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Watch: Graham Hunter has a special offer for a huge Clasico
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WATCH: Graham Hunter expertly analyse an intriguing El Clasico and give a tasty 7/1 double
11 games into the La Liga season and already we’re looking at an El Clasico meeting with real implications for who will prevail in the presumed two and a half horse race. Rafa Benitez leads Real into the massive clash under massive pressure. Defeat to Sevilla before the international break means Real would fall six points behind with defeat in this. As knee-jerk and ridiculous as it seems, his job could depend on events on Saturday night.
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To expand on some of the stats provided by Graham in the video:
- There hasn’t been an El Clasico draw in seven meetings. The last came in the Copa Del Rey in January 2013.
- If it’s a draw, it’s very likely to be of the score variety. All nine of their most recent stalemates have been score draws. It’s for the draw and both teams to score.
- The last El Clasico scoreless draw came in November 2002. Patrick Kluivert was leading the line for Barca while for Real, Steve McManaman came on for about the last half an hour.
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It’s not all about El Clasico however. It mainly is, but Graham also fancies the for Athletic Bilbao to claim a rare away win at Granada. Here are some of the keys stats.
- Athletic Bilbao are unbeaten in seven games in all competitions, winning the last five on the bounce
- Granada haven’t won in nine La Liga games.
- In addition to his tidy haul against Granada, has scored three goals in his last six appearances in all competitions.
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Graham Hunter Exclusive: Moyes to be merrier with another win and Barcelona to stretch league lead with El Clasico win
Atlético Madrid v Getafe, Saturday 3pm
Referee: Martínez Munuera
Earlier this season Getafe were a bit indigestible to the reigning Champions. Like trying to swallow six cream-cracker sandpaper sandwiches in a sauna.
Cosmin Contra’s team had Alexis sent off with 35 minutes to play but Atleti still only squeeked through 1-0.
For Getafe that may seem an eternity ago – it’s certainly a couple of managers ago. Coach Contra is in China, sold [!] to Guangzhou. Quique Sanchez Flores seemed a brilliant appointment but left, before the ink was dry on his contract, infuriated by broken promises, and now he’s being sued by the President.
Last week, losing 0-1 at home to Real Sociedad Getafe didn’t play like a ‘broken’ team. But it’s feasible that a fracture might occur here.
Getafe have had a man sent off in each of their last three Liga matches against Atleti, beginning last season, when Los Rojiblancos smashed them 7-0 in this fixture. Looks like bad blood.
Atleti street-fought their way through in Europe in midweek and while you might suspect that extra-time and penalties against Leverkusen would take their toll, physically, the mental boost of winning that shoot-out and delighting these rabid fans means that Atleti should be backed to come out all guns blazing and to get tucked right into Getafe.
Raul Garcia got two in this game last year and having missed a penalty in the shoot-out it’d be typical of him to get that monkey off his back quickly with a goal against Getafe.
Griezmann, as always, is worth a punt because his pace, confidence and form set him apart. But if Mario Mandzukic’s midweek knock keeps him out then Fernando Torres scoring in a Madrid derby is worth a look too.
Hunter’s Hint: Atletico -2 goals at 11/4
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Athletic Bilbao v Almería, Saturday 9pm
Referee Prieto Iglesias
The Lions finally had enough of being stared at in their cage and got on with doing a bit of savaging. Five straight wins in League and Cup, including the European champions, stingy in defence and in front of a roaring, proud crowd. All of that and the Copa final to come at the end of May.
So, playing lowly Almería who’ve not tasted victory in five it’s gotta be a straight KO, right?
But just the slightest engaging of memory muscles will remind you of Athletic losing to Elche, Cordoba and Granada this season.
All of them at San Mames. All of them ‘guaranteed’ wins.
Ernesto Valverde says:
“We need to change our mentality. “We’ve been playing well, last week Celta allowed us space to get in behind them but Almeria will dig in and we’ll need neat, technical, inside-forward skills around their area to get the win we want”.
Almería coach Juan Ignacio Martínez, known to friend and foe alike as JIM, agrees:
“I like my teams to be on the ball but I’ve consolidated my reputation as a coach by knowing how to defend deep, intensely and to play well on the break. “That’s my trademark”.
Tomer Hemed, fancied for long enough by Everton until a bad injury, is their most bankable scorer while Aduriz is having a simply unbelievable season. Miki San José, named in the Spain squad, loves a goal and while I don’t think this paints as an ideal game for him [he’ll get more on the break than he ever does as a penalty box finisher] Iñaki Williams does work his socks off for the team and one of these days he’ll look less ungainly in the box and score.
If this isn’t a firm home win then I’ll not be the only one who’s shocked. Athletic to score a couple and win. More Aduriz? Why not?
Hunter’s Hint: Aduriz to score and Bilbao to win at 8/5
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Villarreal v Sevilla, Sunday 4pm
Referee: Hernández Hernández
“Oh, it’s YOU again” – the surly, barely civil greeting between those who didn’t particularly like each other in the first place and have, definitely, seen too much of each other in recent days.
This will be the fourth meeting between them this season and the third in ten days. Thus far the clock has been Villarreal’s enemy in these contests.
For example, back in October they faced off in the League.
