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Graham Hunter Exclusive: Moyes to be merrier with another win and Barcelona to stretch league lead with El Clasico win

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Atlético Madrid v Getafe, Saturday 3pm
Referee: Martínez Munuera

Earlier this season Getafe were a bit indigestible to the reigning Champions. Like trying to swallow six cream-cracker sandpaper sandwiches in a sauna.

Cosmin Contra’s team had Alexis sent off with 35 minutes to play but Atleti still only squeeked through 1-0.

For Getafe that may seem an eternity ago – it’s certainly a couple of managers ago. Coach Contra is in China, sold [!] to Guangzhou. Quique Sanchez Flores seemed a brilliant appointment but left, before the ink was dry on his contract, infuriated by broken promises, and now he’s being sued by the President.

Last week, losing 0-1 at home to Real Sociedad Getafe didn’t play like a ‘broken’ team. But it’s feasible that a fracture might occur here.

Getafe have had a man sent off in each of their last three Liga matches against Atleti, beginning last season, when Los Rojiblancos smashed them 7-0 in this fixture. Looks like bad blood.

Atleti street-fought their way through in Europe in midweek and while you might suspect that extra-time and penalties against Leverkusen would take their toll, physically, the mental boost of winning that shoot-out and delighting these rabid fans means that Atleti should be backed to come out all guns blazing and to get tucked right into Getafe.

Raul Garcia

Raul Garcia got two in this game last year and having missed a penalty in the shoot-out it’d be typical of him to get that monkey off his back quickly with a goal against Getafe.

Griezmann, as always, is worth a punt because his pace, confidence and form set him apart. But if Mario Mandzukic’s midweek knock keeps him out then Fernando Torres scoring in a Madrid derby is worth a look too.

Hunter’s Hint: Atletico -2 goals at 11/4

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Athletic Bilbao v Almería, Saturday 9pm
Referee Prieto Iglesias

The Lions finally had enough of being stared at in their cage and got on with doing a bit of savaging. Five straight wins in League and Cup, including the European champions, stingy in defence and in front of a roaring, proud crowd. All of that and the Copa final to come at the end of May.

So, playing lowly Almería who’ve not tasted victory in five it’s gotta be a straight KO, right?

San Mames stadium

But just the slightest engaging of memory muscles will remind you of Athletic losing to Elche, Cordoba and Granada this season.
All of them at San Mames. All of them ‘guaranteed’ wins.

Ernesto Valverde says:

“We need to change our mentality. “We’ve been playing well, last week Celta allowed us space to get in behind them but Almeria will dig in and we’ll need neat, technical, inside-forward skills around their area to get the win we want”.

Almería coach Juan Ignacio Martínez, known to friend and foe alike as JIM, agrees:

“I like my teams to be on the ball but I’ve consolidated my reputation as a coach by knowing how to defend deep, intensely and to play well on the break. “That’s my trademark”.

Tomer Hemed, fancied for long enough by Everton until a bad injury, is their most bankable scorer while Aduriz is having a simply unbelievable season. Miki San José, named in the Spain squad, loves a goal and while I don’t think this paints as an ideal game for him [he’ll get more on the break than he ever does as a penalty box finisher] Iñaki Williams does work his socks off for the team and one of these days he’ll look less ungainly in the box and score.

If this isn’t a firm home win then I’ll not be the only one who’s shocked. Athletic to score a couple and win. More Aduriz? Why not?

Hunter’s Hint: Aduriz to score and Bilbao to win at 8/5

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Villarreal v Sevilla, Sunday 4pm
Referee: Hernández Hernández

“Oh, it’s YOU again” – the surly, barely civil greeting between those who didn’t particularly like each other in the first place and have, definitely, seen too much of each other in recent days.

This will be the fourth meeting between them this season and the third in ten days. Thus far the clock has been Villarreal’s enemy in these contests.

For example, back in October they faced off in the League.

Vietto [definitely worth an any-time] put Villarreal ahead at the Sanchez Pizjuan with 11 remaining.

But then both Denis Suárez and Carlos Bacca [penalty] scored in the space of the last three minutes – the countdown to the final whistle cost Villarreal dearly.

elmadrigal

Then, last week, it took Vitolo 13 seconds to give Sevilla a lead which they converted into a huge Europa League away win at the Madrigal – 1-3 was the final score with Mbia and Gameiro adding the other two.
[Vietto scored again].

So the Yellow Submarine dozed off in the first fixture and hadn’t woken up in time for the second meeting.

By Thursday things were slightly less dramatic but Suárez still added the key goal with the match balanced at 1-1 with seven minutes left.
Villarreal must feel pretty humiliated by Unai Emery’s evidently sharper/fitter team.

You’d have thought that, perhaps, they’ll get after them with all guns blazing just for a little bit of revenge on Sunday afternoon – perhaps Eric Bailly’s red card on Thursday will be added to?

But Sevilla have three wins and a draw in the last seven visits to the Madrigal.

So it’s a feisty one in prospect. Hard to call. Sevilla have proven that they are more savvy, fitter and maybe just that touch hungrier. So they should go home again without defeat. 2-2. Perm from Vietto, Gerard, Bacca, Vitolo [named in the Spain squad] or Denis Suárez for the goals.

Hunter’s Hint: 2-2 at 11/1

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Real Sociedad v Córdoba, Sunday 6pm
Referee: Velasco Carballo

This is a good moment to be David Moyes.

Everton don’t look better off without him, Manchester United’s vast expenditure on players hasn’t greatly improved their paying public’s contentment with the Van Gaal playing style, yet at least, and now Real Sociedad are both bright and bubbly.

They’ve won three out of the last four and suddenly there’s not a queue to get into the infirmary or red-cross aid being handed out in San Sebastian.

David Moyes

This season every single player except two, Rubén Pardo and Esteban Granero, has missed at least one game through injury and this is the first week that La Real have had every player fit.

