Real Madrid vs Deportivo

The legendary player returning to take charge of a club he was famous at. Madrid love scoring at home to Depor, so I’m saying a Real win , Bale and Ronaldo to continue their form with goals apiece. You never know with Depor. Lucas Perez is their key, if he shows up, he’ll score at anytime and Depor might shut down Zidane’s party.

• Deportivo are averaging one point per game away from home, the same as their opponents;
• Cristiano Ronaldo has contributed to nearly 70% of Madrid’s goals so far this season;

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Real Sociedad vs Valencia

Gary Neville might have two wins under his belt, but neither of those have been in the league. He could pick it up this week at Sociedad. The ‘Royals’ are missing their star player Imanol Agirretxe for this game, and they haven’t been able to pick up the goalscoring slack. A score draw is likely, but maybe a Valencia win at

Barcelona vs Granada

The champions came out on top of that derby against Espanyol, and they will easily do so against Granada this weekend. Any of the three magistas up front should score, but Neymar will open the scoring at . For the opposition, Penaranda is the best bet to get a consolation at anytime. Barca hold a game in hand over the leaders Atleti, and a routine home win is what’s happening here

• Barca can go top if Atleti drop points away to Celta;
• Both teams have scored in 67% of Granada’s games – the highest ratio in La Liga;

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Watch the video below:

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Villarreal v Barcelona, Sunday, 3pm

• Don’t back 0-0. There has been 32 goals in the last 10 meetings
• Carlos Clos Gómez has never overseen a Barca defeat, but Villarreal have only won 10 from 18 and have had five men sent off
• Neymar and Suarez have scored 17 of the 20 goals since Messi was injured

Bumpers Bet: Neymar or Suarez anytime and a home win @ 10/11

Sevilla v Real Madrid, Sunday, 19:30

• A fighting score draw
• Sevilla to rally and Jose Antonio Reyes to score against his former club
• Luka Modric to equalize

Bumpers Bet: Reyes to score first and a 1-1 draw @ 50/1

Eibar v Getafe, Saturday, 19:30

• Back the Basques for a home win
• Borja Baston to score first

Bumpers Bet: Home win and Borja Baston to score first @ 20/1

Athletic v Espanyol, Sunday, 11:00

• Comfortable home win
• Aduriz to open the scoring

Bumpers Bet: Home win and Aduriz to score first @ 16/1

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Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid:

• Ronaldo has only scored one hat-trick against Atletico.
• He has scored the first goal three times.
• Atletico have won six times since Simone took over, including four last season.

Sevilla v Barcelona:

• Barcelona are missing Iniesta, Messi and Bravo. Sevilla are missing Llorente, Vitolo and Pareja. 
• There has been 24 goals in the last four meeting with Neymar, Banega and Gameiro all getting two.
• Barcelona have scored five goals twice in the last four games.

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It’s all here in my brand new vlog for Paddy Power.

Watch the brilliant @bumpergraham munch you through the best of La Liga this weekend with his banker bets… https://t.co/s5SHumashf

— Paddy Power (@paddypower) September 25, 2015

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I hear that Atlético Madrid are your most-backed La Liga team to win the title.

So you pretty much didn’t care if the Istanbul inhabitants hoisted their ‘Welcome To Hell’ banners when Diego Simeone’s team reached the Galatasaray stadium on Wednesday.

That was Europe. Pah!

But you’d obviously prefer it if Eibar’s inhabitants, players and hotel owners were all ‘hippy peace and love’  and ‘San Fransisco flowers in your hair’ when Atleti go to the Ipurúa stadium on Saturday night [Sky Sports 19.30]

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The easier Atleti pocket three points the happier you’re gonna feel. Right?

Three points? Quite possibly.

Peace and love? Ain’t gonna happen baby.

Atleti may be kindly regarded by those with rebel sentiments but they are still a ‘Madrid‘ team travelling to the Basque country.

Up there you don’t just get another notch on the bed post for sticking it to any team from the Spanish capital – you get a diamond-encrusted king-sized, four poster with a nubile young chambermaid awaiting your orders. Ribena or Rioja I mean.

Eibar’s right sided midfielder Keko began at Atleti and knows what’s awaiting his former club.

“With coach Mendilibar every one of us knows there’s a single obligation if we want to be picked. “We have to snarl and bite and run like dogs of war. “The day any of us wants the ball to feet or thinks we can play luxury football they’ll be dropped and we’ll lose”

Right now, the world seems upside down.

Atleti, league winners in 2014, Champions League finalists that same month and trophy- winners every single season since 2009/10 are sixth to Eibar’s fifth.

Unlike Cholo Simeone’s team the Basques are unbeaten and Eibar also have the better goal difference.

But since Eibar repaired their pitch, which was like the Somme,  good teams go there, feel unstressed in front of what is [since a couple of weeks ago] a 6,000 maximum crowd and knock the ball about.

Meaning Eibar have a task on their hands.

Antoine Griezmann remains a right good guy to back for both first goal and any-time. Jackson Martinez, too, merits some any-time action.

Buzzing with form given freedom to roam across the front line Griezmann got two in Istanbul in midweek – both off his left foot. [As have 9 of the Frenchman’s last 11 goals been. Hint hint]

Eibar are a cracking story, represent great values – but have their work cut out.

Barça, now here’s a shock, profile as a home banker [19.30 Sunday, Sky Sports]

They host Levante, popularly known as the Frogs, who are knee-deep in trouble here.

Geddit? Knee-deep, knee-deep. Frog noises. Okay, never mind.

The Spanish and European champions were much more vulnerable to shocks at home than away last season.

Not only did they lose to Celta and Málaga at the Camp Nou they lost to nil, too [0-1 and 0-1]

Luis Enrique’s team still start without Claudio Bravo, Dani Alves, Gerard Piqué and Rafinha and come off the back of consecutive tiring, testing away matches in Madrid and Rome.

But that should be a question of the win margin, not whether Barcelona triumph.

Every so often the Catalans find this lot a bit indigestible and the margin ends in a single goal.

Far more often it’s a walloping.

