Euro 2012

In a week when Germany and the Netherlands both crashed in friendly fixtures it is always wise to err on the side of caution when treading the path of non-competitive matches, but it is safe to suggest this outing means more to Ukraine than Austria.

The Austrians will not feature in this summer’s showpiece tournament having failed to qualify off the back of a wretched qualifying campaign which yielded just three wins, although they were thrown in at the deep end in a group with Germany, Turkey and Belgium.

Ukraine have enjoyed the benefit of not having to qualify but a kind pre-tournament itinerary, which has included friendly wins so far against the likes of Estonia, twice, and Israel is questionable when put under scrutiny.

The two sides met last November and Marko Devic earned 10-man Ukraine a stoppage-time 2-1 win. Since then the Ukrainians have scored seven goals in two further friendlies, including a 4-0 romp against Estonia on Monday. Andriy Yarmolenko ended an impressive season for Dynamo Kiev with 12 goals in the Ukraine top-flight and can be backed at 5/1 to end the tournament Top Ukraine Goalscorer.

Veteran striker Andriy Shevchenko (10/1 – Top Ukraine Goalscorer) made a cameo appearance in the second half and captain Anatoliy Tymoshchuk played just nine days after suffering Champions League final heartache with Bayern Munich.

The influential pair will be key to Oleg Blokhin’s hopes of leading Ukraine out of a Group D including France, England and Sweden (Ukraine 5/4 to qualify).

Ukraine can be backed at 11/8 to collect maximum points in a crucial opening game against Sweden (15/8 to win, draw 11/5 – 90 minutes), but, priced up at 4/7 stage of elimination – Group, are not expected to reach the knockout stages.

Ukraine squad:

Goalkeepers: Oleksandr Goryainov (FC Metalist Kharkiv), Maxym Koval (FC Dynamo Kyiv), Andriy Pyatov (FC Shakhtar Donetsk).

Defenders: Bohdan Butko (FC Illychivets Mariupil), Olexandr Kucher (FC Shakhtar Donetsk), Taras Mikhalik (FC Dynamo Kyiv), Yaroslav Rakitskiy (FC Shakhtar Donetsk), Yevhen Selin (FC Vorskla Poltava), Yevhen Khacheridi (FC Dynamo Kyiv), Vyacheslav Shevchuk (FC Shakhtar Donetsk).

Midfielders: Olexandr Aliyev (FC Dynamo Kyiv), Denys Garmash (FC Dynamo Kyiv), Oleh Gusev (FC Dynamo Kyiv), Yevhen Konoplyanka (FC Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk), Serhiy Nazarenko (SC Tavriya Simferopol), Ruslan Rotan (FC Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk), Anatoliy Tymoshchuk (FC Bayern München), Andriy Yarmolenko (FC Dynamo Kyiv).

Forwards: Andriy Voronin (FC Dinamo Moskva), Marko Devic (FC Shakhtar Donetsk), Artem Milevskiy (FC Dynamo Kyiv), Yevhen Seleznyov (FC Shakhtar Donetsk), Andriy Shevchenko (FC Dynamo Kyiv).

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Holland

The 1998 European champions breezed through their qualifying campaign, winning nine and drawing one of their 10 fixtures to finish three points clear of Sweden at the summit.

However, it pays to note that their group contained the likes of San Marino and Moldova, making it difficult to assess the true condition of Bert van Marwijk’s side.

Their run to the 2010 World Cup final should be considered a triumph, even if their aggressive tactics were often criticised, as prior to that they had earned a reputation for freezing in the latter stages of major tournaments – as three semi-final defeats from their last five international competitions will testify.

The squad still contains the similar names we saw reach the final in South Africa, with the likes of Arjen Robben, Nigel de Jong and veteran Mark van Bommel all poised to pull on the famous orange shirt once more.

They have a solid, experienced and talented spine, with goalkeeper Maarten Stekelenburg well shielded by defenders Johnny Heitinga and Joris Mathijsen.

De Jong and van Bommel then provide further protection in midfield, allowing the likes of Robben, Wesley Snejider and Rafael van der Vaart time and space to feed the strikers.

And it is up front where Holland’s hopes rest. They smashed home 37 goals in their qualifying games with Klaas-Jan Huntelaar top-scoring with 12 (Huntelaar 20/1 – Euro 2012 top scorer), while Dirk Kuyt and Robin van Persie scored six each.

