Graham Hunter La Liga preview: Why Real should out-gun Sociedad but Barca are no gimmes at Villarreal

It’s week two of La Liga and the big guns have very different test as Barca and Real hit the road hoping to match reigning champions Atletico win over Eibar at the Calderón.

Villarreal v Barcelona, Sunday 6pm 

Once Villarreal found out how to beat Barcelona for the first time, in April 2003, it began a 14 match run during which Barça only won four times, there were four draws while, both home and away, Villarreal won six.

The golden years of Pep Guardiola saw the contest veer firmly back in favour of the Camp Nou side but the gap has been narrowing over the last three results – two single-goal victories for Barça and a 0-0 draw.

In fact for the good of La Liga and Spanish football in general it’s a terrific time for this test to come around for Luis ‘Lucho’ Enrique’s (below) re-designed Barcelona side.

Luis-Enrique 840

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Their work ethic, during pre-season and in training, is vastly different from the laissez faire days of Tata Martino, the investment in the squad may not have bought premium beef but it’s better than the spam which was often served up last season.

However it’s nice and early for this project to be given a test like the visit to the Madrigal. Uncomfortable even.

Villarreal work with great intensity whether or not they have the ball, they break at speed, they are on the back of two thrilling Europa League results and, importantly, Cani is once again fit and available to add his nous and attacking aggression to the midfield. (He scored against both Barça and Madrid last season but how they missed him in the middle of the campaign when he was out for 12 straight games.)

At the back Villarreal fought Spurs off for Mateo Musacchio, they’ve signed the previously on-loan Sergio Asenjo (who’s good enough to compete for a place in the Spain squad) and it’s just the type of tight pitch and fervent ‘little town’ support to make this the equivalent of a well balanced FA Cup third-round tie.

Luis Suarez Uruguay resize

Above all, Villarreal play football. They are smart, quick, protective of the ball and will attack Barcelona. Six months from now, perhaps even six weeks from now, with all the new signings bedded in, Luis Suárez (above) available, Luis Enrique in greater command of what’s at his disposal you’d feel confident of backing Barcelona.

Right now it’s one of those ‘you never know’ games about which the rest of Spain is crossing it’s fingers. And singing the verse to Yellow Submarine.

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid, Sunday 8pm 

Carlo Ancelotti840

Once Real Madrid would confront a visit to the Basque Country, in fact anywhere north of Catalunya, with a shudder of horror.

Defeat would be on the cards and what would be absolutely certain would be a night of Basque hostility, intensity, a test of mental and physical muscles – no quarter given.

Right now, ahead of their trip to the Anoeta this weekend, I’d guess that Carlo Ancelotti (above) Paul Clement and Fernando Hierro are wearing happy little grins.

Rogered in Russia

While Madrid were in Geneva dominating the Uefa gala, basking in the golden glow of adoration and their 10th Champions Cup their opponents on Sunday, Real Sociedad, were being rogered in Russia.

Five hour trip there, big new summer-signing Alfred Finnbogason missing injured, three-goal defeat, out of Europe, newly signed keeper Geronimo Rulli injured and likely out for two months, five-agonising-hour journey home. Welcome to the big(ish) time.

So La Real v Real shapes up as the perfect opportunity for Madrid to add to their ‘racha’ (run) of good results against the blue-and-whites.

It’s a decade since La Real beat Real and in their last six Liga meettings the capital club have pumped 26 goals past their rivals.

Right now the crowd are out of love with La Real, Jagoba Arrasate’s job is under threat, goals are terrifically hard to come by and the Txuri-urdin have lost a key man when they sold Chile’s World Cup keeper, Claudio Bravo to Barcelona.

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Despite Madrid looking a bit slow, lacking in crisp, decisive passing and finishing last weekend there are positives. Ronaldo is nearer to fitness, the fact that Benzema broke his scoring drought against Cordoba and the fact that La Real have had a brutal week directs us towards an away win.

