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Graham Hunter: Ronaldo-less Real to kick up a 9/1 winner, Barca to sneak by at 8/1and the best of the rest

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Real Madrid v Real Sociedad, Saturday 3pm

You’d be hard-pressed to find any Real Sociedad supporters who call this their ‘lucky’ season, or regard the last few months with much affection at all.

However the Guinness Book of Records stat that they’ve beaten Real Madrid, Atlético and Barcelona using three different coaches can show up a wee four-leaved clover effect if you look a little closer.

In the second game of the Liga season La Real went 2-0 down at home to Madrid before winning 4-2 – in a match where Cristiano Ronaldo was missing, injured.

By the time Asier Santana succeeded Jagoba Arrasate it was Spanish champions Atlético who were beaten – 2-1 having been behind by a goal.

Further examination is that La Real beat a ten-man team thanks to Guilherme Siquiera’s red card five minutes after half time.

Then, finally, Barcelona are put to the sword. The 1-0 win is David Moyes “happiest day” in football.

David Moyes

But, again, fate intervenes. Luis Enrique drops Leo Messi, Neymar, Dani Alves, Ivan Rakitic and Gerard Piqué all of whom you’d call automatic first team certainties.

Now it’s Madrid away and Ronaldo gets himself sent off so he’ll be missing the return fixture at the Santiago Bernabéu.

A wee hint that La Real are fated to pull off another almighty shock? Compared to all the other wins this would be the earth-shaker.

The Basques haven’t won at the Bernabéu since 2004 and the only player or sub on either of the team sheets from that day who’s even still at his club is Xabi Prieto. In fact the man who won last week’s Basque derbi against Eibar with that bizarre looping header also scored that day.

I suggest backing the 31 year old now if for no other reason than one of the more remarkable statistical scoring anomalies I’ve ever seen. Not prolific, Prieto has nevertheless scored at least three times as many goals against Madrid as against any other team in his long career. A maximum of three against anyone else, nine [in 14 games] against what is theoretically his most difficult opponent in Spain. Ronaldo has tended to be the missing element in Madrid’s defeats this season. Absent for the loss to La Real, benched for two defeats against Atlético. Whether him being out is sufficient to make a slightly tired-looking Madrid lose at home to a side which isn’t capable of many goals needs to be treated with skepticism. Geronimo Rulli has been an absolute diamond for David Moyes since he promoted the young Argentinian keeper but he’ll need to be superb if La Real are to pinch a draw. As will Iñigo Martínez who I suspect is playing for a move to Madrid at the end of the season. Odds against it but football’s a funny old game. 3-1 the European Champions. Benzema [4 in 7 and every one of them at the Bernabéu] loves a goal against the Txuri-Urdin.

  • Graham’s Bet: Real Madrid to win 3-1 at 9/1

Eibar v Atlético Madrid, Saturday 5pm

I’d say that Diego Simeone likes a moan … but he knows where I live.

Still, perhaps he has a case. This trip to the hostile Basque country will be Atlético’s ninth game in January having played eight, won five, lost three [to Barcelona], scored 11 and conceded nine. But I reckon there are other stats which are of equal concern to that narrow +goals tally.

Last season Atleti only saw two reds and 100 yellows in 46 League and Copa matches.

This season, in only 26 League and Copa matches they’ve seen five reds and 89 yellows. Vastly worse discipline.

Gabi [sent off in midweek] is already suspended this weekend for his fifth booking. Diego Godín, suspended for the last two games, returns against Eibar. But, here’s the rub.

At half time against Barcelona Diego Simeone opted not to chase the tie, not to chase the three goals they required in order to save his team’s legs, lungs and potentially save them more disciplinary problems. [The last bit didn’t work].

Why? Because he had to now give priority to the upcoming chances of retaining the league and reaching the Champions League final once again. He knows his players are flagging – mentally and physically. So, what will he do here selection-wise? Next weekend is the Madrid derbi our sixth of the season [Atleti winning 3 so far]. It’s at the Calderón and it’s imperative they win to close the gap at the top. But he has several players one booking away from a suspension against Madrid – Arda, Juanfran, Miranda and Raúl Garcia. It must worry Atleti fans and Atleti backers that their discipline has gone to pot.

Ipurua Municipal Stadium

So, back to his moans. The defeat to Barcelona finished at about 11pm on Wednesday this match kicks off 6pm Saturday. The Argentinian genuinely thought that if it were played on Sunday the extra recuperation for his players could be vital. So, to put faith in them or to back them to drop points?

