From that auspicious day until this he has never lost to Atlético Madrid in a game when he’s been in the starting XI.

The anomaly is that Saint Iker’s debut in a derby came when Andoni Bizarri was sent off and the young Madrileño came on, in Autumn 1999, with the score already 3-1 to Aleti.

A defeat – but his only one against Los Rojiblancos in this brilliant, trophy-laden career of his.

Now clearly there were other factors. Raúl at his peak – ditto Ronaldo, Cristiano Ronaldo, Zidane, Luis Figo, Guti, Roberto Carlos, Ruud Van Nistelrooy. The list of thorns in Atleti’s side is long.

But Casillas gradually became kryptonite to his neighbours. The fact that he has a record of 26 straight city derbies without defeat is pretty remarkable.

What I think is still more tantalizing, in light of the Champions League final in Lisbon, is that Atlético have rid themselves of their ‘Madriditis’, not having won a derby from 1999-2013, with consecutive victories – last season’s Copa final and the first league meeting of this season.

But both those wins were registered when Casillas was on the bench and Diego Lopez the first choice keeper.

Back on the Cas’

As soon as Casillas returned against Los Colchoneros, in the Copa semi final this season, not only did Madrid re-establish their stranglehold by knocking their neighbours out they did so by scoring five times … and not conceding once.

Sometimes a player can have an influence which is exponentially greater than his role should allow.

Casillas is a fine keeper (he’s won the World Cup and the European Championship, this will be his 142nd Champions League match, he’s won this competition twice and he has the best win ratio in the history of international football – 112 wins in 153 matches)

But he’s also made of the winning stuff. He’s not utterly nerveless but he does undergo a kind of transformation in match-defining moments – when his blood turns to ice.

Perhaps he earns some of his ‘luck’ via hard work but what’s undeniable is that beyond the saves he makes thanks to athleticism, hard practice, experience, lightning reactions he does appear to produce moments which underline his ‘San’ Iker (Saint Iker) nickname here in Spain.

We are fortunate to be watching a game in which the guy who I think is going to be the world’s dominant keeper for years to come is defending the other end.

Triple A – Above Average Atletico

Diego Simeone’s impact on Atlético has been almost immeasurable.
The players feel taller, more handsome, smarter and wittier. That’s the Simeone effect. Average players become good, good become great … one day he may even have the chance to show that he can make a great player the very best.

For all the importance of Diego Costa, Gabi, Koke and Diego Godín, Simeone has been the most important factor in Atlético’s arrival as a genuine player on the European scene.

No Court’ Jester

However in terms of having the beating of Real Madrid there’s a right good case to argue that Courtois is the only player at the Calderón who has had the same value.

Football moves so fast that, to some, the Copa Del Rey final last May might have edged out of the memory slightly. However despite Atleti winning, despite the glorious goal which Radamel Falcao set up for Costa to break through and score …. Madrid absolutely battered their neighbours that night.

Courtois was superhuman. No. Way. Should. He. Have. Kept. Madrid. Out.

Once Ronaldo headed Los Blancos in front (how often to Atleti lose headed goals now?) Madrid made massively more and better chances than the ultimate winners – but the Belgian, effectively, did an Iker.

I hope we get a clear winner, and given the way that players have been dropping like flies in recent weeks, just ahead of the World Cup, I really hope it’s without extra time.

However nobody would be shocked if this ended up 2-2 and a penalty shoot-out. How epic that would be – Casillas’s skills and nerve v Courtois’ ‘thou-shalt-not-pass’ attitude.

On the subject of physical resources this is one area where Atletico SHOULD have an edge.

Ok, great deal of physical and emotional energy will have been expended around last weekend’s Liga-winning match at the Camp Nou. The party started immediately and wound down in the early (early!) hours of Monday morning.

Fit For Purpose

However, thanks to the fitness guru in whom Diego Simeone puts absolute trust Atlético have spent most of this season with a bigger engine than the majority of their opponents.

The second half surge at Stamford Bridge in the semi final was simply another example – as was the all-out assault on Barcelona in the ten minutes before and after half time last weekend. A league winning blitzkreig.

More, Madrid have some issues. The last few matches have suffered from a vague ‘last week at school’ feeling.

Not fully focussed, not giving everything and not expecting to have that demanded of them either.

When we talk about the delicate nuances which influence how a very big match will go, arriving in fully battle-hardened mode – not trying to gee yourself back up after a ‘foot off the pedal’ fortnight – can make a winning difference.