Vietto [definitely worth an any-time] put Villarreal ahead at the Sanchez Pizjuan with 11 remaining.
But then both Denis Suárez and Carlos Bacca [penalty] scored in the space of the last three minutes – the countdown to the final whistle cost Villarreal dearly.
Then, last week, it took Vitolo 13 seconds to give Sevilla a lead which they converted into a huge Europa League away win at the Madrigal – 1-3 was the final score with Mbia and Gameiro adding the other two.
[Vietto scored again].
So the Yellow Submarine dozed off in the first fixture and hadn’t woken up in time for the second meeting.
By Thursday things were slightly less dramatic but Suárez still added the key goal with the match balanced at 1-1 with seven minutes left.
Villarreal must feel pretty humiliated by Unai Emery’s evidently sharper/fitter team.
You’d have thought that, perhaps, they’ll get after them with all guns blazing just for a little bit of revenge on Sunday afternoon – perhaps Eric Bailly’s red card on Thursday will be added to?
But Sevilla have three wins and a draw in the last seven visits to the Madrigal.
So it’s a feisty one in prospect. Hard to call. Sevilla have proven that they are more savvy, fitter and maybe just that touch hungrier. So they should go home again without defeat. 2-2. Perm from Vietto, Gerard, Bacca, Vitolo [named in the Spain squad] or Denis Suárez for the goals.
Hunter’s Hint: 2-2 at 11/1
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Real Sociedad v Córdoba, Sunday 6pm
Referee: Velasco Carballo
This is a good moment to be David Moyes.
Everton don’t look better off without him, Manchester United’s vast expenditure on players hasn’t greatly improved their paying public’s contentment with the Van Gaal playing style, yet at least, and now Real Sociedad are both bright and bubbly.
They’ve won three out of the last four and suddenly there’s not a queue to get into the infirmary or red-cross aid being handed out in San Sebastian.
This season every single player except two, Rubén Pardo and Esteban Granero, has missed at least one game through injury and this is the first week that La Real have had every player fit.
The big question is whether the Scot reckons that his star striker Carlos Vela has had enough time working with the squad, after two months out, to have game time here.
A start seems unlikely, particularly given how well La Real have coped without him.
Cordoba have lost their last eight, more fool them for sacking Chapi Ferrer in the first place.
Worse, they’ve only scored four times in those eight matches. The second division awaits. Chapi’s replacement, Miroslav Djukic, has also been sacked and the ‘Miracle Man’ José Antonio Romero, is in charge. Last season he took over the Cordoba ‘B’ team when they’d gone eight games without a win [7 defeats] and saved them from relegation.
His former midfielder Rafa Gálvez reckons: “This is a reward for years of hard work by Romero. “He’s such a hard worker. “Last year the B team was last but he saved them. “It’ll be intense under him but he’s qualified for the job of keeping Cordoba up”. Iago Bouzón, Fede Vico and Edimar are all out – Crespo’s a doubt. Not ideal. Xisco came off the bench in the first game between these sides this season [1-1] to equalize very late on but Nabil Ghilas is the [any time scorer] danger man.
La Real aren’t a scoring machine and thus a draw isn’t impossible but their confidence is high, they’ve been working hard under Moyes and should win.
Perm from Canales, Chory Castro and Iñigo for an any time scorer. 2-0/3-1
Hunter’s Hint: Real Sociedad -1 at 15/8
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FC Barcelona v Real Madrid, Sunday 8pm
Referee: Mateu Lahoz
Okay, hands up and no shouting the answer out – who remembers Carlo Ancelotti’s ideas last season before the Camp Nou Clasico?
Anyone? No? Right, time you lot did more homework.
Gareth Bale at centre forward to begin with, Sergio Ramos in midfield. Sami Khedira lumbering around alongside him.
No Benzema to start with. No Isco. No Iker. Sounds farcical, doesn’t it?
But Madrid still only lost 2-1 and were, by the time he got things right tactically, distinctly in the ascendancy as the final whistle approached.
The Italian’s confusion wasn’t simply to do with it being his first match against Barça as Madrid coach – mainly to do with him not being sure of his own resources.
This Clasico weekend profiles differently. You’d bet that he’ll start with Casillas; Carvajal, Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo: Isco, Kroos, Modric: Bale, Benzema, Ronaldo.
No experiments, no mucking about. But the shape will probably be more often 4-4-2, and the style will certainly be more counter-attacking then has been the case for most of this season.
Ancelotti is asking Bale to work more defensively, to position himself more as a fourth midfielder than the third striker – and if the Welshman fulfils his brief he is, counter-intuitively, more likely to be a goal threat.
When he got his winner in the Copa Final last season he’d begun the move back in his own penalty box – but still left Marc Bartra gasping for air when sprinting across half the pitch, and what felt like twice around the stadium, to score. Let Bale get up pace and he’s more dangerous than he’s looked in recent months.
Barcelona are susceptible to pace and power when it’s deployed on clever counters against them – step forward Gareth-boyo.
Eight visits since losing here 5-0 in 2010 have all brought a Real Madrid goal or goals. They score at the Camp Nou and should do so again. Benzema has four in three v Barça.
If you’d like another reason to believe in the visitors then let’s update Claudio Bravo’s stats against Madrid.
