Monthly Archives: January 2015

Graham Hunter: Ronaldo-less Real to kick up a 9/1 winner, Barca to sneak by at 8/1and the best of the rest

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Real Madrid v Real Sociedad, Saturday 3pm

You’d be hard-pressed to find any Real Sociedad supporters who call this their ‘lucky’ season, or regard the last few months with much affection at all.

However the Guinness Book of Records stat that they’ve beaten Real Madrid, Atlético and Barcelona using three different coaches can show up a wee four-leaved clover effect if you look a little closer.

In the second game of the Liga season La Real went 2-0 down at home to Madrid before winning 4-2 – in a match where Cristiano Ronaldo was missing, injured.

By the time Asier Santana succeeded Jagoba Arrasate it was Spanish champions Atlético who were beaten – 2-1 having been behind by a goal.

Further examination is that La Real beat a ten-man team thanks to Guilherme Siquiera’s red card five minutes after half time.

Then, finally, Barcelona are put to the sword. The 1-0 win is David Moyes “happiest day” in football.

David Moyes

But, again, fate intervenes. Luis Enrique drops Leo Messi, Neymar, Dani Alves, Ivan Rakitic and Gerard Piqué all of whom you’d call automatic first team certainties.

Now it’s Madrid away and Ronaldo gets himself sent off so he’ll be missing the return fixture at the Santiago Bernabéu.

A wee hint that La Real are fated to pull off another almighty shock? Compared to all the other wins this would be the earth-shaker.

The Basques haven’t won at the Bernabéu since 2004 and the only player or sub on either of the team sheets from that day who’s even still at his club is Xabi Prieto. In fact the man who won last week’s Basque derbi against Eibar with that bizarre looping header also scored that day.

I suggest backing the 31 year old now if for no other reason than one of the more remarkable statistical scoring anomalies I’ve ever seen. Not prolific, Prieto has nevertheless scored at least three times as many goals against Madrid as against any other team in his long career. A maximum of three against anyone else, nine [in 14 games] against what is theoretically his most difficult opponent in Spain. Ronaldo has tended to be the missing element in Madrid’s defeats this season. Absent for the loss to La Real, benched for two defeats against Atlético. Whether him being out is sufficient to make a slightly tired-looking Madrid lose at home to a side which isn’t capable of many goals needs to be treated with skepticism. Geronimo Rulli has been an absolute diamond for David Moyes since he promoted the young Argentinian keeper but he’ll need to be superb if La Real are to pinch a draw. As will Iñigo Martínez who I suspect is playing for a move to Madrid at the end of the season. Odds against it but football’s a funny old game. 3-1 the European Champions. Benzema [4 in 7 and every one of them at the Bernabéu] loves a goal against the Txuri-Urdin.

  • Graham’s Bet: Real Madrid to win 3-1 at 9/1

Eibar v Atlético Madrid, Saturday 5pm

I’d say that Diego Simeone likes a moan … but he knows where I live.

Still, perhaps he has a case. This trip to the hostile Basque country will be Atlético’s ninth game in January having played eight, won five, lost three [to Barcelona], scored 11 and conceded nine. But I reckon there are other stats which are of equal concern to that narrow +goals tally.

Last season Atleti only saw two reds and 100 yellows in 46 League and Copa matches.

This season, in only 26 League and Copa matches they’ve seen five reds and 89 yellows. Vastly worse discipline.

Gabi [sent off in midweek] is already suspended this weekend for his fifth booking. Diego Godín, suspended for the last two games, returns against Eibar. But, here’s the rub.

At half time against Barcelona Diego Simeone opted not to chase the tie, not to chase the three goals they required in order to save his team’s legs, lungs and potentially save them more disciplinary problems. [The last bit didn’t work].

Why? Because he had to now give priority to the upcoming chances of retaining the league and reaching the Champions League final once again. He knows his players are flagging – mentally and physically. So, what will he do here selection-wise? Next weekend is the Madrid derbi our sixth of the season [Atleti winning 3 so far]. It’s at the Calderón and it’s imperative they win to close the gap at the top. But he has several players one booking away from a suspension against Madrid – Arda, Juanfran, Miranda and Raúl Garcia. It must worry Atleti fans and Atleti backers that their discipline has gone to pot.

Ipurua Municipal Stadium

So, back to his moans. The defeat to Barcelona finished at about 11pm on Wednesday this match kicks off 6pm Saturday. The Argentinian genuinely thought that if it were played on Sunday the extra recuperation for his players could be vital. So, to put faith in them or to back them to drop points?

Mandzukic didn’t play midweek so he must start. Griezmann was withdrawn at half time so ditto. Back either one for a goal. Both teams to score I reckon but Eibar …

This is virgin territory for them. There’s never been a Primera Division meeting between Eibar and Atlético at Ipurua. Two second division meetings yielded a win each – the first for Eibar robbing Atleti of a chance to get back to the top division, the second a 3-0 win starring Luis Aragonés as Atleti coach, Mono Burgos in goal and a very young Fernando Torres up front. Gaizka Garitano, now their coach, played for the Basques that day. Eibar don’t bend down for anyone and even made it tough for Atleti at the Calderón earlier in the season. Manu Del Moral has found the net easily in recent weeks. Worth a look. Okay, the champions might well win this, but it’s a banana-skin fixture.

  • Graham’s Bet: Both teams to score at 6/5

Barcelona v Villarreal,Sunday 8pm

Memories, memories. This has become one of Spain’s great fixtures. Overflowing with football. And the threat that the fluorescent boys will outshine the Blaugrana boys. From spring 2003 to spring 2005 across five matches Villarreal won three times and Barça managed two points out of fifteen. From April 2007 until January 2010, across six meetings, Villarreal won three and Barça only managed five points out of a possible eighteen. However not since mid 2008 when Jon Dahl Tomasson scored the winner have Villarreal taken three points at the Camp Nou. Those are all the stone-cold facts. Now for the coulda-woulda-shoulda.

Camp Nou

At the start of the season the Yellow Submarine did everything but torpedo Barcelona. They made more, better quality chances and Luis Enrique’s fledgling team got off the hook – particularly when Messi made the late winner for young Sandro.

Lumps were kicked out of some Barcelona players in midweek so you’d expect Xavi to start [might well be worth an anytime goal], perhaps Pedro too. Villarreal play such quick, attacking football that them scoring should be no shock – perm from Cheyshev, Musacchio and Vietto. But Barcelona to win … just. 2-1

  • Graham’s Bet: Barcelona to win 2-1 at 8/1

Málaga v Valencia, Monday 7.45pm

The seaside team against the see-saw team. Following their barnstorming win over Sevilla last week [as predicted] the emphasis is on Valencia to rid themselves of their biggest current flaw. Particularly away from home a step forward always seems to be followed by two backwards. For example, Valencia dismantle Spanish champions Atlético then lose, heavily, to Deportivo La Coruña who’ve recently shipped in eight goals at home to Madrid.

They give the the excellent Villarreal a bit of a doing but then take one point out of nine against Athletic, Levante and Barcelona. Even before crashing out of the Cup, Valencia win at Rayo but then concede four at home to the same team and only just manage to claw their way back into the tie having trailed 5-3 at home. Is it their mentality? Is it the fact that this is an almost wholly new team constructed at high speed this summer? They, unlike Cup quarter finalists Málaga, have had a free week to prepare and should be firing on all cylinders. As for other business, things could barely be better.

Getafe have stumped up the €600k they owed Los Che, Antonio Barragán and Pablo Piatti are both nearly fit again and Paco Alcácer just signed a new deal until 2020. This is a tie they simply must win and they have fourteen Liga scorers to choose from. But look to Parejo in the best scoring form of his career, Alcácer and Negredo to assure that.

Javi Gracia

As for Málaga their elimination at Athletic in the Cup leaves a clear stat emerging. Having scored in every single match since September Javi Gracia’s team have now failed to score in three of their last four matches. In La Liga Samuel Garcia and Amrabat are joint top scorers with just four. Gracia’s team look skilled, as if they have an ‘identity’ but they also look flat and short on gas.

