Nottingham Forest will be desperate to put recent play-off disasters to one side when they tackle Swansea City in the first leg of their Championship semi-final at The City Ground (Forest 13/10, draw 23/10, Swansea 21/10 in the match betting).
Four years ago, when Forest were languishing in League One, they seemed certain to be heading to Wembley when they won at Yeovil Town 2-0 in the first leg, only to suffer a stunning 5-2 home reverse to the Glovers in the return clash.
After that amazing aggregate defeat, Forest did at least bounce back by winning automatic promotion 12 months later, but they were to endure another disastrous play-off experience at the end of the 2009-10 campaign.
Billy Davies’ side were everyone’s favourites to see off rank outsiders Blackpool even after they had been beaten 2-1 at Bloomfield Road in the first leg.
However, despite being unbeatable at The City Ground in the second half of the regular season, including a run of 12 successive victories, they contrived to lose 4-3 to Ian Holloway’s inspired side, who went on to beat Cardiff City at Wembley to confirm their place in the Premier League.
Despite a few wobbles along the way, Forest finished the 2010-11 campaign strongly to see off the challenge of Leeds United and Millwall and clinch sixth spot.
However, they will find it difficult to see off a Swansea City side that have a notoriously mean defence and are 13/5 with totesport to keep a clean sheet on Thursday.
Last term, under Paulo Sousa’s astute stewardship, they only just missed out on a top-six spot after conceding a paltry 37 goals in their 46 matches.
Despite Sousa’s summer defection to Leicester City, the Swans have prospered this term under ex-Watford and Reading manager Brendan Rodgers.
Once again their defence has been solid – Rodgers’ side conceded only 42 goals as they finished third – but they have added some goalscoring flair to their defensive organisation, finding the net 69 times in comparison to last season’s tally of 40 goals.
Former Chelsea starlet Scott Sinclair (13/2 to open the scoring at The City Ground) has been in blistering form, scoring 19 times in the Championship this term.
He has received good support from Darren Pratley and Stephen Dobbie who have both netted nine times.
There has been little to choose between the two sides this term, with Forest beating Rodgers’ team 3-1 at The City Ground in September, before the Swans gained revenge at the Liberty Stadium in March when they won by the odd goal in five.
Despite the prize on offer being so vast, a high-scoring game could once again be on the cards, with 12/1 available on a 2-2 draw.
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