The big question is whether the Scot reckons that his star striker Carlos Vela has had enough time working with the squad, after two months out, to have game time here.

A start seems unlikely, particularly given how well La Real have coped without him.

Cordoba have lost their last eight, more fool them for sacking Chapi Ferrer in the first place.

Worse, they’ve only scored four times in those eight matches. The second division awaits. Chapi’s replacement, Miroslav Djukic, has also been sacked and the ‘Miracle Man’ José Antonio Romero, is in charge. Last season he took over the Cordoba ‘B’ team when they’d gone eight games without a win [7 defeats] and saved them from relegation.

His former midfielder Rafa Gálvez reckons: “This is a reward for years of hard work by Romero. “He’s such a hard worker. “Last year the B team was last but he saved them. “It’ll be intense under him but he’s qualified for the job of keeping Cordoba up”. Iago Bouzón, Fede Vico and Edimar are all out – Crespo’s a doubt. Not ideal. Xisco came off the bench in the first game between these sides this season [1-1] to equalize very late on but Nabil Ghilas is the [any time scorer] danger man.

La Real aren’t a scoring machine and thus a draw isn’t impossible but their confidence is high, they’ve been working hard under Moyes and should win.

Perm from Canales, Chory Castro and Iñigo for an any time scorer. 2-0/3-1

Hunter’s Hint: Real Sociedad -1 at 15/8

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FC Barcelona v Real Madrid, Sunday 8pm
Referee: Mateu Lahoz

Okay, hands up and no shouting the answer out – who remembers Carlo Ancelotti’s ideas last season before the Camp Nou Clasico?

Anyone? No? Right, time you lot did more homework.

Gareth Bale at centre forward to begin with, Sergio Ramos in midfield. Sami Khedira lumbering around alongside him.

No Benzema to start with. No Isco. No Iker. Sounds farcical, doesn’t it?

But Madrid still only lost 2-1 and were, by the time he got things right tactically, distinctly in the ascendancy as the final whistle approached.

Carlo Ancelotti

The Italian’s confusion wasn’t simply to do with it being his first match against Barça as Madrid coach – mainly to do with him not being sure of his own resources.

This Clasico weekend profiles differently. You’d bet that he’ll start with Casillas; Carvajal, Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo: Isco, Kroos, Modric: Bale, Benzema, Ronaldo.

No experiments, no mucking about. But the shape will probably be more often 4-4-2, and the style will certainly be more counter-attacking then has been the case for most of this season.

Ancelotti is asking Bale to work more defensively, to position himself more as a fourth midfielder than the third striker – and if the Welshman fulfils his brief he is, counter-intuitively, more likely to be a goal threat.

When he got his winner in the Copa Final last season he’d begun the move back in his own penalty box – but still left Marc Bartra gasping for air when sprinting across half the pitch, and what felt like twice around the stadium, to score. Let Bale get up pace and he’s more dangerous than he’s looked in recent months.

Barcelona are susceptible to pace and power when it’s deployed on clever counters against them – step forward Gareth-boyo.
Eight visits since losing here 5-0 in 2010 have all brought a Real Madrid goal or goals. They score at the Camp Nou and should do so again. Benzema has four in three v Barça.

Claudio Bravo

If you’d like another reason to believe in the visitors then let’s update Claudio Bravo’s stats against Madrid.

Since 2006 he’s faced them 11 times, losing ten and conceding 33 goals.

All that said, Barcelona start favourites and should probably carry your cash on them. They play quick, confident football, press well and rob the ball and now they break effectively.

At set plays they score more, defending set plays they concede fewer.

There’s competition for places, Messi’s on flying form and Rakitic is the under-appreciated hit of the season.

It’s hard to imagine that Busquets is ready to play but Mascherano in midfield works – just differently.

Both teams to score, three+ goals [the last ten years have seen 34 Clásicos averaging three and a half goals per game], Messi to add to his all-time leading scorer status in this fixture, Benzema to reply but the home side to extend their Liga lead. Easier said than done.

Hunter’s Hint: Both teams to score and Barcelona to win at 6/4

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Graham Hunter exclusive: Why La Liga is a two-horse race – but there may be a Cup in the new-look Atletico

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So the joke goes: an anteater walks into a bar wearing an Atlético Madrid scarf and the barman says to him: Why the long odds?.

You can take 14/1 off Paddy Power for los Rojiblancos to defend their title and while it’s probably common sense to offer them as third favourites against the vastly reinforced Barcelona and Madrid – those odds for a defending champion is an unusual sight.

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Particularly after the club splurged it’s greatest ever outlay on a single transfer binge – touching €98m gross once the delayed operation for Ángel Correa (whose heart anomaly needs to be defined and corrected) is completed.

Moreover,  this club, in recent years, must be in the top three of world football for spotting the right players, whether expensive, cheap or free, to be affordable, the right ‘fit’, winners and with a major sell-on value.

They have a fabulous track record over the last four or five years. Fabulous.

Thibaut-Courtois-800

To put flesh on this summer’s bones, manager Diego Simeone has added exciting French winger/second striker Antoine ‘Greased Lightning’ Griezmann, Mario Mandzukic, Correa, Benfica keeper Jan Oblak, Mexican striker Raúl Jimenéz, back-up keeper Miguel Ángel Moya and flying wing-back Guillherme Siqueira.

Of the 14 departures the most significant are Diego Costa, Thibaut Courtois (above), Filipe Luis, Diego Ribas and David Villa.

Putting the squeeze on …

Simeone (below) justifiably enjoys the reputation of a man-manager who is able to squeeze every last drop of attitude and commitment out of his footballers – something which may be handy with Mandzukic.

As such it’s feasible that he can handle the impact of this hemorrhage / transfusion operation of players in and out more quickly and more successfully than most.

