in midweek even before Malága defender Weligton proved that not only can his parents not spell, he can’t read the rules of football [Clue: it’s NOT WWF] they huff and puff.

Does this paint as a possible banana-skin game for the home side?

Granada don’t concede much, they beat the Catalans last season, they’ve a healthy eight point total already and their coach, Joaquín Caparrós is one savvy dude with a wealth of La Liga know-how. Luis Enrique says: ‘I expect a complicated rival. ‘They are very strong defensively. ‘They work hard, they are smart at set pieces and they counter-attack well. ‘This’ll be the same as almost all our games this season’

Mebbe so. I’ve got a slightly different view. Granada not only were beaten at home in midweek [Levante] they were battered the previous game when winning in Bilbao on a day when they could and should have conceded about five. Barcelona were strangled all over the pitch by a super-industrious Malága midweek – it was one of those which looked like 14 men playing 11.

But the first thing which Caparrós targeted in criticising his team’s midweek slump was their intensity. Their work rate, their concentration but above all their intensity.

Iniesta-Spain-v-Ireland

If they repeat that and fail to learn from Malága’s excellence – they’ll be beaten. In Jhon Córdoba (5/1 anytime) and El Arabi (9/2 anytime), Granada have two big, quick strikers capable of running beyond Barcelona’s extremely high defensive line – can Bravo keep his goal secure [none conceded in the league thus far] and head towards a record? He’s 8/13 to keep a clean sheet.

Andrés Iniesta (above) hasn’t shone yet and needs to – this is just the type of game in which he might open his account (2/1 anytime) but Ivan Rakitic, who’ll take some of the free kicks and who’s not scared of a shot from distance, might add to the one he scored last week at Levante (2/1 anytime).

Sandro (10/11 anytime), if he gets more game time, looks a little sharper in front of goal than Munir (4/5 anytime) right now which is worth noting.

Atlético [3rd] v Sevilla [1st] – Saturday 7pm

  • Atletico 8/11, Sevilla 15/4, Draw 11/4 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Recently this has been a game where the Spanish league has, politely, asked all participants and management to check their holsters, knuckle-dusters, coshes and tasers in with the security guards at a desk outside each dressing room. To merely brand it ill-tempered would be like saying that the Clanton and Earp brothers didn’t turn out to be socially compatible and that the Campbell’s weren’t great neighbours to Clan MacDonald.

The last six games between the sides have been Football at the OK Corral. They’ve produced 37 bookings, nine red cards [six of which have been straight reds] and five penalties. Very nearly a card of one colour or other every eleven minutes. All bar one of the games have been under the control of Diego Simeone (below) and Unai Emery.

simeone_840

But a couple of the game’s bad boys have moved on – Medel, Diego Costa, Filipe Luis for example. More, when this weekend’s ref, Snr Gonzalez Gonzalez was last in charge of the fixture it was like the Peace Games and white doves were released over the stadium at the end.Right in the middle of this run of undisguised ill-feeling he managed to see the 90 minutes through with only six bookings – ie no reds, no penalties. Can this ref keep things calm again?

Rumours that he put bromide in the players’ tea pre-match are quite unconfirmed.

So, this weekend. Sevilla are joint top, two points ahead of Los Colchoneros and Simeone’s side have looked irregular in draws with Celta and Rayo plus that Champions League defeat in Athens. But beware. Over these six back-alley skirmishes there have been 18 goals only five of which were scored by Sevilla who’ve managed no better than two draws and four defeats.

Raul-Garcia-Atletico

Carlos Bacca has been Sevilla’s touchstone for big goals this season [and last] but he didn’t score in either meeting with Atleti last term and was subbed off both times. Is he ready for this intensity this time? Is the slight slackness which Atletico are showing [they went behind against Celta at home last week and then gifted a really stupid penalty for the equalizer] the sniff of an opportunity which the Colombian requires? He’s 12/5 to score anytime if so.

Atletico are still scoring almost all their goals from set plays [six out of seven in the league], the majority headers, so it’s still worth thinking about Raul Garcia (above, 9/4 anytime), Miranda (9/1 anytime) and Diego Godín (8/1 anytime) while for Sevilla, Stephane Mbia (11/1 anytime) just loves a big goal when he arrives late in the box.

