Watch: Graham Hunter is singing like a bird with this 4/1 La Liga shot

It’s been an interesting week to say the least in Spain. Barcelona are beginning to get that familiar stranglehold on the division, while only six points seperate the bottom five teams. This week it’s the turn of Celta Vigo to try and stop the unstoppable, but they have done so before.

Barcelona vs Celta Vigo

Lionel Messi

Barcelona have finally got their Player of the Month awards, and they’ve now gone 29 games at the Camp Nou unbeaten – that’s another record broken by Luis Enrique and I believe they’ll make it thirty. Celta love frustrating his side though, beating them 4-1 and winning at the Camp in recent seasons. Barca have been starting slowly this season, so go for a HT/FT of Draw/Barcelona at

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Valencia vs Espanyol

GaryNeville

IT WILL HAPPEN THIS WEEK. I am certain of it. Valencia will win this game. They’ve got Alcacer and Caicedo coming back into form, they’re up against an Espanyol side in absolute freefall, and at home at the Mestalla, they should come out on top. Then again, I’ve said that for a couple of weeks and they’ve underperformed considerably. If it doesn’t happen now, it might not ever. Back a Valencia win with Alcacer anytime.

 

Real Madrid vs Atletic Bilbao

Ronaldo celebrates

There is one key battle in this game and that is between Raphael Varane and Aritz Aduriz. The 35 year old is proving everyone wrong by continuing his scoring streak and he is the reason that Bilbao are where they are this season. If Varane can get on top and bully him early, it’ll be key to a Madrid win. Bilbao are depleted, and away from home I just don’t think they’ll have enough. Back the Blancos with both teams to score

 

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Graham Hunter: No matter how ‘Liverpool-ised’ Madrid have become since 2009 they don’t like a good old fashioned English football aerial bombardment

The last time Madrid left Anfield they’d been run over so badly that every last man jack had Looney-tunes tyre-tracks up the front of their body and all over their faces.

As opposed to the previous time these two behemoths of European football had met, in a European final which was one of the dullest, achingly-slow elite matches you could wish to suffer, that 2009 Champions League tie was jam-packed full of daring, energy, power and unfettered attacking.

The 1984 European Cup final was one of the ultimate lessons in the means justifying the end.

Vicente del Bosque as a Real Madrid player

Mixing the velvet glove with the iron fist

When I was writing my book about the ‘Inside Story of La Roja’s Historic Treble’ I phoned Graeme Souness to talk about the role and skills of Madrid’s talented, creative central midfielder that day in Paris: one Vicente del Bosque.

He told me: “I looked back at that final a couple of months ago because Jamie Redknapp rang me to tell me it was on television. I realised, watching it after such a long time, that for players like del Bosque in Madrid’s midfield Liverpool must have been a nightmare to play against because we were already putting into practice many of the things which are in vogue now: pressing all over the pitch, full-backs pushed high up their touchline so that I stayed sitting in front of the two centre-backs protecting them. I see much of that as central to the success of Barcelona and Spain nowadays.”

At the time Graeme didn’t mention the modern Madrid, but he could have done.

In 1981 the club didn’t learn from Liverpool’s brand of football, didn’t understand that mixing the velvet glove with the iron fist was something which would still function as well in 2014 as it did when Bucksfizz were winning the Eurovision Song Contest.

In 2009 they did learn.

If you recall the Anfield ambush, Madrid were not only hammered 4-0, they couldn’t compete.

They couldn’t keep up mentally or physically: with each passing quarter of an hour the self-belief and stamina diminished to the point that the Reds, inspired and led by one of the great Stevie Gerrard performances, were shooting fish in a barrel.

If you are able to go back and luxuriate in the images, or if, as a Koppite, they are still seared on the brain, then just call up the bewildered looks on the faces of Raul, Heinze and Gago as they thought only about ‘what just happened?’, ‘how soon can this be over?’

Steven Gerrard v Real Madrid 2009

  • Betting: Will it be Real revenge for the Anfield Ambush?

