The post Watch: Graham Hunter has a 9/2 double for the last weekend of the La Liga season – and he’s praying Getafe go down! appeared first on Paddy Power Blog.
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Okay, okay – I hear you Paddy Power punters.
I hear that Atlético Madrid are your most-backed La Liga team to win the title.
So you pretty much didn’t care if the Istanbul inhabitants hoisted their ‘Welcome To Hell’ banners when Diego Simeone’s team reached the Galatasaray stadium on Wednesday.
That was Europe. Pah!
But you’d obviously prefer it if Eibar’s inhabitants, players and hotel owners were all ‘hippy peace and love’ and ‘San Fransisco flowers in your hair’ when Atleti go to the Ipurúa stadium on Saturday night [Sky Sports 19.30]
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The easier Atleti pocket three points the happier you’re gonna feel. Right?
Three points? Quite possibly.
Peace and love? Ain’t gonna happen baby.
Atleti may be kindly regarded by those with rebel sentiments but they are still a ‘Madrid‘ team travelling to the Basque country.
Up there you don’t just get another notch on the bed post for sticking it to any team from the Spanish capital – you get a diamond-encrusted king-sized, four poster with a nubile young chambermaid awaiting your orders. Ribena or Rioja I mean.
Eibar’s right sided midfielder Keko began at Atleti and knows what’s awaiting his former club.
“With coach Mendilibar every one of us knows there’s a single obligation if we want to be picked. “We have to snarl and bite and run like dogs of war. “The day any of us wants the ball to feet or thinks we can play luxury football they’ll be dropped and we’ll lose”
Right now, the world seems upside down.
Atleti, league winners in 2014, Champions League finalists that same month and trophy- winners every single season since 2009/10 are sixth to Eibar’s fifth.
Unlike Cholo Simeone’s team the Basques are unbeaten and Eibar also have the better goal difference.
But since Eibar repaired their pitch, which was like the Somme, good teams go there, feel unstressed in front of what is [since a couple of weeks ago] a 6,000 maximum crowd and knock the ball about.
Meaning Eibar have a task on their hands.
Antoine Griezmann remains a right good guy to back for both first goal and any-time. Jackson Martinez, too, merits some any-time action.
Buzzing with form given freedom to roam across the front line Griezmann got two in Istanbul in midweek – both off his left foot. [As have 9 of the Frenchman’s last 11 goals been. Hint hint]
Eibar are a cracking story, represent great values – but have their work cut out.
Barça, now here’s a shock, profile as a home banker [19.30 Sunday, Sky Sports]
They host Levante, popularly known as the Frogs, who are knee-deep in trouble here.
Geddit? Knee-deep, knee-deep. Frog noises. Okay, never mind.
The Spanish and European champions were much more vulnerable to shocks at home than away last season.
Not only did they lose to Celta and Málaga at the Camp Nou they lost to nil, too [0-1 and 0-1]
Luis Enrique’s team still start without Claudio Bravo, Dani Alves, Gerard Piqué and Rafinha and come off the back of consecutive tiring, testing away matches in Madrid and Rome.
But that should be a question of the win margin, not whether Barcelona triumph.
Every so often the Catalans find this lot a bit indigestible and the margin ends in a single goal.
Far more often it’s a walloping.
Of the last five Levante visits to the Camp Nou Barcelona have scored five twice, seven once – but the others have been 1-0 and 2-1.
Here’s a stat to help you make your decision.
In their seven competitive matches so far Barça have hit the woodwork SEVEN times.
An indication of sloppiness/bad luck? Or that they are just about to punch someone’s lights out goal-wise?
The ‘villains’ have been Rafinha, Pedro, Piqué, Sergi Roberto, Mascherano, Luis Suárez and Messi.
Perm between the Argentinian, Neymar and Suárez for first goal – but I’ve a slight preference for Suárez this time out because he’s bursting with form and confidence while both Neymar and Messi gave evidence, in Rome, that jet lag from the international break still wasn’t out of their systems.
Madrid host Granada early on Saturday [15:00 kick off UK time] and they will win. By 3+.
James Rodríguez, Gareth Bale, Sergio Ramos and Danilo all out injured isn’t a happy stat if you fancy Madrid to rack up five or six goals.
But back Rafa’s boys to win, back them by three or more and back Ronaldo for everything short of the Labour leadership.
Eight goals in his last two games is nothing. Last season he smacked 20 in eleven Liga outings and just five months ago he pumped Granada for five in a 9-1 win in this fixture.
Griezmann, Jackson, Suárez, Messi, Ronaldo for first goalscorer or any time scorer; left footed goal from Griezmann; one goal win for Atleti; Barça and Madrid to win by over two and over three respectively. You’re welcome.
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At the beginning of Primal Scream’s brilliant 1990 tune ‘Loaded’ when Frank Maxwell asks Peter Fonda: ‘Just what is it that you want to do?’ Fonda knows the answer.
“We wanna be free to do what we wanna do
“We’re gonna have a good time. “We’re gonna have a party”
And if you asked the Real Madrid fans that same question you’d get exactly the same answer.
Sick of being second best to Barcelona, sick of football they view as pragmatic they want their cake and to eat it.
With champagne, and golden spoons and second helpings.
But if you asked the President, Florentino Pérez or Madrid’s debutant coach, Rafa Benítez the same ‘just what is it that you want to do?’ question the answer might be different.
Much more pragmatic.
Thursday’s Champions League draw gives them a group perfectly balanced not only for an assault on Europe but for the right kind of early season test.
Paris St Germain have shown over the last three seasons with Barcelona and Chelsea [ten games, two wins, four draws, four defeats] that they are on the rise and that they can threaten anyone on their day.
Not a side Madrid have to fear but one which will mean Los Blancos will need to focus and find top gear [no Primal Scream reference there] in order to subdue.
Madrid start at home, and their first away trip is far easier and less tiring than PSG’s.
Their final group game is at home and against, nominally, the weakest team. Even the schedule is on their side.
However, and this might be heretical, is winning the Champions League actually Benitez’s priority?
‘Just what is it you want me to do, Florentino?’ might well be Rafa’s question to the Madrid President.
Los Blancos have won the Spanish title twice in the last eight years.
Their fans and some of their ‘cyclops-vision’ media not only crave it, they crave the opportunity to wave two fingers at their city neighbours, Atlético, who won the title more recently, and Barcelona, who’ve dominated La Liga for a decade.
More, Carlo Ancelotti was shown the door in the summer just 12 months after winning the Champions League so dramatically against Atleti.
A victory which, if you consider the alternative for Madrid, should really have earned him another five years of job safety at the Bernabéu. It didn’t.
So whatever the sheen of Madrid’s history says, whatever the threat of Barça closing the European Cup gap between them still further Rafa Benítez must prioritise doing something he’s not achieved since the last time he coached in Spain, eleven years ago – winning the title.
Will that undermine trying to win La undécima? Madrid’s eleventh Champions Cup?
The answer lies with Ronaldo. Whatever the club’s ambitions he wants more Champions Leagues, he wants to haul Messi back in the Ballon D’Or voting and, judging by his variety of sour looks in Monte Carlo on Thursday, he wants to win the UEFA Best Player In Europe back.
Vitally, too, Ronaldo wants to edge ahead of Messi with whom he’s tied at 77 goals apiece at the top of the all-time Champions League scoring list.
With nine games of Rafa in charge Madrid have failed to score on five occasions, usually with Ronaldo absent.
So, I think there’s some fun in the Ronaldo-Messi betting.
Ronaldo has significantly outscored his rival over the last four Champions League seasons – by nine.
The last time Messi beat Ronaldo to UCL top scorer was in 2011/12 – coincidentally the last time he had a shot at Bayer Leverkusen or Bate, Barça’s new group rivals.
