Graham’s Treble: Barcelona to win, Atletico Madrid -1 goal & both teams to score and Real Madrid to win at 4/1

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And if you asked the Real Madrid fans that same question you’d get exactly the same answer.

Sick of being second best to Barcelona, sick of football they view as pragmatic they want their cake and to eat it.

With champagne, and golden spoons and second helpings.

But if you asked the President, Florentino Pérez or Madrid’s debutant coach, Rafa Benítez the same ‘just what is it that you want to do?’ question the answer might be different.

Much more pragmatic.

Thursday’s Champions League draw gives them a group perfectly balanced not only for an assault on Europe but for the right kind of early season test.

Paris St Germain have shown over the last three seasons with Barcelona and Chelsea [ten games, two wins, four draws, four defeats] that they are on the rise and that they can threaten anyone on their day.

Not a side Madrid have to fear but one which will mean Los Blancos will need to focus and find top gear [no Primal Scream reference there] in order to subdue.

Madrid start at home, and their first away trip is far easier and less tiring than PSG’s.

Their final group game is at home and against, nominally, the weakest team. Even the schedule is on their side.

However, and this might be heretical, is winning the Champions League actually Benitez’s priority?

‘Just what is it you want me to do, Florentino?’ might well be Rafa’s question to the Madrid President.

Los Blancos have won the Spanish title twice in the last eight years.

Their fans and some of their ‘cyclops-vision’ media not only crave it, they crave the opportunity to wave two fingers at their city neighbours, Atlético, who won the title more recently, and Barcelona, who’ve dominated La Liga for a decade.

More, Carlo Ancelotti was shown the door in the summer just 12 months after winning the Champions League so dramatically against Atleti.

A victory which, if you consider the alternative for Madrid, should really have earned him another five years of job safety at the Bernabéu. It didn’t.

Major League Concerns

So whatever the sheen of Madrid’s history says, whatever the threat of Barça closing the European Cup gap between them still further Rafa Benítez must prioritise doing something he’s not achieved since the last time he coached in Spain, eleven years ago – winning the title.

Will that undermine trying to win La undécima? Madrid’s eleventh Champions Cup?

The answer lies with Ronaldo. Whatever the club’s ambitions he wants more Champions Leagues, he wants to haul Messi back in the Ballon D’Or voting and, judging by his variety of sour looks in Monte Carlo on Thursday, he wants to win the UEFA Best Player In Europe back.

Vitally, too, Ronaldo wants to edge ahead of Messi with whom he’s tied at 77 goals apiece at the top of the all-time Champions League scoring list.

With nine games of Rafa in charge Madrid have failed to score on five occasions, usually with Ronaldo absent.

So, I think there’s some fun in the Ronaldo-Messi betting.

The End of His Ron

Ronaldo has significantly outscored his rival over the last four Champions League seasons – by nine.

The last time Messi beat Ronaldo to UCL top scorer was in 2011/12 – coincidentally the last time he had a shot at Bayer Leverkusen or Bate, Barça’s new group rivals.

Against Bernd Leno, Leverkusen keeper, Messi scored six in two matches. In Borisov he put two past BATE.

Clues for this season?

Ronaldo hasn’t faced [and thus not scored against!] any of Madrid’s group rivals.

So, a priori, it might be worth an investment that Messi outscores Ronaldo this Uefa season, finishes Champions League top scorer and, thus, establishes the all-time lead.

Valencia, qualifiers, have a group in which Zenit and Lyon are both within Los Che’s orbit – beatable but, equally, capable of exploiting Nuno Espirito Santo’s team if they perform dozily.

The key to qualification is taking at least seven points from the first three games – home to Zenit, away to Lyon and then home to the weakest club, Gent.

In fact having home then away back-to-back matches with the Belgians is manna from heaven in terms of qualifying for the knockouts.

If you run a fantasy football team or like to look for less than obvious scorers then think about Sofiane Feghouli who just loves Uefa football and consistently rises to the challenge.

Their Group to Luis

Barcelona, who I think are capable of being the first to retain this competition, were given a draw that the naive think was wonderful but which will concern Luis Enrique.

Ex coach of Roma he’ll understand how hostile it is there and that starting at the Olympic Stadium in Italy’s capital is no ‘gimme’.

That their third fixture is also away, in Belorussia, means that the reigning champions need to start with concentration and hunger.

You’re laughing at me? BATE Borisov you splutter?

Beat Athletic Bilbao last season, thumped Bayern Munich the season before. BATE better than Barça, no. A niggly little test, yes.

And Now For Sevilla And Atlético

Which leaves the two sides who play at the Sanchez Pizjuan on Sunday night [19.30, Sky] – Sevilla and Atlético.

Atleti catch Benfica [whose striker Jonas didn’t mind a goal or an assist against the Colchoneros during his time with Valencia] at a good time given their consistent sales policy and the loss of influential coach Jorge Jesus.

Galatasaray and Astana carry their levels of threat/difficulty but Diego Simeone’s side is so hard working, so well balanced and so bloody stubborn that they’ll win the group regardless.

Sevilla? Well aside from the €20m cash windfall of qualifying the Champions League has brought them the reality of fighting for elbow room at Europe’s elite table.

Manchester City, Juventus and Borussia Mönchengladbach [who Sevilla put out of Europe last season] may prove too much for qualification, especially after losing three key players in Vidal, M’Bia and Bacca and needing to integrate new guys like Immobile, Konoplyanka and Llorente.

