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Home nations make nervy qualification start

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Following the World Cup qualifiers over the past week, the European groups are beginning to take shape with a feel for who is now likely to make it to Brazil in 2014 emerging. Here, we assess how the home nations’ chances look after the early games.

England

Wednesday’s delayed draw with Poland exposed England’s frailties and dampened the optimism generated by big wins over Moldova and San Marino earlier in the group.

Roy Hodgson’s side remain well placed to qualify for Brazil and their favourites tag in Group H proves they will have no problem getting positive results against the aforementioned two minnows.

However, it is against the better sides that they struggle – as the draws against Ukraine and the Poles have proved – and the Three Lions certainly need to improve overall if they are to seal a spot in the top two.

Montenegro’s unexpected rise to the top of Group H early on has moved them into contention in the betting market and shaken things up somewhat and Hodgson and his players know how important a run of victories now is for his side to ensure their place in Brazil.

Scotland

The pressure has intensified on Scotland boss Craig Levein following their meek surrender in Belgium that leaves the Tartan Army on just two points from four games and now long odds to qualify with totesport.

Draws against Serbia and Macedonia, whose odds have now shortened to qualify, followed up by that dramatic defeat in Wales, means their chances of making a major tournament for the first time since 1998 are hanging by a thread.

Only a remarkable comeback from this position in the group and a series of unlikely wins over seemingly better-equipped opposition will save Scotland now – and that, sadly, looks about as likely as Levein still being in the job come the start of November.

Wales

Wales are only marginally better off than their Celtic cousins after the 2-0 defeat in Croatia on Tuesday left Chris Coleman’s side on three points in Group A. They, too, simply do not look good enough to find big wins over Serbia, Macedonia and Croatia in the return game and the feeling is the wait for an appearance at a World Cup Finals will go well beyond 2014, as their qualifying odds now reflect.

Limited resources and only a handful of top drawer players, like Gareth Bale and Joe Allen, suggest the best they might be able to hope for come next autumn will be the satisfaction of finishing above local rivals Scotland in the final standings.

Northern Ireland

Michael O’Neill’s side produced the result of the past week as far as the home nations are concerned when they came away from Portugal with a point after a 1-1 draw in Porto.

Niall McGinn’s goal was giving the international minnows, who have not made it to the World Cup since 1986, a superb 1-0 away win until Portugal eventually equalised in the second half but the result gives Northern Ireland hope of better to come after years in the doldrums.

True, tough tests lie ahead in upcoming clashes against Russia and Israel, and they have only two points from three games but if they can build on the Porto point with fellow minnows Luxembourg and Azerbaijan also in the group, the qualification dream, despite their generous odds, could well be alive.

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Home nations hit road to Brazil

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The upcoming international action gives us the chance to assess who out of the home nations can qualify for the World Cup in 2014 as countries prepare for their first group games with the planned final destination being Brazil in two years’ time.

England

Having made it to the last four World Cups, it would be a major surprise if the Three Lions failed to negotiate the group stage for Brazil 2014 over the next 18 months or so (2/5f to win Group H). England’s recent pre-tournament qualifying record is actually very, very good – it’s just when the real action itself gets underway that they let everyone down. Expectations were rightly lowered for Euro 2012 and Roy Hodgson’s side eventually went out on penalties – again – to Italy in the summer as they found their usual level and exited at the quarter-final stage.  A group containing Moldova, Ukraine (9/2 to win Group H), Montenegro, Poland and San Marino looks tricky at worst but fairly straightforward at best and expect Hodgson to guide his side through to Brazil without too many problems. It’s just following that the hard work will start.

Verdict - Qualify as Group H winners.

Wales

Wales (28/1 to win Group A) have only ever made it to one World Cup – in 1958 – and are outsiders once again to make it through another tough qualifying group. Chris Coleman’s side face Belgium (who appear to have a ‘golden generation’ of top stars coming through), a talented Croatia, while they also must take on traditionally-tough opponents Macedonia and Serbia home and away and UK rivals Scotland in two games. Under former boss Gary Speed, Wales were on the up but, after his tragic passing earlier this year, the country’s football team have suffered, perhaps predictably so, as a whole new coaching team and methods have had to be implemented. There is talent available to Coleman but Aaron Ramsey, Gareth Bale and an ageing Craig Bellamy will, sadly, probably not be able to carry them through to Brazil on their own.

Verdict - Fourth in Group A.

Scotland

Scotland’s latest bid to qualify for a major tournament for the first time since 1998 begins with a winnable home match against Serbia on Saturday and they will hope to get off to a good start to give them a chance of making Brazil 2014 (18/1 to win Group A). The Scots have made good starts before, however, and then have faded badly when the crucial games came around but they will look at Group A and believe qualification can be theirs. Belgium (7/4f to win Group A) will more than likely top the standings but Craig Levein’s side can push Croatia hard for second spot and may just even sneak in as runners-up if they maintain their good home form and mix it up by being difficult to beat away from Hampden. It won’t be easy, of course, and Wales and Macedonia will be difficult opponents too but there is a feeling Scotland can finally progress, especially if Jordan Rhodes can transfer his prolific club form onto the international stage.