Two significant returns. Diego Simeone’s back on the touchline after his ban … will that quieten down the feud or ratchet it up? and Mario ‘Don’t call me the Phantom of the Opera’ Mandzukic is available again thanks to his 65 gram carbon fibre mask to protect his badly fractured nose.

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Graham Hunter: Here’s how Diego Simeone has transformed Atletico Madrid from whipping boys to sadists

There was a time when this would have been a Fifty Shades Of Grey fixture.

Barça v Atlético, home or away, began to get a bit sado-masochistic.

The Catalans, generally, imposing the pain, the Madrileños accepting the humilation. Both kept turning up for more.

While Barça didn’t ALWAYS win, Atlético’s ten matches with the Blaugrana prior to Diego Simeone taking over saw them concede 36 times.

An appalling figure, more pertinent to primary school football.

Then, get this, when the now guru-figure of Simeone did take over the first three results were all defeats and cost another eight goals.

Thirteen games, three wins, 44 conceded.

Since Barcelona last won this fixture there have been five meetings between the sides and Los Colchoneros have conceded just twice in that time.

From allowing nearly 3.4 goals per game to 0.4 a match. That ain’t bad.

Filter out the games at the Calderón and it was much, much more embarrassing. Prior to this season, Atlético lost 26 goals in six visits to the Camp Nou, the very stadium in which the league leaders require either a draw or a win to give them their first Spanish championship for 18 years.

They were shipping in four a game. Crazy

Eto for Barca v Atletico

The thing which helps establish beyond any doubt who is the most important man at Atletico, is the lineup from Los Colchoneros’ last defeat at the Camp Nou. In December 2012 Atleti took the lead against Barcelona. The XI which needed to defend that 0-1 lead for 59 minutes was: Courtois, Juanfran, Miranda, Godín, Filipe Lluis: Turan, Mario Súarez, Gabi, Koke: Falcao, Diego Costa.

It’s perfectly feasible that ten of those men take the pitch in Simeone’s starting XI on Saturday evening … and, dammit, you’d say that the presence of goal-matchine Falcao probably makes that a stronger side than the coach has at this disposal this weekend.

Fifty nine minutes later, however, they’d been trounced 4-1.

The previous Barça v Atleti result was 5-0. On that night the visitors fielded Courtois, Godín, Miranda, Mario Súarez, Tiago, Gabi and Diego – on the bench were Filipe Luis, Juanfran, Adrián and Arda.

Again, eleven players who might all be under the microscope as Spain’s Liga has it’s most high profile, most tense finale in history.

Simeone has taken all the same guys, added very little in terms of new talent, and completely transformed them from masochists to sadists.

Obviously, all this partly indicates how much Barcelona’s intensity, cutting edge, speed of play and individual brilliance has declined over the last ten months.

Leo Messi used to find scoring goals against Atlético, even when they had a knockout keeper like Courtois, easier than shooting goldfish in a barrel.

He’s now six meetings, and counting, without a goal or an assist against Los Rojiblancos.

Lionel Messi training Argentina

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Above all, those previous stats tell most about Simeone.

Yes, he’s working the team harder week in week out in training. Those who aren’t inspired by him are intimidated by him.

He demands that everyone train with at least as much, if not more, passion and appetite than they actually play with.

In that sense, if not in the philosophy of how games should be play, he’s Pep Guardiola’s brother from another mother.

But to take a group of men who were habitually used to being thrashed within an inch of their life (none of whom were ex public schoolboys) and to turn them into a stubborn, feisty, streetwise Dirty Dozen, as used to thwarting Barcelona as they were once beaten before the first whistle, is one hell of an achievement.

He’s succeeded in that most difficult of tasks – changing the psychology of an entire group. Unifying levels of hunger and confidence. Improving them

The ‘Cup Final’ mentality…

Twice in the last two seasons Simeone, evidently a terrific svengali figure for whom players will give ‘extra’ when they think they are empty and ready to punch the clock, has brought a winning ‘cup final’ end of term performance out of his troops.

Let’s call the Uefa Europa league final of 2012 and the Copa del Rey final of 2013 the direct equivalent of this ‘Cup Final’ which awaits Atleti on Saturday in Barcelona.

