Graham Hunter: The devil is in the details if Man City want to beat Barcelona over two legs

Playing at this level of the Champions League is like signing an important contract – it’s all about the small print.

Read the big phrases, get excited by the special-offer clauses, but miss the detail and you’ll be turned over.

You’ll get a rusty Ford Cortina and an loan-shark APR instead of a Range Rover and easy, stable repayments.

Small print, detail, is at the heart of whether Manchester City can eliminate Barcelona this season – as opposed to the series of crucial, naive errors which left them defeated home and away against a far less impressive Barça last term.

Go back to the first leg last February.

Manuel Pellegrini now admits that he was more fixated on not conceding an away goal than he was by prioritising playing on the front foot, putting Tata Martino’s side under pressure – turning it into a rousing, racy English version of a big European night.

Manuel Pellegrini

“Last season we wanted to put the brakes on Barcelona in the first leg because the value of the away goal is almost always determining in the Champions League” Pellegrini revealed at the weekend.

“This time we’ll go for the match from the very outset – albeit with consideration for the fact that we’re playing a dangerous opponent”

That tactic was the first mistake. City surrendered the initiative. Martin Demichelis was given a man-marking job on Leo Messi. Largely he did it well until the 53 minute.

There followed a series of errors from City which turned the entire tie.

Jesus Navas thought he’d been fouled. So did his team mates. City ‘stopped’.

Not stock-still but they relaxed, they expected the whistle. There was a drop in concentration and intensity. Barcelona whisked the ball upfield.

City’s first mistake – assuming that the whistle would go. Not playing flat-out until it did.

The next belonged to Vincent Kompany. Before Navas lost the ball Messi had looked lazy and self-indulgent.

He was isolated upfield, significantly offside. Barely trotting back.

Meanwhile Iniesta was racing out of his own half with the ball at his feet.

Passing immediately to Messi wasn’t an option.

But Kompany wasn’t aware of where the Argentinian striker was. He’d ‘lost’ him, mentally.

Lionel Messi

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So with Iniesta running towards him Kompany did the ‘natural’ thing of jogging backwards to try and get in line with Demichelis in the hope that City’s midfield would intervente make the first attempt to close Iniesta down.

As Kompany urgently jogged backwards, Messi had begun sprinting to try and get onside.

The combined effect, the defender going backwards, Messi running towards him, cut the time needed to get the striker onside.

Iniesta noticed, waited, slid the perfect pass into the striker and suddenly City were sunk.

Demichelis tried to compensate, made the ‘last-man’ tackle and though he was unfortunate that the referee called it a penalty, rather than a free kick, it was suddenly 10-man City v Barcelona with a spot kick.

Details. Small details. Already turning the tie.

Another such was the Neymar substitution. All season he’d played on the left. This time Martino brought him on down the right. In the 16 minutes he was on the pitch he regularly combined with Dani Alves, already playing like a winger, to overwhelm Gael Clichy. Alves nearly scored.

Neither Pellegrini nor City, albeit with ten men, knew how to react. Nothing was done, Neymar and Alves combined again in the match’s last minute and suddenly the single away goal was two. Total disaster, but foreseeable and preventable.

Man City v Barcelona MBS

The second leg was much, much more competitive. City played with a great deal more poise, intelligence and conviction.

Until the key moment.

Cesc Fabregas’ through-ball to his long term ‘partner-in-crime’, Messi, for whom he’d been creating goals since they were 14, should have been intercepted and recycled forward by Joleon Lescott. To do so was simplicity itself.
But somehow he ends up deflecting the pass straight into the path of Messi who scores. 3-0 and goodnight Vienna.

There’s a haunting image of Pellegrini, in the Camp Nou stands because of his red card in the first leg, head in hands. Frustrated, desolate. Disbelieving.

There are individual elements which, objectively, push forward the likelihood of City performing much more dangerously this season.

Kun Agüero had zero impact a year ago – now he’s fit and in lovely form.

Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko

City intermittently posed a real goal threat in both of the ties last season, Edin Dzeko in particular pulling a brilliant save from Victor Valdés – already a three time Champions League winner. At that stage teh Catalan already had 104 outings in the competition under his belt.

