Croatia

Group C was expected by many to be a stroll to the quarter-finals for Spain and Italy, but Croatia have made people sit up and take notice, with four points from their opening two games.

A 3-1 win over the Republic of Ireland was impressive but equally so was the way they battled back from a goal down to Italy, to claim what looks like a valuable point. Bilic is one of the few coaches to play with two main strikers and that has paid dividends to date for Croatia (9/2 Group C Winner).

Mario Mandzukic is the joint top scorer in tournament, with three goals, and although he picked up a knock in the draw with the Azzurri, he is expected to start the final group game. Alongside Everton’s Nikica Jelavic, the Wolfsburg frontman (10/1 Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer) has been part of arguably the most threatening strike force in the tournament.

Luka Modric’s play-making performances in midfield have also been lorded, while Ivan Rakitic looks a real threat breaking from the middle of the park.

Those two will have to be at the top of their game though if they are to out perform the best midfield in the tournament. Spain’s Xavi, Xabi Alonso, Andreas Iniesta and David Silva are still the benchmark for opponents and they will again try to pull the strings in the middle of the park.

Despite firing in four goals in a comfortable win over the Irish, they still don’t convince everyone that they have the cutting edge to make history and collect a third major championship in a row.

It’s far too early to say Fernando Torres (11/8 To Score At Anytime) is back to his best and Vicente Del Bosque’s decision to play without a striker against Italy indicates he is not confident that he has a major weapon up front.

A big question from their second match remains – were Spain that good or were Ireland that bad? One plus for the world champions was that some of their squad players were given some experience of championship football and didn’t look out of place.

Croatia’s ability to keep possession, as well as pressurising the ball, will test Spain (Match Betting – Croatia 7/1, Draw 15/8, Spain 8/11) and give us a better idea of where both teams are and whether Croatia are a threat when making a shortlist of potential winners in what looks like a wide-open competition.

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Italy began the tournament well with an impressive 1-1 draw against Spain although, after taking the lead in that clash, they may now look back on Sunday as a great chance to have beaten the reigning European champions wasted.

But, all the same, they still head to Poznan in upbeat mood ahead of what will be another test of their credentials against Croatia. Substitute Antonio Di Natale’s strike in Gdansk set them on their way against La Roja and he is in contention to start for Cesare Prandelli’s side with question marks over whether Manchester City striker Mario Balotelli will keep his place in the starting XI alongside Antonio Cassano.

Balotelli, backable at 5/2 to score anytime, dwelled on the ball when through on goal on Sunday to allow Spain defender Sergio Ramos to get back and make a last-ditch tackle and there have been calls in Italy for the coach to play Di Natale from the start after his impressive second-half appearance.

Other than that possible change, Prandelli intends to field largely the same side which did well against Spain although there is the possibility that the Azzurri may also go with a more defensive-minded left-back in Federico Balzaretti to counter the threat Croatia pose down the right with Darijo Srna and Ivan Rakitic.

If Italy can match their weekend performance, they have every right to believe a win is theirs for the taking on Thursday but there remains a fragility in the squad that Croatia can exploit.

Slaven Bilic’s men excelled against an admittedly limited Irish side in their opener, keeping the ball well and creating plenty of good chances. In fact, they should have won by more than the 3-1 scoreline and could be a real threat in the tournament if they build on that win and improve further.

Mario Mandzukic’s impressive brace has led to speculation that he could be on his way to the Premier League this summer where his strike partner, Nikica Jelavic, is already doing the business for Everton. Those two are a formidable partnership and the Italy defence will need to be on their toes to keep them quiet.

Luka Modric dictated the game from midfield against Ireland and Andrea Pirlo, who would like to do the same for Italy in this one, will have his work cut out just tracking the Spurs ace such was the ground he covered on Sunday.

Bilic is unlikely to make changes after praising the way his players performed against Ireland and expect them to again play an expansive, attacking game in Poznan.

These two sides look fairly well-matched, then, ahead of the Group C clash and a moment of brilliance from the likes of Modric or Balotelli may just decide it.

A draw at 11/5 is appealing but Croatia can edge it to virtually secure qualification and, at the same time, leave Italy staring at an early return home. Go for 2-1 in the correct score at 12/1.

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