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Graham Hunter: Zinedine Zidane is a mere plaster over the gaping sore that is Florentino Perez

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Twas the night before Christmas …. well, it was exactly eight nights before Christmas.

Florentino Pérez, having already confirmed Rafa Benitez’s job security just three weeks earlier, following the 4-0 thrashing by Barça, went on the El Larguero [‘Crossbar’] show on Spanish Radio.

He said, and I quote:

“Benítez is not going to be replaced by Zidane. The media have decided this is happening but it’s Real Madrid who name the coaches so Benitez will not be sacked and replaced by Zidane. He came to resolve our troubles -Rafa is the solution, not the problem.”

That was precisely eighteen days ago.

Since when Real Madrid have played three, won two, drawn one [at Valencia where they lost last year] and scored 15 goals. Sacking form?? Only on Planet Florentino

RafaelBenitez

Back on December 17 the Madrid President added:

“We chose Benítez from a large number of candidates because he’s the right man to sort this squad’s specific problems.

“From last January until the summer we were in free-fall – he was the cure. “If we choose him as the right guy there’s no way we can say after three months that he’s got to go! “We have to give him time”.

‘No way’ right?

Rafa should have been packing his bags there and then. White club speak with forked tongue. And this is a mess of Los Blancos’ own making.

Sacking Carlo Ancelotti after a Champions League, a Copa del Rey, a World Club Cup a European Supercup and another Champions League semi final was an aberration. [Florentino to blame].

A point which both Sergio Ramos and Cristiano Ronaldo made at the end of last season.

Zidane with Ancelotti

Once Ancelotti was sacked, appointing Zidane there and then [a job offer which the Frenchman stated he wouldn’t have turned down] would have been more strategic, fairer on Zizou and more intelligent. [Florentino to blame].

Appointing Rafa Benitez, his obvious talents aside, was like putting a fox in the hen-house. [Florentino to blame]

Everything he was good at, all his beliefs, every single career landmark which vouched for his talent flew directly against where this squad is right now.

Directly against what the fans were crying out for.

This Madrid squad needs management with finesse – it needs unifying, it needs fine-calibration and it needs sufficient commitment to the cause so that the whole becomes greater than the sum of the parts rather than less than the sum as it is right now.

Benitez is the gruff, distant, ‘do it that way because I told you to!’ brand of manager who has won perhaps two, maybe three, outright fans in his main group of players. [Bale, Keylor and Nacho]

The vast majority of the rest of Madrid’s highly pampered players are either indifferent to him… or disbelievers.

The fans? They wanted verve, flair, daring, wins, goals, attacking play. And they wanted something to distract the world’s affection away from Barça

Albeit that Benitez’s Madrid are through to a very winnable last sixteen tie in the Champions League and sit only four points off the top of La Liga [decent positions for January of a first season] the cautious brand of football he proposed simply didn’t fit with the increasingly angry and voluble supporters.Will He Manage

Let’s See What You Can Do Zizou

So, Zidane takes over.

On the plus side his first clutch of fixtures are extremely winnable – a factor in Perez deciding to act now.

Before Madrid face Liga leaders Atlético in late February they play Deportivo [H], Sporting [H], Betis [A], Espanyol [H], Granada [A], Athletic [H] and Málaga [A].

Deportivo are excelling themselves, Athletic are much more formidable than for some seasons and care is needed away at hostile Andaluz football grounds.

But it’s not brutally unfair to suggest that Madrid could, perhaps should, win all those games and give Zizou a 21 point salute before the Madrid derby.

Zidane takes a 46% win rate from his work with Real Madrid’s ‘B’ team, Castilla, and is the youngest Madrid coach since Jorge Valdano twenty years ago. Nobody else would have been given the job based on those stats.

Valdano immediately pointed out: “Zidane is a risky appointment because of his lack of experience”.

That’s both fair and accurate.

But Zidane is also a buffer between the root of all that ails this club, Florentino Pérez, and the increasingly hostile Madrid fans.

zidane_volley

Zizou is a legend, is the emblem of Madrid’s historic ninth European Cup win thanks to that dazzling goal at Hampden and he’s a football man of intelligence, calm, talent and elegance.

If it feels good to the rest of us to have Zizou back in the frontline – just imagine how it must feel to the fans and some of the players?

Florentino’s actions have been guided by him looking for an opiate for the masses – gifting them a club legend.

So that their angry gaze will divert from the President.

But, bear this in mind. When the Frenchman played his last game for Madrid it was against Villarreal in May 2006.

The game ended in a 3-3 draw which was a delight for the neutral to watch but a bitter disappointment to Madrid and their fans.