If it’s single-handed resistance you are looking for then think Xabi Prieto: he’s scored five times against Madrid in two recent matches – a 4-3 defeat and a 3-3 draw. And if you go ALL the way back to La Real’s last victory over Los Blancos, in May 2004, who scored two of the goals in the 4-1 away win?

Señor Prieto, that’s right.

You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter @BumperGraham

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Graham Hunter: What David Moyes has done at Real Sociedad this week and my 11/2 tip to shock the champions

Atlético Madrid v Málaga, Saturday 3pm

This is the definition of an intriguing wee fixture carrying far more history, and ‘sizzle’ than is immediately apparent.

The reigning champions against a side which has been brutally asset-stripped since Manuel Pellegrini left.

No-brainer, right?

Hold your horses. Since Málaga drew at home to Barcelona in late September (preventing Messi and Co from getting a single effort on target and making it seem like Javi Gracia’s mob had about 15 players on the pitch) they’ve played six times and won five. Fifteen points via five back-to-back victories – one short of the club’s all-time record. Interestingly, too, the Malagueños have only won away to Atlético three times in history – but two of them have been in the last five visits (since Jan 2010).

  • In fact, in those last five matches at the Calderón, Málaga have two single-goal defeats (2-1 each time), two wins (0-2, 0-3) and last season’s 1-1 draw.

On which point, that draw should make this a grudge match for Diego Simeone’s lads. On the penultimate day of the season Málaga had nothing to play for, bar pride, but led 1-0 until relatively late and battled like it was for their lives. Barça drew at Elche that weekend so a win for Atlético would have meant the title and an ability to rest key players (particularly the injured Diego Costa) at the Camp Nou and get them fit and fresh for the Champions League final against Madrid which they failed to win by a handful of seconds before collapsing, exhausted, in extra time. NB the Spanish for revenge is ‘revancha’.

Nordin Amrabat, Málaga’s leading scorer (three) is out injured and although he’s not prolific I like Samuel Garcia as an anytime goalscorer at 11/2. Scored a brilliant goal at Atlético in that 1-1 draw last May, and two crackers in Málaga’s last four wins. P.S. Málaga’s last two away wins have cost the opposition coaches their jobs – Albert ‘Chapi’ Ferrer at Córdoba and Jagoba Arrasate at Real Sociedad. But if Paddy offers you odds on Diego Simeone to complete the hat-trick – politely refuse to invest your money, okay?

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Eibar v Real Madrid, Saturday 5pm

Spanish football does many things well but has made a real botch-up of the Copa Del Rey. Cup ties (coming to a Sky Sports 5 midweek soon) are now home and away, ensuring that giant-killing is now as rare as finding a genuine, full-blooded, club-wielding, 15ft giant with a long beard and a stroppy attitude. So treasure this game. It’s as close to the magic of the FA Cup 3rd round as the Spanish game has.

The world’s best-known club, against one from a Basque town of 27,000 inhabitants. Played in a stadium which houses fewer than 6000 spectators, with several hundred watching from the terraces of tower blocks which surround the partially-open Ipurúa ground. This is Eibar’s first time in the top league in 74 years but they’ve played Madrid at home once before, in the Cup 10 years ago. A bonkers night which finished 1-1 but during which Iker Casillas had to excel.

The even better story, beyond the kitsch, is that Gaizka Garitano has got his side playing confidently, with great order and a dash of daring. The fact that Luka Modric is absent injured and Madrid’s central midfield needs re-jigging, will probably be better tested on bigger pitches than this. But elite coaches hate, just hate, that post International break threat of players having ‘relaxed’ and not yet being back in their club mindsets.

VULNERABILITY is the word which makes them lose sleep and snap irritably at the missus. Is this the moment to recommend that you back the total underdogs? I’m not certain Madrid (read Ronaldo) won’t cope. However if you wanted to favour Eibar then when they’ve had two weeks of planning, concentrated tactics and training, when Modric is out, when the game’s at Ipurúa and the referee has a record of Madrid only winning 17 of 31 games when he’s been in charge …. then there won’t be a better moment I’d venture.

