Given that Barcelona won only 12 times in 74 years away to Real Madrid until 2003 it will come as a shock to the unwary, and the stuff of nightmares to Florentino Pérez, that Madrid have won only five of the last 17 Clásicos at the Bernabéu.

Without wishing to ignore Ronaldinho or Etoo, this is testimony to what the era of Xavi, Iniesta, Puyol, Victor Valdés Messi and Piqué has been like. Strong, talented, unquenchably hungry. But also, centrally, an era where Barcelona have largely dominated possession and Madrid, if their opponents are on form, become positionally ragged.

It’s not the end, yet, but it’s the beginning of the end. Valdés and Puyol are gone. A few weeks ago Xavi would have been an outsider to start based on Luis Enrique’s extremely sparing use of the midfielder. Piqué admitted to me this week that he’s facing the biggest challenge of his career right now. The challenge to keep his place.

These last ten years have seen 33 Clasicos – in La Liga, La Copa, the Supercopa and the Chamipons League. At the Santiago Bernabeu, at the Camp Nou, at La Mestalla.

These behemoth matches have gifted us 112 goals – almost three and a half per game.

At which point I think it’s fair to look at the credentials of the two sides as they approach this particular Clásico. In theory it’s irresistable force v immoveable object.

Madrid [for which read Cristiano Ronaldo] are scoring at an unparalleled rate. Forty three times this season they’ve hit the net [all comps] while ‘immoveable’ Barça [for which read Claudio Bravo] have yet to concede a goal in La Liga.

Put it all together and the ten year, 112 goal stat tells you that more often it’s the force which is irresistible and the object which is moveable. There have only been ten clean sheets in the last 33 meetings between the sides [in fact only 7 scoreless draws since 1928, and there will NOT be one on Saturday]

Which somewhat puts the focus on one of the battles featuring a Clasico debutant this weekend. Claudio Bravo. Excellent so far this season he’s been only partly responsible for the zero goals conceded given that Barcelona have been pressing like Italian farmers during the olive harvest. But he’s produced several key saves.
Something which has been in short supply in his previous meetings with either Real Madrid or Ronaldo.

A Bravo Decision

Since his debut in 2006 Bravo has:
Played Madrid ten times.
LOST nine
CONCEDED thirty
CONCEDED AWAY fourteen
CONCEDED TO CR7 ten goals in six meetings
WON never.

Doesn’t mean that the horrific run can’t end now that he’s with Barcelona .. but it’s a nasty, nagging thought to carry with you into enemy territory.
His tormentor, Ronaldo took eleven games to score two goals v Barça … and has eleven in thirteen thereafter.

Does Suárez start. Instinct says yes. Football’s conservatism tells you no. The Barcelona players all say he’s ripping it up in training. Luis Enrique seems enchanted with him. He scored two against England in his penultimate competitive match not long after having a surgeon hack about in his knee. He’s remarkable.

But for how long would he last, stamina-wise? Did Pedro do enough against Ajax to correct the impression that he’s been out of form this season.

For Madrid how much does Bale’s absence matter? It’s remarkable that the only Clásico they won last season, the Cup final, was without Ronaldo. That Bale gallop and goal will live long in the memory but won’t be repeated this weekend.

Messi ripped Madrid up again last season – scoring two penalties. An art at which he’s looked increasingly jittery since. Iniesta got the other goal in that stunning 3-4 Barcelona win – he, too, has had an underwhelming season until playing blisteringly well against Ajax.

Worth backing ‘anytime’ are Isco, in his best form at Madrid and very capable of scoring, Benzema who had two in this fixture last season, laid on the opening goal in the Cup final and rocketed a shot off the bar in the Camp Nou Clásico, and Neymar.

In the league last season, only he had as much influence as Messi in Clásicos scoring one, making two and winning a penalty. This season he’s been muscular, quick and much more focussed.

For the ‘over three goals’ mob, I agree. Final score 2-2, Neymar and Benzema, Messi and Isco to feature on the scoresheet.

• Real Madrid 7/5, Barcelona 15/8, Draw 5/2: Bet Now

Valencia v Elche, Saturday 7pm

Right, quiz question. You are betting in play, Elche get a penalty against Valencia – what’s gonna happen?

First of all, so long as he’s not been injured or red carded Edu Albacar will take it. His career stat is thirteen out of thirteen converted. “I know there’s likely to be a day when I miss but I want to be able to retire with the boast that I scored every penalty I took”.

