Graham Hunter: Goals all round, points shared and a 16/5 winner in today’s Madrid Derby

Atlético v Real Madrid – Saturday 3pm

Almost every stat for the Spanish champions is down on last season.

Out of the Cup earlier, fewer points than at this stage a year ago, fewer goals, more goals conceded, more defeats, worse disciplinary record.

One thing, however, is shiningly better.

Their record in the Spanish capital ‘derbi’.

Last term they played Real Madrid five times, winning once, losing three and drawing the final domestic encounter 2-2 having led 2-1 at home in a typically volcanic Calderón meeting.

Which is where battle resumes on Saturday afternoon – this time with the figures drastically in favour of Diego Simeone’s troops.

simeone_840

These two have squared off five times this season [with another in the Champions League not yet out of the question] but the Spanish champions have the Indian sign over ‘the Vikings’.

Since August Atlético have beaten the European champions:

  • in the league at the Bernabéu
  • at the Calderón in the Spanish Supercup
  • again at home in the Copa Del Rey while eliminating Carlo Ancelotti’s Spanish Cup holders.

The two further draws, 1-1 and 2-2, mean that since losing that most dramatic Champions League final last May, Atleti are undefeated in three competitions and five matches against their bitter enemies.

The five games have yielded 12 goals with Madrid the only ones who have [twice] drawn a blank.

Not since January 2008 have Atleti failed to score at home in the league against Los Blancos –

How will it go?

Even though they can most certainly win, even though ‘form goes out of the window in a derby’ Madrid don’t quite look in shape.

No Pepe, no Modric, no James, no Ramos, no Marcelo.

Bale anxious in front of goal, Ronaldo just back from a two game suspension and noticeably short on top form and goals.

Since mid-December in three different competitions he’s scored just four times in eight matches.

Prior to that he’d hit 32 in 22 matches across Liga, Supercopas and Champions League.

A big dip.

But the boy likes a show.

On form they can take a draw or a win – if Ronaldo’s not at the races then Madrid are cooked.

Vicente Caldreon

 

  • Ronaldo has 15 goals in 19 games against Atleti – seven of which came at the Calderón.

But, with half an eye on how temperamentally he played in getting sent-off and banned at Córdoba recently, old Crissy-boy also has seven yellows and a red in those 19 derbis.

Diego Simeone has his work cut out, as do you to pick a scorer.

Six of his players, Tiago, Raúl García, Fernando Torres, Arda Turan, José Giménez and Mario Mandzukic, have a goal against Los Blancos this season.

He’s going to start with Torres on the bench, Mandzukic and Griezmann up front ? Harsh on El Niño from El Cholo?

The Frenchman hasn’t hit the net against Madrid this season but is otherwise scoring for fun. Work out whether Simeone’s choice is going to be good or bad and you’ve a better chance of winning money.

I’ve a narrow feeling for both teams to score, no Ramos no Pepe, what price Godín or Miranda from a set play? Score draw anyone?

Graham’s Bet: Both teams to score and match to finish as a draw at 16/5

Getafe v Sevilla Sunday 4pm

If you think this is precisely the kind of fixture for which Quique Sanchez Flores was brought back to win then you’re gonna LOVE this stat.

The two sides have met at this stadium in Madrid ten times in the Primera Division and Sevilla have only won once. Six years ago.

Quique Sanchez Flores

Sevilla won the Cup Final the two contested [2007]. Sevilla won the Cup Final when Quique was the Atletico manager [2010]. Sevilla won when they met at the Alfonso Perez Coliseum in the Second Division.

But in the top flight Getafe are stubborn as mules when this lot come to town.

Less promisingly Quique’s two matches in charge of Getafe v Sevilla, a decade ago, each ended in scoreless draws littered with yellow cards.

IF you want to build a case for this talented, charismatic manager to win this one then here’s what you’re up against.

His eight games in charge have seen two wins, five goals and only three scorers – Álvaro, Diego Castro and Pedro Sarabia.

