Graham Hunter: Barcelona may be set for a tough night but they can still bag you a 7/1 winner

Getafe v Sevilla Sunday 4pm

If you think this is precisely the kind of fixture for which Quique Sanchez Flores was brought back to win then you’re gonna LOVE this stat.

The two sides have met at this stadium in Madrid ten times in the Primera Division and Sevilla have only won once. Six years ago.

Quique Sanchez Flores

Sevilla won the Cup Final the two contested [2007]. Sevilla won the Cup Final when Quique was the Atletico manager [2010]. Sevilla won when they met at the Alfonso Perez Coliseum in the Second Division.

But in the top flight Getafe are stubborn as mules when this lot come to town.

Less promisingly Quique’s two matches in charge of Getafe v Sevilla, a decade ago, each ended in scoreless draws littered with yellow cards.

IF you want to build a case for this talented, charismatic manager to win this one then here’s what you’re up against.

His eight games in charge have seen two wins, five goals and only three scorers – Álvaro, Diego Castro and Pedro Sarabia.

More, Geta are still without: Vicente Guaita, Babá Diawara, Ángel Lafita, Karim Yoda and Sergio Escudero.

But here’s the rub. Sevilla blew a chance to win in Madrid in midweek – mostly because they couldn’t finish chances.

And, before they return to the capital this weekend it has cost them.

Keeper Beto is out for at least 8 weeks after his collision with Benzema and Unai is without Vitolo, Aleix Vidal and Carriço because of suspension, adding to an injury list of Tremoulinas, Pareja, Reyes, Gameiro and Cristóforo.

They should have beaten the European champions on Wednesday, they are the better team in this match… but this is football.

This is a place they hate coming.

To me it all smacks of either Quique’s third consecutive 0-0 draw against Sevilla, ten years on, or, if he’s lucky, Mehdi Lacen, back from Copa Africa, adding to his regular groovy performances against Sevilla and a 1-0 win.

Graham Hunter’s Bet: 0-0 draw at 13/2

Espanyol v Valencia – Sunday 6pm

So, will this match tell the story of Espanyol’s or Valencia’s season?

That’s crucial.

On Matchday 3 Los Che romped it. 3-0 up until a 90th minute penalty which Sergio Garcia converted
Valencia pushed them about, played on the break, ignored any of Espanyol’s nice passing patterns and just got the knuckle-duster out.

Bish, bash bosh.

That day Lucas Vázquez and Felipe Caicedo were only subs for the visitors. Coach Sergio González had other priorities.

From then till now a great deal has changed.

For example, Valencia are Charles Atlas at home, eight stone weaklings away.

Espanyol now feel very differently about Lucas and Felipe.

Caicedo’s on a blistering scoring run – eight in his last eleven to equal his best-ever goal form which was 2010/11 with Levante. Lucas, on loan from Madrid, looks smart and technically elegant.

Now a regular starter and full of creative threat he, plus Caicedo, Duarte, Moreno, Sergio Garcia and Casilla have transformed Espanyol’s season.

Such that they knocked Valencia out of the Cup, 3-2, with the Ecuadorian striker notching twice.

Estadi Cornellà-El Prat

A result which added to the unsettling fact that although Nuno Espirito Santo is patently a firm part of a powerful and still very new project at the Mestalla there’s growing concern at his team’s apathetic away form and the concept that he’s a tactical tinkerer – too often fiddling with the formation and the starting XI.

Last week they let us down at Málaga – barely showing up.

Play like that again and, although they are a better XI and better squad than Espanyol, they’ll lose.

This week, having already suffered 7 red cards this season, they are without both Otamendi and full back Cancela – suspended.

Home wins in January over Celta, Almería, Valencia and Sevilla [10 scored 1 conceded] tell you that Espanyol aren’t to be sneered at, a home loss to Eibar before that tells you that they ain’t the Bank of England either.

Caicedo, Sergio G and Stuani worth a look for the home side, Piatti, Negredo and Paco Alcacer for the visitors.

Graham’s Bet: Espanyol win at 7/4

Athletic v Barcelona Sunday 8pm

This is one for the superstitious – those who see patterns in numbers and statistical trends which mustn’t be ignored.

The last time Luis Enrique’s mob were ‘oop north’ in the Basque country it was the first match of the year, at the Anoeta, and it was grim.

An own-goal, a defeat – both ridicule and a mini-mutiny for having left not only Neymar, Piqué, Rakitic and Alves out – but Messi too.

The defeat came just after a mini holiday.

Now they are back in the Pays Vasco – after a mini holiday.

Another mini revolt, too. The players, and to be fair the coach, didn’t want to play a scheduled friendly in Qatar this week so it was cancelled.

Everyone bar Piqué and Neymar had two and a half days off.

San Mames stadium

So, what chances of the result or the performance at San Mames repeating that of the Anoeta and leaving the title chasers with egg on their faces again?

Do you sense a pattern emerging?

It’s a thorny place, traditionally. Since 2004 Barcelona have three wins, six draws …but only two defeats in league and cup at the San Mames.