Their key man is undoubtedly van Persie. The 28-year-old enjoyed a memorable season in the Premier League with Arsenal, scoring 37 goals in all competitions and picking up the English PFA Player of the Year Award.

Van Persie is currently priced as the 10/1 second favourite to be top scorer at the tournament, with a van Persie/Holland double priced at a generous 20/1.

If he can transfer his form from the Emirates Stadium to eastern Europe, then the Oranje will take some stopping. However, you should also remember that the draw made in December was not particularly kind to van Persie and co, with Germany, Portugal and Denmark placed alongside them in Group B.

Their opening clash with Denmark on June 9 (Holland 8/13, draw 12/5, Denmark 4/1) should give them the chance to get early points on the board, with the Danes widely tipped to take the wooden spoon.

Given Germany’s impressive record at major tournaments it isn’t surprising that they and Holland are evens to qualify together from the group, even with the presence of Portugal providing a significant stumbling block.

If they can escape their group though then the potential quarter-final draw has been kind.

Group A is generally seen as the weakest of the four and van Marwijk will not be afraid of taking on Poland, Russia, Greece or the Czech Republic in the quarter-finals, which would then leave them just 90 minutes away from a second consecutive tournament final.

With pre-tournament odds of 11/4 it is clear that once again Holland go into a major tournament heavily fancied to do well. Their talent has never been in question but their temperament has, with the accusation often being that they are a team of individuals rather than a force greater than the sum of their parts.

With holders and 5/2 favourites Spain travelling without key defender Carles Puyol and possibly striker David Villa, the door is ajar for another side to play their way into contention.

If the Dutch can safely negotiate an admittedly difficult group then there is no reason why they cannot reach the latter stages (Holland 11/4 to reach the final), with van Marwijk’s greatest challenge ensuring they remain a collective unit.

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That slip-up could come this weekend as Sam Allardyce and his men travel to London Road to take on Peterborough, who have their own agenda as they look to avoid relegation following their promotion in the summer (Peterborough 13/5, draw 5/2, West Ham evens).

Darren Ferguson’s side have been solid rather than spectacular this season but are currently in a bit of a slump having not won since beating Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day. However, they always seem to raise their game against the top teams and will be looking to break their streak against the Hammers.

Key to their chances will be playmaker George Boyd, who has long been hailed as one of the best players outside the Premier League. The Scot has the ability to unlock any defence and West Ham will have to be wary of his threat whenever the Posh have got the ball.

The Hammers themselves have disappointed recently but have somehow maintained their position atop the table and now look almost certain to earn promotion back to the Premier League.

Sam Allardyce’s side once again proved their credentials by beating local rivals Millwall last Saturday, despite going down to ten men early on after captain Kevin Nolan’s sending off.

Nolan’s absence will pile more pressure on stand-in captain Mark Noble, who was the architect of last Saturday’s victory. He’ll once gain look to control the game and is sure to be at everything positive for his side.

Noble’s quality could prove the difference at London Road and the Hammers will be confident of success but its sure to be a close game (West Ham 7/1 to win 2-1).

Another game that jumps out from the Championship on Saturday is the clash at the Walkers Stadium which sees Leicester take on Cardiff (Leicester 5/4, draw 9/4, Cardiff 7/4).

The big-spending Foxes have disappointed this season after bringing in a number of high-profile players, while Cardiff have once again confounded the critics and are challenging for promotion to the top flight.

The East Midlands club have often struggled at the back but seem to have settled down in recent times with Sean St Ledger stepping into partner Matt Mills. The duo will be vital on Saturday and will be looking to establish themselves as the first choice defensive pair ahead of Sol Bamba’s return from the African Cup of Nations.

Cardiff’s game is based on moving the ball quickly on the ground and central to this is midfielder Peter Whittingham, who has once again proved himself to be his side’s key player. The former Aston Villa man will be looking forward to testing himself against some of the best players in Championship.

However, home advantage should prove enough and a win could help Nigel Pearson’s side make a late run for the promotion places (Leicester 8/1 to win 2-1).

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Coventry City are rock-bottom of the Championship, seven points adrift of safety, and the Sky Blues need to start picking up points sooner rather than later if they are to avoid the drop.

However, Andy Thorn’s side could well struggle this weekend as they entertain Middlesbrough, who have a formidable record away from the Riverside Stadium.

