It’s all here in my brand new vlog for Paddy Power.

Watch the brilliant @bumpergraham munch you through the best of La Liga this weekend with his banker bets… https://t.co/s5SHumashf

— Paddy Power (@paddypower) September 25, 2015

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It’s all happening in Andalusia. Three brilliant games at La Rosaleda, Almería and Granada.

There may be 207 km and two and a half hours of travel between these two cities but, believe me … this is a derby match. What’s more, there’s heaps at stake.

A win can give Málaga Europa League football if they secure seventh place but three points for Sevilla would guarantee them a Champions League slot if Valencia draw or lose in Almería.

And were there not a sizzle to Sevilla playing in the Rosaleda then their ex midfield star, Duda, clearly intends to provide it. He’s now the Málaga player with the most Primera Division appearances but he also spent two years with Sevilla.

In fact the last time Sevilla had to beat Málaga to reach the Champions League his goal helped them do just that. About this match he says: “This will be intense and competitive because we want European football next season – they want Champions. “But to me it’s ‘just another game’ – important only for what we want out of it. “And my Sevilla were better than this one – we had much more quality!”

Unai Emery wants no distraction, no quitters, nobody saving themselves for the ‘glory’ of Warsaw when they play Dnipro in the Europea  League final this Wednesday. “We’ve two clear ways to achieve our goal of Champions League football – the league and winning the Europa League.

“So Saturday, in Málaga, is our first final – not ‘the game before THE final. “We need to oblige Valencia to win and to think about nothing other than that. “I’ve told my players that anyone who’s not totally focussed on beating Málaga should say so and won’t play because this is our most important game of the season”.

Emery has taken his entire squad to Marbella, on the Mediterranean, where they’ll train for this game and the Warsaw final.

Javi Grácia loses Sergi Darder to injury and Miguel Torres to injury, which restores Tissone and Juanpi to the squad which is: Kameni, Amrabat, Weligton, Camacho, Samuel, Javi Guerra, Horta, Juanmi, Tissone, Ochoa, Recio, Angeleri, Duda, Rosales, Boka, Sergio Sánchez, Juanpi, Samu Castillejo.

The lowdown goes like this. Málaga have had an awful end to the season. Since February they’ve lost nine of the last sixteen matches, often beaten by relegation fodder, often not scoring until late in the game, beaten by a ten man Elche. That said, they’ve won two and drawn one of their last three home matches with Sevilla.

It’s the eighth best home team v the fifth best away side – one which tends to win or lose on the road (just two draws  in 18 visits). Sevilla won the home leg of this, but it was their only win in six matches against Málaga.

The home side should be: Kameni, Rosales, Welligton, Angeleri, Boka: Recio, Camacho: Samuel Garcia, Amrabat, Samu Castillejo: Guerra.

Sevilla might well be: Rico, Diogo, Arribas, Kolo, Navarro: M’Bia Krychowiak: Denis Suárez, Iborra, Reyes: Gameiro

IN-PLAY: To get seventh Málaga must out-point Athletic today or finish tied on points in seventh in which case they win the head-to head. Seventh means European football if Barcelona win the Copa next week

• Sevilla to break their bad run v Málaga, win by a goal [1-2] and seek ‘anytime’ help from Gameiro, Mbia, Iborra, Duda or Amrabat.

 Almería – Valencia, Saturday, 5.30pm

Since they drew at home to Celta last week Nuno and his players have been sending out SoS signals to their fans. ‘Be there for us!’ has been the message.

This is mega, mega tense. At the beginning of the season Valencia‘s majority shareholder, Peter Lim, told his management team that Champions League football wasn’t the most important thing it was the ONLY thing.

They are fourth, right now, with more points than Sevilla and the ‘head-to-head’ advantage over Unai Emery‘s team but … BUT – if Valencia do anything other than win and Sevilla beat Málaga then, suddenly, Valencia are stuck with Europa League football, Lim is furious, Nuno’s job is in the balance and Jorge Mendes may think twice about moving his best players to the Mestalla. Hence the SoS.

Hundreds and hundreds of fans have flocked to the Mestalla to buy tickets and there are bus-trip travel deals being sold with the tickets too.

• Hey you! Jog on and get all the latest La Liga odds here on Desktop | Mobile 

André Gomes, one of Valencia’s big success stories this season is not only out, but he’s had surgery which might keep him out beyond the beginning of next season.

Valencia tend to win at Almería but only drew here last season: 2-2. A result which would leave them very vulnerable to Sevilla leap-frogging them. So what do we draw from that given that only 11 of the 22 starting players are still at their clubs a year later?

Almería’s situation is complicated. A win here might give them safety by relegating two from Eibar, Granada or Depor. In your match calculations it’s important to note that nothing other than three points would keep Sergi Barjuan‘s team up. The Dream Team legend, left back for Cruyff, reckons: “it’s only sporadic errors which have been preventing us winning and if we keep playing as we’ve been then football will repay us. “This will be an open game, we’ll give everything and it’s vital, vital that we get the first goal because Valencia concede so few”.

