Tag Archives: Race

Promotion race boiling over

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With only two games remaining in the regular Championship campaign there are still plenty of matters to be resolved with regards to the battle for automatic promotion and scrap to seal a place in the end-of-season play-offs (npower Championship promotion 2010-11).

Only Neil Warnock’s QPR side seem to be assured of a place in the Premier League next season, although they were forced to put the champagne on ice after Norwich’s 96th minute winner against Derby on Easter Monday.

However, with a far superior goal difference and just one point required from their final two matches, the Hoops are finally set to seal their place at the top table of English football and can then focus on wrapping up the Championship title.

The battle to join them, as always, has turned out to be a nerve-jangling, goal-filled affair which has maintained the Championship as one of the most entertaining leagues in world football.

Norwich City

Paul Lambert’s Canaries (1/2 Promotion) are in the box-seat to join QPR in the Premier League automatically as they know wins in their final two games against sides which have nothing to play for  – Portsmouth at Fratton Park on Monday and at home to Coventry on May 7 – will see them clinch back-to-back promotions.

Norwich also appear to have hit form at the right time since a 3-0 defeat at Swansea on April 9 by going four matches unbeaten, including three successive wins in which they have scored 10 goals.

Cardiff City

Dave Jones’ Bluebirds (10/11 Promotion) are now the only side who can realistically take second place as fourth-placed South Wales rivals Swansea must win their final two matches and hope both Norwich and Cardiff lose.

They sit a point behind Norwich with two games remaining – against mid-table Middlesbrough at home on Monday and a tough trip to play-off chasing Burnley on the final day.

However, as far as momentum is concerned, Cardiff have the edge as they have not lost since a 1-0 reverse at Crystal Palace on March 8 with five wins and three draws in the bag since.

The fight to secure the final play-off place is also bubbling along nicely as Cardiff or Norwich, Swansea (13/5 Promotion) and Reading (9/4 Promotion) will be joined by Nottingham Forest, Leeds, Millwall or Burnley and even Hull in 10th spot have an outside chance.

Nottingham Forest

Billy Davies’ side (9/2 Promotion) looked certain for an automatic promotion spot at one stage, before embarking on a disastrous run which saw them slip out of the top-six.

However, they seem to have found some form at the right time to take back the final play-off spot with a two-point cushion thanks to three wins in their last four games, including successive 3-2 victories.

A City Ground date against a Scunthorpe side that is virtually relegated and a trip to a Crystal Palace side that is virtually safe from the drop should also boost Forest’s hopes.

Millwall

Kenny Jackett’s seventh-placed side (9/1 Promotion) are the dark horses in the race for a play-off place as they have ‘done a Blackpool’ by storming from nowhere to become real contenders thanks to six wins and only one defeat in their last nine league games.

They welcome Swansea to the intimidating Den before travelling to face a mid-table Barnsley side that could well have the deck chairs out on the final day.

Plus, if the Lions do roar into the play-offs, the fact they came up from League One by the same route last season will no doubt stand them in good stead.

Burnley

Eddie Howe has impressed since taking over the Clarets (9/1 Promotion) from Brian Laws earlier in the season as he has reversed their flagging fortunes to put them back into the play-off picture.

They sit in eighth spot, level on 67 points with Millwall, following a run of three wins and a draw from their previous four matches which ended a damaging run of four straight defeats.

However, they face a much tougher run-in with a trip to play-off chasing rivals Leeds before a visit of promotion-chasing Cardiff which will not help their cause.

Leeds United

Simon Grayson’s Whites (12/1 Promotion) looked certainties for the play-offs but they have pressed the self-destruct button in recent games. Just one win in eight games has left them in ninth spot and three points off Forest in sixth spot.

Therefore they need to win their final two matches – against Burnley one place above them at Elland Road and at champions-elect QPR on the final day – and hope their rivals slip-up.

It looks a tall order and it seems that Leeds will still be in the Championship next season.

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Who will win race for top four?