In this instance there’s a little bit more of the old ‘irresistable force, immoveable object’.

Diego Alves, recalled to the Brazil squad this week, is back for Valencia having missed the defeat in la Coruña with gastroenteritis. Alves has saved 16 of the 35 penalties he’s faced in Spanish football. Taking into account the couple which have also gone wide or hit the woodwork the stats say that if you face Alves it’s about 50/50 whether you score or not.

Alvaro Negredo is fit again but only makes the bench. Valencia missed their young Portuguese midfielder André Gomes dramatically in that loss to Depo and his return should be influential. Each team won the home version of this match last season – Valencia will do so again this.

• Valencia 4/11, Elche 17/2, Draw 7/2: Bet Now

Sevilla v Villarreal, Sunday 6pm

Last time these two teams met here there was a bit of the ‘after you Claude’ feel to the match. Sevilla had the Europa League final in view and Villarreal just needed one point to clinch a return to Uefa competition in their first season after promotion back to La Liga. There was pretty football but few chances, almost no tackles and not a single booking – after the previous two encounters had yielded fifteen yellows and two reds.

Europe was on the agenda this week and it might give the narrowest edge to a strong Villarreal away performance. They were at home while thrashing Zurich 4-1 while Sevilla had to fight out a draining 0-0 draw at Standard Liege. The Yellow Submarine more rested as a result – it’s a narrow call. Both Mbia, who should start, and Kevin Gameiro, who’s still finding match tempo after five months out but who should come on in the second half [he has a goal and a shot off the post in his two comeback matches] look nice for a ‘goal anytime’. For Villarreal Gio Dos Santos is the obvious candidate for a goal against the club who helped him kickstart his career after his nightmare at Spurs. Bruno Soriano too, ‘who should definitely be playing for Spain’ according to his manager, Marcelino, is in fine form and might be worth a punt.

• Sevilla 21/20, Villareal 5/2, Draw 5/2: Bet Now

Getafe v Atlético Madrid, Sunday 8pm

In theory this should be meat and drink to the Spanish champions. Off the back of potentially their best performance of the season, even including two wins over Madrid, and a short trundle across the Spanish capital to face a team which is neither their footballing nor their physical equal. But Geta’s aggressive Romanian coach Cosmin ‘Don’t You Dare Take A Bad Performance Back Into MY Dressing Rom’ Contra doesn’t agree with me.

“They are under the pressure of having to win all the time to fight to retain their title. “We just want to make it tough for the champions. “See if they have a bad day and we have a good one. “They played differently last season, they’ve brought in 12 new guys and they are still adapting. “They aren’t the same as they were last year”.

Which is just as well given that Getafe lost 9-0 on aggregate to Atleti last year.

For los Rojiblancos the fact that Griezmann finally got a goal having hit the bar, the post, defenders and some invisible forcefield for weeks when shooting at goal might release some of his anxiety and you’d not bet against him adding another. If after his two cracking goals in a minute for Geta to win at the Anoeta on Monday you fancy Abdoul Yoda to repeat the feat just remember that two is the magic number. The most he’s ever scored in a season for Servette Sion or Astra Giurgiu before moving to Madrid. In fact he has ten in all matches since July 2008. So good luck with that.

• Getafe 6/1, Atletico Madrid 8/15, Draw 11/4: Bet Now

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Spurs

Villas-Boas has made no secret of his desire to go all the way in the competition and has named strong sides for both games so far.

Spurs have also improved as the season has progressed, despite the loss against Chelsea on Saturday, and should be too strong for the Slovenian outfit on Thursday night.

The north Londoners are priced at 4/6 to get the win, the hosts are 4/1 to pick up maximum points and the draw is 11/4.

Unlike his Spurs counterpart, Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers has fielded weakened sides in the Europa League so far and the Reds face a big test on Thursday as they host big-spending Russian side Anzhi Makhachkala.

Anzhi have some world class players, including Samuel Eto’o and Lassana Diarra, as well as an experienced manager in the shape of Guus Hiddink and are more than capable of causing Liverpool problems.

If Rodgers does indeed leave the likes of Steven Gerrard, Luis Suarez, Daniel Agger and Pepe Reina out of the starting line-up, as expected, Anzhi could cause an upset and seal an historic win at Anfield.  This is a bet that should certainly be considered an outsider, but the 11/5 on offer for an away win could well be a risk worth taking.

Liverpool are 6/5 to secure the victory, and the draw can be backed at 12/5.