More, Geta are still without: Vicente Guaita, Babá Diawara, Ángel Lafita, Karim Yoda and Sergio Escudero.

But here’s the rub. Sevilla blew a chance to win in Madrid in midweek – mostly because they couldn’t finish chances.

And, before they return to the capital this weekend it has cost them.

Keeper Beto is out for at least 8 weeks after his collision with Benzema and Unai is without Vitolo, Aleix Vidal and Carriço because of suspension, adding to an injury list of Tremoulinas, Pareja, Reyes, Gameiro and Cristóforo.

They should have beaten the European champions on Wednesday, they are the better team in this match… but this is football.

This is a place they hate coming.

To me it all smacks of either Quique’s third consecutive 0-0 draw against Sevilla, ten years on, or, if he’s lucky, Mehdi Lacen, back from Copa Africa, adding to his regular groovy performances against Sevilla and a 1-0 win.

Graham Hunter’s Bet: 0-0 draw at 13/2

Espanyol v Valencia – Sunday 6pm

So, will this match tell the story of Espanyol’s or Valencia’s season?

That’s crucial.

On Matchday 3 Los Che romped it. 3-0 up until a 90th minute penalty which Sergio Garcia converted
Valencia pushed them about, played on the break, ignored any of Espanyol’s nice passing patterns and just got the knuckle-duster out.

Bish, bash bosh.

That day Lucas Vázquez and Felipe Caicedo were only subs for the visitors. Coach Sergio González had other priorities.

From then till now a great deal has changed.

For example, Valencia are Charles Atlas at home, eight stone weaklings away.

Espanyol now feel very differently about Lucas and Felipe.

Caicedo’s on a blistering scoring run – eight in his last eleven to equal his best-ever goal form which was 2010/11 with Levante. Lucas, on loan from Madrid, looks smart and technically elegant.

Now a regular starter and full of creative threat he, plus Caicedo, Duarte, Moreno, Sergio Garcia and Casilla have transformed Espanyol’s season.

Such that they knocked Valencia out of the Cup, 3-2, with the Ecuadorian striker notching twice.

Estadi Cornellà-El Prat

A result which added to the unsettling fact that although Nuno Espirito Santo is patently a firm part of a powerful and still very new project at the Mestalla there’s growing concern at his team’s apathetic away form and the concept that he’s a tactical tinkerer – too often fiddling with the formation and the starting XI.

Last week they let us down at Málaga – barely showing up.

Play like that again and, although they are a better XI and better squad than Espanyol, they’ll lose.

This week, having already suffered 7 red cards this season, they are without both Otamendi and full back Cancela – suspended.

Home wins in January over Celta, Almería, Valencia and Sevilla [10 scored 1 conceded] tell you that Espanyol aren’t to be sneered at, a home loss to Eibar before that tells you that they ain’t the Bank of England either.

Caicedo, Sergio G and Stuani worth a look for the home side, Piatti, Negredo and Paco Alcacer for the visitors.

Graham’s Bet: Espanyol win at 7/4

Athletic v Barcelona Sunday 8pm

This is one for the superstitious – those who see patterns in numbers and statistical trends which mustn’t be ignored.

The last time Luis Enrique’s mob were ‘oop north’ in the Basque country it was the first match of the year, at the Anoeta, and it was grim.

An own-goal, a defeat – both ridicule and a mini-mutiny for having left not only Neymar, Piqué, Rakitic and Alves out – but Messi too.

The defeat came just after a mini holiday.

Now they are back in the Pays Vasco – after a mini holiday.

Another mini revolt, too. The players, and to be fair the coach, didn’t want to play a scheduled friendly in Qatar this week so it was cancelled.

Everyone bar Piqué and Neymar had two and a half days off.

San Mames stadium

So, what chances of the result or the performance at San Mames repeating that of the Anoeta and leaving the title chasers with egg on their faces again?

Do you sense a pattern emerging?

It’s a thorny place, traditionally. Since 2004 Barcelona have three wins, six draws …but only two defeats in league and cup at the San Mames.