It was Zidane’s farewell to the Bernabéu but vast hordes of the Madridistas didn’t care.

They streamed out of the stadium in disgust at the scoreline. Most of the players simply trooped off, shoulders sagging.

I well remember David Beckham and Iker Casillas almost dragging the rest of the squad back to the centre of the pitch to help pay homage to Zidane as the more honourable fans who had stayed behind at least applauded this fabulous talent and bade him adios!

It was a dishonourable discharge, completely unfitting for such an iconic Madrid player – let down by supporters and team-mates alike after the final whistle.

And a warning to Zizou about how fickle this club can be, will be, if the results and performances aren’t something approaching perfection.

As for Florentino’s backing – with a friend like that, who needs enemies?

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Graham Hunter: The devil is in the details if Man City want to beat Barcelona over two legs

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Playing at this level of the Champions League is like signing an important contract – it’s all about the small print.

Read the big phrases, get excited by the special-offer clauses, but miss the detail and you’ll be turned over.

You’ll get a rusty Ford Cortina and an loan-shark APR instead of a Range Rover and easy, stable repayments.

Small print, detail, is at the heart of whether Manchester City can eliminate Barcelona this season – as opposed to the series of crucial, naive errors which left them defeated home and away against a far less impressive Barça last term.

Go back to the first leg last February.

Manuel Pellegrini now admits that he was more fixated on not conceding an away goal than he was by prioritising playing on the front foot, putting Tata Martino’s side under pressure – turning it into a rousing, racy English version of a big European night.

Manuel Pellegrini

“Last season we wanted to put the brakes on Barcelona in the first leg because the value of the away goal is almost always determining in the Champions League” Pellegrini revealed at the weekend.

“This time we’ll go for the match from the very outset – albeit with consideration for the fact that we’re playing a dangerous opponent”

That tactic was the first mistake. City surrendered the initiative. Martin Demichelis was given a man-marking job on Leo Messi. Largely he did it well until the 53 minute.

There followed a series of errors from City which turned the entire tie.

Jesus Navas thought he’d been fouled. So did his team mates. City ‘stopped’.

Not stock-still but they relaxed, they expected the whistle. There was a drop in concentration and intensity. Barcelona whisked the ball upfield.

City’s first mistake – assuming that the whistle would go. Not playing flat-out until it did.

The next belonged to Vincent Kompany. Before Navas lost the ball Messi had looked lazy and self-indulgent.

He was isolated upfield, significantly offside. Barely trotting back.

Meanwhile Iniesta was racing out of his own half with the ball at his feet.

Passing immediately to Messi wasn’t an option.

But Kompany wasn’t aware of where the Argentinian striker was. He’d ‘lost’ him, mentally.

Lionel Messi

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So with Iniesta running towards him Kompany did the ‘natural’ thing of jogging backwards to try and get in line with Demichelis in the hope that City’s midfield would intervente make the first attempt to close Iniesta down.

As Kompany urgently jogged backwards, Messi had begun sprinting to try and get onside.

The combined effect, the defender going backwards, Messi running towards him, cut the time needed to get the striker onside.

Iniesta noticed, waited, slid the perfect pass into the striker and suddenly City were sunk.

Demichelis tried to compensate, made the ‘last-man’ tackle and though he was unfortunate that the referee called it a penalty, rather than a free kick, it was suddenly 10-man City v Barcelona with a spot kick.

Details. Small details. Already turning the tie.

Another such was the Neymar substitution. All season he’d played on the left. This time Martino brought him on down the right. In the 16 minutes he was on the pitch he regularly combined with Dani Alves, already playing like a winger, to overwhelm Gael Clichy. Alves nearly scored.

Neither Pellegrini nor City, albeit with ten men, knew how to react. Nothing was done, Neymar and Alves combined again in the match’s last minute and suddenly the single away goal was two. Total disaster, but foreseeable and preventable.

Man City v Barcelona MBS

The second leg was much, much more competitive. City played with a great deal more poise, intelligence and conviction.

Until the key moment.

Cesc Fabregas’ through-ball to his long term ‘partner-in-crime’, Messi, for whom he’d been creating goals since they were 14, should have been intercepted and recycled forward by Joleon Lescott. To do so was simplicity itself.
But somehow he ends up deflecting the pass straight into the path of Messi who scores. 3-0 and goodnight Vienna.

There’s a haunting image of Pellegrini, in the Camp Nou stands because of his red card in the first leg, head in hands. Frustrated, desolate. Disbelieving.

