Tag Archives: lead

Graham Hunter Exclusive: Moyes to be merrier with another win and Barcelona to stretch league lead with El Clasico win

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Atlético Madrid v Getafe, Saturday 3pm
Referee: Martínez Munuera

Earlier this season Getafe were a bit indigestible to the reigning Champions. Like trying to swallow six cream-cracker sandpaper sandwiches in a sauna.

Cosmin Contra’s team had Alexis sent off with 35 minutes to play but Atleti still only squeeked through 1-0.

For Getafe that may seem an eternity ago – it’s certainly a couple of managers ago. Coach Contra is in China, sold [!] to Guangzhou. Quique Sanchez Flores seemed a brilliant appointment but left, before the ink was dry on his contract, infuriated by broken promises, and now he’s being sued by the President.

Last week, losing 0-1 at home to Real Sociedad Getafe didn’t play like a ‘broken’ team. But it’s feasible that a fracture might occur here.

Getafe have had a man sent off in each of their last three Liga matches against Atleti, beginning last season, when Los Rojiblancos smashed them 7-0 in this fixture. Looks like bad blood.

Atleti street-fought their way through in Europe in midweek and while you might suspect that extra-time and penalties against Leverkusen would take their toll, physically, the mental boost of winning that shoot-out and delighting these rabid fans means that Atleti should be backed to come out all guns blazing and to get tucked right into Getafe.

Raul Garcia

Raul Garcia got two in this game last year and having missed a penalty in the shoot-out it’d be typical of him to get that monkey off his back quickly with a goal against Getafe.

Griezmann, as always, is worth a punt because his pace, confidence and form set him apart. But if Mario Mandzukic’s midweek knock keeps him out then Fernando Torres scoring in a Madrid derby is worth a look too.

Hunter’s Hint: Atletico -2 goals at 11/4

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Athletic Bilbao v Almería, Saturday 9pm
Referee Prieto Iglesias

The Lions finally had enough of being stared at in their cage and got on with doing a bit of savaging. Five straight wins in League and Cup, including the European champions, stingy in defence and in front of a roaring, proud crowd. All of that and the Copa final to come at the end of May.

So, playing lowly Almería who’ve not tasted victory in five it’s gotta be a straight KO, right?

San Mames stadium

But just the slightest engaging of memory muscles will remind you of Athletic losing to Elche, Cordoba and Granada this season.
All of them at San Mames. All of them ‘guaranteed’ wins.

Ernesto Valverde says:

“We need to change our mentality. “We’ve been playing well, last week Celta allowed us space to get in behind them but Almeria will dig in and we’ll need neat, technical, inside-forward skills around their area to get the win we want”.

Almería coach Juan Ignacio Martínez, known to friend and foe alike as JIM, agrees:

“I like my teams to be on the ball but I’ve consolidated my reputation as a coach by knowing how to defend deep, intensely and to play well on the break. “That’s my trademark”.

Tomer Hemed, fancied for long enough by Everton until a bad injury, is their most bankable scorer while Aduriz is having a simply unbelievable season. Miki San José, named in the Spain squad, loves a goal and while I don’t think this paints as an ideal game for him [he’ll get more on the break than he ever does as a penalty box finisher] Iñaki Williams does work his socks off for the team and one of these days he’ll look less ungainly in the box and score.

If this isn’t a firm home win then I’ll not be the only one who’s shocked. Athletic to score a couple and win. More Aduriz? Why not?

Hunter’s Hint: Aduriz to score and Bilbao to win at 8/5

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Villarreal v Sevilla, Sunday 4pm
Referee: Hernández Hernández

“Oh, it’s YOU again” – the surly, barely civil greeting between those who didn’t particularly like each other in the first place and have, definitely, seen too much of each other in recent days.

This will be the fourth meeting between them this season and the third in ten days. Thus far the clock has been Villarreal’s enemy in these contests.

For example, back in October they faced off in the League.

Vietto [definitely worth an any-time] put Villarreal ahead at the Sanchez Pizjuan with 11 remaining.

But then both Denis Suárez and Carlos Bacca [penalty] scored in the space of the last three minutes – the countdown to the final whistle cost Villarreal dearly.

elmadrigal

Then, last week, it took Vitolo 13 seconds to give Sevilla a lead which they converted into a huge Europa League away win at the Madrigal – 1-3 was the final score with Mbia and Gameiro adding the other two.
[Vietto scored again].

So the Yellow Submarine dozed off in the first fixture and hadn’t woken up in time for the second meeting.

By Thursday things were slightly less dramatic but Suárez still added the key goal with the match balanced at 1-1 with seven minutes left.
Villarreal must feel pretty humiliated by Unai Emery’s evidently sharper/fitter team.

