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Graham Hunter: David Villa is a man from La Roja’s past – he may need to also be their man of destiny

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Between the media and La Roja’s world champion players there has been much invoking of ‘four years ago’ over the last four days.

Back in South Africa, of course, Spain became the first team in history to win this trophy having lost the opening game.

En route to escaping the group the coincidence is that La Roja also needed to beat Chile back then, and did so.

David Villa (R) celebrates scoring first goal with Xabi Alonso (L) and Xavi 25/6/2010 00439885

COMETH THE HOUR: David Villa wheels away after scoring against Chile in 2010

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Thus it’s only natural, journalistically at least, for some to reach for comparisons and draw positive conclusions.

But there’s a snag.

  • Four years ago Spain lost 1-0 to Switzerland having totally dominated the game, shot at goal 24 times, put eight efforts on target, won 12 corners and suffered defeat only because it was one of those days when, as they say in La Liga, ‘the ball didn’t want to go in’.

Last Friday they were thrashed.

Four years ago Vicente Del Bosque’s men had Honduras, frankly a soft touch, as their second group rivals, and Chile third.

Chile also decided to abandon competitive football for the last 15 minutes of that game in Pretoria because they were sure that their progression was safe given the scoreline between Switzerland and Honduras and, at all costs, they didn’t want to surrender more goals to Spain. Del Bosque later called it the most placid 15 minutes of his tournament.

But let me remind anyone who’s forgotten the other parts of that game were anything but. Chile pressed and harassed like attack-dogs for the first chunk of the match, making their opponents feel like Marcelo Bielsa had somehow deployed 15 men on the pitch.

I fear it will be similar at the Maracana.

So, back to invoking the spirit of South Africa. I think it’s natural, but flawed.

Jean Beausejour (L) and Xabi Alonso in action 25/6/2010 00439884

SEEING RED: I’d expect this to be an aggressive game, in tackling and attacking

  • Betting: Slide into the latest Spain v Chile odds >

There are very few similarities and, already, del Bosque needs to be looking for men who are not stuck in the past – men of destiny.

The last two results in Brazil, defeated 3-0 by Brazil in the Confeds Cup a year ago and humiliated 5-1 in Salvador last week, have left La Roja looking like victims.

The air of invincibility has been stripped and, suddenly, those who cowered back will be queuing up to show that they are now the ‘fastest gun’.

It was ever thus. However ‘great’ you are/were, once the young bucks are after you the past counts for nothing.

As far as the world and European champions’ prospects go, Chile have one central tenet which is both welcome and threatening: they like to attack.

Spain have for the longest time been sick of teams who ‘park the bus’.

Those who attack La Roja reap benefits

The paradox is that the last two sides who have really ‘got after’ La Roja – Brazil and Holland – have reaped major benefits.

Xabi Alonso, Pedro, Juan Mata – each of them over the last 24 hours has spoken about the fact that Chile are a brave, daring and attacking side.

The word ‘aggressive’ has been used repeatedly too – all of which leads you to suppose that this might be yet another toe-to-toe match in this slugfest of a World Cup.

Good value for the fans.

They mean ‘aggressive’ in both senses of the word. In football terms every ball is a prisoner, energy is spent trying to overrun opponents and the team likes to buzz towards the opponent’s goal.

But they play by street rules.

Eduardo Vargas celebrates with Arturo Vidal after scoring 5/6/2014 00817155

DANGER MEN: Chile’s Eduardo Vargas celebrates with Arturo Vidal

In the last three games against Spain, Chile have seen three red cards, two of which came in a relatively unimportant friendly which really boiled over.

Perhaps that was because having never beaten La Roja and having been 2-0 up in St Gallen, Switzerland, Chile were horrified at being hauled back and overtaken 3-2 in Autumn 2011.

It was one of those games which proved to Vicente del Bosque that the effects of the ‘Clásico war’ were dying down and the feeling of ‘all for one’ had been re-established between his players. They went on to prove him right by winning Euro 2012.

There was a moment in that game when Iniesta was being bullied at the edge of the pitch by Arturo Vidal. Instantly two pretty entrenched rivals, Alvaro Arbeloa and Sergio Busquets, joined forces to rush across and ‘dive in’ on Iniesta’s behalf.

Danger men

There may be traces of that on Wednesday night. Players to watch for would include Iniesta who’s scored twice against Chile in the last three meetings and Eduardo Vargas. Vargas scored twice to rescue Chile in a pre-tournament friendly against Egypt which they threatened to lose and has also scored three times against Spain in the last three meetings.

By the day, training has gone from ghostly silent to boisterous and intense. The impact of the defeat against Holland was there, plain to see, but it has dissipated.

The words from del Bosque’s men have been bellicose. They want their pride restored, they want to get out of this group and, frankly, they think they will beat Chile.

I suspect they will. But this is one of those matches when if things go wrong, if nerves (of which there will be plenty) gnaw away at precision and confidence then the playing field will be pretty even.