The age and quality of their recruits plus the block of important footballers who’ve been retained (Miranda, Godín, Gabi, Koke, Juanfran, Raúl Garcia for example) suggests that there might be a trophy in Atlético.

Also that they should be capable of doing some damage to the ‘big two’ in one-on-one situations. But the title? No.

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

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To me the key is that Atlético won La Liga by a hairsbreadth last season.

Twelve single goal wins (18 across all competitions), clinching the title on the last day at the Camp Nou where just one more goal from Barcelona, in a weak season, would have given them the crown. Hairsbreadth.

Throughout the season they were constantly in debt to Costa for those single-goal victories – winners against Milan, Madrid, Levante and Athletic in Europe, La Liga and the Copa Del Rey are examples. Equally, Courtois saved them over and over and over again.

Up for the Cup …

Good luck to the armada of new strikers and to goalkeeper Oblak.

But it’s just not feasible for them to reproduce what Simeone has lost in a season when there’s been the disruption of 23 moves either in or out. Last summer I tipped Simeone’s lot as likely title winners.

Trust me again when I say nothing better than a cup competition this time around.

Barcelona-800

So, who else outside Los Rojiblancos MIGHT do damage to Madrid and Barça?

Last season was a finger in the eye to the ‘disengage brain and open mouth’ pundits who know nothing about La Liga. ‘Not competitive, two horse blah, blah, yawn, halfwit comment…’ was too often the stereotypical comment.

Beyond Atlético winning the title, Madrid and Barcelona lost points home and away to Levante, Real Sociedad, Granada, Getafe, Elche, Villarreal, Sevilla and Celta Vigo while the clubs who took points off BOTH the big two were Athletic, Osasuna, Valencia and Valladolid.

So 13 clubs were able to trip the big two up. Competitive.

Sadly, I believe, things have changed. Most weeks I’ll go into more depth about the individual clubs who catch the eye in La Liga but suffice to say now: Osasuna and Valladolid have been relegated, Levante, Getafe, Real Sociedad, Athletic, Sevilla, Celta, Atlético have all lost either their best or second best player and/or their manager.

Ronaldo celebrates

Elche and Granada might be around a similar level but won’t be putting their life savings on taking major scalps again while it’s arguable that Villarreal and Valencia might be more competitive this time around.

Madrid and Barcelona will inevitably slip up here and there but I’m convinced that, this season, it actually is a one v one battle to succeed 2014 champions Atlético.

You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter @BumperGraham

 

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Graham Hunter exclusive: Keeping Ronaldo sweet post-Bale is Madrid’s biggest challenge

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European football expert Graham Hunter on how Carlos Ancellotti can get the best from Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale to keep a star-studded Real Madrid purring.

Carlos Queiroz was a failure as coach of Real Madrid. But part of the solution to Gareth Bale starting his Bernabéu career well and in a positive environment actually lies in the work of the Portuguese former assistant to Sir Alex Ferguson.

During spring and summer 2007 Queiroz came up with the theory that Ronaldo would benefit United if he were played predominantly down the middle and that a sudden change of orientation would help challenge the already prodigious player.

Queiroz told more than one confidant:

He’s the kind of guy for whom the ceiling is always too low. Cristiano needs to be challenged, needs to be pushed out of a comfort zone because he’s so good that he’ll always respond to such a situation.

The Champions League, the Premier League, European Golden Boot, FIFA World Player, the Ballon D’Or and 42 goals later it didn’t seem like a bad piece of deduction and invention from Ferguson’s sidekick.

The one problem is that Ronaldo didn’t enjoy the experience. He often phoned one particular ally, ex-United fitness coach Valter Di Salvo, to unburden his blues about where he was being played.

Ronaldo

YOU WANT ME TO PLAY WHERE?  Keeping Ronaldo sweet is key to Madrid’s title ambitions

Flash forward to summer 2013.

Carlo Ancelotti knew when he signed up for duty at the Bernabéu that Bale was joining Madrid. Having mused over some ideas the Italian figured that one terrific way to accommodate a new signing in whose selection he’d played no part, was to use Ronaldo as a striker, not off the wing, and to use Bale either wide right or wide left.

On the blackboard it makes full football sense. Ronaldo was prolific last time he played there. Bale is a snug fit to this team if he’s raking down the left or the right and shooting on sight as is his signature – more pace, more power, more goals. Everybody’s happy.

Cue a deterioration in Real Madrid’s play, Ronaldo’s scoring rate and his demeanour. He didn’t like playing out-and-out striker then and he doesn’t now.

The cutest thing Ancelotti can do right now, so that Ronaldo looks upon the Welshman not a threat but a guy with similar talents, attitudes and athleticism who can help them all win big trophies – is to restore the Portuguese to his left-wing position.

It would mean, in all likelihood, an alteration to the formation – back to 4-2-3-1.

Carlo Ancelotti

MAN IN THE MIDDLE: Carlo Ancelotti must get the Bale/Ronaldo balance right (pic: Inpho)

 

What does this mean for Bale?

There is one clear, potentially very productive berth for Bale and that’s down the right. It would displace one of the stars of this early season, Angel Di Maria … but that’s life at Madrid.

Bale at full tilt down the right and either crossing to find Ronaldo’s head or, more likely, cutting in to shoot at goal off his devastating left foot – is an attractive prospect.

The only dilemma is how to keep Alonso [when fit again] Illarramendi [ €40m this summer], Khedira [German World Cup stalwart], Modric [fan favourite and Bale chaperone] plus Casemiro [bought this summer] happy when there is only a two-man midfield. Again, over to you Carlo.

But there is an option which would work, which would draw on Ancelotti’s successful past and which would accommodate Di Maria – a clever, old-fashioned winger who opens up tight defences.

When Ancelotti was at his most successful at Milan, Kaká was at his footballing and athletic peak.

He played in front of a hard-working midfield, Seedorf, Ambrosini, Gattuso, and was given license to power down the middle of the pitch using his Olympic acceleration, shooting from distance and/or laying the ball off to wide players and looking for the return into the box.