Further complication comes from the fact that the Court for Sports Arbitration will announce during the week whether administrative issues in payment of international transfer fees will rob Almería of three points. If so then, no matter this result, they are down. It’s a €20m spin of the dice in terms of lost revenue.

Nuno is likely to win this one with Alves; Barragán, Otamendi, Mustafi, Gayá: Feghouli, Enzo Perez, Javi Fuego, Parejo, Rodrigo De Paul: Alcácer

The stand-out threat is Thievy. Bad, bad boy when he’s full of himself off the pitch, but potentially one hell of a player. Really. Skilled, aggressive, quick, football-smart about which position to take up and three goals in his last five. Good partnership with Zongo too. “I’m intelligent, I”m good in the air and I’ve really benefitted from the new coach playing me in the middle not stuck out on the wing” reckons the on-loan Espanyol striker.

Anytime? Look for Thievy, Zongo, Hemed and for Valencia Parejo, Gayá or Alcácer.

IN PLAY: Valencia are third if they win and Atleti lose, fifth if they don’t win here and Sevilla do win. If Almería don’t win they’re down. If they finish tied on 35 with two or three other teams they stay up on head-to-head – only if they are in a direct head-to-head points-tie with Eibar for third bottom do they go down after having won this game.

• Valencia to win this one – 8/13

Granada – Atlético, Saturday, 5.30pm

It ain’t a calamity but, as they say in Spain, Atlético ‘lo tiene crudo’.

In other words the harsh reality is that the newly deposed champions, who played the final of last season’s Champions League and contested the quarter final this year [earning in the region of €90m by doing so] will have to pre-qualify for next year’s tournament if they lose here and Valencia win at Almería – how about that?

Cholo Simeone takes with him to the beautiful Andaluz city: Oblak, Miguel Ángel Moyá;Jesús Gámez, Juanfran,Miranda, Godín, José María Giménez, Siqueira; Raúl García, Tiago, Saúl, Gabi, Mario Suárez, Koke; Griezmann, Raúl Jiménez.

Which tells you that Fernando Torres, Arda, Mandzukic are all absent for one reason or another.

The reason they’ll face ferocious rivals, despite Granada’s horrible season [Sandoval is their fourth coach] is that a win gives the home side guaranteed survival and that would become their fourth win on the trot. Not bad killer form when the chips are down.

If it’s a guide, Granada haven’t won this fixture since 1973 when Pepe Reina‘s dad was in goal for Atleti and the last five Granada v Atleti Liga meetings have had three single goal wins for the visitors and two 0-0 draws.

El Arabi has scored four since Sandoval took over, Rochina and Robert Ibañez were super last week in the 0-3 win at Real Sociedad.

Expect Griezmann and Raúl Garcia to start up front, expect Granada to give Atleti a test and the crowd to be a baying mass – this is an atmospheric, aggressive stadium

Expect Cholo to go through his squad like a dose of salts if they aren’t motivated and don’t ‘show’ here – there would be casualties in the summer market in that case.

IN-PLAY – Atleti stay third with a win or a draw. Defeat means a real possibility of fourth. Granada stay up with a win but should they end up tied on 35 points with three others, or on a straight head-to-head with Depor they go down.

• Score draw – Griezmann, El-Arabi, Robert, Saúl, Godín all worth a wee punt

Barcelona – Deportivo, Saturday 5.30pm

To quote the Beastie Boys ‘You’ve got to fight! ‘For the right! ‘To Paaaarty!!’ That’s what Barcelona, and Xavi in particular, have done so that’s what’s going to happen.

The Liga trophy will be presented post match, it’s Xavi’s last League game at the Camp Nou, he’ll start, it’s Barcelona’s last game before the Copa del Rey final – so after the final whistle there’s a party.

Obviously an atmosphere like that, and the fact that Luis Enrique will dramatically shuffle the pack and give ‘backup’ players their chance to show [Vermaelen will get game time whether from the kick off or off the bench] can detract from a team’s razor sharpness and winning attitude.

But it shouldn’t here. Luis Enrique will watch players’ attitudes hawkishly and there’s a race to be part of not only the starting XI for the two big finals to come but also to even get on the bench – that’s how competitive things are at the Camp Nou right now.

Squad: Bravo Masip Montoya Xavi Pedro Iniesta Messi Neymar Jr Rafinha Mascherano Bartra Douglas Jordi Alba S. Roberto Adriano Vermaelen Mathieu Munir

The last time Depor visited here when Barça had wrapped the league up they drew 0-0 in a dull game – but that result wouldn’t automatically keep them up this time.