Of the last five Levante visits to the Camp Nou Barcelona have scored five twice, seven once – but the others have been 1-0 and 2-1.

Here’s a stat to help you make your decision.

In their seven competitive matches so far Barça have hit the woodwork SEVEN times.

An indication of sloppiness/bad luck? Or that they are just about to punch someone’s lights out goal-wise?

The ‘villains’ have been Rafinha, Pedro, Piqué, Sergi Roberto, Mascherano, Luis Suárez and Messi.

Perm between the Argentinian, Neymar and Suárez for first goal – but I’ve a slight preference for Suárez this time out because he’s bursting with form and confidence while both Neymar and Messi gave evidence, in Rome, that jet lag from the international break still wasn’t out of their systems.

Madrid host Granada early on Saturday [15:00 kick off UK time] and they will win. By 3+.

James Rodríguez, Gareth Bale, Sergio Ramos and Danilo all out injured isn’t a happy stat if you fancy Madrid to rack up five or six goals.

But back Rafa’s boys to win, back them by three or more and back Ronaldo for everything short of the Labour leadership.

Eight goals in his last two games is nothing. Last season he smacked 20 in eleven Liga outings and just five months ago he pumped Granada for five in a 9-1 win in this fixture.

Griezmann, Jackson, Suárez, Messi, Ronaldo for first goalscorer or any time scorer; left footed goal from Griezmann; one goal win for Atleti; Barça and Madrid to win by over two and over three respectively. You’re welcome.

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How Barcelona, and in particular Luis Enrique, view this game can be judged by the squad. Córdoba are relegated, having scored only 21 goals in their 34 games thus far. While the vast majority of people have been talking about Spain’s neck-and-neck run-in for the title this has been considered a ‘gimme’. Turn up, look at the ball-to-flag distance and collect the three points without having to putt.

Not Lucho. He sees a dogged rival in Real Madrid. He expects them to win at Sevilla. He sees a Córdoba free of any responsibility in this game, free to run till they drop and take risks if they choose too. He sees a Córdoba incapable of winning often but capable of only single goal defeats here to Valencia, Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid.

Thus despite the midweek visit of Bayern Munich to the Camp Nou, despite the tantalizing prospect of reaching the Champions League final in his first season the Asturian coach has named every one of his important first team players – not choosing to rest or protect one of them. Thus he chooses from: Ter Stegen, C. Bravo, Piqué, Rakitic, Busquets, Xavi, Pedro, Iniesta, Suárez, Messi, Neymar, Rafinha, Mascherano, Bartra, Alba Adriano, Alves Mathieu.

There’s a decent likelihood that Messi, Suárez and Neymar start up front although only a banker-bet that two of them do so. Luis Enrique argued on Friday:

“Taking the foot off the pedal now would be like the marathon runner who gets to 24 miles with a record time but then starts to walk. Until we achieve the objectives there’s no relaxing and the objectives are to win the trophies. The league is in play at Córdoba”

It’s all about attitude. If his players repeat that of their coach they’ll win. But might it be a struggle? Feasible. The instinct to save just a little for a midweek Champions League match is often wholly subconscious.
Will Barcelona’s players conquer it? The guide so far this season says: ‘Yes’.
Much is being made of the fact that this is Barcelona’s first Liga visit to Córdoba since an infamous 1-0 defeat, held to have been scandalously reffed, in 1972 – a defeat which cost them the title.

I’m fairly sure 43 year old revenge won’t be a motif here, especially given the Cup tie here in 2012 [when Tito Vilanova put out a very strong side and only won 2-0 against the then Second Division side]
Córdoba coach Jose Antonio Romero reckons: “Anything can happen in a one-off game and we can’t take it as the starting idea that we’ll simply lose by 5-0. “I’ve beaten Barcelona in the Juvenil leagues and this is a dream come true”.

If his dream does come true then mark it as one of the biggest shocks in living memory. That would need Ghilas, Fede, Florin or Bebe to score.
Other than that bank on Suárez, Messi, Rakitic or Piqué to see Barcelona through, probably by two.

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Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao – Saturday, 5pm

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The only way to start to eye this up is to state that the confirmed absence of Aritz Aduriz doesn’t mean it’s impossible for Athletic to win at the Calderón – just far, far, far, far, far less likely.

Aduriz, club-trotter, has loved being home after careers at Valencia, Mallorca and Valladolid scoring at much closer to one ever other game compared to one in three the rest of his career.

This season he’s not only been Athletic’s leading scorer by far, he’s a true leader – and appears to be improving technically with every year over thirty which passes.

Ernesto Valverde, shorn of his best player, takes to the Spanish capital: Iraizoz, Toquero, Aurtenetxe, Laporte, San José, Iturraspe, Kike Sola, De Marcos, Bustinza, Iago Herrerín, Iraola, X.Etxeita, Mikel Rico, Gurpegi, Viguera, Guillermo, Unai López, Williams

Hidden in there is the truly forgotten man of Basque football, Gaizka Toquero who scored both in a 0-2 win the last time the Basques took three points at Atleti – back in 2011. I can’t confirm rumours that Valverde asked Matt Le Tissier to stay and play this weekend when he collected his ‘One Club Man’ award at the San Mames at the Basque derby this week.

Simeone can choose from Oblak, Moyá; Juanfran, Miranda, Giménez, Godín, Siqueira, Gámez; Arda, Raúl García, Tiago, Mario Suárez, Gabi, Saúl, Koke; Mandzukic, Raúl Jiménez, Fernando Torres and Griezmann.
Atleti have shown the pain of elimination from the Champions League with some stilted football – but they’ve kept on winning. Look for them to do that again via Griezmann, Mandzukic or Raul García. Should be a cracker, intense, no quarter asked or given – worth watching as well as having a punt on.

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Sevilla v Real Madrid – Saturday, 7pm

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The game of the weekend, potentially even of the season. And these meetings are complete roller-coasters.
Recent seasons have seen regular Sevilla home wins [seven of them since 2003] – this is a place where Real Madrid need to fear going. Yet los Blancos have also recorded two consecutive 2-6 Madrid wins when they made Los Rojiblancos look like cardboard cutouts – in May and December 2011. These are explosive, there are often red cards, the Nervion produces a volcanic atmosphere and it’s survival of the fittest. This time there are so many additional angles it’s hard to know where to begin.