Remind you of anybody? Welsh? Name of Bale?

BALE FORCE: Gareth Bale tore Inter Milan a new one in the Champions League

BALE FORCE: The Welshman can tear it up in La Liga if given room to roam

There will be a myriad of games at the Bernabéu when Ancelotti’s Madrid face 10 men behind the ball and the frustration of trying to unpick massed-rank defences.

One extra solution, which Madrid have only been able to apply via the (now departed) Özil-Ronaldo connection until now is when they catch the opposition too high up the pitch, particularly at an attacking corner, allowing the then Jose Mourinho’s side to break at high pace. They’ll continue with that and Bale will thrive.

However, with Bale, there are scenarios now where Madrid can pick the ball up not far beyond the half-way line and, even if the opposition are not caught in disarray, allow Bale to run at them.

Most top technical departments around Europe have been left wondering this summer whether Bale’s excellence relies on him athletically powering past a slalom of players – rather than having the close skills ['a trick'] to jink past defenders from a static start.

One way to allow that debate to develop slowly, rather than to be immediately in the spotlight, is for Bale to take up different positions. This depends of course on how Ancelotti wants to play against certain rivals and whether Madrid are at home or away.

Away from home, with two holding midfielders and Bale on the right. Home with Di Maria wide right and Bale playing off one holding midfielder.

Equally, if Ronaldo is on the left and Bale playing down the middle then the prospect of Di Maria’s devastating crossing from the right adds a greater likelihood of headed goals.

Right foot for standing on?

Of all the times the Welshman has hit the net for club and country you can still count his right-footed goals on the fingers of one hand.

However, the percentage of times he hits the net with a header has been steadily increasing year on year.

Not something Ancelotti’s scouting team has missed in their analysis of the new boy.

Welcome to Spain Mr Bale. These are exciting times, not only for you but for those of us who wish that excellent British footballers would more often opt to better themselves and develop as individuals in some of the continent’s top clubs.

PS: Try to keep on Cristiano’s good side. Whether that’s the left, the right or … down the middle.

Bale_ACCA

  • Betting: Villarreal v Real Madrid  
  • Read more Graham Hunter articles here 

Graham Hunter is the author of the award-winning book, Barca: The Making of the Greatest Team in the World. He is a regular contributor to the Paddy Power Blog on football and an all-round good guy. Follow him on Twitter here


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Graham Hunter exclusive: Here’s why Gotze’s absence doesn’t mean Dortmund are done for

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European football expert Graham Hunter has three bets out of left field for the neutral in the all-German Champions League Final on Saturday night at Wembley.

If you’d blindfolded David, tied one arm behind his back and replaced the stone in his sling with cotton wool you’d STILL have a bigger crowd of backers on him to win his one-on-one with Goliath than those favouring  Borussia Dortmund on Saturday night.

Even though we saw Manchester United beat Bayern Munich without Paul Scholes and Roy Keane in 1999, Barcelona beat United in 2009 without Eric Abidal, Rafa Marquez and Dani Alves,  Chelsea beat Bayern without John Terry, Branislav  Ivanovic, Ramires and Raul Meireles – the absence of Mario Gotze seems to have been taken as the end of Dortmund’s hopes.

Lukasz Piszczek needs a hip operation post final because he’s in persistent pain. And if Mats Hummels starts then the spotlight will be trained right on him because of the ankle problem which he suffered in defeat against Hoffenheim last weekend.

SOCCER: One-nation European finals

The theory is that Gotze is so outstanding, such an important gateway for Dortmund’s high energy, vertical playing philosophy – that his absence is disastrous.

Bayern are football’s Terminators.

In summary they’ve scored a million goals this season, teams are petrified to score against them in case they get a knuckle sandwich, everyone’s in perfect form, each of their players is quicker, taller, stronger than their rivals. As they’d say in Goodfellas: ‘Forget about it’.

And all joking aside, Jupp Heynckes’ side are tremendous to watch and a real swine (or Schweini) to play against.

Having dominated Dortmund domestically this season, Supercup, German Cup, Bundesliga, it really would be a massive setback for Bayern not to complete the set with the Champions League trophy which their butter-fingers let slip 12 months ago against Chelsea.

And if you want to put your sterling, your Euros or even the odd Deutschmark from down the back of the sofa on Bayern the evidence keeps on mounting to say you’re spot on.

Dortmund’s key player, Robert Lewandowski, is off to Bayern once the final is over so who knows how he’ll handle the pressure of leading the line against his new employers?

Ripped out fingernails

Bayern romped to Wembley against Juventus and Barcelona on an 11-0 aggregate scoreline while Dortmund ripped out all their fingernails while clinging on for wins against Malaga and Real Madrid.

An open and shut case – right?

Possibly so.  However it’s a fact that in the last 10 matches between the sides, in all competitions, Dortmund have won five and drawn two – not a bad record.

Equally, it’s just a year since Jurgen Klopp’s side won the German Cup final 5-2 against a Bayern XI which, barring the injuries to Holger Badstuber and Toni Kroos, could feasibly start on Saturday night.

Whether or not you fancy Bayern to ultimately do the logical thing and win there may be one or two factors worth taking into account.

  • In seven of those last 10 matches between the sides Dortmund have scored the first goal.
  • Of the three previous European Cup finals between teams from the same country familiarity hasn’t bred contempt – but penalty shoot-outs instead

AC Milan beat Juve on spot-kicks in 2003, Manchester United did the same to Chelsea in 2008 and if you consider that of the four matches between Bayern and Dortmund this season there have been two draws and two single-goal wins for the Bundesliga champions then perhaps extra time and penalties aren’t wildly fanciful.

Then there is the theme which the bashful, inarticulate, wallflower Dortmund coach Jurgen Klopp himself introduced.