Tonight, Ter Stegen, 22, [six Champions League matches] will keep goal for Barcelona. Patently a very good young keeper, superb with his feet, Manuel Pellegrini’s scouts will have noticed him flapping at corners and cross balls this season – noticeably in conceding the second goal in a 3-2 defeat at PSG in the group.

No Touré tonight – but unquestionably the possibility of Kompany, Fernandinho, Dzeko, Bony or Lampard adding a headed goal at some stage in the two ties. Stegen faces a test of fire.

What about a health-check for those who don’t see Barça regularly?

Neymar’s form this season has been sublime – as has his partnership with Messi. “We look for each other with the ball, all the time” Messi told me about the intuitive link-play which was such a part in the 42 goals scored in the eleven straight wins between defeat to David Moyes Real Sociedad and the appalling performance in losing 0-1 at home to Málaga on Saturday.

BUT, for the last three or four performances the Brazilian’s accuracy, ruthlessness in front of goal and consistency have dipped – noticeably. Bad timing.

Suárez has been playing with wonderful cleverness and selflessness – a modern Henrik Larsson. The only thing missing, now, is a clinical finish. Will it come now?

Luis Suarez

Rakitic has been the element to make everything tick. “Barcelona are less elaborate now than they were at the peak of Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets” Pellegrini says. “More direct .. but still as dangerous because of the quality of their players”

Rakitic is one of those footballers who seems to be everywhere, can tackle. pass, play divine wall-passes, has a goal in him and won’t be shy of the power of English football.

His form is a central building block for Barcelona. If he’s dynamic they press and win the ball and use it much more dangerously.

I suspect it’s worth thinking about both teams to score, possibly twice each, worth thinking about Kun and Messi to exchange ‘anything you can do I can do better’ goal-moments.

If City make similar errors, if they haven’t learned, matured – they’ll be beaten twice.

If Barcelona play anything like they did against Málaga they’ll really suffer at the Etihad. In fact, in that case, they’ll be beaten.

But when that ‘Champions-hymn’ shimmers out, it’s Pavlovian for Barça. They’ll be up for it and we’ll have fun watching this tie. Better balanced than last season, more goals, but everything still revolving on details. Tiny details.

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[video] Graham Hunter gives 3 reasons why Real Madrid will beat Manchester United (and a 40/1 tip)

La Liga expert and all-round good guy Graham Hunter put in a Skype call with the Paddy Power Blog on Sunday night. We asked Graham where he saw the value in the betting for Manchester United vs Real Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday night at Old Trafford. As you’d expect from someone who spends an unhealthy amount of time watching Spanish football, he’s got a few interesting insights ahead of the game….

[Scroll down to watch video]

1. It’s got something to do with a former favourite son at Anfield

Xabi Alonso

IN THE THICK OF IT: Expect some heated exchanges from former Anfield hero Xabi Alonso

2. A little bit of this fella, of course

Ronaldo

THE MAIN MAN: There’s only one reason Real Madrid forked out on Ronaldo

3. …and might well finish with these

Wayne Rooney

ON THE SPOT: Let’s hope Manchester United have been practicing penalties. Real have…

Graham Hunter’s tip: Real Madrid to beat Manchester United on penalties @ 40/1 click here

MAN-UTD_REAL-MADRID_MBS


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Graham Hunter exclusive: Barca believe they can beat AC Milan

Graham Hunter byline

Champions League: Barcelona v AC Milan

The cynics, perhaps let’s dub them the realists, will argue it’s all case of ‘too little too late’  for FC Barcelona with regard to putting AC Milan out of the Champions League.

For precisely the last two months there has been a drop in the intensity of Barça’s play, not just defensively with only a couple of clean sheets in that time, but the way in which they can put the pedal to the floor and tear even the best teams apart.

Last week, without a match, interim coach Jordi Roura mixed a little bit of time off with a double stint on Wednesday and pretty high-intensity work during the other training sessions.

This is the moment of the season when, since the beginning of the Guardiola era, the Blaugrana’s form begins to peak for the second time. There is a high priority put on having the turbo-chargers available in November and December, then again in March and April.

However this season the dip in late January, and particularly February, has seemed more pronounced and perhaps the surge will come too late for this tie – particularly taking into account the current scoreline.

Yet the players believe.