You’d have thought that, perhaps, they’ll get after them with all guns blazing just for a little bit of revenge on Sunday afternoon – perhaps Eric Bailly’s red card on Thursday will be added to?

But Sevilla have three wins and a draw in the last seven visits to the Madrigal.

So it’s a feisty one in prospect. Hard to call. Sevilla have proven that they are more savvy, fitter and maybe just that touch hungrier. So they should go home again without defeat. 2-2. Perm from Vietto, Gerard, Bacca, Vitolo [named in the Spain squad] or Denis Suárez for the goals.

Hunter’s Hint: 2-2 at 11/1

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Real Sociedad v Córdoba, Sunday 6pm
Referee: Velasco Carballo

This is a good moment to be David Moyes.

Everton don’t look better off without him, Manchester United’s vast expenditure on players hasn’t greatly improved their paying public’s contentment with the Van Gaal playing style, yet at least, and now Real Sociedad are both bright and bubbly.

They’ve won three out of the last four and suddenly there’s not a queue to get into the infirmary or red-cross aid being handed out in San Sebastian.

David Moyes

This season every single player except two, Rubén Pardo and Esteban Granero, has missed at least one game through injury and this is the first week that La Real have had every player fit.

The big question is whether the Scot reckons that his star striker Carlos Vela has had enough time working with the squad, after two months out, to have game time here.

A start seems unlikely, particularly given how well La Real have coped without him.

Cordoba have lost their last eight, more fool them for sacking Chapi Ferrer in the first place.

Worse, they’ve only scored four times in those eight matches. The second division awaits. Chapi’s replacement, Miroslav Djukic, has also been sacked and the ‘Miracle Man’ José Antonio Romero, is in charge. Last season he took over the Cordoba ‘B’ team when they’d gone eight games without a win [7 defeats] and saved them from relegation.

His former midfielder Rafa Gálvez reckons: “This is a reward for years of hard work by Romero. “He’s such a hard worker. “Last year the B team was last but he saved them. “It’ll be intense under him but he’s qualified for the job of keeping Cordoba up”. Iago Bouzón, Fede Vico and Edimar are all out – Crespo’s a doubt. Not ideal. Xisco came off the bench in the first game between these sides this season [1-1] to equalize very late on but Nabil Ghilas is the [any time scorer] danger man.

La Real aren’t a scoring machine and thus a draw isn’t impossible but their confidence is high, they’ve been working hard under Moyes and should win.

Perm from Canales, Chory Castro and Iñigo for an any time scorer. 2-0/3-1

Hunter’s Hint: Real Sociedad -1 at 15/8

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FC Barcelona v Real Madrid, Sunday 8pm
Referee: Mateu Lahoz

Okay, hands up and no shouting the answer out – who remembers Carlo Ancelotti’s ideas last season before the Camp Nou Clasico?

Anyone? No? Right, time you lot did more homework.

Gareth Bale at centre forward to begin with, Sergio Ramos in midfield. Sami Khedira lumbering around alongside him.

No Benzema to start with. No Isco. No Iker. Sounds farcical, doesn’t it?

But Madrid still only lost 2-1 and were, by the time he got things right tactically, distinctly in the ascendancy as the final whistle approached.

Carlo Ancelotti

The Italian’s confusion wasn’t simply to do with it being his first match against Barça as Madrid coach – mainly to do with him not being sure of his own resources.

This Clasico weekend profiles differently. You’d bet that he’ll start with Casillas; Carvajal, Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo: Isco, Kroos, Modric: Bale, Benzema, Ronaldo.

No experiments, no mucking about. But the shape will probably be more often 4-4-2, and the style will certainly be more counter-attacking then has been the case for most of this season.

Ancelotti is asking Bale to work more defensively, to position himself more as a fourth midfielder than the third striker – and if the Welshman fulfils his brief he is, counter-intuitively, more likely to be a goal threat.

When he got his winner in the Copa Final last season he’d begun the move back in his own penalty box – but still left Marc Bartra gasping for air when sprinting across half the pitch, and what felt like twice around the stadium, to score. Let Bale get up pace and he’s more dangerous than he’s looked in recent months.

Barcelona are susceptible to pace and power when it’s deployed on clever counters against them – step forward Gareth-boyo.
Eight visits since losing here 5-0 in 2010 have all brought a Real Madrid goal or goals. They score at the Camp Nou and should do so again. Benzema has four in three v Barça.

Claudio Bravo

If you’d like another reason to believe in the visitors then let’s update Claudio Bravo’s stats against Madrid.

Since 2006 he’s faced them 11 times, losing ten and conceding 33 goals.

All that said, Barcelona start favourites and should probably carry your cash on them. They play quick, confident football, press well and rob the ball and now they break effectively.

At set plays they score more, defending set plays they concede fewer.