Since 2006 he’s faced them 11 times, losing ten and conceding 33 goals.
All that said, Barcelona start favourites and should probably carry your cash on them. They play quick, confident football, press well and rob the ball and now they break effectively.
At set plays they score more, defending set plays they concede fewer.
There’s competition for places, Messi’s on flying form and Rakitic is the under-appreciated hit of the season.
It’s hard to imagine that Busquets is ready to play but Mascherano in midfield works – just differently.
Both teams to score, three+ goals [the last ten years have seen 34 Clásicos averaging three and a half goals per game], Messi to add to his all-time leading scorer status in this fixture, Benzema to reply but the home side to extend their Liga lead. Easier said than done.
Hunter’s Hint: Both teams to score and Barcelona to win at 6/4
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Graham Hunter’s La Liga Preview: The first El Clasico of the season heralds the return of Suarez and the best of the rest
Real Madrid v Barcelona Saturday 5pm
Given that Barcelona won only 12 times in 74 years away to Real Madrid until 2003 it will come as a shock to the unwary, and the stuff of nightmares to Florentino Pérez, that Madrid have won only five of the last 17 Clásicos at the Bernabéu.
Without wishing to ignore Ronaldinho or Etoo, this is testimony to what the era of Xavi, Iniesta, Puyol, Victor Valdés Messi and Piqué has been like. Strong, talented, unquenchably hungry. But also, centrally, an era where Barcelona have largely dominated possession and Madrid, if their opponents are on form, become positionally ragged.
It’s not the end, yet, but it’s the beginning of the end. Valdés and Puyol are gone. A few weeks ago Xavi would have been an outsider to start based on Luis Enrique’s extremely sparing use of the midfielder. Piqué admitted to me this week that he’s facing the biggest challenge of his career right now. The challenge to keep his place.
These last ten years have seen 33 Clasicos – in La Liga, La Copa, the Supercopa and the Chamipons League. At the Santiago Bernabeu, at the Camp Nou, at La Mestalla.
These behemoth matches have gifted us 112 goals – almost three and a half per game.
At which point I think it’s fair to look at the credentials of the two sides as they approach this particular Clásico. In theory it’s irresistable force v immoveable object.
Madrid [for which read Cristiano Ronaldo] are scoring at an unparalleled rate. Forty three times this season they’ve hit the net [all comps] while ‘immoveable’ Barça [for which read Claudio Bravo] have yet to concede a goal in La Liga.
Put it all together and the ten year, 112 goal stat tells you that more often it’s the force which is irresistible and the object which is moveable. There have only been ten clean sheets in the last 33 meetings between the sides [in fact only 7 scoreless draws since 1928, and there will NOT be one on Saturday]
Which somewhat puts the focus on one of the battles featuring a Clasico debutant this weekend. Claudio Bravo. Excellent so far this season he’s been only partly responsible for the zero goals conceded given that Barcelona have been pressing like Italian farmers during the olive harvest. But he’s produced several key saves.
Something which has been in short supply in his previous meetings with either Real Madrid or Ronaldo.
A Bravo Decision
Since his debut in 2006 Bravo has:
Played Madrid ten times.
LOST nine
CONCEDED thirty
CONCEDED AWAY fourteen
CONCEDED TO CR7 ten goals in six meetings
WON never.
Doesn’t mean that the horrific run can’t end now that he’s with Barcelona .. but it’s a nasty, nagging thought to carry with you into enemy territory.
His tormentor, Ronaldo took eleven games to score two goals v Barça … and has eleven in thirteen thereafter.
Does Suárez start. Instinct says yes. Football’s conservatism tells you no. The Barcelona players all say he’s ripping it up in training. Luis Enrique seems enchanted with him. He scored two against England in his penultimate competitive match not long after having a surgeon hack about in his knee. He’s remarkable.
But for how long would he last, stamina-wise? Did Pedro do enough against Ajax to correct the impression that he’s been out of form this season.
For Madrid how much does Bale’s absence matter? It’s remarkable that the only Clásico they won last season, the Cup final, was without Ronaldo. That Bale gallop and goal will live long in the memory but won’t be repeated this weekend.
Messi ripped Madrid up again last season – scoring two penalties. An art at which he’s looked increasingly jittery since. Iniesta got the other goal in that stunning 3-4 Barcelona win – he, too, has had an underwhelming season until playing blisteringly well against Ajax.
Worth backing ‘anytime’ are Isco, in his best form at Madrid and very capable of scoring, Benzema who had two in this fixture last season, laid on the opening goal in the Cup final and rocketed a shot off the bar in the Camp Nou Clásico, and Neymar.
In the league last season, only he had as much influence as Messi in Clásicos scoring one, making two and winning a penalty. This season he’s been muscular, quick and much more focussed.
For the ‘over three goals’ mob, I agree. Final score 2-2, Neymar and Benzema, Messi and Isco to feature on the scoresheet.
- Real Madrid 7/5, Barcelona 15/8, Draw 5/2: Bet Now
Valencia v Elche, Saturday 7pm
Right, quiz question. You are betting in play, Elche get a penalty against Valencia – what’s gonna happen?
First of all, so long as he’s not been injured or red carded Edu Albacar will take it. His career stat is thirteen out of thirteen converted. “I know there’s likely to be a day when I miss but I want to be able to retire with the boast that I scored every penalty I took”.
