Let’s take track record. Thirty times in the last 25 years Barcelona have played Atletico away from home: 15 defeats, six draws only nine wins. Of those nine wins the vast majority have come since the Pep Guardiola-Leo Messi era began.

In other words, prior to this club’s re-birth with the brand of football which is now irrevocably associated with Barça and prior to the explosion of Messi as an all-time great, the Catalans almost always lost this fixture.

var random_images_array = [
'http://blog.paddypower.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/amish.jpg',
'http://blog.paddypower.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/wasps.jpg',
'http://blog.paddypower.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/mandela.jpg',
'http://blog.paddypower.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/sepp.jpg',
'http://blog.paddypower.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/vlad.jpg',
'http://blog.paddypower.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/juggler.jpg',
'http://blog.paddypower.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/butter.jpg'];

function getRandomImage(imgAr, path) {
var num = Math.floor( Math.random() * imgAr.length );
var img = imgAr[ num ];
var imgStr = ‘‘;
document.write(imgStr); document.close();
}

getRandomImage(random_images_array)

Playing Atleti away is a thorny, bruising business. Many teams end up looking like a ballet dancer trying to get to the bar for a campari ahead of sixteen lock-forward All-Blacks desperate for a beer.

More, the torrent of wins in the last seven years have only come when Barça are fit, confident, full of high tempo passing and defensively sound.

Usually the very best Barça take away is a single goal win. Not always, but predominantly.

So why should Saturday afternoon in the Calderón [literally the Cauldron!] be different.

• Can Atleti topple Barca? Bet now: Mobile | Desktop

Firstly, I don’t think that it’s impossible that Barcelona either draw or win. But here’s why Atleti should start favourites.

The champions take the pitch without Claudio Bravo, Gerard Piqué and Dani Alves.

The Champions can no longer call on the experience of Xavi and Pedro in this most thorny, boiling hot of matches. [NB one or other of the two played some minutes in each of Barcleona’s four wins over Atleti last season and Pedro gave Messi the assist for the 1-0 win in the last meeting which clinched the title for Luis Enrique’s side]

Do you consider absences like this small details?

Perhaps you do. Then bet against my guide.

• Shoot over to our latest Barca v Atleti odds now. Bet now: Mobile | Desktop

But let’s add something else.

Barcelona, with the exception of the European Supercup, haven’t been tucking their chances away with the normal deadly efficiency this season. In losing the Spanish Supercup people focused on Athletic thumping them at San Mames and drawing in the Camp Nou.

Yet Barcelona should, conservatively, have scored six times across those two games.

In winning 1-0 against Athletic and Málaga fewer chances were squandered, defensive rigour, stamina and speed of passing were restored but it’s still the case that the champions haven’t been hitting ramming speed.

Ter Stegen is a fine keeper but his pre-season has been bumpy, he conceded eight times in the two competitive games he played and this will be, remarkably enough, his La Liga debut.

He’s capable of excelling and repelling Atleti if it’s his day.

Good keeper, exceptional as a sweeper-keeper. But bang at the top of his game? Perhaps not quite.

The final element to take into account if you are going to back Barcelona for what would be a monumentally important and impressive away win concerns the strikers.

• Shoot over to our latest Barca v Atleti odds now. Bet now: Mobile | Desktop

The ‘Trident‘ is what truly sets Barcelona far apart from the madding crowd around Europe.

I don’t need to explain or promote their brilliance here. But both Neymar and Messi will be suffering the physical and mental tiredness of jet-lag after what Spain calls the ‘Fifa-virus’ [as will Mascherano at the back] while Luis Suárez will be free of that.

But Suárez needs games.

He thrives on three games a week and often just loses a knife-edge of deadly clinical finishing when he’s deprived of competitive football – as he has been now for a fortnight.

Again, could he buck that trend and score/make?

Yes, certainly.

And, pound for pound, Messi’s 23 goals in 26 meetings with Atleti is probably his most impressive domestic performance.

But are they right at their sharpest?