If they win they survive. The way to understand the head-to-head rule in this case, particularly if you are following and betting ‘in-play’ is that should Depor end equal on points with Eibar they’ll win the head-to-head – but finish equal third bottom with either Almería or Granada and they’ll lose it, thus go down.

Six draws and a win in their last ten, Depor are fighting. Historically they’ve only won three times at the Camp Nou, the last being twelve years ago when Luis Enrique was playing and Espanyol manager Sergio Gonzalez scored! Depor something like: Fabricio, Laure, Sidnei, Lopo, Canella: Domínguez, Begantiños, Borges, Cavaleiro, Lucas, Salomão

Barcelona: Masip, Montoya, Bartra, Mathieu, Adriano: Xavi, Sergi Roberto, Rafinha: Pedro, Messi, Neymar/Munir

Could Depor win? Stranger things have happened given the Barça XI but no way with Luis Enrique’s players treat this like a kick-around and they’ll want to send Xavi on his way. Goals? Xavi, Messi, Pedro, Lucas, Sidnei for your ‘anytimes’.

• Both teams to score, Barcelona win.

• Sevilla, Valencia and Barcelona to win, with a draw between Atletico and Granada – 9/1

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Spain’s ‘miracle’ team versus Spain’s manager of the month for March. Sevilla [the former] tend to find Athletic [whose manager Ernesto Valverde is the latter] pretty indigestible.The Andalusians have only won twice in the last ten meetings with the Basques home or away. However to balance that – Athletic have just one win at the Nervión in the last 20 years.

What makes them pretty miraculous, I think, is that only FOUR players remain at Sevilla from the last squad which beat Athletic – and that was just two years ago. They buy and sell at an extraordinary rate such that, even taking Xavi, Iniesta and Vicente Del Bosque into account Sevilla’s sports director, Monchi, is one of the great figures of the last decade in Spanish football. And despite the revolving door policy, buy ‘em short, sell ‘em long, Sevilla are the Europa League champions [again!] and face Zenit in the quarter final in two weeks time.

What’s also strange about them is that those last two victories over Athletic in the last ten meetings have come with ten men – Fernando Navarro being sent off both times. So if you are following it ‘in-play’ and Navarro’s sent off, don’t cash in, double the bet!!!!

If you fancy the red card market then be advised that there have been six sendings off in the last ten meetings between these two. Perhaps it nudges you towards Sevilla that in 14 games in charge against Athletic, the team he played for, Unai Emery has seven wins and four draws while his seven games as a direct opponent to Valverde have brought four wins and a draw.

If you like to back the mode of scoring then here’s a clue – in Athletic’s last five consecutive single-goal wins [1-0 x three, 2-1 x two] they’ve scored three headers and a penalty.

In the last six Sevilla games Unai’s team have scored six headers and two penalties. You’ve been warned.

Single goal win for the home side, both sides to score – look for Adúriz, Vitolo, Bacca, San Jose – perhaps Mbia or Krychowiak for a little bit of value.

Graham’s bet: Sevilla to win by exactly one goal @ 12/5. Vito to score first 7/1.

Bet Now on Sevilla v Athleticw

Córdoba v Atlético, Saturday 5pm

President Carlos González is an odd fish. Last season he built a ‘time-machine’ into which Córdoba fans could file and see images of their ‘future’ in Spain’s Primera Division. Somehow or another, in the most Alfred Hitchcock fashion ever, Albert Ferrer got them to that promised land in the final seconds of the last game of the play-offs.

Suspense? ‘Hitch’ had nothing on it. Just over a handful of games later Old Carlos sacked Ferrer, texting him rather than having the ‘Cojones’ do even speak to the guy who’d taken the club up for the first time in half a century.

Now, on his third coach this season, he’s attempting to turn the remainder of his team’s matches into a mini-league of three teams. Currently bottom of the pile González argued this week.

It’s not the same finishing last as third last because, who knows, there may be some teams relegated because of their financial or administrative affairs and that could save us – you never know.

Sadly, in this country, that’s not the most bizarre idea so it’s an attempt to ‘buck up’ spirits ahead of the visit of the Champions.

His idea, clearly, is for Córdoba to claw and tear every point from their remaining opponents, not with much hope of finishing outside the bottom three – but in case anyone else is demoted for non-football reasons. Harder for them in that they had three sent off last time out, Aleksandar Pantic, Íñigo López and Daniel Pinillos, while the excellent Fede Vico plus Iago Bouzón remain injured.

They do have Nabil Ghilas, Edimar and José Ángel Crespo, fit again while, Fausto Rossi, one of the naughty boys [with Bebé and Ghilas] caught out on the bevvy after losing to Valencia, is allowed back into the squad. Ghilas is the goal threat.

But Atleti will fight still-harder to ensure that they don’t finish in fourth place at the end of the season while they also need to get back in character ahead of the Champions League quarter final against Madrid in a fortnight. Diego Simeone (above) has renewed his contract which will inspire all around him except Mandzukic, you’d guess.

