European football expert Graham Hunter explains why there are major concerns for Barcelona in their Champions League quarter-final, but why Cesc Fabregas should be backed to continue his red-hot form.

Right now everyone is waiting to see whether or not Leo Messi starts against PSG. Just for the moment I’m far more interested in another kind of weighting. Sometimes the force of pre-match opinion stems from unassailable facts and it’s true to say that, at the Camp Nou, and with two away goals, history favours FC Barcelona.

But there are major provisos.

The weighting, or handicapping, which the Champions League and the natural ageing process have introduced to this tie make it fascinating – and risky for the home team.

To explain. There have been times when Barcelona have not simply been divine to watch, they’ve been an absolute brute to play against.

Particularly during the heights of Pep Guardiola’s reign I loved the mixed zone after the match. You’d interview Barcelona’s opponents and, well before praising the Blaugrana, they’d explain to you what a horrible experience it was when you didn’t have a millisecond to think, not a blink of the eye to just ensure the ball was properly controlled.

Playing Barcelona was like trying to compose a classical symphony in a kids’ nursery – constant harassment, increasing irritability, total futility.

Not now. In each of the four seasons when Barça have won this competition they’ve conceded two goals or fewer across all four quarter-final and semi-final matches.

The two conceded at Parc des Princes indicates that, historically, if Barça ship even one more goal then they are in big trouble.

So, is there something to worry about? Yes. Here’s the weighting.

MASCHERANO AND PUYOL: Neither man will feature in the Nou Camp this evening

Carles Puyol has always defied his lack of height, always brought that little bit of extra ‘the badge matters’ to Barça’s displays. But he’s out.

Javier Mascherano is often, albeit not always, a useful deputy at centre back and was a star performer in the 4-0 win over AC Milan last time. He’s out.

Tito Vilanova, just back from cancer treatment in New York, needs to choose between Marc Bartra, Alex Song, Adriano, Busquets and Uncle Tom Cobbley when he chooses Gerard Piqué’s playing partner.

Meanwhile, there’s no escaping that PSG not only possess players to attack the ball aerially with extreme skill and power, they can also call on a number of footballers who use the ball well when putting the ball into the penalty box.

Moreover, Barça’s other kryptonite, pace, is something which PSG have to a reasonable degree. Lucas, particularly, is blindingly quick and Ezequiel Lavezzi has more savvy about when to counter attack than he has blistering pace. But sometimes it’s all about the first few metres in your head, not your feet.

So while Barcelona are at home, have two away goals, possess a terrific Champions League record at the Camp Nou and can boast a handful of World Champions (Xavi, Iniesta, Pedro, Victor Valdés, Busquets, David Villa, Cesc Fabregas and Piqué) there are a couple of specifics in the PSG locker which alter the handicapping.

IF Messi doesn’t start, and he patently wants to given the extra training, extra physio and extra recuperation work he´s undertaken since last week, then Barça are reduced from, I’d still say, the best in the world to a very good team.

IF, into the bargain, PSG have one of those nights when the ball is used well and Alex, Thiago Silva and Zlatan keep winning it in the air then we could have quite a tie.

To the meat.

AB FAB: Cesc Fabregas is on a hot streak and is worth a few quid to score

Cesc Fabregas is, in my opinion, a streak scorer. Not prolific, prolific, but it´s the case that his five-a-side background has made him a very efficient, silky finisher.

And while he talks with a great deal of self-assurance, I’m of the opinion that his self belief fluctuates. Hence the reason he scores in bursts. Get one goal – four or five follow.

The stats tell the story. Four in four in August and September 20007, five in four in December and January 09/10, four in four during February and March 2010, five in four with Barça August and September 2011 then four in three across December and January 2012. Following his first hat trick and two assists at the weekend, back him to score and or assist tonight.

Having said that PSG looked capable of scoring again at the Camp Nou when Alex, Thiago Silva and Zlatan won the ball in the air from set-plays and open play. Lavezzi, too, will feed off the knockdowns the Swede will provide him. Perm through and pick one of them for a goal.

• Betting: Barcelona v PSG
  

Juventus v Bayern Munich

Juventus? They simply didn’t show up last week. But Antonio Conte has been firing his men up to fever pitch. He’s told them that Bayern Munich dived in the first tie, that Franz Beckenbuer insulted Gigi Buffon and that Juve embarrassed themselves.

Way to stoke up an atmosphere!