There are individual elements which, objectively, push forward the likelihood of City performing much more dangerously this season.

Kun Agüero had zero impact a year ago – now he’s fit and in lovely form.

Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko

City intermittently posed a real goal threat in both of the ties last season, Edin Dzeko in particular pulling a brilliant save from Victor Valdés – already a three time Champions League winner. At that stage teh Catalan already had 104 outings in the competition under his belt.

Tonight, Ter Stegen, 22, [six Champions League matches] will keep goal for Barcelona. Patently a very good young keeper, superb with his feet, Manuel Pellegrini’s scouts will have noticed him flapping at corners and cross balls this season – noticeably in conceding the second goal in a 3-2 defeat at PSG in the group.

No Touré tonight – but unquestionably the possibility of Kompany, Fernandinho, Dzeko, Bony or Lampard adding a headed goal at some stage in the two ties. Stegen faces a test of fire.

What about a health-check for those who don’t see Barça regularly?

Neymar’s form this season has been sublime – as has his partnership with Messi. “We look for each other with the ball, all the time” Messi told me about the intuitive link-play which was such a part in the 42 goals scored in the eleven straight wins between defeat to David Moyes Real Sociedad and the appalling performance in losing 0-1 at home to Málaga on Saturday.

BUT, for the last three or four performances the Brazilian’s accuracy, ruthlessness in front of goal and consistency have dipped – noticeably. Bad timing.

Suárez has been playing with wonderful cleverness and selflessness – a modern Henrik Larsson. The only thing missing, now, is a clinical finish. Will it come now?

Luis Suarez

Rakitic has been the element to make everything tick. “Barcelona are less elaborate now than they were at the peak of Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets” Pellegrini says. “More direct .. but still as dangerous because of the quality of their players”

Rakitic is one of those footballers who seems to be everywhere, can tackle. pass, play divine wall-passes, has a goal in him and won’t be shy of the power of English football.

His form is a central building block for Barcelona. If he’s dynamic they press and win the ball and use it much more dangerously.

I suspect it’s worth thinking about both teams to score, possibly twice each, worth thinking about Kun and Messi to exchange ‘anything you can do I can do better’ goal-moments.

If City make similar errors, if they haven’t learned, matured – they’ll be beaten twice.

If Barcelona play anything like they did against Málaga they’ll really suffer at the Etihad. In fact, in that case, they’ll be beaten.

But when that ‘Champions-hymn’ shimmers out, it’s Pavlovian for Barça. They’ll be up for it and we’ll have fun watching this tie. Better balanced than last season, more goals, but everything still revolving on details. Tiny details.

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Is Manchester City’s title bid over?

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The last round of fixtures dealt a body-blow to Manchester City’s hopes of landing their first league title since 1968, but is the top prize now out of reach for Roberto Mancini’s expensively assembled side?

Earlier in the campaign it looked as if City were going to storm the title but with just one win in their last four league fixtures, it seems safe to say nerves are starting to jangle at the Etihad Stadium, while fierce rivals Manchester United have, predictably, hit top form at exactly the right time.

The Old Trafford outfit have recorded nine victories in their last 10 Premier League games and have won their last seven on the spin, to take a five-point lead at the top of the title with just seven games remaining.

Manchester United are now 1/8 to secure the Premier League title this season with Totesport, while City can be backed at 5/1.

However, Mancini hasn’t given up on the top domestic prize just yet, but he concedes City need to win all seven of their remaining fixtures if they are to seal Premier League glory.

“We have seven games – 21 points. I think with 92 points we will win the title,” explained the Italian

“We should be strong, I believe always. The message is always the same – we will do everything to win this title.”

On paper United certainly have the easier run-in, but it is getting to that stage of the season where strange results crop up as the various sides battle for either European football or survival.

Indeed, United’s next two fixtures are against two sides battling the drop.  The Old Trafford outfit host QPR on Sunday and travel to Wigan on April 11, with both the Rs and the Latics deep in trouble there is the potential for an upset – and both are capable of taking points from the top sides, as QPR demonstrated with their win over Arsenal and Wigan with their recent win over Liverpool.

United then host Aston Villa, who are in danger of being dragged into the relegation battle, and Everton – a side who have managed to upset Sir Alex Ferguson’s men in the past, and a team who thrive on the big occasion against the best in the league.

The Manchester derby then takes place at the Etihad Stadium in April 30, in what will be a must-win encounter if City are still involved in the hunt for the title.

United’s final two games see them host Swansea before a trip to Sunderland on the final day of the campaign, with neither the Swans or the Black Cats in danger of relegation or in a position to challenge for European football.