David Villa

  • Betting: David Villa 9/5 to score anytime against Chile >

If David Villa doesn’t start then I’ll be confused. In training he’s looked sharper and sharper, he’s been scoring goals and right now he looks to be not only Spain’s all-time leading scorer but their most in-form striker.

This is a tournament for athletes. The weather, the tiredness of long flights – these are elements which give a premium to those who are strong, fast and quick to recover. As such there has to be a place, soon, for Javi Martínez in Spain’s attempts to retain their trophy.

This is a battle for survival. Expect the niceties to be abandoned. David Villa is a man from La Roja’s past – he may need to also be their man of destiny.

Graham Hunter is the author of ‘Spain: The Inside Story of La Roja’s Historic Treble’ and ‘Barca’. You can follow him on Twitter here

 

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Graham Hunter: Here’s how Diego Simeone has transformed Atletico Madrid from whipping boys to sadists

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There was a time when this would have been a Fifty Shades Of Grey fixture.

Barça v Atlético, home or away, began to get a bit sado-masochistic.

The Catalans, generally, imposing the pain, the Madrileños accepting the humilation. Both kept turning up for more.

While Barça didn’t ALWAYS win, Atlético’s ten matches with the Blaugrana prior to Diego Simeone taking over saw them concede 36 times.

An appalling figure, more pertinent to primary school football.

Then, get this, when the now guru-figure of Simeone did take over the first three results were all defeats and cost another eight goals.

Thirteen games, three wins, 44 conceded.

Since Barcelona last won this fixture there have been five meetings between the sides and Los Colchoneros have conceded just twice in that time.

From allowing nearly 3.4 goals per game to 0.4 a match. That ain’t bad.

Filter out the games at the Calderón and it was much, much more embarrassing. Prior to this season, Atlético lost 26 goals in six visits to the Camp Nou, the very stadium in which the league leaders require either a draw or a win to give them their first Spanish championship for 18 years.

They were shipping in four a game. Crazy

Eto for Barca v Atletico

The thing which helps establish beyond any doubt who is the most important man at Atletico, is the lineup from Los Colchoneros’ last defeat at the Camp Nou. In December 2012 Atleti took the lead against Barcelona. The XI which needed to defend that 0-1 lead for 59 minutes was: Courtois, Juanfran, Miranda, Godín, Filipe Lluis: Turan, Mario Súarez, Gabi, Koke: Falcao, Diego Costa.

It’s perfectly feasible that ten of those men take the pitch in Simeone’s starting XI on Saturday evening … and, dammit, you’d say that the presence of goal-matchine Falcao probably makes that a stronger side than the coach has at this disposal this weekend.

Fifty nine minutes later, however, they’d been trounced 4-1.

The previous Barça v Atleti result was 5-0. On that night the visitors fielded Courtois, Godín, Miranda, Mario Súarez, Tiago, Gabi and Diego – on the bench were Filipe Luis, Juanfran, Adrián and Arda.

Again, eleven players who might all be under the microscope as Spain’s Liga has it’s most high profile, most tense finale in history.

Simeone has taken all the same guys, added very little in terms of new talent, and completely transformed them from masochists to sadists.

Obviously, all this partly indicates how much Barcelona’s intensity, cutting edge, speed of play and individual brilliance has declined over the last ten months.

Leo Messi used to find scoring goals against Atlético, even when they had a knockout keeper like Courtois, easier than shooting goldfish in a barrel.

He’s now six meetings, and counting, without a goal or an assist against Los Rojiblancos.

Lionel Messi training Argentina

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Above all, those previous stats tell most about Simeone.

Yes, he’s working the team harder week in week out in training. Those who aren’t inspired by him are intimidated by him.

He demands that everyone train with at least as much, if not more, passion and appetite than they actually play with.

In that sense, if not in the philosophy of how games should be play, he’s Pep Guardiola’s brother from another mother.

But to take a group of men who were habitually used to being thrashed within an inch of their life (none of whom were ex public schoolboys) and to turn them into a stubborn, feisty, streetwise Dirty Dozen, as used to thwarting Barcelona as they were once beaten before the first whistle, is one hell of an achievement.

He’s succeeded in that most difficult of tasks – changing the psychology of an entire group. Unifying levels of hunger and confidence. Improving them

The ‘Cup Final’ mentality…

Twice in the last two seasons Simeone, evidently a terrific svengali figure for whom players will give ‘extra’ when they think they are empty and ready to punch the clock, has brought a winning ‘cup final’ end of term performance out of his troops.

Let’s call the Uefa Europa league final of 2012 and the Copa del Rey final of 2013 the direct equivalent of this ‘Cup Final’ which awaits Atleti on Saturday in Barcelona.

In 2012 Atleti weren’t quite supposed to be meat and drink for Athletic Club but the Basques’ performances that season, particularly in hammering Manchester United, indicated that they should have been properly threatening in the all-Spanish final.