This is a match which won’t be easy for Los Che, particularly given their weak away record, but it’s also one they MUST win if they are to remain credible challengers to quality for the Champions League next seasons. I take them to do that. 0-2

  • Graham’s Bet: Valencia to win 2-0 at 12/1 
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Graham Hunter: Get Real with his 10/1 correct score punt on Madrid plus an 8/1 treble involving Barca, Valencia and Fernando Torres

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Córdoba-Real Madrid Saturday 3pm

The kind of match to watch out for. Córdoba spent months looking like they weren’t cut out for la Primera and their cowardly President sacked Albert Ferrer by emissary, and then text, rather than be brave enough to tell him to his face.

A pox on him I say.

When the Andaluz side lost heavily at the Camp Nou in December, the players got the mother and father and next door neighbour of all rollickings from their flint-hard aggressive coach, Miroslav Djukic who then told the world in general that his lads lacked ‘cojones’ and had simply turned up to swap shirts with the Barcelona stars.

At that stage they’d won just once and were in free-fall. Since the tongue-lashing they’ve picked up seven of the available nine points.

The European champions have had a week of dedicated training and preparation thanks to being out of la Copa – but these games, I guess, are the kind of David v Goliath moments when a small side desperate to stave off relegation sometimes somehow catches the big-guy complacent and dozy.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

If, and I stress IF, that’s your considered view on this test for Carlo Ancelotti’s mob then try this.

Nabil Ghilas is the striker Algeria left behind when they went to the Cup of Nations and he’s got a bee in his bonnet about it.

I’d have loved to have defend my country’s colours but since I moved to Spain they’ve ignored me and now I’m set on scoring against Madrid and winning to show them what I can do. I’ve shed six kilos since the start of the season and right now I’d not say that it’s a dream to score against Iker Casillas because when I’m on the pitch and in form I always believe I can beat anyone.

He’s top scorer with five – one of which won Córdoba their first victory away at Athletic Bilbao for 42 years.

But the two who stand out, quality-wise, are the pair who combined for last week’s 10-second goal against Eibar. Fede Cartabia, a flamboyant Argentinian winger on loan from Valencia, made it for Florin Andone – a 21 year old Romanian brought up near Barcelona. Ferrer loved the kid’s attitude and emerging ability but injury hampered his development.

Now he’s got three goals in five games and although the impoverished club charges him €50 he can barely afford [he’s on youth team wages] for each match shirt he keeps – he’s going to swap this one with a Madrid star come hell or high water. Preferably having beaten them.

Ronaldo, (above) despite knee pain, should start, Pepe is still injured so Rafa Varane plays and you’d imagine that Sami Khedira should deputise for Isco, also injured [and a loss].

Usually you can stand on Honest Carlo’s words and the Italian reckons his team benefitted from a dedicated week, are ready to perform and, thus, it’s probably time to back Goliath to duck the slingshot. 1-3. NB, a promising 24 year old Portuguese striker, name of Bebé is in the Córdoba squad. They say United are interested….

Graham’s bet: Real Madrid to win 1-3 @ 10/1 

Luis-Enrique 840

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Elche-Barcelona Saturday 5pm

Keith Moon dies, Charlie Chaplin’s coffin is stolen and then recovered, Jamie Carragher, Gigi Buffon and Emile Heskey are all born, Dallas [JR, Sue Ellen and the Poison Dwarf] airs its first episode and Garfield is created.

  1. The last time Elche scored against Barcelona.

Nine games across those Buffon-Carragher-Heskey years, an aggregate of 30-0 in favour of the Blaugrana during those 810 minutes.

Three of those matches have come this season with a 3-0 league win on the opening day complemented by an aggregate 9-0 thumping in the Cup where Fran Escribá’s side was clinically dismantled.

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that if, again I stress that word really heavily, you see something to set your little gambler’s heart going pitter patter in the way Elche play then it must be because of Jonathas.

The Brazilian striker is reminiscent of Diego Costa, albeit in 2009/10 with Valladolid, when he’d remorselessly harass defenders when he didn’t have the ball and wage war on them when he did.

Jonathas, already 25, won’t turn into a world class finisher like Costa did but he has power, height, aggression and reasonable technique.

As for Barcelona – will they be the group which drew 0-0 at Getafe and Málaga and surrendered 1-0 at Real Sociedad? Or will they repeat the urgency, unity and dazzling skill of last week’s 4-0 win at Deportivo la Coruña?

Lionel Messi 2013

Despite a monumental challenge in Madrid this Wednesday against Atlético in the second leg of the Cup quarter final, Luis Enrique’s named a strong squad, not resting a single key player.

So, for those who like to bet in-play the things to look for would be a) does Luis Enrique’s team press and mob the opposition … or give off a ‘can’t be bothered’ Kevin the Teenager approach to that blue collar work? The other thing, which for purely alphabetical reasons we’ll call b) is: how fast is the ball moving between players.

Recently Messi (above) and Co. have made the football fizz and zip between them and opposition [Elche, Atlético and Depor] simply haven’t been able to cope.

It’s not a time to back against Messi, he’s hotter than Johnny Torch, but there’s value in looking at Alba and Pedro. Alba simply knows where the goal is and pops up every so often at longer odds while Pedro might get more game time than normal in order to assure one of the ‘big’ three up front is particularly fresh for the midweek tie at Atleti.

Maybe we’ll get memories of ’78 – ticker-tape, the Argentinian World Cup, the debuts of 3-2-1 and Grange Hill plus that last Elche goal against Barcelona [though this lot have only put two shots on target against the Blaugrana in 180 minutes this season].

But even though Escribá and gang organized a 0-0 nil in this fixture against a knackered Barça last May it’s tough to see them doing anything other than shipping two or more goals this time.

Graham’s bet: Barcelona (-2 on the handicap) @7/5

Fernando Torres 800

Atlético-Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 7pm

This, for the uninitiated, is a Madrid derby. For the initiated, it’s a game without the crackle of excitement it would usually merit because Rayo’s boisterous, noisy, loyal and generally admirable fans are boycotting the game.

Pity. Paco Jémez’s team made life objectionably difficult for the Spanish champions on the first match weekend of the season

But it’d be remiss of me not to remind you that the last time Rayo beat their neighbours they were coached by Juande Ramos, Kasey Keller was in goal and Jimmy ‘Pichichi’ Hasselbaink was up front for Los Colchoneros.

In fact let’s stick with Jémez for a minute. Utterly dedicated to the Pep Guardiola school of football his team are more ‘front-foot’ than the forward half of a pantomime horse.

There are hints that a) he’s well enough thought of at Atleti that he might be next in the door whenever Cholo Simeone leaves but also b) that whether or not the Atleti job is on offer this summer Jémez, who’s asking for a bigger contract raise in order to renew than Rayo want to pay, may hit the road anyway.

Suffice to say that he’ll ensure his team try to put on a show today. Future employers may be watching. [A nice little vignette is that Jesus Muñoz, Jémez’s assistant, was room-mate to Atleti legend Fernando Torres when El Niño first broke into the Atleti team. Wouldn’t you just bet on Torres repaying the friendship with a goal to break Rayo hearts?]

Anyway, not to repeat an earlier point, Simeone’s champions have a testing mid-week match with Barcelona and you’d bet he’ll shuffle the pack in terms of a starting XI.

Raul Garcia should start, might score, both Koke and Arda need to prove fitness. Diego Godín is suspended so Manucho might just get a chance to add to his headed goal at Real Sociedad last week.

But Rayo really want to get Leo Baptistao fit enough to play, and score, against his former team.

Graham’s bet: Fernando Torres to score anytime @ 5/6

Nuno Espirito Santo 840

Valencia v Sevilla, Sunday 8pm

A downright corker.

Two sides, both economically challenged, locked in mortal battle for the fourth place in La Liga which can win you anywhere from €10m to €50m of Champions League revenue.

You want more!

Two sides who fought to a standstill in the semi final of the Europa League last season, until Stéphane Mbia popped up with one of those ‘where the hell did that come from?’ second-leg-94th-minute-away-goal winners.

