“This is a banana-skin game,” Carlo Ancelotti said on Friday morning. With a straight face.

Well, frankly, you’re as likely to hear the Banana-splits theme played by the London Philharmonic Orchestra, conducted by Mr and Mrs Harmonic’s son Phil before you are likely to see Eibar winning at the Bernabéu.

Yes, yes. It’s not hard to understand Carlito’s intention. The European champions were duffed-up in the first half at Rayo Vallecano in midweek, they have no margin of error here and they’ll be without  the excellence of James Rodríguez, the order of Toni Kroos and the returning goal-power of Gareth Bale.

So, fine, avoiding complacency by warning about the threat Eibar carry, that’s okay.

But even though Eibar’s coach Gaizka Garitano was singing from the same song-sheet [‘One banana, two banana, three banana four…tra la la, tra la, la, la…] when he said this week: “People think we are dead and buried but there’s a lot of life left in us”, this isn’t the weekend they can be permitted to show that’s true.

Prior to beating Málaga on Tuesday the Basques had not won since January 10, at home to Getafe, and failed to scored in seven of 10 games. That tells a story. It may not be the greatest story ever told, but Easter’s past now.

What’s true, and has been for a couple of weeks, is that Garitano’s team is playing better. Making chances, making it worth watching them because they are pleasing to the eye.

• If you fancy a walk on the wild side then Mikel Arruabarrena is, by far, their best prospect of an historic goal in their first Liga game at the Bernabéu. He has two in their last two games and was denied a third, unjustly, by the ref against Málaga.

Next best? Saúl Berjon – nice wee player.

Los Blancos aren’t yet on full ramming speed, will miss James in particular because he’s added cutting edge and verticality in their play since returning.

Also, they have the Madrid derby in the Champions League on Tuesday. However what showed in midweek is that if their silk glove is a bit tatty, their iron fist is in punching mode.

Watching them react, so powerfully, to the nonsense of Ronaldo being denied the most blatant of penalties at Rayo indicated that there is ferocity of spirit and an intent to win this title.

They should have a far harder afternoon than a week ago when hitting nine against Granada but they can be backed.

“We don’t care if Ronaldo’s had his yellow card rescinded and is free to play,” said the Eibar President Friday afternoon. Wrong!

Back CR7 to score, again, back Benzema, back Isco and, have a flutter on Ramos.

•  Match betting

Málaga – Atlético, Saturday, 5pm

It’s just not practical to take a disparaging tone of voice when speaking about a match at La Rosaleda – even after Javi Gracia’s team lost a bit of steam in recent weeks.

Málaga can play, have individuals who’ll produce clever moments, the crowd is usually numerous and boisterous. [This match is sold-out]. So it’s a trap for the unwary.

However, the instinct to back an upset here, which would have been tempting during the earlier part of Atleti’s bumpy 2015, has diminished a bit.

Diego Simeone’s team went through a spell where they looked leg-weary, psychologically bruised and just a tad vulnerable to energy, organisation and ambition. All of which Málaga have been capable of providing this term.

But Los Rojiblancos can evidently see the finishing tape now, clearly.

It’s like the combined effect of knowing that their guru, their Pied Piper [What do you mean ‘who’? Simeon,e of course!] has renewed his contract and will stay next season plus the knowledge that they are edging towards guaranteeing Champions League football while playing the quarter final of that competition against a team they’ve beaten four times since August has injected pure adrenaline in their veins.

• Since coming within 12 minutes of a 1-0 home win over Valencia on March 8, but then conceding, Atleti have played five times without conceding; beating Getafe [2-0], Córdoba [2-0] Bayer Leverkusen [1-0] and Real Sociedad [2-0] plus drawing with Espanyol [0-0].

Keeper Miguel Ángel Moyá is back from injury, so is Diego Godín, while Juanfran has served his suspension. Mandzukic and Raúl García are both still injured.

The negative about the home side is that their three recent defeats, and a draw in the last five games, have been against sides lower than them in the table – Granada, Rayo, Eibar and Real Sociedad.

On the positive side, Gracia was without two significant players when losing at Eibar in midweek – Samu Castilejo and Sergio Sánchez. They return while Sergi Darder, a doubt, makes the squad. Gracia will choose from: Kameni, Amrabat, Weligton, Samuel, Javi Guerra, Ricardo Horta, Juanmi, Tissone, Ochoa, Recio, Angeleri, Duda, Rosales, Boka, Sergio Sánchez, Miguel Torres, Samu Castillejo, Sergi Darder.

Back to bananas, there’s a slip-up threat here but back Atleti, just.

NB: Fernando Torres has five in eight against Málaga; Griezmann has three in eight.

NB1: Don’t look for a goal feast. In only FOUR of the last 11 meetings between these two clubs have both teams scored. Prior to this season the last three games produced only three goals

NB2: have a think about Godín anytime. Each of Málaga’s last two defeats have been 0-1 to back-post headers.

• Match betting

Sevilla – Barcelona, Saturday 7pm

In life, which do you believe in more? The immovable object or the irresistible force?

Sevilla haven’t lost at home for over a year – since their city neighbours Betis won at the Nervión.

Thirty-one matches in League, Europe and Cup. Immovable.

Barça, in contrast, have won 10 straight away matches, no mean feat, since losing at the Anoeta in their first match of 2015. Irresistible?

The league-leaders carry some baggage to Andalusia – and not just the shadow of Wednesday’s Champions League quarter final in Paris.

Good though he was against Almería during the week, Messi still appears to be protecting his right outstep where he’s felt pain since the Manchester City game at the Camp Nou.

Neymar, dropped in midweek, is out of form and has been for weeks.