The key fact, however, is that given their four point deficit to Madrid at the top Barcelona can’t afford either of the latter two results. Not even a draw.

It’s February, so to pretend that this is an all-or-nothing weekend would be immature.

But it paints as an opportunity. Barcelona cure their travel-ills and get a bit Jack Kerouac. Memorable on the road. [Geddit?]

Away from the Camp Nou they’ve dropped thirteen points and consistently looked vulnerable.

Luis Enrique

But IF they’ve shed that personality, IF the form at the Calderón and Riazor is the real Barça then here’s the script.

They pick up three points and Madrid draw in the derbi.
Gap down to two points with a Camp Nou Clásico still to play.

That’s got to be how Luis Enrique is figuring this weekend.

What makes this particularly juicy for the neutral is that Athletic have stemmed the hemorrhage of bad results recently.

Wins and draws against Málaga and Levante in Cup and League have brought three goals for Aduriz and a sixth of the season from man-mountain defender Miki San-Jose.

Susaeta has set up three of the last four Athletic goals and they DO like to notch with a header.

Something Barcelona notoriously struggle to cope with.

Summary? Barcelona too improved, too many options, too much quality. 2-1 to the visitors.

Up to you, but if both San Jose and Piqué start I’m gonna take a wild punt on both to score. But that’s how I roll.

The sane will look to Messi, Neymar, Suárez [who’s increasingly vital for this attack] and Aduriz for scorers.

Graham’s Bet: Barcelona to win 2-1 at 7/1

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Graham Hunter: No matter how ‘Liverpool-ised’ Madrid have become since 2009 they don’t like a good old fashioned English football aerial bombardment

The last time Madrid left Anfield they’d been run over so badly that every last man jack had Looney-tunes tyre-tracks up the front of their body and all over their faces.

As opposed to the previous time these two behemoths of European football had met, in a European final which was one of the dullest, achingly-slow elite matches you could wish to suffer, that 2009 Champions League tie was jam-packed full of daring, energy, power and unfettered attacking.

The 1984 European Cup final was one of the ultimate lessons in the means justifying the end.

Vicente del Bosque as a Real Madrid player

Mixing the velvet glove with the iron fist

When I was writing my book about the ‘Inside Story of La Roja’s Historic Treble’ I phoned Graeme Souness to talk about the role and skills of Madrid’s talented, creative central midfielder that day in Paris: one Vicente del Bosque.

He told me: “I looked back at that final a couple of months ago because Jamie Redknapp rang me to tell me it was on television. I realised, watching it after such a long time, that for players like del Bosque in Madrid’s midfield Liverpool must have been a nightmare to play against because we were already putting into practice many of the things which are in vogue now: pressing all over the pitch, full-backs pushed high up their touchline so that I stayed sitting in front of the two centre-backs protecting them. I see much of that as central to the success of Barcelona and Spain nowadays.”

At the time Graeme didn’t mention the modern Madrid, but he could have done.

In 1981 the club didn’t learn from Liverpool’s brand of football, didn’t understand that mixing the velvet glove with the iron fist was something which would still function as well in 2014 as it did when Bucksfizz were winning the Eurovision Song Contest.

In 2009 they did learn.

If you recall the Anfield ambush, Madrid were not only hammered 4-0, they couldn’t compete.

They couldn’t keep up mentally or physically: with each passing quarter of an hour the self-belief and stamina diminished to the point that the Reds, inspired and led by one of the great Stevie Gerrard performances, were shooting fish in a barrel.

If you are able to go back and luxuriate in the images, or if, as a Koppite, they are still seared on the brain, then just call up the bewildered looks on the faces of Raul, Heinze and Gago as they thought only about ‘what just happened?’, ‘how soon can this be over?’

Steven Gerrard v Real Madrid 2009

  • Betting: Will it be Real revenge for the Anfield Ambush?

Stevie wonder

I’ve spoken to Liverpool players from that night and their verdict is unanimous. They knew, in advance, that they’d be able to out-sprint, out-last, out-jump and out-muscle Madrid – the out-playing would follow as a natural consequence.

They already knew that Raul was no longer a real threat when the contest was hi-energy, that he epitomized the ‘faded greatness’ of the Madrid era.

The great difference in the ‘lessons’ which were nearly three decades apart is that Madrid assimilated and applied the latter one.
A strategy was adopted.

They wanted Jose Mourinho even then – Florentino Perez wanted to Liverpool-ise, or better still, to Chelsea-ise Madrid.

They wanted to modernize. To blend technique with intensity, power with pace, creativity with coruscating energy.

The coach that night was Juande Ramos who’d achieved just those things with Sevilla, who’d regularly put Madrid through the wringer using players like Luis Fabiano, Freddie Kanouté, Seydou Keita, Ivica Dragutinovic, Julio Baptista, and the late Antonio Puerta. Their 3-5 win at the Bernabéu in the Supercopa was the template. Power, height but oodles of technique.