Saturday’s Game:

Atleti? Likely to be Oblak: Juanfran, Jimenez, Godín, Felipe: Gabi, Koke, Oliver, Tiago: Griezmann, Torres/Jackson

Barça? Likely Stegen, Sergi Roberto, Vermaelen, Mascherano, Alba: Rakitic, Busquets, Iniesta: Neymar, Suárez, Messi.

Griezmann didn’t score in four defeats to Barcelona last season but with La Real had both a decent scoring and winning record. He’s on fire right now.

• Shoot over to our latest Barca v Atleti odds now. Bet now: Mobile | Desktop

An obvious ‘anytime’ scorer bet at 9/5.

So is Messi but maybe there’s a dark horse in Rakitic. He loves the big games – not only the Champions League final v Juve but goals v Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Porto, Bayern as well as three v Atletico across his career.

Finally, Barcelona were excelled at defending the ball into the box last season but have been weak in pre-season and their regular games so far. And with Piqué missing, plus Stegen’s tendency to come for something and not be a stone-cold certainty to get there then Atleti’s Godín, Torres or Giménez might reward you with a header.

Score draw anyone?

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Football, the ultimate team sport, is once again under his thumb.

Since January 4 this year Juve, as a squad, have scored 60 times in all three of their competitions.

Since January 4 Messi, alone, has scored 36 and given 14 goal assists – it’s completely remarkable.

• Shoot over to all the latest Champions League final odds on desktop | mobile 

He ripped up the Copa del Rey final last weekend with two beautiful goals and a clever part in the third.

When the big games arrive – so does Lionel Andrés.

One of my early interviews with him was Autumn 2006 when he was admitting that it had been a flash of temper which made him refuse to go down to the pitch in Paris and celebrate with his team mates after Barça beat Arsenal in the Champions League final.

Not being named in the match squad by Frank Rijkaard had absolutely infuriated him.

He closed that subject with a:

God willing I’ll be back to lift that trophy a few times in the future.

Well, he’s had the opportunity twice and in both 2009 and 2011 he took that opportunity by scoring past Edwin Van Der Sar twice.

Not a bad record. (Ex Juventus keeper Van Der Sar was 38 when he first conceded to Messi in a Champions League final, Gigi Buffon is 37).

But add this context. Messi has played in 23 ‘final’ matches for Barcelona – 12 ‘one-off’ finals and 11 other ‘home-and-away’ finals. 23 matches … 20 Messi goals.

Of those 18 finals he’s only lost three.

And it might guide you to know that the only one-game finals Barcelona have lost with Messi in their side are the ones where he hasn’t scored – the 2006 Spanish Supercup and the Spanish Copa finals of 2011 and 2014.

Stop Messi and you have a chance – that’s the message.

During 2015 he’s shown his big-game mentality. Goals home and away against the reigning champions – Atlético. Goals in key matches against Valencia, Sevilla, Athletic and the Catalan derby with Espanyol plus a nifty assist for the first goal against Madrid in the Clásico.

Notwithstanding all that – IF you want to oppose him, oppose Barça then perhaps there’s a gentle hint.

He’s gone from having scored eight in six Champions League games during the 2014 group stage to having scored twice in six games in the 2015 knock-out matches.

Okay – he was just stunning despite not scoring in the home win over Manchester City

And the two he did get, plus an assist, were in the epic 3-0 semi-final win over Bayern.

But, figure it as you wish, there’s been a drop-off in him hitting the net in the Champions League this calendar year.

So, how do you rate the test that lies in front of him?

He’s never played Juventus competitively, never played Italy either. Thus it is that despite he and Buffon having played well over 1500 competitive club and international matches between them they’ve never gone toe-to-toe.

Who wins – the good big one or the great little one? Lucky it’s not boxing.

Might Buffon (below) in any way intimidate Messi – it’s not so ludicrous?

Messi’s penalty misses tend to come against keepers he thinks loom large in the goal. Something he once told me about Abbiatti at Milan.

• Shoot over to all the latest Champions League final odds on desktop | mobile 

Speaking of Milan, Messi’s faced the defensive strategies of Juve coach Maxi Allegri eight times in the Champions League when he’s been in charge of the Rossoneri. Eight times, eight goals.

