The post Watch: Graham Hunter sees tough games for two of La Liga’s top three and a comfortable stroll for the other appeared first on Paddy Power Blog.
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Win this and Atlético’s last few days will have been like the climactic end-game in the Godfather when Michael Corleone hacks down every single one of his would be rivals.
Both Valencia and Sevilla legitimately have their eye on clawing points from the big three and, who knows, possibly testing Atlético’s chin with a few hooks and jabs across the season. Probe for weaknesses.
But Diego ‘El Cholo’ Simeone was back from his ban last weekend. The man in black walked the line again. Or prowled. Result? Sevilla were ripped to shreds – 4-0.
Midweek Atlético went toe-to-toe with the runaway Italian champions in the Champions League and cut Juve down to size too.
The Tattaglias and Barzinis down. Just Moe Greene left.
Valencia. They shouldn’t be credible for third place but if Peter Lim’s takeover is confirmed and if Jorge Mendes keeps putting his formidable transfer market power at Valencia’s disposal then you never know.
Paco Alcácer has four goals and a goal assist in his last five games while Rodrigo, a Real Madrid youth product, would love to send one into Atlético’s ribs.
They’ll face Miguel Ángel Moyà who’s time as Valencia’s keeper was plagued by both injuries and doubts about his top level mentality – will he fluff his return lines or steal the show?
Atlético continue to produce set-play gems and, importantly, to win the second ball around the box. Both centre backs, Mandzukic, Raúl García and the wonderful Arda all look like scoring value in, potentially, a 2-2 draw.
A match between two clubs in a race to see which one can be first to resemble Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona.
The Catalans spent well over €100m in the summer.
Paco Jémez has had to cope with incorporating 17 new players, swapped, borrowed or found down the back of the sofa. You’d think that the visitors might get there first.
But it’s Rayo’s desire to reproduce the best of the Guardiola ideal at Vallecas which tells you this should be a corker of a game.
So successful is Jémez that in 2013 Rayo ended Barcelona’s 317 game run since 2008 when they had always dominated possession. But despite owning the ball for 54% of the time they still lost 4-0.
Rayo don’t have a Petrodollar billionaire owner like PSG but their scouts will have seen the Parisians showing, in winning 3-2 on Tuesday, that if you run at the Blaugrana full backs, if you get quality crosses into the box – fun things can result.
Leo Baptistão has not only scored four times [two off his right foot, one off his left and one header] in two consecutive wins over Athletic and Levante, but he’s precisely the quick footed, hard running striker who might cause danger.
Worth a look for a goal as is Alberto Bueno [Bertie Good] who has four in six and who won the 2006 European U19 Championship with Juan Mata and Gerard Piqué for Spain against Scotland.
Jordi Alba, Andrés Iniesta and Pedro are all notably lacking form for Barcelona who are neither invulnerable nor as intimidating now as they once were.
But Rayo’s attacking, front foot, ‘un-park the bus and drive it through the opposition defence’ will also allow space for Leo Messi, Neymar, Munir and possibly even Xavi who looks fresh and with a free kick goal in him pretty soon.
There should be goals, entertainment and three points for the league leaders despite the whiff of a shock.
Okay – quick quiz question. What links multimillionaire Thomas Gravesen, celebrity PSG fan David Beckham and racehorse owner Michael ‘Go on my son’ Owen?
Answer – they all started for Real Madrid the last time Athletic Bilbao won at the Bernabéu.
Nearly a decade ago.
Not a good for anyone who’s tempted to oppose Madrid based on the fact that this is last season’s fourth-placed club meeting the side which finished just a place above them.
And, just like in real life, the news gets worse and worse.
During that decade Madrid [home and away] have scored three or more goals against Athletic on 13 occasions. Defences on top… etc.
Right now the Basque club: sit a point off the bottom three, have only beaten Levante in La Liga, who ARE in the bottom three, this season; was beaten on its last trip to Madrid, ten days ago against Rayo, and its chief goal threat, Aritz Aduriz, has only ever scored once against Los Blancos – four and a half years ago for Mallorca.
After Athletic lost 2-1 to BATE on Tuesday their coach, Ernesto ‘The Ant’ Valverde savaged them: “We were super-weak, lacking in intensity and virtually unrecognisable”
Madrid, after 15 goals in three league games, centre their concerns around the rampant Cristiano Ronaldo.
He left the Ludogorets midweek win with a sore Achilles, victim of a studding, and thus whether or how he plays is of extreme interest. Last time he was absent for Madrid… they lost.
There is one interesting glimmer for the Basques – that 0-2 win back in February 2005 was coached by Valverde during his first spell in charge.
What’s that? You want another straw to cling to?
Fine. Madrid conceded YET another set piece goal to a header against Ludogorets in midweek, Aduriz’s only goal against Madrid was a header and he’s one of Europe’s finest exponents of the nod to the net.
More? Referee Alex Hernández Hernández in his two seasons in Spain’s elite has been in charge of Madrid three times – and they’ve lost twice.
To Malága and Celta.