Champions League

GERMAN MENACE: Lewandowski, Klopp, Muller and Bond baddie Blofeld

Ahead of the final he said:

Bayern want the Bundesliga to be a one- team league. It’s like James Bond but they aren’t Bond, they are the other guy. They want to dominate Europe and Germany for a decade.

Klopp also admits that when he heard that Gotze had been bought out of his contract by Bayern Munich it devastated him for a night – enough to make him miss his friend starring in a movie Premier and the red carpet, Rolls Royce evening which was in store for Herr and Frau Klopp by association.

In one fell swoop with his Bond-villain quotes he managed to make this a grudge match and to invoke ‘underdog’ sympathy for his side.

This isn’t a tie which generally produces a flood of red cards, although Rafinha was sent off during the recent Bundesliga draw, and there have only been two red cards in European Cup finals – Arsenal ‘keeper Jens Lehmann and Didier Drogba in 2006 and 2008 respectively.

Good luck to Italian ref Nicola Rizzoli who has issued only four red cards in 39 Uefa club matches. Perhaps, just perhaps, he’ll augment that total.

Now, given that it’s the last vital club game of my working season I’m going to indulge on that sixth-sense ‘instinct’ call. Only two players, Samel Eto’o and Raul Gonzalez, have scored in two Champions League finals and Thomas Muller, is a punt of mine to score in two consecutively.

It’s hard to envisage Dortmund having a chance unless Lewandowski provides them with a goal but Nuri Sahin is a massive favourite of Klopp’s and it’s feasible that a weight of responsibility will fall on his shoulders now that Gotze is out. A surprise goal or man of the match?

It could easily be hostile, it’ll be passionate, noisy and intense. Get your bets on, get the beers in sit back and enjoy a cracker.

Graham’s best bets for the Champions League final:

  • Muller time:  Thomas to score for Bayern in consecutive finals
  • Early bath: What are the odds on a red card being shown?
  • Too close to call: See our extra-time and penalties market
  • Sahin surprise: What price the man of the match award

MBS


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[VIDEO] Graham Hunter exclusive: Dortmund, Madrid, La Liga pride and Mesut Ozil rising to the occasion

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European football expert Graham Hunter (@bumpergraham) is predicting Real Madrid’s experience and composure will prove key in getting a positive result in tonight’s Champions League semi-final with Borussia Dortmund in Germany.

If it’s not to be a complete Bundesliga domination of this week’s Champions League semi finals then, ironically, Real Madrid might depend on a German to restore some La Liga pride.

Mesut Ozil has become a world class footballer under Jose Mourinho. He arrived in Spain as a young man of patent talent but the physical training at Madrid has not only completely altered his stamina (no longer is it a trademark that he’s subbed after 70 minutes) but given him significantly more top-body strength with which to hold off challenges and to buy himself space.

But, more than that, this game is a local derby against ‘the enemy’ for him. Born 35 minutes away from the Dortmund’s amazing Signal Iduna Park and originally a Schalke 04 youth talent, Ozil has always loved a tussle with the ScharzGelb (Black and Yellow).

How Ozil became the key man

Perhaps there’s something Pavlovian about the German midfielder’s response to facing Dortmund but having shone against them domestically for Schalke and Bremen, Özil was then probably the stand-out performer in the two Group D games between the sides earlier this season.

Away from home,  admittedly in defeat,  his was the clever lofted assist-pass which helped Cristiano Ronaldo score almost instantly after going behind to Robert Lewandowski’s opener.

In the return match it was the Real Madrid No 10 whose left-footed cross dropped perfectly for Pepe to head home the first equaliser and, again, it was Özil who squared the game in the last seconds thanks to a daring free kick which slid in at Roman Weidenfeller’s left hand post.

Champions League MBS

Again on the positive side for the reigning Spanish champions Ronaldo is on the most powerful, convincing and enjoyable form of his entire career. Beyond all the normal talent, power, height, free kicks, pace and heading ability there’s no missing the fact that since the Ballon D’Or went to Leo Messi in January the Portuguese has quietly got on with dominating Spanish football and putting himself in a position to rob Messi of the Champions League top scorer award for the first time in five seasons.

What’s more, he’s also a more complete team player than ever before. Previously there were uneven comparisons between Ronaldo and Messi in terms of goal assists but, again, CR7 has begun to close the gap and has been generous this season, in La Liga and the Champions League, in giving goals to Benzema, Higuain (who’ll start tonight) Ozil and Di Maria.

On that subject Mourinho will use Diego: Ramos, Pepe, Varane, Coentrao, Alonso, Khedira, Di Maria, Ozil, Ronaldo and Higuain tonight.

Pepe is the weak link

One man who’ll have to completely change his level of performance from the group games is Pepe. He gave away possession, allowed a shot to go right under his boot and was outjumped by Robert Lewandowski for three of the four goals in Group D which gave Jurgen Klopp’s team a win and a draw.

Important to Madrid in terms of height, power and pace Pepe is also a player who is notoriously capable of losing concentration and of losing his head. It will be a volatile atmosphere at Signal Iduna, Lewandowski says he’s fully fit and this is going to be a test for the Portugal international.

If he improves from his last two meetings with Dortmund and if Ozil and Ronaldo hit their marks then Madrid have the chance of taking a score draw back to Spain.

Dortmund merit respect for being quick, technical, smart, confident, well coached and terrifically well supported. However it’s possible that, tonight, experience and timing are slightly more in Madrid’s favour than a couple of months ago.

Malaga showed that Dortmund are vulnerable to the counter attack,  Mario Gotze’s transfer to Bayern being announced can’t help and, perhaps, the gap between the sides which was evident late last year has narrowed a little.

Betting: Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid

VIDEO: Watch for Graham Hunter’s tips on Dortmund v Real Madrid


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[VIDEO] Graham Hunter exclusive: Dortmund, Madrid, La Liga pride and Ozil rising to the occasion.