But, could Sevilla surprise everyone again by qualifying? Might they even retain the Europa League for the second consecutive time if not?

This Weekend

As for Sunday, it’s now six Liga and Cup matches since Sevilla beat Atleti at home.

There’s ill feeling between the sides who jostle to be considered third best in Spain – nearly eight bookings per match, average, over the last four meetings if you are a card-counter.

A splurge of reds in the Copa a couple of seasons ago.

Sevilla are nobody’s mugs though having lost just once at home since March 2014 [2-3 to a Ronaldo hat trick in May]

Griezmann, Llorente and a Coke/Koke any time might pay.

Score draw. 2-2 at 14/1.

Atleti: Oblak; Juanfran, Godín, Gímenez, Felipe; Koke, Gabi, Tiago; Oliver; Griezmann, Torres/Jackson
Sevilla: Beto: Coke, Rami, Kolo, Tremoulinas: Banega, Krykowiak: Vitolo, Iborra, Reyes: Immobile/Llorente

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Giovanni Trapattoni’s Republic of Ireland

The draw to will take place in Krakow on Tuesday, with the four winners joining co-hosts Poland and Ukraine, holders Spain, Germany, Russia, Italy, France, Holland, Greece, England, Denmark and Sweden at next summer’s football showpiece.

The draw will be seeded, meaning those with the four best national team coefficients will not play against each other. Here is a closer look at the teams involved:

The seeded sides:

Portugal

Cristiano Ronaldo and co will be disappointed to be in the play-offs after losing a ‘winner-takes-all’ contest with Denmark at the top of Group H. Nicklas Bendtner grabbed the winner in Copenhagen to send Denmark through automatically, meaning Paulo Bento’s men (33/1 World Cup 2014 outright) had to be satisfied with second spot.

They have a fine record, though, at European Championships with one semi-final and two quarter-final appearances in the last four tournaments, as well as being runners-up when hosting the tournament in 2004. Definitely one for the others to avoid in Thursday’s draw.

Republic Of Ireland

Trapattoni’s men (80/1 Euro 2012 outright) beat Armenia 2-1 in a nervy encounter in Dublin this week to ensure they took second place behind winners Russia in Group B.

They received a pre-draw boost by being named as seeds, meaning they avoid the likes of Portugal and Croatia. Irish hearts still carry with them a burning sense of injustice after Thierry Henry’s handball helped France knock the Irish out of the World Cup play-offs two years ago.

That determination to right the wrongs of that night in the Stade De France should see them home – just.

Croatia

Four years ago Croatia (50/1 Euro 2012 outright) revelled in being the masters of Steve McClaren’s downfall at a soggy Wembley.

However, after losing in the quarter-finals at Euro 2008 on penalties to Turkey, Slaven Bilic’s men didn’t even make the 2010 World Cup, with England gaining revenge by beating them twice in qualifying. Bilic was expected to resign after that disappointment but he has stayed on and guided them to second place in Group F, behind shock winners Greece.

Czech Republic

Michal Bilek’s men broke Scottish hearts by beating Lithuania 4-1 on Tuesday and ensuring it was they and not Craig Levein’s side who went through to the play-offs.

They will be hoping to continue their record of qualifying for every European Championships since gaining independence in 1992. They were memorable runners-up in England in 1996 and reached the semi-finals in 2004 – losing to the eventual winners on both occasions – but are perhaps considered the weakest of the four seeded teams (66/1 Euro 2012 outright).

The unseeded sides:

Turkey

Irish fans will be nervously hoping they are not paired with Guus Hiddink’s Turkey (80/1 World Cup 2014 outright).

Unpredictable and volatile – especially at home – their recent performances in major tournaments suggest you can never be quite sure what you are going to get.

After failing to qualify for Euro 2004 they went all the way to the semi-finals in 2008. They also reached the last four at World Cup 2002, but have failed to even reach the finals since.

Montenegro

England fans will be familiar with Branko Branovic’s men after seeing their side fail to beat them in both meetings in qualifying Group G.

A water-tight defence proved to be the backbone of their success as Montenegro (125/1 Euro 2012 outright) conceded just seven goals in seven qualifying games.

However, they only scored seven too, meaning the pressure will be on the likes of Fiorentina’s Stevan Jovetic and Juventus’ Mirko Vucinic to score the goals required to see them through.

Bosnia-Herzegovina

The eastern European theme continues with Bosnia (80/1 Euro 2012 outright) looking to reach their first-ever major tournament.

They have gone agonisingly close on previous occasions, just one goal prevented them from nudging past Denmark to qualify for Euro 2004, before losing to Portugal 2-0 on aggregate in the play-offs for World Cup 2010.

You get the impression that it will not be too long before they go one better and make a major finals for the first time. They certainly shouldn’t be discounted here.

Estonia

When Estonia were drawn with Italy, Serbia and Slovenia in Euro 2012 qualifying Group C, few would have predicted their presence in Thursday’s play-off draw.

But while Tarmo Rüütli’s men were beating Northern Ireland 2-1 in their final qualifying match, Serbia were losing in Slovenia, meaning the small Baltic nation had reached their first ever qualification play-off. You get the impression they are just happy to be there, meaning they should not provide too much opposition for the seeded sides.

However, the pressure of expectation can do strange things, meaning Estonia (400-1 Euro 2012 outright) can play with a freedom knowing they have nothing to lose.

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