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Manchester City managed to book their place in the FA Cup final with a memorable 1-0 win over rivals Manchester United at Wembley on Saturday, but they must now quickly switch their focus back on staying in the top four as the battle between the Eastlands club and Spurs for Champions League football next season hots up over the coming weeks (City 1/4, Spurs 12/5 – Top 4 finish).

With just over a month of the Premier League season remaining, we are no closer to knowing who will secure that lucrative fourth-place finish and a spot in Europe’s top club competition for next term, but here we get our crystal ball out to take a look at both club’s run-ins to see if we can work out who stands the best chance.

City remaining fixtures:

Blackburn (a)
West Ham (h)
Everton (a)
Spurs (h)
Stoke (h)
Bolton (a)

Spurs’ remaining fixtures:

Arsenal (h)
West Brom (h)
Chelsea (a)
Blackpool (h)
Man City (a)
Liverpool (a)
Birmingham (h)

A quick scan of the remaining games for both teams throws up some mouth-watering showdowns but it’s fair to say City, with a game less to play, have the slightly easier run-in.

Spurs’ last seven games begin with one of their biggest of the season when local rivals Arsenal visit White Hart Lane. The Gunners remain – just about – in the title race following their 1-1 draw against Liverpool on Sunday but we can see a Spurs win in this on Wednesday to effectively end Arsenal’s hopes of finishing top of the pile.

Following that don’t expect West Brom to pick up anything when they arrive at the Lane on Saturday but the trip to Chelsea next up could be the day when City gain the upper hand in this particular battle. A home win is the prediction here which means only a win over Blackpool on May 7 will do for Harry Redknapp’s men. But with the Seasiders absolutely desperate for points themselves, Ian Holloway’s side can come away from London with a point to leave Spurs firmly in fifth with just three games to go.

A draw in the showdown with City is the not-so adventurous prediction in the big game between the two on May 10 before a trip to Liverpool is next for Spurs. We can also see this ending all square meaning a win on the final day against Birmingham will be too little, too late.

City’s final league games start with a very winnable trip to struggling Blackburn next Monday.

Roberto Mancini’s side were poor at Liverpool last week but expect them to have enough to see off woefully out-of-form Rovers, who are in freefall and failed to muster a shot on target at Everton on Saturday until injury time!

Next up is a home game with West Ham, who are also fighting for their lives at the bottom. However, again a City win looks on the cards here in front of their own fans for the first time since the Cup semi-final triumph.

One of City’s toughest games in the final month is undoubtedly the trip to Everton on May 7, but with the Toffees safe and without a chance of qualifying for Europe, they may have already switched off by then so a vital away win at Goodison Park should be do-able.

The pivotal clash in the fourth-place battle is obviously the midweek game between the pair on Tuesday May 10 and expect there to be little to choose between the sides at Eastlands with a draw the most likely outcome.

Up next is a repeat of the Cup final against Stoke and a second City triumph over the Potters in as many weeks is envisaged here to leave them on the brink of fourth with just a final test at Bolton to come. We can see Mancini’s men picking up a point on the day at the Reebok Stadium to ensure fourth place is theirs and Champions League football secured.

So, by these predictions we calculate City will finish fourth on 70 points while Spurs will have to settle for fifth – five points behind on 65.

Well that’s how we see it panning out anyway.

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Arsenal to keep title race alive

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Bet on the Premier LeagueArsenal host Liverpool on Sunday hoping to keep their hopes of lifting the Premier League title (Arsenal 9/2 Premier League outright) alive.

The Gunners are seven points behind the Red Devils in the table but have game in hand and, crucially, United are yet to visit the Emirates Stadium.

A run of three successive draws looked to have stalled Arsenal’s title charge but Wenger knows if they can follow-up last weekend’s 3-1 win over Blackpool with victory over the Reds (Arsenal 8/11, draw 13/5, Liverpool 19/5) they can cut United’s lead to just four points.

It has been an eventful week for the Gunners with American businessman Stan Kroenke launching a full take-over of the club.