Contract talks with Dani Alves have broken down and his agent [also his ex-wife] stated that some of his defensive lapses recently owe to his mental state caused by uncertainty over his playing future. [He’s out of contract in June]. Way to impress the coach Mrs A.

But we have to take into account the fact that not since Alves scored the winner for Sevilla in this fixture back in 2007 have Barça lost here.

Seven wins and two draws in their last nine visits.

Unai Emery just doesn’t have a happy record against them either – wherever he’s been he’s found it super-hard, either in adversity or when on top in a game, to emerge with a win.

• Eighteen matches, four different clubs, no victories, five draws, 13 defeats. What a chance he has here.

Bacca, having been rested at Levante, will start and is the best bet. Sevilla are pretty interesting aerially and while Barcelona have improved, radically, when defending set-plays they are by no means invulnerable. Mbia is fit and loves to score a header.

• Only twice in 23 home matches this season have Sevilla failed to score, only three times in 22 away trips this season have Barcelona failed to score.
• So: high chance both teams to score; fate says ex-Sevilla captain Ivan Rakitic scores for Barcelona; Messi’s sights are in with his free kicks and is due to net one soon;Bacca, Vitolo, Mbia, Krychowiak all might repay faith.

Barcelona are not on high form but have a really grim determination about them these days. For that, for Messi and for their eight year record in Sevilla they’ll start favourites.

But if you back a score draw you’ll not be alone.

• Match betting

Valencia – Levante, Monday 7.30pm

Football is remarkable. Valencia have beaten both the Spanish and European champions this season, have a new, wealthy owner, brim with good new players, the crowds have been huge and vibrant … but they’ll enter the city derby with nerves.

Levante have been fighting relegation all season, are on their second coach this term and lost at home in midweek but there’s a genuine sense that they are both robust and capable of staying up.

But, Frank Carson-stylee, there’s more.

Levante, pretty remarkably, have three wins and two draws in their last six Valencia derbies. Given the relative resources and squad-calibre that’s a standout achievement.

One of the defeats of Valencia was this season – one of only two wins in their first ten home matches. Some kids.

And more. Nuno Espirito Santo may have been looking for the gypsy who’s thrown a curse or whoever on his staff broke a couple of mirrors.

Last week they played a weakened Villarreal side, one which went on to be pumped 0-3 at home by Espanyol in their next match, but Los Che squandered chances, played without enough zest and dropped two points. Major chance missed

Then, away at Athletic, they had Otamendi wrongly sent off and, winning 0-1, dropped two more points in the final seconds when Aduriz scored from a blatantly offside position.

Suddenly they are not only not third but they’ve gifted Atleti a three point lead.

Okay, Levante like facing Valencia. They absolutely require points for survival but Los Che have just three more home games after this one and, by hook or by crook, they simply have to win. On balance, just, it’s worth backing them to do that.

• Match betting

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This looks like the shape of things to come – short and long term.

Mario Mandzukic, big old lump of ‘mala leche’ [meanness], may be Atleti’s top scorer this season with 20 all comps but to manage he’s also about as much fun as stubbing your toe.

ICYMI: Mario Mandzukic on verge of Atléti exit after Simeone bust-up. (Story: @alexburns1088) http://t.co/sg6Swl3IY8 pic.twitter.com/EfiMIrtAFZ

— The Continental Zone (@ContinentalZone) March 11, 2015

Pep Guardiola couldn’t get him out of Bayern sharply enough and now the buzz from Atleti’s training ground is that Cholo Simeone doesn’t like the cut of the Croat’s jib.

Remember that fad for ‘who would win in a fight, a tiger or a lion?’ ~ Well let’s go all hypothetical here too.

It’s Friday night, drinks have been consumed, it’s a dark alley and an ill-judged remark has been passed. Who’d win, Mario or El Cholo?

Answers on a postcard to Power tower but if those answers don’t say ‘Duh! El Cholo!’ then they’ll be put in the recycling bin.

Ok, back in character.

Atleti have been eight stone weaklings away from home in 2015 – something you might want to factor in here.

Since January they’ve played Barcelona, Barcelona [Copa], Eibar Celta, Bayer Leverkusen and Sevilla. Six away matches, three competitions, one win. The results in sequence have been 1-3, 0-1, 3-0, 0-2, 0-1 and 0-0. Four defeats, one draw, one win and four goals scored in 540 minutes.

Not great.

So dopy old Mario comes on last week in the pub-brawl masquerading as a football match, 1-1 at home to Valencia, gets booked and is suspended. [Siqueira too] Likely that means he’ll not start v Leverkusen in midweek. Massive game that. And if he’s not sold in the summer I’d be a little surprised. Roger Moore 007 eyebrow raised-level of surprise.

So Antoine Griezmann, back him any time, returns after his own suspension and the question is whether it’ll be as sole striker or with Torres at no9 and Griezmann supporting him. This looks the most likely XI – Moyá, Juanfran, Miranda, Godín, Gámez, Raúl García, Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Griezmann, Torres.

NB Torres has four in eight v Espanyol, but only one win in those matches.

What of Espanyol? Their best player, Sergio Garcia, was in court on Friday facing questions about whether he has been associated with fixing matches. They went out of the Cup, limply, at home to Athletic Bilbao and they have lost nine of sixteen matches in 2015.

Depite their last five home games v Atleti producing three wins a draw and a defeat they are under threat here. Were it not for Atleti’s misfiring away from home you’d say this was a banker win for the champions. Thus a draw is totally feasible. But fortune favours the brave – there’s a risk but why not Atleti to win, Griezmann and Torres to score?

