Graham Hunter La Liga preview: Why Real should out-gun Sociedad but Barca are no gimmes at Villarreal

It’s week two of La Liga and the big guns have very different test as Barca and Real hit the road hoping to match reigning champions Atletico win over Eibar at the Calderón.

Villarreal v Barcelona, Sunday 6pm 

Once Villarreal found out how to beat Barcelona for the first time, in April 2003, it began a 14 match run during which Barça only won four times, there were four draws while, both home and away, Villarreal won six.

The golden years of Pep Guardiola saw the contest veer firmly back in favour of the Camp Nou side but the gap has been narrowing over the last three results – two single-goal victories for Barça and a 0-0 draw.

In fact for the good of La Liga and Spanish football in general it’s a terrific time for this test to come around for Luis ‘Lucho’ Enrique’s (below) re-designed Barcelona side.

Luis-Enrique 840

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Their work ethic, during pre-season and in training, is vastly different from the laissez faire days of Tata Martino, the investment in the squad may not have bought premium beef but it’s better than the spam which was often served up last season.

However it’s nice and early for this project to be given a test like the visit to the Madrigal. Uncomfortable even.

Villarreal work with great intensity whether or not they have the ball, they break at speed, they are on the back of two thrilling Europa League results and, importantly, Cani is once again fit and available to add his nous and attacking aggression to the midfield. (He scored against both Barça and Madrid last season but how they missed him in the middle of the campaign when he was out for 12 straight games.)

At the back Villarreal fought Spurs off for Mateo Musacchio, they’ve signed the previously on-loan Sergio Asenjo (who’s good enough to compete for a place in the Spain squad) and it’s just the type of tight pitch and fervent ‘little town’ support to make this the equivalent of a well balanced FA Cup third-round tie.

Luis Suarez Uruguay resize

Above all, Villarreal play football. They are smart, quick, protective of the ball and will attack Barcelona. Six months from now, perhaps even six weeks from now, with all the new signings bedded in, Luis Suárez (above) available, Luis Enrique in greater command of what’s at his disposal you’d feel confident of backing Barcelona.

Right now it’s one of those ‘you never know’ games about which the rest of Spain is crossing it’s fingers. And singing the verse to Yellow Submarine.

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid, Sunday 8pm 

Carlo Ancelotti840

Once Real Madrid would confront a visit to the Basque Country, in fact anywhere north of Catalunya, with a shudder of horror.

Defeat would be on the cards and what would be absolutely certain would be a night of Basque hostility, intensity, a test of mental and physical muscles – no quarter given.

Right now, ahead of their trip to the Anoeta this weekend, I’d guess that Carlo Ancelotti (above) Paul Clement and Fernando Hierro are wearing happy little grins.

Rogered in Russia

While Madrid were in Geneva dominating the Uefa gala, basking in the golden glow of adoration and their 10th Champions Cup their opponents on Sunday, Real Sociedad, were being rogered in Russia.

Five hour trip there, big new summer-signing Alfred Finnbogason missing injured, three-goal defeat, out of Europe, newly signed keeper Geronimo Rulli injured and likely out for two months, five-agonising-hour journey home. Welcome to the big(ish) time.

So La Real v Real shapes up as the perfect opportunity for Madrid to add to their ‘racha’ (run) of good results against the blue-and-whites.

It’s a decade since La Real beat Real and in their last six Liga meettings the capital club have pumped 26 goals past their rivals.

Right now the crowd are out of love with La Real, Jagoba Arrasate’s job is under threat, goals are terrifically hard to come by and the Txuri-urdin have lost a key man when they sold Chile’s World Cup keeper, Claudio Bravo to Barcelona.

ronaldo_freekick

Despite Madrid looking a bit slow, lacking in crisp, decisive passing and finishing last weekend there are positives. Ronaldo is nearer to fitness, the fact that Benzema broke his scoring drought against Cordoba and the fact that La Real have had a brutal week directs us towards an away win.

If it’s single-handed resistance you are looking for then think Xabi Prieto: he’s scored five times against Madrid in two recent matches – a 4-3 defeat and a 3-3 draw. And if you go ALL the way back to La Real’s last victory over Los Blancos, in May 2004, who scored two of the goals in the 4-1 away win?

Señor Prieto, that’s right.

You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter @BumperGraham

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Malaga to conquer Villarreal

Another superb weekend of La Liga football is rounded of on Monday night when this season’s surprise strugglers, Villareal, travel to La Rosaleda to face big-spending Malaga (Malaga 4/6, draw 11/4, Villareal 4/1).

Both sides went into the season with high hopes but have regularly disappointed and will be looking at this match as a chance to find some inspiration for the rest of the season.