Wenger insisted though, following a meeting with Kroenke, that we will maintain full control over team affairs and continue his policy of recruiting and developing younger, cheaper players.

“We have a certain philosophy of football and we will continue to develop that and to play even better. We will continue to run the club like it has been done until now – that means live within our resources, produce our own resources and develop our football team,” said the Frenchman.

The Gunners have a good record against Kenny Dalglish’s men (Arsenal HT/FT 7/4), having lost only three of their past 19 encounters with the Reds, including none of the last seven.

They haven’t tasted defeat at home against the Merseysiders since Liverpool triumphed 1-0 (1-0 Liverpool correct score – 9-1) at Highbury in February 2000.

Robin van Persie (9/2 – first goalscorer) has hit 20 goals in his last 21 Premier League starts and is poised to make his 150th Premier League appearance for the Gunners.

Liverpool have a form forward player of their own though in £35million man Andy Carroll (15/2 – first goalscorer) who hit his first two goals for the Anfield club in their impressive 3-0 win over Manchester City on Monday night. He also struck the only goal in a 1-0 for his former club Newcastle at the Emirates back in November.

Liverpool are now well in the running for a Europa League place (Liverpool 1/4 top six finish) after a dramatic upturn in form under caretaker boss Kenny Dalglish and can close the gap on fifth placed Spurs to just two points with a win.

Prediction: home win @ 8/11
Value bet: Arsenal 2-1 @ 7/1

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Championship promotion race reaching boiling point

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Bet on the ChampionshipWith most teams in the Championship having just 10 games to go before the end of the season, who will win the race for promotion and be playing Premier League football next season?

Queens Park Rangers (1/12 to win promotion) are still leading the way as they have done for much of the season. Neil Warnock’s men are seven points clear of the playoffs and have the best goal difference in the league by some way.

It’s hard to see them throwing their position away and they should go on to lift the Championship trophy come the end of the season.

The race for the second automatic spot, however, appears less clear-cut as all the top clubs vying for it have slipped up recently.

Swansea (6/5 to win promotion) dropped two points on Tuesday night as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Watford at the Liberty Stadium as the Welsh side missed a chance to consolidate their position in the top two but they are still ahead of Norwich City on goal difference.

Norwich (9/4 to win promotion) managed to secure all three points in their tough away trip to the Walkers Stadium in a 3-2 victory over Leicester, who look like they are going to struggle to make the play-offs despite investment in the side and a fine recent record under Sven Goran Eriksson.

With striker Grant Holt continuing to find the back of the net for the Canaries and their never-say-die attitude, it looks like Norwich will push the Swans all the way for that second automatic spot.

Cardiff City (5/4 to win promotion) have hit a blip at a bad time in the season as the Bluebirds suffered their third consecutive defeat on Tuesday at the hands of struggling Crystal Palace.

After being comfortably clear of the play-off places just a couple of months ago, Cardiff will have to be careful that they don’t fall completely out of the top six before the end of the season.

Leeds United (7/2 to win promotion) suffered a setback to their promotion hopes when they were comprehensively beaten 3-0 by Swansea last month but the Whites bounced back and produced successive victories over Doncaster Rovers and Preston.

Leeds will be desperate to avoid the drama of the play-offs if they can, due to their poor record in them in previous attempts in the Championship and League One.

With the likes of Max Gradel, Robert Snodgrass and Luciano Becchio in good form, though, they remain lively outsiders to bag automatic promotion.

Nottingham Forest (2/1 to win promotion) will be kicking themselves they did not make a goal lead count against Sheffield United, as they lost 2-1 at Bramall Lane and Billy Davies’ side are now on the verge of dropping out of the top six with Burnley in a strong position with two games in hand.

Forest and Burnley will be battling out for that final play-off place with Reading, Hull and Leicester, at this stage anyway, off the pace in the race for that crucial sixth spot.

It is still not clear who will be playing against the likes of Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool next season but what is is that there will be plenty more drama, considering what is at stake, before the season is over.

