Graham Hunter: David Villa is a man from La Roja’s past – he may need to also be their man of destiny

Between the media and La Roja’s world champion players there has been much invoking of ‘four years ago’ over the last four days.

Back in South Africa, of course, Spain became the first team in history to win this trophy having lost the opening game.

En route to escaping the group the coincidence is that La Roja also needed to beat Chile back then, and did so.

David Villa (R) celebrates scoring first goal with Xabi Alonso (L) and Xavi 25/6/2010 00439885

COMETH THE HOUR: David Villa wheels away after scoring against Chile in 2010

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Thus it’s only natural, journalistically at least, for some to reach for comparisons and draw positive conclusions.

But there’s a snag.

  • Four years ago Spain lost 1-0 to Switzerland having totally dominated the game, shot at goal 24 times, put eight efforts on target, won 12 corners and suffered defeat only because it was one of those days when, as they say in La Liga, ‘the ball didn’t want to go in’.

Last Friday they were thrashed.

Four years ago Vicente Del Bosque’s men had Honduras, frankly a soft touch, as their second group rivals, and Chile third.

Chile also decided to abandon competitive football for the last 15 minutes of that game in Pretoria because they were sure that their progression was safe given the scoreline between Switzerland and Honduras and, at all costs, they didn’t want to surrender more goals to Spain. Del Bosque later called it the most placid 15 minutes of his tournament.

But let me remind anyone who’s forgotten the other parts of that game were anything but. Chile pressed and harassed like attack-dogs for the first chunk of the match, making their opponents feel like Marcelo Bielsa had somehow deployed 15 men on the pitch.

I fear it will be similar at the Maracana.

So, back to invoking the spirit of South Africa. I think it’s natural, but flawed.

Jean Beausejour (L) and Xabi Alonso in action 25/6/2010 00439884

SEEING RED: I’d expect this to be an aggressive game, in tackling and attacking

  • Betting: Slide into the latest Spain v Chile odds >

There are very few similarities and, already, del Bosque needs to be looking for men who are not stuck in the past – men of destiny.

The last two results in Brazil, defeated 3-0 by Brazil in the Confeds Cup a year ago and humiliated 5-1 in Salvador last week, have left La Roja looking like victims.

The air of invincibility has been stripped and, suddenly, those who cowered back will be queuing up to show that they are now the ‘fastest gun’.

It was ever thus. However ‘great’ you are/were, once the young bucks are after you the past counts for nothing.

As far as the world and European champions’ prospects go, Chile have one central tenet which is both welcome and threatening: they like to attack.

Spain have for the longest time been sick of teams who ‘park the bus’.

Those who attack La Roja reap benefits

The paradox is that the last two sides who have really ‘got after’ La Roja – Brazil and Holland – have reaped major benefits.

Xabi Alonso, Pedro, Juan Mata – each of them over the last 24 hours has spoken about the fact that Chile are a brave, daring and attacking side.

The word ‘aggressive’ has been used repeatedly too – all of which leads you to suppose that this might be yet another toe-to-toe match in this slugfest of a World Cup.

Good value for the fans.

They mean ‘aggressive’ in both senses of the word. In football terms every ball is a prisoner, energy is spent trying to overrun opponents and the team likes to buzz towards the opponent’s goal.

But they play by street rules.

Eduardo Vargas celebrates with Arturo Vidal after scoring 5/6/2014 00817155

DANGER MEN: Chile’s Eduardo Vargas celebrates with Arturo Vidal

In the last three games against Spain, Chile have seen three red cards, two of which came in a relatively unimportant friendly which really boiled over.

Perhaps that was because having never beaten La Roja and having been 2-0 up in St Gallen, Switzerland, Chile were horrified at being hauled back and overtaken 3-2 in Autumn 2011.

It was one of those games which proved to Vicente del Bosque that the effects of the ‘Clásico war’ were dying down and the feeling of ‘all for one’ had been re-established between his players. They went on to prove him right by winning Euro 2012.

There was a moment in that game when Iniesta was being bullied at the edge of the pitch by Arturo Vidal. Instantly two pretty entrenched rivals, Alvaro Arbeloa and Sergio Busquets, joined forces to rush across and ‘dive in’ on Iniesta’s behalf.