No Miranda, still suspended, so Godín and Giménez at the back. Griezmann, by all accounts flying in training and full of confidence after being with the French team. In fact with Moyá and Raúl García injured take it that Atleti will be: Oblak; Juanfran, Giménez, Godín, Gámez; Gabi, Tiago; Saúl, Griezmann, Koke; Mandzukic.

Trust in Atleti, trust in Griezmann, think about Saúl for value.

Graham’s bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 2/5.  Antione Griezmann to score first @ 7/2

Bet Now on Cordoba v Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid v Granada, Sunday 11am

Vicente Del Bosque was a promising young midfield substitute the last time Granada won at the Bernabéu. And this season’s seven out of a possible 42 away points indicates that Abel Resino, historically an Atlético Madrid man, is in search of some sort of divine intervention. Sadly for him the kick-off is midday [Spanish clock] on Sunday when the big man upstairs may be pretty occupied with his dayjob.

You have to like old Abel, who knows that it’ll need a daft combination of circumstances is his team is to prove able.

Granada’s boss reckons:

I’m hoping the ‘FIFA’ virus hits Madrid. I hope they’ve arrived back tired after the international matches, that they think this is going to be a piece of cake.This is a Madrid which can scare you if they are inspired, but also one which has been pretty irregular in 2015, one which their own fans might be a little frustrated at…

Pepe’s out injured for Madrid but, really, they must turn this into a ‘by how many….?’ match.

Barcelona play at Celta later that night and Los Blancos, having just lost the Clásico, can cut the gap at the top to a point ahead of that kick off in Vigo. They can put real pressure on. Granada don’t know what the connection between the ball and the net is – it’s that sad, that simple. Only four of the squad have two goals or more and Jhon Córdoba and Youssef Al-Arabi are tied as top scorers on four. If you insist on picking a Granada any-time scorer then Robert Ibáñez is a tidy wide player picked up on loan from Valencia.

But this will see Madrid’s attacking forces very nearly at full strength. James Rodríguez is back and should start given Isco is suspended. Gareth Bale should have scored in the Clásico, did so for Wales and has looked bristling with confidence again in training. He’s worth a punt. Madrid should win by three and it wouldn’t be a shock if the BBC, [Bale, Benzema, Cristiano] all got a taste here.

Graham’s bet: Real Madrid to win -2 on the handicap @ 8/13

Bet Now on Real Madrid v Granada

Valencia v Villarreal, Sunday 4pm

This is a little gem of a contest. Valencia is a city which already has a derby match. It’s Los Che against Levante. Villarreal is an hour north up the coast … but sufficient bad blood has developed over the [recent] years to give this the edge of a derby. In the eight years since the Yellow Submarine won at the Mestalla [Manuel Pellegrini’s team facing 9 men when David Villa and Joaquín were sent off and taking advantage via Santi Cazorla, Giuseppe Rossi and Jon Dahl Tomasson] Valencia have been firmly in control of this fixture. Four wins and a draw, fifteen goals in favour of Los Che.

Right now Valencia are a force at home – best record in la Liga. The stadium won’t only be about 95 per cent full, it’ll be raucous, confident, aggressive – and it’ll drive Nuno’s players through any residual tiredness some have from their international duties.

Drawing conclusions from training there’s a decent chance, with Enzo Pérez injured, that he’ll repeat the XI which beat Elche away 4-0 two weeks ago. That would mean no place for Álvaro Negredo in a lineup: Alves, Barragán, Mustafi, Otamendi, Gayá: Parejo, Fuego, Gomes: Feghouli, Alcácer, Piatti.

Piatti, little buzzbomb that he is, is in the form of his life. Seven goals, equal with centre forward Alcácer, but also wonderful delivery. His dead-ball work is part of the reason Mustafi and Otamendi, central defenders, have seven goals between them. The German got two last time these sides met and either one of them plus Piatti or Alcácer are worth backing.

Villarreal have, at least, had time to re-group after their horrible denuding at the hands of Sevilla. Three games, three defeats, out of Europe, seven goals conceded. Marcelino has a great record of making his team’s super fit, he’s a good motivator and he’s had two clear weeks with the majority of his squad [seven international players left, all came back uninjured] yet he has problems to face here.

Possibly enough to determine the result. Bruno, what a loss, is far off a return while Cheryshev, who’s added pace, aggression and goals, is also injured. Moi Gómez is suspended and Víctor Ruiz is a victim of the ‘fear clause’ in that he’s on loan from Valencia who won’t let him play against them.

With the loss of Gabriel to Arsenal that means that five of the ten players with the most Liga minutes for Villarreal this season will be absent at the Mestalla. Vietto is always worth backing, Musacchio is looking a set piece threat again but this should be a home win. Both teams to score.