More? Mas? As they say here in Spain.

Both sides have recently been thumped by Espanyol in the Cup – Valencia 2-0, Sevilla 3-1.

And, finally, you still want even more? Okay. Unai Emery, currently the coach of Sevilla, Europa League holder and sitting cosily in fourth position, did terrific work in charge of Valencia, helped them make huge profits on footballers who thrived under him and kept on getting Los Che champions league qualification. But he was perpetually undervalued – by the club, by the media, by the fans. He’ll be given a sometimes frosty, sometimes hostile welcome back at the Mestalla on Sunday night.

Two wins apiece in the last four of this Liga fixture in Valencia and Mbia’s on international duty so not able to repeat his feat.

Bacca often repays a backer, Gameiro’s form is on the rise and Valencia have been conceding headed goals of late so you may like to look at Pareja or Carriço.

As for the home side, Negredo played for Sevilla long enough to know their weaknesses and score against them, Álcacer is long overdue reward for his good movement and Andre ‘I shoot on sight’ Gomes deserves to hit the net more often for his quality of movement and work rate. Draw looks good, but Sevilla look a tad tired. Valencia to win by one goal.

Graham’s bet: Valencia to win @ 6/5 or Valencia to win by exactly one goal @ 11/4

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Graham Hunter exclusive: Why La Liga is a two-horse race – but there may be a Cup in the new-look Atletico

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So the joke goes: an anteater walks into a bar wearing an Atlético Madrid scarf and the barman says to him: Why the long odds?.

You can take 14/1 off Paddy Power for los Rojiblancos to defend their title and while it’s probably common sense to offer them as third favourites against the vastly reinforced Barcelona and Madrid – those odds for a defending champion is an unusual sight.

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Particularly after the club splurged it’s greatest ever outlay on a single transfer binge – touching €98m gross once the delayed operation for Ángel Correa (whose heart anomaly needs to be defined and corrected) is completed.

Moreover,  this club, in recent years, must be in the top three of world football for spotting the right players, whether expensive, cheap or free, to be affordable, the right ‘fit’, winners and with a major sell-on value.

They have a fabulous track record over the last four or five years. Fabulous.

Thibaut-Courtois-800

To put flesh on this summer’s bones, manager Diego Simeone has added exciting French winger/second striker Antoine ‘Greased Lightning’ Griezmann, Mario Mandzukic, Correa, Benfica keeper Jan Oblak, Mexican striker Raúl Jimenéz, back-up keeper Miguel Ángel Moya and flying wing-back Guillherme Siqueira.

Of the 14 departures the most significant are Diego Costa, Thibaut Courtois (above), Filipe Luis, Diego Ribas and David Villa.

Putting the squeeze on …

Simeone (below) justifiably enjoys the reputation of a man-manager who is able to squeeze every last drop of attitude and commitment out of his footballers – something which may be handy with Mandzukic.

As such it’s feasible that he can handle the impact of this hemorrhage / transfusion operation of players in and out more quickly and more successfully than most.

The age and quality of their recruits plus the block of important footballers who’ve been retained (Miranda, Godín, Gabi, Koke, Juanfran, Raúl Garcia for example) suggests that there might be a trophy in Atlético.

Also that they should be capable of doing some damage to the ‘big two’ in one-on-one situations. But the title? No.

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

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To me the key is that Atlético won La Liga by a hairsbreadth last season.

Twelve single goal wins (18 across all competitions), clinching the title on the last day at the Camp Nou where just one more goal from Barcelona, in a weak season, would have given them the crown. Hairsbreadth.

Throughout the season they were constantly in debt to Costa for those single-goal victories – winners against Milan, Madrid, Levante and Athletic in Europe, La Liga and the Copa Del Rey are examples. Equally, Courtois saved them over and over and over again.

Up for the Cup …

Good luck to the armada of new strikers and to goalkeeper Oblak.

But it’s just not feasible for them to reproduce what Simeone has lost in a season when there’s been the disruption of 23 moves either in or out. Last summer I tipped Simeone’s lot as likely title winners.

Trust me again when I say nothing better than a cup competition this time around.

Barcelona-800

So, who else outside Los Rojiblancos MIGHT do damage to Madrid and Barça?

Last season was a finger in the eye to the ‘disengage brain and open mouth’ pundits who know nothing about La Liga. ‘Not competitive, two horse blah, blah, yawn, halfwit comment…’ was too often the stereotypical comment.

Beyond Atlético winning the title, Madrid and Barcelona lost points home and away to Levante, Real Sociedad, Granada, Getafe, Elche, Villarreal, Sevilla and Celta Vigo while the clubs who took points off BOTH the big two were Athletic, Osasuna, Valencia and Valladolid.

So 13 clubs were able to trip the big two up. Competitive.

Sadly, I believe, things have changed. Most weeks I’ll go into more depth about the individual clubs who catch the eye in La Liga but suffice to say now: Osasuna and Valladolid have been relegated, Levante, Getafe, Real Sociedad, Athletic, Sevilla, Celta, Atlético have all lost either their best or second best player and/or their manager.

Ronaldo celebrates

Elche and Granada might be around a similar level but won’t be putting their life savings on taking major scalps again while it’s arguable that Villarreal and Valencia might be more competitive this time around.

Madrid and Barcelona will inevitably slip up here and there but I’m convinced that, this season, it actually is a one v one battle to succeed 2014 champions Atlético.

You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter @BumperGraham

 

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Graham Hunter: What Manchester United fans should know about the signing of Angel di Maria

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When David Beckham was in his absolute pomp I remember Sir Alex Ferguson saying that he’d never sell him unless he could find and buy a better right-footed crosser from anywhere around Europe. The man Fergie was referring to at the time was at Real Madrid – Luis Figo. Figo often said it was a dream to play at Old Trafford but never realized that ‘sueño’.

Now I believe United have bought a left-footed version of the two men. I don’t believe Angel di Maria is inferior to Figo in any way, nor will I accept that the Argentinian’s crossing can’t compare to Beckham.

And talking of that Class of ’92, I’d argue that Di Maria echoes some things which will still have United fans crying into their pints of lager. Or their prawn sandwiches.

Roy-Keane-&-David-Beckham-840

Hungry like the wolf …

One of the things, beyond their talent and football intelligence, which linked Scholes, Giggs, Nicky Butt, Beckham and the Neville brothers was that this was ‘their’ club. They fought like hungry wolves for every ball, every goal, every win. For their places, for the fans, for the trophies. They fought.

Setting aside the Keanes and Schmeichels (and their ilk) of this world it’s hard to go out and purchase someone whose attitude to daily intensity, defeat and victory matches that level because, by definition, its not ‘their’ club.

Now, growing up in Rosario, Argentina, age contemporary and not many kilometres away from his fellow Rosarian Lionel Messi, it’s not the case that di Maria dreamed of the Stretford End or subscribed to fanzine United We Stand.

Yet one thing which links him to that Class of ’92 is that how hard he works, how much winning means to him, what he’s willing to sacrifice and how much he’s willing to invest in making others around him better players – winners.

Gradually, the Old Trafford faithful (and United’s world-wide audience) will come to recognize that, in spirit and talent on the ball, he’s not just class – he’s ‘Class of ’92’ calibre.

Had this kid been born in Preston, Knutsford or Manchester Deansgate, instead of Rosario – over the last 30 years he’d have been incorporated into the United scouting and youth development system and Sir Alex would have cherished him.

Angel-Di-Maria-840

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Precious moments …

Di Maria and his cost has been something which has over-exercised many minds and mouths over the last few days. United have the money. United have a quality deficit. United need to catch up. Di Maria is a catch. End of.

Had he played for Fergie he’d have been adored by the demanding Scot. Of working class stock (his dad worked in a coal-yard), never a problem in training, blessed with a ‘every minute of every game is precious’ spirit, immensely gifted in how he uses the ball and prepared to work hard to get the thing back when it’s lost – these are all Fergie box-tickers.