Tony Mowbray’s Boro slumped to a 2-0 loss at home to a resurgent Burnley last time out and the north east outfit will be desperate to get back to winning ways to put the pressure on Southampton and Cardiff.

Boro are 11/10 to secure an eighth victory on the road in the Championship this season, and considering Coventry’s recent record Mowbray’s men should be able to take all three points.

The Sky Blues have managed just one win in their last 14 fixtures and to compound their woes key striker Lukas Jutkiewicz has moved on, to Boro.

Jutkiewicz is 3/2 to score any time and 11/2 to open the scoring, both of which are certainly worth some consideration.

Doncaster Rovers have become a hard side to beat at the Keepmoat but their away form is abysmal, with two wins and eleven losses from their 13 matches to date.

Dean Saunders’ side travel to Bristol City and will struggle to get anything out of the Robins at Ashton Gate. Bristol City, who have seven points from the last 12 available on home soil, are priced at 5/6 to secure the victory over the struggling Yorkshire side.

Brighton have lost three of their last four away games and could be set for another defeat when they travel to Peterborough on Saturday afternoon.

The Posh have scored 27 goals at London Road this season, a record only bettered by league-leaders Southampton, while the Seagulls have hit the back of the net just eight times on their travels this season.

Posh are priced at evens to seal the win and record their seventh home win of the campaign to date.

Nottingham Forest face a daunting trip to West Ham as they continue their battle against the drop and Forest’s woes look set to continue at Upton Park.

The City Ground side have managed to pick up more wins on their travels than they have on home soil this season but with West Ham seeking to secure promotion they face a tricky tie in east London.

Forest boss Steve Cotterill has no new injury or suspension concerns, but he remains without a number of key players, including influential midfielder Chris Cohen.

West Ham are 4/7 to seal the win and move to the top of the table, as Southampton don’t play until Monday.

The Hammers are the 6/5 favourites to win the Championship title, Southampton can be backed at 9/4 and Sam Allardyce’s side are 1/3 to secure promotion, either through a top-two finish or the play-offs.

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Manchester City v Bayern Munich

Many expected big-spending City (9/4 To Qualify) to take the Champions League by storm this season, but it’s not happened so far and they are on the brink of a group-stage exit. Roberto Mancini’s men need to win on Wednesday and hope that Napoli suffer defeat at Villarreal.

The Premier League leaders have won just two of their five group games to date and suffered a comprehensive defeat in Munich back in September. Their form in Europe has been unrecognisable to their unbeaten run domestically and the pressure and quality of opponents will cause them more problems this week (Match Betting – City 8/13, draw 3/1, Bayern 9/2).

Bayern look like the real deal this season, a side that could make it to at least the last-four of the competition. The German giants are the fourth top scores in the Champions League this term, with 11 goals in five matches, and are unbeaten in Group A.

The Bundesliga outfit, who have already qualified for the last 16, have been critical of the way City appear to be buying their way to success and the full strength squad selected for the Eastlands clash, suggests they won’t to kill off City’s chances.

The Blues hopes rest largely on Sergio Aguero (6/5 To Score At Anytime), whose pace can cause a Bayern defence lacking in pace, a few problems. But pace on the break from the visitors will have City wary and could ultimately prove the downfall of Mancini’s men.

Basle v Manchester United

Sir Alex Ferguson’s men need just a point in Switzerland to make the knockout stages, but that sounds easier than it is likely to be for United (1/6 To Qualify). The Premier League champions have won just two of their five European ties this term – with both victories coming against Group C whipping boys Otelul Galati.

United have looked out of sorts in recent weeks and have struggled for goals, scoring just one goal in each of their last seven league games. They did score two against Benfica in their last group encounter, but also conceded two to take qualification down to the last game (Match Betting – Basle 5/1, draw 14/5, United 8/13).

With Javier Hernandez, Dimitar Berbatov and Michael Owen all sidelined, and Danny Welbeck just returning from injury, a lot of pressure sits on the shoulders of Wayne Rooney (7/2 First Goalscorer). United though have shored up at the back since the return of Ferdinand and Vidic and their defensive strength is likely to see them through this stern test.

Basle, who claimed a 3-3 draw at Old Trafford, have lost three of their last six Champions League home games and the experience of the visitors may prove too much for the home side, who need three points to qualify.

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Sparks always fly when the old rivals meet and there have been three sendings off in the last three meetings, so expect more fireworks at Anfield this Saturday.

