Our marker is down, from now until the end of the qualification campaign in 2015 it’s ours. You can’t have it.

Which Groucho position? This one.

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“I sent my club a wire stating, ‘Please accept my resignation – I don’t want to belong to any club that will accept me as a member’ – Groucho.

Euro 2016 is the tournament that it’s ‘impossible’ not to qualify for, right?

No dress code, no age restrictions, never mind whether the bouncer has you on the guest list, not just for the in-crowd – if you’re not at this party it’s a guaranteed eternity of embarrassment.

Particularly, for Scotland, if elimination is at the hands of Ireland. Again.

And the most stylish way of pretending we never actually cared that much would be the Groucho position. ‘Better things to do in summer 2016′, grass to cut, handicap needs trimming – wouldn’t want to be part of a devalued Euro anyway..’

‘Twenty six teams? Ridiculous’

It left a Mark

What’s that I hear you asking? Why particularly embarrassing to exit to the Irish?

Well with all due respect, on behalf of my nation, we hold a grudge. A really big, nasty, festering, Friday night on Sauchiehall street after a good few bevvies one.

Never mind any gilding of the lily, Irish football really barely registered as a blip on anyone’s horizon before 1987. I’m nearly sure of that.

LAWR CHANGER: Lawrenson’s winner against Scotland changed both country’s sporting fortunes (pic: Inpho)

It all started with THAT win at Hampden Park. Firstly, the free kick from which ‘Lawro’ scored should never have been taken – half our defence was still lying prostrate on the turf, the ball was played about a kilometre from where the foul had been given. The ball was never stationary. The dopey Dutch referee dropped a clanger the size of County Clare.

Secondly, you boys in green have never, ever admitted that qualification for Euro ’88 was solely down to us. Well, to Gary Mackay, actually.

His gorgeous goal away to Bulgaria [27 years ago this week] PLUS those two points (of which we were robbed by big Jack’s smash and grab merchants at Hampden would have put us through to Germany ’88) put Stoichkov and co out. Ray Houghton, Lawro, Stapo and big Paul McGrath through.

Any thanks? Any acknowledgement? Any sheepish acceptance that Hampden was daylight robbery.

Not a dicky bird.

Not So Bravehearted

Moreover, I can’t be the only Scot whose friends in Ireland have been gleefully ‘roasting’ him over the last few months.

Yeah, yeah. Seb Coe and co would say that ‘sport and politics don’t mix – should never mix’. But they do.

I’m quite certain that many in Scotland shared my Independence Referendum experience – admirably malicious texts, phone calls and emails from Irish pals in the build-up demanding to know whether the Scots would have the ‘cojones’ to seize their chance for freedom from the yolk of Westminster as Ireland once did.

Then, with equally gleeful malevolence, mocking our failure to put the ball in the net when the goal was gapingly open after Scotland narrowly voted ‘no’ in September.

And even though there’s a heat about this game because ‘it’s about the points, stupid!’ [to coin a phrase stolen from George Bush], a heat because two extremely self-confident and brutally confident ex-Celtic managers do battle – I think there’s a cultural-sporting context for it which vastly heightens the importance.

During Scotland’s slide into sporting mediocrity, independent-Ireland have not only neatly stolen our identity as the world’s favourite cheeky Celtic nation – the boys in green have become a better Scotland than we ever were.

From that moment in spring 1987 when Tiger Economy Ireland clawed Scotland at Hampden they’ve shown us how we should have done it when we were the top Celtic-cats

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Once it was Scotland’s birthright to beat Sir Alf Ramsey’s England at Wembley in 1967 and declare ourselves world champions. To scare the bejaysus out of reigning world champions Brazil in the 1974 world cup and only let them escape with a 0-0 draw because Billy Bremner missed an open goal. To draw with Iran but then beat Holland [four years on from being finalists in 1974 and a fortnight away from reaching the final again in 1978]

Ireland took all that and topped it. That’s sore to admit.