Verdict - Qualify as runners-up in Group B.

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland have not made the World Cup finals since their famous 1986 showing in Mexico and they do not appear to have enough strength in depth to make it out of Group F (40/1 to win Group). Michael O’Neill’s side will have been delighted with the draw as, aside from traditional heavyweights Russia and Portugal, Azerbaijan, Israel and Luxembourg could all be viewed as beatable opponents, especially in front of a packed, passionate Windsor Park crowd. They have probably the toughest of starts in Russia on Friday, though, and, while Northern Ireland might just pick up a win or two along the way, qualification again looks a bridge too far for the European minnows.

Verdict - Fourth in Group F.

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Tough tests for home nations

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Much of tomorrow’s focus will be on England’s clash with Italy, but there is an entire programme of international fixtures to look forward to, including an intriguing test for Northern Ireland, who are 13/8 to beat Finland.

Michael O’Neill’s men head into the home clash at Windsor Park in torrid form, having lost their last five international matches.

Finland, meanwhile, have lost just twice on their last five outings and were surprise winners against Turkey less than three months ago.

It is surprising, then, that the Scandinavian outfit are also locked on odds of 13/8 to win the game, as they appear have the edge in form.

Northern Ireland are placed 101 in the latest FIFA World Rankings, with Finland, who will look towards Rubin Kazan hitman Alexei Eremenko for goals, sitting at a more respectable 72.

The draw is available at 9/4, but a price of 13/8 on a Finland win is too good to ignore.

Elsewhere, Scotland welcome Australia to Easter Road on Wedneday evening for an encounter that has the potential to go either way.

The Scots’ recent form has been inconsistent, although there was nothing uncertain about the manner in which the USA went about dismantling Craig Levein’s men in their last match three months ago.

Australia are without a win since February, with their last two matches against Oman and Japan finishing all square.

It’s unsurprising, then, that so little separates the two teams in the match betting, though Scotland are the slight favourites at 6/4, ahead of Australia at 7/4.

But given the Socceroos’ knack for stalemates in recent months, the draw market at 23/10 is probably the real value option here.

With both teams likely to feature players who will have their own upcoming domestic commitments weighing on their shoulders, it’s unlikely that either set of players will have the drive to take this contest by the scruff of the neck.

Wales are another of our home nations who will play on home soil on Wednesday evening as they welcome the often unpredictable Bosnia-Herzegovina outfit to Parc y Scarlets.

The Welsh are without a win in two following disappointing home defeats to Costa Rica and Mexico, where they failed to score on either occasion, while their Eastern European opponents have also found it tough in recent months, crashing to defeat in each of their last five matches, albeit against strong opposition.

The trip to Wales for Bosnia-Herzegovina is followed by European Qualifiers against Liechtenstein and Latvia, and Safet Susic’s men will undoubtedly be eyeing a hat-trick of wins.

Chris Coleman’s Welsh Dragons will be aiming to extinguish that dream at the first hurdle, but with both teams priced at 13/8, the former Fulham boss, preparing for his first qualification campaign as national coach, will be anticipating a close contest.

The price of 9/4 on a draw again offers good value for money, but both teams have incentives to win this one, and home advantage under a coach who is keen to impress may just be enough to see Wales home.

The last of our home nations, Republic of Ireland, will be aiming to dispel memories of an arduous Euro 2012 campaign when they head east to face Serbia, who themselves will be keen to prove a point after failing to qualify for the tournament in Poland and Ukraine.

Serbia are the strong 5/6 favourites for this game, with a confidence-low Ireland priced at 10/3 to salvage some pride at the end of a tough summer campaign.

The draw at 5/2 offers would be a reasonable pick depending on conditions, but it’s tough to see past a comfortable victory for Serbia in this one, with a 2-0 scorecast at 13/2 offering particularly good value.

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Tough night for home nations

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While Wales and Northern Ireland don’t have much to play for on Tuesday night there is still plenty on the line for Scotland as their hopes of Euro 2012 qualification go right to the wire. However, the Scots face perhaps the trickiest test of the three home nations as they have to go to Spain looking to get a result, while Wales head to Bulgaria and Northern Ireland visit Italy.

Spain v Scotland (7:45pm)

We better start with the game that matters first, the Scots needing to match or better the result the Czech Republic achieve against Lithuania to reach the play-offs.

Craig Levein’s side are in pole position for second spot after an unconvincing 1-0 win over Liechtenstein on Saturday night but will be up against it in Alicante.

The Spaniards might have already secured top spot in Group I and be planning to rest a number of star players but they are still the world and European champions, if Scotland fans needed reminding.

The chance for some of Vincente Del Bosque’s lesser known players to stake a claim for a regular starting berth could spell trouble for Scotland’s injury-ravaged squad.