Danger men

There may be traces of that on Wednesday night. Players to watch for would include Iniesta who’s scored twice against Chile in the last three meetings and Eduardo Vargas. Vargas scored twice to rescue Chile in a pre-tournament friendly against Egypt which they threatened to lose and has also scored three times against Spain in the last three meetings.

By the day, training has gone from ghostly silent to boisterous and intense. The impact of the defeat against Holland was there, plain to see, but it has dissipated.

The words from del Bosque’s men have been bellicose. They want their pride restored, they want to get out of this group and, frankly, they think they will beat Chile.

I suspect they will. But this is one of those matches when if things go wrong, if nerves (of which there will be plenty) gnaw away at precision and confidence then the playing field will be pretty even.

David Villa

  • Betting: David Villa 9/5 to score anytime against Chile >

If David Villa doesn’t start then I’ll be confused. In training he’s looked sharper and sharper, he’s been scoring goals and right now he looks to be not only Spain’s all-time leading scorer but their most in-form striker.

This is a tournament for athletes. The weather, the tiredness of long flights – these are elements which give a premium to those who are strong, fast and quick to recover. As such there has to be a place, soon, for Javi Martínez in Spain’s attempts to retain their trophy.

This is a battle for survival. Expect the niceties to be abandoned. David Villa is a man from La Roja’s past – he may need to also be their man of destiny.

Graham Hunter is the author of ‘Spain: The Inside Story of La Roja’s Historic Treble’ and ‘Barca’. You can follow him on Twitter here

 

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Graham Hunter: ‘Simeone is special enough to lead Atletico past Chelsea’

Recently I was talking to a Chelsea player about the quarter final second leg against Paris St Germain.

The Blues won 2-0, in extremis, to overturn the 3-1 first leg deficit. Laurent Blanc, as is often the case in big games, didn’t know whether to stick or twist. His team turned out a ‘nothing’ performance – neither defending staunchly enough nor posing meaningful threat and putting Chelsea on the back foot.

I offered up the idea that I’d admired Jose Mourinho’s idea of not replacing Samuel Etoo (Oscar went instead) when both Schürrle and Demba Ba were already on and he was introducing Fernando Torres.

Etoo played a small part in the goal which Ba scored and Mourinho, not exactly a guy known for commitment to all-out attack ended up with four strikers in play – just at the moment when risk was needed in order to win the premium of yet another place in the Champions League semi final.

I was put right. I was informed that every single eventuality had been planned for. If Chelsea were 1-0 up at half time such and such was to happen and the players knew it. If they were losing ‘x’ would happen, if they were 3-0 up and coasting ‘y’ would happen. If they were down to ten men then ‘z’ tactics would be employed and everyone would be clear on specifically what would be required of them, individually, in that instance.

Setting that information and that victory aside for a moment what Mourinho and most of his players can draw on, aside from the best up-to-date scouting and analysis, is vast data banks of experience.

For the Portuguese and the bulk of his players the stress, adrenalin, intensity, mood and so on, which are particular to being in the dream situation of needing a win or score draw in 90 minutes at home to reach the final of the greatest-ever football competition, are nothing new.

That’s not the case for Atlético.

Still, I think it’s easy to make a case for Los Colchoneros to go through this tie.

Simeone, his squad, the club execs, the media and the fans are all completely in sync.

They think the same, expect the same things, work/sing/plan with absolute intensity, they show the same levels of naked desire, they all make sacrifices and they are completely unified in the idea that it’s the end, not the means to the end, which matter.

Win pretty, win ugly. But win.

Recognise that theme anyone in SW6? I still think that Atlético are SO reminiscent of Chelsea around 2004/5/6

Full of talent, smart, athletic, brilliantly coached and also brimful of desire.

They’ve got a horse-shoe in their boxing gloves

Just as it was when the young ‘One’ really was ‘special’ it’s great to observe and report on.

Not necessarily aesthetically lovely, not always.

But compelling because we are into basic, eternal human instincts about competing, surviving, winning and evolving.

So, for those reasons, it’s easy to fancy Atlético. An away goal would be an immense boon. Two would put them through. Guaranteed.

They are on an immense unbeaten streak and everyone ‘believes’. The manager is a messianic figure and his word is law.

So many of these things which Mourinho once achieved automatically and Simeone is now proving he has in spades are absolutely NOT the norm in football.