The Green Eyed Monster

Qualifying when we can’t. Beating England at Euro ’88. Absolutely rocking Italia ’90, beating Italy at USA 94, shame-free spot-kick losers to Spain in the Japan-Korea knockout stages. Recipients of the ‘we love you, you plucky victim’ award from the entire world outside France when Thierry Henry mistook football for basketball in that World Cup playoff.

That’s our gallant loser trophy you’ve stolen, that’s OUR ‘best fans in the world’ title you’ve shamelessly robbed. Identity theft is a serious issue.

And when we look around for solace – we can’t look at rugby or cricket any more either.

From just a couple of weeks after ‘Operation Lawro’ at Hampden in ’87 and for the next twelve years Scotland met Ireland at Murrayfield and Landsdowne road fourteen times losing only once.

Proper domination.

But of the next eighteen Ireland have won twelve. Torture. Six Nations titles, a bloody Grand Slam [and, yes, even we cheered when Ronan O’Gara dropped-kicked Ireland into an emerald heaven].

With bat and ball against the Irish Scotland’s ODI record is lost eleven of fifteen and in Twenty20 it’s an embarrassing played three lost three.

ANOTHER BATTERING: Ireland are even dominating Scotland on the cricket field (pic: Inpho)

How the combined Shinty/Hurling contest is going I daren’t even look.

I don’t want to rope poor old Gordon Strachan into this rant of mine, he’s enough on his hands coping with street-smart Martin and the bragging-rights battle which [I have no doubt] is also at stake between the two former Celtic managers under whose swords, both as player and manager, the mighty have fallen.

But Gordon was in that team at Hampden in ’87 – watched his former Cup Winners Cup winning team mate Jim Leighton beaten by the ‘Lawro-goal’ which should never have stood.

He’ll want to put the world to rights. To put the cocky Celtic imposter back in it’s box. Then to send them a gilt-embossed card with the Groucho position beautifully printed on it so that, late next year, it’s the FAI who can post it on to Uefa and Michel Platini saying: ‘We never wanted to come to your party anyway’. Yours – The Boys In Green.

All together now: ‘You’ll never beat the Scottish’.

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Reading v Nottingham Forest

Reading’s record of eight wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 10 games is promotion form in anyone?s book and that is exactly what might happen on Tuesday evening.

A win for the Royal against Forest coupled with anything but a win for West Ham and Brian McDermott’s men will be plying their trade in the Premier League next term.

It has been a remarkable run from the Berkshire outfit and Friday’s 3-1 victory over Southampton proved beyond doubt that they are the best side in the division and deserve to both gain promotion and win the Championship title.

They will face a Forest side who are 19th in the table and, despite a decent record of having taken 15 points from their past 10 matches, should be no match for Reading on their own patch.

Adam Le Fondre is in red-hot form following his brace against the Saints and it would be fitting if he was to bag the winner and send Reading back to the Premier League after a four-year absence.

Defeat for Reading would not be a disaster as they will have two more games to seal promotion but it would be a brave man to back against a side that has won 14 of its last 16 games.

The Royals will find it a much tougher proposition in the top flight next season if they do make it but that will be the furthest thing from their mind if they get over the line on Tuesday, as the party will begin at the Madejski.

Odds: Reading 1/2, Forest 9/2, draw 11/4

Bristol City v West Ham

The Hammers looked like they would make an immediate return to the Premier League for three quarters of the season but a failure to win games when it matters has been their Achilles heel.

Sam Allardyce’s charges have won three of their last five matches and are still in with a decent shout of gaining second spot in the table but five successive draws in March means their fate is now out of their own hands.

If Southampton win their three remaining games then it will be the play-offs for the Hammers and all the pressure and heartache that the post-season brings.

Victory at Ashton Gate is therefore essential for the Londoners and that will not be easy to achieve as the Robins are fighting for their lives at the wrong end of the table.