Graham’s bet: Valencia to win & both teams to score @ 11/4

Bet Now on this result

Celta Vigo v Barcelona, Sunday 8pm

This could be a bit of fun. You know better than I do that football loves, absolutely loves, a back-story. Celta is where Luis Enrique (above) restored his budding reputation after disappointment and under-achievement at Roma. But he left, following his heart [not to mention his bank-account] after just a year to take over at Barcelona.

Already anyone who knows football is saying: ‘Intriguing, tell me more….’ For a shock it would need something beyond a neat storyline of Toto Berizzo and his players agreeing: ‘Right, we’ll show him!’ Therefore you can throw into the mix the fact that Barcelona will be without Javier Mascherano, suspended, Jordi Alba injured, and until we see how he handles the night [if risked at all] there’s the real prospect of this being a match that Leo Messi should avoid.

Badly damaged by a Martin Demichelis tackle nearly three weeks ago, Messi’s right outstep took another knock during the Clásico and, as a result, his foot was so swollen he couldn’t put on football boots while away on duty with Argentina – let alone play for Tata Martino’s side.

Should he really be risked here with the Champions League quarter final approaching and an away league match at Sevilla next Saturday to deal with first?? Just a little frisson of ‘extra’ is the fact that, back in November, Celta were the first team to beat ‘Lucho’s’ Barcelona at the Camp Nou. A clever, organised, counter-attack performance. They’ll need the same. Although their best player, Nolito [ex- Barça] reckons: “we’ll go toe-to-toe with them” that’s not advisable. High tempo, pressing – yes. Taking them on at football – big problems.

But another voice of experience, Andreu Fontas, also from the Barcelona youth system, reckons they’ve got the drop on his former club.

After a series of games like City in the Champions League, Madrid in the Clásico and then lots of their players away on international duty it can take a lot out of the squad psychologically so I don’t think this is a bad time at all to be playing Barça.

If you routinely punt on Messi to score best to leave it until the lineup is out. It’s vital for Barcelona to win this if they want to be champions so even if it shapes as a bit of a test look to Suárez, who has not had international duty, and Piqué, who’s in love with scoring goals this season, as potential ‘any-time’ scorers.

Nolito has three goals and two assists in his last eight Liga matches and shares Celta’s scoring-burden with Charles and Larrivey. This could easily be both teams to score and there’s the whiff of an upset. Be guided by your overall view of the away team. If they are to win the title they mustn’t lose here, indeed by hook or by crook they probably have to win.

PS cynics may note that it’s the same ref as Barça 0-1 Celta. But he was good that day and has twice been generous to the away side since. Inexperienced but not a ‘Celta man’.

Graham’s bet: Barcelona to win and both teams to score @ 6/4

Bet Now on Barcelona to win & both teams to score

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• Villarreal 15/4, Real Madrid 4/6, Draw 3/1 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Villarreal wins over Real Madrid come along about as often as a Scottish Independence referendum so it’s very tempting just to vote ‘No!’ here without listening to the debate.
The last time that fabled event took place Manchester City wasn’t even a gleam in Manuel Pellegrini’s eye and Real Madrid still heaped faith and optimism in Lassana Diarra and Royston Drenthe – whatever happened…… Never mind.

It was May 2009, just the second such triumph in their history and only three players from that night, Casillas, Bruno and Cani, can repeat this weekend. Each of them holds the potential to be a major participant.

Carlo Ancelotti (below), right now, is forcing all of us who pay attention to Spanish football to mimic him, in raising our left eyebrows like caterpillars ascending Alpe D’Huez for the Geometrid King of the Mountain’s title. Just over a week ago this most affable of Italian football godfathers began to snap and snarl at people who asked him about the goalkeeping situation. ‘No debate, I’m not getting into all that – Iker is the first team keeper and we won’t be rotating like last season’. Two games later he rotate the keepers.

Or… did he?

With Madrid’s home fans split down the middle over whether to chant in support of San Iker [Saint Iker] or whistle and jeer him, Casillas was left out against Elche. Rotated? Dropped? Keylor came in, did fine but basically had no work. Now Ancelotti says that he will not be playing one keeper in the Bernabeu and another in away matches but will not, either, confirm which of the two will be in the starting XI against Villarreal. [Iker I reckon]

So, what the hell is he up to?

As for Bruno he’s one of the most hard-working, agile and smart midfielders without a high profile in Spanish football. A local boy, he’s someone who could take advantage of the fact that while Toni Kroos is now the ‘organising midfielder’ he does have a tendency to go walkabout.

Then there’s Cani. Rested for Villarreal’s last game, 1-1 at Eibar, he has the aggression, height, know-how and ambition to produce something special on the big occasion, just as he did a year ago on Gareth Bale’s debut, here, in a 2-2 result which ultimately helped cost Madrid the title.

