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Right, so it’s a bit neck-and-neck at the top of La Liga just at the moment and we’ve six games left.
The top two might meet in the Champions League Final and they don’t particularly like each other.
It’s kinda tense.

Which makes Barcelona’s stroll across the city to Espanyol not exactly a … stroll. There’s a Spain Oddity, which might appeal to David Bowie, whereby if two teams finish on identical points the first criterion via which to separate them is – head-to-head. It becomes a little like a Cup tie. ‘Which team won more of the Liga meetings between the two and if it has been a win apiece then what’s the goal aggregate?’

Thus it is that if Barcelona should drop two points between now and the end of the season and Madrid win all their games they’ll finish tied on 94 points. The reason that Madrid would win the title in that scenario is that the first Clásico ended 3-1 to Carlo Ancelotti’s side while Barça won the second 2-1 – ergo Madrid win the title on a 4-3 aggregate over their nearest rivals.

I think it’s a cool system.

So what Madridistas are doing this weekend is sending positive vibes to the only other set of fans who dislike the Blaugrana just as much as they do – those at Espanyol. Just as a matter of interest, the last time Spain’s Primera Division was settled on the head-to-head rule was as recently as 2007 – Madrid winning thanks to a victory and a draw in the two Clásicos.

Espanyol fans will be dreaming, happily of their part in that when on the penultimate day, after Leo Messi had put Barcelona ahead with a Maradona-style ‘it was my head ref honest!’ goal via his hand, they equalized in the last minute and effectively cost Frank Rijkaard’s side the title.

It’s not identical this weekend because the Catalan derby is being played in Cornella, not at the Camp Nou. But there’s a hint of … ‘could we screw them up again?’ The hard fact for the league leaders is that while they’ve only lost three times in the last 24 away Catalan derbies [and since the Power8 stadium was inaugurated in 2009 they’ve three wins and two draws] not even a draw is guaranteed to keep them top.

In fact it’s feasible that dropping points here could cost Luis Enrique’s men the treble. Feasible at least.
So, how to call it?

In Barcelona’s favour – attitude, determination not to cede the title to Madrid, determination not to trip up here of all places, a good winning run, Suárez and Neymar on good goal form.

A photo posted by FC Barcelona (@fcbarcelona) on Apr 15, 2015 at 1:46pm PDT

Against them – the fact that they aren’t putting in 90 minute performances too regularly right now. A draw at Sevilla thanks to a major second half drop off, a thrashing of PSG in the making at 2-0 up by half time and in total charge surrendered because they drop into cruise-control for the rest of the match. Espanyol – their two great positives are ex Madrid keeper Kiko Casilla and ex Barça striker Sergio García.

Casilla says: “When it comes to this derby it doesn’t matter the size of your budget or your salary bill – it’s us v them and they aren’t the only ones with a say in who wins the league”. Fightin’ talk.

Los Periquitos have only conceded four times in eight matches and a draw’s not impossible here. Barcelona, on form, will win and stay top – Suárez and Piqué profile as possible scorers. Neymar? One in seven in La Liga, four in four all comps. But Espanyol not to be discounted – a 0-0, a 1-1 and a 1-0 are three of the last five results in this fixture. Barça have every important player available, Espanyol bring back Salva Sevilla and Juan Fuentes while Víctor Sánchez is suspended against his old team and Felipe Mattioni injured.

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Atletico Madrid v Elche – Saturday, 5pm

Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile There were more good words than good play from Atleti in midweek when they lost the Madrid derby and exited the Champions League. Cholo Simeone refused to blame the referee for Arda’s red card, all the players who spoke mentioned departing the competition with pride, that they’d be back soon and more determined than ever. There was a ‘we’ve not let anybody down vibe’. Now we’ll see whether the painted smiles masked broken hearts. This is when the reigning champions need to prove that they gave their utmost against Madrid, that they left beaten but unbowed and that they are capable of not carrying any psychological after-effects into this match. Atleti’s four point lead over Valencia, guaranteeing them Champions League revenue again next season is utterly vital for this club and you can expect them to fight like tigers to protect it. You can expect the fans to show defiance by turning up and howling their support for Los Rojiblancos. But was there any damage done between Cholo and Griezmann when the in-form youngster was bizarrely removed from the game in midweek? Otherwise he should have goal solutions …. and it’s time Mandzukic, Torres and Raúl García came to the party again in that respect. Elche? Only two teams have scored fewer than them, only two have scored more than them … so how they hell are they within a win and a draw of staying up? Because they lose to the big guns and neatly pick off the weaklings around them – Cordoba, Levante, Almeria, Eibar. Only if Atleti are carrying a big hangover from losing to Madrid is this not a two goal win for the champions. Gabi and Mario Mandzukic, are back with respect to the Depor game – only Mario Suárez, Ansaldi and Cani are dropped. Get on Graham’s tips: Desktop | Mobile

Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano – Sunday, 6pm

Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile Last week I suggested the big question was: ‘when will Sevilla’s huge European exertions cost them a ‘hangover’ in La Liga?’ the only sad thing being that I didn’t say: right here! This’ll be a 1-1 draw! Different story here you’d imagine. Although the Europa League holders had to travel to and from St Petersburg this week and that doesn’t come without an impact on freshness of mind or physical tiredness the buzz of having eliminated Zenit, the really top quality performance in Russia and the fact that they are at home should be a positive cocktail of advantages.

