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Graham Hunter: Barcelona and Real Madrid can overcome tricky tests to set up this 5/2 La Liga acca

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Cordoba v Barcelona – Saturday, 3pm

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How Barcelona, and in particular Luis Enrique, view this game can be judged by the squad. Córdoba are relegated, having scored only 21 goals in their 34 games thus far. While the vast majority of people have been talking about Spain’s neck-and-neck run-in for the title this has been considered a ‘gimme’. Turn up, look at the ball-to-flag distance and collect the three points without having to putt.

Not Lucho. He sees a dogged rival in Real Madrid. He expects them to win at Sevilla. He sees a Córdoba free of any responsibility in this game, free to run till they drop and take risks if they choose too. He sees a Córdoba incapable of winning often but capable of only single goal defeats here to Valencia, Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid.

Thus despite the midweek visit of Bayern Munich to the Camp Nou, despite the tantalizing prospect of reaching the Champions League final in his first season the Asturian coach has named every one of his important first team players – not choosing to rest or protect one of them. Thus he chooses from: Ter Stegen, C. Bravo, Piqué, Rakitic, Busquets, Xavi, Pedro, Iniesta, Suárez, Messi, Neymar, Rafinha, Mascherano, Bartra, Alba Adriano, Alves Mathieu.

There’s a decent likelihood that Messi, Suárez and Neymar start up front although only a banker-bet that two of them do so. Luis Enrique argued on Friday:

“Taking the foot off the pedal now would be like the marathon runner who gets to 24 miles with a record time but then starts to walk. Until we achieve the objectives there’s no relaxing and the objectives are to win the trophies. The league is in play at Córdoba”

It’s all about attitude. If his players repeat that of their coach they’ll win. But might it be a struggle? Feasible. The instinct to save just a little for a midweek Champions League match is often wholly subconscious.
Will Barcelona’s players conquer it? The guide so far this season says: ‘Yes’.
Much is being made of the fact that this is Barcelona’s first Liga visit to Córdoba since an infamous 1-0 defeat, held to have been scandalously reffed, in 1972 – a defeat which cost them the title.

Luis Enrique

I’m fairly sure 43 year old revenge won’t be a motif here, especially given the Cup tie here in 2012 [when Tito Vilanova put out a very strong side and only won 2-0 against the then Second Division side]
Córdoba coach Jose Antonio Romero reckons: “Anything can happen in a one-off game and we can’t take it as the starting idea that we’ll simply lose by 5-0. “I’ve beaten Barcelona in the Juvenil leagues and this is a dream come true”.

If his dream does come true then mark it as one of the biggest shocks in living memory. That would need Ghilas, Fede, Florin or Bebe to score.
Other than that bank on Suárez, Messi, Rakitic or Piqué to see Barcelona through, probably by two.

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Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao – Saturday, 5pm

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The only way to start to eye this up is to state that the confirmed absence of Aritz Aduriz doesn’t mean it’s impossible for Athletic to win at the Calderón – just far, far, far, far, far less likely.

Aduriz, club-trotter, has loved being home after careers at Valencia, Mallorca and Valladolid scoring at much closer to one ever other game compared to one in three the rest of his career.

This season he’s not only been Athletic’s leading scorer by far, he’s a true leader – and appears to be improving technically with every year over thirty which passes.

Ernesto Valverde, shorn of his best player, takes to the Spanish capital: Iraizoz, Toquero, Aurtenetxe, Laporte, San José, Iturraspe, Kike Sola, De Marcos, Bustinza, Iago Herrerín, Iraola, X.Etxeita, Mikel Rico, Gurpegi, Viguera, Guillermo, Unai López, Williams

Hidden in there is the truly forgotten man of Basque football, Gaizka Toquero who scored both in a 0-2 win the last time the Basques took three points at Atleti – back in 2011. I can’t confirm rumours that Valverde asked Matt Le Tissier to stay and play this weekend when he collected his ‘One Club Man’ award at the San Mames at the Basque derby this week.

Simeone can choose from Oblak, Moyá; Juanfran, Miranda, Giménez, Godín, Siqueira, Gámez; Arda, Raúl García, Tiago, Mario Suárez, Gabi, Saúl, Koke; Mandzukic, Raúl Jiménez, Fernando Torres and Griezmann.
Atleti have shown the pain of elimination from the Champions League with some stilted football – but they’ve kept on winning. Look for them to do that again via Griezmann, Mandzukic or Raul García. Should be a cracker, intense, no quarter asked or given – worth watching as well as having a punt on.

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Sevilla v Real Madrid – Saturday, 7pm

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The game of the weekend, potentially even of the season. And these meetings are complete roller-coasters.
Recent seasons have seen regular Sevilla home wins [seven of them since 2003] – this is a place where Real Madrid need to fear going. Yet los Blancos have also recorded two consecutive 2-6 Madrid wins when they made Los Rojiblancos look like cardboard cutouts – in May and December 2011. These are explosive, there are often red cards, the Nervion produces a volcanic atmosphere and it’s survival of the fittest. This time there are so many additional angles it’s hard to know where to begin.

