The Championship season reaches its climax on Saturday with two outstanding matters to be resolved and we look at how Southampton and Cardiff are set to be the ones smiling at full-time with regards to who claims the final automatic promotion place and the last play-off spot respectively.
Southampton v Coventry
All the action gets underway at 12.30 on Saturday lunch-time and all eyes will be on St Mary’s as Nigel Adkins‘ Saints look to finally book their place in the Premier League alongside champions Reading.
Southampton have had a couple of small screen horror shows in recent games with a televised 3-1 home defeat to Reading and a 2-1 reverse at Middlesbrough in front of the cameras last Saturday keeping their fans waiting to celebrate a second successive promotion and put an end to their seven-year top-flight exile.
However, a win against already-relegated Coventry City is required, while a draw could do unless third-placed West Ham, who are two points behind at kick-off, stick four past Hull City at Upton Park.
Only the pressure can get to the Saints’ players now because on paper this fixture is a ‘gimme’ in terms of the three points.
They currently top the ‘home’ table going into the match, are the Championship’s top scorers with 81 goals in 45 matches and have already beaten the Sky Blues twice at the Ricoh Arena in the league and FA Cup.
Adkins, who is set to replace hamstring injury victim Richard Chaplow with Guly Do Prado in his starting XI, will be confident of seeing his team record a ninth league double of the season and book a place in the Premier League.
Andy Thorn’s Coventry side are preparing for League One football next season – the first time the Sky Blues have been at the third tier of the English game since 1964.
They arrive on the south coast at the bottom of the ‘away’ table after recording just one away win all season and they are the lowest scorers in the division with 40 less than their opponents going into the encounter.
To make their mission even more difficult, defender Richard Keogh is suspended following his sending-off against Doncaster so 17-year-old Jordan Willis is poised for a first senior start.
The only statistic Coventry – and West Ham – fans can cling on to is that Southampton have not recorded a league double over the Sky Blues for 21 years.
However, regardless of Hammers’ boss Sam Allardyce’s attempt to point out the pressure is all on the Saints, we feel they should have more than enough to get past Coventry and once the first goal goes in the floodgates will open.
Incidentally we feel the Hammers (1/2 Home Win 90 Minutes) will keep their part of the bargain and defeat Nick Barmby’s Hull City but will have to go back to the Premier League via the play-offs.
Prediction: Southampton Home 90 Minutes @ 3/10
Value Bet: Southampton 3-0 Correct Score @ 14/1
Crystal Palace v Cardiff
The only other outstanding issue in the Championship is the race for the sixth and final play-off place with Cardiff in the driving seat.
The Bluebirds missed the chance to seal their place last weekend after being held to a 1-1 draw by Leeds, while seventh-placed Middlesbrough valiantly fought back from a first-minute goal down to see off promotion-chasing Southampton at the Riverside.
The mission for Malky Mackay’s men is simple – a draw or win at Selhurst Park will be enough to seal a third successive play-off campaign as Tony Mowbray’s Boro are two points behind with a vastly inferior goal difference.
The current form is positive for the Bluebirds as they go to Selhurst Park unbeaten in nine matches and have only lost once against a team in the bottom nine all season.
Mackay is boosted by the news midfielder Don Cowie has recovered from a calf strain, while Rudy Gestede could also return, but winger Craig Conway is still out with ankle ligament damage.
Palace go into the game looking for a first win in nine to round off a season which will see them finish in their highest position in three seasons.
The Eagles did lose to Cardiff in the Carling Cup semi-finals earlier this year and will be looking for revenge, while boss Dougie Freedman will also remind his players that they did win the first leg 1-0 on home soil.
However, goalkeeper Julian Speroni has joined an already lengthy injury list after he dislocated a finger in the game against Reading last Saturday, while centre-back Paul McShane is absent with a hamstring injury.
Palace have not won on the final day in the past three years and have only defeated one of the top seven clubs this term.
Add to that the fact that the two sides, along with Middlesbrough, have drawn the most matches in the Championship this term and it all points to a stalemate which would be good enough to extend the Welsh outfit’s season.
Boro travel to face Watford at the same time and we feel that they should have enough to get the three points required (Boro 11/8 Away Win 90 Minutes), but will suffer the heartbreak of missing out on the play-offs courtesy of goal difference.
Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 12/5
Value Bet: Cardiff/ Draw HT/FT @ 16/1
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