And he sent two of Athletic’s opponents off in his first term in the big time.
That aside it looks like Madrid should score three, that Karim Benzema’s on bouncy form and is worth an ‘anytime’ punt [as is Ibai Gomez for the visitors] and that one of Spain’s champions league representatives might even be in a relegation position come late Sunday night.
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The FA Cup has taken centre-stage in England this weekend but the battle for supremacy goes on across the European leagues.
Here are the top five games on Sunday.
Inter Milan v Palermo (2pm)
Inter will be hoping their rivals and Serie A leaders AC Milan slip up on Saturday evening when they travel to face Catania as they bid to make up more ground on them in the race for the Scudetto (Inter 11/4 Serie A Outright).
Leonardo’s side have won four league games on the bounce to move to fourth in Serie A and are nine points behind AC with a game in hand.
New striker Giampaolo Pazzini could start if he overcomes an ankle injury, while Inter will be without Sunderland-bound Sulley Muntari. Cristian Chivu, Dejan Stankovic and Ivan Cordoba will all serve one-match bans while Julio Cesar, Milito and Wesley Sneijder are all injured.
Palermo will be no pushovers having moved up to seventh in the table with a 1-0 win against Brescia, but Inter should have too much at the San Siro.
Prediction: Inter To Win 2-1 @ 7/1
Osasuna v Real Madrid (6pm)
Jose Mourinho’s men could be seven points behind Spanish Primera Liga leaders Barcelona by the time this game gets underway should the Catalan giants see off Hercules on Saturday evening.
Madrid have struggled of late after drawing at lowly Almeria and scraping past Mallorca 1-0 on home soil last weekend. Therefore a win at struggling Osasuna could be imperative on Sunday evening.
Karim Benzema (9/2 2 Or More Goals) will look to make it as difficult as possible for new signing Emmanuel Adebayor to secure a regular starting place after he joined from Manchester City this week.
Osasuna are just a point clear of the bottom three at the time of typing and could do with some points for survival purposes.
However, with the heat well and truly on Real Madrid, surely they must win this one.
Prediction: Real To Win 2-0 @ 5/1
Espanyol v Villarreal (8pm)
These two sides have enjoyed successful La Liga seasons in their own right as they head into this match at the Cornella well placed in fifth and third position respectively.
Espanyol have been hit by the sale of full-back Didac Vila to AC Milan, while central defender Victor Ruiz joined Napoli earlier this week.
How this will impact on the home team remains to be seen given that they have won all but one of their home games so far this term.
Villarreal (21/20 La Liga W/O Barcelona & Real Madrid) have won their last two fixtures and will be brimming with confidence going into this one.
Prediction: Draw @ 12/5
Monaco v Marseille (8pm)
Defending champions Marseille (12/5 French Ligue 1 Outright) travel to the Stade Louis II boosted by their first win in six to see off Bordeaux last time out. This put them in fifth position and six points behind current leaders Lille.
On paper, it looks a banker away-win given that Monaco are struggling in second-bottom position with just three wins from their 20 Ligue 1 games this season.
However, the hosts will hope Mahamadou Diarra’s arrival from Real Madrid and the loan signing of Gregory Lacombe from Montpellier will start to pay off immediately.
Prediction: 1-1 Draw @ 5/1
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (4.30pm)
The action in Germany’s Bundesliga on Sunday centres around the battle to avoid relegation as bottom club Borussia Monchengladbach travel to mid-table Frankfurt aiming to stay in touch with the teams immediately above them.
The game takes on extra significance as Michael Fink could make his Borussia debut against his former club after arriving at the Bundesliga strugglers from Turkish side Besiktas.
And he will be desperately hoping to get his career with the basement boys off to a flying start on his old stamping ground.
Borussia’s problems have been at home this season, where they have yet to register a win, while they have picked up maximum points three times on the road.
Frankfurt have lost four at home so it would not be a surprise if an away win popped up in this fixture.
Prediction: Draw/B Monchengladbach @ 15/2
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While there is a massive day of action in the English Premier League on Sunday, it is worth noting that several fixtures across Europe could also have a huge bearing on the outcome of their respective league’s title races.
Here are the top five games taking place on the continent that are worth checking out.
Almeria v Real Madrid (6pm)
Jose Mourinho’s side sit two points behind rivals Barcelona in the race for the Primera Liga crown (Real 6/4 Outright) after 18 matches and they will be fully expected to leap-frog Pep Guardiola’s side for a short time on Sunday when they travel to face lowly Almeria.
Real have won six on their travels so far, while second-bottom Almeria have no wins on home soil from their opening eight matches to date so it appears that an away-day banker is on the cards.
Prediction: Cristiano Ronaldo 1st Goal & Real To Win 3-0 Scorecast @ 14/1
Barcelona v Malaga (8pm)
The reigning champions (1/2 Outright) are not expected to be off top spot for too long on Sunday as their home game against lowly Malaga kicks off shortly after Real’s game against Almeria concludes.