After dragging Madrid back into a Champions League final they were about to lose in May di Maria admitted:

I sank to my knees in gratitude, emotion and tiredness. I got through the 120 minutes via sheer will-power and adrenaline.  Every time I put on a jersey I give it everything I’ve got. No matter what people say, I never give 95 or 99 per cent. It’s always 100 per cent  If you consistently do that then in the end you’ll reap the rewards.

Who actually handed him his MOTM trophy? Yes, Fergie. It’s fate.

Moreover what IS United about? Cash reserves, billion-pound sponsorship deals, American owners, executive boxes, debt schedules?

Or passion: sonic booms of excited, orgasmic roars when a goal soars in or a chance zips past; committment; pride; noise; flair; energy and the ‘he who dares, wins’ spirit?

Tell me? Which of the two sentences do you want to apply to your club?

Errol Flynn football or Mickey Finn football?

Baby, please don’t go …

Di Maria pertains to the spirit of the modern Manchester United from Busby to Van Gaal via you know who.

It’s di Maria you’ll want to return to watch. It’s he who’ll persuade you to stick with the transition patiently. He who’ll tip the balance over whether a match ticket or your season book is worth the outlay. Whether the trip to MK Dons in the Capital One Cup on a grimy Tuesday night is one to miss or unmissable.

Let’s be clear. None of the Madrid players wanted him to leave. Carlo Ancelotti didn’t want him to leave. The Argentinian was Man of the Match in that Champions League final, he was a key figure in Argentina reaching the World Cup final and he tends to ‘turn up’ when the pressure is high.

Go and watch his cross for Cristiano Ronaldo to head the winner in the 2011 Copa del Rey final against Barcelona. It’s poetry. It’s utterly beautiful. His goal in the Copa del Rey final win (2-1 against Barcelona again] last season (above); his glorious, nonchalant winner lofted over the Nigerian keeper in the Beijing Olympic Final. Then there’s his 49 assists and 36 goals since joining Madrid in 2010.

Big skills, big game temperament.

Obviously, the world of football isn’t all ambrosia, there are thwarted ambitions too.

Louis Van Gaal

So You Are A Star …

Di Maria is an Argentinian footballer, used to life in Iberia who doesn’t have great English playing for a Dutch coach whose Spanish can be rusty. He’s joining an ailing UK giant in a league which no foreigner fails to be surprised at when they encounter its fury and its fireworks. It’s a test.

More, di Maria is a star, superbly remunerated now and will draw massive attention wherever he goes. These are usually concepts which are anathema to van Gaal. It’s imperative that the two men hit it off. Promptly.

What will help is what one of Van Gaal’s former assistants taught the player known as the ‘noodle’ because of his pipe-cleaner frame.

During his time at Madrid, Mourinho taught me that I wasn’t a ‘pure’ forward. That I couldn’t rest every time the strikers lost the ball. He taught me to give more to the team throughout the game and the di Maria of today compared to how I began playing bears no resemblance tactically or technically.

Carlo Ancelotti840

Street fighting man …

To give the Dutch manager a clue how to handle this guy here’s di Maria on Ancelotti: “When things got tough he didn’t say very much and just made sure that I was in the starting line-ups, even when it felt like everyone else was criticising me.

That trust gave me the confidence to play my part for the team. He wanted me to attack, defend, to run and keep on running. He wanted me to make sacrifices.

Di Maria adds: “A footballer’s career is so short. I treat every match as if I was playing my mates in the street. I adore winning. I feel inferior to nobody and my attitude now is that whenever we don’t have the ball I want to contribute to winning it back as quickly as possible, to press the life out of our opponents. I want the ball.”

And when he begins to be given it by his United team mates everyone who’s still to learn about this youth World Champion, Olympic Gold medallist and Champions League winner will see exactly why.

United may need more quality before the market ends. But in this position they could barely have done better.

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Graham Hunter La Liga preview: Why Real should out-gun Sociedad but Barca are no gimmes at Villarreal

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It’s week two of La Liga and the big guns have very different test as Barca and Real hit the road hoping to match reigning champions Atletico win over Eibar at the Calderón.

Villarreal v Barcelona, Sunday 6pm 

Once Villarreal found out how to beat Barcelona for the first time, in April 2003, it began a 14 match run during which Barça only won four times, there were four draws while, both home and away, Villarreal won six.

The golden years of Pep Guardiola saw the contest veer firmly back in favour of the Camp Nou side but the gap has been narrowing over the last three results – two single-goal victories for Barça and a 0-0 draw.

In fact for the good of La Liga and Spanish football in general it’s a terrific time for this test to come around for Luis ‘Lucho’ Enrique’s (below) re-designed Barcelona side.

Luis-Enrique 840

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Their work ethic, during pre-season and in training, is vastly different from the laissez faire days of Tata Martino, the investment in the squad may not have bought premium beef but it’s better than the spam which was often served up last season.

However it’s nice and early for this project to be given a test like the visit to the Madrigal. Uncomfortable even.

Villarreal work with great intensity whether or not they have the ball, they break at speed, they are on the back of two thrilling Europa League results and, importantly, Cani is once again fit and available to add his nous and attacking aggression to the midfield. (He scored against both Barça and Madrid last season but how they missed him in the middle of the campaign when he was out for 12 straight games.)

At the back Villarreal fought Spurs off for Mateo Musacchio, they’ve signed the previously on-loan Sergio Asenjo (who’s good enough to compete for a place in the Spain squad) and it’s just the type of tight pitch and fervent ‘little town’ support to make this the equivalent of a well balanced FA Cup third-round tie.

Luis Suarez Uruguay resize

Above all, Villarreal play football. They are smart, quick, protective of the ball and will attack Barcelona. Six months from now, perhaps even six weeks from now, with all the new signings bedded in, Luis Suárez (above) available, Luis Enrique in greater command of what’s at his disposal you’d feel confident of backing Barcelona.

Right now it’s one of those ‘you never know’ games about which the rest of Spain is crossing it’s fingers. And singing the verse to Yellow Submarine.

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid, Sunday 8pm 

Carlo Ancelotti840

Once Real Madrid would confront a visit to the Basque Country, in fact anywhere north of Catalunya, with a shudder of horror.

Defeat would be on the cards and what would be absolutely certain would be a night of Basque hostility, intensity, a test of mental and physical muscles – no quarter given.

Right now, ahead of their trip to the Anoeta this weekend, I’d guess that Carlo Ancelotti (above) Paul Clement and Fernando Hierro are wearing happy little grins.

Rogered in Russia

While Madrid were in Geneva dominating the Uefa gala, basking in the golden glow of adoration and their 10th Champions Cup their opponents on Sunday, Real Sociedad, were being rogered in Russia.

Five hour trip there, big new summer-signing Alfred Finnbogason missing injured, three-goal defeat, out of Europe, newly signed keeper Geronimo Rulli injured and likely out for two months, five-agonising-hour journey home. Welcome to the big(ish) time.

So La Real v Real shapes up as the perfect opportunity for Madrid to add to their ‘racha’ (run) of good results against the blue-and-whites.

It’s a decade since La Real beat Real and in their last six Liga meettings the capital club have pumped 26 goals past their rivals.

Right now the crowd are out of love with La Real, Jagoba Arrasate’s job is under threat, goals are terrifically hard to come by and the Txuri-urdin have lost a key man when they sold Chile’s World Cup keeper, Claudio Bravo to Barcelona.

ronaldo_freekick

Despite Madrid looking a bit slow, lacking in crisp, decisive passing and finishing last weekend there are positives. Ronaldo is nearer to fitness, the fact that Benzema broke his scoring drought against Cordoba and the fact that La Real have had a brutal week directs us towards an away win.

If it’s single-handed resistance you are looking for then think Xabi Prieto: he’s scored five times against Madrid in two recent matches – a 4-3 defeat and a 3-3 draw. And if you go ALL the way back to La Real’s last victory over Los Blancos, in May 2004, who scored two of the goals in the 4-1 away win?

Señor Prieto, that’s right.