MBSBarcelonavMilan

Around the training ground over the last five or six days there has been no slumped shoulders, plenty of positive words and two meetings when the coach, but particularly the senior players, confronted problems, solutions, tactics and general ideas of how to eliminate Milan.

But can Barça really shift from a low gear to the type of Formula 1 performance which can make Milan “fearful” as their legendary coach Arrigo Sacchi says must be the case if the home side is to have any chance?

At this stage over the last four seasons Barça have beaten Bayer Leverkusen 7-1, Arsenal 3-1, Stuttgart 4-0 and Lyon 5-2. If that level of performance is about to arrive then, added to the fact that they have distinctly the better XI, then the Catalans will progress. Anything less and the weight of history, no side with a two-goal deficit and no away goal has gone through, will bear down on them too heavily.

If Andres Iniesta scores any time in this match, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score & Scorecast singles on the match.

  • Betting: Barcelona v AC Milan 
  • Graham Hunter on the Paddy Power Blog


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Sven to beat successor McClaren

Two former England managers go head-to-head in the stand out fixture in the Championship this Saturday, as Nottingham Forest entertain Leicester in a big Midlands derby. A lot is expected from both Steve McClaren and Sven Goran Eriksson, who will come out at the City Ground? We take a look at this Saturdays fixtures and try and work out the best bets in an unpredictable league.

Nottingham Forest v Leicester

Both teams have not started as they would have hoped, with both in the bottom half of the table after just one win in their opening three games.

Leicester have recorded back-to-back home defeats and the Championship’s big spenders need to respond.

Forest, meanwhile, have scored just one goal in their opening three league fixtures and have brought in Matt Derbyshire and Ishmael Miller to try and resolve the issue.

The home support may work against the home side and don’t be surprised if Leicester bounce back in fine style.
Leicester to win @ 19/10.

Southampton v Millwall

Saints top the table after three matches and are already looking like a promoted team that will be towards the top end of the table rather than struggling against the drop. Even the exit of Alex Chamberlain has done little to scupper the St Mary’s hopes.

Despite picking up five points in three games, Millwall have been leaking too many goals and that will probably be their Achilles heel.
Lambert to score at anytime @ 6/5.

Brighton v Blackpool

The Seagulls seem to have taken to their new ground like a duck to water and they’re away form has been impressive as well – with wins at Portsmouth and Cardiff.

This will prove a stern test, though, against a Blackpool team capable of bouncing back to the Premier League at the first time of asking.

Kevin Phillips has found his goalscoring boots, so the rest of the league better watch out!
Draw/Draw HT/FT @ 4/1.

Derby v Doncaster

Nigel Clough’s men have been one of the surprise packages of the season so far, having been stuck in a relegation fight for much of last term.

The Rams have picked up maximum points from their opening three games and have kept clean sheets in their last two matches.

Doncaster have been hit hard by two key injuries, to Billy Sharp and James Coppinger, and an already thin squad is struggling to cope in their absence with Rovers currently bottom.
Derby to win @ 5/6.

Burnley v Cardiff

Both teams challenged for the play-offs last season, but it’s hard to know how the much-changed sides will progress this term.

Cardiff look to have the stronger of the two squads and look more dangerous away from home when they can hit teams on the break. Kenny Miller and Rob Earnshaw could prove too much to handle for a Clarets backline that is leaking goals.
Draw/Cardiff HT/FT @ 5/1.

Hull v Crystal Palace

The Tigers’ poor home form has followed a familiar path from last season and two KC defeats to Blackpool and then Macclesfield in the Carling Cup don’t bode well.

But Nigel Pearson’s squad should be strong enough to beat a Palace team, who despite sitting sixth, will rely heavily on their home form this season.
Koren to score at anytime @ 3/1.

Bristol City v Portsmouth

These two teams sum up this division – entertaining and unpredictable!

Having lost their opening two matches heavily, City bounced back with an unlikely win at Leicester.

Pompey meanwhile, have won one, drawn one and lost one of their opening three matches.

Nicky Maynard is the stand out player in this one, although Dave Kitson’s height is likely to cause the home team problems at the back.
Maynard – First Goalscorer @ 5/1.

Coventry v Watford

Both of these two teams sit in the bottom three at present – Coventry have lost all three of their matches to date while Watford have just one point from a possible nine.

Watford have a better squad on paper, but Coventry are always difficult to break down and may have enough to sneak a win.
Coventry to win @ 11/8.

