Let’s take track record. Thirty times in the last 25 years Barcelona have played Atletico away from home: 15 defeats, six draws only nine wins. Of those nine wins the vast majority have come since the Pep Guardiola-Leo Messi era began.

In other words, prior to this club’s re-birth with the brand of football which is now irrevocably associated with Barça and prior to the explosion of Messi as an all-time great, the Catalans almost always lost this fixture.

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Playing Atleti away is a thorny, bruising business. Many teams end up looking like a ballet dancer trying to get to the bar for a campari ahead of sixteen lock-forward All-Blacks desperate for a beer.

More, the torrent of wins in the last seven years have only come when Barça are fit, confident, full of high tempo passing and defensively sound.

Usually the very best Barça take away is a single goal win. Not always, but predominantly.

So why should Saturday afternoon in the Calderón [literally the Cauldron!] be different.

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Firstly, I don’t think that it’s impossible that Barcelona either draw or win. But here’s why Atleti should start favourites.

The champions take the pitch without Claudio Bravo, Gerard Piqué and Dani Alves.

The Champions can no longer call on the experience of Xavi and Pedro in this most thorny, boiling hot of matches. [NB one or other of the two played some minutes in each of Barcleona’s four wins over Atleti last season and Pedro gave Messi the assist for the 1-0 win in the last meeting which clinched the title for Luis Enrique’s side]

Do you consider absences like this small details?

Perhaps you do. Then bet against my guide.

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But let’s add something else.

Barcelona, with the exception of the European Supercup, haven’t been tucking their chances away with the normal deadly efficiency this season. In losing the Spanish Supercup people focused on Athletic thumping them at San Mames and drawing in the Camp Nou.

Yet Barcelona should, conservatively, have scored six times across those two games.

In winning 1-0 against Athletic and Málaga fewer chances were squandered, defensive rigour, stamina and speed of passing were restored but it’s still the case that the champions haven’t been hitting ramming speed.

Ter Stegen is a fine keeper but his pre-season has been bumpy, he conceded eight times in the two competitive games he played and this will be, remarkably enough, his La Liga debut.

He’s capable of excelling and repelling Atleti if it’s his day.

Good keeper, exceptional as a sweeper-keeper. But bang at the top of his game? Perhaps not quite.

The final element to take into account if you are going to back Barcelona for what would be a monumentally important and impressive away win concerns the strikers.

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The ‘Trident‘ is what truly sets Barcelona far apart from the madding crowd around Europe.

I don’t need to explain or promote their brilliance here. But both Neymar and Messi will be suffering the physical and mental tiredness of jet-lag after what Spain calls the ‘Fifa-virus’ [as will Mascherano at the back] while Luis Suárez will be free of that.

But Suárez needs games.

He thrives on three games a week and often just loses a knife-edge of deadly clinical finishing when he’s deprived of competitive football – as he has been now for a fortnight.

Again, could he buck that trend and score/make?

Yes, certainly.

And, pound for pound, Messi’s 23 goals in 26 meetings with Atleti is probably his most impressive domestic performance.

But are they right at their sharpest?

Saturday’s Game:

Atleti? Likely to be Oblak: Juanfran, Jimenez, Godín, Felipe: Gabi, Koke, Oliver, Tiago: Griezmann, Torres/Jackson

Barça? Likely Stegen, Sergi Roberto, Vermaelen, Mascherano, Alba: Rakitic, Busquets, Iniesta: Neymar, Suárez, Messi.

Griezmann didn’t score in four defeats to Barcelona last season but with La Real had both a decent scoring and winning record. He’s on fire right now.

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An obvious ‘anytime’ scorer bet at 9/5.

So is Messi but maybe there’s a dark horse in Rakitic. He loves the big games – not only the Champions League final v Juve but goals v Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Porto, Bayern as well as three v Atletico across his career.

Finally, Barcelona were excelled at defending the ball into the box last season but have been weak in pre-season and their regular games so far. And with Piqué missing, plus Stegen’s tendency to come for something and not be a stone-cold certainty to get there then Atleti’s Godín, Torres or Giménez might reward you with a header.

Score draw anyone?

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Newcastle United

Toon boss Alan Pardew will be delighted with his side’s start in the league despite not managing to land any big name signings before the transfer window closed.

They come into the game on the back of a 2-1 victory over Fulham at St James’ Park and have been good value for the points they have picked up so far.

Their most impressive performance this season came against North-East rivals Sunderland in the Wear-Tyne derby. They continued their fine record in the fixture despite going into the game as underdogs, winning 1-0 at The Stadium of Light.

Davide Santon is set to make his debut for the Toon at Loftus Road. The Italian full-back has played seven times for his country and was once regarded as one of the most exciting prospects in the world. The 20-year-old now has the opportunity to express his talents in the Premier League in Newcastle colours. It could turn out to be a real scoop for Pardew who signed the player on a five-year contract.

Leon Best has got off to a flyer this season and the in-form striker should be backed to score the first goal at 6/1. The 24-year-old looked a real threat against Fulham and added two goals to his account on that afternoon. Best is blooming with the quality of service he has received so far and can be trusted to continue his rich vein of form.

The last time Newcastle won at Loftus Road was with a 3-2 victory and the same result is a good bet at 28/1 to occur again. Both sides are capable of scoring goals as neither have particularly strong defences. There has also never been a league game between these two sides that has finished goalless and it would come as a complete surprise if it were to happen this time around.

Neil Warnock is likely to hand a debut to Joey Barton against his old club as well as starts for Shaun Wright-Phillips and Luke Young. Rangers were busy in the transfer window, bringing in half a dozen new players, and it may just take a while for them to gel as a team.