If the improbable is to happen Eibar would need their ‘pichichi’ Mikel Arruabarrena to score but not only should Madrid bring home the bacon, I’m sure they’ll score no matter how the game goes. Thus to win the Basques, who play in ‘Barça’ colours, would need a special ‘jack-in-the-box- goal’. Who better than Catalan, ex Barça B Abraham who scores once in a blue moon but hit an absolute pearler at Atlético this season?

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Barcelona v Sevilla, Saturday 7pm

I suggested a couple of weeks ago that Celta might win at the Camp Nou, and they did. When Barça failed to score that day it was the first time that had happened since Sevilla drew 0-0 there in October 2011.

That day the now pretty-much-forgotten Javi Varas seemed to have a personal grudge against Messi capped by saving his 90th min penalty.

Now it’s Unai Emery’s Sevilla who visit the Camp Nou and, like Celta, they have the pace, the technique, the attitude and the counter attack to win. Particularly following an international fortnight which can leave elite players sloppy and sluggish in its aftermath.

Perhaps the best reason to suggest that won’t happen this time is, again, the Messi/Sevilla goalkeeper situation. Emery (who’s never beaten Barça as a coach) suddenly has doubts about the hero of last season, Beto, and the keeper has looked gaffe-prone. Messi keeps missing chances which he’d normally bury but he’s still getting goals and assists thus when he re-calibrates by a few millimetres and overtakes the all-time La Liga scoring record (two goals to overtake Zarra) then you’d guess a splurge of hitting the net will follow such a pressure release. More, Luis Suárez utterly changed Barcelona two weeks ago when they played poorly at Almeria but won. You’d take both teams to score, perhaps an M’Bia header for Sevilla but both Messi and Suárez to save some Catalan blushes.

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Deportivo v Real Sociedad, Saturday 9pm

Hail to the Scotia Nostra in Spain. Jack Harper, a talented young striker at Real Madrid, Ian Cathro, assistant coach at Valencia and now David Moyes in charge of Royalty. La Real have shown this season that when they play with pace and confidence they’ll give anyone a game. Fortunate beyond belief to squeeze past Aberdeen the effort absolutely knackered them and they’ve only managed to beat the Russian Cup finalists, the Spanish Champions and the European champions since.

All week Moyes has worked hardest on two things – winning the ball back aggressively and quickly when it’s lost and the strategy of set plays.

  • La Real go to a ground where they’ve won just six times in 36 visits, just twice in the last 10.

Depo, in the hands of a talented coach in Victor Fernández (do the names Nayim, David Seaman, Paris and 1995 help remind you who he is) are short of goals, short of talent, really, but they whipped Valencia 3-0 when Los Ché turned up lacking in intensity and concentration.

Can a foreign coach who has had to work through an interpreter and has only really been in charge for eight or so sessions impose his wishes, conquer La Real’s notoriously fragile confidence away from home and squeeze goals out of the under-performing Carlos Vela, Imanol Agirretxe or Alfred Finnbogason? Yes, by jove, yes he can! No worse than a score draw, Vela and Agirretxe to help out there and possibly even a 1-2 away beginning. Go on, Moysie.

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La Liga Betting Preview – Real Sociedad v Barcelona

Lionel MessiReal Sociedad host the best team in La Liga this evening as Barcelona travel to the Basque country. The Catalans will no doubt hope to extend their record-breaking league run against the San Sebastian based team after being held to a draw by Malaga at home in the Copa del Rey last week.

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Sociedad bid to end travel woes

Real Sociedad travel to promoted Real Valladolid on Monday in La Liga aiming to pick up their first points on the road at the fifth attempt this season.

The two sides occupy positions in the middle ground of the relatively early league standings with Valladolid sitting one point ahead of Sociedad going into the game.

But, despite the fact the two sides have both won three of their opening eight games to date, it does not tell the full story going into this encounter at the Estadio Municipal Jose Zorilla.

Valladolid, who lost out at Malaga away from home last week thanks to a late goal for the hosts, have won two and drawn one of their four games on home soil so far, including a 6-1 thrashing of Rayo Vallecano at the end of September and can be backed at 11/10 to win this one.