Reading v Barnsley

The Royals are still trying to bounce back from the loss of key players Matt Mills and Shane Long, but they should have too much for a struggling Barnsley outfit.

Keith Hill accepted the Tykes were beaten at home by a much better team in Middlesbrough in midweek, so a trip to the Madejski looks a daunting prospect.
Reading to win 2-0 @ 11/2

Peterborough v Ipswich (5:20pm)

Darren Ferguson’s men have surprised many with their solid start to the new campaign, with four points from their opening three games. Posh have plenty of goals in them, but so do Ipswich and this could be a high scoring affair.

Michael Chopra got two on the opening day and is due another goal this weekend.
Chopra to score at anytime @ 3/2.

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Braga must bore to beat Porto

It is hard to look past a Porto victory in Wednesday’s Europa League Final in Dublin, but Domingos Paciencia’s Sporting Braga (11/4 Outright Winners) will make it very tough for the odds-on favourites.

The Braga coach has announced that this will be his last game in charge and, while he is not expected to be short of job offers for next season, it will be a huge feather in his cap if he can mastermind an upset.

However, his only chance of stifling a Porto side (4/9 Match Betting) that smashed 17 goals past Spartak Moscow and Villarreal in the quarter-final and semi-final ties, is to instruct his players to defend deep and hit the Portuguese champions on the counter-attack.

It is a tactic which Braga have utilised well in matches where they have been underdogs this season, notably in the Champions League play-off round against Sevilla at the Sanchez Pizjuan (4-3) and in the Group H home clash with Arsenal (2-0).

Paciencia’s approach to getting Braga through the knockout rounds was similar, although less spectacular, as the Minho men recorded narrow 2-1 and 1-0 aggregate victories over Lech Poznan and Liverpool to reach the last eight.

They then relied on the away goals rule to get past Dynamo Kiev (1-1) and Benfica (2-2), but that cannot come to their rescue in the winner takes all Dublin clash at the Aviva Stadium.

Paciencia cannot afford to let Porto’s pacy, creative players cause havoc by running at his back four and in order to shackle Hulk, Varela and Cristian Rodriguez he will deploy a 4-5-1 formation with Alan (11/1 First Goalscorer) or Lima (9/1) the likely lone frontman.

Braga fans have seen the goals dry up since Matheus, scorer of both goals against Arsenal, was sold to Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk in January.

They have managed to find the net only 20 times in 21 domestic league and Europa League matches since the start of February, while Porto by contrast have scored 55 in that same period  – Porto 11/10 in Handicap (-1).

While stopping the service to Colombian hitman Radomel Falcao (7/2 First Goalscorer) will be key, Braga must also maintain their discipline and defend any set pieces they will inevitably give away resolutely.

It is a lot to ask with the amount of attacking talent in the Porto ranks and, should they concede an early goal, it will need a Plan B from the coach to get back into the match.

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Can the Trotters beat the Potters?

With all the attention surrounding Saturday’s eagerly-awaited all-Manchester FA Cup semi-final at Wembley, we should not forget that two of the Premier League’s middle of the road sides are hoping to make some history by reaching the final when Bolton face Stoke on Sunday afternoon (4pm Kick-off).

Owen Coyle is looking to guide the Wanderers to their first FA Cup final since 1958 – when they defeated Manchester United 2-0 at Wembley thanks to a double from Nat Lofthouse.

Sadly, Lofthouse passed away earlier this year so what a fitting tribute it would be to the Trotters legend if his beloved Bolton could reach the final where, ironically, they could be up against the Red Devils (13/8 Man U v Bolton Name The Finalists) just like 53 years ago.

Coyle will be missing the potency of the cup-tied on-loan striker Daniel Sturridge so he will have to pitch Rodrigo or Ivan Klasnic (15/8 Anytime Goalscorer) into his starting XI for the game.

Midfielder Mark Davies is expected to be included in the squad after returning to training following an ankle problem. But Stuart Holden, Sean Davis and Sam Ricketts remain sidelined through injury.

However, four-times FA Cup winners Bolton (9/2 Outright) go into the contest in fairly good form having kept six clean sheets in their last nine FA Cup games and they have lost only two of their last nine matches in all competitions.