The key fact, however, is that given their four point deficit to Madrid at the top Barcelona can’t afford either of the latter two results. Not even a draw.

It’s February, so to pretend that this is an all-or-nothing weekend would be immature.

But it paints as an opportunity. Barcelona cure their travel-ills and get a bit Jack Kerouac. Memorable on the road. [Geddit?]

Away from the Camp Nou they’ve dropped thirteen points and consistently looked vulnerable.

Luis Enrique

But IF they’ve shed that personality, IF the form at the Calderón and Riazor is the real Barça then here’s the script.

They pick up three points and Madrid draw in the derbi.
Gap down to two points with a Camp Nou Clásico still to play.

That’s got to be how Luis Enrique is figuring this weekend.

What makes this particularly juicy for the neutral is that Athletic have stemmed the hemorrhage of bad results recently.

Wins and draws against Málaga and Levante in Cup and League have brought three goals for Aduriz and a sixth of the season from man-mountain defender Miki San-Jose.

Susaeta has set up three of the last four Athletic goals and they DO like to notch with a header.

Something Barcelona notoriously struggle to cope with.

Summary? Barcelona too improved, too many options, too much quality. 2-1 to the visitors.

Up to you, but if both San Jose and Piqué start I’m gonna take a wild punt on both to score. But that’s how I roll.

The sane will look to Messi, Neymar, Suárez [who’s increasingly vital for this attack] and Aduriz for scorers.

Graham’s Bet: Barcelona to win 2-1 at 7/1

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Graham Hunter La Liga Preview: A potential 10/1 Real Madrid blank and goals all round between Barcelona and Valencia

Málaga v Real Madrid. Saturday 7pm

I’m sure that there are many who have a punt based on superstition, hunches – call it what you will. If you are one of that relentlessly intuitive band of gamblers then you’ll have a cheeky wee fiver on Real Madrid not scoring at Málaga on Saturday at 10/1.

Reason? Carlo Ancelotti’s team has won fifteen straight matches in La Liga, the Champions and Copa del Rey and in doing so they’ve equalled the all-time record throughout Real Madrid’s history.

It’s only happened twice before – under the great Miguel Muñoz in 1960/61 during the Di Stefano, Puskas, Gento era when Los Blancos won five straight European Cups, and under Jose Mourinho in 2011/12.

The Muñoz team had just been knocked out of ‘their’ European Cup by Barcelona and took it out on Liga opponents. Fifteen straight wins. Fifty seven goals in the process.

The Mourinho team ended their run via a 1-3 home defeat to Barça but prior to that won five Champions League matches and ten Liga matches on the trot. Hold on…. fifty seven goals in the process.

Carlo Ancelotti

THAT’s YOUR LOTTI: Will Real Madrid’s 15 game winning streak come to an end this Saturday? (pic: Inpho)

No, you’ll never believe it. Ancelotti’s fifteen wins on the bounce have yielded … go on, guess. Yes, fifty seven goals.

So if you believe in momentum and the power of a tremendously confident squad led by the irrepressible Cristiano Ronaldo then it’s money on Madrid to win at the Rosaleda and make all-time history.

But if you’re hung-up on signs and numerical patterns then Madrid have won their fifteen games, scored their 57 goals and .. that’s their lot.

A little more help you say? Málaga are sixth, close enough to the pack that if they’d won at Atlético at the weekend they’d have gone fourth equal. Madrid looked laboured for the first time in weeks while winning 1-0 at Basel midweek. Toni Kroos admits: “I’m tired” This should be their first firm test of playing without the injured Luka Modric against a team which knows how to stretch their midfield if they aren’t positionally shrewd. However perhaps the most persuasive factor is that Málaga can’t really afford to have one, never mind three, influential players missing. Amrabat and Juanmi [goals disappearing out the window] are both out injured while in midfield their natty little organiser, Camacho, is suspended.