Against Bernd Leno, Leverkusen keeper, Messi scored six in two matches. In Borisov he put two past BATE.
Clues for this season?
Ronaldo hasn’t faced [and thus not scored against!] any of Madrid’s group rivals.
So, a priori, it might be worth an investment that Messi outscores Ronaldo this Uefa season, finishes Champions League top scorer and, thus, establishes the all-time lead.
Valencia, qualifiers, have a group in which Zenit and Lyon are both within Los Che’s orbit – beatable but, equally, capable of exploiting Nuno Espirito Santo’s team if they perform dozily.
The key to qualification is taking at least seven points from the first three games – home to Zenit, away to Lyon and then home to the weakest club, Gent.
In fact having home then away back-to-back matches with the Belgians is manna from heaven in terms of qualifying for the knockouts.
If you run a fantasy football team or like to look for less than obvious scorers then think about Sofiane Feghouli who just loves Uefa football and consistently rises to the challenge.
Their Group to Luis
Barcelona, who I think are capable of being the first to retain this competition, were given a draw that the naive think was wonderful but which will concern Luis Enrique.
Ex coach of Roma he’ll understand how hostile it is there and that starting at the Olympic Stadium in Italy’s capital is no ‘gimme’.
That their third fixture is also away, in Belorussia, means that the reigning champions need to start with concentration and hunger.
You’re laughing at me? BATE Borisov you splutter?
Beat Athletic Bilbao last season, thumped Bayern Munich the season before. BATE better than Barça, no. A niggly little test, yes.
Which leaves the two sides who play at the Sanchez Pizjuan on Sunday night [19.30, Sky] – Sevilla and Atlético.
Atleti catch Benfica [whose striker Jonas didn’t mind a goal or an assist against the Colchoneros during his time with Valencia] at a good time given their consistent sales policy and the loss of influential coach Jorge Jesus.
Galatasaray and Astana carry their levels of threat/difficulty but Diego Simeone’s side is so hard working, so well balanced and so bloody stubborn that they’ll win the group regardless.
Sevilla? Well aside from the €20m cash windfall of qualifying the Champions League has brought them the reality of fighting for elbow room at Europe’s elite table.
Manchester City, Juventus and Borussia Mönchengladbach [who Sevilla put out of Europe last season] may prove too much for qualification, especially after losing three key players in Vidal, M’Bia and Bacca and needing to integrate new guys like Immobile, Konoplyanka and Llorente.
But, could Sevilla surprise everyone again by qualifying? Might they even retain the Europa League for the second consecutive time if not?
As for Sunday, it’s now six Liga and Cup matches since Sevilla beat Atleti at home.
There’s ill feeling between the sides who jostle to be considered third best in Spain – nearly eight bookings per match, average, over the last four meetings if you are a card-counter.
A splurge of reds in the Copa a couple of seasons ago.
Sevilla are nobody’s mugs though having lost just once at home since March 2014 [2-3 to a Ronaldo hat trick in May]
Griezmann, Llorente and a Coke/Koke any time might pay.
Score draw. 2-2 at 14/1.
Atleti: Oblak; Juanfran, Godín, Gímenez, Felipe; Koke, Gabi, Tiago; Oliver; Griezmann, Torres/Jackson
Sevilla: Beto: Coke, Rami, Kolo, Tremoulinas: Banega, Krykowiak: Vitolo, Iborra, Reyes: Immobile/Llorente
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I won’t go into the deeply complicated reasons for the strike which has been announced for immediately after this weekend. But what you’ll have to take into account when you are betting on La Liga for week 36, is that most teams and most players will go into these games with the mentality that this may very well be La Liga’s final, and thus decisive, weekend.
There’s always the possibility of arbitration and conciliation but right now you’d call that an ‘odds-against’ proposition.
Various football rules and Spanish laws mean that if there’s no compromise thrashed out then we could very easily be left with a 36-week Liga – the title, the UEFA positions and relegation could all become formalized by late on Sunday night.
Thus you should imagine that everyone involved has that extra incentive to give everything they’ve got – one last push.
Barcelona‘s players and fans should probably form a guard of honour and applaud David Moyes and his Txuri-Urdin footballers on to the Camp Nou pitch. It was that defeat at the Anoeta in January, a miserable low-point in terms of performance, man-management and player-coach relationships, which utterly galvanized Barça. They trudged off that wet Basque playing surface looking not just beaten but dispirited, disjointed and lacking in spirit.
From that day to this, they’ve won 16 of 18 Liga games (one defeat, one draw), six out of six cup games and five out of five Champions League games.
Twenty nine matches, twenty seven wins, and 94 goals since January.
And there’s the rub – The last time Barcelona lost or drew against La Real at the Camp Nou Johan Cruyff was in charge and it was mid-1995.
In the intervening twenty years, there have been some hammerings – 4-1 and 5-1 in the last two visits for example.
Moyes’ team is now fitter, plays with a clearer pattern and young talent has been promoted, to good effect. But they’ve not really conquered their affliction of going on the road and representing the character and thorny stubbornness which they can display at the Anoeta. That might cost them here.
A complicating factor is that Barcelona left a lot out on the pitch on Wednesday against Bayern - a lot of energy spent and a huge amount of adrenaline burned off. Luis Enrique‘s men increasingly look like champions, whether by default or merit, but they’ve not been invulnerable here. The 0-1 defeats to Celta and Málaga testify to that.
There’ll be some squad rotation – you’d expect some from Xavi, Sergi Roberto, Rafinha, Pedro and Bartra to get starts, and some from Suárez/Neymar, Busquets, Iniesta, and Rakitic to get a rest.
Might this be Xavi’s last game at the Camp Nou? Yes. He’ll leave this summer and the strike means it’s feasible that this is the Camp Nou’s last match for three months. It’s also feasible that if Barcelona drop points it’s ‘adios’ la Liga. If Madrid were to win later on and La Liga to be abandoned at J36 then that, as they say, would be that.
Moyes loses Zurutuza to injury and might well start with: Rulli Zaldua, Ansotegi/Mikel, Iñigo Martínez, De la Bella; Markel, Rubén Pardo, Granero; Xabi Prieto, Canales, Vela. Mikel González has had his suspension overturned and is available
Pre-strike this game was intriguing enough. But now!
Valencia‘s road-form is just about their only minus of the season. They’ve already registered 23 points more than last term, scoring 13 more than 2013/14. Away from home, however, there has been a slight inconsistency – sometimes lacking in strategic discipline, which would underline their lack of a top class striker to bring goals and points when everything seems against you.
Bluntly, the addition of Álvaro Negredo hasn’t yet been a success. Having said all that, that weaker Valencia side last season not only drew at the Bernabéu, but they cost Madrid the title.
More? Valencia have managed three consecutive draws at the Bernabéu so who could totally disregard them on a weekend when Los Blancos have much, much more to think about in midweek – they need a ‘remontada’ (fightback) against Juve.
To the next complicating factor. IF Barcelona have drawn or lost to David Moyes’ Real Sociedad then this will be an absolute and utter baying mob of a stadium. In that hypothesis, victory would stand a decent chance of winning Los Blancos the title, either by a point or on the head-to-head rule.
Valencia, if the league ended this weekend [something which nobody can guarantee], would automatically finish fourth as they have a three point lead over Sevilla and the ‘head-to-head’ advantage.
Their most reliable striker, Paco Alcácer, reckons: “We are quite clear that we’re going to Madrid to win and that we can do it. “We’re not going to throw away the great work of the season, and getting into the Champions League is our only objective”.
Diego Alves seems fit having suffered from thigh muscle problems a few days ago, Enzo Pérez is likely to return – likely with Javi Fuego, Dani Parejo and Sofiane Feghouli in midfield. Rodrigo Moreno is suspended so Piatti and Alcácer up front looks most likely.