Madrid needed a last-minute equaliser for a point at home to Valencia, conceded the title by conceding an 87th minute equaliser at subsequently-relegated Valladolid, were trampled on in Vigo, never competing properly with Celta (2-0) and conceded an 89th minute goal last week at home to Espanyol.

Now throw in the ‘missing’ and ‘might be missing’ list and it’s troublesome for the club seeking ‘La Decima’

Rather Xab’ Than Xab’ Not

That Alonso is out is pretty nearly as important as the fact that Iker is in.

While the dog-end of the season made him look as if he required a little rest to seek mental and physical freshness it’s still the case that Madrid are less organized, less co-ordinated and less intelligent without him.

Importantly, I believe, of the two defeats Madrid to Atleti have suffered in the last year the only one which was ragged, pallid and pretty much dominated by Los Rojiblancos was the one where Alonso was absent. Just as he will be on Saturday night.

It’s also the case that while this final has been analyzed it seems to me that the Copa ties this season have been ‘handily’ forgotten.

Madrid not only won they got all the luck going, they got tucked into Atleti physically, they were far more intense athletically and they looked as if they had mental dominance too.

They were evidence, I thought, that while Atlético’s work under Simeone has been so intense (Gabi is top equal and Raúl Garcia is second in the list of the top three players who’ve committed the most fouls in this Champions League) that they often make other teams seem like eight stone weaklings, Madrid were still able to bully Atleti in those two matches. Significantly so.

Can The Ref Kuip’ Things Calm?

Thus to the referee. Bjorn Kuipers. His record in the Champions League looks as if it might suggest a minor edge for Atleti. He’s pretty liberal, likes to let play flow, tries very hard not to book. Overall he averages just barely over three bookings per match in this competition. Yet if he feels a line has been crossed he’s unafraid of the red.

When Bayern Munich played Napoli in 2011 and when Porto tried to kick Barcelona out of the European Supercup that same year he sent two players off in each match.

Simeone makes no bones about being willing to put opposition off their game with street-smart tactics and Gabi, in particular, revels in that. Kuipers will give them some leeway … but judging the line in the sand will be important for Atletico.

Worth a thought:

#Madrid still haven’t dealt with their deficiencies, aerially, and Simeone’s side do like a headed goal/set piece.

#The teams’ last three results leave the aggregate score 7-2 in Madrid’s favour

#IF Ancelotti trusts Illarramendi to take over from Alonso the midfielder will need to improve his speed of thought, distribution and his confidence from the player we’ve seen in the last few weeks.

#Gareth Bale might be coping with niggling pain and hasn’t trained full out this week but whenever Cristiano Ronaldo has been out Bale has come to the fore. In Munich he created a wonderful assist for CR7 and his was the Copa Del Rey final winning goal. A man for the moment.

#Just as Alonso’s absence appeared to influence the first league game of the season which Atletico coasted, Pepe was missing for last season’s Copa Final defeat and was influential in Madrid winning the two Copa games this season. He is not fully fit and, I think, is very unlikely to start. A brute, but a brute that Madrid will miss.

Until Madrid started feeling the aches and pains of the season and gifted away points in three of the last four matches I was convinced, wholly that they’d win this final. Principally because of Casillas, Bale and Ronaldo I still slightly favour them. But better get extra beer and pizza in. It might be a long night .. and then spot kicks.

Whatever happens, Europe belongs to Madrid on Saturday night.

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Reports this week have claimed the Portuguese Football Federation want the former Chelsea and Inter Milan manager to take over on a temporary basis after the sacking of Carlos Queiroz.

Queiroz was dismissed last week after being handed a six-month suspension for insulting anti-doping officials ahead of the World Cup.

Prior to that, he had presided over a home draw with Cyprus and a defeat in Norway in Group H to dent Portugal’s hopes of making it to Ukraine and Poland.

Portugal face Denmark at home and Iceland away next month and speculation had suggested the FPF would turn to the self-proclaimed ?Special One? on a two-game basis.

However, Casillas, who led all-conquering Spain at the World Cup in the summer, says Mourinho does not have the time to devote to his country?s cause.

He said: “I think it would give him too much. I am sure he would like to coach Portugal but his head only thinks of Madrid.

“I don’t think he will go. I have talked to him and his mind is set on Madrid.”

