Barcelona v Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen’s traditionally poor away form in the Champions League makes it difficult to predict anything other than a comfortable passage into the quarter-finals for Barcelona.

The Germans have gone 12 matches without an away win on the road in Europe, while the Catalan giants, who lead 3-1 from the first leg, have been in imperious form domestically since the last encounter, and are unbeaten in 14 home games in the Champions League.

At 20/1 (match prices), it’d be unwise to back Bayer Leverkusen to win at Camp Nou, while there is little value to be gained from backing Barca at 1/7.

But the Germans, for whom striker Stefan Kiessling is good form, have scored eight goals in their last three Bundesliga matches and haven’t failed to score in Europe since September. At 4/1 to score anytime, 28-year-old Kiessling is certainly worth consideration.

Barca have scored 30 goals in their last 10 home Champions League matches and should be expected to continue that attacking form, particularly with the reassurance of a two-goal cushion heading into the match.

It’s likely that the irrepressible Lionel Messi will be at the centre of any action in the final third, and for him to score first in another 3-1 Barcelona win is not beyond the realms of probability. At 16/1, that particular score-cast is definitely worth a look at.

APOEL v Lyon

It is more difficult to predict a winner in Cyprus, where APOEL will look to overturn a 1-0 first-leg deficit when they host Lyon on Wednesday.

The Cypriots have been strong at home in Europe of late, with a group match defeat to Shakhtar Donetsk this season their only home reverse in seven home Champions League fixtures.

Lyon, meanwhile, have been in poor form since their first-leg win over APOEL, conceding six goals in two Ligue 1 matches. That’s worth bearing in mind, particularly when you consider that you can get 11/4 on four or more goals being scored on the night.

“It’s hugely disappointing, but we have to stand right behind the team…we need to bounce back mentally,” said Lyon chairman Jean-Michel Aulas, after the embarrassing 2-0 defeat to Nancy.

The Cypriots, on the other hand, are doing well domestically, and represent good value at 2/1 to beat their French opponents after 90 minutes.

APOEL rarely concede more than once at home so it’d be wise to avoid a correct score selection in favour of Lyon of anything other than 1-0. At 5/1, that particular correct score selection isn’t a bad option for those who fancy the French outfit to steal a win.

Bafetimbi Gomis has already netted five times in the Champions League this season, and is decent value at 5/1 to score first. If Gomis does find the net for Lyon then they are at 20/1 to defend that lead.

For APOEL, expect Brazilian striker Ailton to be on the end of a few searching balls. He’s worth considering at 7/4 to convert at least one of them into a goal and add to the three he’s already grabbed in Europe so far this season.

If Ailton does find his form, then expect more goals to follow. Ailton’s goal being the first of a 2-2 draw on the night can be bought at 75/1 and, though Remi Garde’s men are favourites to win the win the match, a 3-1 victory for APOEL following an Ailton opener is still great value at 100/1.

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Arjen Robben

The Spaniards dominated their semi-final against a very defensive Germany side and the Bayern Munich midfielder is determined his side will not suffer the same fate.

“We will defend from the front,” said Robben. “No-one here feels they are too special to get their hands dirty.

“I was surprised with how freely Germany let Spain play. We have to start pressing them earlier.”

Spain have dominated possession in their games so far in the tournament with players such as Xavi, Iniesta and Xabi Alonso controlling the pace of the game with their patient passing approach.

The key to a Dutch success could be down to the performance of the Oranje’s defensive midfielder Mark Van Bommel who has been key alongside Nigel De Jong in breaking down play and winning the ball in order to give it to Holland’s more creative players.

The Bayern midfielder came under criticism for a number of robust challenges in the semi-final against Uruguay, one which led to Holland’s first goal and was eventually shown a yellow card for kicking the ball away in the final moments.

However, Dutch coach Bert Van Marwijk, who is also Van Bommel’s father-in-law says he sees no problem in the midfielder’s aggressive approach.

“I don’t agree with what people are saying,” said Van Marwijk. “The yellow card on Tuesday was his first in the entire competition. He has shown a lot of discipline in his play.”

Despite winning all of their six games so-far in the tournament, the Oranje have come under fire for shunning the traditional Dutch style of ‘total football’ in favour of a more pragmatic approach.

The total football philosophy was first employed by the Dutch side in 1974 who went on to lose 2-1 in the final to hosts West Germany. They went on to lose again in the final in 1978 and Robben says his side are happy to expense with his nation’s traditional flair in the favour of winning football (Robben 9/1 first goal scorer).

“I would much prefer to win a very ugly game than lose a beautiful one,” said Robben. “We can still play attractive football but we can always rely on our good organisation as well.

“If you are organised, you know one goal could be enough, which has been the case so far. The point is, we are in a World Cup final. From now on how you actually play no longer matters.

“Of course, the intent is there to play good football but the result is far more important.

“We have heard enough of talk about how our football is very nice. But it gets you nowhere. We want to achieve something.”

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