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Graham Hunter: What David Moyes has done at Real Sociedad this week and my 11/2 tip to shock the champions

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Atlético Madrid v Málaga, Saturday 3pm

This is the definition of an intriguing wee fixture carrying far more history, and ‘sizzle’ than is immediately apparent.

The reigning champions against a side which has been brutally asset-stripped since Manuel Pellegrini left.

No-brainer, right?

Hold your horses. Since Málaga drew at home to Barcelona in late September (preventing Messi and Co from getting a single effort on target and making it seem like Javi Gracia’s mob had about 15 players on the pitch) they’ve played six times and won five. Fifteen points via five back-to-back victories – one short of the club’s all-time record. Interestingly, too, the Malagueños have only won away to Atlético three times in history – but two of them have been in the last five visits (since Jan 2010).

  • In fact, in those last five matches at the Calderón, Málaga have two single-goal defeats (2-1 each time), two wins (0-2, 0-3) and last season’s 1-1 draw.

On which point, that draw should make this a grudge match for Diego Simeone’s lads. On the penultimate day of the season Málaga had nothing to play for, bar pride, but led 1-0 until relatively late and battled like it was for their lives. Barça drew at Elche that weekend so a win for Atlético would have meant the title and an ability to rest key players (particularly the injured Diego Costa) at the Camp Nou and get them fit and fresh for the Champions League final against Madrid which they failed to win by a handful of seconds before collapsing, exhausted, in extra time. NB the Spanish for revenge is ‘revancha’.

Nordin Amrabat, Málaga’s leading scorer (three) is out injured and although he’s not prolific I like Samuel Garcia as an anytime goalscorer at 11/2. Scored a brilliant goal at Atlético in that 1-1 draw last May, and two crackers in Málaga’s last four wins. P.S. Málaga’s last two away wins have cost the opposition coaches their jobs – Albert ‘Chapi’ Ferrer at Córdoba and Jagoba Arrasate at Real Sociedad. But if Paddy offers you odds on Diego Simeone to complete the hat-trick – politely refuse to invest your money, okay?

  • Latest match odds >

Eibar v Real Madrid, Saturday 5pm

Spanish football does many things well but has made a real botch-up of the Copa Del Rey. Cup ties (coming to a Sky Sports 5 midweek soon) are now home and away, ensuring that giant-killing is now as rare as finding a genuine, full-blooded, club-wielding, 15ft giant with a long beard and a stroppy attitude. So treasure this game. It’s as close to the magic of the FA Cup 3rd round as the Spanish game has.

The world’s best-known club, against one from a Basque town of 27,000 inhabitants. Played in a stadium which houses fewer than 6000 spectators, with several hundred watching from the terraces of tower blocks which surround the partially-open Ipurúa ground. This is Eibar’s first time in the top league in 74 years but they’ve played Madrid at home once before, in the Cup 10 years ago. A bonkers night which finished 1-1 but during which Iker Casillas had to excel.

The even better story, beyond the kitsch, is that Gaizka Garitano has got his side playing confidently, with great order and a dash of daring. The fact that Luka Modric is absent injured and Madrid’s central midfield needs re-jigging, will probably be better tested on bigger pitches than this. But elite coaches hate, just hate, that post International break threat of players having ‘relaxed’ and not yet being back in their club mindsets.

VULNERABILITY is the word which makes them lose sleep and snap irritably at the missus. Is this the moment to recommend that you back the total underdogs? I’m not certain Madrid (read Ronaldo) won’t cope. However if you wanted to favour Eibar then when they’ve had two weeks of planning, concentrated tactics and training, when Modric is out, when the game’s at Ipurúa and the referee has a record of Madrid only winning 17 of 31 games when he’s been in charge …. then there won’t be a better moment I’d venture.

If the improbable is to happen Eibar would need their ‘pichichi’ Mikel Arruabarrena to score but not only should Madrid bring home the bacon, I’m sure they’ll score no matter how the game goes. Thus to win the Basques, who play in ‘Barça’ colours, would need a special ‘jack-in-the-box- goal’. Who better than Catalan, ex Barça B Abraham who scores once in a blue moon but hit an absolute pearler at Atlético this season?

  • Latest match odds >

Barcelona v Sevilla, Saturday 7pm

I suggested a couple of weeks ago that Celta might win at the Camp Nou, and they did. When Barça failed to score that day it was the first time that had happened since Sevilla drew 0-0 there in October 2011.

That day the now pretty-much-forgotten Javi Varas seemed to have a personal grudge against Messi capped by saving his 90th min penalty.

Now it’s Unai Emery’s Sevilla who visit the Camp Nou and, like Celta, they have the pace, the technique, the attitude and the counter attack to win. Particularly following an international fortnight which can leave elite players sloppy and sluggish in its aftermath.