In this instance there’s a little bit more of the old ‘irresistable force, immoveable object’.
Diego Alves, recalled to the Brazil squad this week, is back for Valencia having missed the defeat in la Coruña with gastroenteritis. Alves has saved 16 of the 35 penalties he’s faced in Spanish football. Taking into account the couple which have also gone wide or hit the woodwork the stats say that if you face Alves it’s about 50/50 whether you score or not.
Alvaro Negredo is fit again but only makes the bench. Valencia missed their young Portuguese midfielder André Gomes dramatically in that loss to Depo and his return should be influential. Each team won the home version of this match last season – Valencia will do so again this.
- Valencia 4/11, Elche 17/2, Draw 7/2: Bet Now
Sevilla v Villarreal, Sunday 6pm
Last time these two teams met here there was a bit of the ‘after you Claude’ feel to the match. Sevilla had the Europa League final in view and Villarreal just needed one point to clinch a return to Uefa competition in their first season after promotion back to La Liga. There was pretty football but few chances, almost no tackles and not a single booking – after the previous two encounters had yielded fifteen yellows and two reds.
Europe was on the agenda this week and it might give the narrowest edge to a strong Villarreal away performance. They were at home while thrashing Zurich 4-1 while Sevilla had to fight out a draining 0-0 draw at Standard Liege. The Yellow Submarine more rested as a result – it’s a narrow call. Both Mbia, who should start, and Kevin Gameiro, who’s still finding match tempo after five months out but who should come on in the second half [he has a goal and a shot off the post in his two comeback matches] look nice for a ‘goal anytime’. For Villarreal Gio Dos Santos is the obvious candidate for a goal against the club who helped him kickstart his career after his nightmare at Spurs. Bruno Soriano too, ‘who should definitely be playing for Spain’ according to his manager, Marcelino, is in fine form and might be worth a punt.
- Sevilla 21/20, Villareal 5/2, Draw 5/2: Bet Now
Getafe v Atlético Madrid, Sunday 8pm
In theory this should be meat and drink to the Spanish champions. Off the back of potentially their best performance of the season, even including two wins over Madrid, and a short trundle across the Spanish capital to face a team which is neither their footballing nor their physical equal. But Geta’s aggressive Romanian coach Cosmin ‘Don’t You Dare Take A Bad Performance Back Into MY Dressing Rom’ Contra doesn’t agree with me.
“They are under the pressure of having to win all the time to fight to retain their title. “We just want to make it tough for the champions. “See if they have a bad day and we have a good one. “They played differently last season, they’ve brought in 12 new guys and they are still adapting. “They aren’t the same as they were last year”.
Which is just as well given that Getafe lost 9-0 on aggregate to Atleti last year.
For los Rojiblancos the fact that Griezmann finally got a goal having hit the bar, the post, defenders and some invisible forcefield for weeks when shooting at goal might release some of his anxiety and you’d not bet against him adding another. If after his two cracking goals in a minute for Geta to win at the Anoeta on Monday you fancy Abdoul Yoda to repeat the feat just remember that two is the magic number. The most he’s ever scored in a season for Servette Sion or Astra Giurgiu before moving to Madrid. In fact he has ten in all matches since July 2008. So good luck with that.
- Getafe 6/1, Atletico Madrid 8/15, Draw 11/4: Bet Now
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Graham Hunter: Why Barcelona have laboured lately, but things can work in their favour for El Clasico
El Clasico, Sunday 8pm, Sky Sports 1
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Those who thought, a couple of weeks ago, that this Clasíco was shaping up like a premium Mike Tyson versus an eight stone weakling may see no reason at all to change their mind.
It’s just a fortnight since Barcelona put in what must be their worst league performance since January 2003 (then it was a 3-0 away defeat to Racing Santander, this time a pathetic display in losing 1-0 to Valladolid) and the reigning champions have only 12 out of a possible 21 points in recent matches.
Set that against Real Madrid’s relentless treatment of every kind of rival, Copa, Champions League and La Liga and this was shaping up as a mis-match.
But not for me the hoary old chestnut that ‘anything can happen’ in a ‘derby’ or a ‘Clasíco’ – there are a clutch of specific, interesting factors which while Madrid may deserve to remain favourites, narrow the gap.
Firstly the pride of the Barcelona players has been horribly wounded. Not, for once, by criticism from the media and fans but because they, as a group, fully realized that the level of commitment, attitude and effort they showed at Valladolid was totally unacceptable.
Both the victories since then, beating Manchester City 2-1 and thumping Osasuna 7-0, have been cathartic.
Key players performed with zest, concentration, energy and aggression.
Both, granted, were at the Camp Nou where Barcelona’s vulnerability has been dramatically less evident.
But tied with the recent wins at Sevilla and City there was evidence that the absolutely crucial remnants of Barcelona’s golden era are locked and loaded – Messi, Iniesta, Valdés in particular.
It isn’t quite stating the obvious as much as once would have been the case, but Messi is the key.
Mess-ter and Commander
His performances in 2014, since he lost the Ballon D’Or to Cristiano Ronaldo, have been a strange mix. When he’s played listlessly he’s either scored or assisted. When he, and the team, have hit top gear, he’s looked brilliant once more.