Mandzukic didn’t play midweek so he must start. Griezmann was withdrawn at half time so ditto. Back either one for a goal. Both teams to score I reckon but Eibar …

This is virgin territory for them. There’s never been a Primera Division meeting between Eibar and Atlético at Ipurua. Two second division meetings yielded a win each – the first for Eibar robbing Atleti of a chance to get back to the top division, the second a 3-0 win starring Luis Aragonés as Atleti coach, Mono Burgos in goal and a very young Fernando Torres up front. Gaizka Garitano, now their coach, played for the Basques that day. Eibar don’t bend down for anyone and even made it tough for Atleti at the Calderón earlier in the season. Manu Del Moral has found the net easily in recent weeks. Worth a look. Okay, the champions might well win this, but it’s a banana-skin fixture.

  • Graham’s Bet: Both teams to score at 6/5

Barcelona v Villarreal,Sunday 8pm

Memories, memories. This has become one of Spain’s great fixtures. Overflowing with football. And the threat that the fluorescent boys will outshine the Blaugrana boys. From spring 2003 to spring 2005 across five matches Villarreal won three times and Barça managed two points out of fifteen. From April 2007 until January 2010, across six meetings, Villarreal won three and Barça only managed five points out of a possible eighteen. However not since mid 2008 when Jon Dahl Tomasson scored the winner have Villarreal taken three points at the Camp Nou. Those are all the stone-cold facts. Now for the coulda-woulda-shoulda.

Camp Nou

At the start of the season the Yellow Submarine did everything but torpedo Barcelona. They made more, better quality chances and Luis Enrique’s fledgling team got off the hook – particularly when Messi made the late winner for young Sandro.

Lumps were kicked out of some Barcelona players in midweek so you’d expect Xavi to start [might well be worth an anytime goal], perhaps Pedro too. Villarreal play such quick, attacking football that them scoring should be no shock – perm from Cheyshev, Musacchio and Vietto. But Barcelona to win … just. 2-1

  • Graham’s Bet: Barcelona to win 2-1 at 8/1

Málaga v Valencia, Monday 7.45pm

The seaside team against the see-saw team. Following their barnstorming win over Sevilla last week [as predicted] the emphasis is on Valencia to rid themselves of their biggest current flaw. Particularly away from home a step forward always seems to be followed by two backwards. For example, Valencia dismantle Spanish champions Atlético then lose, heavily, to Deportivo La Coruña who’ve recently shipped in eight goals at home to Madrid.

They give the the excellent Villarreal a bit of a doing but then take one point out of nine against Athletic, Levante and Barcelona. Even before crashing out of the Cup, Valencia win at Rayo but then concede four at home to the same team and only just manage to claw their way back into the tie having trailed 5-3 at home. Is it their mentality? Is it the fact that this is an almost wholly new team constructed at high speed this summer? They, unlike Cup quarter finalists Málaga, have had a free week to prepare and should be firing on all cylinders. As for other business, things could barely be better.

Getafe have stumped up the €600k they owed Los Che, Antonio Barragán and Pablo Piatti are both nearly fit again and Paco Alcácer just signed a new deal until 2020. This is a tie they simply must win and they have fourteen Liga scorers to choose from. But look to Parejo in the best scoring form of his career, Alcácer and Negredo to assure that.

Javi Gracia

As for Málaga their elimination at Athletic in the Cup leaves a clear stat emerging. Having scored in every single match since September Javi Gracia’s team have now failed to score in three of their last four matches. In La Liga Samuel Garcia and Amrabat are joint top scorers with just four. Gracia’s team look skilled, as if they have an ‘identity’ but they also look flat and short on gas.

This is a match which won’t be easy for Los Che, particularly given their weak away record, but it’s also one they MUST win if they are to remain credible challengers to quality for the Champions League next seasons. I take them to do that. 0-2

  • Graham’s Bet: Valencia to win 2-0 at 12/1 
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Graham Hunter’s La Liga Preview: The first El Clasico of the season heralds the return of Suarez and the best of the rest

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Real Madrid v Barcelona Saturday 5pm

Given that Barcelona won only 12 times in 74 years away to Real Madrid until 2003 it will come as a shock to the unwary, and the stuff of nightmares to Florentino Pérez, that Madrid have won only five of the last 17 Clásicos at the Bernabéu.

Without wishing to ignore Ronaldinho or Etoo, this is testimony to what the era of Xavi, Iniesta, Puyol, Victor Valdés Messi and Piqué has been like. Strong, talented, unquenchably hungry. But also, centrally, an era where Barcelona have largely dominated possession and Madrid, if their opponents are on form, become positionally ragged.

It’s not the end, yet, but it’s the beginning of the end. Valdés and Puyol are gone. A few weeks ago Xavi would have been an outsider to start based on Luis Enrique’s extremely sparing use of the midfielder. Piqué admitted to me this week that he’s facing the biggest challenge of his career right now. The challenge to keep his place.

Real Madrid lose at home to Barcelona - 2005

These last ten years have seen 33 Clasicos – in La Liga, La Copa, the Supercopa and the Chamipons League. At the Santiago Bernabeu, at the Camp Nou, at La Mestalla.

These behemoth matches have gifted us 112 goals – almost three and a half per game.