Bayern were limited in their Bundesliga title celebrations on Saturday but, even so, there is often a ‘hangover’. I take Juve to sneak a win, Vucnic to score and Spanish referee Velasco Carballo to be pushed into breaking his record of never having shown a red card in his 29 Uefa ties thus far.

• Betting: Juventus v Bayern Munich
  

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Puyol’s fellow Barca and Spain team-mates, Xavi, Andres Iniesta and Sergio Busquets, have already gone on record over their desire to see 23-year-old don the famous blaugrana shirt – and now Puyol has also come out to lend his support.

Arsenal are understood to have already rejected a bid from Barcelona for their captain who moved to north London as a teenager in 2003, going on to make almost 200 appearances for the Gunners (Arsenal 7/1  2010/11 Premier League Outright).

Arsenal’s fans are hoping Fabregas is still on board to make many more appearances for them, but he won’t be if Puyol and co get their own way.

Speaking to The Sun,  versatile defender Puyol said: “He is having to stay at a club where he no longer wants to be for another year.

“I wonder how intelligent it is keeping a player who doesn’t want to be there.

“After seven years of great service, I thought Arsenal could have granted him his dream move.

“Cesc has given everything to Arsenal to try to win a trophy but they haven’t matched his expectations.

“I won’t say he is in a prison, as we know how privileged we are as football players.

“But after how clear Cesc made it that he wanted to be in Barcelona, I thought they would have granted him that.”

Whether or not Fabregas is still a Gunner by the end of the transfer window remains to be seen.

But if he is, boss Arsene Wenger has told the midfielder he stands a chance of playing his part in taking the Premier League title back to north London for the first time since 2003/04.

The Frenchman told Arsenal’s website: “We know in England that the Premier League is the biggest league in the world and everybody invests a lot of money.

“We invest in our work, in our beliefs, in the quality of our behaviour and I am confident that will pay off.

“We finished third last year and we hope we can improve on that – but the race will be tough.”

The Gunners host the Emirates Cup again this weekend, kicking off against AC Milan on Friday night.

Arsenal (7/4 – 90 Minutes) kick off the season at Liverpool (5/4) on August 15.

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Arsenal

Fabregas seemed to have little choice in the matter as Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol pulled the famous Blaugrana jersey over his head but the incident has only fuelled rumours the 23-year-old is set to quit the Emirates for Camp Nou.

The Spain midfielder has admitted he is keen to make the switch back to the club where he began his career as a youth player, while members of the Spain squad such as Andres Iniesta have stated he is eager to rejoin the Catalan giants.

However, Arsenal remain desperate to keep-hold of the talented playmaker and have already rejected a bid, believed to be around £30m, from Barca for Fabregas.

The Gunners captain is facing a difficult decision regarding his career, Fabregas has always maintained he is happy in London but has never shied away from the fact that he would love to return “home” to Barcelona and with Arsenal reluctant to sell there has been speculation he may have to force a move if he is to return to Camp Nou.

Fabregas himself has downplayed the fact he wore a Barcelona shirt as Spain celebrated and states he had no idea what Pique and Puyol were planning when Liverpool keeper Pepe Reina dragged him onto the stage.

“There are times we do not even know what we do, so everything can be forgiven,” explained Fabregas. “Pepe took me there (to the front of the stage), the truth is that I didn’t know anything like that was going to happen and so I was a bit surprised.

“At first I thought it was a flag or something, but it’s nothing. You had to enjoy it and if it’s a way to have fun, it’s nothing.”

Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger remains adamant Fabregas will not be sold in the summer but if the player himself forces a move away the French manager may have little say in the matter.  However, Arsenal have already knocked back one bid and the Spanish side have stated they will not pay a mega-fee for Fabregas so this is a transfer saga which could drag on for some-time, even after the transfer window closes if a deal is not reached.

When asked about his future Fabregas remained non-committal and would not give much away, simply saying: “I think now the less said about the subject much the better, because these things are worse for everyone when they come to light and people talk more about the matter, right now we have to be very calm and what will be will be.”

The Gunners take on Liverpool at Anfield in a mouth-watering opening day fixture in the Premier League but it remains to be seen whether Fabregas will be involved by the time the big kick-off comes around (Liverpool 5/4, draw 23/10, Arsenal 7/4 – 90 minutes).

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The 23-year-old has been a bit part player in Spain’s run to Sunday’s final having been hampered by injuries and having a long list of talented players ahead of him.