Obviously the foremost is the fact that by kick-off Barcelona may well have increased their lead to five points.
IF they haven’t, IF they don’t dispatch Córdoba, then a win here would put Madrid top and completely in charge of their own destiny. Match Barça’s points from then on and it would be Madrid’s title.

Should Barça have won then this match reverts to being a referendum on whether Madrid have the ‘cojones’ to cling on at the top and force Barcelona to win at the Calderón in a couple of weeks time. Just for the record Madrid led 0-1 here last year and then lost 2-1 to two Carlos Bacca goals – the second of which was created by an utter peach of an assist from Ivan Rakitic who’s now at Barcelona.
Ironic. [NB it’s the same referee this weekend as then]

The other key thing which hangs on this match is that Valencia dropped two points in midweek at Rayo meaning that they and Sevilla are tied for the fourth Champions League place – separated only by Valencia’s favourable head-to-head. Unai Emery’s team need to keep on winning – starting here. A massive Uefa cash-pot is at stake.
It’s fifteen months and since they lost at home and their 41 points at the Sánchez Pizjuán is their second best ever – six off the all time record set in 2006. Two more points and they’ll have reached their highest ever Primera points total.

To the game. Sevilla kept Trémoulinas, Reyes, Mbia and Bacca clear of a booking at Eibar so all are free to play with Vitolo the only major injury doubt. Ancelotti has Bale back but does he displace Chicharito – all goals and assists in the last few weeks? [Bale on the bench more likely]

It’s tempting to call this a Bacca v Ronaldo shoot-out. The Colombian’s in his best ever season for goals and assists and won this fixture with a brace. Ronaldo has just one in five but his record against Sevilla…. 18 in 12 matches and seventeen of those in the last eight.

Madrid will probably use Ramos in midfield, he loves a headed goal, Sevilla love to nod a couple in themselves and Iker Casillas doesn’t thrive on dealing with an aerial assault. No sitting on the fence – not one of the three available results here would be a surprise, home win, away win, draw.

Perm from Ronaldo, Chicharito, Ramos or Mbia, Bacca, Iborra for your ‘anytime’ goals.
Look for goals galore, best bet a score draw but my guess is that Madrid, just, have the will and the way to keep their title challenge alive.

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Valencia v Eibar – Sunday, 8pm

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Don’t be fooled by the ‘big guys good at home, little guys weak on the road’ narrative here – there’s masses resting on this one. The little Basque team didn’t win hearts and minds earlier this season because they were cute and charming. Not a bit of it.

They played smart, organised football and were worth watching. They are still attempting to play quite nice football but like a first time Iron Man competitor nearing the tape most of their involuntary muscles are threatening to give way. Eibar haven’t won in 16 matches, have taken a single point on the road since mid January.

But the fact remains that they are alive in either a three, or perhaps four, team mini league fighting relegation. It’s between Depor, Almería, Eibar and possibly Levante. The Mestalla looks an unlikely place to unleash the beast inside – but they’ve nothing to lose.Eibar are like the guy in the old joke who takes a bath once a year every year whether he needs it or not.

The’ve scored five times in their last fifteen – a goal every three matches whether they need it or not.
Gaizka Garitano, who’s spent much of the week in the spotlight thanks to walking out of a press conference at Almería due to the moronic behaviour of a couple of local journos, won’t be pleased that Mikel Arruabarrena, probably his most reliable striker, is suspended.

The stress on Valencia to thump the visitors and assure themselves of three points grew exponentially after Los Che dropped two points at Rayo and let Sevilla right back into the race for fourth place.
Nuno Espirito Santo and his guys have been a real breath of fresh air in this league but their continuity depends on reaching the Champions League.

“The result at Rayo wasn’t what we wanted but playing that kind of football makes me sure we’ll win the remaining four matches and I’m not giving up on the fight to finish third”

is Nuno’s message.

Dani Parejo lost us bucks by missing his penalty at the Camp Nou the other week but keeps repaying faith with, by far, his best scoring season ever. Another in midweek. He, Paco Alcácer and Feghouli are all worth consideration – as is the feasibility of Valencia winning by two clear goals. One of these days, I hope, Eibar will convert neat, adventurous play into a win – but at the Mestalla? Doesn’t look likely.

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Espanyol and Barca to draw, Atletico and Real Madrid to win – 9/1

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Right, so it’s a bit neck-and-neck at the top of La Liga just at the moment and we’ve six games left.
The top two might meet in the Champions League Final and they don’t particularly like each other.
It’s kinda tense.

Which makes Barcelona’s stroll across the city to Espanyol not exactly a … stroll. There’s a Spain Oddity, which might appeal to David Bowie, whereby if two teams finish on identical points the first criterion via which to separate them is – head-to-head. It becomes a little like a Cup tie. ‘Which team won more of the Liga meetings between the two and if it has been a win apiece then what’s the goal aggregate?’

Thus it is that if Barcelona should drop two points between now and the end of the season and Madrid win all their games they’ll finish tied on 94 points. The reason that Madrid would win the title in that scenario is that the first Clásico ended 3-1 to Carlo Ancelotti’s side while Barça won the second 2-1 – ergo Madrid win the title on a 4-3 aggregate over their nearest rivals.

I think it’s a cool system.

So what Madridistas are doing this weekend is sending positive vibes to the only other set of fans who dislike the Blaugrana just as much as they do – those at Espanyol. Just as a matter of interest, the last time Spain’s Primera Division was settled on the head-to-head rule was as recently as 2007 – Madrid winning thanks to a victory and a draw in the two Clásicos.

Espanyol fans will be dreaming, happily of their part in that when on the penultimate day, after Leo Messi had put Barcelona ahead with a Maradona-style ‘it was my head ref honest!’ goal via his hand, they equalized in the last minute and effectively cost Frank Rijkaard’s side the title.