Obviously the foremost is the fact that by kick-off Barcelona may well have increased their lead to five points.
IF they haven’t, IF they don’t dispatch Córdoba, then a win here would put Madrid top and completely in charge of their own destiny. Match Barça’s points from then on and it would be Madrid’s title.

Zidane with Ancelotti

Should Barça have won then this match reverts to being a referendum on whether Madrid have the ‘cojones’ to cling on at the top and force Barcelona to win at the Calderón in a couple of weeks time. Just for the record Madrid led 0-1 here last year and then lost 2-1 to two Carlos Bacca goals – the second of which was created by an utter peach of an assist from Ivan Rakitic who’s now at Barcelona.
Ironic. [NB it’s the same referee this weekend as then]

The other key thing which hangs on this match is that Valencia dropped two points in midweek at Rayo meaning that they and Sevilla are tied for the fourth Champions League place – separated only by Valencia’s favourable head-to-head. Unai Emery’s team need to keep on winning – starting here. A massive Uefa cash-pot is at stake.
It’s fifteen months and since they lost at home and their 41 points at the Sánchez Pizjuán is their second best ever – six off the all time record set in 2006. Two more points and they’ll have reached their highest ever Primera points total.

To the game. Sevilla kept Trémoulinas, Reyes, Mbia and Bacca clear of a booking at Eibar so all are free to play with Vitolo the only major injury doubt. Ancelotti has Bale back but does he displace Chicharito – all goals and assists in the last few weeks? [Bale on the bench more likely]

It’s tempting to call this a Bacca v Ronaldo shoot-out. The Colombian’s in his best ever season for goals and assists and won this fixture with a brace. Ronaldo has just one in five but his record against Sevilla…. 18 in 12 matches and seventeen of those in the last eight.

Madrid will probably use Ramos in midfield, he loves a headed goal, Sevilla love to nod a couple in themselves and Iker Casillas doesn’t thrive on dealing with an aerial assault. No sitting on the fence – not one of the three available results here would be a surprise, home win, away win, draw.

Perm from Ronaldo, Chicharito, Ramos or Mbia, Bacca, Iborra for your ‘anytime’ goals.
Look for goals galore, best bet a score draw but my guess is that Madrid, just, have the will and the way to keep their title challenge alive.

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Valencia v Eibar – Sunday, 8pm

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Don’t be fooled by the ‘big guys good at home, little guys weak on the road’ narrative here – there’s masses resting on this one. The little Basque team didn’t win hearts and minds earlier this season because they were cute and charming. Not a bit of it.

They played smart, organised football and were worth watching. They are still attempting to play quite nice football but like a first time Iron Man competitor nearing the tape most of their involuntary muscles are threatening to give way. Eibar haven’t won in 16 matches, have taken a single point on the road since mid January.

But the fact remains that they are alive in either a three, or perhaps four, team mini league fighting relegation. It’s between Depor, Almería, Eibar and possibly Levante. The Mestalla looks an unlikely place to unleash the beast inside – but they’ve nothing to lose.Eibar are like the guy in the old joke who takes a bath once a year every year whether he needs it or not.

The’ve scored five times in their last fifteen – a goal every three matches whether they need it or not.
Gaizka Garitano, who’s spent much of the week in the spotlight thanks to walking out of a press conference at Almería due to the moronic behaviour of a couple of local journos, won’t be pleased that Mikel Arruabarrena, probably his most reliable striker, is suspended.

The stress on Valencia to thump the visitors and assure themselves of three points grew exponentially after Los Che dropped two points at Rayo and let Sevilla right back into the race for fourth place.
Nuno Espirito Santo and his guys have been a real breath of fresh air in this league but their continuity depends on reaching the Champions League.

“The result at Rayo wasn’t what we wanted but playing that kind of football makes me sure we’ll win the remaining four matches and I’m not giving up on the fight to finish third”

is Nuno’s message.

Dani Parejo lost us bucks by missing his penalty at the Camp Nou the other week but keeps repaying faith with, by far, his best scoring season ever. Another in midweek. He, Paco Alcácer and Feghouli are all worth consideration – as is the feasibility of Valencia winning by two clear goals. One of these days, I hope, Eibar will convert neat, adventurous play into a win – but at the Mestalla? Doesn’t look likely.

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Espanyol and Barca to draw, Atletico and Real Madrid to win – 9/1

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Graham Hunter: Real and Barca to come through tricky tests with this 17/2 double

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FC Barcelona v Valencia, Saturday 3pm

At the Camp Nou, just over a year ago Valencia stuck their leg out and Barcelona tripped flat on their face.

Effectively it was the defeat which cost Barça the title.