Levein could well be without Kenny Miller for the clash due to a groin injury, while Barry Bannan, Craig Mackail-Smith and Darren Fletcher all face late fitness tests.

Heartbreak has normally been in store for the Scots in these must-win qualifying games and against Spain its tough to see anything other than a result which will leave them without a summer of international football to look forward.

Match Bet – Draw HT/Spain FT  @ 9/2

Bulgaria v Wales (7:05pm)

Having started their campaign so poorly who would have thought Wales would head into their last game with a chance of finishing a respectable third in Group G.

The Welsh lost their first four matches before mounting a revival under Gary Speed, albeit too little too late in terms of qualifying for Euro 2012.

Under Speed Wales have improved dramatically, beating Montenegro and Switzerland and putting in a good shift against England in their last three games.

In Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey Wales have two of the hottest prospects in European football, while Jack Collison, Joe Ledley and Ashley Williams have all shown recently they can cut it on the international stage.

They head to Bulgaria to face a team really out of sorts and looking for a pick-me-up to avoid finishing bottom of Group G.

Lothar Matthaus has left his role as Bulgaria coach and the team are in desperate need of a new manager based on their shambolic showing in the 3-0 friendly defeat to Ukraine on Friday. Bulgaria look ripr for the picking so a rare away win could be on the cards for Wales.

Match Bet – Wales to win @ 3/1

Italy v Northern Ireland (7:45pm)

Much like Bulgaria Northern Ireland are in the midst of their own managerial crisis after Nigel Worthington confirmed his departure from the national set-up.

Things couldn’t have gone much worse for the Irish since the 4-0 win over the Faroe Islands in August, a result which left them in with a shout of reaching Euro 2012. They have since lost their last three qualifiers and have nothing to play for when they head to Pescara.

Worthington’s last game in charge could be a messy one as he has already lost a whole host of players to injury, including Chris Brunt, Sammy Clingan, Lee Camp, Grant McCann and Kyle Laffery. It could be a baptism of fire for some of Northern Ireland’s youngsters as they face an improving Italy side.

Cesare Prandelli has already helped Italy cruise through to the Euro 2012 finals and much like Spanish counterpart Del Bosque, the game with Northern Ireland is a chance to try out some young talent.

No matter who Prandelli puts out expect there to be a few goals and a comfortable win for the Italians.

Match Bet – Italy 3-0 @ 6/1

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Celtic nations set for Euro test

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Friday night will throw up some intriguing games in the race to qualify for the Euro 2012 Championships in Poland and the Ukraine and it’s a big night for the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Wales for very different reasons.

The Republic have a crucial away trip to the continent to take on Andorra in what is a must-win for manager Giovanni Trapattoni and his men (Andorra 33/1, draw 12/1, ROI 1/20).

A victory on the road and a win against Armenia on Tuesday night would secure at least a play-off place for the Irishmen, who have enjoyed a decent qualifying campaign so far.

However they will not want to be looking too far ahead and must first focus on bagging the three points in Andorra.

Ireland currently sit in second place in Group B behind Russia but would overtake the favourites if they secured a victory on Friday night and the Russians failed to do likewise.

And Ireland really should come away with the win, as Andorra are one of only two teams in any group to have not picked up a single point in qualification so far.

Ireland will have Aston Villa defender Richard Dunne out of action due to suspension, however Darren O’Dea, who is on loan with Leeds United from Celtic, is set to deputise in a strong Republic side.

It’s hard to see the Andorrans causing any problems for Trapattoni’s men and it will be important for his side to improve their goal difference, with this group looking like it will come down to the wire.

A game that’s important for different reasons is Northern Ireland’s clash with Estonia, as under pressure manager Nigel Worthington looks to prove his doubters wrong (NI Evs, draw 12/5, Estonia 11/4).

The Ulstermen’s chances are all but over for qualifying for Euro 2012, and with another major tournament slipping them by, people have called for a fresh face to be brought into the managerial  hot seat.

With only two wins from their eight games so far, Northern Ireland have struggled to compete with the likes of Italy and Serbia.

However in Estonia, Worthington’s men have a real chance of pulling off a win if they can be backed by the home support at Windsor Park.

The Baltic nation have won two more games in Group C, however in what is likely to be a wet and windy night at Windsor Park, Northern Ireland might just pull off a victory for their under pressure boss.

Another manager who would love to see his side pick up three points is Wales manager Gary Speed, who has not made a smooth transition into international football on the none-playing side.

Wales’ most capped outfield player sees his side sit rock bottom of Pool G, which also includes the likes of England, Montenegro and Bulgaria.

Friday’s opponents for the Welsh at the Liberty Stadium will be Switzerland, who still have a chance to qualify for Euro 2012 (Wales 10/3, draw 13/5, Switzerland 4/5).

Speed has some injury concerns with Jack Collison and Andy King join fellow midfielder Joe Ledley on the list of absentees, in what is already a limited Wales squad.

Switzerland have proved to be an efficient team which can grind out results and unfortunately for Speed and his men, it could be another disappointing night for the Welsh.

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