It’s not identical this weekend because the Catalan derby is being played in Cornella, not at the Camp Nou. But there’s a hint of … ‘could we screw them up again?’ The hard fact for the league leaders is that while they’ve only lost three times in the last 24 away Catalan derbies [and since the Power8 stadium was inaugurated in 2009 they’ve three wins and two draws] not even a draw is guaranteed to keep them top.

In fact it’s feasible that dropping points here could cost Luis Enrique’s men the treble. Feasible at least.
So, how to call it?

In Barcelona’s favour – attitude, determination not to cede the title to Madrid, determination not to trip up here of all places, a good winning run, Suárez and Neymar on good goal form.

A photo posted by FC Barcelona (@fcbarcelona) on Apr 15, 2015 at 1:46pm PDT

Against them – the fact that they aren’t putting in 90 minute performances too regularly right now. A draw at Sevilla thanks to a major second half drop off, a thrashing of PSG in the making at 2-0 up by half time and in total charge surrendered because they drop into cruise-control for the rest of the match. Espanyol – their two great positives are ex Madrid keeper Kiko Casilla and ex Barça striker Sergio García.

Casilla says: “When it comes to this derby it doesn’t matter the size of your budget or your salary bill – it’s us v them and they aren’t the only ones with a say in who wins the league”. Fightin’ talk.

Los Periquitos have only conceded four times in eight matches and a draw’s not impossible here. Barcelona, on form, will win and stay top – Suárez and Piqué profile as possible scorers. Neymar? One in seven in La Liga, four in four all comps. But Espanyol not to be discounted – a 0-0, a 1-1 and a 1-0 are three of the last five results in this fixture. Barça have every important player available, Espanyol bring back Salva Sevilla and Juan Fuentes while Víctor Sánchez is suspended against his old team and Felipe Mattioni injured.

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Atletico Madrid v Elche – Saturday, 5pm

Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile There were more good words than good play from Atleti in midweek when they lost the Madrid derby and exited the Champions League. Cholo Simeone refused to blame the referee for Arda’s red card, all the players who spoke mentioned departing the competition with pride, that they’d be back soon and more determined than ever. There was a ‘we’ve not let anybody down vibe’. Now we’ll see whether the painted smiles masked broken hearts. This is when the reigning champions need to prove that they gave their utmost against Madrid, that they left beaten but unbowed and that they are capable of not carrying any psychological after-effects into this match. Atleti’s four point lead over Valencia, guaranteeing them Champions League revenue again next season is utterly vital for this club and you can expect them to fight like tigers to protect it. You can expect the fans to show defiance by turning up and howling their support for Los Rojiblancos. But was there any damage done between Cholo and Griezmann when the in-form youngster was bizarrely removed from the game in midweek? Otherwise he should have goal solutions …. and it’s time Mandzukic, Torres and Raúl García came to the party again in that respect. Elche? Only two teams have scored fewer than them, only two have scored more than them … so how they hell are they within a win and a draw of staying up? Because they lose to the big guns and neatly pick off the weaklings around them – Cordoba, Levante, Almeria, Eibar. Only if Atleti are carrying a big hangover from losing to Madrid is this not a two goal win for the champions. Gabi and Mario Mandzukic, are back with respect to the Depor game – only Mario Suárez, Ansaldi and Cani are dropped. Get on Graham’s tips: Desktop | Mobile

Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano – Sunday, 6pm

Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile Last week I suggested the big question was: ‘when will Sevilla’s huge European exertions cost them a ‘hangover’ in La Liga?’ the only sad thing being that I didn’t say: right here! This’ll be a 1-1 draw! Different story here you’d imagine. Although the Europa League holders had to travel to and from St Petersburg this week and that doesn’t come without an impact on freshness of mind or physical tiredness the buzz of having eliminated Zenit, the really top quality performance in Russia and the fact that they are at home should be a positive cocktail of advantages.

.@DenisSuarez36: “Mi trabajo se ve recompensado hoy” http://t.co/iXro39SPpk #vamosmisevilla #UEL pic.twitter.com/dFSUw1Qt7D

— Sevilla Fútbol Club (@SevillaFC) April 16, 2015

Remember – Sevilla are 24 home games without defeat in over a year, they have a deep squad, they are desperately trying to get a finger-hold on fourth place and they’ve beaten Rayo 5-2, 2-1 and 4-1 the last three meetings.
Indeed while Paco Jemez’s side is fun to watch and has massively over-performed to be so high up La Liga they’ve still lost six of their last seven away matches and twice conceded six goal defeats in doing so.

Beto had a ‘mare for Sevilla and Sergio Rico should return, Pareja is out for months with ligament damage but Iborra, Reyes, Denis Suárez and Gameiro are all available to add freshness to Unai Emery’s athletic, hard running team. Both teams to score, Bacca, Vitolo, Gameiro all looking backable for the Europa League holders.

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Celta Vigo v Real Madrid – Sunday, 8pm

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Of course, even if the underdogs win the Catalan derby it’s never straightforward at the top of La Liga. In theory, Barcelona could suffer the embarrassment of dropping points to a cock-a-hoop Espanyol .. but then be rescued by the team which Luis Enrique made.

Madrid, fresh from their agonizing and tiring derby on Wednesday via which they sneaked past Atlético and into the Champions League semi final must visit the Balaidos Stadium in Vigo where they never get a pleasant welcome and where, last year, they lost. In fact it’s just short of a year since Los Blancos formally kissed goodbye to the title in that 2-0 defeat to Luis Enrique’s mob – both goals scored by Charles.

It was a Madrid team shorn of Ronaldo, Benzema, Carvajal, Pepe and which needed to put Raúl de Tomas, Burgui and Willian José on the bench. They’ve all gone on to great things of course …. hold on. No. And, symmetrically, this huge test of nerve and desire comes when Ancelotti will be without Benzema, Bale and Modric for sure. Marcelo returns and, just as with Barcelona in their match, if Madrid play near their top they can certainly win.

But it may influence how you punt to know that before last season the last time Celta beat Madrid at the Balaídos in La Liga was 2001. [Celta did win 2-1 in La Copa back in 2012]

In between there were six straight Madrid wins – no draws – but five of those wins were by a single goal. Three 1-2’s and two 0-1’s. Almost without exception it’s a hostile, characterful place with a fishing/industrial background and a blue-collar attitude to match the Celta shirts.