A win would have seen them pipping Atleti to win the league on goals scored.

Barça led 1-0, they pulled back to 2-2 but ended up losing at home to Valencia for the first time since Luis Enrique played against them in autumn 2003.

Camp Nou

In fact Los Che’s previous six visits had all been defeats and they’d conceded a whopping 21 goals.

Paco Alcácer scored the winner that day and it may be worth noting that he has 3 in his last 5 since returning from injury and 12 for club and country this season.

Both Celta Vigo and Málaga have managed 0-1 wins at Camp Nou in the last few months – mainly by playing a terrific, but exhausting, pressing game which capitalises on one of those rare days when not only do Luis Enrique’s team make a single crucial mistake in defence but, somehow, look nervy and imprecise in front of goal.

So, if you fancy Valencia, how to calibrate your chances?

Last week in Sevilla Barcelona committed two pretty horrible mistakes, Claudio Bravo and Gerard Piqué ending up with fingerprints on the crimes, to toss away a 2-0 lead.

But in Paris on Wednesday, despite regularly gifting the ball to PSG, Barcelona finished devastatingly well.
It does feel like there’s been a drop in concentration in using the ball – perhaps Valencia will have their scoring chances.

Lionel Messi

FYI: Leo Messi has played Valencia twenty times scoring fifteen goals [nine of them at the Camp Nou]. However he’s only actually hit the net in eight of those twenty matches – ie less than half the time.

His goals come in clutches, sometimes threes and fours. Thus, if he scores and you’re ‘in-play’ you may fancy backing him to do so again?

FYI[ii]: Diego Alves has always loved testing himself against Barcelona. Not only was he super in Barcelona’s 90th minute away win earlier this season [Sergio Busquets] he has often played absolutely unbelievably at the Camp Nou. Is he good enough to thwart Messi, Suárez and Neymar??

FYI[iii] Kick off times really shouldn’t be important in a grown-up world but, hey, astrologists still make a damn fine living from making things up in the newspapers so the world’s not perfect. Ergo, the last time Barcelona lost at home it was a Saturday and the kick off time was 4pm Spanish.

Just like this….. Again, if you are on this match ‘in-play’ don’t be fooled into believing that if it’s a draw with just a couple of minutes left, and with a return Champions League quarter final coming up on Tuesday, that Barcelona will ‘settle’.

They only have a two point lead over Madrid and nothing, nothing at all, other than a win here will serve if they are going to win the title.

Valencia choose from: Diego Alves, Yoel, Cancelo, Barragán, Mustafi, Otamendi, Vezo, Orbán, Gayà, Javi Fuego, Felipe Augusto, Parejo, André Gomes, Feghouli, Rodrigo, De Paul, Negredo and Alcácer.

Neymar is back on goal form, Parejo’s worth a small investment, Alcácer too. Major pressure on the league leaders. None of the three results would be a shock but … perhaps Barcelona to demonstrate how much they want this title?

Hunter’s Tip: Both teams to score and Barcelona to win at 7/5 

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Deportivo v Atlético, Saturday 5pm

It’s a central theme of Atlético’s title-defence season – key players missing because of suspension.

Not disastrous here, only Gabi is out, but he’ll be followed by fellow midfielder Mario Suárez on Wednesday against Real Madrid. All of which means that a pretty remarkable story should keep growing.

Tiago said his goodbyes to fans and team mates after the Champions League final having failed to renew his contract with Atleti – a deal with Chelsea was as good as signed. But the Portuguese never put pen to paper, financial terms and his fear about how much playing time he’d get brought things to a grinding halt.

His agent got back in touch with Atleti and Diego Simeone insisted to the men in grey suits that he be re-hired.

Nice call Cholo. The Portuguese should start against Depor, he’s played 25 games in la Liga this season and, with five, is third top scorer for the reigning champions in their league defence.

It’s also his best goal total for eight years.

It may guide you that in six of the last seven Depor v Atleti fixtures at the Riazor there’s only been a single goal victory margin, or no goals at all.

Atleti choose from:
Moyá, Oblak, Godín, Siqueira, Gámez, Ansaldi, Juanfran, Miranda, Giménez, Tiago, Koke, Raúl García, Arda, Saúl, Cani, Griezmann, Raúl Jiménez and Fernando Torres.

No Mandzukic, no Mario, no Gabi – training suggests a likely XI of Oblak; Juanfran, Giménez, Godín, Gámez; Tiago; Raúl García, Koke, Saúl, Arda; Griezmann

New coach Victor Sánchez brings back Luisinho and Juan Domínguez but Helder Postiga’s still out.

Victor chooses from:
Lux, Manuel Pablo, Álex Bergantiños, José Rodríguez, Lucas Pérez, Medunjanin, Juan Domínguez, Juanfran, Sidnei, Fabricio, Cuenca, Laure, Luisinho, Toché, Cavaleiro, Oriol Riera, Lopo and Fariña.