In 2012 Atleti weren’t quite supposed to be meat and drink for Athletic Club but the Basques’ performances that season, particularly in hammering Manchester United, indicated that they should have been properly threatening in the all-Spanish final.

Instead, Simeone’s Atleti were better from start to finish and in every possible department. They were fitter, they enjoyed the occasion more, they worked harder, they were cleverer and more effective – they completely bossed it.

A year later, again in a last-game-of-the-season-showdown, Atleti showed an utterly different characteristic. They fought and clawed to stay level with Real Madrid in the Copa Final and were grateful to Courtois for quite heroically keeping them in the contest.

They spent most of the night on the ropes but, via Miranda, they were still gutsy enough to produce the KO punch the instant that the opportunity presented itself.

Diego Simeone wiki edit

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Simeone has taught them many things, he’s added some tactical finesse – but his greatest achievement has been psychological.

From a squad happy enough to coast along in third or fourth position and happy enough not to wave a guillotine blade at Spain’s ancien regime of Real Madrid and Barcelona, the Argentine has turned them into a bunch of bloodthirsty Robespierres.

Nerves at the finish line?

So, from my perspective, the big question to be asked before Saturday evening’s kick off is how much psychological damage has been done by Atleti losing five of the last six points at what should have been a ‘Vive La Revolution!’ moment of the season?

The loss at Levante was understandable enough. Having won at Chelsea and suffered the emotional tsunami of that experience the City of Valencia stadium was a horrible place to have to go and carve out a result.

But there was a general expectation that the champions-elect would swamp Málaga and there was a backwash of disappointment and deflation to discover, post that 1-1 draw last weekend that a single goal would have won them the title given Barcelona’s stalemate at Elche.

I watched the sagging shoulders, the dull, ‘dammit!!’ faces, and the suddenly weary bodies at the end of that Málaga draw, players, Simeone, technical staff and fans – and I thought that there’d been a major over-reaction

For a club so in charge of its emotions and psychology all season I thought that there was a glimpse of self doubt and a lack of ‘know-now’ in terms of that last push to get over the line.

From a bunch of guys who reckoned that a) the title would be won before going to the Camp Nou or b) that if they had to go and win they would and could, it felt as if Atleti had allowed self-doubt to corrode their previously robust confidence.

This should be treatable. A good, thorough working week on the Majadahonda training ground, individual tuition, perhaps a wee night out – there has been sufficient time since the Málaga draw to iron out and psychological kinks. You’d think, at least.

A further question is whether, improbable though it seems, Simeone has having a few flutters. Warrior, yes. Successful, yes. Invincible – no.

It’s vital that, should Atleti go one nil down (Barcelona haven’t taken the lead against these rivals for seven matches, since February 2012) they don’t suddenly get those ‘novice’ nerves which so often prevent ‘underdogs’ from fulfilling their vaunted potential.

Advantage Atletico?

Other than the body language last week, the omens are red and white. Not only do two of the three possible results win Atleti the title they’ve had significantly the better of things this season.

Atleti have the only win of the five games between the sides this term, Atleti have produced three different scorers and two different assist-givers against Barcelona since August.

Barcelona’s only scorer v Simeone’s mob this season, Neymar, won’t start and, realistically, shouldn’t even play at this stage of his injury rehab.

Atleti, at a time when Barcelona continue to look awfully ragged at the back without Piqué, Puyol or Valdés, keep on producing some lovely set plays – and scoring from them. Simeone’s guys at the masters of transferring hard work and planning from the training ground to the battlefield.

Then there’s the final point in terms of psychology. You’d have to forgive the boys in red and white IF they, consciously or otherwise, felt that their final against Real Madrid a week on Saturday is more important.

You’d forgive them if they decided to play speculatively (for a draw) at the Camp Nou and then, having reserved something, go ‘all-out’ in Lisbon against Real Madrid.

You wold forgive them, but would Barça? Tata Martino’s side has been patchy and unreliable due to oscillating form this season – but they’ve shown, to the cost of Madrid, Man City, Ajax, Milan and Villarreal, that when they really want to .. they can.

Mateu Lahoz, easily Spain’s best and most diligent ref, will be in charge. He MAY have a style which allows a Simeone-esque side more liberty with physical play but that’s because he likes the game to flow, not because he promotes brutality.

