England

Roy Hodgson’s men comfortably put five past Moldova away from home in their opening group clash before being held by Ukraine at Wembley so it could be that qualification goes down to goal difference and goals scored in what is already looking like a tight group.

England (2/5 Group H winner) will be aware that current group leaders Montenegro stuck six past San Marino in their own backyard so it is no surprise that they are 1/100 to come out on top on Friday evening.

However, the real value will be looking at the correct score and anytime goal scorer markets as the Three Lions will no doubt tear into their opposition, who are officially ranked as the joint-worst team in the world by FIFA.

They have lost their last 19 competitive matches ‘to nil’, conceding 101 goals in the process, an average of just over five per game so expect the San Marino net to ripple on numerous occasions during this match.

Hodgson does have injury and suspension problems to contend with going into the match as captain Steven Gerrard is suspended following his red card for two bookings in the Ukraine clash, Glen Johnson is also banned while Frank Lampard and Ryan Bertrand have joined Kieran Gibbs on the sidelines having withdrawn from the squad on Thursday because of respective knee and illness issues.

But, that should not have a detrimental impact on the outcome of this match as it will be one-way traffic throughout.

Looking at potential score-lines and England have not scored six since the 6-0 drubbing of Andorra in 2009, while their last seven-goal haul came against San Marino in Graham Taylor’s last game in charge when the Three Lions recovered from falling behind to an early goal to win 7-1 in late 1993.

Punters who feel England are not prolific in games against teams of San Marino’s stature might fancy 6/1 for 6-0 in the Correct Score market, while those fancying a double figures haul can get 20/1 for a 10-0 rout.

In the anytime scoring market it is better to steer clear of the likes of Wayne Rooney and Jermain Defoe, both currently 1/5, and look to the defensive players.

Kyle Walker, who will deputise for Johnson and is always liable to bomb forward down the right flank is 7/2 to find the net and left-back Ashley Cole can be backed at a tidy 9/2 to make amends for his recent Twitter outburst and grab a first goal for his country while collecting his 99th cap.

If set-piece and penalty specialist Leighton Baines is given the nod over Cole on the left side of defence with one eye on the game in Poland on Tuesday, he can be backed at 7/4 in the anytime goalscorer market.

Value Bet: England 8-0 Correct Score @ 10/1

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England

In stark contrast to major tournaments in previous years, England travelled to Poland and the Ukraine with low expectations among players, management and supporters.

Thanks to the ‘golden generation’ being on the wane, a raft of injuries decimating the squad, Wayne Rooney’s two-match suspension and boss Roy Hodgson’s late appointment, the Three Lions were considered one of the outsiders for the competition, with qualifying from the group seen as an achievement.

However, England have not only managed to make it to the knock-out stages, but they did so as group winners, avoiding world and European champions Spain in the quarter-finals as a result.

The triumph in Group D was based on defensive solidity and organisation, with their 1-1 opening game draw against France giving them the perfect platform.

But it hasn’t all been about defending; they also showed tremendous spirit to come from behind against Sweden, while their victory over Ukraine was laced with a sprinkling of good luck – all factors required to be successful in a major tournament. It is little wonder, then, that England fans are dreaming again.

Their outright odds have gone in to 8/1 as a result, with many believing the squad is at its most unified in years.

However, to be within a chance of competing for a first European crown England must first do what they haven’t done for 14 years – beat Italy.

Indeed, before we all get too excited it needs to be noted that England have never beaten a major footballing nation in a knock-out game on foreign soil. So Cesare Prandelli’s side – World champions just five years ago – represent a significant challenge.

Their build-up to the tournament was once again tainted by allegations of match-fixing in the domestic game, with police even raiding the team’s training camp.

The last time such scandal engulfed Italian football, the national team went all the way to World Cup glory. There appears to be a similar determination to improve the image of the Italian game among the players this time around (Italy 8/1 Euro 2012 outright).