Hard and hostile for Atleti here – might they drop two points in a score draw? Not an outlandish idea I’d say.

Hunter’s Tip: Both teams to score and the match to finish as a draw at 7/2

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Real Madrid v Málaga, Saturday 7pm

The Málaga brand of football is pretty much like what they used to say about Guinness – sound as a pound on home territory, doesn’t travel well.

How Málaga need a widget.

In fact the this mob have proved the old Robert Louis Stevenson thing about it being ‘better to travel hopefully than to arrive’

Santiago Bernabeu

In 32 visits to Real Madrid’s ground their happy northward journey has ended, embarrassingly, without a single victory.

However, might the fact that Madrid have the ‘Derbi’ against Atletico in the Champions League on Wednesday give Javi Gracia’s sprightly, fun-to-watch team an edge?

Might it, also, make them a bit more chipper about their chances that Karim Benzema, eight goals in his last nine appearances against Málaga, is out injured?

How much do an away win at the Camp Nou and a home draw with champions Atlético [last week] strip away the ‘beaten before we take the field’ malaise which affects so many of La Liga’s minor teams at the Bernabéu?

Those are some of your decisions.

“The fact that Málaga won at the Camp Nou has focussed our attention on them, it means we’ll not take them lightly” Carlo Ancelotti promised on Friday

In midweek Madrid were thwarted by a superb Jan Oblak performance. Without the 22 year old Slovakian performing heroics Carlo Ancelotti’s men would have scored three, maybe four times.

Is Carlos Kameni, a little flappy last week, capable of the same? Having made a habit of beating Madrid while at Espanyol [three of his first four game against them were wins] he’s tasted nothing but defeat in this fixture since joining Málaga.

Thirty two conceded in fifteen games. If this helps your punt you can be wholly sure that Gracia’s team will play to win. They’ll press, they’ll try to pass the ball forward whenever possible and they’ll not abandon their front-foot, passing game Cristiano Ronaldo I hate to emphasise what John Cleese would call ‘the bleedin’ obvious’ but Cristiano Ronaldo is your ‘go-to’ man here. One of his best records is against Málaga – 13 in 14 meetings.

Might Modric be a dark-horse ‘anytime’ bet? He was pinging the ball at goal in midweek – shooting boots on. Should be fun, should be open … should be a home win by a two goal margin.

Madrid choose from: Casillas, Keylor Navas, Pacheco: Varane, Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo, Carvajal, Arbeloa, Nacho: Kroos, James, Bale, Lucas Silva, Modric, Isco, Illarramendi, Ronaldo, Chicharito and Jesé.

Hunter’s Tip: Real Madrid to win by exactly 2 goals at 3/1

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Granada v Sevilla, Sunday 4pm

Glass half-full or half-empty for Unai Emery? After Thursday’s dramatic and draining comeback win over Zenit [2-1] he’ll be pleased not to have to travel too far to play Granada on Sunday. But he could probably have done without the extra ‘edge’ of an Andalusian derby against a team desperate to claw its way out of the relegation threat they face.

There’s also the extra buzz for what is an aggressive home support that Andalucia’s ‘big boys’, Sevilla, have only played at Los Cármenes three times in the last forty years. It’ll be like there’s a bounty on their heads. Regional pride will see to that.

Yet Granada have been surrender-monkeys recently – white flag at the Bernabéu when losing 9-1 a couple of weeks ago, a sea of white flags last weekend losing 3-0 at Almería

Your big evaluation here is: ‘when will Sevilla’s huge European exertions cost them a ‘hangover’ in La Liga?’

Not here you’d hope. This is a mighty season for Unai’s squad and it would be such a damp squib if it teetered now.

Bacca’s goal against Zenit made it seven scoring headers from Sevilla’s players in their last ten matches. It’d be logical if their second half impact won Denis Suárez and Mbia starting places on Sunday. Each of them, plus Aleix Vidal, might be worth backing.

Finally, Sevilla’s league season only has seven matches left. I don’t know if I can hold on that long without a lame Dick Emery joke. So long as they keep winning I won’t have to reach for …. ‘Ooh they are awful, but I like them…’

Hunter’s Tip: Sevilla -1 goal at 12/5

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Tricky ties await Brit trio

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Manchester United, Chelsea and Celtic get their Champions League group campaigns underway on Wednesday and, despite all three being at home, it could be a tricky evening for the British sides.

Manchester United v Galatasaray

United look to have the easiest task of the British sides on Wednesday as they welcome Turkish champions Gala to Old Trafford. Not that Sir Alex Ferguson will be taking anything for granted following last season’s disappointing group stage exit (United 2/7, Galatasaray 11/1, draw 9/2).

The Premier League runners-up were uncharacteristically sloppy in front of their own fans in this competition last term, drawing 3-3 at home to Benfica and 2-2 with Basel as well as just about seeing off minnows Otelul Galati 2-0.