However, the problem facing coach Miroslav Djukic is the loss of star striker Manucho Goncalves to suspension, while Lluis Sastre is set to miss out despite being near to a return after a lengthy spell on the sidelines.

Valladolid’s Basque visitors have stayed strong on their home patch with three successive wins before last Sunday’s 1-0 defeat against Atletico Madrid.

However, away from home has been a different story and coach Philippe Montanier will be desperate to find a formula to end a painful run of defeats against mainly lower league opposition in which they have only scored two goals and conceded 10.

Real Sociedad, 12/5 to win, have a host of injury doubts with Claudio Bravo, Ruben Pardo, Diego Irfan, Inigo Martinez and Liassine Cadamuro all looking to shake off respective problems to feature, while David Zurutuza and Gorka Elustondo are definitely out.

Past history is difficult to use to try and determine an outcome as the two sides have not met in La Liga since the 2003-04 campaign and that match ended all square in a 2-2 draw in Valladolid.

Sociedad have won almost twice as many meetings between the two clubs with 11 to six and there have been five draws.

On the basis that Valladolid will go into the game on the back of a moral denting defeat at Malaga, we feel Sociedad can finally stop the rot and secure a point in a low-scoring stale-mate.

Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 9/4
Value Bet: 1-1 Correct Score @ 11/2

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Atletico to push aside Sociedad

Spanish football continues this Sunday with five games taking place in La Liga, in the pick of those second place Atletico Madrid (25/1 La Liga outright) travel to Real Sociedad.

The early kick off on Sunday sees Getafe take on Levante (Getafe 5/6, draw 12/5, Levante 16/5), two sides who currently sit in mid table and will be looking to take three points away from the fixture. The home team come into the game off back to back wins and will be looking to continue in that rich vein of form, although they are still missing top scorer Abdelaziz Barrada, who serves the final game in his suspension. They will have a tough test against Levante, who secured European football last season and took three points off Valencia before the international break.

Bottom of the table Espanyol will welcome Rayo Vallecano (Espanyol 10/11, Draw 5/2, Rayo 11/4) in a fixture that they need to take three points from. The team from Barcelona have started the season poorly and are yet to taste victory so far, so need a bit of luck to turn their fortunes around at this early stage.  They will feel they have a real opportunity to take something away from Rayo, who started this season with two wins but have since failed to pick up a win.

Real Zaragoza will travel to Granada (Granada 10/11, draw 12/5, Zaragoza 3/1), with both managers having to chose from depleted squads. Granada boss Juan Antonio Anquela will be without new signing Antonio Floro Flores, Fran Rico and Hassan Yebda, who are all missing through injury, as well as Yacine Brahimi and Dani Benitez who are both suspended. Likewise, Manolo Jiménez will have to adjust his starting 11 with Aranda, Adam Pinter and Ivan Obradovic all injured alongside Alvaro Gonzalez and Christian Romaric who both miss out through suspension. With both managers having to make a number of changes the quality of football may be affected (Correct score 0-0 15/2).

Struggling Osasuna will take on high flying Real Betis (Osasuna 21/20, Draw 12/5, Real Betis 5/2) at the Estadio El Sadar as they look to get their campaign going. Osasuna have only picked up one win and one draw so far and lie in a woeful 19th place, they will have to be on top of their game if they are to come away from this meeting with anything. Betis sit 4th in the table but after a good start they have tasted defeat twice recently and could be a target for an Osasuna side who will be looking to get among the goals.

The late kick off on Sunday sees Real Sociedad welcome Atletico Madrid (Sociedad 13/5, Draw 5/2, Atletico evens). Diego Simeone’s side are firm favourites for this one and no surprise as they are yet to be beaten this season, after drawing on the opening day they have gone from strength to strength winning every game with the aid of Radamel Falcao, who is the league’s joint top scorer on eight goals. Sociedad are unbeaten at the Estadio Municipal de Anoeta so far with three wins from three and this great home form has helped them to 13th in the table.

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