Carlo Ancelotti needs to figure out who to rest, who needs more game time. Bale, anonymous in Turin, desperately needs a game like this to earn some match sharpness. Benzema might make this test in order to warm up for the visit of Juve, but the Italian needs to figure out whether this is just a shade too early for a striker who could be vital on Wednesday?
It is time for Chicharito to be restored, and score. Ronaldo looks in the groove. Parejo scored one and made one here last year and has had a stellar season in terms of goals – so he, Otamendi or Piatti might stand an investment.
This fixture presents one of the most remarkable records in Spanish football. Levante, a traditionally a struggling, under-resourced, backs-to-the-wall kind of club have won five, drawn one and only lost three of their Primera Division home meetings with Atlético – Spain’s third force. Three of the last results between these sides at the Ciutat de Valencia stadium have been 2-0 to Los Granotes.
The last one was a year ago, and Atleti’s legion of fans broiled in the heat without a thing to shout about as Levante hustled and hassled the champions-elect out of their mojo. David Barral (worth a shout this weekend), scored in that game, and has twelve in 31 games this season – his best pro-rata return ever.
Levante’s threat is lessened thanks to the suspension of Victor and Simão. The former should have been out last week and available this one but the May Day holiday meant that the disciplinary committee didn’t sit in time and the five-booking suspension is held over for this visit of the champions. For Cholo Simeone‘s mob, Diego Godín is also banned. Other than that, he’s got a wide choice of players and they’ve all had a clear week to recuperate mentally and physically.
‘Marca’ headlined this ‘The worst stadium at the worst possible time’. Only at the Camp Nou has Cholo a worse record in his three years in charge, compared to a draw and two defeats at Levante.
From training it looks a little like Simeone will try to end his impoverished record here via: Oblak, Juanfran, Giménez, Miranda, Siqueira, Arda, Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Griezmann and Mandzukic. Fernando Torres and Raúl García benched.
One thing that might be worth taking into account is that Atlético feel dreadfully cheated of a win after last week’s officiating in the 0-0 draw at home to Athletic. They had at least two legitimate goals chalked-off, perhaps a penalty too, and in the dressing room afterwards the squad’s fitness coach, Óscar Ortega, absolutely tore strips off the Atlético President, Enrique Cerezo, for not ‘pressurizing’ referees and the Spanish FA in public sufficiently – i.e. so that Atleti get more favourable treatment.
You might reckon that this frustration, bottled up for a week, might be taken out on Levante. Griezmann, Siqueira and/or Arda to put an end to Atleti’s horrible run without a win here since 2007.
A bit of a ‘ghost’ contest this one.
Between the two clubs there will be at least 11 important players missing via suspension or injury. The key nine are Nolito, Álex López, Hugo Mallo, Cabral and Larrivey suspended for Celta plus Reyes, Tremoulinas and Mbia for Sevilla. The first two are suspended, and Mbia suffered a head injury in the brilliant 3-0 win over Fiorentina in the Europa League semi final on Thursday.
The Galicians have three wins and a draw in the last five of these fixtures at the Balaídes. There’s a hint of doubt though, in the fact that Celta are in the bottom half of the table for home form. That’s depite the fact that they recently gave both Barcelona and Real Madrid barnstorming games (1-1 and 2-4) and they beat Atlético [2-0] not that long ago.
Add to that that Sevilla are top five in terms of away form and you might be tempted to back Unai Emery‘s side who look like they may defend their Europa League title and land a Champions League place that way.
Who Emery rests before the trip to Florence this week is a key – and hard to discern. Time for Gameiro, Iborra and Denis Suárez to get starts. Aleix Vidal, is in the form of his life – just beyond good in the last few games.
Maybe look at Vidal, Vitolo, Gameiro and Iborra for threat. Charles, Santi Mina and Orellana need to step up for the light blues.
Carlos Velasco Carbello is the referee, and for those who count cards and like to punt on that market, he booked nine and sent one off the last time these two sides met in Sevilla last January.
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I won’t go into the deeply complicated reasons for the strike which has been announced for immediately after this weekend. But what you’ll have to take into account when you are betting on La Liga for week 36, is that most teams and most players will go into these games with the mentality that this may very well be La Liga’s final, and thus decisive, weekend.
There’s always the possibility of arbitration and conciliation but right now you’d call that an ‘odds-against’ proposition.
Various football rules and Spanish laws mean that if there’s no compromise thrashed out then we could very easily be left with a 36-week Liga – the title, the UEFA positions and relegation could all become formalized by late on Sunday night.
Thus you should imagine that everyone involved has that extra incentive to give everything they’ve got – one last push.
Barcelona‘s players and fans should probably form a guard of honour and applaud David Moyes and his Txuri-Urdin footballers on to the Camp Nou pitch. It was that defeat at the Anoeta in January, a miserable low-point in terms of performance, man-management and player-coach relationships, which utterly galvanized Barça. They trudged off that wet Basque playing surface looking not just beaten but dispirited, disjointed and lacking in spirit.
From that day to this, they’ve won 16 of 18 Liga games (one defeat, one draw), six out of six cup games and five out of five Champions League games.
Twenty nine matches, twenty seven wins, and 94 goals since January.
And there’s the rub – The last time Barcelona lost or drew against La Real at the Camp Nou Johan Cruyff was in charge and it was mid-1995.
In the intervening twenty years, there have been some hammerings – 4-1 and 5-1 in the last two visits for example.
Moyes’ team is now fitter, plays with a clearer pattern and young talent has been promoted, to good effect. But they’ve not really conquered their affliction of going on the road and representing the character and thorny stubbornness which they can display at the Anoeta. That might cost them here.
A complicating factor is that Barcelona left a lot out on the pitch on Wednesday against Bayern - a lot of energy spent and a huge amount of adrenaline burned off. Luis Enrique‘s men increasingly look like champions, whether by default or merit, but they’ve not been invulnerable here. The 0-1 defeats to Celta and Málaga testify to that.
There’ll be some squad rotation – you’d expect some from Xavi, Sergi Roberto, Rafinha, Pedro and Bartra to get starts, and some from Suárez/Neymar, Busquets, Iniesta, and Rakitic to get a rest.
Might this be Xavi’s last game at the Camp Nou? Yes. He’ll leave this summer and the strike means it’s feasible that this is the Camp Nou’s last match for three months. It’s also feasible that if Barcelona drop points it’s ‘adios’ la Liga. If Madrid were to win later on and La Liga to be abandoned at J36 then that, as they say, would be that.
Moyes loses Zurutuza to injury and might well start with: Rulli Zaldua, Ansotegi/Mikel, Iñigo Martínez, De la Bella; Markel, Rubén Pardo, Granero; Xabi Prieto, Canales, Vela. Mikel González has had his suspension overturned and is available
Pre-strike this game was intriguing enough. But now!
Valencia‘s road-form is just about their only minus of the season. They’ve already registered 23 points more than last term, scoring 13 more than 2013/14. Away from home, however, there has been a slight inconsistency – sometimes lacking in strategic discipline, which would underline their lack of a top class striker to bring goals and points when everything seems against you.
Bluntly, the addition of Álvaro Negredo hasn’t yet been a success. Having said all that, that weaker Valencia side last season not only drew at the Bernabéu, but they cost Madrid the title.
More? Valencia have managed three consecutive draws at the Bernabéu so who could totally disregard them on a weekend when Los Blancos have much, much more to think about in midweek – they need a ‘remontada’ (fightback) against Juve.
To the next complicating factor. IF Barcelona have drawn or lost to David Moyes’ Real Sociedad then this will be an absolute and utter baying mob of a stadium. In that hypothesis, victory would stand a decent chance of winning Los Blancos the title, either by a point or on the head-to-head rule.
Valencia, if the league ended this weekend [something which nobody can guarantee], would automatically finish fourth as they have a three point lead over Sevilla and the ‘head-to-head’ advantage.