Complacency is usually punished. Nolito, as always, is Celta’s best and most threatening player although Larrivey may profit from the aerial ball into the box. That said while Santi Mina’s four goals this season all came against Rayo he’s a quick-footed talent whose reputation would soar if he scored here.

Madrid by a goal would be the percentage bet but go figure for yourselves what the impact of tiredness, tension and injury absences might do.

James Rodríguez is the shining light right now – not only talented and fully integrated but consistently behaving like a team leader. His link up play with Ronaldo and Chicharito make Madrid very tempting here. There’s enough to suggest that both teams score but that Madrid out-gun the light blues.

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Espanyol and Barca to draw, Atletico and Real Madrid to win – 9/1

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At the Camp Nou, just over a year ago Valencia stuck their leg out and Barcelona tripped flat on their face.

Effectively it was the defeat which cost Barça the title.

A win would have seen them pipping Atleti to win the league on goals scored.

Barça led 1-0, they pulled back to 2-2 but ended up losing at home to Valencia for the first time since Luis Enrique played against them in autumn 2003.

In fact Los Che’s previous six visits had all been defeats and they’d conceded a whopping 21 goals.

Paco Alcácer scored the winner that day and it may be worth noting that he has 3 in his last 5 since returning from injury and 12 for club and country this season.

Both Celta Vigo and Málaga have managed 0-1 wins at Camp Nou in the last few months – mainly by playing a terrific, but exhausting, pressing game which capitalises on one of those rare days when not only do Luis Enrique’s team make a single crucial mistake in defence but, somehow, look nervy and imprecise in front of goal.

So, if you fancy Valencia, how to calibrate your chances?

Last week in Sevilla Barcelona committed two pretty horrible mistakes, Claudio Bravo and Gerard Piqué ending up with fingerprints on the crimes, to toss away a 2-0 lead.

But in Paris on Wednesday, despite regularly gifting the ball to PSG, Barcelona finished devastatingly well.
It does feel like there’s been a drop in concentration in using the ball – perhaps Valencia will have their scoring chances.

FYI: Leo Messi has played Valencia twenty times scoring fifteen goals [nine of them at the Camp Nou]. However he’s only actually hit the net in eight of those twenty matches – ie less than half the time.

His goals come in clutches, sometimes threes and fours. Thus, if he scores and you’re ‘in-play’ you may fancy backing him to do so again?

Diego Alves is the best goalkeeper in @LaLiga. Check out his impressive numbers so far: http://t.co/pynqe6EYcj pic.twitter.com/mWDgHVrCpV

— Valencia CF (@valenciacf_en) April 16, 2015

FYI[ii]: Diego Alves has always loved testing himself against Barcelona. Not only was he super in Barcelona’s 90th minute away win earlier this season [Sergio Busquets] he has often played absolutely unbelievably at the Camp Nou. Is he good enough to thwart Messi, Suárez and Neymar??

FYI[iii] Kick off times really shouldn’t be important in a grown-up world but, hey, astrologists still make a damn fine living from making things up in the newspapers so the world’s not perfect. Ergo, the last time Barcelona lost at home it was a Saturday and the kick off time was 4pm Spanish.

Just like this….. Again, if you are on this match ‘in-play’ don’t be fooled into believing that if it’s a draw with just a couple of minutes left, and with a return Champions League quarter final coming up on Tuesday, that Barcelona will ‘settle’.

They only have a two point lead over Madrid and nothing, nothing at all, other than a win here will serve if they are going to win the title.

Valencia choose from: Diego Alves, Yoel, Cancelo, Barragán, Mustafi, Otamendi, Vezo, Orbán, Gayà, Javi Fuego, Felipe Augusto, Parejo, André Gomes, Feghouli, Rodrigo, De Paul, Negredo and Alcácer.

Neymar is back on goal form, Parejo’s worth a small investment, Alcácer too. Major pressure on the league leaders. None of the three results would be a shock but … perhaps Barcelona to demonstrate how much they want this title?

Hunter’s Tip: Both teams to score and Barcelona to win at 7/5 

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Deportivo v Atlético, Saturday 5pm

It’s a central theme of Atlético’s title-defence season – key players missing because of suspension.

Not disastrous here, only Gabi is out, but he’ll be followed by fellow midfielder Mario Suárez on Wednesday against Real Madrid. All of which means that a pretty remarkable story should keep growing.

Tiago said his goodbyes to fans and team mates after the Champions League final having failed to renew his contract with Atleti – a deal with Chelsea was as good as signed. But the Portuguese never put pen to paper, financial terms and his fear about how much playing time he’d get brought things to a grinding halt.

His agent got back in touch with Atleti and Diego Simeone insisted to the men in grey suits that he be re-hired.

#LaLiga // LATEST: Atlético Madrid 2-0 Getafe // Raul Jiménez assists Tiago who heads in from close range for #Atleti pic.twitter.com/F3GdtmGF7W — TalkingTikiTaka (@talkingtikitaka) March 21, 2015

Nice call Cholo. The Portuguese should start against Depor, he’s played 25 games in la Liga this season and, with five, is third top scorer for the reigning champions in their league defence.

It’s also his best goal total for eight years.

It may guide you that in six of the last seven Depor v Atleti fixtures at the Riazor there’s only been a single goal victory margin, or no goals at all.

Atleti choose from:
Moyá, Oblak, Godín, Siqueira, Gámez, Ansaldi, Juanfran, Miranda, Giménez, Tiago, Koke, Raúl García, Arda, Saúl, Cani, Griezmann, Raúl Jiménez and Fernando Torres.

No Mandzukic, no Mario, no Gabi – training suggests a likely XI of Oblak; Juanfran, Giménez, Godín, Gámez; Tiago; Raúl García, Koke, Saúl, Arda; Griezmann

New coach Victor Sánchez brings back Luisinho and Juan Domínguez but Helder Postiga’s still out.