At which point I think it’s fair to look at the credentials of the two sides as they approach this particular Clásico. In theory it’s irresistable force v immoveable object.

Madrid [for which read Cristiano Ronaldo] are scoring at an unparalleled rate. Forty three times this season they’ve hit the net [all comps] while ‘immoveable’ Barça [for which read Claudio Bravo] have yet to concede a goal in La Liga.

Put it all together and the ten year, 112 goal stat tells you that more often it’s the force which is irresistible and the object which is moveable. There have only been ten clean sheets in the last 33 meetings between the sides [in fact only 7 scoreless draws since 1928, and there will NOT be one on Saturday]

Which somewhat puts the focus on one of the battles featuring a Clasico debutant this weekend. Claudio Bravo. Excellent so far this season he’s been only partly responsible for the zero goals conceded given that Barcelona have been pressing like Italian farmers during the olive harvest. But he’s produced several key saves.
Something which has been in short supply in his previous meetings with either Real Madrid or Ronaldo.

A Bravo Decision

Claudio Bravo's record versus Real Madrid

Since his debut in 2006 Bravo has:
Played Madrid ten times.
LOST nine
CONCEDED thirty
CONCEDED AWAY fourteen
CONCEDED TO CR7 ten goals in six meetings
WON never.

Doesn’t mean that the horrific run can’t end now that he’s with Barcelona .. but it’s a nasty, nagging thought to carry with you into enemy territory.
His tormentor, Ronaldo took eleven games to score two goals v Barça … and has eleven in thirteen thereafter.

Does Suárez start. Instinct says yes. Football’s conservatism tells you no. The Barcelona players all say he’s ripping it up in training. Luis Enrique seems enchanted with him. He scored two against England in his penultimate competitive match not long after having a surgeon hack about in his knee. He’s remarkable.

But for how long would he last, stamina-wise? Did Pedro do enough against Ajax to correct the impression that he’s been out of form this season.

For Madrid how much does Bale’s absence matter? It’s remarkable that the only Clásico they won last season, the Cup final, was without Ronaldo. That Bale gallop and goal will live long in the memory but won’t be repeated this weekend.

Lionel Messi beats Xabo Alonso

Messi ripped Madrid up again last season – scoring two penalties. An art at which he’s looked increasingly jittery since. Iniesta got the other goal in that stunning 3-4 Barcelona win – he, too, has had an underwhelming season until playing blisteringly well against Ajax.

Worth backing ‘anytime’ are Isco, in his best form at Madrid and very capable of scoring, Benzema who had two in this fixture last season, laid on the opening goal in the Cup final and rocketed a shot off the bar in the Camp Nou Clásico, and Neymar.

In the league last season, only he had as much influence as Messi in Clásicos scoring one, making two and winning a penalty. This season he’s been muscular, quick and much more focussed.

For the ‘over three goals’ mob, I agree. Final score 2-2, Neymar and Benzema, Messi and Isco to feature on the scoresheet.

  • Real Madrid 7/5, Barcelona 15/8, Draw 5/2: Bet Now

Valencia v Elche, Saturday 7pm

Right, quiz question. You are betting in play, Elche get a penalty against Valencia – what’s gonna happen?

First of all, so long as he’s not been injured or red carded Edu Albacar will take it. His career stat is thirteen out of thirteen converted. “I know there’s likely to be a day when I miss but I want to be able to retire with the boast that I scored every penalty I took”.

In this instance there’s a little bit more of the old ‘irresistable force, immoveable object’.

Diego Alves, recalled to the Brazil squad this week, is back for Valencia having missed the defeat in la Coruña with gastroenteritis. Alves has saved 16 of the 35 penalties he’s faced in Spanish football. Taking into account the couple which have also gone wide or hit the woodwork the stats say that if you face Alves it’s about 50/50 whether you score or not.

Alvaro Negredo is fit again but only makes the bench. Valencia missed their young Portuguese midfielder André Gomes dramatically in that loss to Depo and his return should be influential. Each team won the home version of this match last season – Valencia will do so again this.

  • Valencia 4/11, Elche 17/2, Draw 7/2: Bet Now

Sevilla v Villarreal, Sunday 6pm

Last time these two teams met here there was a bit of the ‘after you Claude’ feel to the match. Sevilla had the Europa League final in view and Villarreal just needed one point to clinch a return to Uefa competition in their first season after promotion back to La Liga. There was pretty football but few chances, almost no tackles and not a single booking – after the previous two encounters had yielded fifteen yellows and two reds.

Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan
Europe was on the agenda this week and it might give the narrowest edge to a strong Villarreal away performance. They were at home while thrashing Zurich 4-1 while Sevilla had to fight out a draining 0-0 draw at Standard Liege. The Yellow Submarine more rested as a result – it’s a narrow call. Both Mbia, who should start, and Kevin Gameiro, who’s still finding match tempo after five months out but who should come on in the second half [he has a goal and a shot off the post in his two comeback matches] look nice for a ‘goal anytime’. For Villarreal Gio Dos Santos is the obvious candidate for a goal against the club who helped him kickstart his career after his nightmare at Spurs. Bruno Soriano too, ‘who should definitely be playing for Spain’ according to his manager, Marcelino, is in fine form and might be worth a punt.