Their most reliable striker, Paco Alcácer, reckons: “We are quite clear that we’re going to Madrid to win and that we can do it. “We’re not going to throw away the great work of the season, and getting into the Champions League is our only objective”.
Diego Alves seems fit having suffered from thigh muscle problems a few days ago, Enzo Pérez is likely to return – likely with Javi Fuego, Dani Parejo and Sofiane Feghouli in midfield. Rodrigo Moreno is suspended so Piatti and Alcácer up front looks most likely.
Carlo Ancelotti needs to figure out who to rest, who needs more game time. Bale, anonymous in Turin, desperately needs a game like this to earn some match sharpness. Benzema might make this test in order to warm up for the visit of Juve, but the Italian needs to figure out whether this is just a shade too early for a striker who could be vital on Wednesday?
It is time for Chicharito to be restored, and score. Ronaldo looks in the groove. Parejo scored one and made one here last year and has had a stellar season in terms of goals – so he, Otamendi or Piatti might stand an investment.
This fixture presents one of the most remarkable records in Spanish football. Levante, a traditionally a struggling, under-resourced, backs-to-the-wall kind of club have won five, drawn one and only lost three of their Primera Division home meetings with Atlético – Spain’s third force. Three of the last results between these sides at the Ciutat de Valencia stadium have been 2-0 to Los Granotes.
The last one was a year ago, and Atleti’s legion of fans broiled in the heat without a thing to shout about as Levante hustled and hassled the champions-elect out of their mojo. David Barral (worth a shout this weekend), scored in that game, and has twelve in 31 games this season – his best pro-rata return ever.
Levante’s threat is lessened thanks to the suspension of Victor and Simão. The former should have been out last week and available this one but the May Day holiday meant that the disciplinary committee didn’t sit in time and the five-booking suspension is held over for this visit of the champions. For Cholo Simeone‘s mob, Diego Godín is also banned. Other than that, he’s got a wide choice of players and they’ve all had a clear week to recuperate mentally and physically.
‘Marca’ headlined this ‘The worst stadium at the worst possible time’. Only at the Camp Nou has Cholo a worse record in his three years in charge, compared to a draw and two defeats at Levante.
From training it looks a little like Simeone will try to end his impoverished record here via: Oblak, Juanfran, Giménez, Miranda, Siqueira, Arda, Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Griezmann and Mandzukic. Fernando Torres and Raúl García benched.
One thing that might be worth taking into account is that Atlético feel dreadfully cheated of a win after last week’s officiating in the 0-0 draw at home to Athletic. They had at least two legitimate goals chalked-off, perhaps a penalty too, and in the dressing room afterwards the squad’s fitness coach, Óscar Ortega, absolutely tore strips off the Atlético President, Enrique Cerezo, for not ‘pressurizing’ referees and the Spanish FA in public sufficiently – ie so that Atleti get more favourable treatment.
You might reckon that this frustration, bottled up for a week, might be taken out on Levante. Griezmann, Siqueira and/or Arda to put an end to Atleti’s horrible run without a win here since 2007.
A bit of a ‘ghost’ contest this one.
Between the two clubs there will be at least 11 important players missing via suspension or injury. The key nine are Nolito, Álex López, Hugo Mallo, Cabral and Larrivey suspended for Celta plus Reyes, Tremoulinas and Mbia for Sevilla. The first two are suspended, and Mbia suffered a head injury in the brilliant 3-0 win over Fiorentina in the Europa League semi final on Thursday.
The Galicians have three wins and a draw in the last five of these fixtures at the Balaídes. There’s a hint of doubt though, in the fact that Celta are in the bottom half of the table for home form. That’s depite the fact that they recently gave both Barcelona and Real Madrid barnstorming games (1-1 and 2-4) and they beat Atlético [2-0] not that long ago.
Add to that that Sevilla are top five in terms of away form and you might be tempted to back Unai Emery‘s side who look like they may defend their Europa League title and land a Champions League place that way.
Who Emery rests before the trip to Florence this week is a key – and hard to discern. Time for Gameiro, Iborra and Denis Suárez to get starts. Aleix Vidal, is in the form of his life – just beyond good in the last few games.
Maybe look at Vidal, Vitolo, Gameiro and Iborra for threat. Charles, Santi Mina and Orellana need to step up for the light blues.
Carlos Velasco Carbello is the referee, and for those who count cards and like to punt on that market, he booked nine and sent one off the last time these two sides met in Sevilla last January.
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“This is a banana-skin game,” Carlo Ancelotti said on Friday morning. With a straight face.
Well, frankly, you’re as likely to hear the Banana-splits theme played by the London Philharmonic Orchestra, conducted by Mr and Mrs Harmonic’s son Phil before you are likely to see Eibar winning at the Bernabéu.
Yes, yes. It’s not hard to understand Carlito’s intention. The European champions were duffed-up in the first half at Rayo Vallecano in midweek, they have no margin of error here and they’ll be without the excellence of James Rodríguez, the order of Toni Kroos and the returning goal-power of Gareth Bale.
So, fine, avoiding complacency by warning about the threat Eibar carry, that’s okay.
But even though Eibar’s coach Gaizka Garitano was singing from the same song-sheet [‘One banana, two banana, three banana four…tra la la, tra la, la, la…] when he said this week: “People think we are dead and buried but there’s a lot of life left in us”, this isn’t the weekend they can be permitted to show that’s true.
Prior to beating Málaga on Tuesday the Basques had not won since January 10, at home to Getafe, and failed to scored in seven of 10 games. That tells a story. It may not be the greatest story ever told, but Easter’s past now.
What’s true, and has been for a couple of weeks, is that Garitano’s team is playing better. Making chances, making it worth watching them because they are pleasing to the eye.
Next best? Saúl Berjon – nice wee player.
Los Blancos aren’t yet on full ramming speed, will miss James in particular because he’s added cutting edge and verticality in their play since returning.
Also, they have the Madrid derby in the Champions League on Tuesday. However what showed in midweek is that if their silk glove is a bit tatty, their iron fist is in punching mode.
Watching them react, so powerfully, to the nonsense of Ronaldo being denied the most blatant of penalties at Rayo indicated that there is ferocity of spirit and an intent to win this title.
They should have a far harder afternoon than a week ago when hitting nine against Granada but they can be backed.
“We don’t care if Ronaldo’s had his yellow card rescinded and is free to play,” said the Eibar President Friday afternoon. Wrong!
Back CR7 to score, again, back Benzema, back Isco and, have a flutter on Ramos.
It’s just not practical to take a disparaging tone of voice when speaking about a match at La Rosaleda – even after Javi Gracia’s team lost a bit of steam in recent weeks.
Málaga can play, have individuals who’ll produce clever moments, the crowd is usually numerous and boisterous. [This match is sold-out]. So it’s a trap for the unwary.
However, the instinct to back an upset here, which would have been tempting during the earlier part of Atleti’s bumpy 2015, has diminished a bit.
Diego Simeone’s team went through a spell where they looked leg-weary, psychologically bruised and just a tad vulnerable to energy, organisation and ambition. All of which Málaga have been capable of providing this term.
But Los Rojiblancos can evidently see the finishing tape now, clearly.
It’s like the combined effect of knowing that their guru, their Pied Piper [What do you mean ‘who’? Simeon,e of course!] has renewed his contract and will stay next season plus the knowledge that they are edging towards guaranteeing Champions League football while playing the quarter final of that competition against a team they’ve beaten four times since August has injected pure adrenaline in their veins.
Keeper Miguel Ángel Moyá is back from injury, so is Diego Godín, while Juanfran has served his suspension. Mandzukic and Raúl García are both still injured.
The negative about the home side is that their three recent defeats, and a draw in the last five games, have been against sides lower than them in the table – Granada, Rayo, Eibar and Real Sociedad.