Last week’s red for Samuel García has been rescinded … but is that really enough to balance out the losses? No, probably
not. Perm from Bale, Ronaldo and Isco, returning to his home ground, to see Madrid through.

PS, for anyone who hasn’t lumped on the league title yet each of the previous 15 game winning runs ended with Madrid winning the title. Hint, hint.

  • Malaga 8/1, Draw 4/1, Real Madrid 1/3 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético v Deportivo La Coruña. Sunday 11am

These midday kick-offs are a relative novelty in Spain – a football nation just waking up to the fact that there may, just may, be a reason why the Premier League, with less skill and flair, is economically dominant around the world. Now, key markets [Asia, the Gulf] will watch this game in their afternoon rather than [via Spain’s horrible 9pm Sunday kick-off] in the middle of the night.

There’s a knack to playing these early matches and that’s for Atlético that’s to eat Depo for breakfast.

The champions haven’t lost at home for 26 games [twenty wins, six draws] and it’s over a decade since Depo last took a point at the Calderón on a day when Diego Simeone was on the bench, but as a 75th minute sub rather than as boss.

Toché

Also on the same bench that day was Toché – now 31, now playing for Depo and currently their equal top scorer with two. Which tells you just about all that’s needed. Depo have four goals on the road [six games] and twelve all season. Meanwhile during Atlético’s last seven home games they’ve won the lot, scored 23 times and looked increasingly powerful. During that run Mandzukic has five, Griezmann four, Raúl García three, Koke two and Godín two. Cholo Simeone’s reign has been defined by his team winning games like this when Madrid and Barcelona are away from home and there’s just the sniff of an opportunity to close the gap at the top. Take your pick [Griezmann], but back the champs.

  • Atlético 1/6, Draw 6/1, Deportivo 16/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Valencia v Barcelona. Sunday 8pm

There’s no getting around the fact that, traditionally, this is Apache territory for Barça. Across their decorated history they’ve lost to Valencia at the Mestalla in: the 1961 Inter City Fairs Cup final first leg 6-2; the 1980 Cup Winners Cup quarter final first leg 4-3; the 1999 Spanish Supercup second leg 1-0; the 2000 Champions League Semi Final first leg 4-1, the 2008 Copa Del Rey semi final 3-2. Major defeats. But it was nearly as seismic last season at the Camp Nou when Valencia won 3-2 – three points which if Barcelona had taken, it now transpires, they’d have won the title.

The deduction is that despite Barcelona’s nine goals in their last two games and Valencia’s derby defeat to Levante last week there’s no way that an away win is a ‘gimme’.

Luis-Enrique 840

Luis Enrique’s team appear to have found their best form of the season, or at least their most clinical finishing. Turgid in the first half against Sevilla last week they erupted via Leo Messi’s record-breaking second half and then trampled all over APOEL in Cyprus. But their manager has a disturbing unwillingness to play the same XI consistently, often changing the midfield and back four.

For Barça two key figures are Gerard Piqué and Messi. The latter has two hat tricks in two matches and appears both electric-quick and happy in his football. The former has put together three games, for Spain v Germany, and the last two club wins, where he’s played with confidence, form and passed the ball superbly.

Perhaps for Valencia it’s Diego Alves and Álvaro ‘the Beast’ Negredo. The keeper reserves his very best form for Barça – I’ve seen him make umpteen indescribably good saves in games where he stands between the Catalans and a humiliation for his side. Negredo scored his last goal in Spanish football against Barcelona [2-0 ahead, 3-2 defeat with Sevilla] and knocked the Blaugrana out of the cup with a goal and an assist for the Andalucians in 2010.

The most intriguing game of the weekend, both teams will score, Negredo will get off the mark, Messi will get another couple, Valencia have the capacity to win but Barcelona’s extraordinary goal power suggests they’ll do no worse than a score draw and quite possibly win 3-2.