Udinese, who are in Group A with Liverpool, travel to Swiss side Young Boys on Thursday and the Italian side should be strong enough so come away with maximum points.

Young Boys have lost both of their Europa League games to date, while Udinese drew with Anzhi before grabbing a win at Anfield in their last fixture.

The Serie A outfit are an experienced side in the Europa League and will be keen to beat Young Boys and edge closer to the knock-out stages. A win for Udinese is priced at a very attractive 13/8, the draw is 11/5 and the hosts are 8/5 to pick up their first win of the competition.

Newcastle boss Alan Pardew has fielded his fringe players in Europe this season but his youngsters have impressed and secured a 3-0 win over Bordeaux in their last European fixture.  The north East side host Belgian outfit Club Brugge on Thursday and should be able to get the win and maintain their unbeaten record in the Europa League.

The Belgian side have a reasonable record on the road domestically but slumped to a 4-0 defeat at Bordeaux in Europe.  Newcastle look good value at 4/6 to take all three points, the draw is 11/4 and the visitors are 4/1 to grab a shock victory.

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It seems crazy that England are going into a major championships with a new manager who has had little time to prepare, given the fact that he only finished with his responsibilities at West Brom on May 13 – and the Three Lions are still fourth favourites at 10/1 to lift a trophy they have never won.

There have been a few talking points raised by the squad he named last Wednesday but the proof is in the pudding, and Hodgson – like the rest of us – will have a better idea of his starting XI following the warm-up games.

The first of two fixtures has been one that has caused England problems in the past with the team, which has had the better of the head-to-head record, not having beaten Norway since 1980 – albeit just five games ago.

Although there are one or two names recognisable to Premier League watchers, this Norway side does not look the strongest on paper – made evident by a 4-1 drubbing against Wales just last November.

England have been installed as the 11/10 favourites in the match betting, despite playing away, which is perhaps not surprising given Norway’s current resources with Fulham’s Brede Hangeland and John Arne Riise as well as Blackburn’s Morten Gamst Pedersen the better known faces in the squad.

It will be interesting to see the make-up of Hodgson’s first team selection for his country, particularly with just one other friendly (against Belgium at Wembley on June 2) to come before the tournament gets underway, but there are sure to be a host of substitutions as the former Switzerland and Finland boss tests his charges on the international stage.

That could give ammunition for those looking to oppose Hodgson’s men at the prices and Norway should not be under-estimated at 5/2 with the draw 23/10, given the fact that they only missed out on the play-offs for Euro 2012 due to a worse goal difference behind Portugal.

In fact, Egil Olsen’s men beat the Portuguese 1-0 on home territory in qualification, while they also held Group H winners Denmark 1-1 in an unbeaten campaign on home soil, suffering two defeats on their travels.

However, that recent defeat to Wales still leaves doubt in the mind with their goal coming from a horrendous gaffe from goalkeeper Wayne Hennessy.

The Norwegians did bounce back with a 3-0 defeat of Northern Ireland in a friendly but England are a much tougher proposition and should have the tools to pick up a morale-boosting win – even with Andy Carroll and Stewart Downing in the squad.

It would be prudent to wait for team news, given the nature of the clash – a friendly ahead of a major tournament with a new manager’s first squad – before jumping in to the goal scorer markets, although Hodgson’s options up front are somewhat limited.

Wayne Rooney and Danny Welbeck have been struggling with niggling injuries so could miss out, particularly with the former suspended for the first two games of Euro 2012.

That could see Carroll indeed start up front with Jermain Defoe, seemingly a substitute at Spurs, and both are available at 11/2 First/Last and 3/2 Anytime Goalscorer, with Welbeck also priced up at those odds.

Whatever side England put out on Saturday night should be good enough to come away with the win but of course whether it is good enough to go all the way in Poland and Ukraine remains to be seen.

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This is the post-season that the Blades probably did not want, having spent so much time in the top two in League One only to falter late in the game and surrender the initiative to Sheffield Wednesday – who took great delight in obliging.

Danny Wilson’s men only lost one of their last 12 matches in the regular season but the last three games proved their undoing – starting with losing at MK Dons on April 21.

United still had the chance of automatic promotion but could only draw their last two games to finish three points behind Wednesday and in the dreaded play-offs.

In theory, Wilson’s charges have been handed the easier last-four clash as they take on the side that finished sixth in the table, courtesy of a better goal difference.

