Graham Hunter: What David Moyes has done at Real Sociedad this week and my 11/2 tip to shock the champions

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Atlético Madrid v Málaga, Saturday 3pm

This is the definition of an intriguing wee fixture carrying far more history, and ‘sizzle’ than is immediately apparent.

The reigning champions against a side which has been brutally asset-stripped since Manuel Pellegrini left.

No-brainer, right?

Hold your horses. Since Málaga drew at home to Barcelona in late September (preventing Messi and Co from getting a single effort on target and making it seem like Javi Gracia’s mob had about 15 players on the pitch) they’ve played six times and won five. Fifteen points via five back-to-back victories – one short of the club’s all-time record. Interestingly, too, the Malagueños have only won away to Atlético three times in history – but two of them have been in the last five visits (since Jan 2010).

In fact, in those last five matches at the Calderón, Málaga have two single-goal defeats (2-1 each time), two wins (0-2, 0-3) and last season’s 1-1 draw.

On which point, that draw should make this a grudge match for Diego Simeone’s lads. On the penultimate day of the season Málaga had nothing to play for, bar pride, but led 1-0 until relatively late and battled like it was for their lives. Barça drew at Elche that weekend so a win for Atlético would have meant the title and an ability to rest key players (particularly the injured Diego Costa) at the Camp Nou and get them fit and fresh for the Champions League final against Madrid which they failed to win by a handful of seconds before collapsing, exhausted, in extra time. NB the Spanish for revenge is ‘revancha’.

Foto del partido #VamosMalaga pic.twitter.com/tmFyNziDWp

— Samuel Garcia (@samuel7garcia) October 19, 2014

Nordin Amrabat, Málaga’s leading scorer (three) is out injured and although he’s not prolific I like Samuel Garcia as an anytime goalscorer at 11/2. Scored a brilliant goal at Atlético in that 1-1 draw last May, and two crackers in Málaga’s last four wins. P.S. Málaga’s last two away wins have cost the opposition coaches their jobs – Albert ‘Chapi’ Ferrer at Córdoba and Jagoba Arrasate at Real Sociedad. But if Paddy offers you odds on Diego Simeone to complete the hat-trick – politely refuse to invest your money, okay?

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Eibar v Real Madrid, Saturday 5pm

Spanish football does many things well but has made a real botch-up of the Copa Del Rey. Cup ties (coming to a Sky Sports 5 midweek soon) are now home and away, ensuring that giant-killing is now as rare as finding a genuine, full-blooded, club-wielding, 15ft giant with a long beard and a stroppy attitude. So treasure this game. It’s as close to the magic of the FA Cup 3rd round as the Spanish game has.

The world’s best-known club, against one from a Basque town of 27,000 inhabitants. Played in a stadium which houses fewer than 6000 spectators, with several hundred watching from the terraces of tower blocks which surround the partially-open Ipurúa ground. This is Eibar’s first time in the top league in 74 years but they’ve played Madrid at home once before, in the Cup 10 years ago. A bonkers night which finished 1-1 but during which Iker Casillas had to excel.

The even better story, beyond the kitsch, is that Gaizka Garitano has got his side playing confidently, with great order and a dash of daring. The fact that Luka Modric is absent injured and Madrid’s central midfield needs re-jigging, will probably be better tested on bigger pitches than this. But elite coaches hate, just hate, that post International break threat of players having ‘relaxed’ and not yet being back in their club mindsets.

VULNERABILITY is the word which makes them lose sleep and snap irritably at the missus. Is this the moment to recommend that you back the total underdogs? I’m not certain Madrid (read Ronaldo) won’t cope. However if you wanted to favour Eibar then when they’ve had two weeks of planning, concentrated tactics and training, when Modric is out, when the game’s at Ipurúa and the referee has a record of Madrid only winning 17 of 31 games when he’s been in charge …. then there won’t be a better moment I’d venture.

