Caution the Carling watch-word

Two defeats from three games in all competitions in January means Manchester City must get back on track against Liverpool in a Carling Cup semi-final first-leg clash at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday (Manchester City 5/6 Liverpool 6/4 – Carling Cup outright).

The ‘Martin O’Neill factor’ was in full force when Sunderland inflicted only a second defeat in the Premier League on Roberto Mancini’s men on New Year’s Day but normal service was resumed with a convincing 3-0 defeat over Wednesday’s opponents only last week.

Then the wheels came off in spectacular style against local rivals Manchester United in the FA Cup on Sunday, although Mancini took heart from a gutsy second-half performance which, in turn, exposed the frailties which could yet haunt Sir Alex Ferguson when the biggest prize on the domestic stage is handed out in May.

Now, the experienced Italian must galvanise his troops for the Carling Cup and the visit of Kenny Dalglish’s top-four hopefuls.

The demanding nature of two-legged ties means it could pay for punters to err on the side of caution in Manchester on Wednesday, while the visitors do not have to rush this fixture and team news is also pivotal.

Conversely, punters may argue any price just shy of evens about the Premier League leaders on home soil (City 20/21 draw 12/5 Liverpool 16/5 – first leg 90 minutes betting) is appealing.

Mancini could be without six senior professionals, including Kolo and Yaya Toure, who are on African Nations Cup duty with Ivory Coast, for the visit of the Merseysiders.

Edin Dzeko and Mario Balotelli are both major doubts, along with star midfielder David Silva, who was replaced at half-time in the derby on Sunday.

Goals have become a problem for Liverpool on the road and they failed to find the net against City last week and Wigan before, all of which lends itself to a low goals expectation in the first leg.

Craig Bellamy, who starred for Liverpool in the FA Cup win against Oldham last Friday, could make an appearance against his old club and the 32-year-old can backed at 9/4 (Anytime Goalscorer) or, for the value hawks, an even bigger 8/1 (Last Goalscorer), should he come off the bench.

The fiery Welshman, who left City in August on a free transfer and has scored six goals in eight starts and 10 substitute appearances so far this season, thought Liverpool were better than the scoreline suggested last week and is convinced they have more than a puncher’s chance.

“This is why you play for Liverpool and this is what it brings,” he said.

“It’s a two-legged match and we have to make sure we are still in the tie. We have the second leg at Anfield and this club knows all about two-legged games. If we can get it back to Anfield still very much in the tie we will have a great chance of getting to Wembley.”

City will find out ahead of the game whether their appeal over Vincent Kompany’s red card given against United in their FA Cup third-round clash on Sunday is successful.

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Palace to build on Carling Cup

Crystal Palace pulled off an amazing victory over Manchester United to reach the Carling Cup semi-finals on Wednesday night but return to the bread and butter of the Championship on Friday as Derby County come calling. Their recent form has been dismal so will the mid-week glory act as a catalyst for a league revival? (Palace Evens, Derby 9/4, draw 9/4 Match Prices).

The Red Devils made eight changes for the clash with the Eagles but Sir Alex Ferguson could not be accused of putting out a weak team as it still contained eight full internationals.

The simple fact is that Palace wanted it more and deservedly came away with the extra-time win at Old Trafford.

How boss Dougie Freedman would have loved his charges to put in the same kind of performance in the Championship over the past few weeks, as he has watched his men struggle and fail to win in five attempts (Palace 16/1 To Be Promoted).

The south Londoners’ last league victory was a 1-0 success away at Ipswich and they have since played out goalless draws with Reading, Portsmouth and Millwall, while suffering defeats to Leicester and Cardiff.

Scoring goals has clearly been the problem, especially at home, as the Palace faithful have witnessed the opposition net rippling on just eight occasions on their own patch, while they have scored 10 goals on their travels en route to 26 points and 12th place in the table.

Freedman has made his side hard to beat and the five goals they have conceded at home is second only to Birmingham in that category in the division.

But you have to score to win and that is something that needs to be addressed, otherwise a few 0-0 scorelines will start changing to 1-0 losses as the season progresses with the inevitable slide down the table.