City’s run in sees them travel to Arsenal this weekend, and the Gunners are also in desperate need of the points as they continue their battle for a top four finish.

Mancini’s side then host West Brom and face trips to Norwich and Wolves before they host their title rivals. City travel to Newcastle in the penultimate game of the season before they host QPR on the final day, in what could be a huge fixture for both teams as the west London outfit may need to get a result to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.

United are certainly in the driving seat, but a former star may come back to haunt them.  Carlos Tevez has now found a path back into the City first-team and if the Argentine striker can find the kind of form he displayed last season after a spell in the wilderness, or the golf-courses in Argentina if widespread reports are to be believed, the Etihad Stadium outfit could yet come out on top, but they are relying on a United slip-up.

The Old Trafford side are 1/6 to beat QPR this weekend, a win for the Hoops is 12/1 and the draw is 5/1.

Manchester City are 13/8 to secure a win at the Emirates on Sunday against an Arsenal side who are unbeaten at home since January 22, when United sealed a 2-1 win in north London.  The hosts are 11/8 to take all three points and the draw can be backed at 11/5.

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Royals to reign over Clarets

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Friday’s Championship match pits two of the in-form teams in the division, Reading and Burnley, against one another as the battle for a play-off spot heats up.

The Royals have been steadily climbing the table and currently occupy that coveted sixth place, however, Burnley are desperately trying to claw their back into the play-off picture and three points could go a long way to helping their cause.

These two former Premier League clubs made poor stars to the season but have enjoyed an impressive turnaround in fortunes, Reading winning eight of the last ten to catapult themselves back into the top six.

The Royals came within the width of a post to securing a return to the top flight last season, losing out to Swansea in the play-off final.

As a result of their failure to make it back into the Premier League Reading were forced to sell off the likes of Shane Long and Matt Mills in order to balance the books. It was no surprise then that Reading made a slow start to the season, which has picked up recently following the takeover of Thames Valley Sports Investment.

The takeover by the Russian-backed consortium has given the whole club a lift, especially after they persuaded star winger Jimmy Kebe to sign a new deal.

As far as recent form goes the Royals have produced a mixed bag of results at home, losing to Stevenage in the FA Cup but battering West Ham and Brighton 3-0 in the league.

When they do win at home the Royals have kept clean sheets in six out of seven matches recently. As a result Reading to win 1-0 at 6/1 and 2-0 at 7/1 could well be worthwhile bets.

A look back at recent meetings between the two teams suggests Reading should win this one, bettering Burnley in their last four meetings.

However, the Clarets have happy memories of the Madejski Stadium having secured a place in the play-off final there in 2009. Burnley were ultimately promoted, but have struggled since coming straight back down the following season.

The board at Turf Moor decided to bring Eddie Howe in as manager in a bid to rebuild the club and after a shaky start their patience finally seems to be paying off. Burnley have lost three of the last 14 in the Championship, winning six of those games to move within five points and four places of Reading and the play-offs.

The Clarets picked up another three points against Barnsley at home in midweek, but it is their away form that has probably been more impressive, winning at the likes of Middlesbrough, Hull City, West Ham and Brighton in recent months.

Howe’s men are 11/4 to claim another victory on the road and with their crippling injury crisis finally starting to ease this price might tempt a few. Reading are 4/5, with the draw 12/5, and as previously mentioned the Royals to win to nil is the best bet if you fancy Brian McDermott’s men.

The Royals look to have the momentum, but as many punters have learned the outcome of matches in the Championship are tough to predict, especially when two in-form clubs meet.

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5 things we learned over Xmas

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The traditional Christmas fixtures are in full swing, here we look at some key moments.

1. Tottenham can muscle in on title race

With Arsenal and Chelsea both dropping points over Christmas, the onus was on Spurs (14/1 – Premier League outright) in Tuesday’s late game to prove they have what it takes to rival the two Manchester clubs in the title race in the second half of the season.

And Harry Redknapp’s men did not disappoint. After being held to a goalless draw in the first half at Norwich, Spurs eventually overcame the Canaries in the second half to record a valuable 2-0 win. The three points kept them seven points behind both United and City with a game in hand and they look well placed to mount a serious title bid in 2012.

Gareth Bale scored both goals to see off Norwich and he appears to be hitting top form at just the right time while Luka Modric, Scott Parker and Emmanuel Adebayor are all impressing.

Tougher tests than Carrow Road await for the north Londoners but they look strong throughout their squad and can muscle in on the Manchester-dominated top two places over the coming months.