There’s competition for places, Messi’s on flying form and Rakitic is the under-appreciated hit of the season.

It’s hard to imagine that Busquets is ready to play but Mascherano in midfield works – just differently.

Both teams to score, three+ goals [the last ten years have seen 34 Clásicos averaging three and a half goals per game], Messi to add to his all-time leading scorer status in this fixture, Benzema to reply but the home side to extend their Liga lead. Easier said than done.

Hunter’s Hint: Both teams to score and Barcelona to win at 6/4

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Graham Hunter: ‘Simeone is special enough to lead Atletico past Chelsea’

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Recently I was talking to a Chelsea player about the quarter final second leg against Paris St Germain.

The Blues won 2-0, in extremis, to overturn the 3-1 first leg deficit. Laurent Blanc, as is often the case in big games, didn’t know whether to stick or twist. His team turned out a ‘nothing’ performance – neither defending staunchly enough nor posing meaningful threat and putting Chelsea on the back foot.

I offered up the idea that I’d admired Jose Mourinho’s idea of not replacing Samuel Etoo (Oscar went instead) when both Schürrle and Demba Ba were already on and he was introducing Fernando Torres.

Etoo played a small part in the goal which Ba scored and Mourinho, not exactly a guy known for commitment to all-out attack ended up with four strikers in play – just at the moment when risk was needed in order to win the premium of yet another place in the Champions League semi final.

I was put right. I was informed that every single eventuality had been planned for. If Chelsea were 1-0 up at half time such and such was to happen and the players knew it. If they were losing ‘x’ would happen, if they were 3-0 up and coasting ‘y’ would happen. If they were down to ten men then ‘z’ tactics would be employed and everyone would be clear on specifically what would be required of them, individually, in that instance.

Setting that information and that victory aside for a moment what Mourinho and most of his players can draw on, aside from the best up-to-date scouting and analysis, is vast data banks of experience.

For the Portuguese and the bulk of his players the stress, adrenalin, intensity, mood and so on, which are particular to being in the dream situation of needing a win or score draw in 90 minutes at home to reach the final of the greatest-ever football competition, are nothing new.

That’s not the case for Atlético.

Still, I think it’s easy to make a case for Los Colchoneros to go through this tie.

Simeone, his squad, the club execs, the media and the fans are all completely in sync.

They think the same, expect the same things, work/sing/plan with absolute intensity, they show the same levels of naked desire, they all make sacrifices and they are completely unified in the idea that it’s the end, not the means to the end, which matter.

Win pretty, win ugly. But win.

Recognise that theme anyone in SW6? I still think that Atlético are SO reminiscent of Chelsea around 2004/5/6

Full of talent, smart, athletic, brilliantly coached and also brimful of desire.

They’ve got a horse-shoe in their boxing gloves

Just as it was when the young ‘One’ really was ‘special’ it’s great to observe and report on.

Not necessarily aesthetically lovely, not always.

But compelling because we are into basic, eternal human instincts about competing, surviving, winning and evolving.

So, for those reasons, it’s easy to fancy Atlético. An away goal would be an immense boon. Two would put them through. Guaranteed.

They are on an immense unbeaten streak and everyone ‘believes’. The manager is a messianic figure and his word is law.

So many of these things which Mourinho once achieved automatically and Simeone is now proving he has in spades are absolutely NOT the norm in football.

Teams look harmonious, players tell us, tell the media, the manager, tell each other that they are ‘up for it’ that they are ‘ready’ that they ‘understand’ the tactics and the gameplan – but surprsingly often none of it will actually be true.

Men like Mourinho, Ferguson, Ancelotti, Guardiola partly get paid such exorbitant salaries because not only can they come up with the right game plans they can enforce them and get the key players to unify and to believe in what’s required of them. Not just to do it like automatons but to understand and believe.

That genuinely is quite unusual.

More, Simeone has a team which defends all over the pitch. Not only do they press quite well they are rigorously disciplined positionally, they work not in little individual units but in twos and threes. They work for each other.

Atleti also use the ball with cleverness and efficacy. Koke, Arda, Gabi, Sosa, Diego and Filipe Luis all deliver the ball very, very well indeed. Moreover there have been nine different goal-assist givers in the last 13 Atlético matches.

All for one and one for all, no?

But, in my opinion, here’s the rub. Having set them up as a proper ‘team’ it’d be fatuous to suggest that they utterly depend on one man.

The Gift Of No Gabi

However the importance of Gabi’s absence through suspension cannot, I reckon, be overplayed.

He’s Simeone on the pitch. Same brain, same rigour, same win at any cost, same respect from those around him, same ability to produce match winning goals or assists not in mediocre games but big, big moments.

His assist record in the last few weeks has been fabulous, always producing something when Atlético are just, slightly, beginning to look as though mental and physical freshness is at a premium.