Teams look harmonious, players tell us, tell the media, the manager, tell each other that they are ‘up for it’ that they are ‘ready’ that they ‘understand’ the tactics and the gameplan – but surprsingly often none of it will actually be true.

Men like Mourinho, Ferguson, Ancelotti, Guardiola partly get paid such exorbitant salaries because not only can they come up with the right game plans they can enforce them and get the key players to unify and to believe in what’s required of them. Not just to do it like automatons but to understand and believe.

That genuinely is quite unusual.

More, Simeone has a team which defends all over the pitch. Not only do they press quite well they are rigorously disciplined positionally, they work not in little individual units but in twos and threes. They work for each other.

Atleti also use the ball with cleverness and efficacy. Koke, Arda, Gabi, Sosa, Diego and Filipe Luis all deliver the ball very, very well indeed. Moreover there have been nine different goal-assist givers in the last 13 Atlético matches.

All for one and one for all, no?

But, in my opinion, here’s the rub. Having set them up as a proper ‘team’ it’d be fatuous to suggest that they utterly depend on one man.

The Gift Of No Gabi

However the importance of Gabi’s absence through suspension cannot, I reckon, be overplayed.

He’s Simeone on the pitch. Same brain, same rigour, same win at any cost, same respect from those around him, same ability to produce match winning goals or assists not in mediocre games but big, big moments.

His assist record in the last few weeks has been fabulous, always producing something when Atlético are just, slightly, beginning to look as though mental and physical freshness is at a premium.

He has able deputies in Mario Suarez and Tiago – but Gabi is a horrible loss.

Perhaps this is where Atlético’s greatest test comes. Gabi may not be an experienced Champions League semi final warrior but he might as well be.

He’d have led the troops around him, calmed them down when needed, speeded them up when required – he’d have led by example.

Back to experience. Back to accumulated knowledge. I’m sure the fact that Mourinho admires and wants Diego Costa for next season made Chelsea fans watch the ‘new’ Spain striker closely.

If they don’t watch La Liga regularly perhaps they were underwhelmed. Costa makes and takes chances of his own but he is also, heavily, the product of superb service from Arda, Koke, Gabi, Villa and Filipe.

Close Down Providers and Conquer

Last week Chelsea snuffed out the providers and so the finisher had scraps to feed off.

Ahead of this game Costa said, authoritatively, that Chelsea ‘would be forced to come out and play a bit more because they were at home this time’.

Perhaps. Was that the voice of experience or supposition?

How well briefed are all Simeone’s players about what to expect?

What do do in certain situations. How to react. When to push the pedal to the floor, when to… well, Kenny Rogers covered it best in ‘The Gambler’. Hold ‘em, fold ‘em, walk away .. run.

Are Atlético going to be as well briefed and prepared as Chelsea?

For these reasons I suspect it’ll need Atleti’s best performance of the season in order to go through. They’ve been remarkable these last few years, regular trophy winners and the Europa league has taught them, above all, how to peak in midweek and regularly produce wins, any old how, at the weekend.

Hence their heady Champions League/Liga positions.

But I reckon they’ll be tested to their very limits by an experienced, savvy, hungry and unified Mourinho side.

I think there’s a little bit of value in looking at Atleti set plays. They spend an inordinate amount of time practicing them. They are Spain’s most regular scorers from the dead ball and without Gabi, Koke remains an absolutely wonderful delivery boy when he’s crossing or passing off his right foot.

Raúl Garcia, Godín, Miranda, Costa are all well above average in the air and I’d expect Mark Schwarzer to be properly tested in his timing at coming for crosses.

At a guess I’d have thought that there’s no more than three goals in the match, much more likely two and that for all I’ve bemoaned the absence of Gabi Chelsea may need to score twice in order to meet Real Madrid in Lisbon next month.

Comedy value? The novelty bet? Simeone’s number two, Germán ‘Mono’ Burgos once threatened to re-arrange Mourinho’s features during a particularly heated Clásico.

Burgos is, without too much exaggeration, a character who makes Mourinho appear like Ghandi. If you can get decent odds on Burgos being sent off. Take them. All day long.

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 You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter on @BumperGraham

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Terriers can edge past Posh

Sunday’s League One play-off final sees two of the brightest young English managers go head-to-head at Old Trafford but who will come out on top between Lee Clark and Darren Ferguson as Huddersfield take on Peterborough for a place in the Championship next season?