Historically he loves this match. The Argentinian has 18 goals in 26 meetings with Madrid, one more and he’ll pinch the all time record off his countryman Alfredo Di Stefano (30 Clasícos).
This calendar year in 17 matches, all competitions, he’s scored 17 times and made seven more.
This, just when people were beginning to question his appetite, his zip and his mood.
One might argue that Sky Sports bringing us the genius of Ronaldo and Messi every weekend has only taught the dullards to be quixotic and impatient rather than appreciative and wise.
But attentive Messi-watchers should have learned something else.
He always insists that no matter his prolific scoring, no matter that he produces lava-hot spurts of play which take a match away from any rival of any class he relies on a team performance.
He doesn’t think he produces one-man-wins, nor does he want anyone else to think that.
Martino, just as against City, needs to be smart enough to unite Cesc, Iniesta, Xavi and Busquets in the same starting XI.
If he doesn’t, if he thinks that a three man midfield and three out-and-out strikers will suffice in a 4-3-3 v 4-3-3 battle then Madrid will win, I’m sure of that.
As Time Goes Bye …
More, I think there’s the ‘old showman’ factor.
This is guaranteed to be Victor Valdés’ last Liga Clasíco – already stubborn as a mule, he’ll give extra to ensure that it isn’t a defeat.
Whether or not Puyol makes the squad everyone around him will be conscious that this, too, is not ‘au-revoir’ but adieu. For good.
There’s an all for one one for all spirit to this squad. He’s held in reverential affection by those around him – again, there’ll be an extra effort.
Xavi has a deal until 2016 but there’s pressure on his services for next season. Perhaps he’ll stay, only he knows. But IF he knows this might be his final Bernabéu appointment then watch him attempt to switch his ‘passometer’ into overdrive.
None of these factors win matches on their own, but they narrow the gap.
Then there is the lack of the ‘fear factor’. Most of these Barcelona players have played in the majority of their club’s last ten visits to the Bernabéu.
Those matches have yielded five wins, three draws and two defeats. A remarkable record.
Real Improvement
None of this is to detract from Real Madrid’s status as favourites. They are four points ahead for a good reason. Carlo Ancelotti’s team haven’t lost in any competition since the 2-1 defeat to Barça back in October. The swing in their favour has been ten points since then.
For months now they have been pressing the ball with more co-ordination and energy than Barça, they have been quick and accurate in their use of the ball.
Thus far this has been Ronaldo’s season, not Messi’s. Not only is his goal tally outrageous – closer to fifty than thirty – he’s forming a wonderful partnership with Bale who keeps on serving him assists.
More, Ronaldo has long since learned to love ‘bullying’ Barcelona.
Having failed to score in his first five games against them for Madrid and Manchester United he’s subsequently hit 12 in 17 Clasícos.
Headers, breakaways, subtle touches, shots from distance, penalties – the full repertoire. Barcelona’s only successful tactic against Ronaldo is, just as when Spain play Portugal, is to stop the ball getting to him. (Back to that four man midfield and trying to get a head-lock on possession) if they fail to do that it’s almost guaranteed he’ll score again.
Tired old excuses or a Real worry?
But if there’s a case to make that the gap between the two sides has narrowed then it might pay to heed the regular references over the last two and half weeks which Ancelotti has made to ‘tiredness’ and the ‘recuperation’ of his players.
Also to the fact that one or two Madrid players, Pepe and Di Maria, have been hit by high temperatures and allergies this week.
Last weekend in Malaga there was a drop-off in creativity and intensity and while some of Ancelotti’s key men were initially rested against Schalke on Wednesday Xabi Alonso (so vital), Sergio Ramos and Cristiano Ronaldo were not while Bale and Dani Carvajal were required to come on.
Should Madrid need a tiger in their tank, however, it’s the knowledge that they defeated Barcelona three times last season, twice at home once away, and three points this weekend will almost certainly put the defending champions out of the title race.
Some value? Well, Real Madrid scored four headers, spread between Rafa Varane, Sergio Ramos and Cristiano Ronaldo, in last season’s Clasícos.
Spare a thought for Barça’s defenders, too. Widely lambasted when the fault is often the lack of pressing by players in front of them it’s still the case that Carles Puyol, Eric Abidal and Jordi Alba have all scored Clasíco goals in the last couple of seasons and …. Dani Alves recently scored in each leg of the Champions League tie against Manchester City. Fancy it?
Ref justice
The referee: his decisions distinctly helped Barcelona last October (denying Ronaldo a clear penalty) but still Martino’s players absolutely distrust him. Their hackles will be up and they’ll be in ‘protest’ mode from the get-go.
This despite the fact that with Undiano Mallenco Barcelona has a lower loss % than Madrid do under him; their rivals see massively more bookings with him (Barça 98 yellows:opponents 125 yellows) than is the case when he refs Madrid (RM 133:134 opponents), his penalty ratio goes the same way (Barça 9:3 opponents while Real Madrid 9:7 opponents). But the Barça players think he’s too slow to book, too liberal with foul-play as a tactic .. and I’d say nobody will feel a fool for taking a long look at the odds for penalties and red cards.