Stevie wonder

I’ve spoken to Liverpool players from that night and their verdict is unanimous. They knew, in advance, that they’d be able to out-sprint, out-last, out-jump and out-muscle Madrid – the out-playing would follow as a natural consequence.

They already knew that Raul was no longer a real threat when the contest was hi-energy, that he epitomized the ‘faded greatness’ of the Madrid era.

The great difference in the ‘lessons’ which were nearly three decades apart is that Madrid assimilated and applied the latter one.
A strategy was adopted.

They wanted Jose Mourinho even then – Florentino Perez wanted to Liverpool-ise, or better still, to Chelsea-ise Madrid.

They wanted to modernize. To blend technique with intensity, power with pace, creativity with coruscating energy.

The coach that night was Juande Ramos who’d achieved just those things with Sevilla, who’d regularly put Madrid through the wringer using players like Luis Fabiano, Freddie Kanouté, Seydou Keita, Ivica Dragutinovic, Julio Baptista, and the late Antonio Puerta. Their 3-5 win at the Bernabéu in the Supercopa was the template. Power, height but oodles of technique.

Juande Ramos didn’t work out at Madrid but Sevilla, Chelsea and now Liverpool had shown the men in grey suits that they were gonna have to use some grey matter. To catch up.

Heinze and Cannavaro out. Raúl directly after.

Sequentially: Alonso, Arbeloa (both alumni of the Anfield ambush), Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema, Garay, Angel di Maria in.

Ronaldo celebrates

Strength in numbers

You see the pattern? You see the influence? Height, power, grit, Premier League experience, intensity – all of them tick some or all of those boxes.

Then, one year later, Mourinho. Now Bale.

Height, power, stamina, aggression but, in due course, more weights in training, more gym work, faster paced, more direct football. The Spanish title, three straight Champions League semi finals and then, in Lisbon, La Decima.

There’s a line of cultural change which can be traced from Anfield in 2009 until now.

Painful and humiliating though the experience was.

A brand of thinking at the Bernabeu, particularly around their Valdebebas training centre, that the powerful mix of Spanish craft, technique and strategy when blended with the power, height, pace, commitment, stamina and directness of the Premier League was not only the way forward generally but a means of waging football ‘war’ on the prettier, possession based football at Barcelona.

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‘Madrid have it all’

Without pre-judging the result, the master-pupil roles have been reversed from 2009 until now.

Liverpool are patently in the process of trying to reestablish some of the Spanish football credo which they had in their very best years – brilliant, quick passing above all.

But Brendan Rodgers unsurprisingly told Guillem Balaque for AS newspaper this week: “Right now Madrid is a team which can perform at a high level the like of which I’ve not seen in years. They have it all. Great players, speed, technique, fantastic team spirit, experience and a marvellous coach. They play well in tight spaces and if you leave them big spaces on the pitch there’s no team in the world better at exploiting them. My view is that when you mix the technique of the Spanish and or Dutch with the British spirit then it’s very very hard to beat.”

But, to business. To play the first of the two games at Anfield is an advantage. To play Madrid when Bale is out, Ramos is out, Benzema and Varane are both just back from illness and Casillas is searching for confidence and match sharpness – all of this is helpful.

So is the fact that the Clásico is on the horizon.

Form, talent and impetus still suggests that between Ronaldo, James Rodríguez, Luka Modric and Toni Kroos the European Champions can score and return home without losing, quite likely win.

Raheem-Sterling

Sterling: the jewel in Liverpool’s crown

However, Martin Skrtel recently organised Slovakia to shock and humiliate Spain, his and Balotelli’s aerial ability directly correlate with the weakest point in Madrid’s armoury.

And then there’s Raheem Sterling.

The jewel in Liverpool’s crown.

I will put a wager of a nice bottle of wine that within a season or two Real Madrid will, literally, not be able to resist his particular charms.