• Hunter’s Choice: Atletico Madrid to win and Fernando Torres to score at 7/2

Eibar v Barcelona Saturday 5pm

Other than Barça fans and supporters of the teams in the relegation battle you’d guess that the rest of the world is dreaming of the mother, father, next-door neighbour and second cousin’s girlfriend of all shocks here. Eibar is a pocket-sized community – 27,000 inhabitants, a stadium that holds just over 5000. They are in the top division for the first time ever and needed to pass the hat round to have the necessary finances to take up their place in La Primera last summer.

Having thrilled with their performances in the first half of the season, easily the top performing Basque club pre-Christmas, defeat could put them in the bottom three this weekend. They are eight without a win, seven of which are consecutive defeats. Little wonder their coach, Gaizka Garitano, says:

“We are playing for more than Barcelona. “Another league here or there won’t change their history. “While not only is this a match our fans will still be talking about in ten years time, we are playing for the future of the club. “This isn’t a game to have fun in, nor one to plan which jersey you’re going to try and swap. “We need to compete and to ensure that the best team in the world doesn’t get to do what it is capable of doing – scoring five goals in five minutes.”

The difficulty is that while as defender Saúl Berjón says, “nobody has turned us over yet” – they can neither score freely nor keep a clean sheet. Messi, alone, has scored more Liga goals this season than the entire Eibar squad. Eibar’s Ipurua pitch used to be a refugee from 1974, muddy, rutted and not for artistes. They re-laid it and, it seems to me, football-playing teams now quite enjoy an afternoon at Eibar.

An advantage lost.

Talking of which, there’s a lot of speculation that the sale of Raúl Albentosa to Derby marks Eibar’s decline. Not so, their record of two goals in their last seven league matches holds the key.

Barça? Well if there were ideal conditions for a shock mebbe they are on show here. Both full backs, Alves and Alba, are out suspended. Busquets is out injured. His natural replacement, Javi Mascherano, is one booking away from missing next weekend’s Clásico. So is Mathieu. Barça have also had two and a half days off this week, which Neymar used to go to Brazil for his sister’s birthday, and the last time they had that much free time they lost at home to Málaga. But they’ve clawed their way back to the top of the table and have too much to lose for this to be a game that slips away.

Luis Suárez is made for a game like this, and he’s hit eight in his last seven matches. Messi is Messi. I know it’s against the odds but the adventurous might want to look at Piqué to add yet another to his already record goal-scoring season.

Eibar give away headed chances [a ginormous amount of them in their last home game] the Catalan loves a goal and the Basque’s also concede lots of free kicks and corners.

Might be feisty, not without threat for Barça but 1-3.

• Hunter’s Choice: Barcelona to win 3-1 at 10/1

Sevilla v Elche Sunday 6pm

The Europa League holders have played 12 games [1080 minutes] more than Elche this season, 42:30, the latest of which was the remarkable 3-1 win at Villarreal on Thursday night. That means that in their last seven matches they’ve won five, drawn won and scored three+ goals on five occasions.

Five star stuff.

Add in the fact that it was a year yesterday that Sevilla last lost at home in any competition and the size of Elche’s task is clearer. As a handy guide – of the 16 goals Sevilla have scored in those last seven games Vitolo has 5, Gameiro 3, Bacca 2 and there have been a smattering of own goals and penalties for both sides. Bacca was rested on Thursday and thus should start, Iborra who also got two in the last seven and two against Elche the last time this fixture was played, is suspended. Vitolo took a knock on his knee at Villarreal, couldn’t train Friday and is a doubt. Elche, for their part, are rather more troubled.

The league is investigating €2.5m missing from the club coffers around about the time that they needed a result against Málaga in order to avoid relegation. Two of their ‘ultra’ supporters were jailed for violent behaviour this week. Aarón Ñíguez is carrying a knock, centre half Sergio Pelegrín is definitely out and Adrián González is suspended.

Back Bacca, back Mbia, watch out for a post-Europe slump, and if you fancy Elche to shock back Jonathas because he’s their motor for goals and assist. But even if Sevilla need to come from behind, they should have sufficient to take three points here. 2-1

• Hunter’s Choice: Sevilla to win 2-1 at 7/1

Real Madrid v Levante Sunday 8pm

Carlo Ancelotti is one laid-back dude. So laid-back that he’s had to defend himself recently: “I won three Champions League’s with this ‘easy-going’ coaching style” he drawled the other day.

And with that nature, one of his sayings is: “Even after the worst defeat, the sun will still rise the next morning”

So, given the appalling week Madrid have had, this needs to be Dawn and the darkest hour needs to have been the 4-3 home defeat to Schalke. Either that or President Florentino trying to put out the fire with gasoline by not only giving the dreaded vote of confidence but then refusing to guarantee that it applied beyond May.

Take the injuries into account, take loss of form into account, take accumulated mental and physical tiredness into account – fine. But, right now, Madrid’s major problem is that their collective confidence is fractured. The strikers don’t believe the defence, particularly Iker, will keep the ball out and the defence don’t believe the strikers are working hard enough. There’s more finger-pointing than at a proctologists’ training course.

The midfield? They are like Scotty in the original Starship Enterprise – beetling about looking busy and shouting ‘We cannae take any more Cap’n’ A statistical representation of that fact is that Madrid ran TEN kilometres less than Schalke in that defeat. Horrifying. So – how to call this one? First off it’s likely that Luka Modric will start. Vital to have him back, but impossible for him to hit maximum performance, or max-stamina, immediately after four months out. Not only is Kroos knackered, he and Isco are each one booking away from missing the match at the Camp Nou next Sunday. Hard to see them both starting.

