Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

People have been looking forward to this clash for weeks, simply because we’ll know on Sunday whether Atleti will have the quality to keep pace at the top as they try to wrestle back the La Liga title off of Barcelona. Their record against the Catalonians is not good however, just one win in 14 attempts and no goal for Antoine Griezmann in five appearances against Barca. They’ve only conceded three goals away from home all year however. But I don’t think they’ll have enough. Back Suarez to score at and a home win at

Valencia vs Sporting Gijon

I know I’ve tipped Gary Neville to get his first La Liga win the last couple of times, but I’m certain that this week it’s happening. Sporting are second to last, they’ve lost eight of their eleven away games. But after losing 5-1 to Real two weeks ago, they came out and destroyed Sociedad by the same scoreline. My tip is to back the in play. If Valencia score first, they’ll win at. If they don’t back the score draw. Gijon’s best hope for a goal is Sanabria at to open the scoring

Real Madrid vs Espanyol

Espanyol actually have a decent record in the Bernebau. Despite losing heavily on many an occasion, they’ve been able to grab a draw against the Galacticos twice over the last four seasons. But they haven’t won in almost a decade, and were beaten 6-0 at home by Real earlier in the season. Zidane’s Madrid have been scoring for fun, and the handicap of Real -3 is too good not to take on this occasion, especially when you take into account the extent of Espanyol’s injuries. They’re missing six first team players.

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Like the seasick passenger on a cruise liner who has accidentally swallowed too many laxatives, Elche are in trouble at both ends.

Their 27 goals conceded make them the second most defensively incontinent side in La Liga – and they’ve only scored 12 times in 13 matches.

At the Martínez Valero, where they are La Liga’s ninth best supported club with an average of over 22,000 fans turning up to back them, it’s been torture – in six home matches this season they’ve only led once.

But there’s a stand-out. Up front they have the physically imposing, terrifically quick Jonathas.

El gol de Jonathas logra que se repartan los puntos… #elchecf #cordobacf #franjiverdes pic.twitter.com/uuxoa6gsDt

— Claudia Ropero (@ClaudiaRopero) November 24, 2014

He’ll be 26 in March and perhaps at this age he’s not going to be absolutely top, top class. But the Brazilian is a handful and to score six in 12 in this team [three in his last two home games] is no small achievement.

Coach Fran Escribá doesn’t need the added problem of one of his other stand-out players, David Lombán, suffering family problems which have prevented him training this week and hint that he might not play against the champions. A full-on competitor at centre-half he’s also author of a couple of Elche’s other goals.

Tipped Griezmann to get us a goal last weekend but he saved it until the midweek Copa win over Hospitalet – merci pour rien mon brave!

That said, his form is good and his only Liga hat-trick so far was for Real Sociedad against Elche last season. A pair of 2-0 wins for Atleti against this mob while winning the title, a couple of penalties awarded to them in those games – a win, a two-goal margin and, in all likelihood, another successful set-piece for Cholo Simeone’s team this weekend (Atleti -1.0 at 17/10).

• Match betting >

Real Madrid v Celta Saturday 7pm

Perhaps this is where we get another hint about who’ll win the title. The Galicians have taken a draw and a win away from visits to Atlético and Barcelona already this season – but profile as much, much longer odds to escape without a doing here.

Okay, before I get bullish here’s the cautionary note. Of Celta’s last seven league visits to the daunting Bernabéu [admittedly dating back to 2001] they’ve only lost three. The other results include 1-2 and 2-3 wins plus a pair of 1-1 draws. Moreover, coached by Luis Enrique,

Celta beat los Blancos 2-0 up at the Balaidos last season in a result which confirmed that Madrid couldn’t win the title, thus robbing them of the first treble in their history. Put all of those factors together and no way Celta look like mugs here. But they are in the middle of a vertigo attack, poor dears.

Having won 1-0 at the Camp Nou on the first day of November they’ve not scored a league goal since, they’ve taken a single point, against lowly Granada, losing to Rayo and Eibar. It was Toto Berizzo’s front three which was separating Celta from the pack – at least while they were scoring. Nolito hasn’t got one since mid October, Joaquin Larrivey hasn’t scored since that Camp Nou goal and Fabián Orellana is the most culpable.