2. United in no mood to give up title easily

The way Manchester City (4/5 PL outright) started the season, many pundits were predicting the Eastlands outfit could have the Premier League title wrapped up by Easter. The 6-1 demolition of United (5/4) at Old Trafford in the autumn only served to add further belief to that train of thought as Sergio Aguero, David Silva, Mario Balotelli and co were running riot.

However, the heavy home defeat to their city rivals has acted as a massive wake-up call for United and they have moved level on 45 points at the top with City following an impressive run of form.

Yes, they went out of the Champions League at the group stage but a run of eight wins from their last nine league games proves they have well and truly got the City shocker out of their system.

Consecutive 5-0 wins over Fulham and Wigan have only highlighted that further and United appear back to their menacing best.

3. Relegation race is as tight as ever

With just 10 points separating the bottom half of the table, this season’s relegation scrap could be just as tight as last year.

Blackburn (4/9 to be relegated) picked up an impressive point at Liverpool but stayed bottom – just a point behind struggling Bolton (8/13) and two off Wigan (4/6). At Anfield, Rovers proved they have the fighting spirit in them to stay up but will need plenty more if they are to eventually beat the drop.

Bolton, on the other hand, are in a bad way at the moment and the Boxing Day reverse at home to Newcastle cranked the pressure up further on boss Owen Coyle. With Gary Cahill set to leave next month, they need a fresh injection of talent and Coyle must get the Trotters motivated again if they are move up the table.

As for the rest, anyone from Norwich (4/1) down could easily get dragged into the scrap in what is sure to be a compelling second half of the season in the bottom half.

4. Liverpool need a goalscorer

Liverpool’s Boxing Day draw at home to bottom-club Blackburn highlighted various things but the most obvious is that they are craving an out-and-out goalscorer.

The Reds have top-four aspirations this season (5/2 – top 4 finish) and remain in the hunt at the halfway stage but their lack of firepower is currently costing them. Again against Rovers, like in several other games in which they have dropped points this season, Kenny Dalglish’s side carved out enough chances to have won comfortably but somehow ended up with just the one goal and another 1-1 draw.

Luis Suarez is more of a playmaker than clinical centre-forward while Andy Carroll still looks nothing like the player he was last season for Newcastle with just three goals all season. Craig Bellamy will get goals but is unlikely to be given a regular run in the side while Dirk Kuyt, last season’s top scorer, has yet to find the back of the net in the league this season.

With Suarez facing an eight-game ban, Dalglish is looking at his options in the transfer window and don’t be surprised to see him add a striker to his ranks to help improve the chances to goals conversion rate that is currently badly letting his side down.

5. There are no easy games in the top flight

Aside from United’s big victory over Wigan, the Christmas fixtures proved once again that you cannot take anything for granted in the Premier League.

Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal (evens – top 4 finish) all had what looked fairly straightforward home games but all managed to slip up as they were held 1-1 by Blackburn, Fulham and Wolves respectively.

It was the same old failing for Liverpool at home as they wasted plenty of chances against Rovers in their draw while Chelsea and Arsenal were both pegged back in their games after going in front early on. Despite pressure in both games late on from the home sides, both Fulham and Wolves held on to prove to the so-called big clubs that you have to work hard for every win in the top flight.

Leaders City, too, were expected to see off West Brom at the Hawthorns but were also held 0-0 to highlight the quality and strength in depth throughout what remains a very competitive league.

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Swiss look to roll over Czechs

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Stuart Pearce’s Young Lions crashed out of the European Under-21 Championship on Sunday evening but the show must go on in Denmark, and there are two semi-final encounters on Wednesday as the much-fancied Spanish face Belarus while a closer contest is anticipated with Switzerland up against the Czech Republic.

Switzerland v Czech Republic (8pm)

The Swiss (4/1 Outright) have stormed to the last four of the tournament this year after winning Group A with a 100% record, while they are also yet to concede a goal so far – only the second side to get this far without conceding after France in 2007.

Pierluigi Tami’s side have not only been strong defensively, but they have also improved at the opposite end of the field after starting with a 1-0 win against the hosts Denmark, before beating Iceland 2-0 and finishing in style with a 3-0 victory against fellow semi-finalists Belarus.

The likes of Xerdhan Shaqiri and Innocent Emeghara, who featured in a recent Euro 2012 qualifier against England at Wembley, have stood out in the Swiss ranks.

However FC Zurich defender Philippe Koch has highlighted the side’s excellent team spirit and quality from goalkeeper Yans Sommer right through to the forwards.

He said: “At the start of the tournament, no one would have counted on us qualifying with such style. We’re not surprised.