Where else might there be some fun? I pointed out last week that Barcelona have just begun to drift a little from nearly an entire season of excellence defending set plays or the ball into the box from open play.

But conceding like that to Bayern, Deportivo La Coruña and now Athletic [Iñaki Williams] in the Copa final tends to indicate that this is where Juve will surely concentrate. Chiellini, Pogba, Vidal, Morata all look like goalscorer candidates.

Of the two golden veterans, Pirlo (above) and Xavi, only the Italian is sure to start. But is Iniesta fully fit after his calf problem? Might Xavi get some game time? Probably, yes.

Pirlo scoring a direct free kick ain’t the daftest idea, Pirlo perhaps winning the MVP [if there’s a market on that] isn’t outright crazy.

Xavi said last week:

I adore watching Pirlo play, we’ve been facing each other for club and country since we were kids.

They’ll probably be playing together in Qatar from next season.

So, Xavi? Well he has a remarkable record. Goal assists in each of the two Champions League finals in which he’s played. A goal assist in each of the two European Championship Finals in which he’s played.

A goal and a goal-assist in two of this three Copa Finals against Athletic Bilbao, a goal against Juventus the last time they faced each other, a goal assist in the World Cup semi final, a goal and an assist in the World Club Cup final.

If he’s on the pitch at any stage on Saturday night then you might want to back him as an anytime goalscorer.

This is quite possibly Barcelona’s tightest final since Sampdoria took them to extra-time in 1992.

I reckon both teams to score. Then either 2-1 Barcelona or 2-2 and penalties. But if Messi wants it, if Messi performs – don’t back against him. It’s that simple.

Graham’s best bets:

• Both teams to score and Barcelona to win @13/5
• Barcelona to win 2-1 @ 12/1. 

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

• Villarreal 15/4, Real Madrid 4/6, Draw 3/1 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Villarreal wins over Real Madrid come along about as often as a Scottish Independence referendum so it’s very tempting just to vote ‘No!’ here without listening to the debate.
The last time that fabled event took place Manchester City wasn’t even a gleam in Manuel Pellegrini’s eye and Real Madrid still heaped faith and optimism in Lassana Diarra and Royston Drenthe – whatever happened…… Never mind.

It was May 2009, just the second such triumph in their history and only three players from that night, Casillas, Bruno and Cani, can repeat this weekend. Each of them holds the potential to be a major participant.

Carlo Ancelotti (below), right now, is forcing all of us who pay attention to Spanish football to mimic him, in raising our left eyebrows like caterpillars ascending Alpe D’Huez for the Geometrid King of the Mountain’s title. Just over a week ago this most affable of Italian football godfathers began to snap and snarl at people who asked him about the goalkeeping situation. ‘No debate, I’m not getting into all that – Iker is the first team keeper and we won’t be rotating like last season’. Two games later he rotate the keepers.

Or… did he?

With Madrid’s home fans split down the middle over whether to chant in support of San Iker [Saint Iker] or whistle and jeer him, Casillas was left out against Elche. Rotated? Dropped? Keylor came in, did fine but basically had no work. Now Ancelotti says that he will not be playing one keeper in the Bernabeu and another in away matches but will not, either, confirm which of the two will be in the starting XI against Villarreal. [Iker I reckon]

So, what the hell is he up to?

As for Bruno he’s one of the most hard-working, agile and smart midfielders without a high profile in Spanish football. A local boy, he’s someone who could take advantage of the fact that while Toni Kroos is now the ‘organising midfielder’ he does have a tendency to go walkabout.

Then there’s Cani. Rested for Villarreal’s last game, 1-1 at Eibar, he has the aggression, height, know-how and ambition to produce something special on the big occasion, just as he did a year ago on Gareth Bale’s debut, here, in a 2-2 result which ultimately helped cost Madrid the title.