You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter @BumperGraham

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Graham Hunter La Liga: Barcelona are toughening up whilst Ronaldo will be toughing it out

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Barcelona v Athletic Club, Saturday 3pm

Ten straight defeats at the Camp Nou and 27 goals conceded plus Leo Messi scoring against them in each of the last six times the sides have met in Barcelona doesn’t present a statistic which suggests there’s any real threat to the Catalans here.

But that ain’t how Luis Enrique sees it. The Barça playing legend hasn’t even tried to return this side to the brand of football it played under Pep Guardiola – their visions are similar but not identical.

However, like Guardiola did in his day, he has taken football’s equivalent of a cattle-prod and galvanised a completely different attitude around the Camp Nou and the Joan Gamper training ground. Not only is there a greater intensity and ferocity about daily work it’s beginning to show that everyone, Messi included, realizes that this coach will drop anyone who’s not fully committed and concentrated. Witness Messi racing back, robbing the ball and starting the move which led to him creating the goal-assist for Sandro two weeks ago in Villarreal.

Barcelona-800

More, Luis Enrique fears the FIFA/UEFA virus as much as Guardiola ever did. Most managers worry about injuries and jet lag being the main ‘hangover’ effects from the international break. Enrique and Guardiola view it differently. They fear that things are more relaxed with the national teams, that concentration and intensity can be reduced and those ‘lower’ standards can be brought back to the first Liga game after national team appearances. In the brief training sessions with all his forces re-united he’s hammered home the idea that victory against Athletic is utterly vital. The concept of a Madrid derbi draw and three more points for Barcelona to open a healthy lead over the pair of them is what’s on his mind.

Mascherano returns and while Vermaelen is close to playing Mathieu may miss out so that the Argentinian partners Piqué at the back. Andrés Iniesta’s two week break to help him recover from knee pain should leave him in optimum shape so that Barcelona line up: Bravo: Alves, Piqué, Mascherano, Alba: Rakitic, Busquets, Iniesta: Pedro, Messi, Neymar.

Real Madrid v Atlético Madrid, Saturday 5pm

DerbiMadrileno
The fact that Madrid absolutely battered their city rivals three times last year may sink a little further into the background than would be normal ahead of a massive ‘Derbi Madrileño‘. That was in a brutal 5-0 aggregate Copa semi final win earlier this year – a tie which Álvaro Arbeloa’s attempt to physically intimidate Diego Costa probably cost the former his World Cup place once Vicente Del Bosque announced his displeasure at what he’d seen – plus the 4-1 Champions League final victory.

The reason all that might not be taken as the definitive guide is that Atleti, under Diego Simeone, have become a regular thorn in the side for Los Blancos. Jose Mourinho’s last game in charge was the Copa final, at the Bernabéu in May 2013 and Simeone’s men won 2-1. Last season the first Madrid derbi was at Madrid’s stadium and Atleti won 1-0 [Diego Costa scoring in both those triumphs] while this season a late Raúl Garcia goal, from yet another ball into the box which Madrid couldn’t defend, gave Los Rojiblancos the 1-1 platform to go on and win the Supercopa in the second leg at the Calderón [1-0] a couple of days later.

Post that defeat where Mario Mandzukic started what’s become something of a scoring run [two more for his country during the international break] of four in his last four games Sergio Ramos admitted that not only he but all the Madrid team went out [against Atleti!!!] not as focussed, not as ‘up for’ the opening minutes as they should have been. A shocker.

How Madrid cope in midfield, after being completely overrun there in the last hour at the Anoeta, last time out is a key. Will Gareth Bale be dropped back into a three with Kroos and Modric? Will Ancelotti opt for the 4-2-3-1 formation which his squad seems to be crying out for?

Ronaldo celebrates

Ronaldo missed the first half of the defeat to Atleti last month and was excused international duty because of knee pain. But his rehab work has included six hours a day every day and he’ll start, refreshed, for the European Champions. Carvajal is out and that may allow the potentially incendiary return of Arbeloa at right back. Atlético profile as: Moyá: Juanfran, Miranda, Godín, Siqueira; Tiago, Gabi; Koke, Raúl García, Arda; Mario Mandzukic

Ernesto Valverde (Athletic Coach):

“It’s great to have a team which believes it can go anywhere and win. We have all our guys who went away for internationals back fit and only [striker] Guillermo’s back pain is a problem for his fitness. Barcelona might be [as you say] a team which concedes goals from dead ball situations and we are good at scoring from them to the point that our keeper [Gorka] headed in from one this season! “But to score you have to win lots of corners and attacking free kicks which means playing well and earning them. “That’s our goal”.

The Best of the Rest

Celta Vigo v Real Sociedad, Saturday 9pm

La Real deserve to be the team on everyone’s lips this weekend. 2-0 down to 4-2 up against Real Madrid last time out … can they reproduce the last 60 minutes of form in that match at the Balaidos. They’ve lost there once in nine visits and drew 2-2 last season. Coach Jagoba Arrasate and several of his players have hinted sufficiently at a problem that it becomes the main theme. Over the last few days they’ve all talked about needing to show the confidence, aggressive mentality and intensity which can, by hook or by crook, bring away wins.

The idea is pressing high up the pitch and using a four-man ‘diamond’ midfield. Their big money summer signing, Alfredo Finnbogason, has recovered from his shoulder injury but won’t be ready for this match. Carlos Vela, in theory their star player, is finally training fully and is a likely starter in Vigo. Rising star David Zurutuza, superb both in their curtailed Europa League campaign and in the defeat of Madrid, and a valuable source of goals, has a knee problem and will be a doubt until just before the game.

michaelkrohndehli

Celta have only lost two of their 11 home games in 2014 so far and it’ll be interesting to see how new coach Eduardo Berizzo copes with the fact that [already missing Oubiña and Augusto] nine of his men are coming back to the club after international duties of one kind or another. A plus is that one of those, the Dane Martin Krohn-Dehli, trained fully and seems to have overcome knee pain stemming from his performance against Armenia.

Valencia v Espanyol, Sunday 4pm

Even during an international break we’ve had the chance to get to understand Los Che’s new coach Nuno Espírito Santo better. After his promotional visit to Singapore, with Rodrigo and Dani Parejo, to help new [nearly all signed now] owner Peter Lim promote the club the Portuguese insisted on a number of brutal training sessions. A week ago the Valencia squad put in a two hour shift which ended with bleep test sprints. Every last millilitre of water laid out for the training session was drained.

nunoespiritosanto

His concept is that Valencia must become La Liga’s most athletic team, in pressing and in the speed of their attacks. However Thursday’s session couldn’t start until 18.30 because of the 40 degree heat in Valencia and tactics, not stamina, were the priority. Rodrigo should return on the right in a 4-3-3 formation of Alves: Gayá, Otamendi, Vezo, Barragán: André, Fuego, Parejo: Rodrigo, Alcàcer, Piatti. Alcàcer should be on a high, debut goal for Spain and a new contract on the horizon, while Gayá was kicked a number of times on duty with Spain U21 and if he starts he may not play 90 minutes. There’s a real buzz of optimism around the Mestalla now and it’ll be a surprise if Los Che don’t win … although will the last period of match evidence some leg weariness?

Granada v Villarreal, Sunday 8pm

Granada_homeground

The absence of Uche up front for Villarreal is now compounded by the fact that Gio Dos Santos picked up an injury in a friendly with Mexico during the international break and will now miss up to seven games given that he’ll be out for three or four weeks. During the break The Yellow Submarine’s 22 year old Catalan striker Gerard Moreno hit a hat trick against Celtic in a charity friendly [4-2 win] and looks a shoe-in to make his La Liga debut. Unfortunately Granada have the same problem as striker El Arabi returned from Morocco duty injured – Ortuño is likely to be his replacement. While coach Caparrós has been working on correcting defensive errors with Dimitri Foulquier and Allan Nyom, the former missed training on Thursday with a high temperature. New signing Luis Martíns is a likely debutant so long as he passes his delayed club medical.

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Graham Hunter: Why Real Madrid have a little in common with Chicken Licken this season

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Deportivo la Coruña v Real Madrid

Real Madrid’s opponents this weekend, Deportivo La Coruña, once represented perhaps the healthiest years in La Liga history.