Darren Ambrose and Glenn Murray scored the goals that dumped United out of the competition and the challenge now is for the pair to replicate that from in the league, to help out their team-mates at the back who have done such a stellar job this term.

The victory came at a cost however, as Dean Moxey (knee) and winger Sean Scannell (thigh) will both miss Friday’s encounter, while Wilfried Zaha was limping at the end of a gruelling 120 minutes and is rated as doubtful with just a 48-hour turnaround.

Derby had high hopes of either automatic promotion or a play-off place at least this term but the early-season optimism when they won four straight games to kick off their campaign has long since evaporated.

The Rams have lost six out of seven Championship games and five in a row and will travel to London desperate to halt their plunge down the standings.

They have conceded three goals in three of their past five games and it is obvious that they have serous problems with their defence.

Nigel Clough’s side has conceded 17 goals on the road this term and scored just nine and the statistics for both outfits suggest that a single goal might win this one.

John Brayford remains a fitness doubt for the visitors after sitting out Tuesday’s defeat to Brighton, having recently returned from a five-week lay-off.

Clough may opt for an unchanged side after admitting that he was pleased with the performance against the Seagulls despite the defeat.

With pressure mounting on the boss and the drop zone now just four points away, the former Liverpool striker would take a dismal display in the capital as long as he came away with there points.

Both sides are desperate for a win but Palace are tipped to sneak it by the odd goal to begin their climb up the table.

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Carling Cup reaches last eight

Tuesday sees the return of the Carling Cup, with three quarter-finals set to take place. For those fans of teams in blue it could be a good night as Chelsea, Manchester City and Cardiff all look poised to march on into the last four.

Arsenal v Manchester City 8pm

This match at the Emirates Stadium brings together two of the in-form teams in the country, with the Gunners looking to dent City’s hopes of total dominance. Both teams endured tough matches at the weekend, Arsenal putting a lot in to come from a goal down to draw with Fulham, while City hung on grimly to claim a point at Liverpool.

Both teams are likely to radically alter there respective line-ups, with Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger expected to rest top scorer Robin van Persie, along with Theo Walcott, Thomas Vermaelen and Alex Song. City boss Roberto Mancini will also make alterations, the difference being the players the Italian can bring in look far superior to the ones at Wenger’s disposal.

With City scoring goals from all over and Arsenal’s defence very leaky Tuesday’s match promises goals, with over 2.5 goals available at 4/6. The tie should be wrapped up by full-time so City at 11/8 looks to be the bet for this one.

Chelsea v Liverpool

These two clubs have made no secret of their lack of interest in the Carling Cup this season, Andre Villas-Boas missing Monday’s press conference before the game, while Kenny Dalglish said weeks ago he would be sending out a youthful looking line-up.

Dalglish has bemoaned the timing of the match, coming 48 hours after their barn-storming encounter against Manchester City. Much like Arsenal, Liverpool are likely to struggle if they get their second string involved given their lack of strength in depth. With Chelsea having had an extra day to recover and with a bigger squad at their disposal you’d expect Villas-Boas’ men to go through.

However, it is unlikely to be easy for the Blues and if you fancy them to reach to the semi-finals 4/11 to qualify, rather than to win in 90 minutes, might be your best bet. Elsewhere, with a tight game in prospect the draw HT/FT at 5/1 might be worth looking at.

Cardiff v Blackburn 7:45pm

Everything looks set for a cup upset at the Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday night, with the home side having won six of their last eight matches. Malky Mackay has done a great job in lifting the Bluebirds after more play-off heartache in May, their recent run propelling them up to third in the Championship.

In contrast to Cardiff’s fantastic run, Blackburn have continued to toil at the bottom of the Premier League, going down meekly at Stoke on Saturday. The weekend’s results leave Blackburn rooted to the foot of the league and Steve Kean will see this quarter-final tie as nothing more than a distraction in their fight against the drop.

Blackburn will do well to reach the semi-finals, given their current form, with Cardiff 6/4 to win the tie inside 90 minutes.