Juande Ramos didn’t work out at Madrid but Sevilla, Chelsea and now Liverpool had shown the men in grey suits that they were gonna have to use some grey matter. To catch up.

Heinze and Cannavaro out. Raúl directly after.

Sequentially: Alonso, Arbeloa (both alumni of the Anfield ambush), Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema, Garay, Angel di Maria in.

Ronaldo celebrates

Strength in numbers

You see the pattern? You see the influence? Height, power, grit, Premier League experience, intensity – all of them tick some or all of those boxes.

Then, one year later, Mourinho. Now Bale.

Height, power, stamina, aggression but, in due course, more weights in training, more gym work, faster paced, more direct football. The Spanish title, three straight Champions League semi finals and then, in Lisbon, La Decima.

There’s a line of cultural change which can be traced from Anfield in 2009 until now.

Painful and humiliating though the experience was.

A brand of thinking at the Bernabeu, particularly around their Valdebebas training centre, that the powerful mix of Spanish craft, technique and strategy when blended with the power, height, pace, commitment, stamina and directness of the Premier League was not only the way forward generally but a means of waging football ‘war’ on the prettier, possession based football at Barcelona.

blog_rodgers_main

‘Madrid have it all’

Without pre-judging the result, the master-pupil roles have been reversed from 2009 until now.

Liverpool are patently in the process of trying to reestablish some of the Spanish football credo which they had in their very best years – brilliant, quick passing above all.

But Brendan Rodgers unsurprisingly told Guillem Balaque for AS newspaper this week: “Right now Madrid is a team which can perform at a high level the like of which I’ve not seen in years. They have it all. Great players, speed, technique, fantastic team spirit, experience and a marvellous coach. They play well in tight spaces and if you leave them big spaces on the pitch there’s no team in the world better at exploiting them. My view is that when you mix the technique of the Spanish and or Dutch with the British spirit then it’s very very hard to beat.”

But, to business. To play the first of the two games at Anfield is an advantage. To play Madrid when Bale is out, Ramos is out, Benzema and Varane are both just back from illness and Casillas is searching for confidence and match sharpness – all of this is helpful.

So is the fact that the Clásico is on the horizon.

Form, talent and impetus still suggests that between Ronaldo, James Rodríguez, Luka Modric and Toni Kroos the European Champions can score and return home without losing, quite likely win.

Raheem-Sterling

Sterling: the jewel in Liverpool’s crown

However, Martin Skrtel recently organised Slovakia to shock and humiliate Spain, his and Balotelli’s aerial ability directly correlate with the weakest point in Madrid’s armoury.

And then there’s Raheem Sterling.

The jewel in Liverpool’s crown.

I will put a wager of a nice bottle of wine that within a season or two Real Madrid will, literally, not be able to resist his particular charms.

He has everything that the Spanish club adore… and more. And, for the moment, the best thing he can do is torment Marcelo and get that ball into the middle.

No matter how anglified, no matter how Liverpool-ised Madrid have become since 2009 they don’t like a good old fashioned English football aerial bombardment. Tin hats on, everyone.

  • Betting: Slide into the latest Liverpool v Real Madrid markets >

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Graham Hunter exclusive: Barca believe they can beat AC Milan

Graham Hunter byline

Champions League: Barcelona v AC Milan

The cynics, perhaps let’s dub them the realists, will argue it’s all case of ‘too little too late’  for FC Barcelona with regard to putting AC Milan out of the Champions League.

For precisely the last two months there has been a drop in the intensity of Barça’s play, not just defensively with only a couple of clean sheets in that time, but the way in which they can put the pedal to the floor and tear even the best teams apart.

Last week, without a match, interim coach Jordi Roura mixed a little bit of time off with a double stint on Wednesday and pretty high-intensity work during the other training sessions.

This is the moment of the season when, since the beginning of the Guardiola era, the Blaugrana’s form begins to peak for the second time. There is a high priority put on having the turbo-chargers available in November and December, then again in March and April.

However this season the dip in late January, and particularly February, has seemed more pronounced and perhaps the surge will come too late for this tie – particularly taking into account the current scoreline.

Yet the players believe.

MBSBarcelonavMilan

Around the training ground over the last five or six days there has been no slumped shoulders, plenty of positive words and two meetings when the coach, but particularly the senior players, confronted problems, solutions, tactics and general ideas of how to eliminate Milan.

But can Barça really shift from a low gear to the type of Formula 1 performance which can make Milan “fearful” as their legendary coach Arrigo Sacchi says must be the case if the home side is to have any chance?

At this stage over the last four seasons Barça have beaten Bayer Leverkusen 7-1, Arsenal 3-1, Stuttgart 4-0 and Lyon 5-2. If that level of performance is about to arrive then, added to the fact that they have distinctly the better XI, then the Catalans will progress. Anything less and the weight of history, no side with a two-goal deficit and no away goal has gone through, will bear down on them too heavily.

If Andres Iniesta scores any time in this match, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score & Scorecast singles on the match.

  • Betting: Barcelona v AC Milan 
  • Graham Hunter on the Paddy Power Blog


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