Colombia

The main talking point of the finals so far has been the failure of the host nation Argentina to register a victory from their opening two matches, against Bolivia and the Colombians.

This has resulted in angry protests from the press and supporters of Argentina and there have now been reports of in-fighting within coach Sergio Batista’s squad.

However, while Colombia’s strong defence held them to a goalless draw on Wednesday, Costa Rica rose to the challenge and defeated Bolivia the following evening to leave them third in Group A and in great danger of an early exit.

Argentina’s anxiousness will not be eased by the prospect of seeing Colombia face bottom side Bolivia on Sunday, knowing one of two quarter-final places will be taken up if they manage even a draw from that game (5/2 Draw 90 Minutes).

Los Cafeteros have shown good signs as a team capable of going possibly winning the tournament and confident defender Mario Yepes insisted that they are ‘well on their way’.

Dario Gomez’s Colombia might have Europe’s most prolific striker in the shape of FC Porto’s Radamel Falcao (Evens Anytime Goalscorer) and his creative team-mate Fredy Guarin, but that pairing have been put firmly in the shade by a resolute defence which has kept six clean sheets in their last nine games (11/10 To Keep A Clean Sheet).

The previous 12 games involving Colombia have failed to produce more than 2.5 goals so, while they don’t score many, opposition teams will always have to work over-time to breach their rearguard (15/8  1 or Less – Total Goals).

That leaves Bolivia with a tall order to secure the win they require to stay in with a chance of progressing to the quarter-finals and do Argentina a favour in the process.

La Verde have something in common with Colombia, in that they have only scored one goal in their opening two games – but they have conceded three which will be a concern to coach Gustavo Quinteros.

Bolivia have also failed to win so far in 2011 with four defeats and three draws from seven games since February, including the two matches played in the Copa America.

Therefore, despite it being a must-win encounter for them (Bolivia 9/2 To Win 90 Minutes), it seems highly likely that their involvement will come to an end on Sunday while Colombia will progress into the last-eight.

Prediction: Colombia To Win 90 Minutes @ 4/7

Value Bet: Guarin To Score & Colombia Win 1-0 Scorecast @ 35/1

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Four of the six encounters so far have ended in a draw which is synonymous with the first matches of group football in major tournaments as no team wants to be too gung-ho and risk seeing their hopes of progression dashed after just 90 minutes of action.

However, in the second matches of the three group fixtures teams start to come out of their shell in search of a win should they have not got off to a flying start.

And that is where Sergio Batista and his Argentina (Evens Copa America Winner) side find themselves going into their game against Colombia in Santa Fe after being held to a surprise 1-1 draw against Bolivia on Friday.

Colombia secured a typically narrow 1-0 win against Costa Rica in their opening match which puts the onus firmly on the hosts to go on the front-foot as a draw (16/5 Draw 90 Minutes) will keep them top of the pile and with one foot virtually in the quarter-finals.

Batista is not expected to make massive changes to his side as he will bank on Carlos Tevez and Lionel Messi (5/2 First Goalcsorer) showing more of an understanding than they did against the Bolivians.

However, Friday’s goalscorer, Sergio Aguero is set to be rewarded with a start in place of Ezequiel Lavezzi, while Tevez’s Manchester City team-mate Pablo Zabaleta is set to get the nod ahead of Marcos Rojo at left-back.

Despite the mercurial talents of Messi and Tevez, Batista will be looking for Atletico Madrid hitman Aguero to again find his shooting boots against Colombia following his stunning match-saving volley in the opener.

Aguero scored 12 goals in the final 11 Spanish La Liga games of last season, while he has scored 10 in his last 13 matches for both club and country so should definitely be one to watch out for (4/5 Anytime Goalscorer).

Dario Gomez’s Colombia also have one of Europe’s most prolific strikers in the guise of Radamel Falcao (11/4 Anytime Goalscorer), who scored 33 times in 36 Portuguese Liga and Europa League appearances for Porto last term.

However, he struggled against a 10-man and youthful Costa Rica side due to a distinct lack of service, while his Porto team-mate Fredy Guarin also disappointed with a lack of creativity and wayward long distance efforts.

Once again Gomez had to rely on his stingy backline to ensure they got off to a winning start which continued their run of keeping five clean sheets in their last eight games.

Add to that the statistic that the previous 11 games involving Colombia have failed to produce more than 2.5 goals so, while they don’t score many, their opposition will always have to work over-time to breach their rearguard.

Taking all of these factors into consideration I don’t expect Colombia to risk losing by being too adventurous in the Argentina half of the field.

But with the hosts in desperate need of a win to avoid the risk of a humiliating Copa America exit in the group stages on home soil should carry them through to a narrow win.

Prediction: Argentina To Win 90 Minutes @ 4/11
Value Bet: Aguero S, Argentina To Win 1-0 Scorecast @ 12/1

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