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Race heats up for play-off places

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A resurgent Hull City welcome Burnley to the KC Stadium on Tuesday night in a clash between two sides gunning for Championship play-off places (Hull 11/8, draw 9/4, Burnley 9/5 – match betting).

The Yorkshire-Lancashire battle between seventh and eighth place should be an exciting contest between two sides desperate to get back into the Premier League.

Hull will be full of confidence going into this game off the back of a gutsy 1-0 victory over Nottingham Forest on Saturday.

Not many teams pick up away wins against Forest and Nigel Pearson’s side are pushing the top six clubs hard for the play-off places.

Burnley are in an excellent position and could leapfrog both Leeds United and Forest if they can win their two games in hand and other results go their way.

Both these teams are in good form but Hull might just edge this one in front of their home fans.

Norwich City travel to the Walkers Stadium to take on Leicester City in another big game in and around the playoff positions (Leicester 10/11, draw 12/5, Norwich 11/4 – match betting).

The Canaries were left frustrated at Carrow Road in their last outing, as they were held to a 1-1 draw against bottom of the table Preston.

Goal-machine Grant Holt admitted after the game that Preston were hard to break down because they put bodies behind the ball to battle out a crucial point in terms of their Championship survival.

The Foxes on the other hand will play a much more open game and will believe they can pick up all three points.

There should be plenty of goals in this game between two attacking sides but the Canaries could just get one over on the Foxes.

Sheffield United are having a torrid time in the Championship this season and are without a win in their last 14 games.

Manager Micky Adams is still looking for his first win with the South Yorkshire side but he might have to wait a bit longer, as they take on Forest at Bramall Lane on Tuesday (United 23/10, draw 23/10, Forest 11/10 – match betting).

Forest could go into the automatic positions if they can compound United’s misery and other results go for them and Billy Davies’ players will want to keep the pressure on QPR and Swansea at the top of the table.

With the type of form the Blades are in, it’s hard to see them winning this game and they may have to wait longer still for that elusive victory, with games against Watford and Leeds to come.

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The Championship promotion race

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QPR currently have a seven point lead at the top of the Championship and look as if they’re heading towards the promise land of the Premier League but the other promotion spots are very much up for grabs, with just 10 points separating second placed Nottingham Forest and Hull City, who are currently 12th (QPR 4/6 – Championship outright).

Forest (11/10 to be promoted) have been on a fantastic run and have not tasted defeat in the league since way back on November 29, when they slipped to a 1-0 defeat at Leicester.  Boss Billy Davies has a good pedigree in the division, having led Derby, Preston and Forest into the play-offs in recent years and the Scottish manager will be desperate to go one better than last season, where Forest were knocked out in the semi-finals by Blackpool.

Cardiff (6/4 promotion) have the considerable talents of Craig Bellamy, Michael Chopra and Peter Whittingham to call upon and at the start of the season many were tipping the beaten play-off finalists to mount a challenge for the title.  The Bluebirds started the campaign well, despite the disappointment of missing out on promotion, but have stuttered of late.  However, Cardiff did manage to secure a 1-0 win at the home of bitter rivals Swansea last time out and if they can rediscover their best form the Welsh side could well challenge for the title, they trail QPR by eight points at the moment but they have a game in hand (Cardiff 6/1 – Championship outright).

Swansea (3/1 promotion) occupy a play-off spot at present and have produced some impressive displays over the course of the season to date.  The Swans play an exciting, attacking brand of football and despite their derby disappointment last weekend should be able to secure a top six finish.  The Liberty Stadium side do not have the same financial backing as the likes of Cardiff and QPR but Swansea seem to have a great team spirit and work well as a unit, all the ingredients are there for the South Wales side to be this season’s Blackpool.

Leeds (10/3 promotion) and Norwich (5/2) were both playing in League One last season but the duo have settled into life in the Championship quickly and are both in the top six at this stage of the season.  In Grant Holt Norwich have a top class striker but he has struggled of late and if they are to continue their push for the second automatic spot the frontman will have to get back amongst the goals sooner rather than later, although he did grab his first goal in six games in the loss at Burnley last time out.