Victor chooses from:
Lux, Manuel Pablo, Álex Bergantiños, José Rodríguez, Lucas Pérez, Medunjanin, Juan Domínguez, Juanfran, Sidnei, Fabricio, Cuenca, Laure, Luisinho, Toché, Cavaleiro, Oriol Riera, Lopo and Fariña.

Hard and hostile for Atleti here – might they drop two points in a score draw? Not an outlandish idea I’d say.

Hunter’s Tip: Both teams to score and the match to finish as a draw at 7/2

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Real Madrid v Málaga, Saturday 7pm

The Málaga brand of football is pretty much like what they used to say about Guinness – sound as a pound on home territory, doesn’t travel well.

How Málaga need a widget.

In fact the this mob have proved the old Robert Louis Stevenson thing about it being ‘better to travel hopefully than to arrive’

In 32 visits to Real Madrid’s ground their happy northward journey has ended, embarrassingly, without a single victory.

However, might the fact that Madrid have the ‘Derbi’ against Atletico in the Champions League on Wednesday give Javi Gracia’s sprightly, fun-to-watch team an edge?

Might it, also, make them a bit more chipper about their chances that Karim Benzema, eight goals in his last nine appearances against Málaga, is out injured?

How much do an away win at the Camp Nou and a home draw with champions Atlético [last week] strip away the ‘beaten before we take the field’ malaise which affects so many of La Liga’s minor teams at the Bernabéu?

Those are some of your decisions.

“The fact that Málaga won at the Camp Nou has focussed our attention on them, it means we’ll not take them lightly” Carlo Ancelotti promised on Friday

In midweek Madrid were thwarted by a superb Jan Oblak performance. Without the 22 year old Slovakian performing heroics Carlo Ancelotti’s men would have scored three, maybe four times.

Is Carlos Kameni, a little flappy last week, capable of the same? Having made a habit of beating Madrid while at Espanyol [three of his first four game against them were wins] he’s tasted nothing but defeat in this fixture since joining Málaga.

Carlos Kameni, “The Wall”. Impresionantes las dos paradas que ha hecho en Los Cármenes para seguir manteniendo el 0-0 pic.twitter.com/8PjMQIM8gW

— Sphera Sports ® (@SpheraSports) March 7, 2015

Thirty two conceded in fifteen games. If this helps your punt you can be wholly sure that Gracia’s team will play to win. They’ll press, they’ll try to pass the ball forward whenever possible and they’ll not abandon their front-foot, passing game I hate to emphasise what John Cleese would call ‘the bleedin’ obvious’ but Cristiano Ronaldo is your ‘go-to’ man here. One of his best records is against Málaga – 13 in 14 meetings.

Might Modric be a dark-horse ‘anytime’ bet? He was pinging the ball at goal in midweek – shooting boots on. Should be fun, should be open … should be a home win by a two goal margin.

Madrid choose from: Casillas, Keylor Navas, Pacheco: Varane, Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo, Carvajal, Arbeloa, Nacho: Kroos, James, Bale, Lucas Silva, Modric, Isco, Illarramendi, Ronaldo, Chicharito and Jesé.

Hunter’s Tip: Real Madrid to win by exactly 2 goals at 3/1

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Granada v Sevilla, Sunday 4pm

Glass half-full or half-empty for Unai Emery? After Thursday’s dramatic and draining comeback win over Zenit [2-1] he’ll be pleased not to have to travel too far to play Granada on Sunday. But he could probably have done without the extra ‘edge’ of an Andalusian derby against a team desperate to claw its way out of the relegation threat they face.

.@UnaiEmery_: La vuelta será distinta pero hemos madurado mucho en saber competir los partidos http://t.co/FwIRzgdkTI pic.twitter.com/GPD4SdNR9X

— Sevilla Fútbol Club (@SevillaFC) April 16, 2015

There’s also the extra buzz for what is an aggressive home support that Andalucia’s ‘big boys’, Sevilla, have only played at Los Cármenes three times in the last forty years. It’ll be like there’s a bounty on their heads. Regional pride will see to that.

Yet Granada have been surrender-monkeys recently – white flag at the Bernabéu when losing 9-1 a couple of weeks ago, a sea of white flags last weekend losing 3-0 at Almería

Your big evaluation here is: ‘when will Sevilla’s huge European exertions cost them a ‘hangover’ in La Liga?’

Not here you’d hope. This is a mighty season for Unai’s squad and it would be such a damp squib if it teetered now.

Bacca’s goal against Zenit made it seven scoring headers from Sevilla’s players in their last ten matches. It’d be logical if their second half impact won Denis Suárez and Mbia starting places on Sunday. Each of them, plus Aleix Vidal, might be worth backing.

Finally, Sevilla’s league season only has seven matches left. I don’t know if I can hold on that long without a lame Dick Emery joke. So long as they keep winning I won’t have to reach for …. ‘Ooh they are awful, but I like them…’

Hunter’s Tip: Sevilla -1 goal at 12/5

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The Europa League holders have played 12 games [1080 minutes] more than Elche this season, 42:30, the latest of which was the remarkable 3-1 win at Villarreal on Thursday night. That means that in their last seven matches they’ve won five, drawn won and scored three+ goals on five occasions.

Five star stuff.

Add in the fact that it was a year yesterday that Sevilla last lost at home in any competition and the size of Elche’s task is clearer. As a handy guide – of the 16 goals Sevilla have scored in those last seven games Vitolo has 5, Gameiro 3, Bacca 2 and there have been a smattering of own goals and penalties for both sides. Bacca was rested on Thursday and thus should start, Iborra who also got two in the last seven and two against Elche the last time this fixture was played, is suspended. Vitolo took a knock on his knee at Villarreal, couldn’t train Friday and is a doubt. Elche, for their part, are rather more troubled.

The league is investigating €2.5m missing from the club coffers around about the time that they needed a result against Málaga in order to avoid relegation. Two of their ‘ultra’ supporters were jailed for violent behaviour this week. Aarón Ñíguez is carrying a knock, centre half Sergio Pelegrín is definitely out and Adrián González is suspended.