He has everything that the Spanish club adore… and more. And, for the moment, the best thing he can do is torment Marcelo and get that ball into the middle.

No matter how anglified, no matter how Liverpool-ised Madrid have become since 2009 they don’t like a good old fashioned English football aerial bombardment. Tin hats on, everyone.

  • Betting: Slide into the latest Liverpool v Real Madrid markets >

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Graham Hunter on how Atletico Madrid are like Chelsea of old, but why Jose Mourinho can take advantage of small margins

Atlético Madrid vs Chelsea, Champions League semi-final (Tuesday, April 22, 19.45)

The neatest way to summarize what Jose Mourinho and Co face in Madrid tonight is that Chelsea are about to endure the most unsettling prospect of facing ‘themselves’.

Atletico are Chelsea of April 2005. Thibaut Courtois is Petr Cech, Diego Costa is Didier Drogba and above all Diego Simeone is Mourinho at his very best.

Little wonder under-pressure Jose wants to repatriate Courtois next season and is well on his way to signing Diego Costa.

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

  • Betting: Can the ‘new Chelsea’ beat the ‘old Chelsea?

Similarities with Chelsea 2005

Back in 2005 the Blues were horribly difficult to defeat and reached this semi-final stage by defeating both Porto and FC Barcelona – just as Atleti have done this season. But the greater similarities are in attitude, system, work ethic, all-for-one-and-one-for-all spirit.

Simeone is a street-tough man who isn’t afraid to admit he relies on his understanding of the Zodiac and horoscopes as part of his man-management techniques

‘Sanitarians need a lot of affection, but if you’re born under Scorpio you respond better to a bit of tough love. My star sign is Taurus – we can be a bit difficult to deal with. We’ll give you our heart and soul but only if you treat us well. If you try to force us to do something against our will, watch out.’

Tease him if you dare

Just like Mourinho used to have the ultimate capacity to achieve, Simeone has brought all his players, reserves too, to the boil at the same time – and kept them simmering all season. It’s one hell of a trick.

Champions League semi finals, Chelsea v Atletico via Graphic News

Simeone’s promise to his president

You could compare him to both Pep Guardiola and Mourinho for his absolute intensity – every minute of every working day. And in his spare time. He’ll often go to the cinema, catch the first 15 minutes but then become utterly overtaken by some new thought on training, or a rival, or the last match and need to walk out so that he can make notes.

Friends and family have tired of asking him whether he enjoyed a television programme, a movie or a concert. Usually he’ll have taken in about five per cent of what they have – because his restless football mind won’t let him alone.

Three trophies ago he took over with Atletico sliding down the table and able to peer over their shoulder at the relegation zone. He told his new president:

‘I’m going to make it unpleasant to play us, teams are going to suffer’.

He did. And they have

To this day his motto is: ‘If your car isn’t quite top notch then you have to find a way to puncture the other guy’s tyres so that you can keep up with him.’

John Terry and Frank Lampard 14/5/2006 00179078

What Terry and Lampard think…

When I spoke to John Terry and Frank Lampard (above in 2006) at Cobham last week and asked them about this tie each man pointed out that the general impression of Chelsea having had an extremely favourable draw in avoiding Real Madrid and Bayern didn’t tally with their views of the Spanish league leaders.

Each of them watches Spanish football and while each is respectful of the team it’s also Diego Simeone’s electric buzz of energy, animation and activity on the touchline which has impressed them.

My words, not theirs, but I think they see a version of Mourinho – just younger and as hungry as the Portuguese was back then.

For those who are trying to size up this match it’s important to point out that often Atletico’s margins are the smallest. Lots of 1-0 and 2-1 wins. An indication of rigour, but also an indication that if Chelsea can ‘do a job’ on them then taking a draw or a one-goal win back to London isn’t utterly impossible.

Diego Costa

  • Betting: Fancy Hunter’s tip of a tight Chelsea result?