They are four points clear of the relegation zone and three points next time out could see them secure Championship safety depending on how Coventry fare against Millwall.

City are unbeaten in five and have won two from three and a draw at fourth place Birmingham on Saturday proved that they are a side who do not intend to drop into League One.

West Ham do have the second best record away from home in the division, however, and so it will be a real test for Derek McInnes’ men to carry on their unbeaten run.

They do have a winnable game to follow with a home clash against Barnsley but the south west outfit would love to have their future sorted on Tuesday evening.

Odds: Bristol City 3/1, West Ham 8/11, draw 5/2

Peterborough v Southampton

Southampton had been on a similar run to Reading before coming a cropper at Blackpool on March 21 and that defeat seemed to knock the wind out of their sails.

A draw to local rivals Portsmouth was followed by victory over Crystal Palace but defeat to the Royals last time out means they have taken just four points from four games and let West Ham back in with a chance of beating them to the second automatic promotion spot.

But they do still have a three-point advantage over the East Enders and that it crucial at this late stage of the campaign.

Victory over the Posh in tandem with a defeat for the Hammers will give them, in golfing parlance, a dormie six-point advantage with two games to go and mean they are in pole position to return to the promised land.

The south coast club have been there or there abouts all season and deserve to go up without having to go through the play-offs, and will face a Peterborough side who are so close to securing their Championship survival.

One point should be enough to ensure they beat the drop due to their superior goal difference over those below them in the standings but the Peterborough fans will be glad that their heroes put some points on the board earlier this term as they have taken just four from their last six games with four defeats.

The players might already be ‘on their holidays’ but there are three games to go and they will want to finish on a positive note.

Posh have won 10 at home this season but it is hard to see them adding to that tally against Nigel Adkins’ men.

Odds: Peterborough 100/30, Southampton 4/6, draw 5/2

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The Favourites

Holland

The World Cup runners-up have continued to progress since losing to Spain in South Africa and are one of three teams with a 100% record. The Netherlands are the top goalscorers in qualifying, to date, with 21 goals in six Group E fixtures.

Bert van Marwijk’s men have brought the best out of two Premier League strikers, Dirk Kuyt and Robin van Persie, while Klass-Jan Huntelaar tops the scoring charts in qualifying with with eight goals.

The defence is still the main concern for those following the Netherlands, but they will be firm contenders next summer.

Outright Betting – Holland 13/2

Spain

The defending champions have eased through the qualifying campaign so far and top Group I. Spain have had some worrying moments though, with a hard-fought 3-2 win at Hampden Park, and then falling behind at home to the Czech Republic before clinching a 2-1 success.

They will undoubtedly be the team to beat again next summer, but the goalscoring department will their concern. David Villa has endured a tough end to the La Liga season, while Fernando Torres has scored just once since his £50million move from Liverpool in January. There is still plenty of time to put that right though!

Outright Betting – Spain 7/2

Germany

The young side that impressed and surprised so many in South Africa last summer are showing that their World Cup displays were not a flash in the pan. The Germans have won all five matches to date and conceded just one goal so far!

Group A looks one of the tougher groups, with Turkey, Belgium and Austria three of the other five teams, but Germany have taken a firm grip on top spot.

Veteran striker Miroslav Klose continues to bang in the goals, with eight to date, while Manuel Neuer at the other end is arguably the best keeper in Europe.

Outright Betting – Germany 9/2

The Outsiders

England

We say it every two years, but the Three Lions look to have a decent chance of a big tournament in Poland and Ukraine, with a good mixture of experience and youth. Now the ‘Golden Generation’ has been split up somewhat, the pressure may ease on Fabio Capello’s men going into the tournament.

After an appalling showing at last year’s World Cup, Capello has decided to blood some more young stars and the likes of Andy Carroll, Jack Wilshere and Joe Hart are shining in qualifying.

If England can see off Montengero in qualifying – both are on 10 points in Group G – there will be plenty of punters eyeing a big price on the 1996 semi-finalists.