“We knew before the tournament that we had quality. So far, we’ve been able to show that quality in our matches.”

Granit Xhaka is suspended for the Swiss as they look to reach their first final at Under-21 level having lost to France on home soil at this stage in 2002, but they will take heart that they kept clean sheets in the group phase of the FIFA Under-17 World Cup in 2009 and the UEFA European Under-17 Championship in 2002 and went on to win both tournaments.

The Czech Republic will feel they have their name on the trophy this year (6/1 Outright) as they were on the verge of going out at the group stage on Sunday when trailing England 1-0 with just two minutes remaining.

But goals from substitutes Jan Chramosta and Tomas Pekhart sent them through in second place behind Spain and condemned England to an early flight home.

The omens are on the Czechs’ side too as the only other time the Swiss reached the semi-finals, in 2002, they went on to win the tournament at the expense of France on penalties, ironically in Switzerland.

The Czech Republic bounced back from an opening game defeat against Spain to see off Ukraine and England and will hope to continue their momentum in the Swiss encounter.

However, they have been practising penalties and could be preparing for a long night.

Looking at the form of the two sides going into the clash it is hard to see past the Swiss to edge into the final for the first time, although it could be a close affair.

Prediction: Swiss To Win 1-0 Correct Score @ 11/2

Spain v Belarus (6pm)

On paper this clash in Viborg looks a foregone conclusion as Group B winners Spain are odds-on 2/5 favourites for the tournament, while Belarus scraped through to the semi-finals behind Switzerland on just three points ahead of Iceland and hosts Denmark.

The Spanish did drop points against England, but defeated the Czech Republic and Ukraine in the group stages, while Belarus go into the match on Wednesday on the back of a 3-0 thumping against the Swiss.

Spain have Adrian Lopez leading the way for the Golden Boot on three goals, Juan Mata is one behind, while coach Luis Milla is poised to name another unchanged line-up as Cesar Azpilicueta is set to shake off a thigh injury suffered in training.

Belarus, who are the first team since Serbia and Montenegro in 2006 to progress to the semi-finals with three points, are boosted by the return of Sergei Politevich and Nikita Bukatkin after they served suspensions against Switzerland. But Sergei Matveychik will miss the semi-final after his dismissal in the final Group A game.

Belarus did hold Spain to a 1-1 draw in a friendly in March, but with a place in the final up for grabs on this occasion it would be a real shock if the Spanish do not win handsomely.

Prediction: Spain To Win 3-0 @ 5/1

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Promotion race boiling over

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With only two games remaining in the regular Championship campaign there are still plenty of matters to be resolved with regards to the battle for automatic promotion and scrap to seal a place in the end-of-season play-offs (npower Championship promotion 2010-11).

Only Neil Warnock’s QPR side seem to be assured of a place in the Premier League next season, although they were forced to put the champagne on ice after Norwich’s 96th minute winner against Derby on Easter Monday.

However, with a far superior goal difference and just one point required from their final two matches, the Hoops are finally set to seal their place at the top table of English football and can then focus on wrapping up the Championship title.

The battle to join them, as always, has turned out to be a nerve-jangling, goal-filled affair which has maintained the Championship as one of the most entertaining leagues in world football.

Norwich City

Paul Lambert’s Canaries (1/2 Promotion) are in the box-seat to join QPR in the Premier League automatically as they know wins in their final two games against sides which have nothing to play for  – Portsmouth at Fratton Park on Monday and at home to Coventry on May 7 – will see them clinch back-to-back promotions.

Norwich also appear to have hit form at the right time since a 3-0 defeat at Swansea on April 9 by going four matches unbeaten, including three successive wins in which they have scored 10 goals.

Cardiff City

Dave Jones’ Bluebirds (10/11 Promotion) are now the only side who can realistically take second place as fourth-placed South Wales rivals Swansea must win their final two matches and hope both Norwich and Cardiff lose.

They sit a point behind Norwich with two games remaining – against mid-table Middlesbrough at home on Monday and a tough trip to play-off chasing Burnley on the final day.

However, as far as momentum is concerned, Cardiff have the edge as they have not lost since a 1-0 reverse at Crystal Palace on March 8 with five wins and three draws in the bag since.

The fight to secure the final play-off place is also bubbling along nicely as Cardiff or Norwich, Swansea (13/5 Promotion) and Reading (9/4 Promotion) will be joined by Nottingham Forest, Leeds, Millwall or Burnley and even Hull in 10th spot have an outside chance.