But, don’t ignore the obvious. Ronaldo (below) loves scoring at Villarreal – five in his last four visits – and he’s also hit seven in his last two Liga matches (4/9 to score anytime). The Submarine have three draws a defeat and a comeback win having trailed 0-2 at home to struggling Rayo to show for the weeks after shining in the Europa League qualifying. Imposing themselves and winning is costing them the world at the moment.

Gio Dos Santos is near to return, 20 year old ‘Lucky’ Luciano Vietto scored twice last week to open his account and Uche is working like a dog to supercede his injuries….. but it’ll take a strange twist of events if Madrid don’t add to their wee run of victories, even if at a reduced margin. Ronaldo (4/9 anytime) and Bale (10/11 anytime) to score and see them through.

Barcelona [1st] v Granada [8th] – Saturday 5pm

• Barcelona 1/8, Granada 20/1, Draw 7/1 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Football is rock n roll, football grabs the senses, puts them in a high rev spin and returns them to you at the end of 90 minutes – football is a Ryder Cup-high every weekend. Football is king of sports. So let me make your adrenalin soar and your pulse rate rip through the Stock Aitken and Waterman hi-energy beats per minute.

Barcelona and Granada had 67% and 59% of possession in their midweek games … and neither team even managed one paltry effort on target. ‘Football, bloody hell’ [© SAF] Barcelona regularly struggle to beat Granada by more than a single goal and they lost to them last season [1-0] in a match where they bombarded the penalty area but could have been there until August without scoring.

More, Barça’s Messi-dependency has grown over the last year and a bit.

If he’s on form, either as an assist-giver or scorer, Barcelona will beat most sides and become trophy contenders. If not, and he once again looked sluggish and tired in midweek even before Malága defender Weligton proved that not only can his parents not spell, he can’t read the rules of football [Clue: it’s NOT WWF] they huff and puff.

Does this paint as a possible banana-skin game for the home side?

Granada don’t concede much, they beat the Catalans last season, they’ve a healthy eight point total already and their coach, Joaquín Caparrós is one savvy dude with a wealth of La Liga know-how. Luis Enrique says: ‘I expect a complicated rival. ‘They are very strong defensively. ‘They work hard, they are smart at set pieces and they counter-attack well. ‘This’ll be the same as almost all our games this season’

Mebbe so. I’ve got a slightly different view. Granada not only were beaten at home in midweek [Levante] they were battered the previous game when winning in Bilbao on a day when they could and should have conceded about five. Barcelona were strangled all over the pitch by a super-industrious Malága midweek – it was one of those which looked like 14 men playing 11.

But the first thing which Caparrós targeted in criticising his team’s midweek slump was their intensity. Their work rate, their concentration but above all their intensity.

If they repeat that and fail to learn from Malága’s excellence – they’ll be beaten. In Jhon Córdoba (5/1 anytime) and El Arabi (9/2 anytime), Granada have two big, quick strikers capable of running beyond Barcelona’s extremely high defensive line – can Bravo keep his goal secure [none conceded in the league thus far] and head towards a record? He’s 8/13 to keep a clean sheet.

Andrés Iniesta (above) hasn’t shone yet and needs to – this is just the type of game in which he might open his account (2/1 anytime) but Ivan Rakitic, who’ll take some of the free kicks and who’s not scared of a shot from distance, might add to the one he scored last week at Levante (2/1 anytime).

Sandro (10/11 anytime), if he gets more game time, looks a little sharper in front of goal than Munir (4/5 anytime) right now which is worth noting.

Atlético [3rd] v Sevilla [1st] – Saturday 7pm

• Atletico 8/11, Sevilla 15/4, Draw 11/4 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Recently this has been a game where the Spanish league has, politely, asked all participants and management to check their holsters, knuckle-dusters, coshes and tasers in with the security guards at a desk outside each dressing room. To merely brand it ill-tempered would be like saying that the Clanton and Earp brothers didn’t turn out to be socially compatible and that the Campbell’s weren’t great neighbours to Clan MacDonald.

The last six games between the sides have been Football at the OK Corral. They’ve produced 37 bookings, nine red cards [six of which have been straight reds] and five penalties. Very nearly a card of one colour or other every eleven minutes. All bar one of the games have been under the control of Diego Simeone (below) and Unai Emery.

But a couple of the game’s bad boys have moved on – Medel, Diego Costa, Filipe Luis for example. More, when this weekend’s ref, Snr Gonzalez Gonzalez was last in charge of the fixture it was like the Peace Games and white doves were released over the stadium at the end.Right in the middle of this run of undisguised ill-feeling he managed to see the 90 minutes through with only six bookings – ie no reds, no penalties. Can this ref keep things calm again?

Rumours that he put bromide in the players’ tea pre-match are quite unconfirmed.

So, this weekend. Sevilla are joint top, two points ahead of Los Colchoneros and Simeone’s side have looked irregular in draws with Celta and Rayo plus that Champions League defeat in Athens. But beware. Over these six back-alley skirmishes there have been 18 goals only five of which were scored by Sevilla who’ve managed no better than two draws and four defeats.