  • Sevilla 21/20, Villareal 5/2, Draw 5/2: Bet Now

Getafe v Atlético Madrid, Sunday 8pm

In theory this should be meat and drink to the Spanish champions. Off the back of potentially their best performance of the season, even including two wins over Madrid, and a short trundle across the Spanish capital to face a team which is neither their footballing nor their physical equal. But Geta’s aggressive Romanian coach Cosmin ‘Don’t You Dare Take A Bad Performance Back Into MY Dressing Rom’ Contra doesn’t agree with me.

“They are under the pressure of having to win all the time to fight to retain their title. “We just want to make it tough for the champions. “See if they have a bad day and we have a good one. “They played differently last season, they’ve brought in 12 new guys and they are still adapting. “They aren’t the same as they were last year”.

Which is just as well given that Getafe lost 9-0 on aggregate to Atleti last year.

For los Rojiblancos the fact that Griezmann finally got a goal having hit the bar, the post, defenders and some invisible forcefield for weeks when shooting at goal might release some of his anxiety and you’d not bet against him adding another. If after his two cracking goals in a minute for Geta to win at the Anoeta on Monday you fancy Abdoul Yoda to repeat the feat just remember that two is the magic number. The most he’s ever scored in a season for Servette Sion or Astra Giurgiu before moving to Madrid. In fact he has ten in all matches since July 2008. So good luck with that.

  • Getafe 6/1, Atletico Madrid 8/15, Draw 11/4: Bet Now

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Best 5 transfers of the summer so far

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There has been plenty of transfer activity already in the Premier League summer transfer window, here we pick out our top five deals done so far.

1. Park Ji-Sung (Manchester United to QPR, undisclosed)

Park was always a big-game player for Manchester United and often the ‘go-to’ man for Sir Alex Ferguson when he wanted someone to step up to the plate and attack from midfield. He won four Premier League titles, three League Cups and the Champions League during his time at Old Trafford and appears to be a very astute, and surprise, signing by Mark Hughes.

Officially, the fee is undisclosed but reports say the Hoops (9/2 – To be relegated) have only paid £2million for the South Korean and that could well be the bargain buy of the summer.

2. Hugo Rodellaga (Free agent to Fulham)

Rodallega’s release by Wigan came as somewhat of a surprise, although it is probably more a case of the Colombia international wanting to move on rather than Roberto Martinez deciding the striker was surplus to requirements at the DW Stadium.

While the 24-year-old can be inconsistent, he can also be devastating on his day and his overall goalscoring record is good despite just finding the net three times for Latics last season.

Martin Jol may have brought Rodallega in as a replacement for Clint Dempsey, who is set to leave the Cottage this summer, and he has landed himself an established Premier League forward who can hit double figues – or more – if he stays fit and gets the right support (Fulham 8/1 – to be relegated).

3. Olivier Giroud (Montpellier to Arsenal, undisclosed)

Arsene Wenger has failed with some big summer purchases in recent years – take Marouane Chamakh for example – but this deal should be one that comes off.

The 25-year-old notched 21 goals in 36 league appearances to help Montpellier claim their first Ligue 1 title last season and, while he is not in Robin van Persie’s class yet, he is highly-rated and a skilful addition to the Gunners frontline.

It is another officially undisclosed transfer but it is thought Wenger has paid in the region of £13million which may seem a tad pricey, but only if he doesn’t go on to fulfil his undoubted potential in the next few seasons at the Emirates (Arsenal 4/9 – Top 4 Finish).

4 – Steven Naismith (Rangers to Everton)

This transfer is still awaiting international clearance due to the ongoing financial wrangling at newco Rangers but Everton (18/1 – Top 4 finish) should eventually profit from another piece of apparent clever trading by David Moyes at Goodison Park.

Naismith has regularly been linked with a move south to the Premier League in recent years and now he has landed at probably the best club for him to make an impact. Under Moyes’ guidance the Scotland international can flourish and re-engage his old Rangers partnership with another similarly astute signing, Nikica Jelavic, in the new campaign.

5 – Pavel Pogrebnyak (Free agent to Reading)

The Royals (2/1 – Top Promoted Team) have bought well so far this summer as they hope to stay in the Premier League and this could end up being one of the deals of the transfer window.

The Russia international, who was part of his country’s Euro 2012 squad, impressed at Fulham while on loan at the end of last season, scoring six goals in just 12 games and, in the process, became the quickest player to reach five goals in Premier League history.