But, don’t ignore the obvious. Ronaldo (below) loves scoring at Villarreal – five in his last four visits – and he’s also hit seven in his last two Liga matches (4/9 to score anytime). The Submarine have three draws a defeat and a comeback win having trailed 0-2 at home to struggling Rayo to show for the weeks after shining in the Europa League qualifying. Imposing themselves and winning is costing them the world at the moment.

Gio Dos Santos is near to return, 20 year old ‘Lucky’ Luciano Vietto scored twice last week to open his account and Uche is working like a dog to supercede his injuries….. but it’ll take a strange twist of events if Madrid don’t add to their wee run of victories, even if at a reduced margin. Ronaldo (4/9 anytime) and Bale (10/11 anytime) to score and see them through.

Barcelona [1st] v Granada [8th] – Saturday 5pm

• Barcelona 1/8, Granada 20/1, Draw 7/1 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Football is rock n roll, football grabs the senses, puts them in a high rev spin and returns them to you at the end of 90 minutes – football is a Ryder Cup-high every weekend. Football is king of sports. So let me make your adrenalin soar and your pulse rate rip through the Stock Aitken and Waterman hi-energy beats per minute.

Barcelona and Granada had 67% and 59% of possession in their midweek games … and neither team even managed one paltry effort on target. ‘Football, bloody hell’ [© SAF] Barcelona regularly struggle to beat Granada by more than a single goal and they lost to them last season [1-0] in a match where they bombarded the penalty area but could have been there until August without scoring.

More, Barça’s Messi-dependency has grown over the last year and a bit.

If he’s on form, either as an assist-giver or scorer, Barcelona will beat most sides and become trophy contenders. If not, and he once again looked sluggish and tired in midweek even before Malága defender Weligton proved that not only can his parents not spell, he can’t read the rules of football [Clue: it’s NOT WWF] they huff and puff.

Does this paint as a possible banana-skin game for the home side?

Granada don’t concede much, they beat the Catalans last season, they’ve a healthy eight point total already and their coach, Joaquín Caparrós is one savvy dude with a wealth of La Liga know-how. Luis Enrique says: ‘I expect a complicated rival. ‘They are very strong defensively. ‘They work hard, they are smart at set pieces and they counter-attack well. ‘This’ll be the same as almost all our games this season’

Mebbe so. I’ve got a slightly different view. Granada not only were beaten at home in midweek [Levante] they were battered the previous game when winning in Bilbao on a day when they could and should have conceded about five. Barcelona were strangled all over the pitch by a super-industrious Malága midweek – it was one of those which looked like 14 men playing 11.

But the first thing which Caparrós targeted in criticising his team’s midweek slump was their intensity. Their work rate, their concentration but above all their intensity.

If they repeat that and fail to learn from Malága’s excellence – they’ll be beaten. In Jhon Córdoba (5/1 anytime) and El Arabi (9/2 anytime), Granada have two big, quick strikers capable of running beyond Barcelona’s extremely high defensive line – can Bravo keep his goal secure [none conceded in the league thus far] and head towards a record? He’s 8/13 to keep a clean sheet.

Andrés Iniesta (above) hasn’t shone yet and needs to – this is just the type of game in which he might open his account (2/1 anytime) but Ivan Rakitic, who’ll take some of the free kicks and who’s not scared of a shot from distance, might add to the one he scored last week at Levante (2/1 anytime).

Sandro (10/11 anytime), if he gets more game time, looks a little sharper in front of goal than Munir (4/5 anytime) right now which is worth noting.

Atlético [3rd] v Sevilla [1st] – Saturday 7pm

• Atletico 8/11, Sevilla 15/4, Draw 11/4 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Recently this has been a game where the Spanish league has, politely, asked all participants and management to check their holsters, knuckle-dusters, coshes and tasers in with the security guards at a desk outside each dressing room. To merely brand it ill-tempered would be like saying that the Clanton and Earp brothers didn’t turn out to be socially compatible and that the Campbell’s weren’t great neighbours to Clan MacDonald.

The last six games between the sides have been Football at the OK Corral. They’ve produced 37 bookings, nine red cards [six of which have been straight reds] and five penalties. Very nearly a card of one colour or other every eleven minutes. All bar one of the games have been under the control of Diego Simeone (below) and Unai Emery.