Leeds also have some decent players and could well hang onto their spot in the top six, but the Yorkshire side have a woeful record in the play-offs in recent seasons, both in the Championship and League One, and will probably have to finish second if they’re to go up this season.

Millwall (12/1 promotion), Leicester (4/1), Watford (9/1), Burnley (4/1), Reading (6/1) and Hull (12/1) are also involved in the battle to secure a play-off spot and they will all be confident they can pick up enough points between now and the end of the season to secure a top six spot.  Reading have been in fine form of late and were unlucky not to take all three points in their recent draw with Cardiff, while QPR inflicted a narrow 1-0 defeat on the Royals at the Madjeski Stadium last time out.  Hull have also been on an impressive run of late and of the chasing pack I would suggest Reading are the most likely side to break into the play-off spots, while at 12/1 the Tigers look good value considering they have lost just once in their last 15 league games.

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The Sack Race

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Newcastle, Liverpool and Blackburn have already got twitchy and replaced their managers this season – but who will be the next club to wield the axe in the Premier League?

As sure as night follows day, the survival chances of any football manager are about as precarious as Jordan, sorry, Katie Price’s latest husband, but factor in the millions of pounds washing around in the English top flight these days, well you get the drift.

Chris Hughton, ‘Big’ Sam Allardyce and Roy Hodgson have all been handed their P45s – with Alan Pardew, Steve Kean and ‘King’ Kenny Dalglish profiting from their downfalls – but they will not be the last this season – fact!

So who will be the next boss heading off to Dubai to lick his wounds? Well, I reckon it’s between Carlo Ancelotti and Roberto Martinez, with Mick McCarthy, Mark Hughes and Avram Grant also candidates for their own private ’squeaky bum’ time.

Carlo Ancelotti

Chelsea head honcho Roman Abramovich did not become one of the wealthiest men in the galaxy by being a charity case and even though the Italian scooped the double last season, he is still in deep trouble.

Captain John Terry has now come out and said results – one win in nine league games – are not good enough and it’s never a good sign when the former England captain goes on record like that.

Quite how Ancelotti has managed to hang on and not pay the price is a mystery – maybe it’s a question of brinkmanship to see who blinks first?

Anyway, Chelsea (3/10 – match betting) should win their next game which is against Blackburn (8/1) at Stamford Bridge, but will it buy him much more time?

Roberto Martinez

Wigan supremo Dave Whelan went on record last season when he appointed Martinez to assure the Spaniard he would not be sacked if he took Latics back into the Championship. And he didn’t have to pack the likeable 37-year-old back off to Catalonia following a 16th-placed finish.

This term Wigan got off to a terrible start by shipping 10 goals in their first two games which included a 4-0 defeat by new boys Blackpool on the opening day.

Latics started 2011 in the bottom three and while Whelan would not want to dispense with Martinez, is he really going to stomach more of the same between now and May?

Wigan (7/5 – match betting) face a six-pointer against Fulham (9/5) at the DW Stadium this weekend.

McCarthy, Hughes and Grant

These three must all fear being turned away at the gates of the training ground on a daily basis, but they probably don’t have much to fear.

McCarthy is not exactly everyone’s cup of tea (ask Roy Keane) but keeping Wolves up last season must count for something following promotion the season before?

Hughes is in the early stages of his job at Craven Cottage but they should have enough to stay up and continue rebuilding in the summer under ‘Sparky’.

And Grant would surely have gone before now – even given his Carling Cup run – if the Hammers could afford to pay off the remaining three-and-a-half years of the four-year deal he was handed a matter of months ago?

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Race on for January sales

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The January transfer window is nearly upon us and the Premier League title chasers (outright winner) could well splash out next month in a bid to bolster their chances of success, so here is a run through of the rumours that have been doing the rounds in recent weeks regarding the current top four.