But to make a long story short. If Barcelona control the ball they’ll go home with no worse than a draw … and still in the title chase. If Martino selects the wrong starting XI then sit back and watch Madrid boss midfield and pick off their historic rivals.
It’s dangerous picking a winner in a game of such tight margins, but all things considered, I’m going for Barca to win it by a single goal.
Graham’s bet
Barcelona to win by exactly one goal – 4/1
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Graham Hunter: Brain freezes and a lenient ref will cost Barcelona in El Clasico
You probably know of Sir Isaac Newton thanks to his famous First Law which, if you discard the mathematical theorem, simply says: “The Clásico will be all about Ronaldo and Messi again.”
But he patented another important physical rule, lesser known, which is that ‘for every action there will be an equal and opposite reaction’.
Isaac was a big football fan, hooked on Revista de la Liga and a regular Paddy Power punter. Had he been around today he’d be telling you to look at the last five years of FC Barcelona’s play to find the proof of his scientific doctrine. Particularly ahead of Saturday’s Clásico.
Under Pep Guardiola Barcelona pushed so hard against errors that, particularly in the biggest games, they practically eliminated them.
Tiki-taka and clusterf***s
Despite playing the most intricate, most difficult, highest-paced technical football we have probably ever seen (and I do mean ever) Guardiola’s Barça consistently chose the right passes, pressed and robbed the ball in the right way, moved off the ball with unrelenting intelligence and alternated between killing off the opponent and killing the tempo of the match with computer-like reliability.
Moreover, particularly in Clásicos, Barcelona displayed a shark-like hunger to wait for and then exploit even the most minor miscalculation or slip in concentration Madrid showed.
The last year of football at the Camp Nou, without Guardiola, has evidenced the equal and opposite reaction pushing right back. And often pushing harder.
From the first Guardiola-free Clasico, which was August 2012, until now there have been six Barça-Real Madrid meetings of which the Catalans have won one.
More importantly for fans of Newton, and those who like a well informed punt, Barcelona have committed a series of catastrophic goal-errors.
Barcelona brain freeze
From the moment in the first post-Guardiola Clasico when Iker Casillas makes an extraordinary save face to face with Xavi, which would have left the home side 4-1 up, it starts.
Madrid chase a ‘lost’ ball all the way up the pitch, Victor Valdés has a brain freeze, Di Maria nips possession off his toes and scores for 3-2. You wouldn’t see it in a primary school playground.
Mascherano and Piqué succumbing to the long ball to concede twice in the return game and Adriano getting himself sent off for a last man challenge – a series of positional errors. They lose 2-1.
In the first Liga Clasico last season, a belter of a match in the event, Dani Alves doesn’t mark Ronaldo, and Valdés is surprised at his near post for Madrid’s first goal. At the second Adriano lumberingly plays Ronaldo onside for 2-2, Barcelona having protected their lead for all of five minutes. Ahead twice, no better than a point.
When Madrid stroll home 3-1 at the Camp Nou last January to win the Copa semi final Piqué dives into a penalty tackle, Puyol falls over in front of Di Maria’s dribble for the second goal and Varane is unmarked for the header which adds salt in the wound.
Then in the second Liga Clasico, when Barcelona play and behave as if they know their goose is cooked, Morata goes completely unchallenged down the left to cross for Benzema who’s unmarked at the back post to score.
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Errors, errors everywhere
Eleven horrible errors which all either allow extremely avoidable goals or bring a red card – in the space of just one year and six Clasicos.
What they mask is that during considerable periods in the Supercup ties, the first league Clasico and particularly the 1-1 first leg Copa semi final tie, Barça played some top quality, creative, inventive football which carried threat and seemed to indicate that their collective confidence against Madrid was undamaged without Guardiola.
But their ferocity, their attention to detail and their intensity was.
Piqué explains it best.
“Historically Barcelona has been behind Real Madrid. During the last 10 or 15 years there has emerged an extraordinary generation of players without whom we couldn’t have inverted the situation as we have regularly. We can’t spend what they do. Then there is Pep. The best coach I’ve had, particularly in terms of analyzing an opponent.
“It felt like he’d been watching videos of them for 24 hours every day. Before a match he’d say, ‘look, they play like this, or like that and we’ll have to shift a little to the left or the right in order to blunt them .. and then we’ll attack like this…’. He created a defined identity in how we thought and we played. It was the same away to Granada, away to Malaga or on a pitch covered in puddles. Pep really created this team.”
His absence created a vacuum into which Madrid strode.
But signs that things are changing under Tata
These last few weeks while the Catalan press has been scratching around for things to complain about there have been signs that while Tata Martino is no Guardiola, nor pretends to be, he’s been true to his word in what he wants to restore. Greater concentration, better pressing (albeit less high up the pitch) exploiting the occasional long diagonal pass aimed at Neymar and more regular shooting from distance in order to vary the attack.
He goes into this game with some doubts.
Is it simply because Messi has missed a couple of weeks with a thigh problem that he’s looked subdued during his minutes on the pitch against Osasuna and Milan this week?
Will Piqué, who has played with consistency, good judgement and strength this season, be fit to start having felt hamstring pain on Tuesday in Milan?
Should Pedro or Cesc start up front with Alexis allowed to play as an impact sub when the game is stretched?