They were placed in a tough-looking Group C alongside Spain, Croatia and Ireland. A credible 1-1 draw with Spain was followed up with the same scoreline against Croatia before a comfortable 2-0 win against Ireland sealed their progress as group runners-up.

Like England their game is based on being tight defensively, so it is not surprising therefore that the odds for under 2.5 goals is a popular choice at 1/2 while 1 goals or less is temptingly priced at 17/10.

It is believed Hodgson will stick with the same starting XI that began against Ukraine on Tuesday, meaning Wayne Rooney and Danny Welbeck will start up front.

Rooney made a goalscoring entrance to the competition with the only goal of the game against the co-hosts – his first at a major tournament since 2004 – and he is unsurprisingly 5/1 favourite to score first for England on Sunday.

Skipper Steven Gerrard, who may also be the team’s primary penalty taker (though Rooney may have something to say about that), is also worth considering at 9/1.

For Italy, much of the pre-match hype has surrounded the enigmatic Mario Balotelli. The Manchester City forward can produce the sublime or the ridiculous so he has to be considered at 13/2 to score first.

However, he isn’t guaranteed to start, with Udinese forward Antonio Di Natalie – a less controversial striking option – in contention. The 34-year-old is 6/1 to open the scoring.

The magnificent Andrea Pirlo acts as Italy’s heartbeat in midfield and will need to be watched closely by the England backline. He scored a wonderful free-kick against Croatia in the group stages and is certain to be a danger from set-pieces again – you can get odds of 12/1 on the Juventus man netting first.

With such a huge prize on offer the key to this game could be who manages to hold their nerve. With both sides priding themselves on keeping things tight at the back, goals should be hard to come by here.

If England are to progress, 1-0 priced at 6/1 would be a wise choice, although with talk of a penalty shoot-out, a goalless draw after 90 minutes is also worth considering at 11/2.

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England

The permutations of England’s game in Donestk on Tuesday are fairly simple: avoid defeat and reach the quarter-finals, bettering the expectations of some supporters. Loss and come home early with your tails between your legs again.

While the two performances by the Three Lions to date have been far from convincing they have produced the necessary results and that is all that matters at this point.

Whether we will see a return to a cautious approach by England in the last group game is up for debate, Hodgson keeping his cards close to his chest when it comes to his plans for Ukraine. The England coach is more than likely going to restore Wayne Rooney to his starting XI for the game, meaning either Danny Welbeck or Andy Carroll will drop to the bench.

Both players performed well against Sweden and Hodgson will have to weigh up whether he wants the physical presence of Carroll or the pace and trickier of Welbeck. Either way, Rooney is likely to play just off whoever starts up front and should make the difference against the co-hosts.

No doubt it will be a hostile atmosphere in Donestk but England came through something similar on Friday when the Swedes outnumbered the English 3-to-1 in Kiev. The Three Lions have the edge in terms of history as well, winning three out of the four meetings. However, they did lose their most recent clash against Ukraine in 2010 in a World Cup qualifier.

The Ukraines are 5/2 to secure the three points they need to make it through to the next round, with a repeat of their 1-0 win over England two years ago priced at 9/1. Hodgsons team are 6/5 and the draw 9/4 (match betting).

The draw seems like the most likely outcome in this one, especially with Ukraine’s main threat Andriy Shevchenko a doubt for the game. Some critics may say England lack strength in depth but the fact the Ukrainians are still relying on 35-year-old Shevchenko to get the goals speaks volumes about the state of their team.

The former Chelsea man has scored all of his nation’s goals in the tournament thus far and without him you struggle to see Ukraine getting more than one, even with England’s issues with set pieces.

Rooney is bound to want to prove a point and as such you’d fancy him to pop up with a goal. The Manchester United striker is 13/8 to score anytime and 9/2 to break the deadlock first. It seems to be inevitable that game will be an ugly contest given the lack of skill both teams possess. However, Rooney could prove to be the one bit of quality England need to edge it.

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Regardless of the lack of expectation around the country before the tournament, England will still be criticised if they fail to make the last eight, something new boss Roy Hodgson is fully aware of.