After 144 days, Luka Modric has officially returned. pic.twitter.com/LpIlRBuQWa — SocialRMadrid (@SocialRMadrid) March 10, 2015

Casillas had an absolute stinker against Schalke and Keylor playing against his old club can’t be ruled out. But the emphasis lies on whether Ronaldo’s form is returning, two goals in midweek, or it’s time to drop either Benzema or Bale so that Jesé [worth an anytime bet] can start. Ronaldo’s the good bet [NINE in his last six against Levante] but Ramos [anytime] should also return and, boy, he loves a goal to save the team when they are in shtuck.

Levante, it has to be noted, have only ever won once at the Bernabéu, tend to concede barrowloads and have the worst goals-against record in the division.

Madrid may feel they only need to stop David Barral [anytime] – since he signed for the club he’s scored twelve goals and that’s been good enough for eleven victories.

Given that you won’t win money from Paddy on whether Madrid play either convincingly or attractively this weekend, only the result, back them to produce the goals to win by a couple.

• Hunter’s Choice: Real Madrid to win by exactly two goals at 7/2

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Valencia v Getafe Sunday 11am

Back to beginnings.

Quique Sanchez Flores was not only an aggressive right back for Valencia for nearly 300 games in the 1980’s it was in his single previous season at Getafe coach that he did well enough to earn his shot at coaching Valencia.

That was when Los Che were reigning champions [04/05] and QSF had just been pinched, by Madrid-based Getafe, from the Real Madrid youth coaching system.

His Getafe beat the title-holders [then coached by Claudio Ranieri] at the Coliseum and lost 3-1 at the Mestalla but he’d done enough to inherit when Valencia got shot of the Tinkerman.

QSF only lasted two and a bit seasons but he did precisely what is now demanded of Nuno Espirito Santo – qualify for the Champions League.

Old Quique has football in every corpuscle.

He shares a birthday with Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar and Carlos Tevez, his dad, Isidro, was a repeat trophy winner with Real Madrid, his Godfather was Alfredo Di Stéfano while he himself won the title with Los Blancos and went to Italia 90 in the Spain squad.

But he’ll be doing damn well to repeat Getafe’s 3-1 win at Valencia last season. They’ve only played at the Mestalla ten times in the league -eight defeats, that one win and a draw.

It’s a sign of the changing times at the Mestalla that only two Valencia players from that rarest of rare defeats last season will start on Sunday [Barragán and Parejo].

Nuno doesn’t fancy the lunchtime kick-off [midday here in Spain] so he fixed a closed-doors friendly against Zenit on Thursday at midday just to practice the ‘feeling’.

Valencia won 1-0 [Parejo scored again] and it looks like they’ll start Alves, Barragán, Mustafi, Otamendi, Gayá; Enzo, Fuego; Piatti, Parejo, Rodrigo DP; Negredo.

Geta did Valencia a huge favour last week, beating Sevilla, I’d expect them to repeat the good feeling this week by losing here.

None of those who’s goals won the first meeting this season [0-3 Valencia] will start: Alcácer, Rodrigo Moreno and André Gomes.

Parejo can’t stop scoring [already the highest total of his career], Negredo owes his boss a goal, Gayá, who’s fllying, is a wee ‘outside’ bet.

Álvaro is QSF’s repeat scorer. Five straight wins at home for Valencia in all comps since November, Getafe’s last Liga away win was in October. Back the home team by two.

• Graham’s Bet: Parejo to score anytime and Valencia to win 16/5

Barcelona v Levante Sunday 4pm

Their main striker, David Barral, scores a hat-trick as often as Jose Mourinho admits: ‘You’re right, I was out of order’.

So it’d be nice to try and play-up Levante’s chances.

But I’m not sure that’s realistic. Since losing to Real Sociedad on January 4 Barcelona have played ten, won ten and scored 37.

There are patches of play where they are as electrically quick, as intuitive and as confident as at any time since the peak of the Pep Guardiola era. Not all the time, but regularly.

This season their La Liga goal-ratio is 62:13; historically they’ve played Levante eleven times at the Camp Nou, winning eleven and scoring 41.

So unless something seismic is about to happen let’s assume a home win …okay?

Perhaps the art is in determining the margin. Neymar’s rate of goals since losing at the Anoeta is nine in nine matches – but the last three games have seen him fluff really gaping chances, including a penalty against Villarreal in midweek. So do you back his goal-a-game record or feel critical because he’s not been properly clinical?

Messi should get 2+ goals here but thinking about Pedro, Xavi, Rafinha or Rakitic might bear fruit here because Luis Enrique will certainly try to rotate his first-choice XI throughout the match.

As for Suárez he continues unchanged. Exceptional in his team play, bursting with assists but finishing less ruthlessly than he’d like. Barcelona’s most regular score at home to Levante is 5 – perhaps they’ll have to settle for a slightly less impressive result this time?
Suárez, Messi, Pedro and Barral.

• Graham’s Bet: Barcelona -3 10/11 and Messi to score two goals 4/5

Celta Vigo v Atlético Madrid Sunday, 8pm

Talk about some sort of curse. It’s not opening the Tomb of Tutankhamun, or running amok with a jack-hammer in a mirror factory.

But Joaquin Larrivey did his karma some sort of damage when he scored Celta Vigo’s first La Liga winner at the Camp Nou since World War II.

Prior to that historic night last Autumn the big Argentinian had seven goal in ten league games. Rocket-fuelled.

Since then, not one in 649 minutes and ten games. Three and a half horrible months.

Last season he scored against Atleti for Rayo and quite fancies a return date.

“I’m not sure if it’s true to say that I ‘miss’ the glory of scoring so long as the team wins but I’m hungry to start again and it’s a good battle against Godín and Miranda. “They are aggressive, tough and keep their concentration high for the whole game. “It’d be a great way to start another run of goals getting one against them this weekend”.