Carlos Bacca has been Sevilla’s touchstone for big goals this season [and last] but he didn’t score in either meeting with Atleti last term and was subbed off both times. Is he ready for this intensity this time? Is the slight slackness which Atletico are showing [they went behind against Celta at home last week and then gifted a really stupid penalty for the equalizer] the sniff of an opportunity which the Colombian requires? He’s 12/5 to score anytime if so.

Atletico are still scoring almost all their goals from set plays [six out of seven in the league], the majority headers, so it’s still worth thinking about Raul Garcia (above, 9/4 anytime), Miranda (9/1 anytime) and Diego Godín (8/1 anytime) while for Sevilla, Stephane Mbia (11/1 anytime) just loves a big goal when he arrives late in the box.

Two significant returns. Diego Simeone’s back on the touchline after his ban … will that quieten down the feud or ratchet it up? and Mario ‘Don’t call me the Phantom of the Opera’ Mandzukic is available again thanks to his 65 gram carbon fibre mask to protect his badly fractured nose.

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Getafe

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Both teams have made solid starts to the campaign and will be desperate to claim what could be a crucial three points come the end of the season.

After a few years of turmoil both on and off the field, Sevilla had somewhat of a quiet summer this time around and it appears to have suited them following a number of strong results, most notably their 1-0 win over Real Madrid.

However, they’ve struggled in recent weeks and the international break may have come at just the right time for Michel’s men after their disappointing defeat to Celta Vigo earlier this month.

Los Rojiblancos have a number of talented players but winger Jesus Navas is undoubtedly their star man and his form often reflects his side’s fortunes.

After his brilliant display against Madrid, Navas has been quiet in recent weeks and will be desperate to produce a strong performance.

Furthermore, with him likely to come up against former Spain (5/1 2014 World Cup outright) defender Antonio Lopez, he will be even more inspired as he continues to try and show he is good enough to earn a permanent place in the national side.

Mallorca also come into the game on the back of two defeats and appear to have lost some of their momentum after a stunning start to the campaign.

Boss Joaquin Caparros has previously described his side as one of the top four in Spain and they certainly look capable of sneaking into the higher echelons this season.

This is a match they will be looking to win if they’re to achieve their target and with so much of their game plan based around a solid defence, pressure will once again be on Tomer Hemed to fire them to glory.

The Israeli (20/1 to win World Cup qualifying Group F) scored five goals in two matches while on international duty and has been flying so far this season, scoring five times in his seven league matches. He will fancy his chances of adding to his tally against the sometimes erratic Sevilla rearguard.

This one looks as if it could be a classic and the teams’ opposing styles will undoubtedly produce fireworks.

However, Sevilla are extremely strong at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan and the extra quality within their squad may just see them sneak it, but it’ll certainly be tight (Sevilla 13/2 to win 2-1).

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Both teams have had up and down seasons so far but go into the game in decent form and will see the match as the perfect opportunity to continue their good runs.

Sevilla appear to be a team in transition and have had a difficult few years since the glory days of the last decade which saw them win consecutive UEFA Cups and become a regular fixture in the knockout stages of the Champions League.

This year they have been their typically inconsistent selves but currently sit sixth in the league and many are tipping them for possible European qualification.

Despite the difficulties of the last few years, they still have a number of top class players and pivotal to their cause on Monday will undoubtedly be winger Jesus Navas. The 26-year-old has long been seen as one of the continents premier widemen but has remained loyal to the ‘Sevillistas’ and is undoubtedly their star man.

Navas will be hoping to produce a big performance as he looks to secure his place in the Spain squad for next summer’s European Championships.

Getafe currently sit 13th in the league and will go into the match full of confidence after beating Barcelona last weekend. The ‘Azulones’ are one of the smallest clubs in the league and it’s a minor miracle how they continue to compete due to their lack of financial resources.

After struggling last term, many predicted they would once again struggle but have confounded their critics and look as if they could finish in a steady mid-table position.

Their lack of finances means they very rarely boast star names but one man in their side to look out for is certainly youngster Abdelaziz Barrada. In a team known for their work rate rather than their creativity, the attacking midfielder often stands out as he looks to unlock opposition defences and was a star of their recent win against Atletico Madrid. Despite being rather raw, he has the talent to unlock any defence on his day so lookout for him to be one of the stars of the game.

Despite Getafe’s good form, home advantage could play a major part and Sevilla should take the points. With Navas pulling the strings, they are a mighty prospect at home and will go into the game expecting a comfortable victory (Sevilla 11/1 to win 3-0).

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Sevilla have had a relatively disappointing season so far and appear to have become the league’s draw specialists, having drawn five of their nine games.

They have been in decline over the last few seasons, struggling to repeat the glory days of the Juande Ramos regime when they won consecutive UEFA Cups in 2006 and 2007.