.@DenisSuarez36: “Mi trabajo se ve recompensado hoy” http://t.co/iXro39SPpk #vamosmisevilla #UEL pic.twitter.com/dFSUw1Qt7D

— Sevilla Fútbol Club (@SevillaFC) April 16, 2015

Remember – Sevilla are 24 home games without defeat in over a year, they have a deep squad, they are desperately trying to get a finger-hold on fourth place and they’ve beaten Rayo 5-2, 2-1 and 4-1 the last three meetings.
Indeed while Paco Jemez’s side is fun to watch and has massively over-performed to be so high up La Liga they’ve still lost six of their last seven away matches and twice conceded six goal defeats in doing so.

Beto had a ‘mare for Sevilla and Sergio Rico should return, Pareja is out for months with ligament damage but Iborra, Reyes, Denis Suárez and Gameiro are all available to add freshness to Unai Emery’s athletic, hard running team. Both teams to score, Bacca, Vitolo, Gameiro all looking backable for the Europa League holders.

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Celta Vigo v Real Madrid – Sunday, 8pm

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Of course, even if the underdogs win the Catalan derby it’s never straightforward at the top of La Liga. In theory, Barcelona could suffer the embarrassment of dropping points to a cock-a-hoop Espanyol .. but then be rescued by the team which Luis Enrique made.

Madrid, fresh from their agonizing and tiring derby on Wednesday via which they sneaked past Atlético and into the Champions League semi final must visit the Balaidos Stadium in Vigo where they never get a pleasant welcome and where, last year, they lost. In fact it’s just short of a year since Los Blancos formally kissed goodbye to the title in that 2-0 defeat to Luis Enrique’s mob – both goals scored by Charles.

It was a Madrid team shorn of Ronaldo, Benzema, Carvajal, Pepe and which needed to put Raúl de Tomas, Burgui and Willian José on the bench. They’ve all gone on to great things of course …. hold on. No. And, symmetrically, this huge test of nerve and desire comes when Ancelotti will be without Benzema, Bale and Modric for sure. Marcelo returns and, just as with Barcelona in their match, if Madrid play near their top they can certainly win.

But it may influence how you punt to know that before last season the last time Celta beat Madrid at the Balaídos in La Liga was 2001. [Celta did win 2-1 in La Copa back in 2012]

In between there were six straight Madrid wins – no draws – but five of those wins were by a single goal. Three 1-2’s and two 0-1’s. Almost without exception it’s a hostile, characterful place with a fishing/industrial background and a blue-collar attitude to match the Celta shirts.

Complacency is usually punished. Nolito, as always, is Celta’s best and most threatening player although Larrivey may profit from the aerial ball into the box. That said while Santi Mina’s four goals this season all came against Rayo he’s a quick-footed talent whose reputation would soar if he scored here.

Madrid by a goal would be the percentage bet but go figure for yourselves what the impact of tiredness, tension and injury absences might do.

James Rodríguez is the shining light right now – not only talented and fully integrated but consistently behaving like a team leader. His link up play with Ronaldo and Chicharito make Madrid very tempting here. There’s enough to suggest that both teams score but that Madrid out-gun the light blues.

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Espanyol and Barca to draw, Atletico and Real Madrid to win – 9/1

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Томаш Бердых – Энди Маррей. Что самое обсуждаемое сейчас на US Open? Нет, это даже не теннисные баталии, происходящие на кортах Флашинг Медоуз. Самое занимательное сейчас для зрителей – это погода! И что самое неутешительное, для теннисных болельщиков – это прогноз на сегодняшний день…

На всю субботу безоблачная погода планируется только на утреннюю часть дня, ну максимум до обеда, а дальше только дождь, да гроза! И ладно бы суббота, но даже на большую часть воскресенья прогноз обещает дождь и грозы, так что похоже очередной Открытый Чемпионат США не закончится в срок. По словам организаторов, строить крышу они не собираются, даже не смотря на большие финансовые штрафы телевизионным компаниям, у которых финал в понедельник вечером не вызывает большого оптимизма.