Hodgson, who led England to consecutive 1-0 victories in his first two games in charge, was quoted as saying “it could be the most terrific three weeks or the most torrid of my career” ahead of Monday’s clash at the Donbass Arena.

Much of England’s build up has been overshadowed by the Rio Ferdinand saga. The Manchester United defender’s omission from the squad has received plenty of media coverage, with many experts miffed by the decision.

Hodgson has defended his call, saying he has plenty of options in central defence and would not take Ferdinand to Poland and Ukraine to be a bit-part player.

The show must go on without the 33-year-old, as well as the likes of Frank Lampard and Gareth Barry. Wayne Rooney will, of course, miss the first two games as well, leaving Hodgson without a whole host of stars for the France clash.

The England chief will pin his attacking hopes on Ashley Young and captain Steven Gerrard, the man who got England’s 2010 World Cup campaign off to a flyer when he scored early on against USA although the match ended in a 1-1 draw (Euro 2012 outright 12/1).

Much has changed since the debacle in South Africa, with Young one of the most promising players to emerge in the past two years. He has hit five goals in his last seven games and will be England’s main attacking threat in the opener (First Goalscorer 8/1).

France go into the game unbeaten in 21 internationals but do have defensive frailties. Those weaknesses were on display during their final warm-up match against Estonia last week, despite their 4-0 victory.

Add to that France’s recent record in tournaments and England have a real chance. It has been a case of all or nothing for Les Bleus in recent years.

Since winning the World Cup and European Championship back-to-back in 1998 and 2000, France have failed to qualify from the group stage three times but reached the World Cup final in 2006 and the quarters at Euro 2004.

It is fair to say, however, France are a different proposition under Laurent Blanc. During their 21-game unbeaten run they have won 15, including victories over Brazil, Germany and England (Euro 2012 outright France 8/1).

Bayern Munich winger Franck Ribery and Real Madrid striker Karim Benzema are France’s main threats going forward but concentrate on those two at your peril.

Fans of the Premier League will be familiar with Samir Nasri and Yohan Cabaye, while 21-year-old Yann M’Vila, if fit, could be one of the stars of the tournament.

England will no doubt sit back and let France do all the running, hoping to hit Blanc’s men on the break. It is a dangerous tactic but one England need to employ in the opener if they are to get their tournament up and running with a win.

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International friendlies

England have not exactly set themselves up for a good showing in Poland and Ukraine – and not just because the Three Lions always fail at major tournaments – with the manager resigning ahead of the tournament as his captain was relieved of the armband (and will not be getting it back) while arguably the best player, Wayne Rooney, will be missing for two of three group games.

It does not look an ideal situation for anyone but the identity of the men who will be leading the side, both manager and captain, remains to be seen – and there are just three friendlies to sort things out.

Stuart Pearce has been given the immediate task of filling Fabio Capello’s boots with his current remit to oversee the friendly against Holland, while Harry Redknapp appears to be everyone’s choice to become the next permanent manager.

It will be no easy task for Pearce on Wednesday against the side ranked third in the world although the World Cup finalists are only marginal favourites in the match betting at 13/8, with England on offer at 7/4 and the draw priced up at 11/5.

Recent history suggests there is little to choose between the two sides as the last four matches – all friendlies – have ended all square, with Holland triumphing 2-0 at Wembley in 2002 in the most recent positive result.

England have won five and lost four of the 18 meetings between the two countries with nine ending in draws – and in the middle of a season will either side be busting a gut to get the victory?

As is the nature of friendlies these days, there is also the problem of withdrawals to deal with as Pearce has seen Rooney, Kyle Walker, Darren Bent and Tom Cleverley pull out of his first, and possibly only, squad.

The big-hitting trio of Rafael van der Vaart, Wesley Sneijder and Arjen Robben have all had their injury problems so both sides may well field less than full strength line-ups.

England endured a dismal World Cup campaign but Capello successfully managed to guide the side to the Euro finals, something they did not achieve four years ago, relatively comfortably.