Así celebró el capitán Mikel Arruabarrena su gol ante el Villarreal CF. (FotoVAVEL: Ricardo Larreina) pic.twitter.com/ozsM3lwvq1 — SD Eibar VAVEL (@Eibar_VAVEL) September 24, 2014

If the improbable is to happen Eibar would need their ‘pichichi’ Mikel Arruabarrena to score but not only should Madrid bring home the bacon, I’m sure they’ll score no matter how the game goes. Thus to win the Basques, who play in ‘Barça’ colours, would need a special ‘jack-in-the-box- goal’. Who better than Catalan, ex Barça B Abraham who scores once in a blue moon but hit an absolute pearler at Atlético this season?

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Barcelona v Sevilla, Saturday 7pm

I suggested a couple of weeks ago that Celta might win at the Camp Nou, and they did. When Barça failed to score that day it was the first time that had happened since Sevilla drew 0-0 there in October 2011.

That day the now pretty-much-forgotten Javi Varas seemed to have a personal grudge against Messi capped by saving his 90th min penalty.

Now it’s Unai Emery’s Sevilla who visit the Camp Nou and, like Celta, they have the pace, the technique, the attitude and the counter attack to win. Particularly following an international fortnight which can leave elite players sloppy and sluggish in its aftermath.

Messi will face Beto for the second time in 5 days pic.twitter.com/KEIsNnbQ8s

— Hzz. (@fcbtitto) November 22, 2014

Perhaps the best reason to suggest that won’t happen this time is, again, the Messi/Sevilla goalkeeper situation. Emery (who’s never beaten Barça as a coach) suddenly has doubts about the hero of last season, Beto, and the keeper has looked gaffe-prone. Messi keeps missing chances which he’d normally bury but he’s still getting goals and assists thus when he re-calibrates by a few millimetres and overtakes the all-time La Liga scoring record (two goals to overtake Zarra) then you’d guess a splurge of hitting the net will follow such a pressure release. More, Luis Suárez utterly changed Barcelona two weeks ago when they played poorly at Almeria but won. You’d take both teams to score, perhaps an M’Bia header for Sevilla but both Messi and Suárez to save some Catalan blushes.

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Deportivo v Real Sociedad, Saturday 9pm

Hail to the Scotia Nostra in Spain. Jack Harper, a talented young striker at Real Madrid, Ian Cathro, assistant coach at Valencia and now David Moyes in charge of Royalty. La Real have shown this season that when they play with pace and confidence they’ll give anyone a game. Fortunate beyond belief to squeeze past Aberdeen the effort absolutely knackered them and they’ve only managed to beat the Russian Cup finalists, the Spanish Champions and the European champions since.

David Moyes believes the @RealSociedad job is his biggest challenge & also believes #LaLiga is superior to the #BPL. pic.twitter.com/CNgJ6eiETS — Lineups (@LineupsApp) November 14, 2014

All week Moyes has worked hardest on two things – winning the ball back aggressively and quickly when it’s lost and the strategy of set plays.

La Real go to a ground where they’ve won just six times in 36 visits, just twice in the last 10.

Depo, in the hands of a talented coach in Victor Fernández (do the names Nayim, David Seaman, Paris and 1995 help remind you who he is) are short of goals, short of talent, really, but they whipped Valencia 3-0 when Los Ché turned up lacking in intensity and concentration.

Can a foreign coach who has had to work through an interpreter and has only really been in charge for eight or so sessions impose his wishes, conquer La Real’s notoriously fragile confidence away from home and squeeze goals out of the under-performing Carlos Vela, Imanol Agirretxe or Alfred Finnbogason? Yes, by jove, yes he can! No worse than a score draw, Vela and Agirretxe to help out there and possibly even a 1-2 away beginning. Go on, Moysie.

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Falcao can inspire Atleti shock

Posted on August 30, 2012 by SoccerCapper

Bet on the Champions League Coming up on Friday is Roberto Di Matteo’s chance to pick up his first piece of silverware this season as Chelsea take on Atletico Madrid for the European Super Cup, taking place in Monaco with the kick-off at 1945.

There were perhaps not too many predicting Chelsea’s bid for this particular trophy last season, particularly after losing 3-1 at Napoli and their subsequent draw, but somehow the Blues managed to defy the odds to go on and lift the Champions League trophy for the first time in May.

They needed to as they were hugely disappointing in the Premier League, only managing to finish sixth, but their victory at the Allianz Arena secured another season of Champions League football.