Reading the respective managers’ pre-match quotes, it is clear both are fully focused and determined not to fall at the final hurdle but, ultimately, it will be disappointment for one or the other come Sunday evening although everything points to a tight affair in Manchester.

The final sees the sides who finished third and fourth in the table take each other on and Huddersfield are viewed as slight favourites (7/5) – unsurprisingly as they finished ahead of Peterborough (15/8) by eight points and the Terriers are likely to have the more fans at Old Trafford – something which may just give them the edge in what could be a cagey affair such are the nerves of the occasion.

This is their fourth meeting this season and, again, a quick check of the stats shows they are two evenly-matched sides.

Peterborough won their home league clash 4-2, they drew 1-1 in West Yorkshire but Huddersfield won 3-2 in the second round of the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy at the Galpharm.

Clark has said if his side win the achievement will beat anything he managed as a player – and that includes winning the Championship three times – so the 38-year-old is well aware just how big a game the final is for a side who have been out of the second tier of English football for 10 years.

They are a club with a proud history, however, winning the old First Division on three successive occasions – the first club to do so – in 1926, but, of course that counts for nothing on Sunday.

They look good value at 8/1 to win 2-1 in the correct score market and, with Jordan Rhodes and the on-loan Danny Ward set to lead the line, they will pose plenty of threat to the Posh defence.

Ferguson’s side are looking for an immediate return to the Championship after being relegated 12 months ago and will be very well organised and difficult to beat.

In Craig Makail-Smith they have a forward to worry any defence. He has been heavily linked with a move away over the summer and, if he does leave, will hope to finish on a high with a win. The striker will reach a 100 goals if he hits a brace on Sunday and is well worth a punt in totesport’s enhanced first goalscorer market (6/1).

So the stage is set for what looks like being a closely-fought contest but we see Huddersfield just edging it given their slightly better performance over the season although don’t rule out them needing extra time to do it (9/1).

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Eagles can soar past Canaries

dougie freedmanDespite much of the focus being on the FA Cup this weekend, there are some crucial games taking place in the Championship with fixtures affecting both the top and bottom of the table. Crystal Palace could be the big winners, as they look to move out of the bottom three…

Crystal Palace v Norwich (Sat 3pm)

The Eagles may be struggling to maintain their Championship status, but they have shown signs of improvement under Dougie Freedman and the return of James Vaughan will be crucial. The Everton striker has return to Selhurst Park on loan, and having scored five goals in his previous stint this season, could prove the difference between survival and relegation.

Although their away record is poor, Palace have not lost at home since October – a run of six games – and they will be desperate to derail Norwich’s promotion hopes. The Canaries have surprised many this season, with late goals crucial for them in recent games. But Palace beat them 2-1 at Carrow Road earlier in the season and could be a good bet to do the double.

Match Bet: Palace to win @ 9/5

Hull City v QPR (Sat 3pm)

QPR still look the strongest team in the league, helped by a couple of useful additions during the transfer window ? Wayne Routledge and Danny Shittu. The R’s will be further tested though by a Hull City side, who has lost just one of their last 12 league games.

The Tigers have the second best defensive home record in Championship – conceding just six goals all season – and the goal-scoring threat of Matty Fryatt makes them serious play-off contenders. QPR have lost just twice away from Loftus Road and this looks like being a stalemate, which would be a decent result for both teams.

Match Bet: Draw @ 23/10

Millwall v Barnsley (Fri 7:45pm)

With just three places and two points separating the two teams, this clash at the New Den is a tough one to call. The Tykes have responded really well to losing their star man Adam Hammill to wolves ? picking up four points from a possible six since the winger’s departure, and their 2-0 win at Doncaster in midweek was impressive.
Millwall have lost just three of their 13 home games to date and have won their last four home league games, conceding just one goal in that run.

Match Bet: Steve Morison to score at anytime@ Evens

Scunthorpe v Preston (Sat 3pm)

These two teams are staring League One in the face, but both will remain hopeful of pulling off the great escape – three points here for either team could be crucial. Scunthorpe have the added pressure of being at home, where they  have gained just one win all season.

Preston meanwhile, will be buoyed by two back-to-back draws since Phil Brown took charge, thanks to two late goals. North End could go one better at Glanford Park this weekend.

Match Bet: Preston to win @ 7/4.

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