The likes of Xavi, Andres Iniesta and Xabi Alonso have all been given preference in the middle of the part over Fabregas and Vicente del Bosque is unlikely to change that for the final.

Spain (21/20 to beat Holland in 90 minutes) looked finally back to their best in Wednesday’s semi-final victory over Germany, passing Joachim Low’s side into submission in a superb display of possession football.

Del Bosque’s side had struggled at times on their route to the final, losing to Switzerland in their first group match while stumbling through the knock out rounds against Portugal and Paraguay.

However, they looked in top form in Durban in mid week and will carry a lot of confidence into Sunday’s match against the unbeaten Dutch.

Spain came into the tournament as favourites having won the European championship two years ago, beating Germany in the final.

While they haven’t quite lived up to their previous billing a Fabregas-less outfit look in good shape for the final.

With Spain finally clicking into gear without Fabregas it seems certain that he will start on the bench in Soccer City.

The Arsenal star was tipped to start the semi-final against Germany before leg and shoulder injuries saw him start amongst the substitutes, del Bosque reluctant to risk the midfielder considering his previous injury concerns.

Having played so well against Germany and with no fresh injuries it looks as though the Spain coach will stick with the starting eleven, meaning Pedro (5/2 anytime goalscorer) will start ahead of Fernando Torres (7/4) again.

Fabregas admits it is unlikely he will start on Sunday but says he is just desperate to play any part in a World Cup final.

“I’m so proud Spain is in the World Cup final, but it means nothing if we don’t win it,” Fabregas told The Sun.

“I am desperate to play at least some part in tomorrow’s game.

“What player on the planet wouldn’t be? It’s everything we dream of from the moment we start kicking a ball to the moment we learn all about the world’s greatest football tournament.

“If I’m lucky enough to get a start, I will give everything I have. But if I have to start on the bench, then so be it. All I can pray for is that I get a chance to play some part of this unbelievable game.”

Fabregas started the Euro 2008 final against Germany in place of the injured David Villa having made a telling impact in the quarters and semi-finals.

However, he looks destine to be a bit part player in Sunday’s final despite his previous performances in major tournaments.

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Speculation continues to rumble on over the future of Fabregas but it seems as though the midfielder has made up his mind over where his future lies, and it is not with Arsenal.

Before he jetted off to the World Cup with Spain, Fabregas made it clear to Gunners boss Arsene Wenger that he would like to return to the Nou Camp and nothing has happened since to change his mind.

If anything his desire to return to the club he left as a 15-year-old has grown even more after being surrounded by a host of Barcelona players for the last four weeks.

The World Cup could not have come at a worse time for Arsenal and it comes as no surprise to hear Pique say how the Barca players have been urging him to sign.

“I have known that Cesc wanted to join Barcelona for many years – but now it is more than about wanting to do it,”  Pique revealed.

“Now it is something he feels he must do. The World Cup has not been a good thing for Arsenal.
“It has meant that he has been spending every day with myself, Xavi, Andres Iniesta and Victor Valdes – and he has made his feelings very clear to us.

“He is keeping his mind focused on Spain but his heart is in Barcelona. I think already in his heart he is wearing a Barcelona shirt next season.”

However no matter what Pique or Fabregas think, the final decision will be made by the Gunners and if Barca do not stump up the cash then the player is going nowhere.

Reports now claim that further talks between the two parties will continue this week and Barcelona are confident of landing their man once the World Cup is over.

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Arsenal

The Gunners are hanging on to the Spain midfielder with their fingernails as Barca step up their pursuit of the player and Laporta says it is only a matter of time before they land their man.

The words of Laporta are sure to infuriate Gunners officials but you cannot help but agree with him because Fabregas has made his mind up that he wants to return to his former club and player power usually wins day.

No matter how hard Arsenal fight to keep hold if Fabregas sticks by his guns and asks to leave a deal is more than likely to go through if the price is right.

Agreeing a fee could be easier said than done. Barca are already thought to have failed with one bid in the region of £29million and Arsenal will probably want closer to double that if they are to sell.

They will say Cristiano Ronaldo went to Real Madrid for £80million last summer and Fabregas is worth £60million, but Barca will argue they are completely different players and are unlikely to go that high.

Fabregas has always maintained how happy he is at the Emirates Stadium and it is hard to see him kicking up a fuss but if Arsenal block the move over the fee they could have an unhappy player on their hands which will no good to anybody.