Liverpool v Man Utd (12:45)

The home side have won the last three meetings at Anfield, including a 3-1 success last year thanks a hat-trick from Dirk Kuyt. Prior to that, United had won 1-0 in the two previous seasons and, as ever, it looks a difficult one to call.

The midfield could be the key to success, in what is likely to be a physical encounter. United’s new set-up in the middle of the park has impressed so far this term, with Anderson taking a staring role.

Liverpool, on the other hand, have frequently shuffled their pack in the midfield, some times with success and at other times, like at Tottenham, they have been over-run.

But the likely return of Steven Gerrard could prove a crucial factor in favour of Kenny Dalglish’s men.

Suggested Bet: Draw H/T / Liverpool F/T @ 5/1

Man City v Aston Villa (3pm)

Two unbeaten teams meet at Eastlands and it seems likely that something will give, as Roberto Mancini’s men look to close the gap on city rivals United.

Carlos Tevez may have returned after his club suspension this week, but his presence is unlikely to have any detrimental effect on City who will be missing Sergio Aguero.

The home side have won all three of their home matches this term and Villa have lost on their last five trips to City – enough said!

Suggested Bet: City to win @ 4/11

Norwich v Swansea (3pm)

Two newly-promoted teams go head-to-head at Carrow Road and both have shown that they are capable of staying up this season.

A win here for either team could prove crucial, even at this early stage, for their hopes.

The Canaries have won one, drawn one, lost one on home soil this term, while Swansea have lost all three of their away games.

Those fixtures were though at Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City and they are good enough to get something from this game.

Norwich won this game 2-0 last season, but Brendan Rodgers’ squad is a stronger unit now.

Suggested Bet: Draw @ 9/4

QPR v Blackburn (3pm)

Neil Warnock’s side have already proven to be the most unpredictable team in the top flight so far, while Blackburn have, at times, looked the weakest.

Sandwiched inbetween a 4-0 home defeat to Bolton and 6-0 thrashing at Fulham, the R’s have picked up eight points and looked an improving side.

Meanwhile, Rovers have picked up just one point from three away games and are relying heavily on Yakubu to deliver the goals to keep them up.

Suggested Bet: DJ Campbell to score at anytime @ 13/8

Stoke v Fulham (3pm)

The Cottagers collected a shock win at the Britannia Stadium last season and go into this clash in good form.

A 6-0 win over QPR will have boosted confidence in the Fulham camp and the return to form and fitness of Andy Johnson and Bobby Zamora is massive.

Stoke are unbeaten at home and that includes the visits of Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United.

Tony Pulis’ men will have welcomed the international break, with their hectic schedule, and may prove too strong for the visitors.

Suggested Bet: Stoke to win @ 6/5

Wigan v Bolton (3pm)

This is normally a tight local derby and following disappointing starts to the season from both clubs, expect more of the same on Saturday.

Wanderers have not won at the DW Stadium since 2007 and the last four league meetings have produced just two goals.

The first goal, if there is one, is likely to prove crucial in this clash.

Suggested Bet: 1-1 Draw @ 11/2

Chelsea v Everton (5:30pm)

Everton have been stewing over the Merseyside derby defeat for a fortnight and so expect them to respond with a big performance at Stamford Bridge.

David Moyes’ men are unbeaten in their last six matches with Chelsea and will feel they can take something from this game – especially with Jack Rodwell available.

Chelsea will face their toughest home test of the season to date and although they appear to have plenty of goals in them, they will miss the suspended Fernando Torres.

Suggested Bet: Draw @ 7/2

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Craig Levein’s side looked as if they were on course for a crucial victory against the Czechs but a questionable penalty awarded by referee Kevin Blom following Jan Resek’s tumble in the box gave Michal Kadlec a chance to level the scores, handing Michal Bilek’s side a point.

To add further insult to injury, the Scots themselves were denied a spot-kick in the closing minutes leaving them bitterly frustrated. The Tartan Army will be hoping Darren Fletcher and his men can channel this anger in a positive manner and get the three points required against an improving Lithuanian side.

Fletcher will undoubtedly be one of the Scot’s key players, driving the team forwards and doing all he can to ensure the victory. The Manchester United man was much derided during the early stages of his career but is now seen as one of the nation’s premier midfielders and with both Charlie Adam and Scott Brown missing through injury and suspension respectively, Fletcher will be looking for a big performance.