He has able deputies in Mario Suarez and Tiago – but Gabi is a horrible loss.

Perhaps this is where Atlético’s greatest test comes. Gabi may not be an experienced Champions League semi final warrior but he might as well be.

He’d have led the troops around him, calmed them down when needed, speeded them up when required – he’d have led by example.

Back to experience. Back to accumulated knowledge. I’m sure the fact that Mourinho admires and wants Diego Costa for next season made Chelsea fans watch the ‘new’ Spain striker closely.

If they don’t watch La Liga regularly perhaps they were underwhelmed. Costa makes and takes chances of his own but he is also, heavily, the product of superb service from Arda, Koke, Gabi, Villa and Filipe.

Close Down Providers and Conquer

Last week Chelsea snuffed out the providers and so the finisher had scraps to feed off.

Ahead of this game Costa said, authoritatively, that Chelsea ‘would be forced to come out and play a bit more because they were at home this time’.

Perhaps. Was that the voice of experience or supposition?

How well briefed are all Simeone’s players about what to expect?

What do do in certain situations. How to react. When to push the pedal to the floor, when to… well, Kenny Rogers covered it best in ‘The Gambler’. Hold ‘em, fold ‘em, walk away .. run.

Are Atlético going to be as well briefed and prepared as Chelsea?

For these reasons I suspect it’ll need Atleti’s best performance of the season in order to go through. They’ve been remarkable these last few years, regular trophy winners and the Europa league has taught them, above all, how to peak in midweek and regularly produce wins, any old how, at the weekend.

Hence their heady Champions League/Liga positions.

But I reckon they’ll be tested to their very limits by an experienced, savvy, hungry and unified Mourinho side.

I think there’s a little bit of value in looking at Atleti set plays. They spend an inordinate amount of time practicing them. They are Spain’s most regular scorers from the dead ball and without Gabi, Koke remains an absolutely wonderful delivery boy when he’s crossing or passing off his right foot.

Raúl Garcia, Godín, Miranda, Costa are all well above average in the air and I’d expect Mark Schwarzer to be properly tested in his timing at coming for crosses.

At a guess I’d have thought that there’s no more than three goals in the match, much more likely two and that for all I’ve bemoaned the absence of Gabi Chelsea may need to score twice in order to meet Real Madrid in Lisbon next month.

Comedy value? The novelty bet? Simeone’s number two, Germán ‘Mono’ Burgos once threatened to re-arrange Mourinho’s features during a particularly heated Clásico.

Burgos is, without too much exaggeration, a character who makes Mourinho appear like Ghandi. If you can get decent odds on Burgos being sent off. Take them. All day long.

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 You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter on @BumperGraham

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Charlton out to extend lead

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Charlton Athletic are flying high at the top of the League One table and the race for promotion is hotting up with the frontrunners set to take on Chesterfield on Tuesday night (Chesterfield 3/1, draw 5/2, Charlton 10/11 Match Betting).

The side from The Valley are on course to make a swift return to the Championship as they hold a 10-point lead at the top of the table, with games running out for the chasing pack.

Charlton head into this game at the B2net Stadium on the back of a 2-0 victory over Stevenage Borough and once again Bradley Wight-Phillips got his name on the scoresheet.

Chesterfield boss John Sheridan will make his side fully aware of the threat the attacking player will pose as he hopes to add to his 15 goals for the season.

The visitors on Tuesday have not lost a game in their last nine outings and will be full of confidence when they make the trip to the Derbyshire outfit, who currently sit rock bottom of League One.

With the club five points away from emerging out of the relegation zone, The Spireites are fighting for their lives and will not want that gap to increase this week.

However Charlton (1/6 League One title outright) have made a habit of seeing off sides at this level and should come away from Chesterfield with all three points as they edge closer to the title.

One club who will be looking for Chesterfield to do it a favour is Sheffield United, who will be looking to get back to winning ways when Scunthorpe United travel to Bramall Lane on Tuesday (Sheffield Utd 1/2, draw 3/1, Scunthorpe 6/1 Match Betting).

The Blades will still be hurting following their 1-0 defeat to arch rivals Sheffield Wednesday in the Steel City derby last weekend.

Fortunately for manager Danny Wilson and his men, they have not had to wait long to put things right following the derby loss.

Having drawn a rare blank against the Owls, the Blades (5/1 League One title outright) will be determined to get back to scoring goals when they host the Irons, with the likes of Chad Evans and Richard Cresswell set to cause Scunthorpe problems.

Wilson and his men are hoping to keep in touch of Charlton and pull away from Wednesday in third place and, against an Irons side struggling for form in their last two outings, they should get back to winning ways to give their fans something to cheer about following the defeat at Hillsborough.