Back Bacca, back Mbia, watch out for a post-Europe slump, and if you fancy Elche to shock back Jonathas because he’s their motor for goals and assist. But even if Sevilla need to come from behind, they should have sufficient to take three points here. 2-1

• Hunter’s Choice: Sevilla to win 2-1 at 7/1

Real Madrid v Levante Sunday 8pm

Carlo Ancelotti is one laid-back dude. So laid-back that he’s had to defend himself recently: “I won three Champions League’s with this ‘easy-going’ coaching style” he drawled the other day.

And with that nature, one of his sayings is: “Even after the worst defeat, the sun will still rise the next morning”

So, given the appalling week Madrid have had, this needs to be Dawn and the darkest hour needs to have been the 4-3 home defeat to Schalke. Either that or President Florentino trying to put out the fire with gasoline by not only giving the dreaded vote of confidence but then refusing to guarantee that it applied beyond May.

Take the injuries into account, take loss of form into account, take accumulated mental and physical tiredness into account – fine. But, right now, Madrid’s major problem is that their collective confidence is fractured. The strikers don’t believe the defence, particularly Iker, will keep the ball out and the defence don’t believe the strikers are working hard enough. There’s more finger-pointing than at a proctologists’ training course.

The midfield? They are like Scotty in the original Starship Enterprise – beetling about looking busy and shouting ‘We cannae take any more Cap’n’ A statistical representation of that fact is that Madrid ran TEN kilometres less than Schalke in that defeat. Horrifying. So – how to call this one? First off it’s likely that Luka Modric will start. Vital to have him back, but impossible for him to hit maximum performance, or max-stamina, immediately after four months out. Not only is Kroos knackered, he and Isco are each one booking away from missing the match at the Camp Nou next Sunday. Hard to see them both starting.

After 144 days, Luka Modric has officially returned. pic.twitter.com/LpIlRBuQWa — SocialRMadrid (@SocialRMadrid) March 10, 2015

Casillas had an absolute stinker against Schalke and Keylor playing against his old club can’t be ruled out. But the emphasis lies on whether Ronaldo’s form is returning, two goals in midweek, or it’s time to drop either Benzema or Bale so that Jesé [worth an anytime bet] can start. Ronaldo’s the good bet [NINE in his last six against Levante] but Ramos [anytime] should also return and, boy, he loves a goal to save the team when they are in shtuck.

Levante, it has to be noted, have only ever won once at the Bernabéu, tend to concede barrow-loads and have the worst goals-against record in the division.

Madrid may feel they only need to stop David Barral [anytime] – since he signed for the club he’s scored twelve goals and that’s been good enough for eleven victories.

Given that you won’t win money from Paddy on whether Madrid play either convincingly or attractively this weekend, only the result, back them to produce the goals to win by a couple.

• Hunter’s Choice: Real Madrid to win by exactly two goals at 7/2

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This looks like the shape of things to come – short and long term.

Mario Mandzukic, big old lump of ‘mala leche’ [meanness], may be Atleti’s top scorer this season with 20 all comps but to manage he’s also about as much fun as stubbing your toe.

ICYMI: Mario Mandzukic on verge of Atléti exit after Simeone bust-up. (Story: @alexburns1088) http://t.co/sg6Swl3IY8 pic.twitter.com/EfiMIrtAFZ

— The Continental Zone (@ContinentalZone) March 11, 2015

Pep Guardiola couldn’t get him out of Bayern sharply enough and now the buzz from Atleti’s training ground is that Cholo Simeone doesn’t like the cut of the Croat’s jib.

Remember that fad for ‘who would win in a fight, a tiger or a lion?’ ~ Well let’s go all hypothetical here too.

It’s Friday night, drinks have been consumed, it’s a dark alley and an ill-judged remark has been passed. Who’d win, Mario or El Cholo?

Answers on a postcard to Power tower but if those answers don’t say ‘Duh! El Cholo!’ then they’ll be put in the recycling bin.

Ok, back in character.

Atleti have been eight stone weaklings away from home in 2015 – something you might want to factor in here.

Since January they’ve played Barcelona, Barcelona [Copa], Eibar Celta, Bayer Leverkusen and Sevilla. Six away matches, three competitions, one win. The results in sequence have been 1-3, 0-1, 3-0, 0-2, 0-1 and 0-0. Four defeats, one draw, one win and four goals scored in 540 minutes.

Not great.

So dopy old Mario comes on last week in the pub-brawl masquerading as a football match, 1-1 at home to Valencia, gets booked and is suspended. [Siqueira too] Likely that means he’ll not start v Leverkusen in midweek. Massive game that. And if he’s not sold in the summer I’d be a little surprised. Roger Moore 007 eyebrow raised-level of surprise.

So Antoine Griezmann, back him any time, returns after his own suspension and the question is whether it’ll be as sole striker or with Torres at no9 and Griezmann supporting him. This looks the most likely XI – Moyá, Juanfran, Miranda, Godín, Gámez, Raúl García, Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Griezmann, Torres.

NB Torres has four in eight v Espanyol, but only one win in those matches.

What of Espanyol? Their best player, Sergio Garcia, was in court on Friday facing questions about whether he has been associated with fixing matches. They went out of the Cup, limply, at home to Athletic Bilbao and they have lost nine of sixteen matches in 2015.

Depite their last five home games v Atleti producing three wins a draw and a defeat they are under threat here. Were it not for Atleti’s misfiring away from home you’d say this was a banker win for the champions. Thus a draw is totally feasible. But fortune favours the brave – there’s a risk but why not Atleti to win, Griezmann and Torres to score?

• Hunter’s Choice: Atletico Madrid to win and Fernando Torres to score at 7/2

Eibar v Barcelona Saturday 5pm

Other than Barça fans and supporters of the teams in the relegation battle you’d guess that the rest of the world is dreaming of the mother, father, next-door neighbour and second cousin’s girlfriend of all shocks here. Eibar is a pocket-sized community – 27,000 inhabitants, a stadium that holds just over 5000. They are in the top division for the first time ever and needed to pass the hat round to have the necessary finances to take up their place in La Primera last summer.