Nottingham Forest

Billy Davies’ side (9/2 Promotion) looked certain for an automatic promotion spot at one stage, before embarking on a disastrous run which saw them slip out of the top-six.

However, they seem to have found some form at the right time to take back the final play-off spot with a two-point cushion thanks to three wins in their last four games, including successive 3-2 victories.

A City Ground date against a Scunthorpe side that is virtually relegated and a trip to a Crystal Palace side that is virtually safe from the drop should also boost Forest’s hopes.

Millwall

Kenny Jackett’s seventh-placed side (9/1 Promotion) are the dark horses in the race for a play-off place as they have ‘done a Blackpool’ by storming from nowhere to become real contenders thanks to six wins and only one defeat in their last nine league games.

They welcome Swansea to the intimidating Den before travelling to face a mid-table Barnsley side that could well have the deck chairs out on the final day.

Plus, if the Lions do roar into the play-offs, the fact they came up from League One by the same route last season will no doubt stand them in good stead.

Burnley

Eddie Howe has impressed since taking over the Clarets (9/1 Promotion) from Brian Laws earlier in the season as he has reversed their flagging fortunes to put them back into the play-off picture.

They sit in eighth spot, level on 67 points with Millwall, following a run of three wins and a draw from their previous four matches which ended a damaging run of four straight defeats.

However, they face a much tougher run-in with a trip to play-off chasing rivals Leeds before a visit of promotion-chasing Cardiff which will not help their cause.

Leeds United

Simon Grayson’s Whites (12/1 Promotion) looked certainties for the play-offs but they have pressed the self-destruct button in recent games. Just one win in eight games has left them in ninth spot and three points off Forest in sixth spot.

Therefore they need to win their final two matches – against Burnley one place above them at Elland Road and at champions-elect QPR on the final day – and hope their rivals slip-up.

It looks a tall order and it seems that Leeds will still be in the Championship next season.

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Nine sweat over survival hopes

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West Brom’s late draw at Stoke on Monday means the battle to avoid relegation from the Premier League this season remains as tight as ever with 10 games to go for most clubs. Some experts reckon up to nine teams are still in danger of going down and here we assess who looks best-placed to hold on to their top-flight status in the crucial couple of months that lie ahead.

With Everton currently in 11th, but with a game in hand on most teams, it looks like David Moyes’s side – on 33 points – have done just about enough to stay up but everyone from 12th (Aston Villa) down could yet get dragged in.

Villa’s (1/150 to stay up) form since Gerard Houllier took over has been frustratingly inconsistent but, with the likes of Stewart Downing, Gabby Agbonlahor, Ashley Young and Darren Bent in their squad, the midlanders surely have far too much quality to go down. A win at Bolton on Saturday will probably put an end to any lingering doubts over their Premier League future.

Equally, Fulham (1/40) look to have too much to be caught in a relegation scrap come early May and the deserved 1-1 draw at Man City on Sunday shows Mark Hughes’s side will pick up enough points between now and the end of the season to maintain their top-flight status for another year at least.

The Cottagers host Blackburn (1/9) on Saturday and, if Rovers slip up away from home again, then they will begin to look worryingly over their shoulders. They still have tough games to come against title-chasing duo Manchester United and Arsenal and third-placed Man City are yet to visit Ewood Park. Wins against fellow-strugglers Blackpool and Birmingham in the next month or so will be absolutely vital or a nervous finish to the season awaits.

Out of all the sides currently in the bottom six, Blackpool (8/15) would be most neutrals’ choice to stay up, such has been the way the Seasiders have entertained in their debut campaign in the Premier League. However, wins against the likes of Liverpool and Spurs mean nothing if your defence is constantly leaking goals and, sadly for Ian Holloway, that has been the case for the past month. We reckon Blackpool will just about stay up thanks largely to their form in the first half of the season but it would be no surprise if they have to wait until the last day to make sure of safety.

So that leaves us with just two from the final five at the bottom to pick from to avoid the drop – and this is where it becomes tricky.

West Ham’s (5/6) win over Liverpool on Sunday was a huge boost for Avram Grant’s side but they must reproduce that form over the next month if they are to get out of the mire in a season in which one encouraging performance has then often been followed by a dreadful one. However, there is certainly goals in Freddie Picquionne, Demba Ba and Victor Obinna while Scott Parker and the fit-again Thomas Hitzlsperger should win enough midfield battles in the coming weeks to secure some more vital wins.

Birmingham (4/7) have a couple of games in hand on their rivals due to their Carling Cup run but how they now react to Sunday’s memorable triumph will be key to whether the Blues stay up. Certainly if they approach the games they have left in the same manner they did at Wembley then surely survival is guaranteed.