After being taken over by rich backers earlier in the year, Malaga have seen themselves transformed from relegation candidates to Champions League hopefuls but despite heavy investment have struggled to impose themselves on the division this season.

However, they’re currently on a good run of form having not lost in their last three and coach Manuel Pellegrini will be hoping for a big performance on Monday.

Key to this will undoubtedly be playmaker Santi Cazorla (13/8 to score anytime) who faces his old club for the time since his move in the summer.

The Spanish international was courted by a number of Europe’s top sides before moving to Andalucia and has been ‘Los Boquerrones’ stand out payer so far this campaign and has often carried the team on his own.

He’ll be expected to be the man to ignite the talented Malaga attack so keep an eye on him as he often has a say on the outcome of his side’s matches.

Cazorla’s partner in crime is often Venezuelan striker Solomon Rondon (11/8 to score anytime), who is likely to be the man charged with leading the line.

Rondon appears to have significantly improved this season but has been rather goal-shy this term and has only netted once in the league.

Villareal have a notoriously leaky defence, though, and Rondon will be looking to take advantage of any slip-ups. The ‘Yellow Submarine’ have had a torrid time of it this year and have only won one of their 12 games this season. This has been mainly down to the absence of star strikers Giuseppe Rossi and Nilmar and their lack of goals is slowly becoming a major worry.

Their injury list currently contains a number of their stars but boss Juan Carlos Garrido can welcome back Argentine defender Gonzalo Rodriguez for the match and he will be looking to him to make a major difference to his struggling backline.

Rodriguez has all the attributes needed to be a top quality central defender and on his day can be world class. Garrido will be hoping he can bounce straight back into form in Andalucia.

Another player to look out for is former West Brom midfielder Borja Valero (10/3 to score at anytime). In the absence of the likes of Rossi and Cani, much of  the Castellon side’s creativity now comes through him and, with all the injuries, he is now one of the side’s senior players.

Valero is the type of player who can make something out of nothing and will be hoping to put his stamp on the game.

However, with all Villareal’s problems, its hard not to look past a Malaga win and with the players at their disposal should come out comfortable victors.

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Villarreal make Porto favourites

Spanish outfit Villarreal are looking to put a spanner in the works of a potential all-Portuguese Europa League final in Dublin next month ahead of their semi-final first leg with Porto as they aim to reach a first major European final at the third attempt (6/5 Villarreal To Qualify).

The Yellow Submarine are the odd ones out ahead of Thursday’s last-four encounters as they travel to Portugal to face an in-form Porto side at the same time Portuguese outfits Benfica and Braga do battle in their first-leg showdown.

Porto v Villarreal

Villarreal are desperate to end their ‘nearly’ tag after losing 1-0 on aggregate to La Liga rivals Valencia in the semi-finals of the 2004 UEFA Cup before Arsenal defeated them by the same score over two legs in the 2006 Champions League semis.

They will go into battle boosted by their 8-2 aggregate win against Dutch outfit of Twente Enschede in the quarter-finals.

However, Villarreal midfielder Bruno Soriano is under no illusions about the size of the task facing his side, claiming that Porto are clear favourites to progress (8/13 To Qualify).

And while he is happy with Villarreal’s attacking qualities, Soriano is looking for the backline to try and keep it tight so they have a chance on home soil in the second leg (Villarreal 7/2 To Keep A Clean Sheet).

He said: “We have to improve our defence to not concede as many goals. If we can do that, we will have taken a big step forward.”

Villarreal will fancy their chances of securing away goals with Italian forward Giuseppe Rossi (7/1 First Goalscorer) on 10 goals in the Europa League already this season, while Porto’s poor record of 11 wins in 34 attempts against Spanish opposition in Europe means the omens are against the Portuguese.

However, while Soriano’s claim that Porto are favourites could be a possible attempt at mind games, it is not without foundation.

Andre Villas-Boas’ team have enjoyed a storming season in which they have already wrapped up the Portuguese title in style, having won 25 and drawn two of their 27 matches so far, leaving them 19 points clear of Benfica.

Their form in the Europa League is just as prolific as they have secured 12 wins in 14 outings, including all seven away from home which is a warning to Villarreal ahead of the second leg.

They also have plenty of goals, having thrashed Spartak Moscow 10-3 on aggregate in their quarter-final clash, while they boast the competition’s top scorer with Colombian striker Radamel Falcao (5/1 Two or More Match Goalscorer) leading the way with 11.

It is a game that will no doubt contain plenty of goals (11/5 Four Or More Total Goals) and, despite the desperation of Villarreal, Porto should be able to take some kind of lead to El Madrigal for the second leg.

