Arguably the two best sides in world football go head-to-head on Wednesday night in the first leg of a mouth-watering Champions League semi-final clash and Barcelona are strong 4/9 favourites to qualify for the Wembley final on May 28.
The Catalan giants have been the outright favourites throughout the competition and are currently Evens to lift the trophy, with Real Madrid available at 10/3 after being handed the toughest of draws.
Despite suffering a 5-0 hammering at the Nou Camp earlier in the season, which meant a run of five straight defeats against Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona, Real have turned the corner and will go into the first-leg clash at the Bernabeu in an ideal position – perhaps reflected in the betting as they are slight favourites at 8/5 to Barca’s 13/8, with the draw on offer at 12/5.
Los Merengues managed to salvage a point in La Liga 10 days ago at the Bernabeu, despite being reduced to 10 men, but then won their first trophy under Jose Mourinho and first since 2008 when they beat their arch rivals in the Copa del Rey last Wednesday, winning 1-0 after extra-time.
Cristiano Ronaldo had struggled to find the net against the Blaugrana but appears to have turned the tide after scoring in both those encounters and should be looked at in the goalscoring markets (4/1 First/Last Goalscorer, Evens Anytime) – particularly as he takes free-kicks and penalties.
Mourinho of course managed to steer Inter Milan past Barcelona at this stage last season and has adopted what appears to be similar tactics aimed at stifling the likes of Xavi and Andres Iniesta in midfield.
Nobody out-Barcelona’s Barcelona but by employing Pepe in midfield alongside Xabi Alonso and Sami Khedira, Real playing an aggressive, counter-attacking style certainly made life difficult for Barca – and expect more of the same on Wednesday.
Despite the wealth of attacking talent on both sides, those last two games have been very tight, cagey affairs and with a second-leg to come, the same is expected as Under 2.5 goals is priced at 4/5, with Over at 10/11.
As well as the tonic of Copa del Rey success, Real will certainly be buoyed by the performance of their ’second-string’ who routed third-placed Valencia at the Mestalla 6-3 on Saturday with Kaka and Gonzalo Higuain scoring five goals between them.
Ricardo Carvalho’s absence through suspension from Wednesday’s clash could be a problem as he has been a rock at the back and potential replacement Raul Albiol, who was sent off in the La Liga clash after hauling down David Villa, looks a weak link.
Sami Khedira’s absence through injury looks less of a blow with Lassana Diarra expected to fill in but it is Barcelona who are struggling more on the injury front.
The left-back position looks problematic with Eric Abidal, Maxwell and Adriano all ruled out and that is certainly an area Real can exploit – be it through Ronaldo, Higuain, Mesut Ozil or Angel Di Maria.
Carles Puyol and Gabriel Milito have both been included in the travelling squad but are on the way back from injury and Guardiola may have to employ a midfielder out of position defensively to cover.
Of course, there is no getting away from the fact that Barcelona have the world player of the year, Lionel Messi, in their ranks and have the potential to beat anybody – with Xavi and Iniesta also pulling the strings.
However, with a second-leg at the Nou Camp to come, Guardiola is sure to play it more cautiously given recent results and would be happy to take them back home still in contention.
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