And he might be worth a look. Atleti are without Koke [injured], Raúl García and Arda Turan. Interestingly, for a centre half, tough-as-teak Godín will play with a broken nose, using a plastic ‘Phantom’ mask.

RT @diegogodin: Recién estrenando mi máscara. Ya pude entrenar y probarla pensando en el domingo. pic.twitter.com/fvJ065dJwk

— Atlético de Madrid (@Atleti) February 11, 2015

Can he be as effective, as fearless in every challenge?? Saúl, despite injuring his knee while making the third goal last week, should be good to start. So Cholo Better Call …. oh, you got there already…
Meanwhile El Cholo Simeone has been practicing this week with Mandzukic, Griezmann and Fernando Torres up front.

A statement of intent.

Celta, remarkably, haven’t won at home to Atleti since 2005 – losing 0-1. 1-3 [twice] and 0-2 in the four games since.

Those two sides shared four goals in the first meeting of the season and a result of that order doesn’t look impossible now that Celta, if not Larrivey, have remembered how to score the odd goal.

Look for Torres, Griezmann, Larrivay and Nolito as likely scorers. Good betting.

• Graham’s Bet: Atleti win and Torres to Score 7/2
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The kind of match to watch out for. Córdoba spent months looking like they weren’t cut out for la Primera and their cowardly President sacked Albert Ferrer by emissary, and then text, rather than be brave enough to tell him to his face.

A pox on him I say.

When the Andaluz side lost heavily at the Camp Nou in December, the players got the mother and father and next door neighbour of all rollickings from their flint-hard aggressive coach, Miroslav Djukic who then told the world in general that his lads lacked ‘cojones’ and had simply turned up to swap shirts with the Barcelona stars.

At that stage they’d won just once and were in free-fall. Since the tongue-lashing they’ve picked up seven of the available nine points.

The European champions have had a week of dedicated training and preparation thanks to being out of la Copa – but these games, I guess, are the kind of David v Goliath moments when a small side desperate to stave off relegation sometimes somehow catches the big-guy complacent and dozy.

If, and I stress IF, that’s your considered view on this test for Carlo Ancelotti’s mob then try this.

Nabil Ghilas is the striker Algeria left behind when they went to the Cup of Nations and he’s got a bee in his bonnet about it.

I’d have loved to have defend my country’s colours but since I moved to Spain they’ve ignored me and now I’m set on scoring against Madrid and winning to show them what I can do. I’ve shed six kilos since the start of the season and right now I’d not say that it’s a dream to score against Iker Casillas because when I’m on the pitch and in form I always believe I can beat anyone.

He’s top scorer with five – one of which won Córdoba their first victory away at Athletic Bilbao for 42 years.

But the two who stand out, quality-wise, are the pair who combined for last week’s 10-second goal against Eibar. Fede Cartabia, a flamboyant Argentinian winger on loan from Valencia, made it for Florin Andone – a 21 year old Romanian brought up near Barcelona. Ferrer loved the kid’s attitude and emerging ability but injury hampered his development.

Now he’s got three goals in five games and although the impoverished club charges him €50 he can barely afford [he’s on youth team wages] for each match shirt he keeps – he’s going to swap this one with a Madrid star come hell or high water. Preferably having beaten them.

Ronaldo, (above) despite knee pain, should start, Pepe is still injured so Rafa Varane plays and you’d imagine that Sami Khedira should deputise for Isco, also injured [and a loss].

Usually you can stand on Honest Carlo’s words and the Italian reckons his team benefitted from a dedicated week, are ready to perform and, thus, it’s probably time to back Goliath to duck the slingshot. 1-3. NB, a promising 24 year old Portuguese striker, name of Bebé is in the Córdoba squad. They say United are interested….

Graham’s bet: Real Madrid to win 1-3 @ 10/1 

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Elche-Barcelona Saturday 5pm

Keith Moon dies, Charlie Chaplin’s coffin is stolen and then recovered, Jamie Carragher, Gigi Buffon and Emile Heskey are all born, Dallas [JR, Sue Ellen and the Poison Dwarf] airs its first episode and Garfield is created.

1. The last time Elche scored against Barcelona.

Nine games across those Buffon-Carragher-Heskey years, an aggregate of 30-0 in favour of the Blaugrana during those 810 minutes.

Three of those matches have come this season with a 3-0 league win on the opening day complemented by an aggregate 9-0 thumping in the Cup where Fran Escribá’s side was clinically dismantled.

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that if, again I stress that word really heavily, you see something to set your little gambler’s heart going pitter patter in the way Elche play then it must be because of Jonathas.

The Brazilian striker is reminiscent of Diego Costa, albeit in 2009/10 with Valladolid, when he’d remorselessly harass defenders when he didn’t have the ball and wage war on them when he did.

Jonathas, already 25, won’t turn into a world class finisher like Costa did but he has power, height, aggression and reasonable technique.

As for Barcelona – will they be the group which drew 0-0 at Getafe and Málaga and surrendered 1-0 at Real Sociedad? Or will they repeat the urgency, unity and dazzling skill of last week’s 4-0 win at Deportivo la Coruña?

Despite a monumental challenge in Madrid this Wednesday against Atlético in the second leg of the Cup quarter final, Luis Enrique’s named a strong squad, not resting a single key player.

So, for those who like to bet in-play the things to look for would be a) does Luis Enrique’s team press and mob the opposition … or give off a ‘can’t be bothered’ Kevin the Teenager approach to that blue collar work? The other thing, which for purely alphabetical reasons we’ll call b) is: how fast is the ball moving between players.

Recently Messi (above) and Co. have made the football fizz and zip between them and opposition [Elche, Atlético and Depor] simply haven’t been able to cope.