However, one of those late draws was suffered at the hands of the Boro, who had actually gone 2-0 up in the Bramall Lane fixture, only to be denied the three points by an 85th-minute equaliser.

Gary Smith’s men may well be the outsiders to triumph at Wembley, but they can take plenty of confidence into the play-offs against United, not least because of that recent draw.

Stevenage also won the fixture at Broadhall Way earlier in the season so should be relishing the play-off match-up as they go into Friday’s fixture having lost just one of their last 16 games.

The hosts have also made Broadhall Way something of a fortress, having lost just three times at home, and they have been installed as the favourites at 11/8 to win the first leg, with United priced at 2/1 and the draw is on offer at 9/4.

In fact, the Boro have only been beaten nine times this season in the league, but the big problem for Smith and his men is finding ways to win – the club has been held to 19 draws this season, 10 of which came in the last 16 games of the season and seven of those were in March.

However, a 3-0 win over Bury to ensure a play-off place as well as their season record against the Blades, who will be the side suffering the weight of expectation, should set them up well for the first leg – especially with the home crowd behind them.

The goals have been spread around among the Stevenage players with Chris Beardsley, Luke Freeman and Michael Bostwick scoring seven, while captain Mark Roberts has chipped in with six and may well tempt some at 20/1 to score first, while Scott Laird needs to be considered at 12/1 as he has notched eight times this season.

United have scored plenty of goals this season, but they of course are shorn of top-scorer Ched Evans, although Richard Cresswell (6/1) and Lee Williamson (10/1) have both regularly found the net this term.

The Blades carry an obvious threat having been there or thereabouts for automatic promotion for most of the season, but Stevenage have nothing to lose and will be going all out to secure an advantage to take to Bramall Lane next week.

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The Catalan giants have been the outright favourites throughout the competition and are currently Evens to lift the trophy, with Real Madrid available at 10/3 after being handed the toughest of draws.

Despite suffering a 5-0 hammering at the Nou Camp earlier in the season, which meant a run of five straight defeats against Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona, Real have turned the corner and will go into the first-leg clash at the Bernabeu in an ideal position – perhaps reflected in the betting as they are slight favourites at 8/5 to Barca’s 13/8, with the draw on offer at 12/5.

Los Merengues managed to salvage a point in La Liga 10 days ago at the Bernabeu, despite being reduced to 10 men, but then won their first trophy under Jose Mourinho and first since 2008 when they beat their arch rivals in the Copa del Rey last Wednesday, winning 1-0 after extra-time.

Cristiano Ronaldo had struggled to find the net against the Blaugrana but appears to have turned the tide after scoring in both those encounters and should be looked at in the goalscoring markets (4/1 First/Last Goalscorer, Evens Anytime) – particularly as he takes free-kicks and penalties.

Mourinho of course managed to steer Inter Milan past Barcelona at this stage last season and has adopted what appears to be similar tactics aimed at stifling the likes of Xavi and Andres Iniesta in midfield.

Nobody out-Barcelona’s Barcelona but by employing Pepe in midfield alongside Xabi Alonso and Sami Khedira, Real playing an aggressive, counter-attacking style certainly made life difficult for Barca – and expect more of the same on Wednesday.

Despite the wealth of attacking talent on both sides, those last two games have been very tight, cagey affairs and with a second-leg to come, the same is expected as Under 2.5 goals is priced at 4/5, with Over at 10/11.

As well as the tonic of Copa del Rey success, Real will certainly be buoyed by the performance of their ’second-string’ who routed third-placed Valencia at the Mestalla 6-3 on Saturday with Kaka and Gonzalo Higuain scoring five goals between them.

Ricardo Carvalho’s absence through suspension from Wednesday’s clash could be a problem as he has been a rock at the back and potential replacement Raul Albiol, who was sent off in the La Liga clash after hauling down David Villa, looks a weak link.

Sami Khedira’s absence through injury looks less of a blow with Lassana Diarra expected to fill in but it is Barcelona who are struggling more on the injury front.

The left-back position looks problematic with Eric Abidal, Maxwell and Adriano all ruled out and that is certainly an area Real can exploit – be it through Ronaldo, Higuain, Mesut Ozil or Angel Di Maria.

Carles Puyol and Gabriel Milito have both been included in the travelling squad but are on the way back from injury and Guardiola may have to employ a midfielder out of position defensively to cover.

Of course, there is no getting away from the fact that Barcelona have the world player of the year, Lionel Messi, in their ranks and have the potential to beat anybody – with Xavi and Iniesta also pulling the strings.

