England are bidding to reach the semi-final of a major tournament for the first time in 16 years when they take on Italy in the big Euro 2012 quarter-final on Sunday (England 9/5 draw 2/1 Italy 9/5 – 90 minutes match prices) But can they do it?
In stark contrast to major tournaments in previous years, England travelled to Poland and the Ukraine with low expectations among players, management and supporters.
Thanks to the ‘golden generation’ being on the wane, a raft of injuries decimating the squad, Wayne Rooney’s two-match suspension and boss Roy Hodgson’s late appointment, the Three Lions were considered one of the outsiders for the competition, with qualifying from the group seen as an achievement.
However, England have not only managed to make it to the knock-out stages, but they did so as group winners, avoiding world and European champions Spain in the quarter-finals as a result.
The triumph in Group D was based on defensive solidity and organisation, with their 1-1 opening game draw against France giving them the perfect platform.
But it hasn’t all been about defending; they also showed tremendous spirit to come from behind against Sweden, while their victory over Ukraine was laced with a sprinkling of good luck – all factors required to be successful in a major tournament. It is little wonder, then, that England fans are dreaming again.
Their outright odds have gone in to 8/1 as a result, with many believing the squad is at its most unified in years.
However, to be within a chance of competing for a first European crown England must first do what they haven’t done for 14 years – beat Italy.
Indeed, before we all get too excited it needs to be noted that England have never beaten a major footballing nation in a knock-out game on foreign soil. So Cesare Prandelli’s side – World champions just five years ago – represent a significant challenge.
Their build-up to the tournament was once again tainted by allegations of match-fixing in the domestic game, with police even raiding the team’s training camp.
The last time such scandal engulfed Italian football, the national team went all the way to World Cup glory. There appears to be a similar determination to improve the image of the Italian game among the players this time around (Italy 8/1 Euro 2012 outright).
They were placed in a tough-looking Group C alongside Spain, Croatia and Ireland. A credible 1-1 draw with Spain was followed up with the same scoreline against Croatia before a comfortable 2-0 win against Ireland sealed their progress as group runners-up.
Like England their game is based on being tight defensively, so it is not surprising therefore that the odds for under 2.5 goals is a popular choice at 1/2 while 1 goals or less is temptingly priced at 17/10.
It is believed Hodgson will stick with the same starting XI that began against Ukraine on Tuesday, meaning Wayne Rooney and Danny Welbeck will start up front.
Rooney made a goalscoring entrance to the competition with the only goal of the game against the co-hosts – his first at a major tournament since 2004 – and he is unsurprisingly 5/1 favourite to score first for England on Sunday.
Skipper Steven Gerrard, who may also be the team’s primary penalty taker (though Rooney may have something to say about that), is also worth considering at 9/1.
For Italy, much of the pre-match hype has surrounded the enigmatic Mario Balotelli. The Manchester City forward can produce the sublime or the ridiculous so he has to be considered at 13/2 to score first.
However, he isn’t guaranteed to start, with Udinese forward Antonio Di Natalie – a less controversial striking option – in contention. The 34-year-old is 6/1 to open the scoring.
The magnificent Andrea Pirlo acts as Italy’s heartbeat in midfield and will need to be watched closely by the England backline. He scored a wonderful free-kick against Croatia in the group stages and is certain to be a danger from set-pieces again – you can get odds of 12/1 on the Juventus man netting first.
With such a huge prize on offer the key to this game could be who manages to hold their nerve. With both sides priding themselves on keeping things tight at the back, goals should be hard to come by here.
If England are to progress, 1-0 priced at 6/1 would be a wise choice, although with talk of a penalty shoot-out, a goalless draw after 90 minutes is also worth considering at 11/2.
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