Perhaps the best reason to suggest that won’t happen this time is, again, the Messi/Sevilla goalkeeper situation. Emery (who’s never beaten Barça as a coach) suddenly has doubts about the hero of last season, Beto, and the keeper has looked gaffe-prone. Messi keeps missing chances which he’d normally bury but he’s still getting goals and assists thus when he re-calibrates by a few millimetres and overtakes the all-time La Liga scoring record (two goals to overtake Zarra) then you’d guess a splurge of hitting the net will follow such a pressure release. More, Luis Suárez utterly changed Barcelona two weeks ago when they played poorly at Almeria but won. You’d take both teams to score, perhaps an M’Bia header for Sevilla but both Messi and Suárez to save some Catalan blushes.

  • Latest match odds >

Deportivo v Real Sociedad, Saturday 9pm

Hail to the Scotia Nostra in Spain. Jack Harper, a talented young striker at Real Madrid, Ian Cathro, assistant coach at Valencia and now David Moyes in charge of Royalty. La Real have shown this season that when they play with pace and confidence they’ll give anyone a game. Fortunate beyond belief to squeeze past Aberdeen the effort absolutely knackered them and they’ve only managed to beat the Russian Cup finalists, the Spanish Champions and the European champions since.

All week Moyes has worked hardest on two things – winning the ball back aggressively and quickly when it’s lost and the strategy of set plays.

  • La Real go to a ground where they’ve won just six times in 36 visits, just twice in the last 10.

Depo, in the hands of a talented coach in Victor Fernández (do the names Nayim, David Seaman, Paris and 1995 help remind you who he is) are short of goals, short of talent, really, but they whipped Valencia 3-0 when Los Ché turned up lacking in intensity and concentration.

Can a foreign coach who has had to work through an interpreter and has only really been in charge for eight or so sessions impose his wishes, conquer La Real’s notoriously fragile confidence away from home and squeeze goals out of the under-performing Carlos Vela, Imanol Agirretxe or Alfred Finnbogason? Yes, by jove, yes he can! No worse than a score draw, Vela and Agirretxe to help out there and possibly even a 1-2 away beginning. Go on, Moysie.

  • Latest match odds >
  • Leg it over to Paddy Power’s La Liga coupon >

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Graham Hunter exclusive: Here’s why Gotze’s absence doesn’t mean Dortmund are done for

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Graham Hunter byline

European football expert Graham Hunter has three bets out of left field for the neutral in the all-German Champions League Final on Saturday night at Wembley.

If you’d blindfolded David, tied one arm behind his back and replaced the stone in his sling with cotton wool you’d STILL have a bigger crowd of backers on him to win his one-on-one with Goliath than those favouring  Borussia Dortmund on Saturday night.

Even though we saw Manchester United beat Bayern Munich without Paul Scholes and Roy Keane in 1999, Barcelona beat United in 2009 without Eric Abidal, Rafa Marquez and Dani Alves,  Chelsea beat Bayern without John Terry, Branislav  Ivanovic, Ramires and Raul Meireles – the absence of Mario Gotze seems to have been taken as the end of Dortmund’s hopes.

Lukasz Piszczek needs a hip operation post final because he’s in persistent pain. And if Mats Hummels starts then the spotlight will be trained right on him because of the ankle problem which he suffered in defeat against Hoffenheim last weekend.

SOCCER: One-nation European finals

The theory is that Gotze is so outstanding, such an important gateway for Dortmund’s high energy, vertical playing philosophy – that his absence is disastrous.

Bayern are football’s Terminators.

In summary they’ve scored a million goals this season, teams are petrified to score against them in case they get a knuckle sandwich, everyone’s in perfect form, each of their players is quicker, taller, stronger than their rivals. As they’d say in Goodfellas: ‘Forget about it’.

And all joking aside, Jupp Heynckes’ side are tremendous to watch and a real swine (or Schweini) to play against.

Having dominated Dortmund domestically this season, Supercup, German Cup, Bundesliga, it really would be a massive setback for Bayern not to complete the set with the Champions League trophy which their butter-fingers let slip 12 months ago against Chelsea.

And if you want to put your sterling, your Euros or even the odd Deutschmark from down the back of the sofa on Bayern the evidence keeps on mounting to say you’re spot on.

Dortmund’s key player, Robert Lewandowski, is off to Bayern once the final is over so who knows how he’ll handle the pressure of leading the line against his new employers?

Ripped out fingernails

Bayern romped to Wembley against Juventus and Barcelona on an 11-0 aggregate scoreline while Dortmund ripped out all their fingernails while clinging on for wins against Malaga and Real Madrid.

An open and shut case – right?

Possibly so.  However it’s a fact that in the last 10 matches between the sides, in all competitions, Dortmund have won five and drawn two – not a bad record.

Equally, it’s just a year since Jurgen Klopp’s side won the German Cup final 5-2 against a Bayern XI which, barring the injuries to Holger Badstuber and Toni Kroos, could feasibly start on Saturday night.