They’d scout brilliantly, play superb football, regularly meet and beat teams like Manchester United, Arsenal and Milan. They were a force.

One of their most emblematic traits was that, at the Riazor in La Coruña (3pm, Saturday), Madrid just couldn’t beat them. For 18 long years there was the odd draw but also a regular flow of three, four and five-goal wins for Depo – often coached by an Atlético legend in Jabo Irureta, just to rub salt in the wound.

To put that kind of hex in context this was across a spell when Madrid reached and won three Champions League finals.

Biggest club competition? No problem.

Three points up in Galicia? Forget it.

Zidane v Keane

Roberto Carlos, Beckham, Figo, Zidane (above), Ronaldo never won at the Riazor while they were Galacticos.

The run from 1991/2 to 2009/2010 finally ended thanks to a 3-1 win inspired by two Karim Benzema goals, one of which is now infamous for a sublime Guti backheel into the Frenchman’s path when Guti seemed free to score himself.

Now Depo represent just about all that ails Spanish league football. Held together by player loans and bank debt there have been times in recent months while the team yo-yoed back and forward from the Second Division, when the club was a candidate to go out of business.

The last formal statement was last year when the total was €153m and they recently admitted owing €63m to the Spanish Revenue as part of that.

What has not changed since that January 2010 win for Manuel Pellegrini’s Madrid broke the jinx, however, is that the Riazor remains a place where Los Blancos need to sweat.

Since then there’ve been two whoppings at the Bernabéu, 11-2 aggregate, but a 0-0 draw and 1-2 away win courtesy of an 88th minute second goal for Jose Mourinho’s Madrid.

A cautionary tale about Real’s weaknesses

This weekend attention turns to Albert Lopo (above) if he starts. The big central defender has played all three league fixtures for Victor Fernandez, but the coach, who often put out winning Celta Vigo and Real Zaragoza teams against Madrid in his day, has been rotating the team significantly.

Why Lopo? He’s scored for both Espanyol and Depo against Los Blancos, the last a headed winner against a back five which sported Casillas, Ramos, Pepe and Marcelo.

Madrid fear the ball in the air more than Chicken Licken feared the sky falling on his head. More? Booked in all three of this season’s matches, Lopo hates a card. Just hates one.

Sent off 13 times in his career and booked 136 times he’s not the quickest and referee Pedro Pérez Montero sports a record of 18 reds in 55 Liga matches. One every three games.

Madrid to win, however. In both of their horror defeats, away to La Real and home to Atlético, they made oodles and oodles of good scoring chances but only put three of them away.

The way in which they hammered Basel in midweek and the relief, for Benzema, James and Bale to get on the scoresheet should de-stress their finishing. Worth noting, however, that their second half performance, just as against La Real and Atlético declined.

Ronaldo will be extra motivated to score at one of only two La Liga grounds this season where he’s not celebrated with a goal. Pepe is injured and Rafa Verane will start in his place.

IF Madrid were to lose then a sniff in the direction of next Liga coach to lose his job might be a forward investment.

Lionel Messi stat La Liga

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Levante v Barcelona

Munir made his Spain debut here a couple of weeks ago, Busquets and Pedro scored then too, against Macedonia, and the great majority of this squad has twice celebrated clinching the title on this ground in Valencia.

Happy hunting ground? Not necessarily so. Of Barcelona’s last seven Liga visits to the Ciutat De Valencia (8pm, Sunday) there have been four 1-1 draws. What I think makes that all the more significant is that the results have come under four different managers using significantly different XIs.

There’s something about this fierce, proud little community and the tight pitch, which was muddy and sluggish down the middle when Spain beat Macedonia back at the beginning of September, which forces Barcelona to be at their sharpest and most aggressive if they want three points.

Something which hasn’t, yet, been the case under the Luis Enrique revolution. Thus far Leo Messi has contributed four assists and scored two goals. Take them away [for the sake of argument] and Barcelona would have registered just one win, scored just one goal and would be under extreme pressure.

Levante don’t like scoring

No question, under ‘Lucho’ Barcelona are working harder, beginning to look more fluent and neither keeper, Claudio Bravo nor Marc-Andre ter Stegen, has had to make more than one significant save.

The pressing all over the pitch has helped see to that. But backstage after the 1-0 win over APOEL numerous players and staff used the word ‘espeso’ to describe their performance.

It’s the word you’d use if the sink pipe was blocked – i.e. not particularly fluid. Luis Enrique has used 22 of his 26 man squad, too many changes in too short a time, frankly.

Neymar hobbled out of the stadium on Wednesday and it’d be a surprise if he started. Time for Munir and Pedro again? NB it’s now 369 minutes since Levante scored a league goal… on that form you’d kinda fancy Barcelona to see out a good win, if they got the first goal.

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

Atlético v Celta Vigo

Cholo v Toto. No, it’s not code. It’s how this battle will be seen by many. Diego Simeone v Eduardo Berizzo. Two aggressive Argentinian street-fighters, with half a lifetime in common, doing battle for the first time as opposing coaches.

They played each other as kids for Newells Old Boys and Velez, they took lumps out of each other for Celta and Atlético as players, shared the national shirt of Argentina to good effect and both, in their fledgling years, coached at Estudiantes.

And perhaps, just perhaps, Toto has picked a good time to head back to Kansas.

Atlético lost only one game and conceded just five goals en route to last season’s Champions League final yet in Athens in midweek they lost to Olympiakos, conceded three times and looked as stretched as they’ve done in Europe for several years.

Mario Mandzukic is out for at least a fortnight after a reparative nose operation and you’d bet that Miguel Ángel Moyà will replace Jan Oblak in goal.

Tiredness was a word which Simeone didn’t allow to feature in Atlético’s dictionary last season… but might there be a trace of it this weekend at Vicente Calderon (7pm, Saturday).

Long journey to Athens, beaten in a sweaty, aggressive cauldron, long journey home – still no Simeone on the bench this weekend.

Heads you win

Celta like to play 4-3-3 in possession, 4-1-4-1 without the ball and, like Atleti are taught to press the opposition high up the pitch and to work like hungry dogs.

Atleti, without Mandzukic, will probably use Raul Jiménez and Antoine Griezmann up front leading to more breakaway counter attacks and a return to the ball played quickly over the top or into channel-runs as last season for Diego Costa.

Celta’s best player, Nolito, is fit again but might not start given that Celta host the Galician derby [v Depo] this week… but with Toto you never know.

Between them, the two sides have scored five headed goals already this season so a look at that for first goal, with perhaps Joaquín Larrivey [two goals already this season and a headed goal for Rayo against Atlético last season] or Diego Godín in mind might reward.

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga preview: Real Madrid should sink The Submarine and don’t be surprised to see red when Atletico meet Sevilla

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Villarreal [7th] v Real Madrid [5th] – Saturday 3pm

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Villarreal wins over Real Madrid come along about as often as a Scottish Independence referendum so it’s very tempting just to vote ‘No!’ here without listening to the debate.
The last time that fabled event took place Manchester City wasn’t even a gleam in Manuel Pellegrini’s eye and Real Madrid still heaped faith and optimism in Lassana Diarra and Royston Drenthe – whatever happened…… Never mind.

It was May 2009, just the second such triumph in their history and only three players from that night, Casillas, Bruno and Cani, can repeat this weekend. Each of them holds the potential to be a major participant.

Carlo Ancelotti (below), right now, is forcing all of us who pay attention to Spanish football to mimic him, in raising our left eyebrows like caterpillars ascending Alpe D’Huez for the Geometrid King of the Mountain’s title. Just over a week ago this most affable of Italian football godfathers began to snap and snarl at people who asked him about the goalkeeping situation. ‘No debate, I’m not getting into all that – Iker is the first team keeper and we won’t be rotating like last season’. Two games later he rotate the keepers.

Or… did he?