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European football expert and red-hot tipster Graham Hunter is predicting Real Madrid’s experience and composure to prove key in getting a positive result in tonight’s Champions League semi-final with Borussia Dortmund in Germany.

If it’s not to be a complete Bundesliga domination of this week’s Champions League semi finals then, ironically, Real Madrid might depend on a German to restore some La Liga pride.

Mesut Ozil has become a world class footballer under Jose Mourinho. He arrived in Spain as a young man of patent talent but the physical training at Madrid has not only completely altered his stamina (no longer is it a trademark that he’s subbed after 70 minutes) but given him significantly more top-body strength with which to hold off challenges and to buy himself space.

But, more than that, this game is a local derby against ‘the enemy’ for him. Born 35 minutes away from the Dortmund’s amazing Signal Iduna Park and originally a Schalke 04 youth talent, Ozil has always loved a tussle with the ScharzGelb (Black and Yellow).

Perhaps there’s something Pavlovian about the German midfielder’s response to facing Dortmund but having shone against them domestically for Schalke and Bremen, Özil was then probably the stand-out performer in the two Group D games between the sides earlier this season.

Away from home,  admittedly in defeat,  his was the clever lofted assist-pass which helped Cristiano Ronaldo score almost instantly after going behind to Robert Lewandowski´s opener.

In the return match it was the Real Madrid No 10 whose left-footed cross dropped perfectly for Pepe to head home the first equaliser and, again, it was Özil who squared the game in the last seconds thanks to a daring free kick which slid in at Roman Weidenfeller’s left hand post.

Champions League MBS

Again on the positive side for the reigning Spanish champions Ronaldo is on the most powerful, convincing and enjoyable form of his entire career. Beyond all the normal talent, power, height, free kicks, pace and heading ability there’s no missing the fact that since the Ballon D’Or went to Leo Messi in January the Portuguese has quietly got on with dominating Spanish football and putting himself in a position to rob Messi of the Champions League top scorer award for the first time in five seasons. What’s more, he’s also a more complete team player than ever before. Previously there were uneven comparisons between Ronaldo and Messi in terms of goal assists but, again, CR7 has begun to close the gap and has been generous this season, in La Liga and the Champions League, in giving goals to Benzema, Higuain (who’ll start tonight) Ozil and Di Maria.

On that subject Mourinho will use Diego: Ramos, Pepe, Varane, Coentrao, Alonso, Khedira, Di Maria, Ozil, Ronaldo and Higuain tonight.

One man who’ll have to completely change his level of performance from the group games is Pepe. He gave away possession, allowed a shot to go right under his boot and was outjumped by Robert Lewandowski for three of the four goals in Group D which gave Jurgen Klopp’s team a win and a draw.

Important to Madrid in terms of height, power and pace Pepe is also a player who is notoriously capable of losing concentration and of losing his head. It will be a volatile atmosphere at Signal Iduna, Lewandowski says he’s fully fit and this is going to be a test for the Portugal international.

If he improves from his last two meetings with Dortmund and if Ozil and Ronaldo hit their marks then Madrid have the chance of taking a score draw back to Spain.

Dortmund merit respect for being quick, technical, smart, confident, well coached and terrifically well supported. However it’s possible that, tonight, experience and timing are slightly more in Madrid’s favour than a couple of months ago.

Malaga showed that Dortmund are vulnerable to the counter attack,  Mario Gotze’s transfer to Bayern being announced can’t help and, perhaps, the gap between the sides which was evident late last year has narrowed a little.

Betting: Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid

 


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[VIDEO] Graham Hunter exclusive: Bayern Munich, Barcelona, a 12/1 tip and a zebra

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European football expert and red-hot tipster Graham Hunter is predicting tonight’s Champions League semi-final between Bayern Munich and Barcelona to end all square.

{Find out Graham’s 12/1 tip by scrolling down and watching the video} 

There’s an old saying from the hard-boiled private detective fiction of  Raymond Chandler and his cronies which I love – “If you hear the sound of hooves coming, don’t look for zebras – it’ll be horses”.

Those writers used it to say ‘don’t look beyond the obvious suspect’ and perhaps it applies to Bayern v Barça tonight.

The Bavarians have stomped all over their domestic competition and gave Juve a slapping in the last round.

Barça are full of incognitos (is Busquets fully recovered from his groin strain? Is Messi properly fit for his explosive bursts of genius? Who will play alongside Piqué? Bartra? Abidal?) and they’ve played without their old intensity in the second half of this season.

So, perhaps it’s stupid to look for a zebra when we are going to see a horse?

Many of the shrewd bets must favour the home team. But I think there are some minor indications that the nag might be sporting one or two stripes tonight.

Barça haven’t lost in Germany for eleven years – five wins and three draws in that time.

Barça love to face teams who are going to give them a game – Philip Lahm’s words about going toe-to-toe with Tito Vilanova’s side will be very welcome. They get SO sick of having to unpick defences with ten men behind the ball all the time.

Teams who attack them give them spaces – and chances. If Messi is firing on all cylinders then, obviously, he’s the banker bet to exploit them.

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However I like Pedro – quick, a deceptively good finisher and with a couple of recent big goals (against PSG and France) to his name. It was actually against this keeper, Manuel Neuer, he learned a big lesson. World Cup semi final 2010, through one on one and with Fernando Torres alone beside him Pedro tried to round the keeper, his studs slipped on the arid African pitch and the chance for 2-0 was gone. Coaches for Spain and then Pep Guardiola advised him to shoot hard, low and early in similar circumstances. He’s done it and perhaps he´ll come full circle tonight.

If you are betting in-play then watch Busquets. Against PSG, both games, he was wildly out of form and Barça were far the worse for it. If that groin strain has fully healed and he fires on all cylinders the Spanish league leaders function much better, simple as that. In fact if he does fire up, I’d back them not to lose. Vice versa too.