Mourinho himself admits the idea could be a non-starter although he has not completely ruled the proposition out completely.

Speaking ahead of Real Madrid’s trip to Real Sociedad this weekend (Sociedad 6/1, draw  16/5, Madrid 4/11), he told a press conference:  “If it were not for Real Madrid I would do it for free.

“But if you ask me right now if I can go, I think not. I have a contract with Real Madrid. I do not say no, but in the natural way of things, I do not think this is the time.”

Mourinho added: “Real Madrid have every right in the world to put an obstacle in the way.

“And if you put the slightest obstacle there, I can’t go.

“To say no to Portugal is impossible because of my personal pride and my passion for Portugal, but at the moment I cannot say yes.”

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Spain

The Euro 2008 champions – who face Holland in the final to be played at Soccer City in Johannesburg – have come under fire in the tournament and have not always been at their thrilling best. Now, Casillas readily admits that the pressure of being one of the favourites has affected them.

“We’ve felt a bit anxious all the way through the tournament, even the early matches,” said the Real Madrid keeper.

“This is a very important match – the most important of our careers – and we do feel nervous.”

La Roja began the tournament as one of the favourites but lost their first group match 1-0 to Switzerland before recovering with victories over Honduras and Chile to qualify for the knock out rounds.

They have continued to progress through the finals with single goal victories over Portugal, Paraguay and Germany but have struggled to reach the heights that have seen them lose only three times in 50 games.

In contrast, the Dutch, who have been accused of being pragmatic, have been involved in a number of high scoring games.

Spain coach Vicente del Bosque heads into the match with a number of selection dilemmas, with the main issue being whether Liverpool striker Fernando Torres starts up front with David Villa switching to the wing.

Torres (7/4 to score in the final) was dropped for the semi in favour of Barcelona wide man Pedro who impressed. However, the veteran coach was reluctant to reveal what his starting line-up will be but said he was confident in whatever side he settles on and wasn’t afraid to change tactics if he needed to.

“We’ve got a team filled with many possibilities – Plan A, plan B and other distinct solutions,” said the former Real Madrid coach.

Del Bosque also revealed that he hadn’t made any specific plays to counter the threat of Holland playmaker Wesley Sneijder, who has scored five goals in the tournament so far and has been described by team mate Arjen Robben as “the best player in the world over the last 12 months.”

However del Bosque insists that he’s not making any special plans to take care of the Inter player and was confident his midfielders would be able to deal with the threat the Dutchman poses.

“An anti-Sneijder plan? No,” said del Bosque. “Teams nearly always have a player like this that drifts between the lines and that is difficult to mark. We have midfield players who are used to marking these types of players.”

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Spain

The Spanish were seen as perennial underachievers until they won the European Championships in 2008 to alleviate some of the pressure on the national side.

But the Euro 2008 victory has been quickly forgotten and the Spanish population now expect their side to go and lift the ultimate goal in football at the World Cup.

Victory in the match against Germany would book Spain a place in their first World Cup final and make the likelihood of a second major trophy in two years even more of a possibility.

Howver, Casillas is not taking anything for granted and admits his side are aware of the pressure on them.

“People are not telling us how good we were at Euro 2008,” said the keeper.

“People are saying we have to win the World Cup. The people want the World Cup.

“We know that the Germany match is the most important in our history, even more than the Euro 2008 final in Austria.

“We did not come here to finish fourth. The European Championships is in the past and was a complete success, it was fantastic.

“Everyone was flying the (Spanish) flag from the rooftops but now, from what we are seeing, this is the most important match for Spain for a very long time.”

Spent went into the tournament as outright favourites for the title and despite an early hiccup against Switzerland, look right on course to fulfil their billing despite not yet hitting the heights they reached in qualification (Spain 15/8 to win the World Cup).

However Germany are the in-form side in the championship and have impressed with their free flowing football. The Germans destroyed Diego Maradona’s Argentina 4-0 in the quarters and look a danger every time they go forward.

Spain striker Fernando Torres has so far disappointed in the tournament after coming back from knee surgery.

However, Casillas believes this has further demonstrated the strength of the Spanish squad and the importance of the team rather than the individuals.

“This shows that a national team is not at all about only one player.

“A player can win you a tournament, like Argentina and (Diego) Maradona (in Mexico in 1986).

“But today, more and more, the team is what counts. A player can perform very well but at the end of the day everything is based around teamwork.”

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