The Blues’ European success and FA Cup win last term, which was enough to secure Di Matteo a permanent deal, was largely based on defence with Chelsea trying to stifle the perceived strengths of the likes of Barcelona and Bayern Munich, which obviously worked despite the number of chances that their opponents created.

However, the addition of the likes of Eden Hazard and Oscar to the squad seems to suggest that the team could adopt a more progressive approach with Chelsea banging in eight goals in the opening three games to top the Premier League table at this early stage.

Even though they were largely second best to Manchester City in the Community Shield, Chelsea still managed to score twice so we could be in store for a far more entertaining fixture in Europe from the Londoners this time around.

The Stamford Bridge giants have been installed as the 6/5 favourites in the match betting, with the Spanish outfit on offer at 23/10 to add to their Europa League triumph of last year, with the draw available at 12/5.

Atletico missed out on the Champions League after finishing fifth in La Liga last season but fighting on two fronts may well have seen Los Colchoneros just run out of steam.

The capital club opened the new campaign with a 1-1 draw at Levante but warmed up for this showpiece clash with a resounding 4-0 thumping of the team they defeated to lift the Europa League title in May, Athletic Bilbao.

That was at the Vicente Calderon, though, where they are a much tougher proposition but they didn’t fare too badly in Europe last season and pose a very real threat to Chelsea’s aspirations.

Atletico arguably have the better strikeforce with one-time Chelsea target Radamel Falcao underlying his credentials with a hat-trick last weekend.

It would be foolish to ignore the Colombian hitman in the goalscoring markets and he looks good value at 13/2 to score the first or last goal on Friday, while he can be backed at 7/4 anytime.

Fernando Torres (9/2 First/Last, 5/4 Anytime) is perhaps enjoying life more this season, with two goals in his first three games, but he is still tarnished by past failures even if he is taking on the club where he made his name.

It certainly looks like an entertaining match with the promise of goals and, at the prices, Atletico might just be the team to arrest Chelsea’s early-season momentum.

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Redknapp the latest big shock

Posted on June 14, 2012 by SoccerCapper

Spurs are on the lookout for a new boss and Holland have been poor at Euro 2012 – although these are just two of a number of recent shocks in the sporting world (Holland 33/1 – Euro 2012 Outright).

REDKNAPP AXED

Harry Redknapp can probably cancel that scouting mission to the European Championships after he was sacked by Tottenham after four years in charge.

It was not the end expected by many fans as the former West Ham and Portsmouth chief was widely tipped to be in Poland and Ukraine right now – but in charge of England rather than Roy Hodgson.

Redknapp claims he would have been axed even if Spurs had returned to the Champions League next season – Didier Drogba’s penalty against Bayern Munich ensured they didn’t – while he also says Spurs were not too far off winning the Premier League.

However, odds of 25/1 to win the title next term would appear to suggest otherwise.

DUTCH NIGHTMARE

If Redknapp is looking for a start in international management then he might do well to keep an eye on Bert van Marwijk’s situation as Holland manager.

The Dutch have managed just one goal in two games at Euro 2012 so far – both defeats – to leave the 2010 World Cup finalists on the brink of an early exit.

Holland were tipped to go all the way in Poland and Ukraine but the 1988 European champions might not even make the knockout stage.

The Dutch are 5/1 to get themselves out of the mire and make the quarter-finals this summer.

MURRAY MINCED

Andy Murray was not expected to do much at the French Open and he did not disappoint by crashing out in the quarter-finals to David Ferrer.

Clay is not his surface but grass is which makes his second-round exit at the Aegon Championships – having received a first-round bye- a real shock despite recent injury problems.

Nicolas Mahut was too strong for the Scot on Wednesday and now the British number one is scrambling around to arrange matches in order to hone his skills for Wimbledon as a Grand Slam breakthrough remains as elusive as ever.

Murray is 13/2 to go all the way at SW19 later in the summer.

WALLABIES NOT SHARPE

Wales may well have got off to a losing start against Australia in Brisbane at the weekend, but Wallabies lock Nathan Sharpe expects a backlash.