The ref? Viktor Kassai is a straight shooter. Barça won’t be looking to him for favours. But this is a guy who brings good memories for them – that 1-0 Spain v Germany World Cup semi final (no bookings and no reds in the entire match), a red card for Paul Pogba for stamping on Xavi’s ankle in that Spain 1-0 France match last month, the Champions League final of 2011 when he took an hour to book anyone and Barça’s 4-0 win over Milan this season when, again, only four bookings (one for Barça, Pedro).

To Kassai’s great credit he seems to blend southern and northern European reffing styles – a rarity.

A fine game, Bayern deserve to start favourites, both teams to score. Four goals shared. Enjoy.

  • Betting: Bayern Munich v Barcelona


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Graham Hunter exclusive: Barcelona might struggle but back Cesc Fabregas to score or assist

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European football expert Graham Hunter explains why there are major concerns for Barcelona in their Champions League quarter-final, but why Cesc Fabregas should be backed to continue his red-hot form.

Right now everyone is waiting to see whether or not Leo Messi starts against PSG. Just for the moment I’m far more interested in another kind of weighting. Sometimes the force of pre-match opinion stems from unassailable facts and it’s true to say that, at the Camp Nou, and with two away goals, history favours FC Barcelona.

But there are major provisos.

The weighting, or handicapping, which the Champions League and the natural ageing process have introduced to this tie make it fascinating – and risky for the home team.

To explain. There have been times when Barcelona have not simply been divine to watch, they’ve been an absolute brute to play against.

Particularly during the heights of Pep Guardiola’s reign I loved the mixed zone after the match. You’d interview Barcelona’s opponents and, well before praising the Blaugrana, they’d explain to you what a horrible experience it was when you didn’t have a millisecond to think, not a blink of the eye to just ensure the ball was properly controlled.

Playing Barcelona was like trying to compose a classical symphony in a kids’ nursery – constant harassment, increasing irritability, total futility.

Not now. In each of the four seasons when Barça have won this competition they’ve conceded two goals or fewer across all four quarter-final and semi-final matches.

The two conceded at Parc des Princes indicates that, historically, if Barça ship even one more goal then they are in big trouble.

So, is there something to worry about? Yes. Here’s the weighting.

MASCHERANO AND PUYOL: Neither will feature tonight. Nor will Wayne Rooney who can watch a Made In Chelsea re-run instead

MASCHERANO AND PUYOL: Neither man will feature in the Nou Camp this evening

Carles Puyol has always defied his lack of height, always brought that little bit of extra ‘the badge matters’ to Barça’s displays. But he’s out.

Javier Mascherano is often, albeit not always, a useful deputy at centre back and was a star performer in the 4-0 win over AC Milan last time. He’s out.

Tito Vilanova, just back from cancer treatment in New York, needs to choose between Marc Bartra, Alex Song, Adriano, Busquets and Uncle Tom Cobbley when he chooses Gerard Piqué’s playing partner.

Meanwhile, there’s no escaping that PSG not only possess players to attack the ball aerially with extreme skill and power, they can also call on a number of footballers who use the ball well when putting the ball into the penalty box.

Moreover, Barça’s other kryptonite, pace, is something which PSG have to a reasonable degree. Lucas, particularly, is blindingly quick and Ezequiel Lavezzi has more savvy about when to counter attack than he has blistering pace. But sometimes it’s all about the first few metres in your head, not your feet.

So while Barcelona are at home, have two away goals, possess a terrific Champions League record at the Camp Nou and can boast a handful of World Champions (Xavi, Iniesta, Pedro, Victor Valdés, Busquets, David Villa, Cesc Fabregas and Piqué) there are a couple of specifics in the PSG locker which alter the handicapping.

IF Messi doesn’t start, and he patently wants to given the extra training, extra physio and extra recuperation work he´s undertaken since last week, then Barça are reduced from, I’d still say, the best in the world to a very good team.

IF, into the bargain, PSG have one of those nights when the ball is used well and Alex, Thiago Silva and Zlatan keep winning it in the air then we could have quite a tie.

To the meat.

AB FAB: Cesc Fabregas is on a hot streak and is worth a few quid to score

AB FAB: Cesc Fabregas is on a hot streak and is worth a few quid to score

Cesc Fabregas is, in my opinion, a streak scorer. Not prolific, prolific, but it´s the case that his five-a-side background has made him a very efficient, silky finisher.

And while he talks with a great deal of self-assurance, I’m of the opinion that his self belief fluctuates. Hence the reason he scores in bursts. Get one goal – four or five follow.

The stats tell the story. Four in four in August and September 20007, five in four in December and January 09/10, four in four during February and March 2010, five in four with Barça August and September 2011 then four in three across December and January 2012. Following his first hat trick and two assists at the weekend, back him to score and or assist tonight.

Having said that PSG looked capable of scoring again at the Camp Nou when Alex, Thiago Silva and Zlatan won the ball in the air from set-plays and open play. Lavezzi, too, will feed off the knockdowns the Swede will provide him. Perm through and pick one of them for a goal.

  • Betting: Barcelona v PSG

Juventus v Bayern Munich

Juventus? They simply didn’t show up last week. But Antonio Conte has been firing his men up to fever pitch. He’s told them that Bayern Munich dived in the first tie, that Franz Beckenbuer insulted Gigi Buffon and that Juve embarrassed themselves.

Way to stoke up an atmosphere!

Bayern were limited in their Bundesliga title celebrations on Saturday but, even so, there is often a ‘hangover’. I take Juve to sneak a win, Vucnic to score and Spanish referee Velasco Carballo to be pushed into breaking his record of never having shown a red card in his 29 Uefa ties thus far.

  • Betting: Juventus v Bayern Munich


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Graham Hunter exclusive: Find out who is Real Madrid’s most important player (Hint: It ain’t Ronaldo!)