It’s not a time to back against Messi, he’s hotter than Johnny Torch, but there’s value in looking at Alba and Pedro. Alba simply knows where the goal is and pops up every so often at longer odds while Pedro might get more game time than normal in order to assure one of the ‘big’ three up front is particularly fresh for the midweek tie at Atleti.

Maybe we’ll get memories of ’78 – ticker-tape, the Argentinian World Cup, the debuts of 3-2-1 and Grange Hill plus that last Elche goal against Barcelona [though this lot have only put two shots on target against the Blaugrana in 180 minutes this season].

But even though Escribá and gang organized a 0-0 nil in this fixture against a knackered Barça last May it’s tough to see them doing anything other than shipping two or more goals this time.

Graham’s bet: Barcelona (-2 on the handicap) @7/5

Atlético-Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 7pm

This, for the uninitiated, is a Madrid derby. For the initiated, it’s a game without the crackle of excitement it would usually merit because Rayo’s boisterous, noisy, loyal and generally admirable fans are boycotting the game.

Pity. Paco Jémez’s team made life objectionably difficult for the Spanish champions on the first match weekend of the season

But it’d be remiss of me not to remind you that the last time Rayo beat their neighbours they were coached by Juande Ramos, Kasey Keller was in goal and Jimmy ‘Pichichi’ Hasselbaink was up front for Los Colchoneros.

In fact let’s stick with Jémez for a minute. Utterly dedicated to the Pep Guardiola school of football his team are more ‘front-foot’ than the forward half of a pantomime horse.

There are hints that a) he’s well enough thought of at Atleti that he might be next in the door whenever Cholo Simeone leaves but also b) that whether or not the Atleti job is on offer this summer Jémez, who’s asking for a bigger contract raise in order to renew than Rayo want to pay, may hit the road anyway.

Suffice to say that he’ll ensure his team try to put on a show today. Future employers may be watching. [A nice little vignette is that Jesus Muñoz, Jémez’s assistant, was room-mate to Atleti legend Fernando Torres when El Niño first broke into the Atleti team. Wouldn’t you just bet on Torres repaying the friendship with a goal to break Rayo hearts?]

Anyway, not to repeat an earlier point, Simeone’s champions have a testing mid-week match with Barcelona and you’d bet he’ll shuffle the pack in terms of a starting XI.

Raul Garcia should start, might score, both Koke and Arda need to prove fitness. Diego Godín is suspended so Manucho might just get a chance to add to his headed goal at Real Sociedad last week.

But Rayo really want to get Leo Baptistao fit enough to play, and score, against his former team.

Graham’s bet: Fernando Torres to score anytime @ 5/6

Valencia v Sevilla, Sunday 8pm

A downright corker.

Two sides, both economically challenged, locked in mortal battle for the fourth place in La Liga which can win you anywhere from €10m to €50m of Champions League revenue.

You want more!

Two sides who fought to a standstill in the semi final of the Europa League last season, until Stéphane Mbia popped up with one of those ‘where the hell did that come from?’ second-leg-94th-minute-away-goal winners.

More? Mas? As they say here in Spain.

Both sides have recently been thumped by Espanyol in the Cup – Valencia 2-0, Sevilla 3-1.

And, finally, you still want even more? Okay. Unai Emery, currently the coach of Sevilla, Europa League holder and sitting cosily in fourth position, did terrific work in charge of Valencia, helped them make huge profits on footballers who thrived under him and kept on getting Los Che champions league qualification. But he was perpetually undervalued – by the club, by the media, by the fans. He’ll be given a sometimes frosty, sometimes hostile welcome back at the Mestalla on Sunday night.

Two wins apiece in the last four of this Liga fixture in Valencia and Mbia’s on international duty so not able to repeat his feat.

Bacca often repays a backer, Gameiro’s form is on the rise and Valencia have been conceding headed goals of late so you may like to look at Pareja or Carriço.

As for the home side, Negredo played for Sevilla long enough to know their weaknesses and score against them, Álcacer is long overdue reward for his good movement and Andre ‘I shoot on sight’ Gomes deserves to hit the net more often for his quality of movement and work rate. Draw looks good, but Sevilla look a tad tired. Valencia to win by one goal.

Graham’s bet: Valencia to win @ 6/5 or Valencia to win by exactly one goal @ 11/4

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Chelsea v Benfica

Chelsea striker Didier Drogba is priced 7/2 to put daylight between the two sides and grab the first goal of the tie, but faces a race against time to prove his fitness after missing the win over Aston Villa on Saturday with a toe injury.

One man who did play in that game, and indeed score, was Drogba’s strike partner, Fernando Torres, who netted for the first time in the league since September. A goal can do wonders for a player’s confidence and, at 4/1 to score the first goal, the Spaniard may be worth your consideration.

Benfica bounced back from their first leg defeat to Chelsea with a stoppage-time victory over Sporting Braga. The dramatic win over their title rivals should provide Jorge Jesus’ men with a timely morale boost and the 12/1 about them to win Wednesday’s match 1-0 (correct score) and take the tie into extra time seems generous.

The Portguese side’s away form in Europe hasn’t been brilliant, but their two goals at Old Trafford earlier in the campaign knocked Manchester United out of Europe and shows that they’re capable of scoring goals on English soil.

Real Madrid v APOEL

APOEL Nicosia are not fancied to get the goals they need at the Bernabeu and upset a Real Madrid outfit that won the first leg in Cyprus 3-0, and on Saturday put five past Osasuna.

If Real can get the first goal then expect the trail-blazing Cyrpriots to crumble. The Spaniards are at 5/1 to win the tie 3-0, while Karim Benzema, who got Real off the mark on the weekend, is at 2/1 to score the first goal.