The Italian noted England’s faltering abilities at Wembley but the team goes into Wednesday’s encounter on the back of a nine-match unbeaten run, winning the last three matches at home.

Even reigning world and European champions Spain have been beaten in that time, albeit in a backs-to-the-wall kind of fashion, so the hosts have at least proved they can be hard to beat.

Holland cruised to the finals on the back of nine wins in Group E and only surrendered their 100 percent record in the last game of the qualifying campaign in Sweden.

Robin van Persie has been in sensational form this season and is an obvious threat and unsurprising favourite at 9/2 in the First/Last Goalscorer betting, while he is priced at 2/1 to bag anytime.

He has enjoyed huge success against English defences and must be considered, given the inexperience in the home side’s backline, which has to cope without both John Terry and Rio Ferdinand.

Pearce does not have too much experience up front either following Rooney’s withdrawal but Daniel Sturridge and Danny Welbeck (both 6/1 – First Goalscorer) have both impressed this season, while Theo Walcott’s (10/1) fine brace for Arsenal made a mockery of recent criticism.

Steven Gerrard also looks worthy of consideration at 7/1 First/Last Goalscorer and 7/2 Anytime as he is expected to lead the side and thrives on the extra responsibility.

It is difficult seeing it being a free-flowing, attack-minded game, particularly with Pearce not wanting to harm his chances of permanent appointment with a big defeat, so expect a tight contest.

However, Capello’s former assistant might boost his chances of success if he gets the players confident wearing the shirt and looking like they enjoy playing for their country, which does not appear to have been the case for some time.

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Big spending Manchester City head the outright betting at 5/1 for Europa League glory in Bucharest in May, which is hardly a surprise given the riches at manager Roberto Mancini’s disposal.

However, the question is how seriously will the Premier League leaders be taking this competition, given the way their season has gone so far.

When they were banging in goals for fun and thumping title challengers Manchester United and Spurs away, the talk was about winning every competition they were in.

However, they have been knocked out of the Champions League at the first opportunity, albeit from a tough looking group, were knocked out of the FA Cup (again as early as possible) while they fell at the semi-final stage in the Carling Cup.

Despite a magnificent start to the Premier League campaign, the Citizens have not run away with it as yet, particularly as they have been far from consistent in 2012.

Mancini’s men take on defending champions FC Porto in the first leg of their last-32 clash at the Estadio do Dragao on Thursday, with the Portuguese giants as, if not more, disappointed that they failed to make it further in the Champions League.

Porto’s home form was the principal reason for their failure to get out of Group G, just one win and two draws to finish behind APOEL FC and Zenit St Petersburg.

This is perhaps reflected in the match betting with both sides available at 13/8 to take a first-leg advantage, while the draw is on offer at 23/10.

Mancini will have the Toure brothers back from African Nations Cup duty to bolster the ranks, while Mario Balotelli is available despite his domestic ban.

But whether the Italian tactician decides to go with his fringe players remains to be seen, although his squad is arguably the strongest in Europe.

However, indifferent away form has been the problem of late and Porto are likely to go all out for the win to maintain the defence of their trophy, with Hulk (6/1 First/Last Goalscorer) leading the charge up front.

United, 7/1 outright second favourites, have named a strong-looking squad as they make their bow in Europe’s second tier competition, although Ryan Giggs, Dimitar Berbatov and Patrice Evra have been left at home.

The Red Devils did not appear to have the toughest of groups in the Champions League but still failed to progress with a 2-1 defeat in Basel condemning them to a place in the Europa League.

Sir Alex Ferguson’s men take on another Champions League drop-out, although Ajax were far from disgraced in their failure to progress, only losing out on goal difference to Lyon in a group which also included Real Madrid.

The betting suggests that this is a foregone conclusion with United odds on favourites at 5/6 to win at the Amsterdam Arena, with Ajax available at 10/3 and the draw at 5/2.

United have improved their form of late to remain in Premier League contention but it is still taking something of a chance backing them at the prices, given only one away victory in Europe this year – and that was 2-0 at group whipping boys Otelul Galati.