However, look down their squad list and there are still a number of world class players at the club. Taken individually, these players could form part of a side which could mount a major challenge for the title.

Home-grown winger Jesus Navas (11/4 to score anytime) is undoubtedly their star player. Navas was part of Spain’s World Cup winning side in 2010, coming off the bench in the final to play a major part in Andres Iniesta’s winning goal against the Netherlands.

He is so often the ‘Sevillistas’ main source of inspiration and his ability to unlock defences is paramount to his side’s success. His combination with either Diego Perotti or Piotr Trochowski (9/4 to score anytime) on the other wing will be vital if Marcelino’s side are to win the game.

After being promoted via the play-offs last season, Granada have struggled to adapt to life in La Liga and are currently in the middle of a run of nine games without a victory following their shock win against Villarreal in September.

Despite their poor results, Fabri Gonzalez’s team have impressed with their attempts to play football but it is more than likely that they will be relying on their defence to help them grind out a result in Seville.

Key to this will be the performance of vice-captain Diego Mainz (14/1 to score anytime), who was one of the stars in their promotion winning campaign and has continued his good form into this season. The former Rayo Vallecano player is likely to be the man charged with controlling Sevilla’s Spanish international striker Alvaro Negredo and their battle will no doubt have a major bearing on the result.

Although Granada will undoubtedly look to take the game to their more illustrious opponents, Sevilla should have too much and if they get off to a fast start, the likes of Negredo and Navas could run riot.

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The former Mallorca boss has guided Sevilla to impressive back-to-back wins over Borussia Dortmund and Atletico Madrid in his first two matches since replacing Antonio Alvarez, who was sacked after a run of one win in five fixtures.

Now, the resurgent rojiblancos face 16th-placed Sporting, who have picked up two points from their last four matches, although Sevilla striker Alejandro Alfaro is not expecting an easy game (8/1 Sevilla 2-0 in Correct Score Betting).

He said: “It will be a fiercely disputed game, but we’re working really hard and we are going there to win it.”

Sporting have a decent home record against Sevilla but lost both meetings with the Andalusians last season, but they catch a break with a couple of injuries potentially depriving Manzano of two key men.

Sporting coach Manuel Preciado recognises the opportunity that presents itself because Sevilla wingers Jesus Navas and Diego Capel may be missing from the line-up.

“It’s better for me,” he told Marca.”Possibly for the fans not, but for me it is. This team has great speed and if neither of them play it’s best for us.”

Sporting captain Rafael Sastre admitted in AS: “We all know the potential that Sevilla have. They have a squad of very versatile and, most notably, very fast players Capel, (Diego) Perotti and Navas being very good examples.

“The change of coach has been good for them, or so it seems, and now they are a more difficult team to beat than a few weeks ago.”

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The curtain falls on the Spanish domestic season tonight with the encounter between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla in the Copa Del Rey Final.

This game could easily go all the way and end up being decided on penalties such is the closeness of each side’s abilities. The draw is available at 3.25, with the inform goal machine Diego Forlan going at 6.00 to score the first goal at PartyBets.com.

Chance to silence sceptics

Both sides have performed inconsistently throughout the 2009/10 season but both managed to salvage their season’s right at the end. Atletico Madrid enjoyed Europa League success with a 2-1 win after extra time against a determined Fulham side in Hamburg, whereas Sevilla came out on top of an epic tussle with plucky Real Mallorca in a fight for fourth place and Champions League football next season. Both sides now have the chance to turn their season into a truly memorable one.

Sevilla (2.60) finished five places higher than Atletico (2.60) in the final league standings and go into the final as slight favourites. However, Sevilla coach Antonio Alvarez has stated that the two sides will be evenly poised at Camp Nou.

“I do not like to go in as favourites. That can stir up the pride of the opposition. We come with a 50 per cent chance. It is you [the media] who have to say those things, we respect Atletico Madrid a lot,” he said at a press conference.

Advantage Sevilla

Sevilla managed to find some winning form in the run-in, winning six and losing three matches of their last nine. Atletico on the other hand have already proven this season they can win cup competitions and produce the goods in the games that really matter.

These two sides played each other twice this season with Atletico winning their home match 2-1 and Sevilla winning 3-1 at home as well.

You Can Bet On This Outcome: Atletico Madrid v Sevilla

The team news for Sevilla is that Brazilian forward Luis Fabiano is injured and will play no part in the Final. Fernando Navarro will be missing from the weakened defence and Avero Negredo is suspended.

Atletico face no major injury worries and welcome back their star players who were given a rest at the weekend.

Related posts:

1. Back Sevilla To Beat Getafe In Copa Del Rey Semi Final
2. Atlético Madrid and Valencia Clash in all-Spanish Europa League Quarter-Final
3. La Liga Predictions: Atletico Madrid On Path To Europe

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