But a couple of the game’s bad boys have moved on – Medel, Diego Costa, Filipe Luis for example. More, when this weekend’s ref, Snr Gonzalez Gonzalez was last in charge of the fixture it was like the Peace Games and white doves were released over the stadium at the end.Right in the middle of this run of undisguised ill-feeling he managed to see the 90 minutes through with only six bookings – ie no reds, no penalties. Can this ref keep things calm again?

Rumours that he put bromide in the players’ tea pre-match are quite unconfirmed.

So, this weekend. Sevilla are joint top, two points ahead of Los Colchoneros and Simeone’s side have looked irregular in draws with Celta and Rayo plus that Champions League defeat in Athens. But beware. Over these six back-alley skirmishes there have been 18 goals only five of which were scored by Sevilla who’ve managed no better than two draws and four defeats.

Carlos Bacca has been Sevilla’s touchstone for big goals this season [and last] but he didn’t score in either meeting with Atleti last term and was subbed off both times. Is he ready for this intensity this time? Is the slight slackness which Atletico are showing [they went behind against Celta at home last week and then gifted a really stupid penalty for the equalizer] the sniff of an opportunity which the Colombian requires? He’s 12/5 to score anytime if so.

Atletico are still scoring almost all their goals from set plays [six out of seven in the league], the majority headers, so it’s still worth thinking about Raul Garcia (above, 9/4 anytime), Miranda (9/1 anytime) and Diego Godín (8/1 anytime) while for Sevilla, Stephane Mbia (11/1 anytime) just loves a big goal when he arrives late in the box.

Two significant returns. Diego Simeone’s back on the touchline after his ban … will that quieten down the feud or ratchet it up? and Mario ‘Don’t call me the Phantom of the Opera’ Mandzukic is available again thanks to his 65 gram carbon fibre mask to protect his badly fractured nose.

• Get the latest odds on all the La Liga games here: Desktop | Mobile

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

As opposed to the previous time these two behemoths of European football had met, in a European final which was one of the dullest, achingly-slow elite matches you could wish to suffer, that 2009 Champions League tie was jam-packed full of daring, energy, power and unfettered attacking.

The 1984 European Cup final was one of the ultimate lessons in the means justifying the end.

Mixing the velvet glove with the iron fist

When I was writing my book about the ‘Inside Story of La Roja’s Historic Treble’ I phoned Graeme Souness to talk about the role and skills of Madrid’s talented, creative central midfielder that day in Paris: one Vicente del Bosque.

He told me: “I looked back at that final a couple of months ago because Jamie Redknapp rang me to tell me it was on television. I realised, watching it after such a long time, that for players like del Bosque in Madrid’s midfield Liverpool must have been a nightmare to play against because we were already putting into practice many of the things which are in vogue now: pressing all over the pitch, full-backs pushed high up their touchline so that I stayed sitting in front of the two centre-backs protecting them. I see much of that as central to the success of Barcelona and Spain nowadays.”

At the time Graeme didn’t mention the modern Madrid, but he could have done.

In 1981 the club didn’t learn from Liverpool’s brand of football, didn’t understand that mixing the velvet glove with the iron fist was something which would still function as well in 2014 as it did when Bucksfizz were winning the Eurovision Song Contest.

In 2009 they did learn.

If you recall the Anfield ambush, Madrid were not only hammered 4-0, they couldn’t compete.

They couldn’t keep up mentally or physically: with each passing quarter of an hour the self-belief and stamina diminished to the point that the Reds, inspired and led by one of the great Stevie Gerrard performances, were shooting fish in a barrel.

If you are able to go back and luxuriate in the images, or if, as a Koppite, they are still seared on the brain, then just call up the bewildered looks on the faces of Raul, Heinze and Gago as they thought only about ‘what just happened?’, ‘how soon can this be over?’

• Betting: Will it be Real revenge for the Anfield Ambush?