Their start to the Premier League season has been hit and miss. They have had just one win although it was an impressive 1-0 success at Goodison Park against Everton. However, they were well beaten in their opening game against Bolton (0-4) and at Wigan they were very much second best in a 2-0 defeat.

The hosts have yet to prove themselves in the top flight this season and are still one of the teams tipped to be relegated to the Championship at the end of the season.

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The away sides have prospered in those regional clashes as well with Liverpool upsetting Arsenal 1-0 at the Emirates while QPR put their 4-0 thrashing on the opening day behind them with a surprise 1-0 victory at Everton.

United of course opened their title defence with a 2-1 win at West Brom and, given their record at Old Trafford last season, it is no surprise to see them installed as 8/13 favourites in the match betting.

However, there is a case to be made for Harry Redknapp’s side causing an upset on the road at a big price of 5/1, with the draw on offer at 14/5 – if you forget Spurs’ wretched run against the Red Devils.

Summer signing David De Gea has come under fire following less than convincing performances for United in the Community Shield and opening Premier League game and is sure to be nervous as he tries to fill the shoes of Edwin Van der Sar.

Add to that the fact that the first-choice central defensive pair of captain Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand have both been ruled out with injury, while right-back Rafael Da Silva is sidelined for 10 weeks, and De Gea will have a new-look defence in front of him.

Jonny Evans looks likely to be partnered by Phil Jones at centre-back with Chris Smalling continuing to fill in on the right, although there is some good news for Ferguson as Patrice Evra looks set to return from a knee injury.

Javier Hernandez is also unavailable with concussion sustained pre-season so there are worries for United – and it appears to be a question of whether Spurs can capitalise.

This will be Spurs’ first game in the Premier League as their scheduled opener was called off due to the riots but they did enjoy a comfortable run out in midweek with a 5-0 win at Hearts in the Champions League qualifying first leg.

Chelsea target Luka Modric is available again after missing that game with a groin problem, providing a massive boost for Harry Redknapp, who will be without Ledley King, William Gallas and Alan Hutton, while Peter Crouch faces a fitness test on an ankle problem.

Rafael van der Vaart and Jermain Defoe both scored in the midweek rout and are both on offer at a tempting 8/1 to open the scoring at Old Trafford, although United will not afford them the time and space they enjoyed against the Jambos.

Wayne Rooney opened his account against West Brom and is the 7/2 favourite as First/Last goalscorer but United were far from impressive as they struggled to the victory.

Rooney’s goal, according to Opta, was the only effort on target for United, and they are sure to need more to take maximum points against a side looking to get back into the Champions League.

This fixture though is at Old Trafford and United are a different beast on home territory, winning 18 of 19 matches there last season on their way to claiming a record 19th title.

Spurs also have an awful record against United and have not won any of their last 24 matches against Sir Alex Ferguson’s men – last tasting victory with a 3-1 at White Hart Lane ten years ago.

Die-hard Lilywhites’ fans may find it difficult to remember their last success in Manchester as it came 22 years ago with a 1-0 success, while this fixture last year ended 2-0 to the home side.

However if you can put that run to the back of your mind, 5/1 on the away win offers good value, particularly with inexperience running through the United rearguard – while the game looks like it will offer plenty of goals.

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Karim Ziani scored the only goal of the match from the penalty spot in the second half as coach Rabah Saadane answered some of the critics who rounded on him in the defeat in Ireland last week.

The squad Saadane used included defensive pillars Madjid Bougherra and Antar Yahia as well as Medhi Lacen in midfield, while under-fire Yazid Mansouri kept his place in the starting line-up despite his poor showing against Ireland.

Srecko Katanec’s UAE team were well organised early on and put pressure on Faouzi Chaouchi on two occasions.

Algeria should have taken the lead in the 17th minute after an inspired run by Ziani who found Rafik Djebbour in the box but the AEK Athens forward failed to get on the end of the pass.

The game was a sloppy yet energetic affair, with the UAE more than holding their own against their World Cup-bound opponents.

Forwards Matar and Ahmed Khalil were doing their best to trouble the resolute Algerian backline while the Fennecs attempted to inject as much pace into the game as possible, desperately in search of their first goal in three matches.

The start of the second half saw Khalil once again pestering the Algerians with his constant pressure but Chaouchi was alert and brave to come out of his goal and make a vital clearance.

Four minutes into the second half, Algeria won a penalty when Sabil handled the ball in his area. Ziani stepped up and blasted the ball past Humaid with a powerful shot to give the Desert Foxes a 1-0 lead.

Faisal Khalil was subbed into the match for Al Shihi in the 54th minute as Katanec looked for more offensive solutions. Saadane countered by putting in Ghezzal for Rafik Saifi, Djebbour for Boudebouz, and Foued Kadir for Mansouri.

Algeria dominated possession for the rest of the encounter but still couldn’t add a second and remain without a goal from open play in their last three four outings.

Saadane said after the game: “This game was a good test for us. It was very tough and a high level.

“It demonstrated the capabilities of the team, especially with the players returning from injury and took us a step closer to where we want to be. There was a lot of willingness on the part of players, who have given a great deal in these last few weeks.”

He added: “Among the positives are the physicality of the players. We played an attacking game today to try and win, given our status as a World Cup team.

“There were many problems with ball retention. No one could keep the ball and I asked the players at half-time to improve on this and they did in the second half. There are still some problems in attack, where our finishing was lacking. Hopefully we’ll have this during the World Cup.”

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