He is strong, powerful and clearly has an eye for goal so Brian McDermott’s side’s survival this season may just be dependant on him coming up with the goods.

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Is La Liga the best?

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It has been a bruising week for Spain’s big two, with Real Madrid and Barcelona crashing out of the Champions League semi-finals to Bayern Munich and Chelsea respectively. But with Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid setting up an all-Spanish Europa League final this week, taking some notable scalps on the way, is Spain’s top flight the strongest league in Europe?

Chelsea (7/4 to win the Champions League) turned in a heroic performance at the Nou Camp on Tuesday to secure a 3-2 aggregate win and depose the reigning European champions Barca.

Pep Guardiola’s side has been labelled one of the greatest ever sides in the modern game and were highly fancied to retain the title. But the defeat on Tuesday appeared to be a seminal moment, with Guardiola quitting his post on Friday after four years in charge. Rebuilding may now be needed in Cataluna.

The prospect of playing his old side Chelsea in the final was an enticing one for Real Madrid boss Jose Mourinho, and all seemed to be going to plan when Cristiano Ronaldo’s double put them 3-2 ahead on aggregate in the early stages of the second leg at the Bernabeu on Wednesday.

However, Arjen Robben – another Chelsea old-boy – scored from the penalty spot to level a game that went all the way to penalties, with the German side progressing 3-1 on spot kicks.

The double defeat of Spain’s top two gave further ammunition to those who claim the Spanish league should not be considered the best on the continent, with the all-action Premier League often touted as the best.

The critics, while acknowledging the immense talent in both the Real and Barca squads, accuse La Liga of being too top heavy in favour of the duo. With 26 points separating them from the rest, that argument carries some weight.

However, Chelsea aside, it needs to be pointed out that both Manchester City and Manchester United failed to get out the Champions League group stages, while Arsenal lost in the first knock-out round to AC Milan, who promptly lost to Barcelona.

Then if you look at the Europa League final, where Bilbao take on Atletico Madrid, rumours of La Liga’s demise may be greatly exaggerated. Marcelo Bielsa’s Bilbao (10/11 to lift the Europa League) are a whopping 43 points behind Real Madrid in the table in sixth place.

But their run to the Europa League final in Bucharest took in a last-16 clash with Premier League Champions Manchester United.

England’s supposed best side (4/9 Premier League Outright) were completely dismantled by their Basque opponents, Fernando Llorente particularly impressive in a 5-3 aggregate victory.

Madrid, level on points with Bilbao, have reached their second Europa League final in three years, beating high-flying Valencia and Italian side Lazio – fourth in Serie A – along the way.

With England’s other Europa League representatives – Tottenham, Stoke, Fulham and Birmingham – all falling short, three at the initial group stages, La Liga can justifiably argue it has the strength in depth to compete in both domestic in European competition.

To further bang La Liga’s drum, why not look at the international odds? With reigning world and European Champions Spain 3/1 favourites to win Euro 2012, with manager-less and seemingly rudderless England priced at 9/1.

The reign of Spain may be continuing for some time yet.

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Best five bets this weekend

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The weekend is rapidly approaching with a full Premier League progrmme, plus plenty more sporting action to get stuck into. Betting opportunities are wide and varied and we will have a look at some of the best bets that could help boost the bank balance.

- Fulham to beat Aston Villa

These two sides have spent the majority of the season in the wrong half of the table but there are signs of improvement in both camps. Villa’s capture of Darren Bent has clearly given the Midlanders a shot in the arm, while Andy Johnson;s return for the Cottagers increases their goal threat. The duo are separated by just one point and both could yet be pulled into the relegation dog fight but, with sides below them struggling for consistency,  they should both escape the drop this term. Fulham have looked better than results suggest and they are now starting to reap the rewards, with 10 points from a possible 15, and are tipped to take this one by the odd goal at Villa Park.

Odds: Fulham 11/4 to win

- Liverpool to beat Chelsea

Three of the Premier League’s January signings scored on their debut, with Robbie Keane (West Ham), Luis Suarez (Liverpool) and Daniel Sturridge (Bolton) all on target on Wednesday night. But it is the fixture on Sunday that immediately catches the eye as Fernando Torres is set to make his Blues debut against the side he left just six days earlier. The Spain international has not enjoyed his best season but had started to show glimpses of his undoubted talent prior to jumping ship at Anfield. But the Reds have won three in a row and beat Chelsea earlier in the campaign and, with the confidence gained from reaching the giddy heights of seventh in the table they are tipped to take all three points in west London.

Odds: Liverpool 9/2 to beat Chelsea

- Newcastle to draw with Arsenal

The Magpies’ faithful are still reeling from the departure of local hero Andy Carroll and the fact that nobody was brought in to replace him. With Shola Ameobi now out injured, Alan Pardew’s striking options are limited to say the least. The Geordies have already banked 30 points this term but will need to find goals from somewhere to reach the ‘magic’ 40 which normally keeps a club in the top flight. With that in mind, it would be no surprise if Pardew sets out to get just a point right from the start against the bigger clubs and Arsenal certainly fall into that category. It could be a case of ‘all hands to the pump’ for the home side but they are tipped to hang on for a draw.