Another side pushing for an automatic promotion spot is Huddersfield Town and having secured a first victory under newly-appointed manager Simon Grayson, the Terriers are set for a trip to Broadhall Way to take on Stevenage Borough (Stevenage 13/10, draw 3/1, Huddersfield 2/1 Match Betting).

Tottenham Hotspur failed to secure a win at Stevenage in the FA Cup with their star-studded squad and the home side will prove a tough nut to crack for Town.

However Huddersfield have the not so secret weapon Jordan Rhodes in their armoury and if anyone can get past a stubborn defence it is the Scotland striker.

Boro will be no pushovers on home soil but Huddersfield will be boosted by a new manager at the club and should edge this one.

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Nolan to lead Hammers home

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After another topsy turvy weekend in the Championship, the teams are back in action on Monday and Sam Allardyce’s West Ham side will be looking to put their shaky recent performances behind them as they face a struggling Coventry (West Ham 4/9, draw 10/3, Coventry 6/1).

After an inconsistent start to the season, the Hammers looked as if they could dominate the division but have lost three of their last five games and, with a number of key players out injured, are starting to struggle.

This includes Saturday’s 2-1 defeat to Derby but boss Allardyce has been handed a major boost with Jack Collison, George McCartney, Julien Faubert and captain Kevin Nolan all returning from suspension.

Of this quartet the midfield combination of Nolan and Collison could be vital if the East London side are going to get back on track. Nolan is the true talisman of the team and has a habit of scoring important goals (Nolan 11/8 to score at anytime).

Collison on the other hand is arguably West Ham’s most creative influence and is sorely missed when absent. Many of the club’s supporters believe they could have stayed in the Premier League last season if he hadn’t got injured early in the campaign.

The pair are more than likely to go straight back into the side and look out for them to make a major impact at Upton Park.

Coventry have been the league’s strugglers this season and are certainly a club in trouble both on and off the pitch. They have spent most of the season propping up the table but have had a resurgence of late, winning their last two games against Brighton and Bristol City, and will be hoping to continue their fine run when they face their inconsistent opponents.

Their key man is certainly striker Lukas Jutkiewicz, who has been a rare shining light in their poor season. The 22-year-old was tipped for greatness when he moved to Everton as a teenager but never made his mark at Goodison and often found himself farmed out on loan.

However, he now appears to have found his feet and has scored a number of vital goals this season. His form has attracted the interest of a number of the division’s top sides and he has been tipped for a possible move in the recently-opened transfer window. Despite the speculation, he will be looking to make an impact in the match and look out for him to get on the scoresheet (Jutkiewicz 9/4 to score at anytime).

Despite Jutkiewicz’s fine form, its hard to look past the Hammers, especially at home. With their star names returning they will have added impetus going forward and will be looking to get their season back on track with a comfortable victory (West Ham 5/1 to win 2-0).

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Blues lead Championship treble

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The Championship returns after the international break and teams will continue to jostle for position  in an extremely tight league. Just 12 points seperate the last team in the play-off spots and the side third from bottom, with the unpredictable division offering the punter some big-price winners. Here’s our Saturday home treble selection…

Birmingham v Peterborough (3pm)

Blues have done remarkably well to find themselves in mid-table at this stage, bearing in mind their hectic fixture schedule and the loss of several key players. Chris Hughton continues to work wonders with limited resources and Birmingham sit just four points outside the play-offs, with three games in hand on most of their rivals.

An international break will have helped Blues and they look a decent bet to maintain their unbeaten home record, with four wins and two draws in their six league games at St Andrew’s.

The Posh have scored plenty of goals so far this term, but they are also conceding plenty – 29 goals makes them the leakiest defence in the Championship.

Suggested Bet: Birmingham to win @ 4/5

Middlesbrough v Blackpool (3pm)

Boro have shown they have to be considered as real promotion candidates this season and their fine start is down to a solid run of home displays. Tony Mowbray’s men are yet to lose at the Riverside in the league and have conceded just 10 goals in eight home matches.

Boro have responded well to a 3-0 drubbing at leaders Southampton at the end of last month and a win on Saturday will make it three victories on the bounce, and could see them move into the top two.

Blackpool are dangerous opponents but their away form will be a concern to Ian Holloway. Apart from their freak 5-0 success at Leeds, their only other away win came in the opening game at Hull.

Suggested Bet: Draw HT/Boro FT @ 7/2

Reading v Cardiff (3pm)

Many will be surprised to see the Royals in the bottom half of the table at this stage of the campaign, but they do look like a team on the up. Having lost out in the play-off final last term, Brian McDermott’s men have suffered an early-season hangover, as well as losing some key players.

Reading have picked up in recent weeks and have lost just one of their last 10 games, and that was a narrow defeat at Nottingham Forest. The Royals have shored up at the back, conceding just once in their last three games, and in striker Adam Le Fondre have found a real bargain.