  • Valencia 9/2, Draw 16/5, Barcelona 4/7 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Sevilla v Granada. Sunday 4pm

The theme here is: ‘define crisis?’. After their defeat in Holland to Feyenoord on Thursday Sevilla, by their demanding standards, feel like they are in free-fall. They’ve won just once in five matches, tumbling from top equal with Barcelona on Matchday 9, to fifth and seven points off leaders Madrid today. In the Europa League if they lose their last group game [at home] to HNK Rijeka the holders will be eliminated.

At which point Granada can assume their Monty Python ‘Four Yorkshiremen’ personality and sneer: ‘That’s nothing! You’ve got it easy … we’d lick the sweat off a tramp’s socks to have it that good’.

Joaquín Caparrós’ team has scored just twice since September and, in fact, seven la Liga players have scored more than Granada’s entire squad this season. No, not just Messi and Ronaldo but guys like Celta’s Larrivey and Sunday afternoon’s threat – Carlos Bacca.

Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan

To add to the woes both Riki and Rochina are out injured, further damaging Caparrós’ ability to return to the club he did so much to ‘grow’, and register a needed win. Sevilla have to marshall energy quickly after their defeat in Rotterdam.

Granada’s main problem is their striker El-Arabi who hit twenty goals over the previous two seasons but just one this. Perhaps it’s his moment? For Sevilla Kevin Gameiro’s return isn’t yet yielding the goals he’s due so the responsibility falls squarely on Bacca.

  • Sevilla 4/9, Draw 10/3, Granada 13/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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Hoops to run rings round Saints

Celtic may have already wrapped up the Scottish Premier League title this season but plenty of Bhoys players will be looking to earn a place in Neil Lennon’s plans for the future, when they host St Johnstone on Thursday (Celtic 1/3, draw 4/1, St Johnstone 8/1).

Nothing will give a Celtic squad more pleasure or more confidence than a win over their Old Firm rivals Rangers – and the fact it was a 3-0 victory on home soil in their last outing – will guarantee a buoyant mood in the Hoops camp.

It’s been a long time since Celtic enjoyed a decent run in the Champions League and Lennon’s main focus now will be on strengthening his squad to challenge for the group stages of the top European competition.

That means the current crop of players will have to prove themselves before the end of the current campaign and expect the Scottish champions to be on their metal when they host St Johnstone, despite the title already being in the bag.

Striker Gary Hooper (5/2 first goalscorer) is just one goal away from 20 in the SPL this term and he will be determined to reach the landmark in what has been a fine season for the Englishman, who has been linked with a move south of the border to the Premier League.

However, it looks like the forward, who is still just 24-years-old, wants to stay with the Bhoys to make his mark in the Champions League next season.

St Johnstone will be fully aware of the threat posed by the former Scunthorpe United man but based on their last outing, they might not have the ability to stop him.

Despite sitting in fifth place in the table, Saints have gone four games in the SPL without a win and were thumped 5-1 by a rampant Motherwell at Fir Park last weekend.

The Perthshire outfit have not won a game since they beat Inverness back at the end of March, in what has been a barren spell for manager Steve Lomas and his side.

Despite the poor run of form in the league, Saints are still just three points off a top-four finish, though, and will be looking to pull off a major scalp against the champions on Thursday night.

Francisco Sandaza has been a big loss for Lomas recently following off-field issues and the Spaniard, who is by far the club’s leading goalscorer this season with 17 in 32 appearances, is unlikely to feature against Celtic.

With their limited attacking options and their less-than-convincing defensive display against Motherwell last weekend, it’s hard to see St Johnstone getting anything out of this game in their bid to close down the gap on Dundee United in fourth.

Expect Celtic to bang in the goals, then, and it would be a brave person to go against Hooper (4/7 anytime goalscorer) adding to his goalscoring tally in front of the Celtic faithful.

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Hoops to run rings round Caley

Celtic manager Neil Lennon this week claimed he hated failure and would be disappointed if his side didn’t end the season with any silverware. That has no doubt heaped the pressure on his Hoops side ahead of their must-win trip to Inverness on Wednesday night.