On the positive side, Gracia was without two significant players when losing at Eibar in midweek – Samu Castilejo and Sergio Sánchez. They return while Sergi Darder, a doubt, makes the squad. Gracia will choose from: Kameni, Amrabat, Weligton, Samuel, Javi Guerra, Ricardo Horta, Juanmi, Tissone, Ochoa, Recio, Angeleri, Duda, Rosales, Boka, Sergio Sánchez, Miguel Torres, Samu Castillejo, Sergi Darder.
Back to bananas, there’s a slip-up threat here but back Atleti, just.
NB: Fernando Torres has five in eight against Málaga; Griezmann has three in eight.
NB1: Don’t look for a goal feast. In only FOUR of the last 11 meetings between these two clubs have both teams scored. Prior to this season the last three games produced only three goals
NB2: have a think about Godín anytime. Each of Málaga’s last two defeats have been 0-1 to back-post headers.
In life, which do you believe in more? The immovable object or the irresistible force?
Sevilla haven’t lost at home for over a year – since their city neighbours Betis won at the Nervión.
Thirty-one matches in League, Europe and Cup. Immovable.
Barça, in contrast, have won 10 straight away matches, no mean feat, since losing at the Anoeta in their first match of 2015. Irresistible?
The league-leaders carry some baggage to Andalusia – and not just the shadow of Wednesday’s Champions League quarter final in Paris.
Good though he was against Almería during the week, Messi still appears to be protecting his right outstep where he’s felt pain since the Manchester City game at the Camp Nou.
Neymar, dropped in midweek, is out of form and has been for weeks.
Contract talks with Dani Alves have broken down and his agent [also his ex-wife] stated that some of his defensive lapses recently owe to his mental state caused by uncertainty over his playing future. [He’s out of contract in June]. Way to impress the coach Mrs A.
But we have to take into account the fact that not since Alves scored the winner for Sevilla in this fixture back in 2007 have Barça lost here.
Seven wins and two draws in their last nine visits.
Unai Emery just doesn’t have a happy record against them either – wherever he’s been he’s found it super-hard, either in adversity or when on top in a game, to emerge with a win.
Bacca, having been rested at Levante, will start and is the best bet. Sevilla are pretty interesting aerially and while Barcelona have improved, radically, when defending set-plays they are by no means invulnerable. Mbia is fit and loves to score a header.
Barcelona are not on high form but have a really grim determination about them these days. For that, for Messi and for their eight year record in Sevilla they’ll start favourites.
But if you back a score draw you’ll not be alone.
Football is remarkable. Valencia have beaten both the Spanish and European champions this season, have a new, wealthy owner, brim with good new players, the crowds have been huge and vibrant … but they’ll enter the city derby with nerves.
Levante have been fighting relegation all season, are on their second coach this term and lost at home in midweek but there’s a genuine sense that they are both robust and capable of staying up.
But, Frank Carson-stylee, there’s more.
Levante, pretty remarkably, have three wins and two draws in their last six Valencia derbies. Given the relative resources and squad-calibre that’s a standout achievement.
One of the defeats of Valencia was this season – one of only two wins in their first ten home matches. Some kids.
And more. Nuno Espirito Santo may have been looking for the gypsy who’s thrown a curse or whoever on his staff broke a couple of mirrors.
Last week they played a weakened Villarreal side, one which went on to be pumped 0-3 at home by Espanyol in their next match, but Los Che squandered chances, played without enough zest and dropped two points. Major chance missed
Then, away at Athletic, they had Otamendi wrongly sent off and, winning 0-1, dropped two more points in the final seconds when Aduriz scored from a blatantly offside position.
Suddenly they are not only not third but they’ve gifted Atleti a three point lead.
Okay, Levante like facing Valencia. They absolutely require points for survival but Los Che have just three more home games after this one and, by hook or by crook, they simply have to win. On balance, just, it’s worth backing them to do that.
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This looks like the shape of things to come – short and long term.
Mario Mandzukic, big old lump of ‘mala leche’ [meanness], may be Atleti’s top scorer this season with 20 all comps but to manage he’s also about as much fun as stubbing your toe.
ICYMI: Mario Mandzukic on verge of Atléti exit after Simeone bust-up. (Story: @alexburns1088) http://t.co/sg6Swl3IY8 pic.twitter.com/EfiMIrtAFZ
— The Continental Zone (@ContinentalZone) March 11, 2015
Pep Guardiola couldn’t get him out of Bayern sharply enough and now the buzz from Atleti’s training ground is that Cholo Simeone doesn’t like the cut of the Croat’s jib.
Remember that fad for ‘who would win in a fight, a tiger or a lion?’ ~ Well let’s go all hypothetical here too.
It’s Friday night, drinks have been consumed, it’s a dark alley and an ill-judged remark has been passed. Who’d win, Mario or El Cholo?
Answers on a postcard to Power tower but if those answers don’t say ‘Duh! El Cholo!’ then they’ll be put in the recycling bin.
Ok, back in character.
Atleti have been eight stone weaklings away from home in 2015 – something you might want to factor in here.
Since January they’ve played Barcelona, Barcelona [Copa], Eibar Celta, Bayer Leverkusen and Sevilla. Six away matches, three competitions, one win. The results in sequence have been 1-3, 0-1, 3-0, 0-2, 0-1 and 0-0. Four defeats, one draw, one win and four goals scored in 540 minutes.
Not great.
So dopy old Mario comes on last week in the pub-brawl masquerading as a football match, 1-1 at home to Valencia, gets booked and is suspended. [Siqueira too] Likely that means he’ll not start v Leverkusen in midweek. Massive game that. And if he’s not sold in the summer I’d be a little surprised. Roger Moore 007 eyebrow raised-level of surprise.
So Antoine Griezmann, back him any time, returns after his own suspension and the question is whether it’ll be as sole striker or with Torres at no9 and Griezmann supporting him. This looks the most likely XI – Moyá, Juanfran, Miranda, Godín, Gámez, Raúl García, Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Griezmann, Torres.
NB Torres has four in eight v Espanyol, but only one win in those matches.
What of Espanyol? Their best player, Sergio Garcia, was in court on Friday facing questions about whether he has been associated with fixing matches. They went out of the Cup, limply, at home to Athletic Bilbao and they have lost nine of sixteen matches in 2015.
Depite their last five home games v Atleti producing three wins a draw and a defeat they are under threat here. Were it not for Atleti’s misfiring away from home you’d say this was a banker win for the champions. Thus a draw is totally feasible. But fortune favours the brave – there’s a risk but why not Atleti to win, Griezmann and Torres to score?
Other than Barça fans and supporters of the teams in the relegation battle you’d guess that the rest of the world is dreaming of the mother, father, next-door neighbour and second cousin’s girlfriend of all shocks here. Eibar is a pocket-sized community – 27,000 inhabitants, a stadium that holds just over 5000. They are in the top division for the first time ever and needed to pass the hat round to have the necessary finances to take up their place in La Primera last summer.
Having thrilled with their performances in the first half of the season, easily the top performing Basque club pre-Christmas, defeat could put them in the bottom three this weekend. They are eight without a win, seven of which are consecutive defeats. Little wonder their coach, Gaizka Garitano, says:
“We are playing for more than Barcelona. “Another league here or there won’t change their history. “While not only is this a match our fans will still be talking about in ten years time, we are playing for the future of the club. “This isn’t a game to have fun in, nor one to plan which jersey you’re going to try and swap. “We need to compete and to ensure that the best team in the world doesn’t get to do what it is capable of doing – scoring five goals in five minutes.”
The difficulty is that while as defender Saúl Berjón says, “nobody has turned us over yet” – they can neither score freely nor keep a clean sheet. Messi, alone, has scored more Liga goals this season than the entire Eibar squad. 