This assist from Javier Hernandez last night is blindingly good…https://t.co/xQjIF32LeL — Alex Richards (@AA_Richards) December 3, 2014

No net-bulging since mid September. Albeit using an experimental XI, that run of form hit its logical conclusion in the cup this week with a poor defeat away to second division leaders Las Palmas.

• The front-of-house picture for Madrid is that they have just made history with 16 straight wins, everyone’s teeth are white and shiny like a US chat-show host and if you ask them nicely they’ll probably lend you a fiver till next weekend.

Away from the surface-glare the play has shaded just a touch.

Toni Kroos (above, for Germany) was rested for the cup game and won’t play midweek against Ludogorets because his systems are on overload [aka knackered] – Luka Modric is gonna be missed.

But it’s very hard to see beyond a three goal win for Madrid (-3.0 at around 6/4), more booty for James and Ronaldo and perhaps a little something for Chicharito (5/1 first goalscorer) whose game time is limited but whose form is sparkling.

Madrid have appealed Isco’s second yellow at Málaga last weekend. If rescinded he starts in a James-Kroos-Isco midfield. If not it’ll read James-Illarramendi-Kroos

NB: Ref Undiano has sent Ramos off three times in his career.

• Match betting >

Rayo v Sevilla Sunday 12pm

That Sevilla don’t particularly like the Vallecas visit and might lose here is established – five defeats, two draws and just two wins since 1993.

However things have slightly fallen into their laps in terms of the build-up to what could be a stand-out game for attractive football.

Unai Emery’s side have Bob Beamon-ed their way out of a mini crisis with 10 goals in their last two wins.

Ahead of this testing trip to Madrid their last league game was over 24 hours earlier than Rayo’s [Sunday afternoon compared to Monday night] and at home to Granada rather than away in Almeria.

Then their Copa del Rey win over Sabadell was Wednesday, not

Thursday unlike Rayo who lost at home, 1-2, to Valencia.

It all meant that from Sunday evening onwards key figures like Carlos Bacca, Beto, Stéphene M’Bia, Dani Carriço, Nico Pareja, Éver Banega, Aleix Vidal and Vitolo could mix time-off with recuperative training and miss the 5-1 win over Sabadell.

How much faith do you put in that?

Los máximos goleadores de ambos clubes son Leo Baptistao con 6 goles y por parte del almeria Edgar con dos goles. pic.twitter.com/D9eRDuKZpb

— Rayo Vallecano (@BollRayo) December 1, 2014

Don’t forget that because of the Uefa Supercup and Europa League guys like Carriço, Bacca and Pareja have 1700, 1400 and 1300 minutes game-time respectively this season.

Throw in the travel time involved in Europe and that’s a significant difference to Rayo’s most used player, Tito, with 1142 Liga minutes, star strikers Baptistão (above) or Bueno with 944 and 966 respectively.

Sevilla have scored the same number of goals as Rayo have conceded, 24 and in the 26 Liga matches the sides have played this season there’ve only been four draws. In theory it should favour Sevilla. It’s 14 games since they drew an away match – all wins or defeats.

Emery likes counter-attack, his team is confident and in-form and unless they leave their cojones behind them, and wilt, there’s the chance of a rare there points here for them. Even if they have to win it late on, should Rayo wilt.

• Match betting >

Barcelona v Espanyol Sunday 4pm

Even if you pay intermittent attention to Spanish football you’ll know of Luis ‘Lucho’ Enrique. He crossed the divide from Madrid to Barça, played for Bobby Robson, won copious amounts of trophies and matured into a Camp Nou great. But Sergio González?

I’d wager you might struggle with the Espanyol coach. Until I remind you that with Super-Depor he won at Arsenal, scored in a win at Old Trafford, beat Bayern Munich home and away, beat Juventus, thrashed European Champions AC Milan 4-0 and scored in the 2002 Copa Del Rey final defeat of Real Madrid. At the Bernabéu. On the 100th anniversary of Madrid’s foundation.