Outright Betting – England 9/1

Russia

The 1988 runners-up are in a tough qualifying group but will fancy their chances of qualification, with four of their remaining five matches at home.

With thousands of Russian fans likely to make the short journey to the finals, their tournament matches will almost feel like home games!

In Dutchman Dick Advocaat, Russia have a shrewd tactician at the helm and they have plenty of firepower going forward, with the likes of Arshavin, Pavlychenko and Pogrebnyak.

Outright Betting – Russia 20/1

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Aside from those threatened with the drop over the weekend, most clubs would have had a good idea of their budgets for next term heading into the weekend and the majority of managers will have already handed their list of transfer targets to their respective chairmen and boards.

Scouts around the globe, meanwhile, will have been busily checking out talented youngsters and filing reports in the bid to unearth the next Cristano Ronaldo, Luis Suarez or Peter Odemwingie for their employers.

If you check totesport’s odds to win next season’s top domestic prize it will come as no surprise that they believe only five clubs have any sort of chance  of claiming Manchester United’s title in 2012 – and that includes Liverpool (11/1) who are tipped by many to be dark horses next term provided Kenny Dalglish is handed significant funds over the summer to turn a sixth-placed finish into a more respectable top-four challenge, such was the Scot’s impact back on Merseyside when he returned in the new year.

However, despite high hopes on the Kop that the Reds can challenge right at the top in 2011-12, the best they surely can hope for is to break back into the top four they used to reguarly be in under Rafa Benitez. Without the distraction of the Europa League next season, it does look a realistic aim for Dalglish’s men ahead of what is likely to be a busy summer of comings-and-goings at Anfield.

Chelsea (11/4 to win PL next season) faltered in the final run-in after getting themselves back into contention in March and April but that wasn’t enough to save Carlo Ancelotti his job and he was dumped by owner Roman Abramovic after a trophyless season, despite winning the double just 12 months ago in his first year in charge. It’s fair to say the loaded Russian’s definition of failure does not concur with pretty much the rest of the world.

So that leaves the Blues facing another transitional summer amid reports Guus Hiddink or even Jose Mourinho could return. With that in mind, and the futures of several key first-teamers up in the air, we boldly predict  – at the end of May – the best the Blues can achieve next season is second place again.

Arsenal (7/1), meanwhile, are likely to go one of two ways this summer:

Scenario 1 – The Gunners finally spend big money on a top-class goalkeeper, centre-half and a 25-goals-a-season striker to partner the fully-fit Robin van Persie and they confidently battle Manchester United for the title once again.

Scenario 2 – Arsene Wenger again refuses to spend what is required on the players he so obviously needs, Cesc Fabregas leaves on deadline day for Barcelona for £40million meaning there’s no time to find a replacement so they are left to fight over fourth with Liverpool and Spurs.

And that leaves us with City (3/1) and United (13/8).

Despite not being one of Sir Alex Ferguson’s most eye-catching of teams, the champions have demonstrated this season they have character, squad depth and no little quality to have eventually seen off all the other challengers without too many problems.

Expect just a couple of big-money arrivals as Fergie tweaks his squad slightly over the summer but, largely, the same group of players who have just lifted the title can again emerge as the ones to beat next season.

But, if City get it right in June and July, they might do just that instead.

Roberto Mancini has impressively managed to mould an expensively-assembled squad of players into an FA Cup-winning and top-four side, which is no mean feat considering he has had to deal with some apparently difficult characters – Carlos Tevez and Mario Balotelli to name but two.

If Tevez stays – which is not guaranteed – and also remains fit, he could well lead City on a real title charge next term. There are bound to be a few high-profile arrivals at Eastlands as well and, with the budget they have, more top-quality talent will only add further depth to the world-class pool of talent already in Mancini’s large squad.

So, with that in mind and, yes, it’s very early to say so, but 2011-12 may just be City’s season.

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