Eibar’s Ipurua pitch used to be a refugee from 1974, muddy, rutted and not for artistes. They re-laid it and, it seems to me, football-playing teams now quite enjoy an afternoon at Eibar.
An advantage lost.
Talking of which, there’s a lot of speculation that the sale of Raúl Albentosa to Derby marks Eibar’s decline. Not so, their record of two goals in their last seven league matches holds the key.
Barça? Well if there were ideal conditions for a shock mebbe they are on show here. Both full backs, Alves and Alba, are out suspended. Busquets is out injured. His natural replacement, Javi Mascherano, is one booking away from missing next weekend’s Clásico. So is Mathieu. Barça have also had two and a half days off this week, which Neymar used to go to Brazil for his sister’s birthday, and the last time they had that much free time they lost at home to Málaga. 
But they’ve clawed their way back to the top of the table and have too much to lose for this to be a game that slips away.
Luis Suárez is made for a game like this, and he’s hit eight in his last seven matches. Messi is Messi. I know it’s against the odds but the adventurous might want to look at Piqué to add yet another to his already record goal-scoring season.
Eibar give away headed chances [a ginormous amount of them in their last home game] the Catalan loves a goal and the Basque’s also concede lots of free kicks and corners.
Might be feisty, not without threat for Barça but 1-3.
The Europa League holders have played 12 games [1080 minutes] more than Elche this season, 42:30, the latest of which was the remarkable 3-1 win at Villarreal on Thursday night. That means that in their last seven matches they’ve won five, drawn won and scored three+ goals on five occasions.
Five star stuff.
Add in the fact that it was a year yesterday that Sevilla last lost at home in any competition and the size of Elche’s task is clearer. As a handy guide – of the 16 goals Sevilla have scored in those last seven games Vitolo has 5, Gameiro 3, Bacca 2 and there have been a smattering of own goals and penalties for both sides. Bacca was rested on Thursday and thus should start, Iborra who also got two in the last seven and two against Elche the last time this fixture was played, is suspended. Vitolo took a knock on his knee at Villarreal, couldn’t train Friday and is a doubt. Elche, for their part, are rather more troubled.
The league is investigating €2.5m missing from the club coffers around about the time that they needed a result against Málaga in order to avoid relegation. Two of their ‘ultra’ supporters were jailed for violent behaviour this week. Aarón Ñíguez is carrying a knock, centre half Sergio Pelegrín is definitely out and Adrián González is suspended.
Back Bacca, back Mbia, watch out for a post-Europe slump, and if you fancy Elche to shock back Jonathas because he’s their motor for goals and assist. But even if Sevilla need to come from behind, they should have sufficient to take three points here. 2-1
Carlo Ancelotti is one laid-back dude. So laid-back that he’s had to defend himself recently: “I won three Champions League’s with this ‘easy-going’ coaching style” he drawled the other day.
And with that nature, one of his sayings is: “Even after the worst defeat, the sun will still rise the next morning”
So, given the appalling week Madrid have had, this needs to be Dawn and the darkest hour needs to have been the 4-3 home defeat to Schalke. Either that or President Florentino trying to put out the fire with gasoline by not only giving the dreaded vote of confidence but then refusing to guarantee that it applied beyond May.
Take the injuries into account, take loss of form into account, take accumulated mental and physical tiredness into account – fine. But, right now, Madrid’s major problem is that their collective confidence is fractured. 
The strikers don’t believe the defence, particularly Iker, will keep the ball out and the defence don’t believe the strikers are working hard enough. There’s more finger-pointing than at a proctologists’ training course.
The midfield? They are like Scotty in the original Starship Enterprise – beetling about looking busy and shouting ‘We cannae take any more Cap’n’ A statistical representation of that fact is that Madrid ran TEN kilometres less than Schalke in that defeat. Horrifying. So – how to call this one? First off it’s likely that Luka Modric will start. Vital to have him back, but impossible for him to hit maximum performance, or max-stamina, immediately after four months out. Not only is Kroos knackered, he and Isco are each one booking away from missing the match at the Camp Nou next Sunday. Hard to see them both starting.
After 144 days, Luka Modric has officially returned. pic.twitter.com/LpIlRBuQWa — SocialRMadrid (@SocialRMadrid) March 10, 2015
Casillas had an absolute stinker against Schalke and Keylor playing against his old club can’t be ruled out. But the emphasis lies on whether Ronaldo’s form is returning, two goals in midweek, or it’s time to drop either Benzema or Bale so that Jesé [worth an anytime bet] can start. Ronaldo’s the good bet [NINE in his last six against Levante] but Ramos [anytime] should also return and, boy, he loves a goal to save the team when they are in shtuck.
Levante, it has to be noted, have only ever won once at the Bernabéu, tend to concede barrowloads and have the worst goals-against record in the division.
Madrid may feel they only need to stop David Barral [anytime] – since he signed for the club he’s scored twelve goals and that’s been good enough for eleven victories.
Given that you won’t win money from Paddy on whether Madrid play either convincingly or attractively this weekend, only the result, back them to produce the goals to win by a couple.
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Graham’s quick-firebets:
WIN ACCA:
Barcelona, Valencia, Atletico, Real Sociedad and Real Madrid all to win – 15/2
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The standard expression is: A week is a long time in politics.
This weekend should prove that five months is an eternity in football. There was a shocking, shocking stat last time Barça went up against these lads from the Costa Del Sol capital – at La Rosaleda late last September. Luis Enrique’s team not only drew 0-0 but didn’t have a shot on target.
That was then, this is now. Back in September coach Javi Gracia could start with Camacho in midfield and Amrabat up front. Both suspended now from the team which has 66 bookings and five red cards in their 24 League matches. They’ll be missed.
Now Suárez, unavailable in September, is a major force for good in Barça’s ‘Goals For’ column – both those he tucks away and, more impressively still, those he either creates directly via an assist or via the tremendous job he does of taking players away from Messi and Neymar.
@leomessi & @luissuarez9 #igersFCB #FCBarcelona
Barcelona have scored 56 times in the subsequent 18 games, are Europe’s form side, bar none, and tend to thump Málaga at the Camp Nou. Not since Louis Van Gaal was the manager in late 1999 the current manager, Luis Enrique, only lasted 61 minutes and previous manager Pep Guardiola only managed 69 minutes have Málaga won at Barcelona. The intervening years are littered with four, five and six goal defeats, just twice has their been only a single goal margin.
Gracia says: “We’ll have to be very, very, very good to take a point but we’ll attack and counter-attack when we can”
So, once again, we probably aren’t debating the result (is my guess) – just its margin.
The visitors’ form has fallen off a cliff. One win in seven league matches since just before Christmas.
It should be a slaughter. But will it?
Take two things into account. Luis Enrique might ‘protect’ Neymar before the City game and Carlos Kameni just loves to thwart Barcelona. The Cameroon keeper has played this lot more times than any other team since arriving in Spanish football and not only won at the Camp Nou with Espanyol he has three 0-0 draws against Barça for Espanyol and Málaga.
Maybe, just maybe, Kameni has one of ‘those’ days, Barcelona hold something in reserve for Lancashire and the win margin is lower than it should be?
Messi has fourteen goals in his last ten matches, 12 in 14 against Málaga over the last ten years. For value have a look at Pedro, Rafinha and Rakitic again – although they are outsiders compared to the Neymar-Messi-Suárez trident which is functioning so well. In fact I spent part of Thursday interviewing a very happy, very confident Suárez. Great goal last week, another this I’d bet.
You’re probably all too young to remember it but there used to be a US comedy show called ‘Soap’ which, as you may be able to deduce, took the mickey right out of soap-operas. It’s where Billy Crystal made it big. The voiceover at the beginning used to detail who was related to whom, who was doing the dirty with whom, who hated whom, who secretly loved … ok, you get the picture.