Scotland will also be without star striker Kenny Miller who is banned following his yellow card at the weekend meaning Blackburn’s David Goodwillie (4/1 first goalscorer) is likely to be the man charged with leading the line for Levein’s side. The former Dundee United forward has only played once for his country but has the talent to fire them to victory on Tuesday night.

After a decent start to their qualifying campaign, which included an away victory against the Czechs, Lithuania’s (11/2 for the win) form has hit the skids in recent times and their last two fixtures have seen them pick up just a point from two games against minnows Lichtenstein.

Their most notable player is surely Hearts winger Arvydas Novikovas who has been one of the SPL’s brightest stars for the last few seasons. The left-footer has both pace and ability and could cause the Scottish rearguard some major problems.

Another name to lookout for is the skipper Tomas Danilevicuis (7/1 first goalscorer) who despite his age, still has an eye for goal and will be looking to make an impact in what could be one of his final matches for his country.

Following their encouraging performance on Saturday, the Scots will be expecting a comfortable win against the eastern Europeans and will be doing all they can to close the gap on the Czechs going into the final two games of qualifying.

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Scotland

Last year in Prague, the manager opted for a surprising 4-6-0 formation – which backfired when they were defeated 1-0 thanks to a header from Roman Hubnik – but there will be no repeat this time around as Scotland strive to get closer to that second spot in the group.

The Tartan Army need maximum points to keep themselves in with a realistic shot of winning a play-off place as runners-up to runaway Group I leaders and world champions Spain, so the return of skipper Darren Fletcher comes at just the right time.

The Manchester United man is going into the game woefully short of fitness – he has only played twice since being hit by a mystery infection back in March – but Scotland are not blessed with many world class midfielders so his guile and determination will be a massive boost.

Levein has also included Charlie Adam (10/1 First Goalscorer) in for his first competitive start and the Liverpool man should add the class and skill to Fletcher’s running to ensure Scotland are really competitive in the middle of the park.

Elsewhere, Alan Hutton is in at right back and Kenny Miller (5/1 First or Last Goalscorer) will start up front alone in what looks a strong Scotland squad on paper. The vast majority of the starting line-up plays in the Premier League, with three from the SPL and only one from the Championship – and that is something Scottish fans have not always been able to boast in recent years.

The Czech Republic (9/5 to win, draw 23/10 90 Minutes) come into this game smarting after a 3-0 friendly defeat to Norway last time out and they are without Chelsea goalkeeper Petr Cech, meaning one of the untested duo of Jan Lastuvka or Jaroslav Drobny will be between the sticks.

There remains some real talent among the Czech ranks with the likes of Arsenal star Tomas Rosicky and former Liverpool man Milan Baros (6/1 First Goalscorer) the real familiar faces to British football fans. Elsewhere though they are full of European pedigree and there is a core of the unit from Czech champions Viktoria Plzen – who recently made it into this season’s Champions League.

Scotland recorded a 1-0 win over the Czech Republic in Levein’s first game in charge back in March 2010, thanks to a goal from Scott Brown who will also start at Hampden on Saturday, and they need to go out confident in search of another victory (5/1 Scotland 1-0 Correct Score).

Nothing but a win for Scotland on Saturday, and also against Lithuania on Tuesday night, will be enough if they want to make the Euro 2012 play-offs. But Levein has a talented squad at his disposal and they should have enough to get wins in both games, especially as the Czechs are not the force they were in the days of Poborsky, Koller and Nedved.

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Barcelona

Hercules lack the strength and power of their legendary namesake and have gone five games without a victory in La Liga, including four losses.  After just one season in the Spanish top flight it is looking increasingly likely that the Alicante outfit are heading back down and coach Esteban Vigo has a real task on his hands if he is to lead his team to safety.

Osasuna visit the Estadio Jose Rico Perez on Sunday and they look set to pile more misery on a beleaguered Hercules side.  The Pamplona outfit are still in the relegation mix themselves but have improved of late – taking seven points from their last three league fixtures and winning the last two. Osasuna are priced at 21/10 to take the points and this looks a decent bet, all things considered.

Levante have shot up the Spanish table with just one loss – at the hands of Real Madrid – in their last nine and they travel to strugglers Deportivo La Coruna on Sunday.  Despite Depor’s precarious position, they should be too good to go down and their problem this season has been too many draws, especially at home.  Levante will fancy their chances but could well be left frustrated and the draw, priced at 9/4, could well be the best bet from this particular fixture.