The Bluebirds recent good form has been helped by Peter Whittingham’s run of scoring in four out of the last five games.

The former Aston Villa winger is 9/4 to score again against Rovers.

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Tuesday’s Carling Cup Preview

There are three games in the secnd round of the Carling Cup on Tuesday evening as Paolo Di Canio’s Swindon host Southampton in the pick of the ties. Elsewhere League Two side Aldershot host Carlisle, while Bristol Rovers travel to League One club Leyton Orient.

Aldershot v Carlisle

Carlisle travel to the Recreation Ground in excellent form and must be backed at 7/5 to progress to the next round. Greg Abbott’s men are unbeaten since their opening-game defeat at home to Notts County and come into this game on the back of a good win away again Leyton Orient.

Abbott will resist the temptation to rest players in this fixture as he will hope to keep confidence high in the camp and the reward of a home fixture in the next round against fellow League One side Rochdale is on offer for the winner here.

Apart from their shock win at Upton Park against West Ham in the last round, the Shots have had an inauspicious start to the season. They have lost both of their home games in the league so far and would need to really step up their came if they are to overcome the Cumbrians.

Prediction: Carlise to beat Aldershot at 7/5.

Leyton Orient v Bristol Rovers

It’s been a miserable start to the season for Leyton Orient so far as they have failed to pick up a point from their opening five league games.

However, they can expect better luck in the cup as they host League Two flyers Bristol Rovers. Russell Slade will see the importance of a good cup run as critical to his club’s finances and the reward for winning this game is a trip to Ewood Park to face Premier League side Blackburn.

The O’s’ form will turn around at some point – this is a side who narrowly missed out on the play-offs in League One last season and often poor form in the league does not transpire into the cup.

The players will feel the pressure off their shoulders as there are no points on offer this time around.

Rovers, however, are not in the best form themselves. They were involved in a disappointing goalless draw at home to Hereford on Saturday and goals have been to come by for Paul Buckle’s men – they have scored just one in their three games.

It will be a tough place for the League Two side to go to and the smart money says they will just be narrowly denied in a close contest at the Matchroom Stadium.

Prediction: Leyton Orient to beat Bristol Rover at 11/10.

Swindon v Southampton

Paolo Di Canio will relish hosting Championship Southampton at the County Ground.

The former West Ham star will see a good cup run as a way of making a name for himself in the managerial game and will have his players fired up for the visit of Saints.

On the other hand, Nigel Atkins will be expected to rest a few of his star players going into this Carling Cup fixture as the push for promotion into the Premier League is his priority this season.

This should allow a full-strength Swindon side to hold the Saints to a draw after 90 minutes.

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Carling Cup previews

There are plenty of Carling Cup ties to get stuck into on Wednesday night with several Premier League teams in action. There will doubtless be many fringe players on view, and it will be a chance for the lesser lights to carry out a giant-killing act (totesport – Carling Cup).

Exeter City v Liverpool

The feel-good factor is back at Anfield after a period in the doldrums with ‘King’ Kenny once again at the helm.

The Merseysiders have spent millions of pounds to try to bring the good times back and look to have a squad capable of challenging for silverware.

While the Premier League may be beyond them at this stage of their rebuilding, cup competitions have always been important to the Anfield faithful and veteran defender Jamie Carragher has stated that they will be taking the Carling Cup seriously as it is a competition that they could realistically win.

With that in mind and a strong squad to choose from, the likes of Dirk Kuyt, Maxi Rodriguez and Raul Meireles could all feature against the Grecians, while several other squad players may get a run-out.

The League One outfit have garnered just one point from their four league outings to date but will see this as a chance to topple one of the biggest clubs in the world and should go into the clash with little or no fear.

But Liverpool are tipped to take care of the Devon club and maybe go all the way to Wembley this time around.

Odds: Exeter 7/1, Liverpool 2/5, draw 7/2

Everton v Sheffield United

In contrast to their rivals from across Stanley Park, Everton have little or no money to spend and have failed to bring in any new players over the summer months.

They have played just one Premier League match this season and went down 1-0 to new-boys Queens Park Rangers, despite dominating the game.