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European football expert Graham Hunter thinks Real Madrid will struggle without their most influential player, but they should still make the Champions League semi-finals.

Galatasaray v Real Madrid

Although there are some who, incorrectly and unfairly, judge him harshly because of his naked desire to win everything all the time and because his match-face shows every emotion in its starkest form (joy, frustration, anger, self recrimination and, yes, even arrogance) I’m a serious Cristiano Ronaldo fan.

He’s phenomenally gifted, he’s an utterly outstanding professional and off the pitch he’s both bright and articulate. There’s not a great deal more to ask for.

His goal-to-game ratio is redefining, exploding really, what we think the very best striker should be producing and were it not for Leo Messi we’d already be arguing where Ronaldo fits in the all-time pantheon.

As such, the Portuguese is Real Madrid’s most important player – at least when it comes to winning matches.

However he’s not the most important of José Mourinho’s squad when it comes to ensuring that Madrid don’t lose. That’s Xabi Alonso.

XABI ALONSO: The most important member

XABI ALONSO: Without him Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid are disjointed

Particularly when Mourinho uses his preferred formation (preferred as Madrid coach at least) of 4-2-3-1 the importance of the two organising, distributing, defending midfielders who pair in front of the back four is enormous.

Moreover, Alonso is very good there. Without him Madrid consistently look like a puppet with one of its six strings cut – in motion, possibly entertaining, but disjointed.

Order diminishes, confidence drops, decision making becomes less clinical and the tempo often decreases.

He, Sergio Ramos and, quite possibly, Pepe are all going to miss out tonight at the Türk Telecom Arena and I think it’ll cost Madrid. I doubt it will cost them progression to the semi final but it might just cost them a win on the night.

Madrid’s stats against Turkish teams aren’t ample but it’s a fact that they’ve still to win against a Turkish side, Galatasaray or Besiktas, apart from in Spain.

Diego Lopez and Rafa Varane have been standouts in recent months but with a denuded back four (likely no Arbeloa, Ramos or Pepe) and with Alonso absent I think it’s reasonable to take Galatasaray to score – and why not Didier Drogba? So, Madrid to suffer, Madrid to go through, Ronaldo to score, Drogba to score and, I have a sneaking feeling, one of Diego Lopez’s more testing nights.

  • Betting: Galatasaray v Real Madrid

Borussia Dortmund v Malaga

What of Málaga in Dortmund? Well, if you take mood to be as important an initial guide to their chances as the suspensions they suffered in the first leg then it’s decent news.

Most of the key players were rested in the 4-2 defeat at Real Sociedad at the weekend, man after man told me in the Mixed Zone last week after the 0-0 draw against the recently deposed German champions that they were 100% confident of getting a score draw at the Signal Iduna Park.

And one more little note about mood. It was very sad to hear of the death of Manuel Pellegrini’s father on Saturday. The Chilean hid the news from his players, coached the match, flew to Chile for the funeral and should be on the bench tonight. His players, and I mean this word, adore him. Their respect for him as a man and a coach is infinite. With what looks like a 30/70 chance of qualification in front of them their effort for Pellegrini will give them an extra jag.

But they’ll need it. Málaga, like Madrid, have an organising central midfielder, Manuel Iturra, and a centre-back, Weligton, suspended. Dortmund score heavily at home, should have won the first leg and have a superior squad. But  Málaga have only conceded 13 times in 27 Uefa matches and have seven clean sheets in their 12 Champions League outings this season.

IF, and I do mean IF there’s a major shock coming then I’d look to Roque Santa Cruz (a great record of wins and draws against Dortmund for Bayern Munich plus the winner at Signal Iduna back in September 2001) to nick a goal for Málaga. Referee Craig Thomson averages precisely four bookings per Champions League match and wouldn’t have a single red card in the competition had Alonso and Ramos not famously forced  orderings-off against Ajax to ‘clean’ their booking count two seasons ago.

Enjoy your football.

  • Betting: Borussia Dortmund v Malaga


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Graham Hunter exclusive: Barca believe they can beat AC Milan

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Champions League: Barcelona v AC Milan

The cynics, perhaps let’s dub them the realists, will argue it’s all case of ‘too little too late’  for FC Barcelona with regard to putting AC Milan out of the Champions League.

For precisely the last two months there has been a drop in the intensity of Barça’s play, not just defensively with only a couple of clean sheets in that time, but the way in which they can put the pedal to the floor and tear even the best teams apart.

Last week, without a match, interim coach Jordi Roura mixed a little bit of time off with a double stint on Wednesday and pretty high-intensity work during the other training sessions.

This is the moment of the season when, since the beginning of the Guardiola era, the Blaugrana’s form begins to peak for the second time. There is a high priority put on having the turbo-chargers available in November and December, then again in March and April.

However this season the dip in late January, and particularly February, has seemed more pronounced and perhaps the surge will come too late for this tie – particularly taking into account the current scoreline.

Yet the players believe.

MBSBarcelonavMilan

Around the training ground over the last five or six days there has been no slumped shoulders, plenty of positive words and two meetings when the coach, but particularly the senior players, confronted problems, solutions, tactics and general ideas of how to eliminate Milan.

But can Barça really shift from a low gear to the type of Formula 1 performance which can make Milan “fearful” as their legendary coach Arrigo Sacchi says must be the case if the home side is to have any chance?

At this stage over the last four seasons Barça have beaten Bayer Leverkusen 7-1, Arsenal 3-1, Stuttgart 4-0 and Lyon 5-2. If that level of performance is about to arrive then, added to the fact that they have distinctly the better XI, then the Catalans will progress. Anything less and the weight of history, no side with a two-goal deficit and no away goal has gone through, will bear down on them too heavily.

If Andres Iniesta scores any time in this match, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score & Scorecast singles on the match.

  • Betting: Barcelona v AC Milan 
  • Graham Hunter on the Paddy Power Blog


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