Odds: Draw 5/2

- Blackpool to beat Everton

The Seasiders have been the surprise team of the season to date with 28 points from their first 24 games but have found it tough going since the turn of the year and have taken just one point from their last five games. But Everton have not fared much better with five from 15 and they are still below Ian Holloway’s side in the standings. Games involving Blackpool rarely fail to excite and they continue to entertain despite slipping down the table. This one has all the hallmarks of a cracking match-up with the away side a great price to hang on for the win in a high-scoring encounter at Goodison Park.

Odds: Blackpool 6/1 to win

- England to beat Australia 7th ODI

It has been a woeful display by England in the one-dayers and they deserve to be 5-1 behind in the series but this final encounter between the two old enemies gives Andrew Strauss?s men a chance to end what had been a highly-successful tour up until he start of the 50-over contests on a high. They are not as bad as the scoreline suggests and will surely lift themselves for one final push, with Australia now also suffering with injuries, as players on both sides continue to drop like flies.

Odds: England 5/6 to beat Australia.

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Tuesday’s EPL best bets

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There are a full set of fixtures in the Premier League in midweek, with four matches taking place on Tuesday evening, and here is a look at the pick of the betting (Premier League outright and match betting).

Arsenal v Everton

Everton have a good record against the title chasing sides away from home this season having drawn at Chelsea and beaten Manchester City at Eastlands. However, Arsenal are already five points behind leaders Manchester United in the standings and know they cannot afford to slip up against the Toffees.

Arsenal won 2-1 at Goodison Park back in November and will be buoyed by the fact that Everton have a particularly poor record when playing the north London side away from home. Arsenal are also the form team coming into this fixture, having won their last five games in all competitions.

Robin van Persie has spearheaded this run having scored six goals in his last four appearances. He has also scored four goals in six games against Everton so get on him to score 2 or more at 4/1.

Sunderland v Chelsea

Sunderland provided one of the shocks of the season by beating Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge in November and they can push the Blues close at the Stadium of Light on Tuesday.

The defeat started Chelsea’s poor run of form but they have won their last two Premier League games to break this hoodoo. They have only won one of their last six on the road but this was a 4-0 mauling of Bolton, which suggests their troubles are now behind them.

Chelsea will be aiming to get back in the title race but Sunderland have top-six aspirations and will be hoping to consolidate their position of sixth in the standings. The Black Cats have only lost one of their 12 league games at The Stadium of Light this season and they are more than capable of picking up a draw (11/4) in this one.

Man Utd v Aston Villa

Aston Villa may be in resurgent form – and they may have won at Old Trafford last season – but don’t expect history to repeat itself this time around.

United have been almost unstoppable this season and are yet to succumb to defeat in the league. They will be searching for a ninth straight Premier League win at home and with Dimitar Berbatov having scored five goals in his last two league games, the Bulgarian poses a huge threat to Villa’s backline (Berbatov 9/2 – 2 or More goals).

Villa’s resurgence has corresponded with the arrival of Darren Bent and Jean Makoun, and they will be searching for their fourth successive victory in all competitions. Gabriel Agbonlahor has scored in three of his last four league matches against United and so 12/1 in the enhanced goalscorer market is definitely worth a nibble.

Villa and United drew 2-2 at Villa Park earlier in the season, with United needing two late goals to secure a point.

United have also won their last two games, against Blackpool and Southampton, despite trailing at half-time and with Villa’s new prowess in front of goal, this could happen a third time. Back Villa/United in the HT/FT market at 28/1.

West Brom v Wigan

This is a vital relegation battle at The Hawthorns as Wigan will aim to draw level on points with the Baggies at the bottom of the table.

West Brom are just three points off the bottom three after a run of six defeats in seven league games but they have won five of their 12 home games in the top flight this season and this could prove to be the difference.

The Baggies’ problems have been in defence – they have the joint-worst record in the league and have only kept one clean sheet all season – but Wigan have only scored eight times in 11 away games in the Premier League.

The signing of Carlos Vela on loan until the end of the season could be crucial for the Baggies’ chances of survival and he will be desperate to impress on his West Brom debut. He could act as a good foil for Peter Odemwingie so back him at 9/2 in the Enhanced First Goalscorer market.

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Best football bets this weekend…

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Bet on the Premier LeagueChelsea will be glad to get Michael Essien back from suspension and John Terry back after injury ahead of their clash with Everton, but don’t expect a glut of goals at Stamford Bridge (Everton 7/1 to beat Chelsea).

The Blues have not scored more than one Premier League goal in a match since the end of October, despite having Nicolas Anelka and Didier Drogba available to them throughout the intervening time.