Fergie has warned he will not tolerate those sort of below-par performances and results this season and, with that in mind, back United to kick off with a fairly convincing home win.

Saturday’s 4-0 success over Wigan was more like it from the Red Devils after a rusty start to the campaign which had seen them lose to Everton and then scramble wins over Fulham and Southampton. They have added firepower this year in the shape of Robin van Persie and Shinji Kagawa so Wayne Rooney’s continued absence should not be much of a problem.

Gala will approach the game determined to claim a point but the Turkish side are notoriously poor travellers and will not relish the trip, as their huge odds of 11/1 to win on the night prove.

Go for 2-0 to United in the correct score market at 5/1.

Chelsea v Juventus

The Blues appear to have a much-more daunting opener with the visit of Italian champions Juve a tougher one to call (Chelsea 11/10. Juve 11/4, draw 23/10).

Roberto Di Matteo’s side surprised many with their Champions League triumph last season and they will not want to give up their crown easily. At least progressing through the group should be fairly straightforward, with minnows FC Nordsjaelland in Group E along with Shakhtar Donetsk and Juve.

The European champions come into Wednesday’s clash in good early-season form, too, and they are unbeaten so far with the hard-fought 0-0 draw at QPR on Saturday the only blip domestically.

However, the 5-1 thumping at the hands of Atletico Madrid in the Super Cup is a reminder of how vulnerable they can still be and Di Matteo’s side, who finished last season sixth in the Premier Leauge, are very much a work in progress with several new arrivals bedding in.

Eden Hazard has looked a class act already, though, and will relish this test against one of Europe’s heavyweights so the Belgian is well worth backing in the score anytime market at 9/4.

Overall, Di Matteo’s men may well view a point as a decent outcome considering what lies ahead and a cagey 0-0 (11/2) could well be on the cards.

Celtic v Benfica

It has been a very strange start to the season in Scotland as Celtic have stumbled their way through their opening SPL games, not quite sure what to do with themselves now arch-rivals Rangers have left the top flight.

The Bhoys will surely come good in the league after a start that has seen them draw twice, scrape two narrow wins and then lose to St Johnstone at the weekend.

That last result may just have given away the fact that Celtic’s focus was on this tie rather than their early SPL struggles as they look to see off the Portuguese giants (Celtic 11/4, Benfica 11/10, draw 23/10).

Expect a passionate home support to lift Neil Lennon’s side and a home win is not out of the question, especially when you consider Benfica’s record away from home. They have also lost their two Champions League trips to Celtic to date, conceding four goals and failing to score a single one in the process, while they have only won four of their 26 Champions League away games in total.

Despite those stats, this remains a big test for the Hoops and another draw is predicted in what looks like being a tight encounter. 1-1 at 5/1 appeals to ensure a solid, if unspectacular start to Celtic’s European Cup campaign proper.

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Ukraine face tricky opener

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Co-hosts Ukraine take on Sweden in the second Group D match on Monday night with the support of the whole nation behind them. They are slight favourites to win this one but the Swedes have a habit of upsetting the odds (Ukraine 6/4, Draw 9/4, Sweden 2/1 – Match Betting).

Far from riding on a wave of optimism heading into their first European Championships, Ukraine coach Oleg Blokhin has all but written off his side’s chances before a ball has even been kicked.

He was brought back to the post for a second stint in March 2011 after leading his men to the quarter-finals of the 2006 World Cup during his first spell in charge but he has not really been able to inspire his charges second time around. Consequently, getting out of the group stage of the competition would be seen as a massive achievement (Ukraine 5/4 To Qualify).

The trouble for Blokhin is that he has inherited a team in transition, with several talented youngsters coming through who are not quite ready while veterans such as Andriy Shevchenko and Anatoliy Tymoshchuk are clearly past their best.

They have also had to prepare without any recent competitive football having qualified as hosts and the coach has used 40 players in his 15 months back in charge to try to find a winning combination.

He does not appear to have done that and, worryingly, slated both his defence and attack in an interview on Saturday.

The former Dynamo Kiev striker confessed that he has struggled to select an in-form striker, while making it clear that he has problems both in central defence and at full-back.

This does not leave much of the pitch to enthuse about and the scattergun approach to selection and tactics has left a number of players unsure of their role in the side (Ukraine – Exactly 0 points in group stage 10/1).

They tend to play a standard 4-4-2 which sometimes changes into a 4-5-1 during games and it would appear likely that, despite home advantage, goals will be at a premium against the Swedes and in their subsequent two group games.

One player to watch is 22-year-old Dynamo Kiev wide man Andriy Yarmolenko, who has now moved out onto the flank after starting life as a target man.

He has searing pace and has retained the ability to score, with seven goals from 20 appearances to date.

The St Petersburg-born youngster has been courted by, among others, AC Milan and could make a name for himself in the tournament.