And, importantly, what kind of game will referee Undiano Mallenco allow?
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Real Madrid have won all games under this ref
Without a hint of suggesting he might be biassed it remains a fact that Barcelona’s players think he’s allowed Madrid too much freedom to play physically, allowed them to gain an intimidatory edge in the recent Clásicos he’s taken charge of – all of which Madrid have won. (1-0 in the Copa Final of 2011, 1-2 in Guardiola’s final Clásico and 1-3 in the Copa semi-final last season)
In signing Neymar, but nobody else, Barcelona effectively made one of two statements: Either they think that they already ‘own’ the remedy to the embarrassing run of one win in six Clásicos or they think that the Liga, Copa and Champions League can be won irrespective of how they perform against Los Blancos.
Recently they’ve been victims of Madrid’s greater height, power and athleticism plus street-smarts, concentration and cutting edge. Quite a list.
But, despite Madrid both cutting the points gap in the league this week (a win would put them equal top) and registering a third straight Champions League win they do not yet look as error free as they became against Barça in Mourinho’s last 18 months.
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Some ‘dark horse’ betting tips
At the time of writing the sides shape up like this…
- Real Madrid: Diego, Carvajal, Ramos, Varane, Marcelo: Khedira, Illarramendi, Modric: Bale, Ronaldo, Di Maria.
- Barça: Valdés, Alves, Puyol, Bartra/Piqué, Adriano: Xavi, Busquets, Iniesta: Pedro, Messi, Neymar.
Hopefully the football will be glorious. Hopefully the side you back wins.
Some ‘dark-horse’ ideas? Tata Martino asking his side to shoot from distance more often does offer a chance of Busquets or Alves being a high-odds anytime scorer. Bale is by no means sure to start but in his intermittent time on the pitch he’s put shots on target, created a penalty and scored from Dani Carvajal’s cross.
Neymar will start as favourite to garnish his Clásico debut with a goal … but it’s feasible that Bale might end his rather frustrating start to life in La Liga, and making himself a bit of a Madrid legend in the process, by putting one in the Barça net.
To me it looks like another Bishop Desmond game. 2-2.
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El Clasico betting preview: I’m tipping Ronaldo to score but Barca won’t lose
If any of the maths teachers I inadvertently tortured at Cults Academy are either still alive or not in the padded cell of a warm, caring asylum, driven there in foaming rage by my inability to assimilate basic numeric rules, they’ll be shocked rigid that this week’s column centres on numbers. Or at least statistics. Make of them what you will.
There are human stories aplenty ahead of the 83rd La Liga ‘Clasico’ at the Camp Nou when Barcelona entertain Real Madrid this Sunday night.
- Sergio Ramos is sticking long, sharp knitting needles in a wax effigy of Jose Mourinho while the Special One is affecting nonchalance.
- Carles ‘Robocop’ Puyol has suffered his third major injury of the season (fractured cheek, knee ligaments and now dislocated elbow)
- Gerard Pique’s ankle is (at the time of writing) making him look as stable as Bambi on ice skates.
This means Barca will take to the field at the Camp Nou with a pair of central defenders who are as quick on the turn as a ‘Thatcher at a Party Political Conference‘ (it’s a technical football term).
Good luck Javi Mascherano and Alex Song. Win, lose or draw, have two aspirins and a wee brandy waiting for you in the dressing room at full time.
IRON MAN: But Puyol misses El Clasico after his freak Champions League injury
We’ve had two classic Clasicos already
Already this term we’ve savoured two classic Clasicos. I defy anyone to argue that the explosive cocktail of brilliant football, errors, passion, noise, red cards and bookings wasn’t utterly seductive during Madrid’s 4-4 away-goals trophy win back in August.
Now, here we are again.
This first Clasico is weeks earlier than normal (more than two months earlier than last season) to allow the second league meeting to take place before the crucial moment in April. Then, both clubs want to be competing in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals but don’t want to be left looking like the cast of Dad’s Army (something which cost each of them dearly against Chelsea and Bayern Munich six months ago).
That, in itself, tells you something about the degree to which the vast economic attraction of success in Europe is beginning to edge ahead of the absolute need for domestic supremacy.
So it’s even more surprising that we hit this ‘early bird’ Clasico with Barcelona already enjoying an eight-point cushion over their rivals. Just 26 times in the 83 Liga Clasicos at Camp Nou have Barcelona kicked off with any points advantage at all over Madrid.
MANE MAN: Cristiano Ronaldo has a formidable record against Barcelona
Barcelona on top in recent derbies
Of the last 17 Clasicos (2008-now), at either stadium, Barcelona have won 10 and only lost three. That’s a remarkable statistic which might point to pundits and punters alike backing the home side on Sunday – particularly given that a victory would put Barça a massive 11 points clear of, traditionally, their most dedicated rival for the Spanish title.
Whether establishing that double-figure gap as early as October could feasibly rule Madrid out of repeating their Liga win of last season (I’d say ‘yes’) remains to be seen. However, the only precedent for Barcelona taking an exact eight-point advantage into the first Clasico is from 1990/91. Then, the Catalans won 2-1 and did indeed go on to lift the title.