Having thrilled with their performances in the first half of the season, easily the top performing Basque club pre-Christmas, defeat could put them in the bottom three this weekend. They are eight without a win, seven of which are consecutive defeats. Little wonder their coach, Gaizka Garitano, says:

“We are playing for more than Barcelona. “Another league here or there won’t change their history. “While not only is this a match our fans will still be talking about in ten years time, we are playing for the future of the club. “This isn’t a game to have fun in, nor one to plan which jersey you’re going to try and swap. “We need to compete and to ensure that the best team in the world doesn’t get to do what it is capable of doing – scoring five goals in five minutes.”

The difficulty is that while as defender Saúl Berjón says, “nobody has turned us over yet” – they can neither score freely nor keep a clean sheet. Messi, alone, has scored more Liga goals this season than the entire Eibar squad. Eibar’s Ipurua pitch used to be a refugee from 1974, muddy, rutted and not for artistes. They re-laid it and, it seems to me, football-playing teams now quite enjoy an afternoon at Eibar.

An advantage lost.

Talking of which, there’s a lot of speculation that the sale of Raúl Albentosa to Derby marks Eibar’s decline. Not so, their record of two goals in their last seven league matches holds the key.

Barça? Well if there were ideal conditions for a shock mebbe they are on show here. Both full backs, Alves and Alba, are out suspended. Busquets is out injured. His natural replacement, Javi Mascherano, is one booking away from missing next weekend’s Clásico. So is Mathieu. Barça have also had two and a half days off this week, which Neymar used to go to Brazil for his sister’s birthday, and the last time they had that much free time they lost at home to Málaga. But they’ve clawed their way back to the top of the table and have too much to lose for this to be a game that slips away.

Luis Suárez is made for a game like this, and he’s hit eight in his last seven matches. Messi is Messi. I know it’s against the odds but the adventurous might want to look at Piqué to add yet another to his already record goal-scoring season.

Eibar give away headed chances [a ginormous amount of them in their last home game] the Catalan loves a goal and the Basque’s also concede lots of free kicks and corners.

Might be feisty, not without threat for Barça but 1-3.

• Hunter’s Choice: Barcelona to win 3-1 at 10/1

Sevilla v Elche Sunday 6pm

The Europa League holders have played 12 games [1080 minutes] more than Elche this season, 42:30, the latest of which was the remarkable 3-1 win at Villarreal on Thursday night. That means that in their last seven matches they’ve won five, drawn won and scored three+ goals on five occasions.

Five star stuff.

Add in the fact that it was a year yesterday that Sevilla last lost at home in any competition and the size of Elche’s task is clearer. As a handy guide – of the 16 goals Sevilla have scored in those last seven games Vitolo has 5, Gameiro 3, Bacca 2 and there have been a smattering of own goals and penalties for both sides. Bacca was rested on Thursday and thus should start, Iborra who also got two in the last seven and two against Elche the last time this fixture was played, is suspended. Vitolo took a knock on his knee at Villarreal, couldn’t train Friday and is a doubt. Elche, for their part, are rather more troubled.

The league is investigating €2.5m missing from the club coffers around about the time that they needed a result against Málaga in order to avoid relegation. Two of their ‘ultra’ supporters were jailed for violent behaviour this week. Aarón Ñíguez is carrying a knock, centre half Sergio Pelegrín is definitely out and Adrián González is suspended.

Back Bacca, back Mbia, watch out for a post-Europe slump, and if you fancy Elche to shock back Jonathas because he’s their motor for goals and assist. But even if Sevilla need to come from behind, they should have sufficient to take three points here. 2-1

• Hunter’s Choice: Sevilla to win 2-1 at 7/1

Real Madrid v Levante Sunday 8pm

Carlo Ancelotti is one laid-back dude. So laid-back that he’s had to defend himself recently: “I won three Champions League’s with this ‘easy-going’ coaching style” he drawled the other day.

And with that nature, one of his sayings is: “Even after the worst defeat, the sun will still rise the next morning”

So, given the appalling week Madrid have had, this needs to be Dawn and the darkest hour needs to have been the 4-3 home defeat to Schalke. Either that or President Florentino trying to put out the fire with gasoline by not only giving the dreaded vote of confidence but then refusing to guarantee that it applied beyond May.

Take the injuries into account, take loss of form into account, take accumulated mental and physical tiredness into account – fine. But, right now, Madrid’s major problem is that their collective confidence is fractured. The strikers don’t believe the defence, particularly Iker, will keep the ball out and the defence don’t believe the strikers are working hard enough. There’s more finger-pointing than at a proctologists’ training course.

The midfield? They are like Scotty in the original Starship Enterprise – beetling about looking busy and shouting ‘We cannae take any more Cap’n’ A statistical representation of that fact is that Madrid ran TEN kilometres less than Schalke in that defeat. Horrifying. So – how to call this one? First off it’s likely that Luka Modric will start. Vital to have him back, but impossible for him to hit maximum performance, or max-stamina, immediately after four months out. Not only is Kroos knackered, he and Isco are each one booking away from missing the match at the Camp Nou next Sunday. Hard to see them both starting.

After 144 days, Luka Modric has officially returned. pic.twitter.com/LpIlRBuQWa — SocialRMadrid (@SocialRMadrid) March 10, 2015

Casillas had an absolute stinker against Schalke and Keylor playing against his old club can’t be ruled out. But the emphasis lies on whether Ronaldo’s form is returning, two goals in midweek, or it’s time to drop either Benzema or Bale so that Jesé [worth an anytime bet] can start. Ronaldo’s the good bet [NINE in his last six against Levante] but Ramos [anytime] should also return and, boy, he loves a goal to save the team when they are in shtuck.

Levante, it has to be noted, have only ever won once at the Bernabéu, tend to concede barrowloads and have the worst goals-against record in the division.

Madrid may feel they only need to stop David Barral [anytime] – since he signed for the club he’s scored twelve goals and that’s been good enough for eleven victories.

Given that you won’t win money from Paddy on whether Madrid play either convincingly or attractively this weekend, only the result, back them to produce the goals to win by a couple.

• Hunter’s Choice: Real Madrid to win by exactly two goals at 7/2

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