I won’t go into the deeply complicated reasons for the strike which has been announced for immediately after this weekend. But what you’ll have to take into account when you are betting on La Liga for week 36, is that most teams and most players will go into these games with the mentality that this may very well be La Liga’s final, and thus decisive, weekend.
There’s always the possibility of arbitration and conciliation but right now you’d call that an ‘odds-against’ proposition.
Barcelona v Real Sociedad, Saturday 5pm
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Various football rules and Spanish laws mean that if there’s no compromise thrashed out then we could very easily be left with a 36-week Liga – the title, the UEFA positions and relegation could all become formalized by late on Sunday night.
Thus you should imagine that everyone involved has that extra incentive to give everything they’ve got – one last push.
Barcelona‘s players and fans should probably form a guard of honour and applaud David Moyes and his Txuri-Urdin footballers on to the Camp Nou pitch. It was that defeat at the Anoeta in January, a miserable low-point in terms of performance, man-management and player-coach relationships, which utterly galvanized Barça. They trudged off that wet Basque playing surface looking not just beaten but dispirited, disjointed and lacking in spirit.
From that day to this, they’ve won 16 of 18 Liga games (one defeat, one draw), six out of six cup games and five out of five Champions League games.
Twenty nine matches, twenty seven wins, and 94 goals since January.
And there’s the rub – The last time Barcelona lost or drew against La Real at the Camp Nou Johan Cruyff was in charge and it was mid-1995.
In the intervening twenty years, there have been some hammerings – 4-1 and 5-1 in the last two visits for example.
Moyes’ team is now fitter, plays with a clearer pattern and young talent has been promoted, to good effect. But they’ve not really conquered their affliction of going on the road and representing the character and thorny stubbornness which they can display at the Anoeta. That might cost them here.
A complicating factor is that Barcelona left a lot out on the pitch on Wednesday against Bayern - a lot of energy spent and a huge amount of adrenaline burned off. Luis Enrique‘s men increasingly look like champions, whether by default or merit, but they’ve not been invulnerable here. The 0-1 defeats to Celta and Málaga testify to that.
Squad Rotation
There’ll be some squad rotation – you’d expect some from Xavi, Sergi Roberto, Rafinha, Pedro and Bartra to get starts, and some from Suárez/Neymar, Busquets, Iniesta, and Rakitic to get a rest.
Might this be Xavi’s last game at the Camp Nou? Yes. He’ll leave this summer and the strike means it’s feasible that this is the Camp Nou’s last match for three months. It’s also feasible that if Barcelona drop points it’s ‘adios’ la Liga. If Madrid were to win later on and La Liga to be abandoned at J36 then that, as they say, would be that.
Moyes loses Zurutuza to injury and might well start with: Rulli Zaldua, Ansotegi/Mikel, Iñigo Martínez, De la Bella; Markel, Rubén Pardo, Granero; Xabi Prieto, Canales, Vela. Mikel González has had his suspension overturned and is available
- Barcelona by three. Messi and Neymar to ensure it. Barcelona -2 is 4/9.
Real Madrid v Valencia, Saturday 7pm
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Pre-strike this game was intriguing enough. But now!
Valencia‘s road-form is just about their only minus of the season. They’ve already registered 23 points more than last term, scoring 13 more than 2013/14. Away from home, however, there has been a slight inconsistency – sometimes lacking in strategic discipline, which would underline their lack of a top class striker to bring goals and points when everything seems against you.
Bluntly, the addition of Álvaro Negredo hasn’t yet been a success. Having said all that, that weaker Valencia side last season not only drew at the Bernabéu, but they cost Madrid the title.
More? Valencia have managed three consecutive draws at the Bernabéu so who could totally disregard them on a weekend when Los Blancos have much, much more to think about in midweek – they need a ‘remontada’ (fightback) against Juve.
To the next complicating factor. IF Barcelona have drawn or lost to David Moyes’ Real Sociedad then this will be an absolute and utter baying mob of a stadium. In that hypothesis, victory would stand a decent chance of winning Los Blancos the title, either by a point or on the head-to-head rule.
Valencia, if the league ended this weekend [something which nobody can guarantee], would automatically finish fourth as they have a three point lead over Sevilla and the ‘head-to-head’ advantage.
Their most reliable striker, Paco Alcácer, reckons: “We are quite clear that we’re going to Madrid to win and that we can do it. “We’re not going to throw away the great work of the season, and getting into the Champions League is our only objective”.