Victory for the Bhoys will see them go two points clear at the top of the SPL with three matches to go. However, if recent performances are anything to go by Celtic will be as cool as a cucumber in the Highlands and roll over a Caley side that have hardly been pulling up trees recently. We preview what could be the SPL title decider.

Who would have thought that after the debacle that was Tony Mowbray last season that the relatively inexperienced Lennon would be able to step up and take the reigns as easily as he has. The former Celtic player made wholesale changes to his team in the summer, much like Mowbray had done the year before. But while Mowbray fell flat on his face Lennon has got his team humming.

After a bit of a sticky start to his time in charge – especially in Europe – Lennon has thrived as Celtic manager and his team are on course to wrestle the title away from Rangers for the first time in three seasons. The Hoops brand of attacking and attractive football has been a breath of fresh air after watching the Gers grind out the title in recent seasons. The signings of Emilio Izaguirre, Baram Kayal and Daniel Majstrovic have proven to be inspired. But the piece de resistance has been Kris Commons’ January arrival.  The Scotland international has 10 goals in 17 appearances for the Hoops and shouldn’t be overlooked to enhance his reputation again on Wednesday night.

Celtic head to the Highlands in probably their best run of form this season, avoiding defeat in their last 23 league matches. Sunday’s 4-1 thrashing of Dundee United was the perfect response to Rangers 5-0 mauling of Motherwell. While Inverness have written some unforgettable headlines against Celtic in the past recent results have gone the way of the men from Glasgow. Celtic have won six of the last eight meetings and the Hoops have already won twice at the Caledonian Stadium this season in the league and Scottish Cup.

Celtic are 3/10 to pick up three points on Wednesday, while Inverness are priced at 10/1 to win, with the draw on at 4/1.  A quick look at Caley’s home form this season will explain why they are such a big price to win on their own patch. Terry Butcher’s men have won just four out of 16 matches at home, with their last win in the Highlands way back at the start of March. Butcher slammed his team’s performance after a 1-0 lost at Aberdeen on Saturday and Caley’s season looks as though it is going to peter out.

While Inverness are unlikely to be hammered on their own patch they don’t have a strike force which will trouble Celtic’s rock solid defence. The Hoops have conceded just eight goals away from Parkhead in the league and look a good bet to keep a clean sheet, which is on at evens with Totesport. You can also backed Celtic to win to nil at 5/6.

Whatever happens on Wednesday night it will be a season-defining result we get from Inverness.

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FA Cup fifth round ties

Crawley Town have been handed the dream draw in the FA Cup fifth round as they take on Manchester United at Old Trafford.

The Blue Square Bet Premier side beat Torquay on Saturday to make it through to the last 16 for the first time. Another fourth round giant-killing side, Leyton Orient, will be at home to Arsenal, while Notts County would face Aston Villa at home if they get past Manchester City in their replay.

Here’s how the fifth round is shaping up:

West Ham v Burnley

The Hammers have shown their cup pedigree with a run through to the Carling Cup semi-finals, where they were beaten by Birmingham last week (West Ham 25/1 outright).

Boss Avram Grant will probably be thinking, privately, that the last thing he wants is another extended cup run when his real priority is a) keeping his job and b) keeping the Hammers in the Premier League.

However, the Hammers have good strength in depth and will probably look to use their fringe players against the Claret, while hoping that the Upton Park faithful will spur them onto the last eight. West Ham beat Burnley 5-3 in the Premier League at Upton Park last season.

Burnley boss Eddie Howe is likely to regard the fifth round draw with mixed feelings. On the one hand, with West Ham’s struggles this season, it is a chance for a cup upset. On the other, Burnley don’t want to be side-tracked from their main target which is reaching the play-offs (Burnley 80/1 outright).

The Turf Moor side are just five points behind sixth-placed Leeds, with a game in hand. They are unbeaten in their last two away games, drawing 0-0 at Scunthorpe then beating Portsmouth 2-1 at Fratton Park.