Results for Ukraine in 2011 were not great – with four wins, five defeats and three draws – and they will need their best players to be at the top of their game if they are to advance to the last eight.

They have won three of their last four friendlies, however, and drew 3-3 with Germany in November last year.

But this is where it starts to get serious and Sweden are tournament football veterans, who always seem to make a nuisance of themselves in the group stage.

Erik Hamren has moulded his charges into a solid, hardworking side who are well-organised and difficult to break down.

They also like to play 4-4-2 and hit teams on the break and, in Zlatan Ibrahimovic, have one of the best strikers in Europe to put the ball in the back of the net.

The giant hit-man has enjoyed another excellent season with AC Milan and will be full of confidence going into Sweden’s opening match, despite never really having shown his true colours on the biggest international stage.

He does have an excellent scoring record for the Swedes with 31 strikes in 77 appearances but he will need a solid tournament this time around to silence the doubters, with age not on his side.

Lyon’s left-footed midfielder Kim Kallstrom should provide Ibrahimovic with the service he needs as he was credited with seven assists during qualifying, while chipping in with three goals of his own.

If he can find his talismanic team-mate in the box then the Swedes will be a goal threat.

Former Bolton star Johan Elmander is likely to be the second striker and, while he is not as prolific in front of goal as his esteemed strike partner, he is a vastly experienced player and will not be fazed by facing the hosts on their own patch.

Sunderland’s Sebastian Larsson could have a big say in proceedings with his ability to score from set plays, while he will also provide decent crosses for the big man up front.

Midfielder Rasmus Elm has the x-factor needed to unlock defences and has been watched by several top European sides over the past 12 months.

Like Larsson, he is a dead-ball specialist but also has the ability to beat players and pick out a pass – he will pull the strings in the middle of the park for Hamren’s side.

Eight wins and two defeats in qualifying was a decent return and they will be confident of getting out of a group that contains England, who have always struggled to beat the Swedes, and a France side that can blow hot and cold.

Consistency is the Swedes’ main strength as they rarely get pummelled, with only Holland giving them a drubbing in qualifying and, despite Ukraine’s home advantage, they should get at least a point out of this one.

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Tricky Seaside trip for Hammers

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There are three important matches in the Championship on Tuesday evening which will all have a big impact on the promotion race, with the pick of the games coming at Bloomfield Road where Blackpool and West Ham go head to head.

Blackpool v West Ham (8pm)

West Ham boss Sam Allardyce takes his side north to the Lancashire coast for a tough assignment against Ian Holloway’s Tangerines looking to make a swift return to the top of the Championship after Southampton knocked them off their perch with a 4-0 win against Derby on Saturday.

However, they will have to try and pick up the maximum points without the suspended pairing of skipper Kevin Nolan and Matt Taylor following their respective recent red cards.

It will be a blow for Allardyce, who has seen his side struggle on the road in recent weeks as they have won one, drawn one and lost four of their previous six away matches.

Blackpool, who are five points behind West Ham going into the game and can go third with a win, are unbeaten in their last six on home soil with three wins and three draws, so will no doubt be confident ahead of this showdown.

The Seasiders have a much better record in the overall meetings between the two sides, but the Hammers thrashed them 4-0 at Upton Park earlier in this campaign and triumphed 3-1 in last season’s Premier League clash at the same venue.

A close match looks to be in the offing and it is difficult to pick a winner so a draw is perhaps the likely outcome.

Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 9/4
Value Bet: West Ham/Draw HT/FT @ 12/1

Barnsley v Birmingham (7.45pm)

Chris Hughton takes his high-flying Blues to South Yorkshire looking to cement their place in the play-off places with three points following an impressive 1-1 draw at Chelsea in the fifth round of the FA Cup on Saturday.

A win could take Birmingham up to third if Blackpool fail to defeat West Ham and they head to Oakwell in great form on the road with four wins from their last six outings, with 17 goals scored and just three conceded.

It won’t be easy against Keith Hill’s Tykes, who defeated crisis club Portsmouth 2-0 on Saturday and are set to hand Stephen Dawson and David Cotterill first appearances.

Barnsley are in mid-table and have won three and lost three of their last six at home so it could be a case of waiting to see which team turns up on the night.

Regardless of that, we suggest the Blues will have too much for the Yorkshiremen and should continue their march up the Championship table.

Prediction: Away Win 90 Minutes @ 11/10
Value Bet: Birmingham To Win 3-1 Correct Score @ 16/1

Millwall v Middlesbrough (7.45pm)

Middlesbrough head down to south London refreshed following a weekend off and no doubt buoyed by their first win of 2012 against Nottingham Forest last Tuesday which has left them handily placed in eighth spot and just one point off the play-off places.

Tony Mowbray’s side had been in the top six all season until a disastrous January saw them slip down the Championship table.