First-leg prediction: Porto To Win 90 Minutes @ 4/6

Value Bet: Porto To Win 3-1 Correct Score @ 11/1

Benfica v Braga

The all-Portuguese affair in the second semi-final on Thursday sees two sides looking to end otherwise disappointing campaigns on a high after dropping into the Europa League (Benfica 5/2, Braga 7/1 – Outright) from the Champions League and living in the shadow of Porto in domestic competitions.

Benfica, in particular, are smarting from the fact Porto wrapped up the Portuguese title courtesy of a 3-1 win against them in Lisbon, before then coming back from a two-goal first-leg deficit in the domestic Cup to dump them out on away goals last week.

They will have the scent of revenge in their nostrils if they can line up a final showdown with Porto next month and that should inspire them to get past Braga in the semi-finals (Benfica 2/5 To Qualify).

Braga will not be pushovers as they have already picked up some notable scalps in European competition this season, dumping Celtic out of the Champions League last July and defeating Arsenal in the group stages.

They saw off Liverpool 1-0 on aggregate in the Europa League round-of-16 before booking their semi-final place on away goals after a 1-1 aggregate draw with Dynamo Kiev.

While scoring goals is not Braga’s forte of late, they clearly know how to grind out a required result (4/1 To Keep A Clean Sheet) and will not roll over for their more illustrious Portuguese rivals.

First-leg prediction: Benfica To Win To Nil @ 13/10

Value Bet: Benfica To Win 1-0 Correct Score @ 11/2

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Villarreal expect strong Hercules

Villarreal (7/5 in Match Betting) coach Juan Carlos Garrido knows the Yellow Submarine will have to play well against Hercules (8/5) tonight to earn their sixth successive Primera Liga victory.

Garrido has warned his in-form squad to expect the newly-promoted team to make it tough and says they will need to give it 100 per cent to take all three points.

The Alicante-based club signed ex-Juventus striker David Trezeguet and Paraguayan hitman Nelson Valdez from Borussia Dortmund in the summer and have scored some impressive results already in the Spanish top flight.

“They’ve made a great investment with the signing of top players,” said Garrido.

“The only way to win on their pitch is by giving a 100 per cent, because they are a good group and have some big stars.”

The coach hinted at an unchanged side, which means strike partners Nilmar and Giuseppe Rossi will continue up front.

He said: “It’s important to continue with the group and give a chance to players who have earned it in practice.

“We have a unit that works well, but there are players who can feel entitled to a starting place.”

The front two have combined for 11 goals between them this season and both names were on the scoresheet in Villarreal’s 2-0 win over racing Santander before the international break.

Hercules have managed only five goals this season, but did pull off a shock 2-0 win away to Barcelona and a 2-0 home win over Sevilla recently (4/5 Yes – Both Teams To Score).

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How Valencia Can Win La Liga – Next Up: Deportivo La Coruna, Valencia, Espanyol, Xerez, Villarreal

La Liga 300x150 How Valencia Can Win La Liga   Next Up: Deportivo La Coruna, Valencia,  Espanyol, Xerez, VillarrealWith the title race looking set to continue neck and neck this week with what should be wins for both Barcelona and Real Madrid in their respective matches, it looks as though the scrap for the remaining Champions League qualification places will be in the spotlight.

After sitting comfortably behind the top two for much of the season, Valencia have conceded ground on the sides just below them in the league. They currently sit in third position – four points ahead of fourth placed Mallorca and just five points better than fifth (and no Champions League qualifying) placed Sevilla.

Valencia must now be wary of Mallorca and Sevilla’s challenge, but their destiny is firmly in their own hands at the moment with third place being los Che’s to lose.

With five games remaining, Valencia (1,40) host Deportivo La Coruna (7.00) at the Mestalla on Saturday night and travel to Barcelona to face Espanyol next weekend before ending the season at home to Xerez and Tenerife on either side of a trip to Villarreal.

Three of the last four league meetings between these two sides on Saturday have ended as draws, including the 0-0 in the reverse fixture back in December at the Riazor.

However, Valencia are unbeaten in their last nine league meetings with Deportivo claiming five wins and four draws.

Valencia are currently in a rich vein of home form, they are unbeaten in their last nine fixtures (eight wins and a draw), and have not conceded a single goal in the last five.

The travelling Deportivo are without a win in the last eight match-days of this campaign, and have not scored more than one goal per game in the process.

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Related posts:

  1. Barcelona Face Tricky Fixture Away at Deportivo La Coruna
  2. Valencia Look To Get First Home Win Over Racing In Six Years
  3. La Liga Predictions: Barcelona Pedigree Will Show Against Valencia


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