Either way Laporta says it is only a matter of time before they land their man and believes it will happen this summer, eventually.

“Arsenal will end up giving in, but I don’t know when that will be. We will have to wait and let the professionals who are taking care of it do their work,” he revealed.

Laporta is set to leave office at the end of the month but if he cannot wrap up a deal in that time, he believes his replacement Sandro Rosell will.

“If it’s not us, it will be up to the new board, if they consider if appropriate, to carry on along this road,” he added.

Arsenal now have some tough decisions to make but nothing will be sorted until after the World Cup. However the time Fabregas is spending with Spain will not help matters as the Barcelona players will no doubt be in his ear everyday urging him to return to the Nou Camp and that looks the most likely outcome.

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Cesc Fabregas

The Spain midfielder has openly expressed a desire to return to the club he left as a 16-year-old in 2003 and is understood to have told manager Arsene Wenger he wants to move back to his homeland.

“An informal conversation with Arsenal became formal on 1 June and now an official approach has been made to the club,” said a Barca spokesman.

The Catalan giants have long held an interest in Fabregas, who is currently with Spain’s World Cup squad, and have now registered a formal offer for the 23-year-old.

The Barca spokesman added on BBC Sport: “Before 1 June, under English rules, we could not make an official approach to Arsenal for Fabregas, but that changed on Tuesday.

“I don’t think there is a special advance on, say, the price or anything, but it has moved on now.”

Earlier on Wednesday, Xavi insisted he was now “certain” his Spain (21/10 to be Europe’s top team at the World Cup) team-mate would leave north London for the Nou Camp.

“It had to be like this,” said Xavi. “Two years ago, I said Cesc would end up playing for Barcelona, and now it is clearer than ever.

“He has also expressed publicly that he wants to come to Barcelona and when a player wants to move to some place he ends up going. It is clear that Cesc will come to Barcelona.”

Fabregas signed an eight-year contract with the Gunners in 2006 but has made no secret of his desire to play for Barcelona.

Barca director general Joan Oliver revealed on the club’s official website: “Everyone knows that Cesc wants to play with Barca and everyone knows we want him to sign but here there is a third actor that is Arsenal.

“Yesterday [Tuesday] we presented a concrete offer and have written to Arsenal.”

The vice-president of the Catalan club, Rafael Yuste, added: “We are hoping we can sign Cesc as soon as possible.

“I am optimistic. It is clear that he is family and we would greet his return with a warm embrace. For this reason we don’t want to do anything that would harm his signing. We don’t want to rush but neither will we stop.”

Fabregas would become Barca’s second major signing of the summer following the capture of Spain team-mate David Villa for £34m from Valencia.

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Cesc Fabregas

Speculation over the future of Fabregas has started to reach fever pitch and now for the first time, the Gunners ace has broken his silence on the matter.

Fabregas has now confirmed that a meeting did take place between himself and Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger last week and reading between the lines it looks as though the Frenchman is ready to sanction the move.

The Spanish ace would not go into too much detail but it sounds as though Wenger has granted him his wish of a return to Barcelona if the Catalan giants pay the asking price and he can draft in a replacement before he leaves.

“He told me to concentrate on my football, he told me to concentrate on the World Cup, he told me to leave it in his hands, he will deal with whatever happens in my future and that’s what I’m doing, just concentrating on football,” Fabregas revealed.

“It’s not up to me any more and it’s just now about Arsenal and wherever it has to be and that’s it. I don’t want to say anything else, I just want to be focused for the World Cup because it is the most important thing – the rest is the future and I’m not interested in the future.”

Fabregas is now free to concentrate on the World Cup safe in the knowledge that Wenger will look after him. He knows that all being well, he is likely to sign for Barcelona after the South Africa showpiece.

Wenger now has the tough task of trying to find a replacement and there have already been suggestions he may try and swoop on Everton for another Spanish playmaker, Mikel Arteta.

Replacing Fabregas, like Manchester United discovered after losing Cristiano Ronaldo last summer, will be almost impossible but Arteta has the quality to slip into the Gunners midfield.

Everton would be holding out for at least £15million but Wenger will have plenty of cash to do a deal if Fabregas goes and there will also be plenty left over to swoop for Bolton’s Gary Cahill as well.

The Gunners are 6/1 to win the Premier League next season but without Fabregas it will be a tall order unless Wenger can weave his magic in the transfer market.

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