Barcelona used to be the perfect side to profit from Lahoz – quicker and brighter in how they reacted when an incident looked like a foul but the ref waved play-on.

He gives a premium to those who are quick, talented, who concentrate and love the ‘advantage’ rule.

Even though they’ve been too sluggish in every respect, recently, to draw benefit from his style, Barcelona have nonetheless never lost with Lahoz in charge

One more thought about Barça. They have the psychological impact of all these ‘farewells’ at the Camp Nou. From Tito’s unfair, untimely death through to Victor Valdés slinking away after a private goodbye to this team mates and Carles Puyol retreating with all guns blazing.

Full military honours there.

Valdes and Puyol with European Cup

Do intangibles exist? Can Barcelona, slightly patched together where players’ form, fitness and energy levels are concerned, draw some sort of invincible emotional energy from the facts that Puyol and Valdés are going and Tito has gone forever?

More questions than answers. But a clear cut promise. IF Simeone has done his restorative psychology well, (as well as he’s managed with his squad all season) then Atleti will get their draw and their title.

If he hasn’t, then I suspect that this might prove to be a more vulnerable Atlético than Barcelona have faced in the previous handful of matches this season.

Game on.

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Graham Hunter: ‘Simeone is special enough to lead Atletico past Chelsea’

Recently I was talking to a Chelsea player about the quarter final second leg against Paris St Germain.

The Blues won 2-0, in extremis, to overturn the 3-1 first leg deficit. Laurent Blanc, as is often the case in big games, didn’t know whether to stick or twist. His team turned out a ‘nothing’ performance – neither defending staunchly enough nor posing meaningful threat and putting Chelsea on the back foot.

I offered up the idea that I’d admired Jose Mourinho’s idea of not replacing Samuel Etoo (Oscar went instead) when both Schürrle and Demba Ba were already on and he was introducing Fernando Torres.

Etoo played a small part in the goal which Ba scored and Mourinho, not exactly a guy known for commitment to all-out attack ended up with four strikers in play – just at the moment when risk was needed in order to win the premium of yet another place in the Champions League semi final.

I was put right. I was informed that every single eventuality had been planned for. If Chelsea were 1-0 up at half time such and such was to happen and the players knew it. If they were losing ‘x’ would happen, if they were 3-0 up and coasting ‘y’ would happen. If they were down to ten men then ‘z’ tactics would be employed and everyone would be clear on specifically what would be required of them, individually, in that instance.

Setting that information and that victory aside for a moment what Mourinho and most of his players can draw on, aside from the best up-to-date scouting and analysis, is vast data banks of experience.

For the Portuguese and the bulk of his players the stress, adrenalin, intensity, mood and so on, which are particular to being in the dream situation of needing a win or score draw in 90 minutes at home to reach the final of the greatest-ever football competition, are nothing new.

That’s not the case for Atlético.

Still, I think it’s easy to make a case for Los Colchoneros to go through this tie.

Simeone, his squad, the club execs, the media and the fans are all completely in sync.

They think the same, expect the same things, work/sing/plan with absolute intensity, they show the same levels of naked desire, they all make sacrifices and they are completely unified in the idea that it’s the end, not the means to the end, which matter.

Win pretty, win ugly. But win.

Recognise that theme anyone in SW6? I still think that Atlético are SO reminiscent of Chelsea around 2004/5/6

Full of talent, smart, athletic, brilliantly coached and also brimful of desire.

They’ve got a horse-shoe in their boxing gloves

Just as it was when the young ‘One’ really was ‘special’ it’s great to observe and report on.

Not necessarily aesthetically lovely, not always.

But compelling because we are into basic, eternal human instincts about competing, surviving, winning and evolving.

So, for those reasons, it’s easy to fancy Atlético. An away goal would be an immense boon. Two would put them through. Guaranteed.

They are on an immense unbeaten streak and everyone ‘believes’. The manager is a messianic figure and his word is law.

So many of these things which Mourinho once achieved automatically and Simeone is now proving he has in spades are absolutely NOT the norm in football.

Teams look harmonious, players tell us, tell the media, the manager, tell each other that they are ‘up for it’ that they are ‘ready’ that they ‘understand’ the tactics and the gameplan – but surprsingly often none of it will actually be true.