Just two goals in five matches tells its own story about Chelsea’s woes and it’s hard to see them suddenly waking up in front of goal against David Moyes’ disciplined Everton.

This one looks like a low-scoring draw or a Chelsea win and it may be prudent to back the half-time draw, available at 7/5.

Wolves stunned Sunderland with their comeback to grab the points at Molineux last week but students of their form would not have been too shocked – Mick McCarthy’s men are strong finishers.

Wolves have scored the last goal in each of their last three matches, and four of their last six, which would have been five but for Park Ji-sung’s stoppage time winner at Old Trafford.

The problem Wolves have got is that they keep conceding the first goal, which requires them to push to the end, but the 4/7 about Blackburn netting the opener this weekend is not as rewarding as the 9/5 for Wolves to score last.

Stoke City (6/4) are in terrific form and ought to be worth backing to continue their run away to depleted Wigan Athletic.

West Brom and Newcastle are both on 19 points but the Baggies are maintaining their form much better than the Magpies ahead of Saturday’s meeting at the Hawthorns.

Last week’s stunning 4-1 win over Everton came after a home defeat to Stoke which they had dominated whereas Newcastle needed an early gift from Chelsea to hang on for a point on Sunday.

West Brom rested key players in midweek and should be able to make an early breakthrough against Newcastle, who are set to field Sol Campbell and Steven Taylor in central defence.

Peter Odemwingie (6/1) and Chris Brunt are stand-out options in totesport.com’s Enhanced First Goalscorer betting.

The Nigerian, who played 90 minutes at Goodison last week, is fully fit again and could give Campbell problems with his movement.

Three of his four Premier League goals this season have been the first in the match. Brunt is playing well and scored at Everton last week, so could be a worthwhile punt to follow up with a goal anytime in the match – at 9/4.

West Ham’s improvement continues after two wins in a week and they look value to make it a hat-trick by stunning Sunderland at the Stadium of Light – as they did in the Carling Cup back in October (10/3 to win).

The appointment fo Wally Downes to their backroom staff has helped their defending already, although this match looks like it is destined to see both teams getting on the scoresheet (5/6).

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Ten best football bets this weekend

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There have been some big-price winners in the Premier League in recent times and, with another weekend of football upon us, it is time to look for some more value, starting at Villa Park (draw 23/10).

Arsenal will still be smarting from last weekend’s 3-2 defeat to Tottenham and the midweek reverse at Braga but Villa have already held both Chelsea and Manchester United at home and will not fear Arsene Wenger’s men, despite a lack of fit strikers at the club.

Bolton have impressed at home, scoring 15 goals already, while Blackpool have hit 10 on their travels and appear determined to attack their way to Premier League safety. Four or more goals in this one (11/8) could be worth a punt.

Manchester United keep finding a way to win and, with Wayne Rooney back in the side, they should be too good for an improved Blackburn side. A win by the popular score of 2-0 looks a tasty price at 11/2, with Rovers very rarely getting a real spanking in the top flight.

Manchester City showed what they can do when it all clicks into place with last week’s 4-1 drubbing of Fulham but Saturday’s opponents, Stoke City, have shown great resilience in recent times, with three consecutive victories seeing them rise to eighth place in the table. Tony Pulis will fancy his side’s chances but the draw at 11/5 looks a real eye-catcher for this fixture.

West Ham United and Wigan are both desperately in need of points from their clash in the East End but, with so much at stake, this must be the draw banker of the weekend (9/4). The Hammers have won only once at home and the Latics only once on their travels, so stalemate should be the order of the day at Upton Park.

Sunderland’s recent form has seen boss Steve Bruce talk about getting into Europe and they will need to win games against the likes of Wolves if they are to achieve this. But the Black Cats do not win many away from the Stadium of Light and this could finally be the weekend when Wolves’ luck changes. Victory over the men from the North East is an inviting 7/5.

Chelsea would expect to travel to St James’ Park and beat Newcastle eight times out of 10 but not in their current form. Carlo Ancelotti’s men confirmed their current malaise with a lacklustre performance in midweek in the Champions League and the Magpies should be able to hold the champions to a draw on Sunday (13/5).

Liverpool have been going in the wrong direction in recent weeks after a mini-revival, despite last week’s 3-0 victory over basement boys West Ham. They can expect no favours from an in-form Tottenham side on Sunday and Tottenham to win to nil (11/5) could be worth a punt as the Reds have scored just four goals away from Anfield this term.

The Championship sees top play second with Cardiff travelling to Loftus Road to face QPR. Rangers have been draw specialists in recent times and a stalemate in west London could be worth looking at, with neither club prepared to give ground in the race for the title (draw 23/10).

Finally, Crystal Palace entertain Doncaster and could be good value to get all three points (13/8) as they have won four games at Selhurst Park this season. The Eagles’ away form has been the problem – with seven defeats already – but they are tipped to send Donny back up the M1 empty handed on Saturday evening.