Meanwhile in Italy, Roma’s decision to axe Claudio Ranieri appears to have been a wise choice and they’ve now gone four games unbeaten since parting company with the likeable former Chelsea boss.

They do face a stern test this weekend though, with a trip to an improving Fiorentina side that have won their last two and are unbeaten in four.  Granted, La Viola have hardly set Serie A alight this season, but they still have some talented individuals and could well cause Roma a few problems, but following a Rome derby victory they should be full of confidence.

It should be a tight game between these two Italian giants, who have both endured stuttering campaigns, but Fiorentina could just edge it and at 7/5 they are a very good price to keep their (extremely) slim European hopes alive with victory.

Udinese have been on fire of late and they’re in with a chance of bagging a spot in next season’s Champions League.  Catania arrive at the Stadio Friuli on Sunday and they will struggle to get anything out of a Udinese side who have won five of their last six.  At 2/5, Udinese are heavy favourites but this particular clash is, on paper anyway, the very definition of a ‘home banker.’

Napoli are Udinese’s main competition for a spot amongst Europe’s elite next season and they host Cagliari, who seem set for a mid-table finish.  Napoli, at 4/7, should be too strong for Cagliari and as they continue their push for a top-three finish.  If you’ve got the confidence that these two in-form sides have the ability to grab victories, a Udinese/Napoli double pays out at 2.20 (6/5).

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With Everton currently in 11th, but with a game in hand on most teams, it looks like David Moyes’s side – on 33 points – have done just about enough to stay up but everyone from 12th (Aston Villa) down could yet get dragged in.

Villa’s (1/150 to stay up) form since Gerard Houllier took over has been frustratingly inconsistent but, with the likes of Stewart Downing, Gabby Agbonlahor, Ashley Young and Darren Bent in their squad, the midlanders surely have far too much quality to go down. A win at Bolton on Saturday will probably put an end to any lingering doubts over their Premier League future.

Equally, Fulham (1/40) look to have too much to be caught in a relegation scrap come early May and the deserved 1-1 draw at Man City on Sunday shows Mark Hughes’s side will pick up enough points between now and the end of the season to maintain their top-flight status for another year at least.

The Cottagers host Blackburn (1/9) on Saturday and, if Rovers slip up away from home again, then they will begin to look worryingly over their shoulders. They still have tough games to come against title-chasing duo Manchester United and Arsenal and third-placed Man City are yet to visit Ewood Park. Wins against fellow-strugglers Blackpool and Birmingham in the next month or so will be absolutely vital or a nervous finish to the season awaits.

Out of all the sides currently in the bottom six, Blackpool (8/15) would be most neutrals’ choice to stay up, such has been the way the Seasiders have entertained in their debut campaign in the Premier League. However, wins against the likes of Liverpool and Spurs mean nothing if your defence is constantly leaking goals and, sadly for Ian Holloway, that has been the case for the past month. We reckon Blackpool will just about stay up thanks largely to their form in the first half of the season but it would be no surprise if they have to wait until the last day to make sure of safety.

So that leaves us with just two from the final five at the bottom to pick from to avoid the drop – and this is where it becomes tricky.

West Ham’s (5/6) win over Liverpool on Sunday was a huge boost for Avram Grant’s side but they must reproduce that form over the next month if they are to get out of the mire in a season in which one encouraging performance has then often been followed by a dreadful one. However, there is certainly goals in Freddie Picquionne, Demba Ba and Victor Obinna while Scott Parker and the fit-again Thomas Hitzlsperger should win enough midfield battles in the coming weeks to secure some more vital wins.

Birmingham (4/7) have a couple of games in hand on their rivals due to their Carling Cup run but how they now react to Sunday’s memorable triumph will be key to whether the Blues stay up. Certainly if they approach the games they have left in the same manner they did at Wembley then surely survival is guaranteed.

The worry for Alex McLeish is that plenty of teams in the past have switched off when winning the League Cup thinking their season has been a success already but the wily Scot will not let that happen and we envisage a final-day draw at Spurs will keep them up.

So by our reckoning, that leaves West Brom (5/6), Wolves (4/7) and Wigan (12/5) as the teams who, come May, could be forced to face up to the prospect of second-tier football once again.

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