Stoke have never played in an FA Cup final (Evens To Qualify) after falling at the semi-final stage in 1899 and in the 1970-71 and 1971-72 seasons when, on both occasions, they lost to Arsenal in a replay.

Potters boss Tony Pulis will stick with Denmark goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen, who replaces regular number one Asmir Begovic, because he has been a regular in previous rounds.

Striker John Carew (8/1 First Goalscorer) could come into contention following a four-match absence with a back problem.

Stoke have won, lost and drawn in their last three Premier League games, but have managed to score in their last nine games against Bolton (19/10 To keep A Clean Sheet) to give them hope.

Bolton enjoy the better of their previous FA Cup meetings with three wins from five, with one draw and one win for Stoke, while both sides have won on home soil in this season?s Premier League encounters.

Looking at the record between the two sides it is impossible to pick a winner and for that reason I am expecting it to be a long afternoon at Wembley with a penalty shoot-out (10/1 Bolton & Stoke To Win On Penalties) not beyond the realms of possibility.

Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 9/4
Value Bet: 1-1 Correct Score @ 11/2.

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How Spurs can beat Arsenal to Premiership third spot

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Arsenal FC 150x150 How Spurs can beat Arsenal to Premiership third spotAll the midweek excitement in the Premiership centred on Tottenham’s win over Manchester City which guaranteed the North London club their first crack at the Champions League. However, they still have something more to play for.

Spurs win took them to within two points of Arsenal who lie in third place. If Harry Redknapp’s side could overtake the Gunners it would be worth more than just bragging rights in North London.

Though finishing fourth in the table offers a shot at the main European competition, the fourth English participant has to go through tough qualifiers to reach the lucrative group stage.

Arsenal had to go via that route in this campaign and Arsene Wenger would desperately like to avoid that again, as the games take place almost before the league season has begun and new men are being bedded in.

  • You can bet on this outcome: Can Arsenal Finish Third?

The new rules adopted for the Champions League qualifiers mean that the last English side could face opponents from top leagues like Italy, Spain or Germany.

Harry RedknappThe Gunners still hold the advantage over their bitter rivals, although they have to assume that Spurs will take maximum points from their trip to Burnley on the final day of the season.

Unless Burnley suffer a complete collapse, a point in their home game against Fulham will be enough for Arsenal as they are currently ten goals to the good on goal difference.

With the Europa League Final coming up, Roy Hodgson is very unlikely to send out a full strength Fulham team but that can have its dangers for Arsenal. There will be players trying to clinch a place on the bench for the final against Athletico Madrid- and they will be more motivated than is normal for a mid-table side.

  • You can bet on this outcome: Can Spurs Finish Third?

Other members of the side will relish the chance to start at the Emirates and players like striker Erik Nevland could see this as his last game in the Premiership- and want to go out in style.

The pressure is all on Arsenal to make sure they don’t slip up at the death. Their players will be kicking themselves for allowing this situation to develop when third place seemed a certainty just a few weeks ago.

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Roma Must Beat Parma to Keep Scuddeto Dream Alive

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inter roma Roma Must Beat Parma to Keep Scuddeto Dream AliveA surprise defeat at home to Sampdoria last weekend saw Roma hand Inter Milan the initiative in the title race and nothing but a win will do the Roman side this Saturday against Parma ahead of next week’s crunch showdown with Inter at the San Siro.

Jose Mourinho’s troops are two points ahead of Roma at the top of Serie A and must travel to Rome on Sunday to take on an improved Lazio side still fighting for survival. Roma will be hoping their city rivals can do them a favour but they know first they must leave Parma with three points.

Parma currently lie 10th in mid-table mediocrity with nothing left to play for and have not beaten Roma since 2005. When these two sides last met just before Christmas, Roma ran out 2-0 winners.

This match will be a typically tight Italian affair with Roma not being a prolific goal scoring side and Parma averaging only 1.09 goals per home match this season, so the 2.10 on offer for under 2.5 goals with PartyBets looks a good value bet.

The incentive for Roma to win here will ensure they leave with all three points so expect Roma to shut up shop and nick a goal or two at the other end through the attacking threat of Totti, Rossi, or leading scorer Vucinic.

Back Roma to win to nil at a decent priced 2.51 or go with a 2-0 victory for the title contenders at 6.50 with PartyBets.com.

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