Notts County/Manchester City v Aston Villa

Notts County will obviously feel that their one big chance of causing an upset came and went at Meadow Lane on Sunday (County 600/1 outright).

The League One outfit were just 10 minutes away from recording an historic cup upset when Edin Dzeko scored an equaliser, and now the trip to Eastlands will be very tricky for County.

It will be a chance for Lee Hughes, who has played at the highest level, to show that he can still outwit Premier League defences. But City should have the quality to come through and face Villa.

It will be an interesting match-up between a City team who have at long last laid down a title challenge versus a side who are still at the wrong end of the table.

City have already beaten Villa at home in the Premier League, Mario Balotelli scoring a hat-trick in a 4-0 win, so Villa will know the size of the task that awaits them (Man City 6/1 outright).

But after a torrid first half of the season, Villa have begun to spark into life and they beat City in the return fixture at Villa Park, when Marcus Bent scored on his debut earlier this month. The fact that this tie will be at Eastlands should give Roberto Mancini’s men the edge (Villa 18/1 outright).

Stoke City v Brighton

Stoke did not field their strongest side away to Wolves on Sunday but were still the better side and deserved their 1-0 win (Stoke 20/1 outright).

They reached the fifth round last season, beating Manchester City and Arsenal, but were then handed the dubious honour of travelling to Chelsea and got knocked out.

Manager Tony Pulis has made it clear that he does not regard the FA Cup as a priority this season – he wants his side to reach 40 points as quickly as possible to secure a fourth consecutive Premier League season.

However, Stoke have already reached the 30-point mark and are big outsiders in the relegation market. They have not excelled at home this season, losing to the likes of Fulham and Blackpool, but they should draw a reasonable crowd to this tie and the home crowd are capable of lifting them.

Brighton produced a cup upset by winning 1-0 at Watford on Saturday courtesy of Ashley Barnes’ 17th minute goal (Brighton 150/1 outright).

Brighton fans well remember how an extended cup run can ruin a league season – they reached the FA Cup final in 1983 but were relegated from the top flight. And Gus Poyet would much rather his side stay top of League One until the end of the season than earn a sixth round place.

The Seagulls are likely to give it a good go, but will not be devastated if they lose at the Britannia Stadium.

Birmingham City v Sheffield Wednesday

The Blues are in the Carling Cup final courtesy of their aggregate semi-final win over West Ham last week. And certainly they are more of a cup side this season than a Premier League success, unlike last term when they were terrifically hard to beat at St Andrews (Birmingham 16/1 outright).

This season, they have only been beaten by Everton and Arsenal at home in the league, but have drawn six of their 11 home games.

The Blues managed an excellent FA Cup run last season, only going out to eventual finalists Portsmouth in the sixth round.

It’s hard to see Wednesday making the League One playoffs this season – they are in 12th place with plenty of decent sides above them. However, their FA Cup progress has kept the fans, who had expected an immediate promotion back to the Championship, fairly happy (Wednesday 150/1 outright).

Wednesday have been big scorers in the FA Cup this season, winning 5-2 at Southport in the first round then putting three goals past Northampton and Bristol City to reach the fourth round. They had to come from behind against Hereford on Saturday but did so in style with Clinton Morrison getting two goals as they won 4-1.

The Owls have been hit and miss for the last few weeks – they thrashed Bristol Rovers 6-2 in mid-December then were humbled 5-1 at Exeter next time out.

Wednesday have goals in their side, especially from Neil Mellor, who has scored 13. But they are likely to find this tie a step too far.

Leyton Orient v Arsenal

Leyton Orient rode their luck to beat Swansea 2-1 on Saturday. The Welsh side dominated the game but Orient keeper Jamie Jones performed heroics and the game looked to be heading for a replay (Leyton Orient 1000/1 outright).

Two minutes from time, Swansea captain Alan Tate sliced into his own net to give the League One outfit a place in the fifth round.

Orient have only lost one of their last nine league games, while their FA Cup exploits have been impressive as they put out Norwich in the fourth round and had won 8-2 after extra time in their third round replay against Droylsden.