The tagline used to be: ‘Confused? You won’t be after this episode of Soap!’ So it is with the sitcom: ‘Suspension!’ at Valencia.
André Gomes is back from suspension, while Enzo Pérez and Antonio Barragán are out because of it. The week before it was Nico Otamendi and Joao Cancelo suspended but now Cancelo will replace Barragán at right back … because he’s, you’ve got it, suspended.
And just to continue the ‘Confused…?’ theme who was it that burned great chunks out of the Cordoba training ground? It’s a mystery, honest it is. But someone took the time to ensure that the team won’t be able to use their training pitch for a long, long time. Unless they pay local experts to renovate it…
Djukic’s team have been training in the stadium meaning the playing surface won’t be all that.
Bad news for the locals – Fede Cartabia, dashing winger and their best player I’d say, is on loan from Valencia so the ‘Clause of Fear’ as it’s called here kicks in. ‘No play!’ say Valencia.
Nuno has had los Che practising shooting all week so you’re obviously guaranteed that it’ll be a header that wins this [Negredo] but Parejo is hitting the net for fun and strikes from distance, Feghouli should start and love a long range effort as does the returning Gomes who’s no longer… suspended.
Away win, HAS to be for a Valencia trying to learn how to win on the road in order to reach the Champions league.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Right? A safety pin through the nostril is a heavenly look for one guy, cashmere sweater and cravat for the next. Thus: Luis Enrique is obsessed, OBSESSED I tell you, by secrecy over training and team selection at Barcelona.
On the other hand Diego Simeone, similarly intense as a guy and a manager, practically sold state secrets by voluntarily naming Atlético’s starting XI for this Saturday night game early on Friday afternoon! It is:
Moyá; Juanfran, Godín, Miranda, Siqueira; Saúl, Tiago, Gabi, Arda; Griezmann, Mandzukic
As he was doing it I swear I could hear Lucho Enrique shrieking ‘are you flaming mad you idiot?!!!’ in horror. This has the makings of a good game. Juan Ignacio Martinez, know to everyone as JIM, is a real student of Rafa Benitez, gets his teams organised and tough to break down and he’s got a couple of really lively and threatening players in Thievy [who’s not the soundest temperament-wise] and Hemed [worth an ‘any-time’ punt] up front.
Atleti were simply posted missing last week but as Simeone pointed out they are a totally different side at home, in front of their rabidly supportive fans, and with the elegant Arda Turan in the side.
Unless Simeone’s team get ahead promptly there’s the possibility of a hangover from last week’d defeat to Celta – but with Arda back, Tiago fit again and no experimental tactical nonsense like the coach tried last week the Champions should punch their weight again.
Well now. David Moyes has a fan in Valencia owner Peter Lim and here’s a chance for the Scot to do the Singaporean a favour by defeating the fifth-placed side – Valencia’s main Champions League rivals.
La Real have been working hard this week. There have been a couple of double training sessions, the first of which prevented Moyes from going back to Lancashire and expert-analysing the Preston North End v Manchester United FA Cup tie on Monday night.
What La Real did NOT have was a testing and draining Europa League tie on Thursday night followed by the long trip up north from Andalusia to the Basque Country and then a Sunday midday kick off. More, Sevilla’s Europa League tie with Borussia Moenchengladbach is now delicately balanced at 1-0 and the defending champions prize retaining the trophy very, very highly. Second leg next week – could some of Unai Emery’s men have the match in Germany as a higher priority than this one?
Perhaps, just perhaps, all this narrows the gap between the two sides slightly. Grzegorz Krychowiak, a titan for Sevilla in recent weeks, is suspended for his red card last week. Iborra might be worth looking at for a goal – he’s got himself in a cartload of scoring positions over the last few games.
So, make your own careful judgments but with Canales, Chory Prieto, Granero and Agirretxe all looking in form there’s a hint that La Real could take advantage of the situation and finally notch a win [there’s only been one of them since beating Barcelona on January 4]. IF you back them and they are ahead with ten minutes left mebbe Cash Out, there’s a long history of La Real letting a result slip away in the late stages of games this season.
‘I’d like a piece of their crisis!’ was the tone of the Elche coach’s press conference before this match.
Asked, legitimately enough, whether this was the best time of the season to be hosting Madrid, Fran Escribá was invited to move away from the wall but didn’t want to dance. Elche have put two wins together on the trot when, previously, they looked like they couldn’t even spell the word if you gave them w_n as a starter clue.
Los Blancos have lost three times this year and Carlo Ancelotti found himself, as per usual with this brutally demanding club, bang in the middle of a hurricane of doubts and criticism. But his rival this Sunday pointed out:
“They’ve one foot in the Champions League quarter final where they are defending champions, they are still league leaders and they just became World Club champions. That’s a very ‘Real Madrid’ kind of crisis”
Escribá looks like a talent. His “dream” is to go back and manage Atlético on his own [where he was assistant to Quique Sanchez Flores], so this is something of a job audition for the future. “It’s a good moment to face Madrid firstly because of how we are playing, with confidence. “Two months ago it’s possible that the players and people around the club might have said that an ‘honourable defeat’ was acceptable against Madrid. “Now my players feel strong – capable of winning”
Nice little atmosphere brewing – Elche are the ninth-best supported club in La Liga this season. Madrid will need to be up for it. If you back ‘shocks’ look at their hustle-bustle striker Jonathas and their dancing-feet winger Garry Rodrigues. Me? I think Madrid aren’t near their best yet but they are shaking off their lethargy and they won here last season in the 90th minute (1-2) thanks to Ronaldo. Something similar this time – Ronaldo and mebbe Isco? Ps: think there’s a Bale goal coming because he’s begun to work a good deal harder.
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Joaquin Caparrós is generally a manager who’ll keep a team in a league position above expectations, who isn’t shy about using youth team products and whose work methods are demanding enough that, often, the coaches who come after him at a given club can benefit greatly from a properly-run and motivated environment.
However, if he’s the guy you are looking for to regularly giant-kill Madrid or Barcelona then probably better look elsewhere.
Even at Sevilla and Athletic in eras when, arguably, they might have taken more scalps Madrid would regularly put four or give past his sides and only lose once in a blue moon.
It is sad to say but the impression has grown, over the seasons, that he lacks belief in his own (or his squad’s) capacity to knock over the big guys. Like he’s a little lost in admiration.
Not an impression diminished yesterday when he admitted: “The problem is that Madrid arrive at the top of their form and they are impressive. They’ve so many ways to beat you – via all-out attack, counter-attack, strategic tactics, set plays or individual brilliance. All I ask is that we don’t let them walk all over us.”
You do the arithmetic. Rested players like Ronaldo, Kroos, Modric Iker, Pepe and Sergio Ramos all return and there’s little to suggest they won’t return from Andalucia with three points and, likely, three more goals. With Liverpool on the horizon you can bet Ancelotti will use all three subs and Chicharito’s goals-to-minutes ratio is very good.
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Los de Córdoba got a point last week, the equaliser handled into the Real Sociedad net by Newcastle flop Xisco. The goal came with three minutes left and it marked new coach Miroslav Djukic’s debut in charge after succeeding the dreadfully treated Albert Ferrer.
You could cook up an idea that this was a breakthrough moment, if you really, really tried. But the moment will be broken this weekend.
Not only are Córdoba away to the Spanish champions, they catch Atleti in that ‘bear with sore paw’ mood. The Spanish league awards were announced about 12 hours before the Ballon D’Or long lists and los Colchoneros were not only badly ignored, they were treated humiliatingly. Thibaut Courtois, Diego Godin, Miranda, Filipe Luis, Koke, Gabi, Diego Costa – were all completely ignored in the domestic awards and only Courtois, Costa and Diego Simeone are on the FIFA long-lists.
Bet your bottom dollar the ‘we’ll show all of them’ mentality has been stoked up to ramming speed over the last couple of days.