Instead, Simeone’s Atleti were better from start to finish and in every possible department. They were fitter, they enjoyed the occasion more, they worked harder, they were cleverer and more effective – they completely bossed it.

A year later, again in a last-game-of-the-season-showdown, Atleti showed an utterly different characteristic. They fought and clawed to stay level with Real Madrid in the Copa Final and were grateful to Courtois for quite heroically keeping them in the contest.

They spent most of the night on the ropes but, via Miranda, they were still gutsy enough to produce the KO punch the instant that the opportunity presented itself.

Diego Simeone wiki edit

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Simeone has taught them many things, he’s added some tactical finesse – but his greatest achievement has been psychological.

From a squad happy enough to coast along in third or fourth position and happy enough not to wave a guillotine blade at Spain’s ancien regime of Real Madrid and Barcelona, the Argentine has turned them into a bunch of bloodthirsty Robespierres.

Nerves at the finish line?

So, from my perspective, the big question to be asked before Saturday evening’s kick off is how much psychological damage has been done by Atleti losing five of the last six points at what should have been a ‘Vive La Revolution!’ moment of the season?

The loss at Levante was understandable enough. Having won at Chelsea and suffered the emotional tsunami of that experience the City of Valencia stadium was a horrible place to have to go and carve out a result.

But there was a general expectation that the champions-elect would swamp Málaga and there was a backwash of disappointment and deflation to discover, post that 1-1 draw last weekend that a single goal would have won them the title given Barcelona’s stalemate at Elche.

I watched the sagging shoulders, the dull, ‘dammit!!’ faces, and the suddenly weary bodies at the end of that Málaga draw, players, Simeone, technical staff and fans – and I thought that there’d been a major over-reaction

For a club so in charge of its emotions and psychology all season I thought that there was a glimpse of self doubt and a lack of ‘know-now’ in terms of that last push to get over the line.

From a bunch of guys who reckoned that a) the title would be won before going to the Camp Nou or b) that if they had to go and win they would and could, it felt as if Atleti had allowed self-doubt to corrode their previously robust confidence.

This should be treatable. A good, thorough working week on the Majadahonda training ground, individual tuition, perhaps a wee night out – there has been sufficient time since the Málaga draw to iron out and psychological kinks. You’d think, at least.

A further question is whether, improbable though it seems, Simeone has having a few flutters. Warrior, yes. Successful, yes. Invincible – no.

It’s vital that, should Atleti go one nil down (Barcelona haven’t taken the lead against these rivals for seven matches, since February 2012) they don’t suddenly get those ‘novice’ nerves which so often prevent ‘underdogs’ from fulfilling their vaunted potential.

Advantage Atletico?

Other than the body language last week, the omens are red and white. Not only do two of the three possible results win Atleti the title they’ve had significantly the better of things this season.

Atleti have the only win of the five games between the sides this term, Atleti have produced three different scorers and two different assist-givers against Barcelona since August.

Barcelona’s only scorer v Simeone’s mob this season, Neymar, won’t start and, realistically, shouldn’t even play at this stage of his injury rehab.

Atleti, at a time when Barcelona continue to look awfully ragged at the back without Piqué, Puyol or Valdés, keep on producing some lovely set plays – and scoring from them. Simeone’s guys at the masters of transferring hard work and planning from the training ground to the battlefield.

Then there’s the final point in terms of psychology. You’d have to forgive the boys in red and white IF they, consciously or otherwise, felt that their final against Real Madrid a week on Saturday is more important.

You’d forgive them if they decided to play speculatively (for a draw) at the Camp Nou and then, having reserved something, go ‘all-out’ in Lisbon against Real Madrid.

You wold forgive them, but would Barça? Tata Martino’s side has been patchy and unreliable due to oscillating form this season – but they’ve shown, to the cost of Madrid, Man City, Ajax, Milan and Villarreal, that when they really want to .. they can.

Mateu Lahoz, easily Spain’s best and most diligent ref, will be in charge. He MAY have a style which allows a Simeone-esque side more liberty with physical play but that’s because he likes the game to flow, not because he promotes brutality.

Barcelona used to be the perfect side to profit from Lahoz – quicker and brighter in how they reacted when an incident looked like a foul but the ref waved play-on.

He gives a premium to those who are quick, talented, who concentrate and love the ‘advantage’ rule.

Even though they’ve been too sluggish in every respect, recently, to draw benefit from his style, Barcelona have nonetheless never lost with Lahoz in charge

One more thought about Barça. They have the psychological impact of all these ‘farewells’ at the Camp Nou. From Tito’s unfair, untimely death through to Victor Valdés slinking away after a private goodbye to this team mates and Carles Puyol retreating with all guns blazing.

Full military honours there.

Valdes and Puyol with European Cup

Do intangibles exist? Can Barcelona, slightly patched together where players’ form, fitness and energy levels are concerned, draw some sort of invincible emotional energy from the facts that Puyol and Valdés are going and Tito has gone forever?