Men like Mourinho, Ferguson, Ancelotti, Guardiola partly get paid such exorbitant salaries because not only can they come up with the right game plans they can enforce them and get the key players to unify and to believe in what’s required of them. Not just to do it like automatons but to understand and believe.

That genuinely is quite unusual.

More, Simeone has a team which defends all over the pitch. Not only do they press quite well they are rigorously disciplined positionally, they work not in little individual units but in twos and threes. They work for each other.

Atleti also use the ball with cleverness and efficacy. Koke, Arda, Gabi, Sosa, Diego and Filipe Luis all deliver the ball very, very well indeed. Moreover there have been nine different goal-assist givers in the last 13 Atlético matches.

All for one and one for all, no?

But, in my opinion, here’s the rub. Having set them up as a proper ‘team’ it’d be fatuous to suggest that they utterly depend on one man.

The Gift Of No Gabi

However the importance of Gabi’s absence through suspension cannot, I reckon, be overplayed.

He’s Simeone on the pitch. Same brain, same rigour, same win at any cost, same respect from those around him, same ability to produce match winning goals or assists not in mediocre games but big, big moments.

His assist record in the last few weeks has been fabulous, always producing something when Atlético are just, slightly, beginning to look as though mental and physical freshness is at a premium.

He has able deputies in Mario Suarez and Tiago – but Gabi is a horrible loss.

Perhaps this is where Atlético’s greatest test comes. Gabi may not be an experienced Champions League semi final warrior but he might as well be.

He’d have led the troops around him, calmed them down when needed, speeded them up when required – he’d have led by example.

Back to experience. Back to accumulated knowledge. I’m sure the fact that Mourinho admires and wants Diego Costa for next season made Chelsea fans watch the ‘new’ Spain striker closely.

If they don’t watch La Liga regularly perhaps they were underwhelmed. Costa makes and takes chances of his own but he is also, heavily, the product of superb service from Arda, Koke, Gabi, Villa and Filipe.

Close Down Providers and Conquer

Last week Chelsea snuffed out the providers and so the finisher had scraps to feed off.

Ahead of this game Costa said, authoritatively, that Chelsea ‘would be forced to come out and play a bit more because they were at home this time’.

Perhaps. Was that the voice of experience or supposition?

How well briefed are all Simeone’s players about what to expect?

What do do in certain situations. How to react. When to push the pedal to the floor, when to… well, Kenny Rogers covered it best in ‘The Gambler’. Hold ‘em, fold ‘em, walk away .. run.

Are Atlético going to be as well briefed and prepared as Chelsea?

For these reasons I suspect it’ll need Atleti’s best performance of the season in order to go through. They’ve been remarkable these last few years, regular trophy winners and the Europa league has taught them, above all, how to peak in midweek and regularly produce wins, any old how, at the weekend.

Hence their heady Champions League/Liga positions.

But I reckon they’ll be tested to their very limits by an experienced, savvy, hungry and unified Mourinho side.

I think there’s a little bit of value in looking at Atleti set plays. They spend an inordinate amount of time practicing them. They are Spain’s most regular scorers from the dead ball and without Gabi, Koke remains an absolutely wonderful delivery boy when he’s crossing or passing off his right foot.

Raúl Garcia, Godín, Miranda, Costa are all well above average in the air and I’d expect Mark Schwarzer to be properly tested in his timing at coming for crosses.

At a guess I’d have thought that there’s no more than three goals in the match, much more likely two and that for all I’ve bemoaned the absence of Gabi Chelsea may need to score twice in order to meet Real Madrid in Lisbon next month.

Comedy value? The novelty bet? Simeone’s number two, Germán ‘Mono’ Burgos once threatened to re-arrange Mourinho’s features during a particularly heated Clásico.

Burgos is, without too much exaggeration, a character who makes Mourinho appear like Ghandi. If you can get decent odds on Burgos being sent off. Take them. All day long.

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Graham Hunter on how Atletico Madrid are like Chelsea of old, but why Jose Mourinho can take advantage of small margins

Atlético Madrid vs Chelsea, Champions League semi-final (Tuesday, April 22, 19.45)

The neatest way to summarize what Jose Mourinho and Co face in Madrid tonight is that Chelsea are about to endure the most unsettling prospect of facing ‘themselves’.