There appears to be an air of despondency hanging over Goodison Park at present and a good Carling Cup run could be just what the doctor ordered to lift the mood.

Manager David Moyes does not have the luxury of a big squad to choose from and so it is likely that several first-team regulars will be given an outing against the Yorkshire side.

Tim Cahill, Jermaine Beckford and Louis Saha are all doubtful for the second round tie, while the Scot will also have to do without Seamus Coleman, Magaye Gueye and Diniyar Bilyaletdinov.

The Blades have made an excellent start to their League One campaign with 10 points from their first four games and they will fancy their chances of an upset against an Everton side who are low on confidence.

United boss Danny Wilson has stated that he will try to win every cup game that the club plays in this term and not just focus on promotion back to the Championship.

Stephen Quinn will be given a late fitness test after a rough outing against Tranmere while Ryan Flynn and new signing Kevin McDonald may well return from injury.

Odds: Everton 4/9, Sheffield United 13/2, draw 100/30

Blackburn Rovers v Sheffield Wednesday

Blackburn are one of four Premier League clubs yet to gain a point this season after defeats to Wolves and Aston Villa and boss Steve Kean is already under pressure.

This is a game he could do without, as defeat in front of the Ewood Park faithful would have the fans and press calling for his head.

Rovers have been stretched by injuries just two games into the season and there will be a number of unfamiliar faces in the line-up as the Scot looks to rest some players for the weekend clash with Everton.

But he cannot afford to be too complacent as Wednesday have made a solid, if unspectacular, start to their League One campaign and are tipped for promotion back to the Championship.

Radosav Petrovic looks set to make his full debut and the tough-tackling Serb could be what the side needs to lift them back to winning ways.

Gel Givet is set to play alongside Grant Hanley in the centre of defence with Ryan Nelson given the night off to prepare for the weekend clash with Aston Villa.

Jason Lowe and Bruno Ribeiro could well feature in what has become a must-win clash for the north-west outfit.

Owls boss Gary Megson is set to ring the changes as on-loan winger Ben Marshall will be rested while skipper Rob Jones will also miss out despite recovering from a broken nose sustained in last week’s defeat to Bury.

Odds: Rovers 8/15, Sheffield Wednesday 5/1, draw 3/1

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Carling Cup Preview

The first round of the Carling Cup gets underway this week and there are two stand-out fixtures on Tuesday evening which sees local bragging rights up for grabs in addition to a place in round two as Leeds host Bradford and Nottingham Forest and Notts County go head-to-head at the City Ground.

Leeds United v Bradford City (7.45pm)

The West Yorkshire rivals will meet at Elland Road with Simon Grayson’s Whites hot favourites to progress given that they boast Championship status, while the Bantams are languishing in League Two these days.

Despite being near neighbours the two sides have only met on 13 previous occasions and Tuesday’s match will be the second League Cup clash, with Harry Kewell’s goal sealing a narrow third-round win the last time out.

Leeds have won the last four games between the two sides in all competitions with the most recent coming in the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy during the 2008/09 season when goals from Andy Robinson and Luciano Becchio secured a 2-1 success (7/1 – 2-1 Correct Score).

Leeds will have an extra incentive to secure a 10th win against Bradford on Tuesday after their lacklustre start to the season on Saturday when they went down 3-1 at Championship new boys Southampton.

However, Bradford boss Peter Jackson is determined to engineer a Cup upset (11/2 – Bradford Away 90 Minutes) to provide his players with a  springboard after they also lost their opening league game – 2-1 against Aldershot at Valley Parade.

City have only defeated Leeds once in their 13 meetings so far and that was after extra time in a Full Members’ Cup encounter way back in the 1986/87 season.

However, on the prospect of making it two, Jackson said: “It’s a big ask because they’re two divisions away and have spent millions on their team. I’ve got young kids that were free transfers – but we’ll go there with no fear.

“The pressure’s on them to do it but it’s important we go there and compete. There will be a shock in the Carling Cup and why not at Elland Road?”