Cardiff themselves are on a good run – five games unbeaten – and are up into the top four in the table. But the Bluebirds have won just two away from home and could be facing Reading at the wrong time.

Suggested Bet: Le Fondre to score at anytime @ 3/2

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Ronaldo to lead Portugal to Euro finals

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The second legs of the Euro 2012 play-offs take place on Tuesday as the final four sides book their places at the finals in Poland and Ukraine next summer. Portugal host Bosnia in one of most finely-poised ties but the home side should be backed to make it through

After a disappointing goalless encounter between these two sides on Friday evening, Portugal have home advantage going into the second leg and will be able to see off a resolute Bosnian side at the Estadio Nacional in which they can be backed at 4/9.

In the first leg, Portugal looked like the home side as they pushed players forward in an adventurous nature against the hosts, who looked content with taking a 0-0 scoreline from the game into the return leg in Lisbon.

Portugal would be one of the top seeds if they qualified for next summer’s finals and can rely on one of the world’s best player in Cristiano Ronaldo.

The Portuguese skipper went close to breaking the deadlock a couple of times in the opening leg, with Bosnian keeper Asmir Begovic  denying the Real Madrid forward from giving his side a lead going into the return fixture.

Ronaldo has been in scintillating form this season for his club side, scoring 17 goals in as many games for the Spanish giants.

Bosnia are likely to defend deep in Lisbon and it could be a free-kick that breaks the deadlock between the two sides. Therefore Ronaldo is a good bet to score the first goal in the game at 5/2. Don’t forget he also takes penalties for his country and plays in an advanced position when on national duty.

Although Ronaldo is the star in the Portugal side, they also have the likes of Nani, Raul Meireles and Helder Postiga, who have all been in good form for their respective clubs.

Portugal are a tough side to beat on home soil and they did beat the same opponents 1-0 in Lisbon in the second leg of their 2010 World Cup qualification play-off last year.

World champions Spain were beaten 4-0 in Lisbon last year by Paulo Bento’s side and have won six out of their last seven fixtures at home.

Bosnia are likely to adopt similar tactics to that in the first leg therefore the timing of the opening goal will be crucial. If Portugal can score an early goal in the game they will be able to open their opponents up and a scoreline of 3-0 to the home side looks a solid bet at 9/1.

However, if the score remains the same at half-time, Portugal will have to be more patient but they should get the opportunity to add misery on Bosnia once again.

The visitors have been hit with injuries to three of their first-choice defenders with Boris Pandza and Sasa Papac both out of the game through suspension.

Coach Safet Susic will be relying on some of his fringe players to step into the side for the trip, but it is very unlikely that they will be able to match the talent in the Portugal side so they are set to face elimination once again.

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Palermo lead Euro treble

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There are three top-flight European games taking place on Thursday, with the focus on Italy and Spain and the teams chasing Europe. Those punters who suffered loses on Tuesday and Wednesday may look to salvage some success with a Thursday treble.

Palermo v Lecce (7:45pm)

The home side are currently ninth in Serie A after a solid start to the season, but they are looking to bounce back from two consecutive defeats. Those losses though came away at Roma and AC Milan and a return to home comforts should see the Rosanero get back to winning ways.

Devis Mangia’s men have won both of their league matches at the Stadio Renzo Barbera, scoring five and conceeding just two in the process. Thursday’s opponents will head to Palermo with just one point from their opening five games and low in confidence.

The Giallorossi were leading 3-0 at half-time in their previous game at home to Milan, but crashed to a 4-3 defeat. Prior to that game, Lecce had scored just one goal in their opening four matches.

Suggested Bet – Palermo to win @ 8/15

Espanyol v Real Betis (7pm)

The teams currently seventh and eighth in La Liga meet at Estadi Cornella-El Prat, with nothing to seperate the two sides.

Espanyol are one place below their opponents but only by one goal and are going into Thursday’s game off the back of two impressive wins.

The Barcelona-based outfit picked up 1-0 away wins at Rayo Vallecano and Racing Santander and look to be on the up.

Betis, in contrast, have lost their last four games and have scored just one goal and conceeded eight in that spell.

Suggested Bet – Espanyol to win 2-0 @ 9/1

Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (9pm)

These two teams look pretty evenly matched, with Bilbao struggling at home and Atletico poor away from Madrid. One point seperates 11th-placed Bilbao and ninth-placed Atletico and it could remain that way after Thursday’s meeting.

Bilbao have won just one of their four home matches, a 3-1 success over Osasuna, but are unbeaten in their last four games.

Meanwhile, Atletico, expected to challenge for a place in Europe, have yet to lose at home this term but have collected just one point from three away matches.