More questions than answers. But a clear cut promise. IF Simeone has done his restorative psychology well, (as well as he’s managed with his squad all season) then Atleti will get their draw and their title.

If he hasn’t, then I suspect that this might prove to be a more vulnerable Atlético than Barcelona have faced in the previous handful of matches this season.

Game on.

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No rescue fund from Germany

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Germany have never lost to Greece in eight previous encounters and Friday’s Euro 2012 quarter-final showdown in Gdansk should hold few fears for the 9/4 outright betting favourites.

Joachim Low has played a straight bat about his side’s hopes of avoiding a Greek tragedy but one suspects the 52-year-old will not lose too much sleep over the 2004 tournament winners.

Greece should be commended for a never-say-die attitude and willingness to dig deep in the trenches. What they lack in style, they make up for in substance and it is this stubbornness which led them to glory in Portugal, where they kept the most clean sheets (three).

This time around they will be missing captain and talisman Giorgios Karagounis, who serves a one-game ban after picking up his second yellow card of the tournament against Russia, and this has to blunt them as an attacking unit.

The game-plan will be to stifle the Germans in midfield and cut off the supply lines but this is knockout football now and therein lies the problem for the Greeks.

The Germans have taken the lead in all three matches at Euro 2012, plus each of their 10 qualifiers, going on to win all of those games. They have not fallen behind in a competitive game since the third-place play-off against Uruguay at the 2010 World Cup and have won their last 14 competitive games.

Low has so many options going forward he should not be concerned about the risk of attacks being cut off at source – nor falling behind against the Greeks, so often the stuff of nightmares against such a resilient bunch.

Mario Gomez has found the form which deserted him at the end of the season for Bayern Munich and has hit three already during Euro 2012, so it is a surprise to see him priced up at 3/1 (First and Last Goalscorer).

Germany have scored two goals or more in 14 of their last 16 games but it may be wise to err against any exotic scorelines at PGE Arena, Gdansk – an angle highlighted by the presence of Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, whose tough austerity measures she has demanded in return for financial aid for the debt-laden Greeks make it unlikely she will be sunning herself on any of the country’s destination hot spots this summer.

Greece are short enough at 4/11 to book a place in the last four, with the draw priced up 4/1 and Greece out as big as 8/1 to complete an upset (90 minutes).

Expect the Germans to come away with a job-done outcome, with focal point Gomez 1-0 (16/1) and 2-0 (14/1) attractive in the Popular Scorecast Selections market.

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Lessons learned from the weekend

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It was a jam packed weekend of sport as the same old names and the same old faces dominated the headlines.
Sunday saw the curtain raiser to the Premier League season and Manchester United got the better of their ‘noisy neighbours’ Manchester City with a 3-2 victory in a thrilling Community Shield clash at Wembley.

United found themselves 2-0 down, despite dominating much of the possession and the early chances against the Blues.

However, not for the first time, the Red Devils showed why they have been so successful for so long by having that never-say-die attitude to score three goals and take yet more silverware back with them to Old Trafford.

United (7/4 Premier League 2011/2012 outright) have shown that once again they will be the side to beat in the Premier League this season and it will be down to the likes of City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal to do their best to stop them making it league title number 20.

In golf Adam Scott (22/1 USPGA Championship Outright) dominated in Ohio to win the WGC Bridgestone Invitational ahead of the final major of the season.

The Australian kept cool and calm down the back nine, as he finished on 17-under-par to win the last event before the USPGA Championship at Atlanta Athletic Club this week.

From a British perspective, it was pleasing to see the likes of Luke Donald, Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy do so well on the Firestone Country Club course.

World number one Donald finished second at the event and has continued the fine form that took him to the top of the rankings earlier this year.

Westwood and McIlroy also enjoyed decent rounds and all three players should go into this week’s major full of confidence.

It was the same old story with the Leeds Rhinos, as they booked their place in the Challenge Cup final after a narrow 10-8 victory over Castleford Tigers on Sunday.

The go-to-guys for Leeds (11/4 Challenge Cup outright) once again came to the fore as they came up against a spirited Tigers side who almost clinched a surprise victory at the Keepmoat Stadium.

If Rangi Chase had slotted that drop goal in the dying moments it would be Castleford who would be looking forward to a date at Wembley with Wigan Warriors in the Challenge Cup final.

However, it was the likes of Rob Burrow and Jamie Peacock who were able to set up field position in time added on, as Danny McGuire was taken down with a high tackle, before Rhinos legend Kevin Sinfield slotted the pressure penalty goal to seal the win.

Even though this has been somewhat of a transitional season for the Rhinos, this weekend showed they still have what it takes to win big games under pressure.

In a weekend with all the old names taking the limelight, it was refreshing to see a new name burst on to the international scene in rugby union as Manu Tuilagi’s debut against Wales gave England (12/1 World Cup 2011 outright) fans plenty to cheer about.