We expect the Bantams to put up a good fight in this eagerly-awaited encounter, but with a crowd of over 20,000 expected – and the majority cheering on the Whites of Leeds – expect the hosts to edge through.

Prediction: Leeds Home 90 Minutes @ 4/9
Value Bet: Leeds 3-1 Correct Score @ 10/1

Nottingham Forest v Notts County (7.45pm)

Another huge derby encounter at the City Ground sees Steve McClaren’s Forest face Martin Allen’s Magpies in the two sides’ first meeting on the Red side of the River Trent since a Stan Collymore goal sealed a league win for Forest in October 1993.

Championship side Forest will hope home advantage will count in their favour – especially as their only other League Cup meeting ended in a 4-0 win (22/1 – Correct Score) at the City Ground back in October 1977.

Forest have also won four of their last five home games against County, with the other being a 1-1 draw (13/2 – Correct Score) in 1991/92.

However, Forest go into the game having been frustrated by Barnsley in their Championship curtain-raiser on Saturday with McClaren even admitting following the goalless draw that he does not yet have the attack in place to mount a promotion push.

Dutch winger Wesley Verhoek from ADO Den Haag and West Brom forward Ishmael Miller are set to come in, but Forest will struggle to get them on board in time for this game.

The Magpies are flying high after opening their League One campaign with a 3-0 win at Carlisle United and Allen feels he has assembled a squad that could banish the memory of last season’s relegation battle.

“There is a great team spirit here and that’s very pleasing,” he told BBC Radio Nottingham.

And as County bid for a first win on their rivals’ soil (9/2 – Away 90 Minutes) since a 2-0 success in January 1982, Allen played down their chances while the loss of striker Lee Hughes to a slight ankle knock could end any hopes they might have had of winning the tie.

“We’ll go over there to try to enjoy the occasion. It will be a hell of a shock if we were to get something,” Allen said.

Had Hughes been involved we could have predicted a tight game with the potential of an upset, but Forest should have enough to get through.

Prediction: Forest Home 90 Minutes @ 4/7
Value Bet: Forest 1-0 Correct Score @ 6/1

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Early start for Carling new boys

The new Football League campaign has not yet started but League Two new boys Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon have been called back early on Friday evening to scrap it out for a place in the first round of the Carling Cup.

The preliminary round has been hastily arranged in order to allow Carling Cup holders and newly-relegated Championship side Birmingham to start in the third round because of their Europa League commitments.

The Conference Premier champions Crawley have been handed home advantage at Broadfield Road and they will fancy their chances of progression into a tasty clash with Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park on August 8 in the first round proper should they go through.

However, AFC Wimbledon – a club spawned from the 1988 FA Cup winners after they upped sticks and moved to Milton Keynes – will want to mark their first ever match as a Football League club with a win (7/2 Away Win 90 Minutes) some 34 years after the original side entered the league.

Wimbledon entered the league via a play-off win against Luton Town, while Crawley were a Football League side in waiting last term as they romped to the title.

Boss Steve Evans is boosted by the fact that, with the exception of skipper Pablo Mills, who recently underwent an operation on his ankle, and Jamie Day, who is still recovering from injury, Crawley have a full strength squad to pick from for the tie.

Six players could make their debuts and Evans is looking for his men to send out a strong message to their League Two rivals through this match.

Crawley go into the match on the back of a good run from the end of last season with four wins and two draws in their last six while they defeated AFC Wimbledon 3-1 (12/1 Correct Score) in the Conference game at the same venue last term.

AFC Wimbledon have problems in the treatment room as new captain Jamie Stuart and midfielder Lee Minshull are struggling with respective back and dead leg problems, while defender Mat Mitchel-King is out with glandular fever and fellow new signings Gareth Gwillim and Charles Ademeno are doubts with respective shoulder and heel injuries.

They also go into the clash against their rivals in good form with a record of four wins and two draws from their last six games.

However, with a slightly stronger side and home advantage afforded to Crawley Town it is difficult to see any other outcome than a victory for the Reds.

Prediction: Crawley To Win 90 Minutes @ 8/13
Value bet: Crawley To Win 2-1 Correct Score @ 7/1

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