Ajax are not the force they once were but, with the draw of United, the players will no doubt be up for this one and it is set to be a tight affair.

Stoke have surprised a few in getting this far and their reward is a tough draw against Spanish giants Valencia, who consolidated third place in La Liga with a 4-0 demotion of Sporting Gijon.

Stoke’s form has been poor of late, losing their last three games, but they did enjoy dominance at the Britannia in Europe before Christmas, winning two and drawing one in Group E.

Valencia’s form on their travels in the Champions League cost them progression but they have enjoyed previous success in this competition and, as the third best side in Spain, obviously are no mugs.

It will be a real contrast of styles and although Valencia have been installed as the 6/4 favourites in the match betting, Stoke (7/4) can take something into the second leg – albeit a draw, priced at 23/10.

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England

The Italian has gone after a fall-out over the decision to strip John Terry of the captaincy last week, with the Chelsea skipper facing a trial over alleged racist comments made to QPR’s Anton Ferdinand earlier in the season.

The FA must now find a man to prepare the Three Lions for the European Championships and also the programme of international friendlies ahead of the showpiece tournament in Poland and Ukraine this summer.

An FA statement confirming Capello’s resignation was issued by the FA on Wednesday evening.

It read: “The Football Association can confirm that Fabio Capello has today resigned as England Manager.

“This follows a meeting involving FA Chairman David Bernstein, FA General Secretary Alex Horne and Fabio Capello at Wembley Stadium.

“The discussions focused on The FA Board’s decision to remove the England team captaincy from John Terry, and Fabio Capello’s response through an Italian broadcast interview.

“In a meeting for over an hour, Fabio’s resignation was accepted and he will leave the post of England Manager with immediate effect.”

Spain are the current 9/4 favourites to win Euro 2012.

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For many England supporters Saturday night might have been a bittersweet one. While the result and some aspects of the performance will give those who follow the Three Lions hope, there will be others who point to the flaws in their performance. Spain controlled the game from minute one and to see an England side dominated so much at Wembley might have come as a shock to those supporters still living on former glories.

The result papers over the cracks somewhat but Fabio Capello will hope beating the reigning world and European champions will give his England side the confidence boost they need to kick on. The only worry might be England becoming over confident thanks to the win and looking beyond a dangerous Sweden team.

Erik Hamren’s men qualified for Euro 2012 as the best runners-up from the group stage, finishing behind the Netherlands. The Swedes were the only team to take points off the Dutch, beating them 3-2 as they ended up with 24 points from a possible 30 in qualification.

Hamren has a decent squad at his disposal as well, lead by the mercurial Zlatan Ibrahimovic. The AC Milan striker blows hot and cold but when on form can be unplayable and is 15/8 to score at anytime. He should be supported by the likes of Sebastian Larsson, Kim Kallstrom, Johan Elmander and Ola Toivonen. While it isn’t the strongest Sweden squad ever assembled they should have enough to test England.

Capello has admitted he will make eight changes to his starting XI from the one that beat Spain, with Daniel Sturridge (9/2 first goalscorer), Bobby Zamora (9/2), Jack Rodwell, Danny Welbeck (4/1), Kyle Walker and Scott Carson all in the frame. Capello proved on Saturday that you can mix and match when it comes to your team selection but throwing so many youngsters into the fray could prove to be a mistake.

England fans will certainly expect a more open game on Tuesday, Capello admitting he had to play defensively against Spain given their quality. A more open game could suit both sides, with Sweden having failed to score on Saturday for the first time in 11 matches as they lost to Denmark 2-0.

The Swedes will hope they can raise their game for the clash with England, a fixture they have traditionally done well in having not tasted defeat since 1968. The last time the two nations met was in the group stages of the 2006 World Cup, Steven Gerrard and Joe Cole with the goals for England in the 2-2 draw.

The draw at 13/5 might be the result to go for if history is to repeat itself, with eight of the last 12 matches between the two countries having ended all square. England will be expected to win but Sweden have proven they have the Three Lions’ number over the years and could do so once again.