The Leicester Tigers centre showed why he is seen as such an exciting prospect following an impressive season in the Aviva Premiership.

Judging by his performance in England’s 23-19 victory at Twickenham on Saturday, Tuilagi has one foot on that plane to New Zealand, as head-coach Martin Johnson hopes to lead his country to a second World Cup title.

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2 from 5 in survival fight

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Sunday promises to provide the most thrilling Premier League relegation battle in history, with five teams battling to survive in the top flight. We take a look at all the contenders and who might be facing the prospect of Championship football next season.

Wigan

Roberto Martinez’s men have given themselves a chance of survival with just one defeat in their last five games – picking up eight points from a possible 15.

Their last-gasp win over West Ham not only gave them hope, but will have also boosted confidence in a big way ahead of Sunday’s final game.

Latics (Evens to stay up) go to Stoke to face a team who never roll over, although their recent FA Cup final defeat will have knocked some of the stuffing out of Tony Pulis’ injury-hit squad.

Wigan have only beaten the Potters once in their last eight meetings, with their last victory at the Britannia coming in November 2004.

Blackpool

Most neutrals will hope the Tangerines can survive, having upset the odds so often this season on a tight budget.

The recent win over Bolton was a must and having rediscovered their goal-scoring form in recent weeks, they have renewed hope.

Blackpool (4/11 to be relegated) have the toughest final game of the weekend, with a trip to champions Manchester United, but it threatens to be a much changed United team that they face.

Charlie Adam and co are capable of avoiding defeat at Old Trafford, but a draw is unlikely to be enough and three points looks like a tall order.

Birmingham

A lack of goals has been Birmingham’s big problem all season and may yet cost them a place in the Premier League.

Three goals in their last five games tells its own story, as does the leading scorer tally – which is topped by midfielder Craig Gardner, with just seven in the league.

Blues (11/10 to stay up) have an away date at Spurs on Sunday and having not won on the road since early February, the omens don’t look good for Alex McLeish’s men.

A solid defensive display is needed at White Hart Lane, as the goals against column could yet prove crucial.

Wolves

Mick McCarthy’s men are arguably the team in form at the bottom end of the table with two wins and a draw in their last three matches.

Their only concern going into Sunday’s final game at home to Blackburn is that their form against the teams around them is poor.

Wolves (11/2 to be relegated) have beaten the likes of Manchester United, Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool this term and should be too strong for their opponents on Sunday, with a win certain of keeping them up for a second season.

Blackburn

Rovers have won just one of their last 13 games and their fans have every reason to be worried about relegation.

Steve Kean’s men have won just three times on the road this season and a defeat at Molineux could see them end up in the bottom three.

The only plus for Rovers (8/1 to be relegated) going into the final games is that they have at least a better goal difference than their rivals – and that may yet prove crucial.

Prediction: Blackpool and Birmingham to be relegated with West Ham

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Five lessons from the weekend

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It has been another fantastic weekend of sport with football, motor racing, golf, tennis and cricket all providing entertainment and it is time to reflect on what we have learnt as the new week begins.

1. Manchester United need Wayne Rooney

The treble chance has now gone for the Red Devils following the 1-0 FA Cup semi-final defeat to rivals Manchester City and Rooney had to sit and watch from the stands after his two-game ban for swearing into a TV camera.

His actions against West Ham were widely condemned at the time and they came back to haunt the player and his club as United were unable to find the net against City. The England international hit-man is always likely to play on the edge due to his aggressive nature but he will need to curb his peripheral behaviour or run the risk of missing further big matches.

United have a star-studded side but they need their biggest star when it matters most (City 4/11 to win FA Cup).

2. Arsenal are not quite ready to challenge for the title

Having held onto United’s coattails all season Arsene Wenger’s men have stuttered of late and a third successive home draw has all but ended their title hopes this term. A six-point gap is not huge, but there are only six matches to play and they will probably have to win them all to take the title.

Wenger has consistently refused to buy experienced players and stuck to his policy of bringing youngsters through the ranks but it is obvious that he needs experienced players at this stage of the season to try and grind out results when it really matters. But that is not the Frenchman’s way. How long will the fans’ patience hold out for a trophy? (Arsenal 8/1 to win Premier League)

3. Andy Murray is not done yet.

Murray’s form going into the Monte Carlo Masters was woeful and his temperament had once again been called into question following his defeat to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open final. But he eased into the semi-finals on his least favourite clay court surface and gave world number one Rafael Nadal a real run for his money, pushing the Spaniard to three sets.

The fact that Nadal took the match did not matter to Murray’s army of fans, as they will have been relieved that he showed the fighting qualities necessary to win big tournaments. Losing to the greatest clay-court player of all time is no disgrace and will set him up nicely for the bigger things to follow (Murray 28/1 to win French Open).