Manchester United

United are the current pace setters in the Premier League and heading into today’s (Tuesday) fixtures the Old Trafford side have a two point advantage over nearest rivals Manchester City and Arsenal (Manchester United 5/6 – Premier League outright).

Boss Sir Alex Ferguson tends to do most of his business in the summer and the Old Trafford side are not expected to make any major moves in the New Year and it could be a very quiet window indeed for the United boss.

United striker Michael Owen has been linked with a January exit but Ferguson has rejected the speculation.

Ferguson has also been linked with a swoop for a new goalkeeper, with Edwin van der Sar set to call time on his career at the end of the campaign, but the United boss could be prepared to wait until the summer before signing a new custodian.

Arsenal

The Gunners victory over Chelsea put them right back in the mix for the title but boss Arsene Wenger has stated he will not make any major moves in January (Arsenal 18/5 – Premier League outright).

The Frenchman has tended to shy away from big name signings in recent seasons and although he has not ruled out strengthening his squad it seems certain Wenger will not spend a huge amount of money in January.

Striker Nicklas Bendtner has already dismissed speculation linking him with a move to Serie A side Lazio, while Wenger has been linked with numerous goalkeepers but like his United counterpart Ferguson he could wait until the end of the campaign (Arsenal travel to Wigan on Wednesday – match betting – Wigan 11/2, draw 3/1, Arsenal 8/15).

Manchester City

City look set to be the big spenders in January as far as the top four are concerned.  Strikers Emmanuel Adebayor, Roque Santa Cruz and Jo have hardly featured for the Eastlands side this season and the trio look set to depart next month, with Adebayor linked with Juventus and Santa Cruz linked with Lazio and Fulham, while Jo has been linked with Hamburg (Manchester City 8/1 – Premier League outright).

If the duo do leave boss Roberto Mancini has been linked with a host of replacements, with Wolfsburg star Edin Dzeko and Newcastle hitman Andy Carroll believed to be his top targets.

Wolfsburg are desperate to retain Dzeko and Carroll has a long contract at St James’ Park but City are almost certain to add to their attack in January, having relied on the goal scoring exploits of Carlos Tevez alone for the majority of the first half of the campaign.

Chelsea

Boss Carlo Ancelotti looks to be under intense pressure at Stamford Bridge after seeing his side fall six points off the pace in the title race following their loss at Arsenal on Monday (Chelsea 19/5 – Premier League outright).

Chelsea did have a five-point lead at one point this season and they have not managed to win a league game since November 10 – with Ancelotti well aware his future now hangs in the balance.

It remains to be seen if the Italian will remain in charge at Stamford Bridge but if he does he has already admitted he has no plans to strengthen in the New Year and will rely on players returning from injury to boost his squad.

However, Ancelotti did admit he could sign a new defender if Alex does not recover by the end of January following a knee operation.  The former AC Milan boss also admitted he will try and sign an English player if he has to delve into the January market and Bolton?s Gary Cahill and Everton star Phil Jagielka are thought to be his top targets ahead of the January transfer window (Chelsea host Bolton on Wednesday – match betting – Chelsea 1/4, draw 9/2, Bolton 11/1).

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Rooney expects ‘tougher than ever’ race

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Wayne RooneyWayne Rooney believes this season will be the toughest Premier League title (Man Utd 12/5 in Outright market) to win, with the English top flight becoming a more level playing field.

The Manchester United frontman has won three titles during his six years at Old Trafford and admits it gets harder and harder to lift the trophy.

Rooney (5/1 to be 2010-11 Premier League top scorer) thinks it will be harder than ever to take the crown back from Chelsea this season, having missed out to the Londoners by one point last term.

The England international insisted: “Since I signed for United I think the Premier League has got progressively harder to win. I know it’s a cliché, but there are no easy games in the Premier League.”

United are going in search of a 19th top flight title, which would see them overtake near rivals Liverpool, but Rooney is under no illusions as to how hard that will be.

He added:  “The 2009/10 season was certainly the most competitive I’ve played in. Nowadays it’s hard to leave players out because every game is competitive and difficult.”