Томаш Бердых 2.65 уже может быть уверенным в том, что он не зря приехал в Нью-Йорк. В четвертьфинале он обыграл самого Роджера Федерера, а это согласитесь уже не так и мало. А вот ему удастся убрать со своей дороги еще одного представителя «фантастической четверки»?  Вопрос открыт…

Энди Маррей 1.44 провел крайне удивительную встречу с Марианом Чиличем, ну хотя бы то, что во втором сете он проигрывал со счетом 1:5 и сумел выиграть  7:6!!! И это не говоря, что первый сет выиграл хорват. Сам Энди заметил, что второй сет не столько выиграл он, сколько Чилич не совладал с нервами.

В этом году, мы наблюдаем за другим Энди Марреем, который стал меньше нервничать и больше побеждать, как отмечает сам шотландец – это плоды работы с Иваном Лендлом. Думаю, этот матч может получиться очень затяжным и не только по причине погоды, но и чисто по игре. Не исключу, что все будет решаться в пятом сете.

Давид Феррер – Новак Джокович. Если никто не может знать, когда закончится первый матч этого игрового дня, то вот в противостоянии серба и испанца никто не может поручиться даже за то, когда он начнется…

Матчи, прерываемые дождями, имеют настолько рваный ритм, что инициатива может переходить от одного игрока к другому, но как мне кажется у Новака 1.08 достаточно крепкая нервная система и он уверенно пробьется в финал!

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Swansea City v Man City 2pm

Roberto Mancini has suffered a big blow with captain Vincent Kompany ruled out with a calf injury picked up in the 1-0 defeat at Sporting Lisbon in the Europa League, and Pablo Zabaleta also misses the trip to the Liberty Stadium while there are doubts over defensive duo Micah Richards and Joleon Lescott.

Not an ideal situation to be heading to South Wales where the Swans have been beaten just twice this season but City do have strength in their squad to cover for such eventualities.

City’s hopes of keeping a fifth clean sheet on the bounce have been hit on the face of it, but Swansea have struggled to score for large parts of the season, having failed to score in 11 of their 27 games.

Scott Sinclair and Danny Graham could cause one or two problems but Nathan Dyer’s absence is key for the Swans, who suffered a 4-0 mauling at the Etihad Stadium on the opening day of the season.

Going forward, City have a wealth of options and there is no reason why the leaders cannot capitalise on that strength to get the three points (Swansea 5/1, Draw 11/4, City 8/13 Match Betting).

Man United v West Brom 2pm

The champions have never lost to West Brom in the Premier League and have won six of their last seven Premier League games but there looks to be value in opposing United in the match betting (Man Utd 2/7, Draw 9/2, WBA 11/1 Match Betting).

Sir Alex Ferguson’s men go into the game on the back of a 3-2 reverse at Old Trafford in the Europa League – a scoreline which flattered the home side – and West Brom have hit form of late.

The Baggies have smashed both Wolves and a Martin O’Neill rejuvenated Sunderland as well as ending the reign of Andre Villas-Boas at Chelsea to climb up to 10th place in the table.

Roy Hodgson’s men also have a better record on their travels than they do at the Hawthorns, and proved they can match United by coming from 2-0 down at Old Trafford last season to snatch a point.

United are second in the table and do have quality in their ranks but it has often misfired this season and Albion at 11/1 look worthy of consideration.

At the very least, they can get amongst the goals so backing over 2.5 goals at 8/15 or Albion with a goal start at 13/5 should not be overlooked.

Norwich v Wigan 4pm

Wigan are in desperate need of the points to boost their bid for survival and perhaps stave off a growing anxiety in the ranks – with chairman Dave Whelan having a pop at his players following last weekend’s defeat to Swansea.

Norwich have enjoyed their return to the top-flight and comfortably sit in mid-table with a 13-point cushion over the relegation zone.

The Canaries do not seemingly have any pressure on them going into the game, other than the weight of expectation as they are the 5/6 favourites in the match betting, with Latics available at 10/3 and the draw at 13/5.

Roberto Martinez can seemingly count on the support of his boss but that may well come into question if the club continues to struggle – and it is difficult seeing that changing on Sunday.

Wigan have mustered just four wins all season and have now gone 12 matches without a victory, while goals continue to be a problem, having scored a mere 23 to date.

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USA

O’Neill made the decision to quit the club after four years in charge at Villa Park and as yet no reason has been given for his departure, just days before the new season kicks off.

It has been speculated the former Celtic and Leicester boss may have stepped down over the club’s sale of James Milner, with the England midfielder expected to sign for Manchester City after the Three Lion’s friendly with Hungary on Wednesday for a fee of around £24million.

Tottenham are also said to be keen on Villa winger Ashley Young and although little is known about any potential deal involving Young, the wider media have suggested that O’Neill is said to be disappointed the club are planning to sell his star players without giving him a sufficient budget to draft in replacements.