Having gone down to Scotland in a penalty-fest in Newcastle on June 5, Robbie Deans’ men bounced back to beat the reigning Six Nations champions.

But that was only the Red Dragons’ second game together in months while the Australians have been in camp far longer yet were still less than 10 points better off.

Attention now moves to the second of three Tests in Melbourne and Sharpe claims Wales will match the Aussies in raising the level of intensity.

The real shock, of course, is finding an Australian who is not 100 per cent convinced his side is the best!

Wales are 7/4 favourites to retain their Six Nations crown in 2013.

PAC PROBE

After four shocks, one which is less so is the announcement the WBO is looking into Timothy Bradley’s controversial win over Manny Pacquiao in Las Vegas last weekend.

In a statement on the WBO’s website, Valcarcel said: “The WBO, through its Championships Committee, will evaluate the fight between Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley, which ended in a controversial result.

“The Championships Committee will meet soon and examine the video of the fight with five renowned international judges, and according to what is found, it will make its recommendation in accordance with the rules.”

Meanwhile, Amir Khan v Danny Garcia in July is among the upcoming fights currently featured by totesport.com.

Khan himself is no stranger to being involved in controversy following Lamont Peterson’s positive test for synthetic testosterone.

The Bolton fighter is a 2/9 chance to bounce back by beating Garcia in Las Vegas.

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Owls eye Seasiders shock

Posted on August 10, 2011 by SoccerCapper

There have been plenty of upsets in the first round of the Carling Cup so far and Thursday throws up the opportunity for one more, as League One outfit Sheffield Wednesday host Championship side Blackpool at Hillsborough (Sheff Wed 8/5, draw 12/5, Blackpool 13/8).

With Derby County losing out to Shrewsbury, Barnet beating Portsmouth and Coventry going down at Bury to name but a few, there are a number of Championship clubs who have suffered a cup shock.

The Owls will be hoping they can be the next side to cause an upset in this upcoming Yorkshire-Lancashire derby.

Wednesday got their League One campaign off to a decent start with a 2-0 victory over a side from the other side of the Pennines in the form of Rochdale at Hillsborough on Saturday.

Manager Gary Megson will be pleased with his side’s start to the league campaign and will be looking for a similar performance against the Tangerines.

Megson’s men will be aided by their latest signing Chris O’Grady who has joined from Rochdale with enough time to be eligible for the Carling Cup tie.

The likes of Daniel Jones, James O’Connor and Jon Otsemobor are all set to feature against Blackpool, as the Owls boss hopes to look at different options at this early stage of the season.

As for the Seasiders, they too made a great start to their league campaign with a strong away victory against Hull City at the KC Stadium on Friday in the season curtain-raiser.

Tangerines boss Ian Holloway was delighted to get his side’s season off to a winning start thanks to a superb goal from striker Gary Taylor-Fletcher (8/1 First Goalscorer).

Blackpool have been guilty of conceding goals in the League Cup, as they have conceded nine goals in their last three games in the competition.

What will also give Wednesday hope will be the fact their opponents have been knocked out four times in their last eight appearances in the first round of the tournament.

The big question will be whether Holloway decides to make wholesale changes from the side that won in East Yorkshire last week.

With the likes of Kevin Phillips (6/1 First Goalscorer) up front alongside Taylor-Fletcher and Barry Ferguson bossing play in the middle, Blackpool’s strongest XI would be clear favourites to beat the Owls.

However, Holloway is likely to make some changes to the side, which will give Wednesday hope of causing an upset.

With Megson’s side looking strong on the first day of the season they may well cause another upset against a Blackpool side who have been guilty of some poor performances in this competition.

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Paraguay poised for Brazil shock

Posted on July 17, 2011 by SoccerCapper

We now know two of the four teams who will contest the semi-finals of the Copa America, after Uruguay and Peru upset the odds in Saturday’s quarter-finals. Paraguay and Venezuela will be looking to do something similar when they take on Brazil and Chile respectively.

The Brazilians have been poor thus far and we feel there is a case to have a serious look at the Paraguayans ending any hopes the Samba Boys had of a third successive South American title.