Atletico are Chelsea of April 2005. Thibaut Courtois is Petr Cech, Diego Costa is Didier Drogba and above all Diego Simeone is Mourinho at his very best.

Little wonder under-pressure Jose wants to repatriate Courtois next season and is well on his way to signing Diego Costa.

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

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Similarities with Chelsea 2005

Back in 2005 the Blues were horribly difficult to defeat and reached this semi-final stage by defeating both Porto and FC Barcelona – just as Atleti have done this season. But the greater similarities are in attitude, system, work ethic, all-for-one-and-one-for-all spirit.

Simeone is a street-tough man who isn’t afraid to admit he relies on his understanding of the Zodiac and horoscopes as part of his man-management techniques

‘Sanitarians need a lot of affection, but if you’re born under Scorpio you respond better to a bit of tough love. My star sign is Taurus – we can be a bit difficult to deal with. We’ll give you our heart and soul but only if you treat us well. If you try to force us to do something against our will, watch out.’

Tease him if you dare

Just like Mourinho used to have the ultimate capacity to achieve, Simeone has brought all his players, reserves too, to the boil at the same time – and kept them simmering all season. It’s one hell of a trick.

Champions League semi finals, Chelsea v Atletico via Graphic News

Simeone’s promise to his president

You could compare him to both Pep Guardiola and Mourinho for his absolute intensity – every minute of every working day. And in his spare time. He’ll often go to the cinema, catch the first 15 minutes but then become utterly overtaken by some new thought on training, or a rival, or the last match and need to walk out so that he can make notes.

Friends and family have tired of asking him whether he enjoyed a television programme, a movie or a concert. Usually he’ll have taken in about five per cent of what they have – because his restless football mind won’t let him alone.

Three trophies ago he took over with Atletico sliding down the table and able to peer over their shoulder at the relegation zone. He told his new president:

‘I’m going to make it unpleasant to play us, teams are going to suffer’.

He did. And they have

To this day his motto is: ‘If your car isn’t quite top notch then you have to find a way to puncture the other guy’s tyres so that you can keep up with him.’

John Terry and Frank Lampard 14/5/2006 00179078

What Terry and Lampard think…

When I spoke to John Terry and Frank Lampard (above in 2006) at Cobham last week and asked them about this tie each man pointed out that the general impression of Chelsea having had an extremely favourable draw in avoiding Real Madrid and Bayern didn’t tally with their views of the Spanish league leaders.

Each of them watches Spanish football and while each is respectful of the team it’s also Diego Simeone’s electric buzz of energy, animation and activity on the touchline which has impressed them.

My words, not theirs, but I think they see a version of Mourinho – just younger and as hungry as the Portuguese was back then.

For those who are trying to size up this match it’s important to point out that often Atletico’s margins are the smallest. Lots of 1-0 and 2-1 wins. An indication of rigour, but also an indication that if Chelsea can ‘do a job’ on them then taking a draw or a one-goal win back to London isn’t utterly impossible.

Diego Costa

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More to Atleti than Costa

However, there’s a great deal to say that’s pro-Atletico. In all 23 Liga and Champions League games at the Calderon this season they’ve conceded just 10 times.

Notwithstanding the eye-catching nature of Courtois’ and Costa’s work this is a team – genuinely a terrific blend of youth, experience, pace, positional play, mental toughness. Will to win.

  • For example, although the headline figure is that Costa (above), potentially Spain’s starting World Cup No9, has 35 goals this season it’s important to note than in Atletico’s last 12 games (since their last defeat) there have been nine different scorers – Costa, Villa, Koke, Raúl Garcia, Gabi, Diego, Godín, Arda Turan and Miranda.
  • In those same games there have been nine individual goal-assist producers – Villa, Filipe Luis, Juanfran, Gabi, Raúl Garcia, Diego Arda, Adrian and Miranda.

Try picking a first goalscorer out of that lot. Atletico have Spain’s best set-play record offensively – they practice remorselessly and very often get it right.

That, allied to the fact that Atleti are noticeably good in the air in both attacking and defensive situations would suggest that conceding free kicks in the last third must be ‘verboten’ for Chelsea.

A little note for those who like in-play, should Atleti get a penalty and Costa is on the field he is likely to continue taking them – despite the fact that he’s missed four of eight this season.