Scott McGleish and Alex Revell are their goal merchants, with 13 apiece in all competitions, and they will fancy a crack at the Gunners.

Arsenal were lucky to get past Huddersfield at the first attempt on Sunday, needing a late winner from Cesc Fabregas. But in the circumstances they will be happy to have gone through, having played with 10 men for more than half the game (Arsenal 7/2 outright).

The Gunners are the only team who can win all four major trophies this season, as they are in the last 16 of the Champions League as well as the Carling Cup final. They should be good enough to breeze past their London rivals.

Everton/Chelsea v Reading

Chelsea will be glad to have brought Everton back to Stamford Bridge for a replay after the teams drew 1-1 at Goodison Park on Saturday (Chelsea 5/1 outright).

Salomon Kalou scored after coming off the bench as Chelsea kept on course to become the first team to win three successive FA Cup titles since Blackburn in the 1880s.

With their Premier League defence now looking highly unlikely, the Blues will very much be targeting an FA Cup triumph in May and should see off Everton in the replay (Everton 20/1 outright).

Reading won 2-1 at Stevenage in the fourth round on Saturday, but only thanks to Shane Long’s winner two minutes from time (Reading 100/1 outright).

The victory is not to be taken lightly, given what happened to Newcastle at Stevenage in the previous round, but Reading are one of a number of clubs who would much prefer league success to a lengthy FA Cup run this season.

The Royals are only four points off the play-offs, with a game in hand over sixth-placed Leeds.

They have plenty of quality players, such as Long, skipper Ivar Ingimarsson, Jobie McAnuff and keeper Adam Federici. But it’s likely Federici will be picking the ball out of the net at least a couple of times as Reading go out at Stamford Bridge.

Manchester United v Crawley Town

United are not a team likely to slip on any FA Cup banana skins, though their defeat to Leeds in last season’s competition shows it is just about possible (United 5/2 outright).

Leeds were on their way to promotion from League One, however, whereas Crawley are hoping just to break into the Football League.

United have so many quality players they can bring in that even if Sir Alex Ferguson decides to make wholesale changes from his regular Premier League team they will be formidable. They showed in beating Southampton 2-1 at St Mary’s Stadium on Saturday that they are good enough and fit enough to run lesser teams ragged in the final third of the game.

It might be a cliché to say it, but this will be Crawley’s FA Cup final. They were united, after beating Torquay on Saturday, in saying they wanted to be drawn against a big club away from home (Crawley 1000/1 outright).

The gate receipts will boost Crawley’s promotion bid, so they cannot really lose. They stand second in the league, two points behind leaders AFC Wimbledon but with four games in hand.

They will be in dreamland just to run out onto the Old Trafford Pitch, but in reality they are surely heading for a heavy defeat.

Fulham v Bolton/Wigan

This is the only tie guaranteed to be an all-Premier League affair, though it may not get the pulses of the neutral racing.
Fulham played superbly to knock out Spurs on Sunday, so they will go into the fifth round tie full of confidence (Fulham 22/1 outright).

The Cottagers are on a run of just one defeat in the last five Premier League games, though they know they have to improve their home record which has seen them draw five of their nine fixtures at Craven Cottage.

Mark Hughes’ side are still too close to the relegation zone for comfort, but know all about how a cup run can lift the club after last season’s Europa League adventure.

Bolton have performed wonders this season under Owen Coyle, though their away form has suffered recently and they currently find themselves in the bottom half of the Premier League (Bolton 33/1 outright).

It’s five away defeats in a row for the Trotters at the moment, so they will not relish another away date.

Wigan, if they get through the replay, know how tough Fulham are at home as they lost 2-0 at Craven Cottage in October (Wigan 50/1 outright).

The Latics have only won once in the league in 11 matches and staying up is not just the main priority for the club, it’s the only thing that matters.

Fulham will start as heavy favourites for this tie, whoever they face.

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