Brazil v Paraguay (8pm)

Those who have seen much of the Copa America might have confused Brazil with Torquay United – the boys in yellow have been that bad, up until their 4-2 victory over Ecuador in the group stages. Coach Mano Menezes has so far failed to get anything like the best out of Brazil thus far in this tournament and they now face a team who came within minutes of beating the Selecao in the group stages. A late Fred equaliser saved the 7/4 favourites from an embarrassing defeat against a Paraguay team underrated by many.

Coach Gerado Martino has been in charge of Paraguay since 2006 and steered the South American nation to a quarter-final berth in the World Cup 12 months ago, eventually going out to Spain. While not the most attractive side left in the tournament, they are a tough nut to crack and have a physical side to them that many nations in the Copa America can’t call upon. They don’t score many and might have sneaked through the group stages but they are capable of an upset, as shown in 2004 when they beat Brazil in their last Copa meeting with the Samba Boys.

Brazil might have a list of star players as long as the Amazon River, but they look more like a collection of individuals than a team, unlike Paraguay. If La Albirroja can keep the likes of Neymar, Pato and Robinho quiet (easier said than done) there is no reason why they can’t upset the odds. Paraguay are 9/2 to win in 90 minutes but that is probably best left alone, with draw HT and draw FT at 21/5 the most likely outcome if Paraguay are to go through via extra time and maybe penalties.

Chile v Venezuela (11:15pm)

Much like Paraguay, Chile are another nation badly under rated and one who can’t be overlooked to go on and win the whole thing, based on how they have played so far. Arguably they looked the best team in the competition when navigating the group stages, beating Peru and Mexico, while drawing with Uruguay.

As demonstrated at the World Cup they have an attacking line to be feared, lead by Alexis Sanchez, and should have too much for Venezuela, who have a dreadful record against the Chileans. Venezuela have only ever beaten Chile once in 21 matches and have never reached the semi-finals of the Copa America. While we could have three upsets in the quarter-finalsm this is the one that should play out like everyone is expecting.

Chile are 8/13 to win inside 90 minutes, while you’d do well to consider Humberto Suazo at 6/5, Sanchez at 11/8 and Matias Fernandez at 7/4 to score at anytime for La Roja.

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Hodgson reacts to Blackpool shock

Posted on October 5, 2010 by SoccerCapper

Liverpool are 18/1 to be playing Championship football next season and boss Roy Hodgson admits the Reds are in a Premier League relegation battle.

Hodgson watched on as his side slumped to an embarrassing Anfield defeat to new boys Blackpool on Sunday, to leave them in the bottom three on goal difference.

Liverpool have won just once in the league so far this season, with seven games gone, and they are already a massive 12 points behind leaders Chelsea (Liverpool 7/1 – Top Four Finish).

But by the same token, Hodgson’s men are just three points behind his former club Fulham, who sit in mid-table, but the ex-Inter Milan chief is refusing to take anything for granted as fans await an upturn in fortunes.

He said: “It’s seven games gone and there are 31 left, which is an awful lot of games, but the fact is that when you are in the relegation zone you are in a relegation battle.”

Hodgson now has two weeks to stew over his side’s travails as the international break for Euro 2012 qualifiers means Liverpool are not in action until Sunday October 17.

The Reds’ next Premier League game is the small matter of a trip to Goodison Park to face city rivals Everton.

The Blues have also endured a slow start to their campaign, but did sign off before the break with a morale-boosting 2-0 win at Birmingham.

Interestingly, Everton are still searching for their first home win in the league this term while Liverpool have not won away.

Goodison captain Phil Neville admits the shame of starting last weekend at the bottom of the table played a part in the Birmingham victory.

“We were bottom of the league and it was the kick up the backside we needed,” said the former England international.

“We’ve also let the fans down. They have been deflated these last couple of weeks and we have as well.

“I think they saw us get our just rewards at Birmingham for the effort we put in. The pleasing thing is we’ve not lost that self-belief.”

Neville added: “Sometimes when you have bad defeats, you can revert back to safety first and playing with fear. I don’t think we’ve done that and everybody needs applauding for that.”

Everton can be backed at 12/1 to finish in the top four of the Premier League.

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