Whether or not you fancy Bayern to ultimately do the logical thing and win there may be one or two factors worth taking into account.

  • In seven of those last 10 matches between the sides Dortmund have scored the first goal.
  • Of the three previous European Cup finals between teams from the same country familiarity hasn’t bred contempt – but penalty shoot-outs instead

AC Milan beat Juve on spot-kicks in 2003, Manchester United did the same to Chelsea in 2008 and if you consider that of the four matches between Bayern and Dortmund this season there have been two draws and two single-goal wins for the Bundesliga champions then perhaps extra time and penalties aren’t wildly fanciful.

Then there is the theme which the bashful, inarticulate, wallflower Dortmund coach Jurgen Klopp himself introduced.

Champions League

GERMAN MENACE: Lewandowski, Klopp, Muller and Bond baddie Blofeld

Ahead of the final he said:

Bayern want the Bundesliga to be a one- team league. It’s like James Bond but they aren’t Bond, they are the other guy. They want to dominate Europe and Germany for a decade.

Klopp also admits that when he heard that Gotze had been bought out of his contract by Bayern Munich it devastated him for a night – enough to make him miss his friend starring in a movie Premier and the red carpet, Rolls Royce evening which was in store for Herr and Frau Klopp by association.

In one fell swoop with his Bond-villain quotes he managed to make this a grudge match and to invoke ‘underdog’ sympathy for his side.

This isn’t a tie which generally produces a flood of red cards, although Rafinha was sent off during the recent Bundesliga draw, and there have only been two red cards in European Cup finals – Arsenal ‘keeper Jens Lehmann and Didier Drogba in 2006 and 2008 respectively.

Good luck to Italian ref Nicola Rizzoli who has issued only four red cards in 39 Uefa club matches. Perhaps, just perhaps, he’ll augment that total.

Now, given that it’s the last vital club game of my working season I’m going to indulge on that sixth-sense ‘instinct’ call. Only two players, Samel Eto’o and Raul Gonzalez, have scored in two Champions League finals and Thomas Muller, is a punt of mine to score in two consecutively.

It’s hard to envisage Dortmund having a chance unless Lewandowski provides them with a goal but Nuri Sahin is a massive favourite of Klopp’s and it’s feasible that a weight of responsibility will fall on his shoulders now that Gotze is out. A surprise goal or man of the match?

It could easily be hostile, it’ll be passionate, noisy and intense. Get your bets on, get the beers in sit back and enjoy a cracker.

Graham’s best bets for the Champions League final:

  • Muller time:  Thomas to score for Bayern in consecutive finals
  • Early bath: What are the odds on a red card being shown?
  • Too close to call: See our extra-time and penalties market
  • Sahin surprise: What price the man of the match award

MBS


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Damage done for dozy Dutch

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Sunday brings crunch time in Group B at Euro 2012 and all four nations in the so-called ‘Group of Death’ can still make it through to the quarter-finals stage, with Holland priced up 5/1 ‘To Qualify‘.

It has not been a tournament to remember for the Dutch so far this summer but they can still make it into the last eight although their fate is out of their hands following back-to-back defeats to Denmark and Germany.

Bert van Marwijk and his men know ahead of their clash with Portugal in Kharkiv that they must win the game by a two-goal margin while they also need Denmark to slip to defeat against Germany to get out of jail.

The downside is that Germany will top Group B even if they are held to a draw by the Danes which would then render Holland’s result meaningless.

The Dutch can only focus on their own game, however, and the simple fact is that they need goals in order to take advantage should the other result go their way (Holland 18/1 – To Win 3/1).

History, though, is not on Holland’s side as no side has ever made the knockout stage after losing their first two games, but surely if that statistic is to be overcome then the men in orange have as good a chance as any other side.

Van Marwijk knows he must throw caution to the wind and play an attack-minded side so there might not be a place for destroyer Nigel de Jong, with striker striker Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (9/1 – To Score Two Or More Goals) pushing for a deserved start.

Holland certainly have plenty of creativity on their bench in the shape of Rafael van der Vaart, however they have created chances and would not be in this mess had they been more clinical in front of goal.

The problem facing van Marwijk is that he must go for the jugular yet also be mindful of the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Nani, Raul Meireles and Joao Moutinho who will all be bearing down on a Dutch defence that is not the strongest in Poland and Ukraine (Portugal 9/5, draw 11/5, Holland 13/8 – 90 Minutes).

The Portuguese will go through with a win unless Denmark win by a one-goal margin – other than 2-1 and 1-0 – against the Germans who have again demonstrated their prowess at tournament football.

Head coach Paulo Bento may not be presiding over Portugal’s golden generation but this crop is not too shabby and the fact he is set to name the same XI for the fifth competitive game in a row – compared to van Marwijk’s desperate juggling act – means the men from the Iberian peninsula will ge the win and keep their fingers crossed over matters in Lviv.

Portugal are 4/9 to make it to the knockout stage for the fifth European Championships in a row.

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