Barca have been in good form of late with a 4-0 win at Deportivo La Coruna last weekend consolidating their two point lead at the top of the table.
They should have far too much for Malaga, but it might not be as clear-cut as you would think as the opposition go into the match having won their last away game 2-1 at Sporting Gijon, while Barca struggled to see of Levante 2-1 in their last outing at the Nou Camp.
Prediction: Barca To Win 3-1 @ 11/1
Marseille v Bordeaux (8pm)
We will take a giant leap across The Pyrenees and into the south of France for our next game as the only match on Sunday sees a clash between two sides firmly embroiled in what is becoming a very congested battle for the French Ligue 1 crown.
Marseille (21/10 French Ligue 1 Outright) sit in fifth position but are only three points off Lille in top spot ahead of this weekend’s action which brings an end to the winter break.
Marseille went into the break having drawn two on the bounce, while seventh-placed Bordeaux did the same so it is set to be a close encounter at the Stade Velodrome.
Bordeaux could jump above Marseille in the table with a win so it is all to play for.
Prediction: Draw 1-1 @ 5/1
Lecce v AC Milan (7.45pm)
Into Italy’s Serie A now and all eyes will be on lowly Lecce as they look to try and slow down the Rossoneri’s march towards the title (10/11 Serie A Outright) on Sunday evening.
Milan are four points clear of the chasing pack but returned from the winter break last weekend looking out-of-sorts as they were forced to fight back from 3-1 down to eventually snatch an injury-time 4-4 draw against Udinese at the San Siro.
Meanwhile, Lecce may sit third-bottom in the table but they stunned third-placed Lazio with a 2-1 win at the Stadio Olimpico to boost their survival fight.
It is set to be closer than you would think but Milan should just about nick it.
Prediction: Milan To Win 2-1 @ 7/1
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hannover (2.30pm)
Moving up to Germany’s Bundesliga and, with Borussia Dortmund 13 points clear at the top, it does not look like there will be much of a title race in the second half of the campaign.
However, there is still an interesting battle for the Champions League and Europa League places going on beneath them and these two sides are firmly in the mix.
Eintracht Frankfurt are in seventh spot – but only seven points off second position – while Hannover are sitting pretty in fourth on 31 points.
Frankfurt inflicted Dortmund’s first away defeat of the season after eight successive wins just before the winter break in December so will return to action brimming with confidence after that 1-0 success.
Hannover have won four and lost four with no draws on their travels to date, but lost 3-1 at Nuremberg last time out on December 18.
Everything points to a home win, but I feel the visitors are long overdue an away-day draw.
Prediction: Draw @ 23/10
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The weather has decimated the Scottish football programme but three fixtures have beaten the big freeze, while we will also have a look at the Spanish matches that are live on TV on Saturday.
Hamilton v Celtic
Hamilton’s last win was back on October 30 when they secured a 1-0 away win over Motherwell but November has been a tough month. Four defeats were followed by a goalless draw with St Mirren last time out and that is hardly the sort of form you want with Celtic due to visit. The Bhoys have stuttered themselves since putting nine past Aberdeen and have won only one of their last four SPL games, but they will surely be far too good for Accies, who have yet to win at home this season.
Verdict: Away win (3/10)
Value bet: Celtic to score in both halves (21/20).
Hearts v Inverness CT
Hearts are the in-form team north of the border with six successive top-flight victories, which has seen them reach the giddy heights of third in the SPL standings, with 32 points from 16 games. Inverness are, themselves, unbeaten in five with three wins and two draws and this has the makings of a cracker at Tynecastle. Hearts duo Ian Black and Eggert Jonsson are expected return from illness while Inverness midfielder Nick Ross has also recovered from illness.
Verdict: Draw (13/5)
Value bet: 1-1 draw (11/2).
Kilmarnock v Hibernian
Killie have lost just once in six top-flight games and are in decent form and will look to follow up last weekend?s victory over Aberdeen with three points against Hibs. The Edinburgh club have stuttered since their amazing victory over Rangers, with one win, one defeat and a draw last time out. Both clubs are comfortably in mid-table but a home win is predicted here in a tight contest at Rugby Park.
Verdict: Killie win (11/10)
Value Bet: Killie to win 1-0 (11/2).
Espanyol v Barcelona
Barca seem untouchable at present and Arsenal will probably find that out in the next stage of the Champions League but Espanyol must try to find a way to stop them this weekend. Espanyol are fourth in the La Liga standings but Barca have shipped just eight goals all season and seem certain to add another three points to their tally here.
Verdict: Away win (2/7)
Value bet: Barcelona to keep a clean sheet (5/6)
Real Sociedad v Valencia
Theses two clubs will be battling it out for a Europe League place or, in Valencia’s case, maybe a spot in the Champions League. Sociedad are looking to bounce back from their mauling at the hands of Barca last time out while Valencia were involved in a 3-3 draw with Osasuna in their last top-flight outing. Stalemate could be the order of the day here with neither side willing to give an inch in pursuit of a European spot.
Verdict: draw (9/4)
Value bet 1-1 (1/2).
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