Birmingham’s 54th game of a already jam-packed season sees them travel to Lancashire on Tuesday to take on Eddie Howe’s Burnley, who are hoping to end a disappointing season on a high.
Following last season’s relegation, this campaign has seen a period of rapid change at Birmingham, with a raft of players taking their Premier League wages elsewhere and even their manager, Alex McLeish, jumping ship to their near neighbours Aston Villa.
With last season’s Carling Cup success meaning Europa League football this season, new manager Chris Hughton has had to juggle a busy domestic and European schedule as well as rebuilding a squad dismantled following relegation.
It is to his credit then that the Blues are well in contention for a play-off place. Last weekend’s 3-1 win at Doncaster lifted them fourth, with race for a top six spot becoming increasingly frantic.
Burnley, meanwhile, will be disappointed not to have been competing at the top end of the Championship this year. They were in the Premier League only two years ago but have failed to re-adapt to the rigours of the second tier since relegation.
Manager Brian Laws was sacked in December 2010 after a poor start to that campaign and highly-rated boss Eddie Howe was brought in from Bournemouth to guide the Clarets up the table. An eventual 8th place finish raised hopes of a sustained promotion push this campaign.
However, they find themselves well out of the play-off picture down in 16th place – well clear of relegation trouble but 10 points off the top six.
They will go into this game full of confidence after a 5-1 hammering of relegation-threatened Portsmouth at Fratton Park on Saturday – their first win in eight games – as Howe aims for a strong finish to a below par year.
Their form at Turf Moor is a concern and a principal reason for their lowly league position. Only four sides have won less games on their home ground the Burnley this season. They have, however, only conceded 22 goals on home turf, with only two sides in the bottom half conceding less.
Those stats therefore would point to a narrow Birmingham victory but it pays to note that the Midlanders have built their promotion challenge on solid home form rather than away results; with 11 wins, eight draws and just one defeat at St Andrew’s this season. On the road they have already lost nine games – more than any other side in the top ten.
With poor home form meeting poor away form, making an accurate forecast is tricky, but with the season reaching its conclusion, City’s push for the play-offs could prove decisive.
Their spot in the play-off places is only secured by goal difference, with Blackpool, Brighton and Middlesbrough all joining the Blues on 63 points. Therefore the chance to move three points clear is one City will be loathed to turn down.
Therefore our tip is a narrow 1-0 to the Blues priced at 6/1, with the draw/Birmingham HT/FT forecast also worth considering at 9/2.
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