4. Graeme Onions has an England future

The fast bowler looked to have established himself as an England regular in his eight Tests before injury struck on the 2010 tour to Bangladesh. He missed the entire domestic season last year and reportedly feared for his future. But after working tirelessly to get back to fitness the 28-year-old returned to take five wickets in his first competitive bowl for more than a year as Durham beat Yorkshire to go top of the Division one standings.

James Anderson and Stuart Broad are nailed on to be part of the England attack this summer and it would be no surprise to see Onions back in the ranks, fitness permitting (Durham 11-4 to win Div 1 title).

5. Sebastian Vettel better watch out for the Brits

World champion Vettel was favourite to retain his title and, after wining the first two Grand Prix of the season, it could be seen why. But Lewis Hamilton’s superb drive to win the China Grand Prix has breathed life into the sport and proved that the German will not have it all his own way this season.

After battling with Vettel all the way, Hamilton passed his great rival with just four laps to go and it was significant moment for the former champion as it proved that he does have the speed to compete with the flying Red Bulls. Vettel still leads the standings but with Lewis second and Jenson Button third, to coin an Oscar-night phrase from Colin Welland, the British are coming (Hamilton 5/2 to win F1 title).

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5 things learnt from internationals

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This week gave us a chance to check out the home nations and the Republic of Ireland in the first internationals of 2011. Hopes were high for most, but for some there was more to be happy about than others. For Wales and Northern Ireland a sense of dread will have been the endearing emotion. With the Euro 2012 qualifiers set to get back underway next month, we examine who can look forward to them and who should watch from behind their sofas……

1 – England have hope after ‘golden generation’

Before England’s win over Denmark, all the focus was on whether Jack Wilshere would do well in his new role as a holding midfielder. Well, as they say, the proof was in the pudding as the 19-year-old showed he is a class above Gareth Barry. The Manchester City man struggled in the World Cup and based on Wilshere’s performance this week, his days as a starter could be numbered. The World Cup and subsequent Euro 2012 qualifiers have shown green shoots of hope, particularly with the likes of James Milner, Joe Hart, Wilshere, Theo Walcott and Michael Dawson showing their international capabilities.

After being let down by Frank Lampard, Rio Ferdinand, John Terry and co, England fans might be feeling a little bit optimistic about what the future will hold. England’s win over a decent Denmark team showed the Three Lions have strength in depth, with a raft of changes seemingly not affecting their rhythm. It is probably too early to start talking about England as Euro 2012 contenders, but at 9/1 to win the tournament I’m sure a few punters will be persuaded to take the plunge.

2 – Republic of Ireland should reach Euro 2012

While it is dangerous to read too much into friendly matches, Ireland’s comfortable win over Wales can’t really be ignored. While the first half was nothing to write home about, the second saw them score three good goals and they never really had to break a sweat. The Republic currently sit second in their qualification group behind Russia, who beat them in October.

Ireland are 5/4 to make it through to Euro 2012 and as long as they avoid France in the play-offs, they should be fine. People will say they haven’t made it out of the group yet but with Armenia and Slovakia – who lost to Luxembourg on Wednesday – their closet contenders, it could be a triumphant return to a major tournament after a ten years absence.

3 – Levein starting to get the best from Scots

Wednesday’s victory over Northern Ireland in the Nations Cup might have been expected, but perhaps the manner in which they so convincingly beat Nigel Worthington’s men might have come as a shock. Scotland’s third goal involved a build-up that Spain would have been proud of as they passed Northern Ireland off the park.

Scotland’s hopes of qualifying for Euro 2012 are all but gone, after one win from their first four qualifiers,, but the future is beginning to look bright. Scotland are 8/1 to qualify for their first major tournament since the 1998 World Cup and they seem unlikely to break that duck just yet, especially with Spain in their group. However, the battling display against the world champions and two wins since then have given cause for optimism for 2014 World Cup qualification.

4 – Without their star men Wales are poor

Optimism surrounding Wales was high after Gary Speed took the reins as national team coach. However, reality made a speedy return to Welsh supporters after their disappointing 3-0 defeat at the hands of the Republic of Ireland. Speed had plenty of big name withdrawals to cope with and without them, Wales justify their position as 116th in the Fifa rankings. Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey and Craig Bellamy are effectively Welsh football right now and until Speed can unearth some fresh talent, they looked doomed to struggle for the next few years.

Wales play England next in their Euro 2012 campaign, which is already over after three defeats in their first three matches.  In Cardiff, and with Welsh fans baying for blood, they might give England a bloody nose but that could be as good as it gets.

5 – Northern Ireland going backwards

Remember the days when Northern Ireland were on the verge of qualifying for a major tournament and David Healy was the most prolific striker in Europe? Well they appear long gone and if you are a supporter of Worthington’s men, you might be concerned. Wednesday was a glimpse into what the future might hold for the North and it wasn’t pretty. Admittedly they had 11 players missing but when you make a big fuss over George McCartney retiring from international football, you know you are in trouble.