However, Boro seem to have settled the ship of late with the win against Forest following on from draws against Crystal Palace and Leicester in the league.

Barry Robson is set to return from a hand injury and could replace midfielder Kevin Thomson who starts a two-match suspension after his red card against Forest.

The game will come too soon for Nicky Bailey, while Scott McDonald is a long-term absentee with a knee injury.

Millwall come into the game on the back of their FA Cup fifth-round defeat at the hands of Bolton at the New Den looking for a win to move nine points clear of the relegation places.

However, with just one win and two draws from their last six in all competitions on home soil it is not good reading for Kenny Jackett’s men.

The Londoners are boosted by their great overall record against Boro, with 13 home wins and only four defeats from 23 previous home encounters. But Boro will take comfort from their 3-2 win in last season’s corresponding fixture.

Another difficult game to call and, with both sides being amongst the Championship’s draw specialists, it would not be a surprise if they share the spoils on Tuesday.

Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 9/4
 Value Bet: 1-1 Draw Correct Score @ 11/2

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Top trio face tricky trips

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Saturday’s round of Championship matches sees the division’s top three sides, Southampton, West Ham and Cardiff, all face winnable but potentially tricky trips against teams scrapping it out at the wrong end of the table and we assess their chances of picking up maximum points.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST V SOUTHAMPTON (3pm)

We start our treble for the weekend at the City Ground where Nigel Adkins takes his league leaders looking for three points which would keep their noses just in front in the battle for promotion to the Premier League, with the Saints 4/6 with Totesport to go up in April.

The Saints have struggled over the past two months with their five-point lead being whittled down to a goal difference advantage over West Ham following just two wins in eight, while Cardiff and Middlesbrough are just two points behind them.

Adkins will be boosted by the return of first-choice goalkeeper Kelvin Davis, right-back Frazer Richardson and strike duo Guly do Prado and David Connolly, but defender Jose Fonte is a doubt and Richard Chaplow is definitely out.

Forest defeated Ipswich 3-2 at Portman Road in their last league outing to leave them in the third relegation place and two points adrift of safety.

Boss Steve Cotterill, who should have striker Dexter Blackstock and midfielder Paul Anderson in contention to play, will hope that win will boost his side going into the match and count on Forest’s good home record against the Saints, who they have not failed to score against at the City ground for 26 years, to stand them in good stead.

But, four straight league defeats at home and no goals in front of their fans since mid-November means the Forest players will have to work hard to reverse that shocking run this weekend.

However, with Southampton on a poor run of late and Forest boosted by their win at Ipswich, we fancy a possible result of sorts for the hosts.

Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 12/5
Value Bet: Draw 1-1 Correct Score @ 11/2

PORTSMOUTH V WEST HAM (3pm)

Sam Allardyce takes his high-flying Hammers to Fratton Park for a tough clash against a Portsmouth side which has dragged itself clear of the relegation battle under new boss Michael Appleton.

Pompey are now seven points clear of the bottom three and go in search of a fourth win in seven league matches and fourth on home soil since Appleton replaced Steve Cotterill as boss.

Portsmouth’s plans have not been helped by injury doubts over Ricardo Rocha, Hayden Mullins and Luke Varney.

West Ham arrive with the best away record in the Championship with 24 points gained and only 11 goals conceded from 13 outings.

However, their recent form has dipped with just two wins in six league games and a 1-0 FA Cup defeat at Sheffield Wednesday last weekend.

Allardyce should have a strong squad to select from as only Guy Demel and midfielder Matt Taylor are absent due to injury.

The two sides have won 14 games each from their previous 34 meetings and drawn the other six so games between them usually have a winner.

But with Pompey being strong a home and the Hammers not firing on all cylinders of late it is difficult to pick one above the other on this occasions.

Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 23/10
Value Bet: Portsmouth/Draw HT/FT @ 14/1

DONCASTER V CARDIFF (3pm)

Like the Forest-Southampton affair, this is another bottom versus top encounter at the Keepmoat Stadium which should see third-placed Cardiff City come out on top, but might not be a foregone conclusion.

Dean Saunders’ Rovers find themselves second-bottom in the table and four points adrift of safety, although they have won four of their last seven league games – three of them at home against strong opposition in the shape of table-toppers Southampton, Leicester and Barnsley.

Rovers should also be boosted by the availability of new signing Damien Plessis, while fit-again trio Herald Goulon, Martin Woods and John Oster should also be in the running to feature.

Cardiff arrive on the back of successive away defeats in the Carling Cup and FA Cup, but chasing a third successive league win.

Malky Mackay’s side have only lost one Championship game in 13 – against Middlesbrough on December 17 – and have seven draws on their travels which is more than any other side in the league.

However, despite being without injured duo, defender Kevin McNaughton and striker Rudy Gestede, they boast a good record against Rovers.

Three successive wins and nine goals in their recent matches not to mention 16 wins from their 31 league encounters over the years to Doncaster’s five suggests the Bluebirds have the Indian sign over their hosts.