The former Everton man got his first run-out of pre-season on Wednesday night, as United demolished an Airtricity League of Ireland select team 7-1 in Dublin.

Rooney started the game up front alongside Michael Owen, playing 45 minutes but failing to get his name on the scoresheet.

Sir Alex Ferguson was happy though with Rooney’s display but admits that the striker needs to work on his fitness ahead of the new season.

Fergie stated: “He’s only been training for six days, but 45 minutes was fine for him. Six days training is not enough for a player to compete in big competitions.”

Park Ji-Sung bagged two goals for last season’s Premier League runners-up, before the fit-again Owen was on hand to double United’s advantage before half-time.

Rooney and Owen were replaced by summer signing Javier Hernandez and Dimitar Berbatov (11/2 to be Man Utd 2010-11 Top Scorer) at the break, with five more goals scored in the second half.

Korean star Park grabbed a second with Hernandez, Antonio Valencia, Jonny Evans and Nani also on target.

Ferguson says Michael Carrick will miss Sunday’s Community Shield (Chelsea 11/8, Draw 11/5, Man Utd 15/8 – Match Betting) having picked up an ankle injury on Wednesday night.

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New Zealand’s Brown faces race against time

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New Zealand manager Ricki HerbertNew Zealand (66/1 to win Group F) midfielder Tim Brown will not find out if he can play in the World Cup until the day before the tournament starts.

Brown said at a press conference that he will make the decision about whether he is fit enough to play, following a recovery period for his fractured shoulder that was operated on this week.

“I think on June 10th they’re going to make a decision. Until then, I don’t know, I’m just going to work as hard as I can on rehab,” said Brown.

“It’ll be a combination of both [Brown's and doctors' evaluations], it’s going to be a moment of real honesty from me, giving my best advice and making the best decision. We’ll have a chat about it.

“The one thing from my point of view is when I make that decision I’ll make the right one. And that’s not going to be one for me, it’s one for the team.

“I do believe if I’m fit I can contribute, and if I’m fit I can help them. If not, I won’t. I just don’t think it’s fair. We’ve worked hard to build a culture of real honesty and togetherness and if I go over there and I’m not right I think I do a bit of disservice to my mates and to the shirt.”

The Wellington Phoenix man says even if he is not available to the All Whites, it will not be a terminal blow to their chances. (New Zealand 12/1 to qualify from Group F)

“To be perfectly honest I’m not critical to the team, it’s not a Dan Carter or a Ryan Nelsen situation,” he said.

“I think I’ve got stuff to offer, a lot to offer, but I’ll only go if I feel I can offer 100 percent. To go and offer 80 percent or 75 percent, I just don’t think it’s the right thing to do.”

The surgery saw doctors insert three screws into his fractured bone, but the recovery is going as well as possible, says Brown, who hopes to be back in the gym over the weekend.

He said: “The surgery went, by all accounts, amazingly well, which has given me a big, big chance. All the muscles and ligaments are intact.”

The 29-year-old suffered a fractured right shoulder during the All White’s 2-1 friendly defeat to Australia (125/1 to win World Cup 2010) in Melbourne on Monday.

Brown was rated a “50-50″ chance before the operation and surgeon Stu Walsh offered a positive prognosis, albeit without ensuring his fitness for South Africa, after revealing Thursday’s operation had gone well.

“It is still too early to comment on his chances of being available for the World Cup at this stage,” Walsh said.

“That will depend on how quickly he heals and how well he progresses through rehabilitation. The usual recovery time for this type of injury is three to six weeks, depending on the individual, and it can occasionally be much longer.

“However, Tim is a strong and fit athlete, who is very motivated and looks after himself well, which will benefit his recovery.

“We are therefore optimistic about the prognosis.”

Coach Ricki Herbert feels the squad is well prepared now they have arrived in their pre-World Cup base, and said: “Psychologically we’re really in that World Cup mode now.

“We’ve got teams like England and Japan preparing [in Austria] so there’s a real sense that we’re back on the world stage again.”

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