Little details like that could well decide the whole tie and progress to Lisbon.

It’s old Chelsea against new Chelsea. May the better Chelsea win.

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Atletico to push aside Sociedad

Spanish football continues this Sunday with five games taking place in La Liga, in the pick of those second place Atletico Madrid (25/1 La Liga outright) travel to Real Sociedad.

The early kick off on Sunday sees Getafe take on Levante (Getafe 5/6, draw 12/5, Levante 16/5), two sides who currently sit in mid table and will be looking to take three points away from the fixture. The home team come into the game off back to back wins and will be looking to continue in that rich vein of form, although they are still missing top scorer Abdelaziz Barrada, who serves the final game in his suspension. They will have a tough test against Levante, who secured European football last season and took three points off Valencia before the international break.

Bottom of the table Espanyol will welcome Rayo Vallecano (Espanyol 10/11, Draw 5/2, Rayo 11/4) in a fixture that they need to take three points from. The team from Barcelona have started the season poorly and are yet to taste victory so far, so need a bit of luck to turn their fortunes around at this early stage.  They will feel they have a real opportunity to take something away from Rayo, who started this season with two wins but have since failed to pick up a win.

Real Zaragoza will travel to Granada (Granada 10/11, draw 12/5, Zaragoza 3/1), with both managers having to chose from depleted squads. Granada boss Juan Antonio Anquela will be without new signing Antonio Floro Flores, Fran Rico and Hassan Yebda, who are all missing through injury, as well as Yacine Brahimi and Dani Benitez who are both suspended. Likewise, Manolo Jiménez will have to adjust his starting 11 with Aranda, Adam Pinter and Ivan Obradovic all injured alongside Alvaro Gonzalez and Christian Romaric who both miss out through suspension. With both managers having to make a number of changes the quality of football may be affected (Correct score 0-0 15/2).

Struggling Osasuna will take on high flying Real Betis (Osasuna 21/20, Draw 12/5, Real Betis 5/2) at the Estadio El Sadar as they look to get their campaign going. Osasuna have only picked up one win and one draw so far and lie in a woeful 19th place, they will have to be on top of their game if they are to come away from this meeting with anything. Betis sit 4th in the table but after a good start they have tasted defeat twice recently and could be a target for an Osasuna side who will be looking to get among the goals.

The late kick off on Sunday sees Real Sociedad welcome Atletico Madrid (Sociedad 13/5, Draw 5/2, Atletico evens). Diego Simeone’s side are firm favourites for this one and no surprise as they are yet to be beaten this season, after drawing on the opening day they have gone from strength to strength winning every game with the aid of Radamel Falcao, who is the league’s joint top scorer on eight goals. Sociedad are unbeaten at the Estadio Municipal de Anoeta so far with three wins from three and this great home form has helped them to 13th in the table.

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Atletico eye success in Pamplona

After another exciting weekend of La Liga action, Monday sees a game that could be vital to who makes the European places as Atletico Madrid travel to Pamplona to take on Osasuna (Osasuna 9/4, draw 11/5, Atletico 6/5).

Both sides currently sit just outside the European places and will be looking to take three points from their rivals in what is sure to be a thrilling encounter at the Reyno de Navarra.

Once again Osasuna continue to confound the critics and, despite being one of the smallest clubs in the league, are more than holding their own. However, they haven’t won for six games and are currently on the slide after making a superb start to the season.

Their problems have coincided with a bad run of injuries and the Navarrans (11/1 to win 2-1) are like to be without Ion Echaide, Roversio and Ruben Rocha while full-back Damia will miss the game though suspension. However, Jose Luis Mendilibar has built his side on hard work and team spirit and won’t be fazed by so many absentees.

Their key man is likely to be midfielder Javad Nekounam who, after a difficult start to his time in Spain, is now seen as one of the best players in the league. The Iranian cuts an imposing figure in the heart of midfield but his real strength lies in his passing game and his distribution will be vital as his team look to break down the Madrid rearguard.

Once again, despite having one of the best squads in the country, Atletico have failed to deliver the goods on a consistent basis this season but their form has picked up significantly since the appointment of former captain Diego Simeone at the end of 2011.