However, with a second-leg at the Nou Camp to come, Guardiola is sure to play it more cautiously given recent results and would be happy to take them back home still in contention.

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England play their final warm-up game before the World Cup against Japan in Graz on Sunday. After the mixed performance in Monday’s game with Mexico, the speculation is that the Italian will send out his preferred eleven.

Home Saturday Night? You can bet on the Eurovision Song Contest

At least one will be missing though because Gareth Barry has not recovered from his ankle injury- and may not make it to South Africa at all. The absence of the Manchester City man- and the long-term problems of Owen Hargreaves- has left a midfield conundrum.

Very few teams have success at the highest level without a defensively-minded central midfielder. As a former defender, Barry converted to the role with England when Hargreaves fell out of contention. Without either man, Capello has a big problem.

Michael Carrick is out of form and Tom Huddlestone and Scott Parker are both very inexperienced at international level. James Milner looked uncomfortable there against a slick Mexico and the Steven Gerrard- Frank Lampard pairing has never really gelled.

There are cases of players suddenly propelled into a major tournament from nowhere and Parker might just get a chance to play himself in on Sunday alongside Lampard, with Gerrard retaining his roving role.

Outside central midfield, fans will be eager to see if Theo Walcott or Aaron Lennon starts on the right. Ashley Cole and John Terry should return to the defence and the other questions are who supports Wayne Rooney up front and who gets the nod in goal.

• Home Saturday Night? You can bet on the Eurovision Song Contest

Robert Green did himself no harm against Mexico but David James and the youthful Joe Hart both have greater presence in the nets.

Japan are unlikely to be as testing as Mexico, although they are always well-organised and play at a formidably high tempo. They have made it to the World Cup Finals again and soccer continues to improve in Asia. Japan have twice played in England in friendlies and managed a 1-1 result in 2004.
England will go into the match as hot favourites but much depends on the side that the manager selects. It is still possible that experimentation will be the order of the day, offering an opportunity to Japan.

Their last two outings have been none too impressive though, losing to Serbia by three goals and going down 2-0 to South Korea. England should be able to post a victory but it will be the manner of the performance that really matters.

Related posts:

1. Fabio Capello Tests His Defensive Reserves Against Egypt
2. Still Plenty to Play for after the First Leg World Cup Playoffs
3. Play Off Final Prediction: Can Blackpool Pull Off Cardiff Shock?

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Chelsea fans have enjoyed the greatest successes in the club’s history since Roman Abramovich took over the club in 2004. Two big prizes have eluded them though-the Champions League and,up to this weekend- the domestic ‘Double’.

Now the Double has been secured thanks to a hard-fought victory over Portsmouth. The record books will show a bland 1-0 scoreline but that hardly tells the story of a match that refused to follow the script.

Chelea had been favourites to score a bagful of goals and they could easily have come in at half-time with a decisive lead. The Blues hit the woodwork five times in the first period including miss of the season- and possibly the decade- by Salomon Kalou from five yards out and no one in front of him.

Portsmouth battled hard but Chelsea seemed able to cut through the relegated side with some ease. The South Coasters clearly took heart though, because Avram Grant’s team came out after the break with a sharper approach and matched Chelsea for long spells.

The feeling crept in that this might be Portsmouth’s day and when substitute Javier Belletti rashly challenged Aruna Dindane, Pompey had a penalty. Unfortunately for their fans, Kevin Prince-Boateng hit a weak shot that Petr Cech saved with his legs.

As is often the case, Chelsea were in front very quickly after that let -off. David James had produced one excellent save to deny Didier Drogba’s free kick in the first half but he couldn’t reach another precise effort from the Ivorian.

The striker makes a habit of scoring in cup finals and though Portsmouth remained in the game they never really created another gilt-edged chance. The afternoon became notable for a second missed penalty when Frank Lampard of all people pulled his shot wide of the post.

Chelsea’s defence made sure that Lampard didn’t have to regret his miss. Michael Ballack might have felt justice was done as he was forced to leave the action after a late challenge from Prince-Boateng in the first half.

Chelsea have now won the FA Cup three times in four seasons and Ashley Cole has broken the record for winner’s medals, which has stood since the Nineteenth Century. The left back now has six in his collection- three with Chelsea and three with Arsenal.

Related posts:

1. FA Cup Final- How Many Chelsea Will Score?
2. Chelsea Take the Premier League Title In Style
3. Villa Maintain Push for Second Final But Must Take On Chelsea

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