If APOEL do manage to sneak a goal then Brazillian striker Ailton is likely to be the man to get it. The striker has struck seven times in the Champions League already this season and, with Spain’s capital club having failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five La Liga matches, at 9/2 to score anytime, he could be worth consideration.

If Ailton scores the game’s first goal but Real go on to win the match then some attractive looking odds are available. Ailton to score first and Real to win 2-1 is available at 225/1, as is the Ailton and 3-1 scorecast selection.

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Three defeats so far for the Blues is hardly the start that fans were hoping for under new boss Andre Villas-Boas, with his side in danger of getting left behind the two Manchester clubs as they are already nine points behind the leaders going into the weekend’s round of matches.

There is, of course, still plenty of time to go in the title race but Chelsea cannot afford too many more slip-ups, with Carlo Ancelotti’s second place last year not enough to save him from the axe.

Liverpool themselves were reinvigorated by Kenny Dalglish’s appointment last January but expectations have risen following the huge outlay on players, which so far have not been met.

The Reds have lost just twice this season but are lying in sixth place in the table, three points behind Spurs in fifth who have a game in hand, although a victory on Sunday would see them draw level with currently fourth-placed Chelsea.

The Reds spent big up front in January on Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll, while Craig Bellamy was a summer acquisition, but goals have been a problem with just 14 from their opening 11 games.

This is particularly the case at Anfield with the unbeaten run masking the fact that they have won only two of six games in front of their own fans.

According to the stats, Suarez has had 51 shots in the Premier League this season but only found the back of the net on four occasions – although he has been unlucky in the sense that Liverpool have hit the woodwork a league-high of 10 times.

A current race-row involving Patrice Evra may not be the ideal situation for Suarez at the moment, although he will be going into the game on the back of becoming the first player to score four goals in an international for Uruguay – and is priced at 7/1 to open the scoring, 15/8 anytime.

On the other side is former Liverpool golden boy Torres – who is still trying to justify the £50m that Chelsea splashed out in acquiring his services on transfer deadline day last January – scoring just five goals in 30 appearances.

He failed to score on his debut for the Blues in this fixture last year but has hardly done himself any favours with his comments about his departure from Anfield earlier in the week.

Torres is a 5/1 chance to open the scoring in the match, although Didier Drogba is available again after recovering from an arm operation and the Ivorian is the 9/2 favourite.

Chelsea will not find it easy going as, despite their problems in front of goal, Liverpool have been miserly in defence with just 10 goals conceded and just 38 shots allowed on target, while goals have been hard to come by in this fixture as a whole as well – Under 2.5 goals in the Total Goals betting looks good value at 5/6.

Chelsea have failed to find the net in five of the last seven Premier League games and three of the last four at home against Liverpool, while one of the teams has kept a clean sheet in 10 of the last 11 meetings.

These two sides have met a whopping 28 times in all competitions since 2004, with Chelsea holding the edge with 12 wins to nine, but they have struggled of late and may fail to justify 5/6 favouritism – with Liverpool priced at 7/2 to upset the odds, and the draw on offer at 5/2.

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Manchester United v Chelsea (7:45pm kick-off)

Chelsea will need to create history if they are to reach the last four of Europe’s top club competition, as no team has ever knocked United out of Europe having lost the first leg of a tie at home. Their hopes of upsetting the odds look to rest on the shoulders of one man……Fernando Torres.

The Spanish international has yet to score for the Blues since his headline-making £50million January move from Liverpool and looks a shadow of the player we know he is. But his record at Old Trafford is decent – with two goals in five appearances at United’s home – and he has terrorised Nemanja Vidic on several occasions.

The United backline is strong and, although Didier Drogba scored in Chelsea’s league win at United last season, can and have coped with the Ivorian in the past….it’s the pace of Torres that will worry them.

Due to his recent form, you would have to give Vidic, Rio Ferdinand and co every chance of shackling the Spaniard, but if he clicks then he could produce a night to remember for Carlo Ancelotti (Utd 23/20, Draw 9/4, Chelsea 9/4 – Match Betting).

At the other end of the pitch, Wayne Rooney will be out champing at the bit after being forced to sit out Saturday’s win against Fulham. With seven goals in his last eight games, the England striker can put the game beyond Chelsea with another top notch display.

Expect the second leg to be another tight affair, with Chelsea unlikely to over commit until late in the game, and the ‘Under 2.5 goals‘ market looks a decent bet at 4/7.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Barcelona (7:45 kick-off)

Forget one foot in the semis, Barca (Evs Outright Winners) have nine toes already in the last four following a 5-1 thumping of their Ukrainian opponents in the Nou Camp.

Pep Guardiola’s men were inspired in the first leg, in a game that could have quite easily seen 10 ten goals with a bagful of chances for both teams. The mounting fixture list could have a major bearing though on Tuesday’s clash, with Barca expected to make several changes.

The Catalan giants are expected to face Real Madrid four times in quick succession, in a La Liga clash, the Copa Del Rey final and then likely, in a two-legged Champions League semi-final. The manager will use his strong squad to full effect, starting with a tough trip to the Ukraine.

Andres Iniesta is suspended for Tuesday’s game and Shakhtar (23/10 to beat Barca on the night) could take full advantage, as they look to win a fifth consecutive Champions League home game in this season’s competition.

The home side have an 11-point lead in their domestic league and could claim a big scalp on Tuesday….even though Barca will still qualify.

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Torres has failed to score in the two appearances he has made for the Blues since his £50m move from Liverpool in the January transfer window.

The Spain international could not score past his former club or local rivals Fulham and will now have his next opportunity to open his Chelsea account at the Parken Stadoin on Tuesday night.