Stevie wonder

I’ve spoken to Liverpool players from that night and their verdict is unanimous. They knew, in advance, that they’d be able to out-sprint, out-last, out-jump and out-muscle Madrid – the out-playing would follow as a natural consequence.

They already knew that Raul was no longer a real threat when the contest was hi-energy, that he epitomized the ‘faded greatness’ of the Madrid era.

The great difference in the ‘lessons’ which were nearly three decades apart is that Madrid assimilated and applied the latter one.
A strategy was adopted.

They wanted Jose Mourinho even then – Florentino Perez wanted to Liverpool-ise, or better still, to Chelsea-ise Madrid.

They wanted to modernize. To blend technique with intensity, power with pace, creativity with coruscating energy.

The coach that night was Juande Ramos who’d achieved just those things with Sevilla, who’d regularly put Madrid through the wringer using players like Luis Fabiano, Freddie Kanouté, Seydou Keita, Ivica Dragutinovic, Julio Baptista, and the late Antonio Puerta. Their 3-5 win at the Bernabéu in the Supercopa was the template. Power, height but oodles of technique.

Juande Ramos didn’t work out at Madrid but Sevilla, Chelsea and now Liverpool had shown the men in grey suits that they were gonna have to use some grey matter. To catch up.

Heinze and Cannavaro out. Raúl directly after.

Sequentially: Alonso, Arbeloa (both alumni of the Anfield ambush), Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema, Garay, Angel di Maria in.

Strength in numbers

You see the pattern? You see the influence? Height, power, grit, Premier League experience, intensity – all of them tick some or all of those boxes.

Then, one year later, Mourinho. Now Bale.

Height, power, stamina, aggression but, in due course, more weights in training, more gym work, faster paced, more direct football. The Spanish title, three straight Champions League semi finals and then, in Lisbon, La Decima.

There’s a line of cultural change which can be traced from Anfield in 2009 until now.

Painful and humiliating though the experience was.

A brand of thinking at the Bernabeu, particularly around their Valdebebas training centre, that the powerful mix of Spanish craft, technique and strategy when blended with the power, height, pace, commitment, stamina and directness of the Premier League was not only the way forward generally but a means of waging football ‘war’ on the prettier, possession based football at Barcelona.

‘Madrid have it all’

Without pre-judging the result, the master-pupil roles have been reversed from 2009 until now.

Liverpool are patently in the process of trying to reestablish some of the Spanish football credo which they had in their very best years – brilliant, quick passing above all.

But Brendan Rodgers unsurprisingly told Guillem Balaque for AS newspaper this week: “Right now Madrid is a team which can perform at a high level the like of which I’ve not seen in years. They have it all. Great players, speed, technique, fantastic team spirit, experience and a marvellous coach. They play well in tight spaces and if you leave them big spaces on the pitch there’s no team in the world better at exploiting them. My view is that when you mix the technique of the Spanish and or Dutch with the British spirit then it’s very very hard to beat.”

But, to business. To play the first of the two games at Anfield is an advantage. To play Madrid when Bale is out, Ramos is out, Benzema and Varane are both just back from illness and Casillas is searching for confidence and match sharpness – all of this is helpful.

So is the fact that the Clásico is on the horizon.

Form, talent and impetus still suggests that between Ronaldo, James Rodríguez, Luka Modric and Toni Kroos the European Champions can score and return home without losing, quite likely win.

Sterling: the jewel in Liverpool’s crown

However, Martin Skrtel recently organised Slovakia to shock and humiliate Spain, his and Balotelli’s aerial ability directly correlate with the weakest point in Madrid’s armoury.

And then there’s Raheem Sterling.

The jewel in Liverpool’s crown.

I will put a wager of a nice bottle of wine that within a season or two Real Madrid will, literally, not be able to resist his particular charms.

He has everything that the Spanish club adore… and more. And, for the moment, the best thing he can do is torment Marcelo and get that ball into the middle.

No matter how anglified, no matter how Liverpool-ised Madrid have become since 2009 they don’t like a good old fashioned English football aerial bombardment. Tin hats on, everyone.

• Betting: Slide into the latest Liverpool v Real Madrid markets >

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.