Nevertheless, what that positive win-ratio for Barça over the last 17 meetings hides is the equally remarkable fact that Los Blaugrana have regularly tied their hands behind their back before, often, going on to inflict damage on Los Blancos.
For example, on nine of those occasions Madrid have scored first. If you add the missed penalty by Samuel Eto’o in Pep Guardiola’s first ‘derbi’ against Madrid as Barcelona coach when the score was 0-0, it’s evidence that Barca like to do things the hard way.
Obviously there was a long spell when that didn’t matter. It became as if Barça either chose to, or needed to handicap themselves before kicking into action. Now things have changed. Even across the first few meetings when Jose Mourinho was in charge, Madrid mostly played Barcelona without any clear conviction that they were going to win… nor even to compete to win. That has been shrugged off, particularly at Camp Nou where there is no impetus for Real Madrid to make the play, where they can inflict their rapid transitions from either defence when a Barca attack breaks down or when they rob the ball in midfield, Madrid are once again clear in what they need to do and confident in their ability to do it.
HE’S COME A LONG WAY: Iniesta (pictured in 2003) has yet to lose a Clasico in which he’s scored
If Los Blancos are allowed a lead these days, they are likely to convert it. Just at this moment they are patently only beginning to approach their very best. There has been a gradual return towards pace, precision, focus, aggression and efficacy but the champions spent some weeks a distance off their ‘A’ game.
For Barcelona Leo Messi is playing frustratingly deep and doesn’t look as crisp as usual. Messi has still produced 10 goals this season and has conjured his team’s last four assists. He’s different gravy. Equally, Andrés Iniesta, who is still to lose any match for Spain or Barcelona where he has scored, is only just back after injury – can he be a determining factor?
The balance of probabilities is that the pattern of the last five Camp Nou Clasicos offers a good guide.
Results of the last five Camp Nou games between Barcelona and Real Madrid
- 1-1 (Champions League)
- 3-2 (Supercopa)
- 2-2 (Copa)
- 1-2 (Liga)
- 3-2 (Supercopa)
Tight games, single goal winning margins. This game isn’t only called El Clasico, it’s also known as ‘El Derbi‘ and, like all great derby matches, totally remarkable things can happen.
But having said that, Ronaldo now has four goals in his last four Camp Nou visits. He also has two consecutive hat-tracks – against Deportivo La Coruna and Ajax. Ronaldo is beginning to re-establish the partnership he most enjoys at Real Madrid, with Karim Benzema.
I’d pick CR7 to score again, for there to be at least one red card, Barcelona not to lose and the league to go to them if they win. There, that’s that sorted. Now all you need to do is stock up on the beer, the chorizo nibbles, get your punt sorted, then relax and watch all of that come true word for word.
Hasta Domingo!
- More Graham Hunter columns
Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight on La Liga can regularly be seen and heard on TV and radio. He also writes for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football. Follow Graham on twitter here.
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Barca to edge El Clasico
Spain’s two giants, Real Madrid and Barcelona, meet again on Wednesday, this time in the Copa Del Rey, and both sides will be looking to get one over on their bitter rivals (Real Madrid 13/8, drew 23/10, Barca 13/10 – match prices).
Barcelona have once again dominated the ‘Clasicos’ this season coming out on top over two legs in the Super Cup in August before coming back from an early goal down to win 3-1 and silence the Bernabeu crowd in December.
However, despite their apparent weakness when it comes to facing Barca, Real Madrid certainly have the talent to beat them and possess arguably the world’s best squad. Furthermore, while other coaches sometimes demean certain competitions, Jose Mourinho always goes out to win every game and is sure to put out a strong side.
After so many disappointing displays against the Catalan club, it is surely time for Madrid’s talisman Cristiano Ronaldo (9/2 first goalscorer) to produce a world class performance against the ‘Blaugrana’. The Portuguese star seems to play well for his side every week but has hit the buffers against Barca. It often appears as if he trying too hard in these matches rather than playing his natural game but having scored the winner in last season’s Copa Del Rey final, he may feel less pressure and could finally show his class in possible the biggest club game in world football.
On the other hand, Barcelona will of course be full of confidence going into the match and after yet another stunning year in 2011, will be looking at Wednesday’s match as the perfect chance to get 2012 off in the same vain.
Pep Guardiola has so many stars to pick from with world class players in defence, midfield and attack. However, three time Ballon D’Or winner Lionel Messi (9/2 first goalscorer) must surely be their one to watch. The little Argentine is undeniably the planet’s greatest talent and unlike Ronaldo always plays well on the big stage. He also has a superb scoring record against the Madristas and will be an almost certain bet to continue his run at the Bernabeu.
However, for all their dominance, Barca may have one weak link on Wednesday and that will be in goal where Antonio Pinto is likely to star ahead of Victor Valdes. The veteran only plays in the Copa Del Rey and Guardiola appears to be loyal to him whoever they face in the competition. However, he is not in the same class as Valdes and has a habit of making big mistakes. His performance could prove vital and will undoubtedly have a bearing on the game.
With the game being played over two legs neither team will want to give too much away in the first meeting meaning it could be a tight encounter. However, with Xavi and Andres Iniesta in their side Barca can unlock any defence, however tight and should just nick it (Barcelona 9/1 to win 2-1).
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