Suggest Bet – Draw @ 23/10

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Fringe men to lead response

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The Carling Cup last-16 games get underway with four matches taking place on Tuesday evening with the pick being League Two Aldershot attempting to heap more misery on Manchester United just two days after their 6-1 Old Trafford thumping against Manchester City.

A rejuvenated Arsenal face Premier League strugglers Bolton at the Emirates Stadium, while there are two all Championship encounters as Cardiff host Burnley and Crystal Palace face Southampton at Selhurst Park.

However, we will start Tuesday’s preview at the EBB Stadium – also known as the Recreation Ground.

ALDERSHOT v MAN UNITED (7.45pm)

Sir Alex Ferguson will take his shell-shocked side down to face Dean Holdsworth’s League Two outfit looking for an immediate response to Sunday’s derby massacre.

However, the chances are that not many of the players who were battered by City will be on the pitch as the Red Devils (7/2 Favourites Outright) look to progress to the quarter-finals of the Carling Cup.

United eased to a 3-0 win at Leeds in the previous round and Fergie is likely to resort to using his fringe players and youngsters in front of the Sky TV cameras.

Ben Amos could get the nod in goal, while Fabio, Zeki Fryers, Michael Carrick, Antonio Valencia, Ryan Giggs, Ji-Sung Park, Michael Owen and Dimitar Berbatov could all feature having missed the City debacle.

Paul Pogba is in line for a start, Federico Macheda and Mame Biram Diouf will hope to be involved while youngsters Michael Keane, Reece Brown and Tom Thorpe should be in the squad too.

Holdsworth faces a selection dilemma as the Shots ended a four-match losing streak in the league with a 5-2 win at Dagenham and Redbridge on Saturday.

That side saw five changes made to the usual starting XI as Anthony Pulis, Bradley Bubb, Jermaine McGlashan, Aaron Brown and Adam Smith came in and they will all feel they deserve a crack at facing United.

It should be a moral boosting win for United, but it might not be a stroll in the park if the Shots can find their ‘A’ game in front of a small, but vociferous support at their 7,300-capacity home.

Prediction: Man United Away 90 Minutes @ 1/4
Value Bet: Man United 3-1 Correct Score @ 10/1

ARSENAL V BOLTON (7.45pm)

The only all-Premier League encounter on Tuesday will see changes made by both managers as the bread and butter of league football remains a priority in both camps.

Gunners’ boss Arsene Wenger has witnessed an up-turn in fortunes from his side following a poor start to the campaign and they moved up to seventh in the table thanks to Sunday’s 3-1 win against Stoke.

They go into the game with a psychological edge over the Trotters having defeated them 3-0 at the Emirates last month.

Wenger is set to bring Sebastien Squillaci into the Gunners’ starting XI, while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Yossi Benayoun should feature having both been on target in the third round victory against Shrewsbury, although Robin van Persie will be rested following his two-goal heroics on Sunday.

Bolton boss Owen Coyle, whose side won at Aston Villa in the last round, will ring the changes as the likes of Adam Bogdan, Zat Knight, Gretar Steinsson, Fabrice Muamba, Mark Davies, Ricardo Gardner, Gael Kakuta, Ivan Klasnic and Tuncay Sanli are set to come into the team, while youngster Joe Riley will feature in the squad.

The Trotters have lost seven of their nine league games this season so will look to get a confidence boost with a win in north London, but they will have their work cut out.

Prediction: Arsenal Home 90 Minutes @ 8/15
Value Bet: Oxlade-Chamberlain First Goalscorer @ 13/2

Elsewhere, Championship leaders Southampton travel to face high-flying Crystal Palace with changes planned by both managers given the hectic run of league matches the sides are embroiled in.

Saints chief Nigel Adkins will shuffle his pack given that they have a top-of-the-table clash against Middlesbrough coming on Saturday, while Eagles chief Dougie Freedman has used his squad to the full in previous rounds.

With Palace strong on home turf and the Saints on a great run it is difficult to pick a winner and this tie could go the distance (Draw 90 Minutes @ 12/5).

Meanwhile, at the Cardiff City Stadium the hosts will face Burnley looking for a place in the last eight.

The Bluebirds won 5-3 against Barnsley on Saturday, while Eddie Howe’s Clarets ended a poor run of form with a 2-1 win at struggling Coventry so both teams will be in a positive frame of mind.

However, with home advantage, expect the Welshmen to come out on top in this one (4/5 Cardiff Home 90 Minutes).

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Brown to lead Preston to top end

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The start of the League One campaign is on the horizon and it promises to be a tight affair, with several big clubs battling to get back into the second tier of English football. Preston, Sheffield United and Scunthorpe will join the likes of Sheffield Wednesday, Huddersfield and Charlton in trying to find a place in the Championship. Here’s who we think will enjoy success this term…..