Barcelona’s 1-0 win over Valencia was a fair result, according to coach Luis Enrique. pic.twitter.com/h2cGbmkrje

— Purely Football (@PurelyFootball) December 1, 2014

As a side note, he scored, too, on his Espanyol-Barcelona derby debut back in April 1998 when [as on many occasions] he was up against Luis Enrique.

Does any of that influence who’ll win on Sunday? No, but allow a man to set the scene.

Lucho and Sergio represent precisely what this Derby-lite lacks.

The city doesn’t shudder to a stop as in Madrid, Milan, Manchester, Liverpool.

At the Camp Nou there will be a mere trickle of away fans. Next to no noise – even should they win.

But, regularly, there’s intensity bordering on nastiness on the pitch, and the two coaches represent ‘this is my club’ spirit – the types for whom there’s a significant ‘edge’ to a game like this. If the fans felt the same way about it we’d have a spectacle on our hands.

Right now Barcelona are Jekyll and Hyde. Stormingly good in much of their attacking play at Ajax and Apoel, dozy in the first half against Sevilla then devastating thereafter. Then dopy and slower than sludge for 80 minutes last week against Valencia only to grimly keep plugging away until they hit an added time winner.

• It’s worth paying attention to the fact that not since Mauricio Pochettino took last-placed Espanyol to the Camp Nou during Pep Guardiola’s treble-season and won 1-2 in February 2009 have Los Periquitos even scored on a visit to Barça.

The plain fact is that Sergio doesn’t have a single player, with the possible exception of the excellent Sergio Garcia, of his class and sustained excellence.

It’s hard not to back Leo Messi, six goals and an assist in his last three games, and hard to explain why Luis Suárez’s form went backwards last weekend after he’d broken his duck in Cyprus.

Those who admire the Uruguayan will bet on him making Espanyol pay. Andrés Iniesta is back, looking in decent form, which isn’t necessarily a hint he’ll score but definitely a supply of better ammunition for Neymar, Messi and co. Barcelona by three (at about 7/4).

• Match betting >

• Atletico -1.0 (17/10)
• Barcelona -3.0 (7/4)
• Sevilla to win (6/5)
• Real Madrid -3.0 (6/4)

• La Liga betting coupon >

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Germany

Joachim Low has played a straight bat about his side’s hopes of avoiding a Greek tragedy but one suspects the 52-year-old will not lose too much sleep over the 2004 tournament winners.

Greece should be commended for a never-say-die attitude and willingness to dig deep in the trenches. What they lack in style, they make up for in substance and it is this stubbornness which led them to glory in Portugal, where they kept the most clean sheets (three).

This time around they will be missing captain and talisman Giorgios Karagounis, who serves a one-game ban after picking up his second yellow card of the tournament against Russia, and this has to blunt them as an attacking unit.

The game-plan will be to stifle the Germans in midfield and cut off the supply lines but this is knockout football now and therein lies the problem for the Greeks.

The Germans have taken the lead in all three matches at Euro 2012, plus each of their 10 qualifiers, going on to win all of those games. They have not fallen behind in a competitive game since the third-place play-off against Uruguay at the 2010 World Cup and have won their last 14 competitive games.

Low has so many options going forward he should not be concerned about the risk of attacks being cut off at source – nor falling behind against the Greeks, so often the stuff of nightmares against such a resilient bunch.

Mario Gomez has found the form which deserted him at the end of the season for Bayern Munich and has hit three already during Euro 2012, so it is a surprise to see him priced up at 3/1 (First and Last Goalscorer).

Germany have scored two goals or more in 14 of their last 16 games but it may be wise to err against any exotic scorelines at PGE Arena, Gdansk – an angle highlighted by the presence of Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, whose tough austerity measures she has demanded in return for financial aid for the debt-laden Greeks make it unlikely she will be sunning herself on any of the country’s destination hot spots this summer.

Greece are short enough at 4/11 to book a place in the last four, with the draw priced up 4/1 and Greece out as big as 8/1 to complete an upset (90 minutes).

Expect the Germans to come away with a job-done outcome, with focal point Gomez 1-0 (16/1) and 2-0 (14/1) attractive in the Popular Scorecast Selections market.

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