And, with a chance of going to the top of the table up for grabs depending on other results, the men from South Wales should have too much for Rovers.

Prediction: Away Win 90 Minutes @ 21/20
Value Bet: Miller K 1st Goal Cardiff To Win 2-0 Scorecast @ 28/1

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Tricky NYE test for Hammers

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Saturday sees the final round of Championship matches of 2011 and the sides jostling for position at the top of the table will all be desperate to end the year on a high. We’ll take a look at four key games and try to pick a winner or two (West Ham 6/4 – Championship Outright).

Derby County v West Ham United

The doom and gloom of last season’s relegation now looks to be a thing of the past as the Hammers are sitting pretty in second place in the Championship table with an excellent chance of returning to the top flight at the first attempt.

A win at Pride Park will mean they will probably begin 2012 in the second automatic promotion spot behind Southampton and with it all to play for over the second half of the campaign.

But Sam Allardyce’s men have not been at their best over the past five games with two wins, one draw and two defeats and so Derby can use that as motivation.

They have been good on their travels, however, with seven wins away from Upton Park already and will look to turn over a Derby side who are stuck right in the middle of the chasing pack in 14th spot with 31 points.

The league is so congested that just six points separate sixth from 16th and so any of the sides, Derby included, could make a run for the play-offs next year.

Nigel Clough’s side have also taken seven points from a possible 15 but have won their last two at home and the hard-fought 1-0 victory over Leeds last time out proves that they can mix it with the top teams on their day.

Allardyce is a canny manager and will probably see this as tough encounter and it would be no surprise to see the sides share the points on Saturday.

Odds: Derby 11/4, West Ham Evens, draw 12/5

Middlesbrough v Peterborough

Whatever happens against Posh, Boro will be in the top three at the turn of the year and that is an amazing feat considering how many points they have thrown away at home, with late goals haunting them all season.

Tony Mowbray’s charges have won only five games at the Riverside, with six draws, and it is their away form that has kept them flying high with seven wins on the road this term.

But they face Darren Ferguson’s charges on Teesside in this one and will want to make it three straight victories on their own patch after beating both Brighton and Hull 1-0.

The Boro have won their last four and the confidence and crowds appear to be returning to the former top-flight side and they should be able to take care of a Peterborough side who have already lost six times away from home this term.

The sides drew 1-1 at London Road back in November and, after losing a couple of close ones, last season’s League One play-off winners have taken seven out of nine points and will be looking to make it three successive wins on Saturday.

Fergie’s men do score goals away from home but Boro have conceded just nine at home in the first half of the campaign and so it looks set to be a tight encounter, with a narrow home victory the verdict.

Odds: Middlesbrough 4/6, Peterborough 4/1, draw 11/4

Nottingham Forest v Cardiff City

Cardiff have suffered more than their fair share of play-off heartache in recent seasons but continue to challenge at the right end of the table as they head into the weekend’s clash at the City Ground.

The Bluebirds’ long-suffering fans look set for another roller-coaster ride up to and into the play-offs and they will want to take something from their final encounter of the year to set them up for next year’s promotion push.

Recent form has been mixed and they have failed to win any of the past three matches, but 1-0 victories over Birmingham and Forest just a few weeks ago have kept them in the top four.

Malky Mackay’s men are the draw specialists away from home with seven already but they will have three points on their mind when they face a Forest outfit devoid of confidence and staring up at the majority of the Championship sides.

The East Midlanders have not won in six attempts and have taken just one point from a possible 18 since beating Ipswich 3-2 on November 19 and are currently 22nd out of the 24 teams in the standings.

Steve Cotterill’s men have lost their last three home games and have never really recovered from the 4-0 thumping they received at the hands of Leeds United.

Cardiff may have only won three times away from home but they are tipped to add to that tally this weekend.

Odds: Forest 7/4, Cardiff 8/5, draw 11/5

Burnley v Hull

Hull are one of the form teams in the division with four successive wins before coming unstuck late on at Middlesbrough last time out.

They have garnered 39 points from their first 23 games and sit comfortably in the play-off zone as 2012 approaches.

It has been case of all or nothing for Nick Barmby’s side this season with 12 wins, eight defeats and only three draws to date – all away from home.

So the likelihood is that they will head over the Pennines in search of all three points to keep up their momentum and they will face a Burnley side who have not enjoyed the best of times at Turf Moor this season.

The home fans have witnessed just four wins, with five defeats, and it is the six wins on their travels that has kept Eddie Howe’s men in the top half of the table.

Scoring goals at home has not been a problem for the Clarets with 21 strikes already but they have let in 15 and that is something Barmby will have taken note of ahead of the match.

Hull do not score many away from their own patch and so this one has all the makings of a draw.

Odds: Burnley 11/8, Hull 9/4, draw 23/10

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