Chelsea are also likely to bring Michael Essien, Jose Bosingwa and Nicolas Anelka into the starting line-up for the game in Denmark.

The defending Premier League champions were given the most favourable draw of all the English teams left in Champions League and they will be expected to go into the second leg at Stamford bridge with a lead.

However, this game will not be easy considering Chelsea’s fragile confidence and inability to get results in recent weeks.

What is unclear is what shape FC Copenhagen will be in, as they have not played a competitive game for the last two months due to their winter break.

They are currently leading the Danish league but will they be rusty after the barren spell of games or will their fresh legs carry them through against the Blues? One thing is certain that they will be bang up for the contest and will make it difficult for Ancelotti’s men.

Despite their poor form, Chelsea should still have too much for Copenhagen to deal with, however, and don’t be surprised to see Torres (4/5 to score anytime) bag his first goal for his new club.

In Tuesday night’s other Champions League clash, Lyon host La Liga title-chasers Real Madrid (Lyon 16/5, draw 12/5, Real 5/6).

The Spanish giants have looked impressive in Europe this season despite being five points behind arch rivals Barcelona in their domestic league.

Real have only suffered one defeat in their last 11 outings in all competitions, though, and they will be full of confidence going into the game at the Stade Gerland.

However, Real have a poor record against Lyon and they will be tested again despite being determined to put their Champions League defeat against these opponents last season behind them.

Lyon will be difficult to beat at home but they will have to get something out of the game on Tuesday if they want to stand any chance of progressing in the tournament.

The French side are currently four points off top place in Ligue 1 and are themselves in good form, with only one loss in their last 17 games in all competition.

However with the likes of Ronaldo, Kaka, Angel Di Maria and former Lyon star Karim Benzema all  in good form, Real should have a lead going into the second leg at the Santiago Bernabeu.

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Chelsea v Liverpool

All roads lead to west London this weekend and the word on everyone’s lips is Torres. Having completed a dramatic £50million switch to the Blues on transfer deadline day on Monday, it seems fitting the first club he would face is Liverpool. The 26-year-old is 10/3 to score anytime against the Reds and it seems inevitable he will end up on the scoresheet.

Chelsea boss Carlo Ancelotti has said he is undecided as to whether to start Torres but, after splashing out £50million, owner Roman Abramovich will want to see his latest acquisition on show. The reigning Premier League champions are odds on to beat Liverpool given their recent revival. However, anyone who has watched Chelsea recently will know they are nowhere near the side that won the title last season.

Liverpool have won just twice on the road all season and, Sunderland’s shock win at Stamford Bridge aside, Chelsea have been as strong as ever at home. Chelsea have to win to keep pace with league leaders Manchester United or risk falling further than ten points behind. On the flip side its just as important the Reds win to close the gap on the last Champions League qualification spot, currently held by Chelsea.

The Reds have one of their replacements for Torres ready to make his first start in the form of Luis Suarez and he has already opened his account, coming off the bench to score against Stoke in midweek. If you fancy both Suarez and Torres to score then Tote are offering that special at 6/1.

Its tough to look beyond Chelsea this weekend and with little value in the 90 minutes market, a best bet could be Torres to score and Chelsea to win at 13/8.

Birmingham v West Ham

Sunday’s first game at Upton Park has been overshadowed somewhat by proceedings at Stamford Bridge but is no less important for two sides battling to beat the drop. Its been just 11 days since the two clubs last went head-to-head as Blues managed to turn around a two goal deficit to beat the Hammers in the semi-final of the Carling Cup.

Hammers fans will be hoping the players can use their bitter defeat to Birmingham as motivation to gain revenge and leapfrog the St Andrew’s outfit out of the relegation zone. Both teams are on 24 points after the midweek matches, picking up valuable results. West Ham’s win at Blackpool was a rare away success for Avram Grant’s side on the road and they look as though they are beginning to turn things around.

The signing of Robbie Keane on loan could prove to be a stroke of genius if he keeps them up. The Republic of Ireland skipper is 9/2 to score first and you wouldn’t bet against him getting his first home goal after his strike on Wednesday.

While West Ham look as though they have plenty of goals in them, Birmingham have struggled to hit the target on a regular basis and their fans will fear that this weakness could cost them their place in the top flight.

Blues are 5/2 to win at Upton Park but it looks beyond them and the Hammers to repeat their Carling Cup first leg win of 2-1 at 15/2 could be the bet to go for in this one.

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Liverpool

The Spain international World Cup-winning hitman has endured a difficult campaign to date due to a lack of form following some injury problems which have blighted him since he underwent a knee operation in April.

However, Hodgson witnessed Torres put in a good shift against Rovers at Anfield and felt he looked a lot sharper, while his second goal of the season only heightened his belief that the former Atletico Madrid man could be set to hit top form.

Hodgson insists that Torres has always had the desire and will to do well for him since he replaced Rafa Benitez at Anfield in the summer, but claims the extra confidence the team are starting to show on the pitch is now having a positive impact on his game.

He added on LFC TV: “You do need, if you are going to have a good team, your good players in good form producing what they are capable of producing.

“With Fernando on Sunday we definitely saw that.

“I see it in training every day and I just hope he keeps going and we have a good few months of it.”

Torres will get a chance to add to his goals’ tally this weekend when the Reds travel to face Bolton at the Reebok Stadium on Sunday (Bolton 2/1, Liverpool 13/10, Draw 11/5 90 Minutes).

And Hodgson is looking for his side as a whole to secure a third Premier League win of the season and start pushing up the table (Liverpool 7/1 Top 4 Finish).

“The performance we gave in the second half against Everton and the whole of the game against Blackburn – that is what we need for the whole 90 minutes in the remaining 29 games.”

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