Like Wales their hopes of making it through to Euro 2012 are pretty much over, a draw against the Faroe Islands in a game which did nothing to convince Northern Ireland’s fans things will get better. For Worthington and co expect a long, hard 2011.

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3 from 6 as drop battle heats up

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Bet on the Premier LeagueIt may have been a record-breaking weekend for goals in the Premier League, but it was also notable for some of the division’s so-called dead-men stirring back into life as two of the bottom three secured vital wins and dragged a clutch of clubs into the fight for survival.

It could be that clubs as far up as Newcastle in tenth position will be embroiled in a relegation battle, but I feel it will boil down to three clubs from six who will eventually go to the wire in the battle for Premier League salvation.

From the bottom up I will look at the six clubs who are in for a nail-biting finale to what has been a remarkable season in England’s top-flight.

WEST HAM

Avram Grant’s Hammers looked on course for the drop after being in the dreaded bottom spot at Christmas which historically means Championship football will be on the menu the following August (8/13 Relegation).

And after the midweek 3-1 win at Blackpool had them on the cusp of jumping out of the bottom three, they crashed 1-0 to drop rivals Birmingham at Upton Park on Sunday.

This has put the Londoners back on the foot of the table, albeit just two points from safety.

They have a massive game at fellow strugglers and managerless West Brom coming this weekend so will get another chance to try and break free from the shackles of the drop zone.

With the likes of Robbie Keane, Gary O’Neil, Wayne Bridge and Demba Ba all brought in last month, I can see the Hammers emulating West Brom’s 2005 antics and re-writing the history books by achieving the ‘Great Escape’ after being bottom at Christmas (6/5 To Stay Up).

WOLVES

Had I assessed the sides who I felt were destined for the drop two days ago then I would have made Mick McCarthy’s men absolute bankers (8/11 Relegation).

However, it is amazing how one result can shatter your way of thinking and Saturday’s stunning 2-1 win against Manchester United certainly did that.

The Molineux success not only ended Sir Alex Ferguson’s bid for a record 30-game unbeaten run, but it also ruined a fair few betting coupons of people hanging on that one last result!

On top of that it moved Wolves – who had gone into the match on the back of three successive defeats – off bottom spot and to within two points of 17th place.

They have a tough date at Arsenal to come this weekend, but a massive Black Country derby at West Brom follows, as does a home clash with Blackpool.

The outcome of those games could determine which division they are playing in next season (Evens To Stay Up).

WIGAN

Roberto Martinez’s side did their survival hopes the power of good with a 4-3 win against Lancashire rivals Blackburn at the DW Stadium on Saturday to follow up a valuable point picked up at fellow strugglers West Brom in midweek.

The win against Rovers was their first league success at the eighth time of asking and will have boosted their confidence for the coming games.

However, as they face Liverpool, Manchester United and Manchester City in the next three matches, they could be looking up at everyone else soon (4/7 Relegation).

WEST BROM

The Baggies are on the slippery slope following a fantastic return to the top-flight when they only lost twice in their opening nine games.

However, they have lost 13 of their last 18 matches, with Saturday’s 3-0 defeat at Manchester City leaving the side out of the bottom three by virtue of having a better goal difference than Wigan.

The defeat at Eastlands has also cost boss Roberto Di Matteo his job as Albion chairman Jeremy Peace revealed he had to act now to stop the rot and try and ensure his club do not live up to their ‘yo-yo’ tag by dropping back to the Championship after just one season in the top flight (1/2 To Stay Up).

The choice of new boss, with Sam Allardyce hotly tipped, will be crucial for their survival hopes.

They also have massive games against West Ham and derby rivals Wolves in the next two weeks and the results of those could make-or-break the Baggies’ season.

At the moment 6/4 for relegation looks a good bet.

BIRMINGHAM

Alex McLeish’s Blues have been unfortunate to slip into the relegation battle as they have been distracted by the weather, not to mention their run to the Carling Cup Final (11/4 Outright) and fifth round of the FA Cup.

They do have at least one game in hand on all of the teams around them, whilst also possessing the battling qualities needed to pull away from danger. These were displayed in the 1-0 win at West Ham on Sunday which followed the 2-2 draw against Manchester City at St Andrews in midweek.

Nikola Zigic seems to have finally found his feet in England, while new loan signing Obafemi Martins is still to come into the fold.

They will be the first to admit they draw too many home games, but I would be astonished if the Blues are relegated this season (7/2 Relegation).

BLACKPOOL

As much as it pains me to do this, I am afraid that Ian Holloway’s Seaside entertainers have got to be included in the main contenders for relegation this season.

They were written off before a ball had even been kicked, but Blackpool have produced some exceptional results this season, with five away wins so far and a league ‘double’ over Liverpool the highlight (Seasiders 8/15 To Stay Up).

However, since the second win against Kenny Dalglish’s Reds, the Tangerines have lost five games on the bounce to slip to within two points of the bottom three.