The Argentine was known for his determined style of play and this is exactly what ‘Los Rojiblancos’ have been missing and, having guided them to two wins from his three league games, he appears to have already stamped his mark on the side.

Atletico (12/1 Europa League outright) have a number of key players suspended for the match with both Diego and Gabi missing out, so there will be even more expected of Columbian striker Radamel Falcao. The talented forward initially struggled to settle into Spanish football following his summer transfer from Porto but has now hit 14 league goals this season and is apparently being linked with a move one of Europe’s premier clubs.

With Osasuna likely to try and play a physical style, Falcao’s ability to hold the ball up and bring others into the game will be vital if his team are to get a result.

Falcao could be the difference in Pamplona and his and Atletico’s extra quality should see the team from the capital through. However, Mendilibar’s team won’t go down easily so expect a superb encounter at the Reyno de Navarra (Atletico 6/1 to win 1-0).

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Atletico no match for Real

It is not too long until the first ‘El Clasico‘ of the La Liga season and both Real Madrid and Barcelona are in action on Saturday night with three points separating the two sides at the top of the table.

And, perhaps surprisingly, that difference is in the favour of the capital side despite them suffering a defeat earlier on this season, although Barcelona remain marginal favourites at 5/6 to win a fourth league title on the bounce, with Real priced at 10/11.

On the face of it, Jose Mourinho’s men would have the trickier of the two matches as they take on city rivals Atletico Madrid at 19:00 GMT, although they do have home advantage at the Santiago Bernabeu – and a rather impressive recent record.

It has been a huge 12 years since Atletico managed to overturn their illustrious city rivals, coming away from the Bernabeu with all three points following a 3-1 win in October 1999, which at the time made it back-to-back wins after victory by the same scoreline at the Vicente Calderon at the end of the previous season.

Two successive draws followed but Real have been dominant in the head-to-head record, winning 15 of the 21 games since their last defeat – and it is hard to see anything changing on Saturday.

Not withstanding the fact that there is a vast difference in the wealth of the two clubs, Real have scored 24 goals in five games at the Bernabeu in La Liga this season with their only blemishes coming on the road, drawing at Racing Santander and losing at Levante.

Their Champions League form has been equally impressive, winning five out of five, and they will go into the match on the back of a 6-2 drubbing of Dinamo Zagreb last Tuesday.

It is hard to see Real being overturned by Atletico at the best of times, particularly with the visitors enduring something of a transition having lost Sergio Aguero and Diego Forlan last summer – so it is no surprise to see Real installed as 1/5 favourites, with Atletico on offer at 12/1 and the draw at 11/2.

That may seem like a massive price on the visitors getting something from a derby game where ‘form goes out of the window’ but Atletico have been awful on the road this year, with just one draw and four defeats from five games.

Los Colchoneros also find it nigh on impossible to find the back of the net with just two goals from those five games, with both coming in the same match, so Real winning to nil has to be considered – last year’s 2-0 home win in this fixture is priced up at 11/2.

Cristiano Ronaldo has been prolific again this season and needs to be considered in the goalscoring betting, having notched 14 in 12 in the Primera Liga this season – although that is reflected in the betting as he is the 9/4 favourite to score first.

It looks as though the pressure will be on Barcelona when they take to the field at 21:00 GMT to keep within three points of the leaders when they take on Getafe – but they are not expected to run in to trouble, priced at 1/5 in the match betting, with the hosts available at 12/1 and the draw at 11/2.

There is not much to say about Barcelona and how good they are and can be, particularly with the world’s best footballer in Lionel Messi (7/4 to open the scoring) in their ranks, but this season they have run into one or two problems on the road.

The Catalan giants remain unbeaten this season but are behind Real in the table because they have suffered four draws, three of which have come on their travels.

Scoring on the road has not been as easy either with eight away goals dwarfed by a huge unanswered 30 at the Nou Camp, with opposing teams’ game plans proving hard to break down.

It is worth noting that although Getafe are lying in 15th place in the table, they have only lost one at home this season – also picking up two wins and three draws – and have proved no easy beats at the Coliseum Alfonso Perez this term.

Messi on his own could make a mockery of the form if he has one of those days, and he is by no means the only talent in the side, but Getafe might be able to do their near-neighbours Real a favour this weekend by replicating their 2007 success.

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