More to Atleti than Costa

However, there’s a great deal to say that’s pro-Atletico. In all 23 Liga and Champions League games at the Calderon this season they’ve conceded just 10 times.

Notwithstanding the eye-catching nature of Courtois’ and Costa’s work this is a team – genuinely a terrific blend of youth, experience, pace, positional play, mental toughness. Will to win.

  • For example, although the headline figure is that Costa (above), potentially Spain’s starting World Cup No9, has 35 goals this season it’s important to note than in Atletico’s last 12 games (since their last defeat) there have been nine different scorers – Costa, Villa, Koke, Raúl Garcia, Gabi, Diego, Godín, Arda Turan and Miranda.
  • In those same games there have been nine individual goal-assist producers – Villa, Filipe Luis, Juanfran, Gabi, Raúl Garcia, Diego Arda, Adrian and Miranda.

Try picking a first goalscorer out of that lot. Atletico have Spain’s best set-play record offensively – they practice remorselessly and very often get it right.

That, allied to the fact that Atleti are noticeably good in the air in both attacking and defensive situations would suggest that conceding free kicks in the last third must be ‘verboten’ for Chelsea.

A little note for those who like in-play, should Atleti get a penalty and Costa is on the field he is likely to continue taking them – despite the fact that he’s missed four of eight this season.

Little details like that could well decide the whole tie and progress to Lisbon.

It’s old Chelsea against new Chelsea. May the better Chelsea win.

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Villa will be hungry like Wolves

There are six matches in the Premier League on Saturday with Wolves travelling to local rivals Aston Villa aiming to maintain their 100 per cent start the pick of the bunch as we assess that clash and the other top-flight encounters which may take your fancy.

Aston Villa v Wolves (12.05pm)

Alex McLeish’s men are unbeaten with four points from their opening two games, but they have been overshadowed by their Midlands rivals as Mick McCarthy’s side boast a 100 per cent record going into the Villa Park showdown.
Villa strike duo Gabby Agbonlahor and Emile Heskey have been declared fit after suffering minor injuries against Blackburn, while youngsters Chris Herd and Eric Lichaj are vying to replace QPR-bound Luke Young at right-back as the hosts aim to stretch their decent run to one defeat in 11 league games.
Ironically, the last side to win at Villa Park was Wolves in March as they ended a 31-year wait for that feat.
If they repeat that success (Wolves 3/1 Away 90 Minutes) on Saturday lunch-time it will be the first time they have ever won three successive Premier League matches.
McCarthy is set to name an unchanged side from the one that defeated Fulham at Molineux last Sunday.
However, it is Villa who are looking in good shape to avenge last season’s defeat and will bring Wolves’ good start to a halt.

Prediction: Villa Home 90 Minutes @ evens
Value Bet: Gabby Agbonlahor 1st goal Match Goalscorer @ 11/2

Wigan v QPR (12.30pm)

An interesting clash at the DW Stadium as Wigan are unbeaten from their opening two matches having drawn with Premier League new boys Norwich and Swansea.
They will be hoping to secure a first win against the third promoted outfit this weekend when Neil Warnock’s Londoners arrive.
Roberto Martinez’s men will be without Antolin Alcaraz, Steven Gohouri and possibly Victor Moses as they look to stretch their unbeaten run on home soil which dates back to February.
However, the R’s will be boosted by their 1-0 win at Everton last weekend not to mention the arrival of Newcastle midfielder Joey Barton on a four-year deal, although he might not be eligible to play.
They are also unbeaten in their previous games at Wigan, while they boasted the best away record in the Championship last term.
A close game beckons and that is why we can?t separate them so a draw is the likeliest outcome.

Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 23/10
Value Bet: Wigan/Draw HT/FT @ 14/1

Blackburn v Everton (3pm)

An early season basement battle at Ewood Park will see the under-fire Steve Kean’s Rovers go head-to-head with David Moyes’ Toffees.
Rovers have lost their opening two games, while Everton have only played one – but lost at Goodison Park to new boys QPR last Saturday.
Something will have to give this weekend and Kean will hope captain Chris Samba can make his first appearance of the season after overcoming a groin injury, while here could be a debut for new midfield signing Simon Vukcevic.
Everton usually do well at Blackburn, although they lost the first match in seven on the opening day of last season (9/4 Home 90 Minutes).
And, with money sparse for new signings Moyes will be hoping Tim Cahill (13/8 Anytime Goalscorer) can end his 11-match run without a league goal.
Winger Diniyar Bilyaletdinov is available after completing a three-match ban, while fit-again pair Mikel Arteta and Marouane Fellaini are set for their first league starts of the season.
Another tight game, but we fancy Everton to get their season up and running while heaping more misery on Kean.

Prediction: Everton Away 90 Minutes @ 13/10
Value Bet: Everton 2-1 Correct score @ 8/1

Chelsea v Norwich (3pm)

New Chelsea boss Andre Villas-Boas got his first taste of victory last weekend with a narrow win against West Brom at Stamford Bridge, while ten-man Norwich snatched a draw from the jaws of victory at Carrow Road when Stoke – who held Chelsea on the opening weekend – scored an injury time equaliser.
Chelsea have won seven of their last eight league games on home soil and Villas-Boas will look for that to be eight out of nine on Saturday evening.
New signing Juan Mata is likely to be on the bench, but David Luiz is set to miss out due to his ongoing thigh problem, while Hilario will again deputise for injured number one goalkeeper Petr Cech.
Unbeaten Norwich failed to win on the road in their previous Premier League campaign in 2004/05 and will be looking for a first away-day success in the top flight at the 32nd attempt.
Boss Paul Lambert has Leon Barnett back from suspension following his red card against Stoke.
But recent signing Daniel Ayala is out for eight weeks with a knee injury, while Wes Hoolahan is doubtful with a hamstring problem.
Chelsea have won their last three games against Norwich at Stamford Bridge 4-0 (17/2 Correct Score) and that tells you everything you need to know when considering a punt on Saturday’s showdown.

Prediction: Chelsea Home 90 Minutes @ 1/5
Value Bet: Juan Mata Last Goalscorer @ 5/1

Swansea v Sunderland (3pm)

These two sides meet at the Liberty Stadium boasting just one point from their opening two games of the season so a first win will be the top priority for Swans boss Brendan Rodgers and his Black Cats counterpart Steve Bruce.
Swansea have the omens on their side have they won the previous three games in South Wales – albeit they last met in the 1982-83 season.
However, they will have to try and get a fourth win without Garry Monk, who remains sidelined by a foot injury, and knee injury victim Ferrie Boddie.
Bruce’s Wearsiders have endured a difficult week after following up a creditable opening day draw at Liverpool with a North-East derby defeat against Newcastle at the Stadium of Light and a Carling up reverse at Brighton.
Sunderlan, who are set to hand John O’Shea his debut, have lost 11 of their last 16 games in the Premier League and will have to work hard to ensure that tally is not added to on Saturday.

Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 23/10
Value Bet: Swansea/Draw HT/FT @ 14/1

Liverpool v Bolton (5.30pm)

King Kenny Dalglish’s Reds got their season up and running with an impressive 2-0 win at Arsenal last Saturday after being held by Sunderland a week earlier, while Bolton followed up their opening day 4-0 romp at QPR with a 3-2 home defeat to Manchester City on Sunday.
However, the Merseysiders appear to have an Indian sign over the Trotters having won their last nine games against them, keeping six clean sheets in the process.
And, Dalglish will be looking for that to be 10 on Saturday, although he might have to do without Glen Johnson, who faces a fitness test on a hamstring problem.
Luis Suarez is certain to start after being on the bench at Arsenal, while Andy Carroll will look to score his first league goal of the season after notching at Exeter in the Carling Cup in the week.
Bolton boss Owen Coyle will hope he can end his side’s 55-year wait for maximum points at Anfield, although he will be without left-back Marcos Alonso after he broke a bone in his foot in the League Cup win against Macclesfield.
Gretar Steinsson, Sam Ricketts and Tyrone Mears are also sidelined for the encounter which is likely to see Liverpool continue their good run against the Wanderers.