Djukic likes his team to defend as a block, he’s an intense coach in the very same style as Simeone. But Atleti are beginning to find their tempo, Antoine Griezmann has the monkey off his back via a goal last week, both Godin and Miranda remain good set-piece bets to score and the champions should put Cordoba firmly in place.
Atletico Madrid 1/5, Cordoba 12/1, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile
The last time Celta won away to Barcelona it was two months before the attack on Pearl Harbour, the US hadn’t entered World War II and the Camp Nou was 16 years away from hosting its first match.
Not all that encouraging if you are thinking of putting all your piggy bank savings on the Galicians to inflict only Barca’s second league defeat of the season.
But then there’s the ‘Football, bloody hell!’ factor (© Alex Ferguson)
Banana skins should be yellow-ish, not sky blue like the Celta jerseys – yet perhaps that’s precisely what Celta represent if there are any ‘we’re feeling sorry for ourselves’ feelings left over on the good ship Barcelona after the Clasico mauling.
For starters, this is the club Luis Enrique coached to 9th place last season before answering the calll ‘home’. How traditional it would be for Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo to inspire his squad with: ‘HE thinks he’s too good for you all… YOUR work got him to the Camp Nou and a big fat salary. ‘And he didn’t take any of you with him!! ‘Well, we’ll show that git!!’
It’s the stuff of a thousand team talks. But occasionally it works.
For those who look for ‘signs’ before a shock Barcelona’s apocalyptic horseman in that scenario would be Nolito (4/1 anytime). Raised and trained at the Camp Nou, always promising but almost never given a chance, the striker has been one of those glorious late bloomers.
After joining Benfica he found his goal boots. Now at Celta it was under Luis Enrique that he kicked on again.
“We won’t change our style which is to pressure high up the pitch, to try to ‘own’ possession and to attack,” Berizzo promises. “Try to defend at the Camp Nou and the game can feel like it’s eternal.”
No Iniesta for Barcelona, injured, but perhaps the up-side is Luis Suárez’ Camp Nou competitive debut. His stats currently read: two goals, two goal assists in his three matches for his new club. What odds on him hitting the net just to spice up his already extraordinary story?
Meanwhile, Neymar (above) has 11 goals in 11 starts this season – no reason he shouldn’t continue that run. But a risky, nerve-testing match for Barcelona should they be at anything less than their best against Toto’s team.
Barcelona 1/8, Celta Vigo 20/1, Draw 7/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile
Speaking of the Ballon D’Or … surely the least excusable omission from the managerial long list, particularly as Jose Mourinho is there after a fallow year, is Sevilla boss Unai Emery.
Not only did he coach his side to the Europa League title last season, often playing thrillingly and eliminating 10 opponents to do so, if you take the Spanish league from February until this weekend then Emery’s Sevilla have won the highest points total (54) and currently sit equal top of the league – jointly with Barcelona.
What’s intriguing is that one of Sevilla’s few set backs, as they surged up the league last Spring, as they fell just short of making it into the Champions League was at Athletic.
The Basques were cooking by gas then and rather trampled on a tired Sevilla 3-1 with goals from Susaeta, Iker Muniain and the Manchester United-bound Ander Herrera.
Here’s the rub.
Now Athletic are coached by Ernesto Valverde whose job should be well safe. But it’s an election year in Bilbao and president Urrutia was down watching training on Thursday. He needs to present a winning ticket to the voters in the summer. Unai Emery is a Basque. And successful. IF his Sevilla were to win at the new San Mames then the pressure Valverde is under will increase and the thoughts that Emery could be tempted to come back to the Basque country would too.
Bacca, Aduriz, Gameiro and Iturraspe shape up as worthwhile ‘anytime’ scorers.
Athletic Bilbao 11/8, Sevilla 2/1, Draw 23/10 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile
Two sides who are huge fun to watch. For Villarreal, given that Castellón won’t come out to play (stuck in the 4th division) this is their local derby match. It’s also a meeting where there are goals – 40 in the last 12 times the Yellow Submarine have played Los Che.
Away wins are also rare, only two ever when Valencia travel the hour journey north, the last one seven years ago.
Valencia are buzzing. Takeover complete, Peter Lim finally in charge and Álvaro Negredo fully fit again. They scored all three goals from set plays last week, four of their last six came this way, and Pablo Piatti, their tiny Argentinian wide-boy, is on the form of his life. He’s created all four of them.
Perhaps given that Villarreal still are without their tremendous, powerful centre half, Mateo Musacchio, and Victor Ruiz won’t play becuase of the €300,000 clause which Valencia put in his contract when selling him to their neighbours, the set-play is something to have a tickle at.
Between them the two sides have 23 different scorers this season so one could fancy both teams to score and Valencia to take home no worse than a point.
Villareal 11/10, Valencia 12/5, Draw 12/5 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile
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The Premier League takes a break for the international action this week but here we look back on another weekend of high drama in England’s top flight.
1 – The real Manchester United finally showed up
After what has been a stuttering start to the season from Manchester United, finally we got to see Sir Alex Ferguson’s side’s true colours on Sunday as the 3-0 win at Newcastle proved they are very much title contenders again this term (United 2/1 – Premier League Outright).
St James’ Park remains one of the toughest places to get a result in the top flight but the way the Red Devils tore the Toon apart in the opening half hour should be an ominous warning to Manchester City, Chelsea and co.
They may have lost twice already this season but United appear back to their best and the rest of the league should be worried.
2 – But City click into gear too
If United’s start had been below-par then City, while unbeaten heading into Saturday’s home clash with Sunderland, could hardly be described as looking like defending champions in the early weeks of the season.
Draws at Stoke, Liverpool and at home to Arsenal, coupled with narrow victories over Southampton and Fulham, have led to questions marks over whether Roberto Mancini’s side can handle the pressure that comes with being champions (City 13/8f – Premier League Outright).
However, the utterly convincing 3-0 win over the Black Cats – that could easily have been five or six – suggests they too are now ready to prove the doubters wrong.
3 – Paul Lambert has plenty to do at Aston Villa
Paul Lambert’s arrival at Villa Park over the summer was greeted with cheer by the fans, but a thoroughly underwhelming start has left them scratching their heads.
Villa, who are 3/1 to be relegated, have won just one game so far and only really impressed in that victory over Swansea and in fits and starts since.
Sunday’s 2-0 defeat at Spurs was a meek surrender after they had held their own in the first 45 minutes while Lambert’s decision to again start proven goalscorer Darren Bent on the bench is baffling.
4 – Diving remains an issue to be tackled
Another weekend in the Premier League and another Monday is dominated by talk of how to combat players diving.
Luis Suarez (9/1 – Premier League Top Goalscorer) has drawn plenty of criticism from managers for it in the past and Stoke boss Tony Pulis described his going to ground in the second half of his side’s 0-0 draw at Anfield on Sunday as “embarrassing”.
The ‘dive’ was laughable with no Stoke player even making a challenge let alone contact with the Uruguayan, although the Liverpool striker will claim in his defence – if it is one – that he has had three legitimate spot-kicks turned down this season already by referees in earlier games.
Gareth Bale was also guilty of it in Spurs’ win over Aston Villa so is it now time for retrospective action to be brought in by a panel of experts assessing the weekend action?
5 – Hughes must pick up points soon
Despite receiving the backing of chairman Tony Fernandes this week, QPR boss Mark Hughes must now be under some degree of pressure at Loftus Road after another weekend defeat (QPR – 2/1 To Be Relegated).
Despite heavy summer investment, the Rs look like a side without a structure and, at times, appear totally disjointed. The arrival of so many new faces is bound to unsettle things and they will need time to gel.
There is talent in the ranks at Loftus Road and Fernandes will clearly stick by Hughes but wins are what is needed after the 3-2 reverse at West Brom on Saturday.
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