Diego Alves seems fit having suffered from thigh muscle problems a few days ago, Enzo Pérez is likely to return – likely with Javi Fuego, Dani Parejo and Sofiane Feghouli in midfield. Rodrigo Moreno is suspended so Piatti and Alcácer up front looks most likely.
Carlo Ancelotti needs to figure out who to rest, who needs more game time. Bale, anonymous in Turin, desperately needs a game like this to earn some match sharpness. Benzema might make this test in order to warm up for the visit of Juve, but the Italian needs to figure out whether this is just a shade too early for a striker who could be vital on Wednesday?
It is time for Chicharito to be restored, and score. Ronaldo looks in the groove. Parejo scored one and made one here last year and has had a stellar season in terms of goals – so he, Otamendi or Piatti might stand an investment.
- Madrid to win by exactly one goal is 11/4
Levante v Atlético, Sunday 11am
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This fixture presents one of the most remarkable records in Spanish football. Levante, a traditionally a struggling, under-resourced, backs-to-the-wall kind of club have won five, drawn one and only lost three of their Primera Division home meetings with Atlético – Spain’s third force. Three of the last results between these sides at the Ciutat de Valencia stadium have been 2-0 to Los Granotes.
The last one was a year ago, and Atleti’s legion of fans broiled in the heat without a thing to shout about as Levante hustled and hassled the champions-elect out of their mojo. David Barral (worth a shout this weekend), scored in that game, and has twelve in 31 games this season – his best pro-rata return ever.
Levante’s threat is lessened thanks to the suspension of Victor and Simão. The former should have been out last week and available this one but the May Day holiday meant that the disciplinary committee didn’t sit in time and the five-booking suspension is held over for this visit of the champions. For Cholo Simeone‘s mob, Diego Godín is also banned. Other than that, he’s got a wide choice of players and they’ve all had a clear week to recuperate mentally and physically.
‘Marca’ headlined this ‘The worst stadium at the worst possible time’. Only at the Camp Nou has Cholo a worse record in his three years in charge, compared to a draw and two defeats at Levante.
From training it looks a little like Simeone will try to end his impoverished record here via: Oblak, Juanfran, Giménez, Miranda, Siqueira, Arda, Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Griezmann and Mandzukic. Fernando Torres and Raúl García benched.
One thing that might be worth taking into account is that Atlético feel dreadfully cheated of a win after last week’s officiating in the 0-0 draw at home to Athletic. They had at least two legitimate goals chalked-off, perhaps a penalty too, and in the dressing room afterwards the squad’s fitness coach, Óscar Ortega, absolutely tore strips off the Atlético President, Enrique Cerezo, for not ‘pressurizing’ referees and the Spanish FA in public sufficiently – i.e. so that Atleti get more favourable treatment.
You might reckon that this frustration, bottled up for a week, might be taken out on Levante. Griezmann, Siqueira and/or Arda to put an end to Atleti’s horrible run without a win here since 2007.
- Atletico to win is 1/2
Celta Vigo v Sevilla, Sunday 8pm
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A bit of a ‘ghost’ contest this one.
Between the two clubs there will be at least 11 important players missing via suspension or injury. The key nine are Nolito, Álex López, Hugo Mallo, Cabral and Larrivey suspended for Celta plus Reyes, Tremoulinas and Mbia for Sevilla. The first two are suspended, and Mbia suffered a head injury in the brilliant 3-0 win over Fiorentina in the Europa League semi final on Thursday.
The Galicians have three wins and a draw in the last five of these fixtures at the Balaídes. There’s a hint of doubt though, in the fact that Celta are in the bottom half of the table for home form. That’s depite the fact that they recently gave both Barcelona and Real Madrid barnstorming games (1-1 and 2-4) and they beat Atlético [2-0] not that long ago.
Add to that that Sevilla are top five in terms of away form and you might be tempted to back Unai Emery‘s side who look like they may defend their Europa League title and land a Champions League place that way.
Who Emery rests before the trip to Florence this week is a key – and hard to discern. Time for Gameiro, Iborra and Denis Suárez to get starts. Aleix Vidal, is in the form of his life – just beyond good in the last few games.
Maybe look at Vidal, Vitolo, Gameiro and Iborra for threat. Charles, Santi Mina and Orellana need to step up for the light blues.
Carlos Velasco Carbello is the referee, and for those who count cards and like to punt on that market, he booked nine and sent one off the last time these two sides met in Sevilla last January.
- Draw at 13/5
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