Prediction: Liverpool Home 90 Minutes @ 2/5
Value Bet: Andy Carroll 1st Goal Liverpool 2-0 Scorecast @ 14/1

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How do you replace a man like Roy?

Fulham have set about the task of replacing Roy Hodgson in time for the big Premier League kick-off at Bolton (Fulham 9/5 to win) but have placed Ray Lewington in caretaker charge in the meantime.

As expected, Hodgson has left Craven Cottage for Liverpool officially on Thursday and Fulham now have the almost impossible task of trying to replace the man who turned them from Premier League strugglers to Europa League finalists.

Hodgson worked wonders during his time at the club with one of the smallest squads in the Premier League and they are huge shoes to fill.

The Liverpool fans may not be over-excited at the appointment, but the Fulham fans will be gutted to have lost their leader and will now be wondering who is capable of replacing him.

It is the million dollar question and in a way you have to feel sorry for Hodgson’s replacement in the same way you did when Sammy Lee took over from Sam Allardyce at Bolton and when Ian Dowie replaced Alan Curbishley at Charlton.

Can Fulham get any higher than last season? Probably not so the new manager can only go one way and that is probably another reason Hodgson left for the bright lights of Liverpool as he no doubt felt he had taken them as far as he could.

Lewington has been handed the job in the meantime but no doubt the Cottagers will be seaking a more high-profile appointment to build on the great work that Hodgson achieved.

A statement from Fulham read: “Fulham confirm that at 9.20am this morning, Roy Hodgson resigned from his position of first-team manager, effective immediately.

“The club would like to wish Roy the very best for the future and thanks him for all that was achieved during his tenure.  Ray Lewington will take temporary charge of team matters until a successor is announced in due course.”

A shortlist will be drawn up in the coming days, expected to include the likes of Sven Goran Eriksson, Mark Hughes and possibly Curbishley, with Fulham fans praying a return to scrapping for survival is not looming again next season.

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How do you replace a man like Roy?

Fulham have set about the task of replacing Roy Hodgson in time for the big Premier League kick-off at Bolton (Fulham 9/5 to win) but have placed Ray Lewington in caretaker charge in the meantime.

As expected, Hodgson has left Craven Cottage for Liverpool officially on Thursday and Fulham now have the almost impossible task of trying to replace the man who turned them from Premier League strugglers to Europa League finalists.

Hodgson worked wonders during his time at the club with one of the smallest squads in the Premier League and they are huge shoes to fill.

The Liverpool fans may not be over-excited at the appointment, but the Fulham fans will be gutted to have lost their leader and will now be wondering who is capable of replacing him.

It is the million dollar question and in a way you have to feel sorry for Hodgson’s replacement in the same way you did when Sammy Lee took over from Sam Allardyce at Bolton and when Ian Dowie replaced Alan Curbishley at Charlton.

Can Fulham get any higher than last season? Probably not so the new manager can only go one way and that is probably another reason Hodgson left for the bright lights of Liverpool as he no doubt felt he had taken them as far as he could.

Lewington has been handed the job in the meantime but no doubt the Cottagers will be seaking a more high-profile appointment to build on the great work that Hodgson achieved.

A statement from Fulham read: “Fulham confirm that at 9.20am this morning, Roy Hodgson resigned from his position of first-team manager, effective immediately.

“The club would like to wish Roy the very best for the future and thanks him for all that was achieved during his tenure.  Ray Lewington will take temporary charge of team matters until a successor is announced in due course.”

A shortlist will be drawn up in the coming days, expected to include the likes of Sven Goran Eriksson, Mark Hughes and possibly Curbishley, with Fulham fans praying a return to scrapping for survival is not looming again next season.

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