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10 best midweek football bets

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Tottenham can justify favouritism against travel-sick Sunderland at White Hart Lane in the Premier League on Tuesday. The north Londoners have only lost one at home, while Sunderland are awful on their travels (4/7 Tottenham 14/5 draw 5/1 Sunderland – match betting).

The Black Cats got hammered 5-1 at Newcastle on their most recent jaunt, have won just once at the Lane in the last 26 years and have won only one of their last 23 away games – plus there is no Darren Bent.

2) Stoke may be relieved to be back at the Britannia on Tuesday night but come against a bogey side in Birmingham City, who have yet to win away this season. However, they are on a seven-match unbeaten streak against the Potters and have not conceded a goal in that time. (Birmingham clean sheet 3/1 and Blues 7/10 +1 Handicap – match betting).

3) The knives have been out for Manchester City (17/10 to win) boss Roberto Mancini after suffering three successive defeats but are a different proposition at home, having beaten Chelsea earlier in the season and look good value to get the better of Manchester United, who have won only once away, in the derby.

4) Liverpool (8/11 in the match betting) have turned a corner with four successive wins in all competitions, including a 2-0 win over champions Chelsea with Fernando Torres (7/2 Enhanced First Goalscorer) back among the goals, and should take care of business against an inconsistent Wigan side, which has won just once at the DW Stadium so far this season.

5) The odds will not be great, granted, but a double on Celtic and Rangers (0.97/1) to both win is always a wise move. On Wednesday, the Old Firm go head to head against the Edinburgh clubs, with Rangers at home to Hibs and Celtic at Hearts. The Bhoys will be in ultra-confident mood following the ridiculous 9-0 drubbing of Aberdeen over the weekend while Rangers, top of the league, will have too much for Colin Calderwood’s side.

6) Turning to the Championship, Leeds (4/5 – match betting) entertain struggling Hull at Elland Road tonight and will surely continue their pursuit of the top six with a win over the Tigers, who have not won a league match in seven now. Expect that miserable run to continue despite boss Nigel Pearson’s best efforts to stop the rot this evening.

7) Without a victory in three league games, Burnley (10/11 – match betting) host Doncaster and should have too much for Rovers at Turf Moor. The Clarets have lost just once at home so far this season – albeit a 4-0 thumping against Reading – and, with Doncaster without key striker Billy Sharp, the visitors strike threat has been nullified significantly.

8) Nottingham Forest against Coventry at the City Ground is a midlands derby of sorts and, despite the Sky Blues going well in fifth, a victory for the home side is a decent bet here (4/5 – match betting). Forest are the Championship’s draw specialists, having been held eight times already this season, and must put an end to that run soon as they look to preserve a proud home league record – they have not lost at the City Ground in the league since September 2009.

9) Preston are desperate for a win when they take on fellow strugglers Barnsley on Tuesday and would be worth backing at 21/20 as they go in search of just their second three points in seven games.

10) Finally, Leicester, under the astute guidance of former England chief Sven Goran Eriksson, have been making great strides of late and will be fired up for a home clash against Sheffield United. The Foxes have chalked up successive victories over Preston and Barnsley in their last two games, without conceding a goal, and another narrow win (correct score – 1-0 to Leicester – 11/2) is predicted on Wednesday.

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10 Best Football Bets This Weekend

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1) Bolton to continue their great run at home against Spurs and upset the midweek Champions League winners, who will not like it up ‘em (Bolton 19/10 to win)

2) Fulham have lost only once at home and can take the three points against Aston Villa, who have no fit strikers and have already lost four on their travels.

3) Sunderland to bounce back from their 5-1 mauling at Newcastle when they return to familiar surroundings to take on poor travellers Stoke.

4) The loan signing of David Healy can help Doncaster Rovers (Evens in the match betting) continue their impressive home form against Millwall (13/5 to win, 23/10 the draw).
5) Leicester have also delved into the loanmarket and the arrivals of Darius Vassell and Curtis Davies can earn the win at Barnsley.

6) In a real relegation battle, the last side Preston want to take on is Bristol City as the Robins have lost only one of the last 25 matches against North End.

7) Cristiano Ronaldo is on fire at the moment, scoring 10 goals in his last four games in the Primera Liga, and the former Manchester United ace can lead Real to glory in the Madrid derby.

8) Bayern Munich have turned a corner since their defeat to league leaders Borussia Dortmund and can continue their unbeaten run, winning four of the last five, against basement outfit Borussia Monchengladbach.

9) Schalke 04 have endured a disappointing start to the campaign but the side that finished second last year can still call on the likes of Raul and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and should justify favouritism against Bundesliga new boys St Pauli.

10) Bristol Rovers have made a solid start to their League One campaign and can be backed at 10/11 to prevent an FA Cup shock at Darlington, who have already lost three at home and lie mid-table in the Conference.

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