The Celeste were expected to challenge Argentina and Brazil in their quests for the Copa America after so impressively reaching the semi-finals of the World Cup last year. However, life has been far from simple for Uruguay and they have found themselves in a tougher group than many expected, with Peru and Chile having impressed. Draws against Chile and Peru has left Uruguay needing a win against Mexico to make it through, with the CONCACAF Gold Cup winners having lost their previous two matches.

As expected Uruguay are the 2/5 favourites, with Mexico a big 7/1 and the draw 14/5. The last time these two sides met was in the group stages of the World Cup, Luis Suarez getting the only goal of the game as both nations progressed to the latter stages. From that Mexican team that played in Rustenberg, South Africa, only Giovanni Dos Santos is expected to feature.

For those of you who haven’t followed the build-up to the tournament the Mexican FA suspended a number of their top players for ill discipline and have had to name a very youthful squad for the Copa America after their exploits in the Gold Cup. They are the whipping boys of the group and if Uruguay don’t get a result against them questions will be asked to where it has all gone wrong from 12 months ago.

The names that impressed at the World Cup are still there, Diego Lugano, Cristian Rodriquez, Forlan and Suarez. However, things don’t appear to be clicking at this time for Oscar Tabarez’s men and time is running out for them to get it right. History is on their side in this competition, they are the joint-most successful team in Copa America history and have reached the semi-finals or final in the last four tournaments.

They need a spark and based on his form for Liverpool before the end of the season Suarez might be the man to provide it. He is 4/1 first/last goalscorer and evens to score anytime, the same odds as Forlan. However, while Forlan endured a torrid season at Atletico Madrid and comes into the tournament in no real form, Suarez impressed in the Premier League and,  like Lionel Messi for Argentina against Costa Rica if he can shine then so can Uruguay.

Uruguay have never beaten Mexico in a Copa America match but that record should be broken on Wednesday night.

Don’t expect a high scoring game – under 2.5 goals at 4/5 could be a safe bet – but surely there can only be one winner if Uruguay awake from their slumber.

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