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The last time the two teams met was in the summer when England came out 2-0 victors in Southampton as they prepared for their ill-fated Euro 2011 campaign and they’ll be looking for a similar result this time around.

Pearce’s youngsters will go into the game in fine spirits after their superb 3-0 win in Iceland on Thursday and know an away victory in Norway could go a long way to them qualifying for the European Championships to be held in Israel in 2013.

The star of the show last time out was undoubtedly Arsenal winger Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, who after a good start to his Emirates career netted a hat-trick to seal the victory. Much is expected of the youngster who is still only 18 and he’ll be looking to make a big impact once again after it was mooted he could be called-up to the full squad if he continues to impress.

The one downside of England’s win on Thursday was the number of injuries picked-up and the likes of Martin Kelly and Nathan Delfouneso have all been ruled out of Monday’s clash.

However, this only means another player will get a chance and it’s more than likely that West Brom youngster Craig Dawson will be drafted into the centre of defence in Kelly’s absence and he’ll be looking to make a big impact after being left on the bench in Reykjavik. Dawson is a powerful player so look out for him in the air, especially from set pieces.

However, Norway (16/5 to win) have more than enough ability to trouble the Young Lions and will be excited about the prospect of causing what would be a major shock.

Pivotal to them will be Manchester United youngster Joshua King, who is currently on loan at German side Borussia Mönchengladbach. King is certainly one to look out for and his pace and movement can cause even the best defences problems.

Another man to look out for is Celtic defender Thomas Rogne who many believe will go on to be one of Europe’s top centre-backs. Tall and elegant, Rogne makes defending look easy and the England forwards will certainly have trouble getting past him.

Another thing to mention is the pitch. Monday’s clash will be the first time England have played on an artificial 4G pitch and this could cause them a number of problems. The slickness of the surface could take them a while to adjust to which may let the Norwegians in early on and could present them with an uphill challenge (Norway 13/2 to be leading at half-time and go onto win).

The game has all the ingredients of a classic but I feel that England’s greater quality should just see them shade it but it’ll be tight (England 5/1 to win 1-0).

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England have a six-point advantage at the top of Group G and know a point in Podgorica (Montenegro 9/2, Draw 23/10, England 8/11 – Match Betting) will be good enough to seal top spot. Defeat and victory for Montenegro in their final group game in Switzerland will leave England facing the prospect of a two-legged play-off.

This is likely to be their toughest game of the group so far, against a side that frustrated England at Wembley and claimed a 0-0 draw. That result highlighted their ability to defend, but the jury is out on whether they have the attacking threat to cause problems at the other end of the pitch.

The home side have conceded just three goals in six qualifying games to date, but just five goals scored tells its own story. Montenegro (20/1 to win Group G) are unbeaten in their three previous home matches in this group, although they did slip up in their 1-1 draw with Bulgaria.

They have also scored just once in each of those matches and England will be the toughest backline that they will have faced in this group. Capello insists that England won’t go there looking for a draw, but the visitors do have that as a cushion if needs be. But England (9/1 Euro 2012 Outright) have the firepower to kill off any hopes Montenegro still harbour of automatic qualification.

The major plus for England is that this game is away from home, bearing in mind their performances have been better on the road. Scoring eight goals in their three away games, the Three Lions have been impressive in victory in Switzerland, Bulgaria and Wales.

The players have recently admitted that they feel extra pressure from playing at Wembley. The tension that would have come across from the home crowd will be replaced by a positive vocal support in Podgorica.

Even with a couple of injuries, England have the luxury of bringing in young players with Premier League experience. Manchester United duo Danny Welbeck (11/8 To Score At Anytime) and Phil Jones are tipped to feature, while Scott Parker is expected to start the midfield after consistently impressive displays for Tottenham.

Montenegro midfielder Marko Cetkovic has described this as the “biggest game ever” for his country, but it looks likely to be the visitors who will be celebrating come the final whistle.

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