Carlo Ancelotti840

With Madrid’s home fans split down the middle over whether to chant in support of San Iker [Saint Iker] or whistle and jeer him, Casillas was left out against Elche. Rotated? Dropped? Keylor came in, did fine but basically had no work. Now Ancelotti says that he will not be playing one keeper in the Bernabeu and another in away matches but will not, either, confirm which of the two will be in the starting XI against Villarreal. [Iker I reckon]

So, what the hell is he up to?

As for Bruno he’s one of the most hard-working, agile and smart midfielders without a high profile in Spanish football. A local boy, he’s someone who could take advantage of the fact that while Toni Kroos is now the ‘organising midfielder’ he does have a tendency to go walkabout.

Then there’s Cani. Rested for Villarreal’s last game, 1-1 at Eibar, he has the aggression, height, know-how and ambition to produce something special on the big occasion, just as he did a year ago on Gareth Bale’s debut, here, in a 2-2 result which ultimately helped cost Madrid the title.

But, don’t ignore the obvious. Ronaldo (below) loves scoring at Villarreal – five in his last four visits – and he’s also hit seven in his last two Liga matches (4/9 to score anytime). The Submarine have three draws a defeat and a comeback win having trailed 0-2 at home to struggling Rayo to show for the weeks after shining in the Europa League qualifying. Imposing themselves and winning is costing them the world at the moment.

Gio Dos Santos is near to return, 20 year old ‘Lucky’ Luciano Vietto scored twice last week to open his account and Uche is working like a dog to supercede his injuries….. but it’ll take a strange twist of events if Madrid don’t add to their wee run of victories, even if at a reduced margin. Ronaldo (4/9 anytime) and Bale (10/11 anytime) to score and see them through.

Ronaldo celebrates

Barcelona [1st] v Granada [8th] – Saturday 5pm

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Football is rock n roll, football grabs the senses, puts them in a high rev spin and returns them to you at the end of 90 minutes – football is a Ryder Cup-high every weekend. Football is king of sports. So let me make your adrenalin soar and your pulse rate rip through the Stock Aitken and Waterman hi-energy beats per minute.

Barcelona and Granada had 67% and 59% of possession in their midweek games … and neither team even managed one paltry effort on target. ‘Football, bloody hell’ [© SAF] Barcelona regularly struggle to beat Granada by more than a single goal and they lost to them last season [1-0] in a match where they bombarded the penalty area but could have been there until August without scoring.

More, Barça’s Messi-dependency has grown over the last year and a bit.

Lionel Messi 2013

If he’s on form, either as an assist-giver or scorer, Barcelona will beat most sides and become trophy contenders. If not, and he once again looked sluggish and tired in midweek even before Malága defender Weligton proved that not only can his parents not spell, he can’t read the rules of football [Clue: it’s NOT WWF] they huff and puff.

Does this paint as a possible banana-skin game for the home side?

Granada don’t concede much, they beat the Catalans last season, they’ve a healthy eight point total already and their coach, Joaquín Caparrós is one savvy dude with a wealth of La Liga know-how. Luis Enrique says: ‘I expect a complicated rival. ‘They are very strong defensively. ‘They work hard, they are smart at set pieces and they counter-attack well. ‘This’ll be the same as almost all our games this season’

Mebbe so. I’ve got a slightly different view. Granada not only were beaten at home in midweek [Levante] they were battered the previous game when winning in Bilbao on a day when they could and should have conceded about five. Barcelona were strangled all over the pitch by a super-industrious Malága midweek – it was one of those which looked like 14 men playing 11.

But the first thing which Caparrós targeted in criticising his team’s midweek slump was their intensity. Their work rate, their concentration but above all their intensity.

Iniesta-Spain-v-Ireland

If they repeat that and fail to learn from Malága’s excellence – they’ll be beaten. In Jhon Córdoba (5/1 anytime) and El Arabi (9/2 anytime), Granada have two big, quick strikers capable of running beyond Barcelona’s extremely high defensive line – can Bravo keep his goal secure [none conceded in the league thus far] and head towards a record? He’s 8/13 to keep a clean sheet.

Andrés Iniesta (above) hasn’t shone yet and needs to – this is just the type of game in which he might open his account (2/1 anytime) but Ivan Rakitic, who’ll take some of the free kicks and who’s not scared of a shot from distance, might add to the one he scored last week at Levante (2/1 anytime).

Sandro (10/11 anytime), if he gets more game time, looks a little sharper in front of goal than Munir (4/5 anytime) right now which is worth noting.

Atlético [3rd] v Sevilla [1st] – Saturday 7pm

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Recently this has been a game where the Spanish league has, politely, asked all participants and management to check their holsters, knuckle-dusters, coshes and tasers in with the security guards at a desk outside each dressing room. To merely brand it ill-tempered would be like saying that the Clanton and Earp brothers didn’t turn out to be socially compatible and that the Campbell’s weren’t great neighbours to Clan MacDonald.

The last six games between the sides have been Football at the OK Corral. They’ve produced 37 bookings, nine red cards [six of which have been straight reds] and five penalties. Very nearly a card of one colour or other every eleven minutes. All bar one of the games have been under the control of Diego Simeone (below) and Unai Emery.

simeone_840

But a couple of the game’s bad boys have moved on – Medel, Diego Costa, Filipe Luis for example. More, when this weekend’s ref, Snr Gonzalez Gonzalez was last in charge of the fixture it was like the Peace Games and white doves were released over the stadium at the end.Right in the middle of this run of undisguised ill-feeling he managed to see the 90 minutes through with only six bookings – ie no reds, no penalties. Can this ref keep things calm again?

Rumours that he put bromide in the players’ tea pre-match are quite unconfirmed.

So, this weekend. Sevilla are joint top, two points ahead of Los Colchoneros and Simeone’s side have looked irregular in draws with Celta and Rayo plus that Champions League defeat in Athens. But beware. Over these six back-alley skirmishes there have been 18 goals only five of which were scored by Sevilla who’ve managed no better than two draws and four defeats.

Raul-Garcia-Atletico

Carlos Bacca has been Sevilla’s touchstone for big goals this season [and last] but he didn’t score in either meeting with Atleti last term and was subbed off both times. Is he ready for this intensity this time? Is the slight slackness which Atletico are showing [they went behind against Celta at home last week and then gifted a really stupid penalty for the equalizer] the sniff of an opportunity which the Colombian requires? He’s 12/5 to score anytime if so.

Atletico are still scoring almost all their goals from set plays [six out of seven in the league], the majority headers, so it’s still worth thinking about Raul Garcia (above, 9/4 anytime), Miranda (9/1 anytime) and Diego Godín (8/1 anytime) while for Sevilla, Stephane Mbia (11/1 anytime) just loves a big goal when he arrives late in the box.

Two significant returns. Diego Simeone’s back on the touchline after his ban … will that quieten down the feud or ratchet it up? and Mario ‘Don’t call me the Phantom of the Opera’ Mandzukic is available again thanks to his 65 gram carbon fibre mask to protect his badly fractured nose.

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga Preview: Pop quizzes, Godfather references and a break down of the three biggest games

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Valencia (2nd) v Atlético Madrid (3rd) – Saturday 3pm

Win this and Atlético’s last few days will have been like the climactic end-game in the Godfather when Michael Corleone hacks down every single one of his would be rivals.

Both Valencia and Sevilla legitimately have their eye on clawing points from the big three and, who knows, possibly testing Atlético’s chin with a few hooks and jabs across the season. Probe for weaknesses.

But Diego ‘El Cholo’ Simeone was back from his ban last weekend. The man in black walked the line again. Or prowled. Result? Sevilla were ripped to shreds – 4-0.

simeone_840

Midweek Atlético went toe-to-toe with the runaway Italian champions in the Champions League and cut Juve down to size too.
The Tattaglias and Barzinis down. Just Moe Greene left.

Valencia. They shouldn’t be credible for third place but if Peter Lim’s takeover is confirmed and if Jorge Mendes keeps putting his formidable transfer market power at Valencia’s disposal then you never know.

Paco Alcácer has four goals and a goal assist in his last five games while Rodrigo, a Real Madrid youth product, would love to send one into Atlético’s ribs.