Phil Brown failed to pull off the great escape and keep Preston (7/1 League One Outright) in the Championship last season, but there were shoots of recovery and that is likely to continue this campaign. They may have lost winger Keith Tracey, but the experience of the returning Graham Alexander, Clarke Carlisle and Ian Ashbee could be key. Expect North End to be up and around the top six for the majority of the season.

Huddersfield (11/8 to win promotion) have seen some of the squad that reached the play-off final last season move on, with the likes of Anthony Pilkington and Lee Peltier departing. But Lee Clark has some excellent youngsters breaking through and the loan addition of Hull defender Liam Cooper will keep them solid at the back.

No team in the league has been busier in the transfer window than Charlton (18/1 League One Handicap +4), with at least 12 additions to the ranks and as many departures. Former Bournemouth man Danny Hollands looks a decent capture although the large number of squad changes means Chris Powell will need time to gel things together.

There was shock throughout the football pundits at Sheffield United’s relegation last term, but despite their slip into the third tier, Blades fans have reason to be optimistic. Their youngsters reached the FA Youth Cup final for the first time in their history last season, with some real talent coming through the ranks at Bramall Lane. Young striker Danny Philliskirk, signed from Chelsea, is one to watch out for this season (Season Match Bet – Preston 4/5, Sheff Utd Evs).

Wednesday, meanwhile, have not been able to bring in as many players as they would have hoped. David Prutton and Julian Bennett will add more steel to the Owls, but there will be major pressure on Gary Megson to deliver the goods, with promotion their only target.

Three decent summer captures, Niall McGinn from Celtic, Clayton Donaldson (20/1 League One Top Goalscorer) from Crewe and Jonathon Douglas from Swindon, have strengthened a Brentford squad that finished 11th last season. Uwe Rosler is looking forward to his first season as a manager in England and the German will feel the play-offs are a realistic target.

An outside bet for a decent season are Notts County (10/1 to win promotion), under the solid stewardship of Martin Allen. They managed to survive in League One after Allen’s late season appointment and the former Barnet and Brentford boss will have set his sights on big improvements this term.

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Can Psycho lead U21s to glory?

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England’s youngsters travel to Denmark this week for the European Under-21 Championships (England 9/4 second favourites tournament outright) but before they have even left manager Stuart Pearce has found himself in the middle of a row over the selection of key players, most notably Arsenal star Jack Wilshere.

The 19-year-old was a regular in the Arsenal team last season, making 49 appearances and picking up the PFA Young Player of the Year award. He also became a regular fixture in the full England side following a successful first start against Denmark in February.

He would have been a great asset for Pearce’s side, adding creativity and guile to the centre of midfield as well as vital experience following his exploits in the Champions League for Arsenal and with Fabio Capello’s senior squad.

Wilshere had previously stated his desire to compete in the tournament and was named in Pearce’s initial 40-man squad, much to his club’s dismay.

The Gunners have been against Wilshere’s inclusion all along and went as far as sending England a medical report showing his increasing fatigue throughout the season and the risk of serious injury and burn-out should he play on into the summer.

Pearce eventually relented and left the midfielder out his squad along with another full international Liverpool striker Andy Carroll. Man City defender Micah Richards, who had been expected to captain the side, then had to pull out with a hamstring injury to be replaced by West Ham defender James Tomkins.

The side play Norway at St Mary’s on Sunday in a final friendly before they jet-off to Scandinavia and will be bidding to improve on a run of three defeats in their last four games – including a shock loss to Iceland last time out.

They are firm 2/5 favourites to beat a Norway side who failed to qualify for the Championships, finishing fourth in their qualifying group. The visitors are 6/1 to record a shock win with the draw 3/1, England are 15/2 to record a convincing 3-0 victory.

England’s first match of the tournament will be against 9/4 tournament favourites Spain on June 12 before facing Ukraine on the 15th and 6/1 third favourites Czech Republic four days later on the 19th in what looks like a tricky Group B.

Hosts Denmark (7/1 outright winners) Switzerland (7/1), Iceland (15/2) and 16/1 tournament outsiders Belarus make up Group A.

Pearce will be hoping his charges can erase painful memories from the last two European Championships. Back in 2007 they reached the semi-finals, drawing 1-1 with hosts Netherlands after 120 minutes and eventually crashing out 13-12 after an epic but ultimately heartbreaking penalty shoot-out.

Two years later they went one better, reaching their first Under-21 final since 1984. But the tournament would once again end in agony as they were crushed 4-0 by the Germany side that included many of the players who starred at last summer’s World Cup.

With both Germany and the Netherlands absent from this tournament Pearce will be hoping this is the time his young side end 27 years of hurt and lift the trophy for a third time in their history.

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