Villa’s American owner, Randy Lerner, is now on the look-out for a replacement and his compatriot Bradley is among the early contenders to take over at Villa, with the USA coach admitting he would welcome a move to Europe at some point.

“I have said over and over as well that I am always excited about new and different challenges,” said Bradley.

“Certainly coaching in Europe at some point is something that I would love to do.”

However, Bradley did not rule out the possibility that he would remain with the USA and lead them through their qualification campaign for the 2014 World Cup.

The USA take on Brazil, who will host the 2014 tournament, in a friendly on Wednesday and Bradley is expected to make a decision regarding his future following the tie (USA 3/1, draw 9/4, Brazil 4/5).

He added: “At the same time, I also consider it a challenge when you finish one (World Cup ) cycle and begin the process of working on another one. From the time one World Cup ends, you begin to go through the process of assessing where you are.”

Former England boss Sven-Goran Eriksson has also been linked with the vacant manager’s position at Villa Park, while Martin Jol and Slaven Bilic have also been suggested as possible candidates.

Reserve team coach Kevin MacDonald will take charge for Villa’s season opener against West Ham (Match Betting – Villa 8/11, draw 12/5, West Ham 16/5).

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Cesc Fabregas

The Gunners captain is away with Spain at the World Cup finals but the Catalan giants’ pursuit of his signature is well documented, with incoming Barca president Sandro Rosell looking to bring in a marquee player.

Fabregas appears to be keeping his options well and truly open, however, as he instead concentrates on Spain’s bid to add the world crown to the Euro 2008 title (Spain 11/4 Outright).

The 23-year-old told The Mirror: “I haven’t said that I will definitely leave Arsenal.

“Everything is possible. Now I have my head and my focus on the World Cup.

“I am very proud to be captain of Arsenal and I love the club and have respect for them. It gave me much pride to be made captain.”

Fabregas joined Arsenal as a 16-year-old and has gone on to make almost 200 career appearances for the north Londoners.

But Vilassar de Mar-born central midfielder has found it harder to establish himself in La Roja’s XI since his debut in 2006, with strong competition from the likes of Xavi, Andres Iniesta, David Silva, Xabi Alonso, Sergio Busquets and Marcos Senna over the years.

Spain have made it through to the quarter-finals of the World Cup where they face Paraguay in Johannesburg on Saturday (Paraguay 7/1, draw 11/4, Spain 1/2 – 90 Minutes).

And Barcelona star Xavi reckons Vicente del Bosque’s men are finding form at just the right time after losing their opening group game to Switzerland despite dominating over 90 minutes.

Speaking after the win over Iberian peninsula neighbours Portugal in the second round, the 30-year-old said: ?We played a great game. It was a great collective effort.

“We maintained possession and we wanted to play our style of football.

“Portugal basically gave us the ball. They tried to regain possession for counter-attacks but we dealt with it.

“We really enjoyed our football. It was the best match we’ve played in this World Cup so far.

“We controlled the ball in both halves but maybe attacked more in the second.

“We scored the goal and then we could enjoy it more.”

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The Blues were involved in their own derby with Tottenham later in the day with the chance to restore a four point cushion at the top.

Spurs have plenty to play for though. United’s victory opened up the route to fourth place for Harry Redknapp’s squad, who could now pass Manchester City; and after seeing off Arsenal in midweek any hangover from their FA Cup semi-final defeat had long past.

Spurs seized their chance and beat Chelsea more comfortably that the 2-1 scoreline suggests. Worse still for the league leaders, they had John Terry sent off for a second bookable offence.

It means Manchester United sit just a point adrift with three games to go. Chelsea have a three goal advantage in goal difference, which could be crucial on the final day, but the nerves have shifted to Stamford Bridge.

Spurs may have a crucial say in the title race. They wrecked Arsenal’s chances on Wednesday and put a severe dent in Chelsea hopes over the weekend- and their next opponents are Manchester United at Old Trafford.

You Can Bet on this Outcome: Premiership Title Race

Harry Redknapp’s team will be highly motivated and confident for that encounter, fully aware that Manchester City have tough games to come on their run-in. They have a two point lead over Roberto Mancini’s side and even a point at Old Trafford would keep them in the box seat in the race for fourth.

Chelsea were aware that they could afford a single defeat in their last five games, so long as the other four matches ended in victory. Their margin for error has gone now. They will be expected to win their two home games but a trip to Liverpool is potentially a huge obstacle.

It will be a matter of some irony that Manchester United fans are going to have to rely on the club they detest to give them a realistic chance of turning round what appeared to be a lost cause.

Related posts:

1. Race For Premiership Trophy Turns In Man United’s Favour
2. Premiership Predictions: Arsenal Can Throw Pressure On Title Rivals
3. Arsenal v Man United: Premiership Title Contenders Are Too Close To Call

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