They’ll face Miguel Ángel Moyà who’s time as Valencia’s keeper was plagued by both injuries and doubts about his top level mentality – will he fluff his return lines or steal the show?

Atlético continue to produce set-play gems and, importantly, to win the second ball around the box. Both centre backs, Mandzukic, Raúl García and the wonderful Arda all look like scoring value in, potentially, a 2-2 draw.

  • Valencia 17/10, Atletico Madrid 13/8, Draw 11/5 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Rayo Vallecano (11th) v Barcelona (1st) – Saturday 5pm

A match between two clubs in a race to see which one can be first to resemble Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona.

The Catalans spent well over €100m in the summer.
Paco Jémez has had to cope with incorporating 17 new players, swapped, borrowed or found down the back of the sofa. You’d think that the visitors might get there first.

But it’s Rayo’s desire to reproduce the best of the Guardiola ideal at Vallecas which tells you this should be a corker of a game.

So successful is Jémez that in 2013 Rayo ended Barcelona’s 317 game run since 2008 when they had always dominated possession. But despite owning the ball for 54% of the time they still lost 4-0.

Rayo don’t have a Petrodollar billionaire owner like PSG but their scouts will have seen the Parisians showing, in winning 3-2 on Tuesday, that if you run at the Blaugrana full backs, if you get quality crosses into the box – fun things can result.

Leo Baptistão has not only scored four times [two off his right foot, one off his left and one header] in two consecutive wins over Athletic and Levante, but he’s precisely the quick footed, hard running striker who might cause danger.

LeoBaptistao

Worth a look for a goal as is Alberto Bueno [Bertie Good] who has four in six and who won the 2006 European U19 Championship with Juan Mata and Gerard Piqué for Spain against Scotland.

Jordi Alba, Andrés Iniesta and Pedro are all notably lacking form for Barcelona who are neither invulnerable nor as intimidating now as they once were.

But Rayo’s attacking, front foot, ‘un-park the bus and drive it through the opposition defence’ will also allow space for Leo Messi, Neymar, Munir and possibly even Xavi who looks fresh and with a free kick goal in him pretty soon.

There should be goals, entertainment and three points for the league leaders despite the whiff of a shock.

  • Rayo Vallecano 8/1, Barcelona 1/10, Draw 9/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Real Madrid (5th) v Athletic Bilbao (16th) – Sunday 8pm

Okay – quick quiz question. What links multimillionaire Thomas Gravesen, celebrity PSG fan David Beckham and racehorse owner Michael ‘Go on my son’ Owen?

Answer – they all started for Real Madrid the last time Athletic Bilbao won at the Bernabéu.

Nearly a decade ago.

Not a good for anyone who’s tempted to oppose Madrid based on the fact that this is last season’s fourth-placed club meeting the side which finished just a place above them.

And, just like in real life, the news gets worse and worse.

During that decade Madrid [home and away] have scored three or more goals against Athletic on 13 occasions. Defences on top… etc.

Right now the Basque club: sit a point off the bottom three, have only beaten Levante in La Liga, who ARE in the bottom three, this season; was beaten on its last trip to Madrid, ten days ago against Rayo, and its chief goal threat, Aritz Aduriz, has only ever scored once against Los Blancos – four and a half years ago for Mallorca.

gravesen_bilbao

After Athletic lost 2-1 to BATE on Tuesday their coach, Ernesto ‘The Ant’ Valverde savaged them: “We were super-weak, lacking in intensity and virtually unrecognisable”

Madrid, after 15 goals in three league games, centre their concerns around the rampant Cristiano Ronaldo.

He left the Ludogorets midweek win with a sore Achilles, victim of a studding, and thus whether or how he plays is of extreme interest. Last time he was absent for Madrid… they lost.

There is one interesting glimmer for the Basques – that 0-2 win back in February 2005 was coached by Valverde during his first spell in charge.

What’s that? You want another straw to cling to?

Fine. Madrid conceded YET another set piece goal to a header against Ludogorets in midweek, Aduriz’s only goal against Madrid was a header and he’s one of Europe’s finest exponents of the nod to the net.

More? Referee Alex Hernández Hernández in his two seasons in Spain’s elite has been in charge of Madrid three times – and they’ve lost twice.

To Malága and Celta.

And he sent two of Athletic’s opponents off in his first term in the big time.

That aside it looks like Madrid should score three, that Karim Benzema’s on bouncy form and is worth an ‘anytime’ punt [as is Ibai Gomez for the visitors] and that one of Spain’s champions league representatives might even be in a relegation position come late Sunday night.

  • Real Madrid 1/5, Athletic Bilbao 13/1, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Deskop | Mobile

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Graham Hunter’s Sunday La Liga Preview: An angry Diego Simeone and a manager on the verge

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ATLÉTICO v ESPANYOL – Sunday, 11am

Three years ago Diego Simeone was roaring Espanyol on in this fixture. I mean ROARING. Glued to his television in Argentina he knew that Gregorio Manazano was on the verge of being sacked and the he was next in line. Espanyol gave Atlético a good rogering, Manzano’s team lost the next one limply and Simeone took over just in time for Christmas. A shedload of trophies, a Champions League final and consecutive wins at the Bernabú later Atlético fans have reason to be thankful [part three] to Espanyol.

However, today, Simeone is roaring AT his players.

It’s a Messianic micro-climate at Atleti. Players believe 110%, GIVE 110% or they can kiss his loyalty [and their place in the team goodbye]. Last time out they were pumped [for fifteen minutes] at Valencia but thereafter played well, might have drawn – but didn’t. In Messianic football environments – under Mourinho, under Guardiola, under Luis Enrique … under Simeone – international breaks are to be feared and hated. Not just for injury, nor tiredness/jet-lag. But because players relax. They see international team mates, they shrug off the harness of club responsibility and often it takes them a week or so to: ‘get in character’ again. [Copyright ® Jules Winfield, our man in Inglewood]

So when he didn’t like Atleti’s training intensity this week their volatile Argentinian leader ripped into them. “Your national teams matter **** all to me. “ANYONE I feel isn’t showing enough attitude and intensity will be dropped, no matter who it is!”

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

Means it too. So here’s your dilemma. In picking a result which is more likely a) he’s hammered them as a precautionary measure based on the fifteen dozy minutes in Valencia and nearly two weeks away on international duty or b) there’s a serious problem and Espanyol have a serious shout of an upset?

Atleti keeper Miguel Angel Moyà admitted yesterday: “In the dressing room here they’ve warned me that Espanyol’s a team we traditionally find very hard to beat”.

I bet on a). Espanyol are beginning to show stamina and character, Kiko Casilla is in a sweet spot and Sergio Garcia always responds to big games like this. But the champions to edge it, possibly 2-1. Right time for Raúl Garcia and Arda to come to the party.

  • Atletico Madrid 1/3, Espanyol 10/1, Draw 7/2: Bet Now

DEPORTIVO v VALENCIA – Sunday, 4pm

And on the subject of times gone by….. In 1992 Nuno Espirito Santo met a disco manager in Porto. Name of Mendes, Jorge Mendes. Licensed to sell drinks then. Players now. Four years later Nuno become Mendes’ first client, Depo signed him … and after a decent career here Nuno is – still a client of the, now, most powerful agent in the world, coach of Valencia and about to inflict damage on poor old Depo.

Paco Alcácer can’t stop scoring or making, Valencia play with energy and fluency, Los Che haven’t lost here since 2003 – six wins and two draws making up that record. André Gomes trained apart over the last couple of days but should be fit to emphasize his importance in midfield again. Depo have a decent sized injury list, are rock bottom and defeat could, feasibly, mean ‘Adios’ for Victor Fernandez. If Valencia wish to fulfil their no1 aim of being in the Champions League next season this MUST be an automatic three points for Nuno’s boys. Rodrigo, Alcácer both look like banker scorers but Los Che have ten different players, defence, midfield and attack, who’ve scored in La Liga. Take your pick.

  • Deportivo 10/3, Valencia 5/6, Draw 5/2: Bet Now

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