They have conceded 16 goals in those games and this is not a major surprise given that they refuse to shut up shop at any point in matches and appear to have a ‘we’ll score more goals than you’ attitude.

While this might have worked for them earlier in the season, it is now catching up with them and if Holloway continues playing the same tactics then the curtain could come down on Blackpool this May as far as Premier League football is concerned (11/8 Relegation).

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Carlo can’t hide from cracks

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The unedifying sight of John Terry and Didier Drogba arguing as they left the pitch at Stamford Bridge on Sunday could be viewed one of two ways by onlookers (9/2 Chelsea – Premier League outright).

It could be, as Carlo Ancelotti attempted to explain in his best broken English, construed as two senior players letting off a bit of steam at the end of a frustrating 3-3 draw against Aston Villa in which the double winners had trailed 2-1 before being within touching distance of back-to-back Premier League wins.

Instead, it could be more evidence that all is not well on board the good ship Chelsea.

The champions remain in fifth place but are six points behind the leaders Manchester United, who have a game in hand over them and have yet to visit west London. Ancelotti’s team have taken just ten points from an available 30 to slip from the summit of English football ahead of their midweek trip to Wolves (Wolves 6/1 draw 10/3 Chelsea 4/9 – match betting).

Sir Alex Ferguson suggested before the weekend the open nature of the race for the title was a “dream” for fans and players alike – but whether Chelsea will be part of it on current form is now open to debate.

Manchester City could again flex their financial muscle in the January window, Arsenal appear on the cusp of finally realising their potential and Tottenham’s all-out-attack approach could see them go close.

One area of obvious concern for Ancelotti has to be a leaking defence which has shipped in 17 goals in all competitions going back to, and including, the 2-0 defeat by Liverpool at the start of November last year.

“Defensively, we lost something, obviously,” Ancelotti said, when reflecting on Sunday’s stalemate.

Another concern, highlighted on Sunday, was the lack of cohesion and zip between principal goal threats Nicolas Anelka and Drogba, who scored against Villa but was otherwise anonymous (9/2 Drogba – Premier League top goalscorer).

“They have difficulty in this moment but Drogba scored today and for a striker, that’s very important,” added the Italian.

Ancelotti said the visit to the capital of United in March would determine whether or not Chelsea will retain their domestic crown and he can take heart from the affection afforded to him by the players when Terry put the Blues in front.

It sparked memories of when they did the same for former manager Luiz Felipe Scolari after a late winner by Frank Lampard against Stoke City in January 2009.

Scolari was sacked three weeks later.

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What we learned from this weekend’s football

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Tempted to say ‘not very much’ due to the lack of action but, delving into the games that did beat what the tabloids call the ‘big-freeze’ this weekend, there were some interesting pointers to take away from the chilling action.

It’s not all lost for West Ham….yet

The team who is bottom at Christmas usually ends the season there and, while the Hammers (4/9f to be relegated) are adrift at the moment, their 1-1 draw against Blackburn shows the fighting spirit is there under embattled boss Avram Grant.

Scotty Parker remains the Hammers’ key man and his influence on the game on Saturday grew as it went on, as they deservedly managed to get a point off Rovers – no mean feat despite the mood in the home dressing room following Big Sam’s sudden departure.

If the Hammers can replicate their second-half form in the coming weeks, then safety could yet be within their grasp (West Ham to win at Fulham on Boxing Day – 5/2).

Craig Gordon is a fine goalkeeper

Despite an injury-disrupted start to life at Sunderland, the Scot proved – in one moment of genius – that the £9million man can yet become the world-class stopper many thought he was destined to be, when he joined in 2007 from Hearts.

His wonder-save has since been played down by Gordon, who insisted he has made better in the past. That’s a big claim such was the quality of the reaction stop from close-range to deny Bolton’s Zat Knight, but the goalie – with obviously sky-high standards – said afterwards it’s only “in his top five”.

Maybe he hadn’t seen it on TV at that point because, trust us Craig, it’s a belter!

Leeds are on a roll

A 2-0 win over leaders QPR (11/10 – Championship Outright) leaves the once-mighty Leeds United second in the Championship (12/1 to win it) and finely placed to mount a serious title charge in the second half of the season.

Simon Grayson’s side continue to look the part and the 30,000 who braved the sub-zero West Yorkshire temperatures (or maybe just got out of the Christmas shopping) on Saturday were well rewarded.

Max Gradel’s double means Leeds are now nine games unbeaten and means there is finally a real belief that they can finally get back into the big time.

Exeter have the best groundstaff there is!

Only one game survived in League One and Exeter (20/1 to be promoted) will have been well pleased they managed to get their clash at home to Sheffield Wednesday on, after a 5-1 mauling of the Owls.

The south west was one of the worst-hit areas in terms of snow over the weekend, but a mammoth effort from the Grecians (and plenty of eager local volunteers too, it has to be said) ensured they were able to beat the weather.

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