The worry for Alex McLeish is that plenty of teams in the past have switched off when winning the League Cup thinking their season has been a success already but the wily Scot will not let that happen and we envisage a final-day draw at Spurs will keep them up.

So by our reckoning, that leaves West Brom (5/6), Wolves (4/7) and Wigan (12/5) as the teams who, come May, could be forced to face up to the prospect of second-tier football once again.

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Wenger unsure over Fabregas return

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Arsene Wenger says Cesc Fabregas is now fully fit again but the Gunners boss may not risk the Spanish ace against Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League on Tuesday (Arsenal 4/6, Shakhtar 4/1, the draw 14/5).

The Arsenal skipper has not played since he picked up a hamstring injury in the 1-1 draw at Sunderland last month but has been making good progress in training and could play if required this week.

However, Wenger is keen to protect Fabregas and has hinted he may decide against playing the midfielder against their opponents from Ukraine, with Sunday’s trip to title rivals Manchester City in mind (Arsenal 15/2, City 11/2 – Premier League Outright).

“Cesc is available. He is good and has prepared well. He had a little setback but got over the hurdle and is ready to play at full fitness,” said Wenger.

“I do not know yet whether I start him or not but he is available. It will be (determined by) whether I take a gamble or not, because he has been out for a long time.

“I have to make up my mind but physically he is ready, fit and wanting to play.”

Theo Walcott, meanwhile, picked up a minor knock in training but is expected to be fit to face Shakhtar but Laurent Koscielny, Thomas Vermaelen, Robin van Persie and Manuel Almunia are all definitely ruled out of the game.

Arsenal will be hoping to make it three wins out of three in their Champions League group matches on Tuesday following victories so far over Braga and Partizan (Arsenal 10/1 – Champions League Outright).

Wenger is expected to make at least two changes from the side that beat Birmingham 2-1 on Saturday but youngster Jack Wilshere is tipped to start despite his sending off late on at the weekend.

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Reds optimistic over duo’s return

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Bet on the Merseyside derbyLiverpool (17/10 to win the Merseyside derby) have received a double boost with the news that striker Fernando Torres and left-back Paul Konchesky could be fit for Sunday’s massive clash at Everton (6/4 to win, 11/5 the draw), although Dirk Kuyt could be out of action for some time.

Torres (5/1 to score the first goal at Goodison) suffered a groin strain during the shock defeat to Blackpool at Anfield last month, which ruled him out of Spain’s fixtures over the international break, but has responded well to treatment and could yet make the line-up on Sunday.

Liverpool’s head of sports science and sports medicine Peter Brukner told Liverpoolfc.tv: “Fernando is doing pretty well. He had a slight tear in one of his abductor muscles very early on in the game against Blackpool that prevented him going away with Spain in the internationals.

“He has had intense treatment over the last 10 days and responded very well to that treatment.

“He’s ready to resume training today and if we can build up his training and get through the next few days, then we are optimistic but not certain that he will be able to line up against Everton.

“He’ll join in the full training session on Thursday, then build up Friday and Saturday. If he gets through these sessions and he is able to stretch out fully and has no after effect from the sessions then he will be able to play.”

Defender Konchesky, who has missed the last two games for Liverpool with a hamstring injury suffered in the 2-2 draw against Sunderland at the end of last month, is also making excellent progress and could make his comeback against the Toffees.

“Paul is coming along well and will join in full training on Thursday for the first time,” he added.

“He’s done everything we have asked of him so far and he’s done a lot of running and a lot of strength work on his hamstring.

“Again, it’s a bit similar to Fernando that we are reasonably confident he will be available for Everton, but it just depends on how his body responds to training.”

However, there was some bad news on the fitness front with both Dirk Kuyt and Daniel Agger picking up injuries while on international duty.

The Liverpool midfielder was forced out of Holland’s Euro 2012 qualifier against Sweden after just 28 minutes and the initial prognosis is not good.

“Dirk wanted to play on but our doctor prevented that and told me to substitute him,” Netherlands coach Bert van Marwijk stated.

“He is now in a hospital but following the doctor’s first opinion it could be very serious and keep him sidelined for a long time.”

Defender Agger, who has been hindered by a groin problem of late, lasted only 39 minutes for Denmark on Tuesday night and will be assessed at Liverpool’s Melwood training ground.

It has been a nightmare start to the season for both Merseyside clubs, who have picked up just one win each from their opening seven games, with Liverpool (11/1 to be relegated) in the bottom three due to having an inferior goal difference to city rivals Everton (33/1 to go down).

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