Barcelona offer scant value in the outright markets to book a place in the Champions League quarter-finals and their excellent home form in Europe makes it difficult to build a case for Bayer Leverkusen – and APOEL, the first Cypriot side to reach the knockout stage, will look to keep the fairytale alive against Lyon.
Barcelona v Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen’s traditionally poor away form in the Champions League makes it difficult to predict anything other than a comfortable passage into the quarter-finals for Barcelona.
The Germans have gone 12 matches without an away win on the road in Europe, while the Catalan giants, who lead 3-1 from the first leg, have been in imperious form domestically since the last encounter, and are unbeaten in 14 home games in the Champions League.
At 20/1 (match prices), it’d be unwise to back Bayer Leverkusen to win at Camp Nou, while there is little value to be gained from backing Barca at 1/7.
But the Germans, for whom striker Stefan Kiessling is good form, have scored eight goals in their last three Bundesliga matches and haven’t failed to score in Europe since September. At 4/1 to score anytime, 28-year-old Kiessling is certainly worth consideration.
Barca have scored 30 goals in their last 10 home Champions League matches and should be expected to continue that attacking form, particularly with the reassurance of a two-goal cushion heading into the match.
It’s likely that the irrepressible Lionel Messi will be at the centre of any action in the final third, and for him to score first in another 3-1 Barcelona win is not beyond the realms of probability. At 16/1, that particular score-cast is definitely worth a look at.
APOEL v Lyon
It is more difficult to predict a winner in Cyprus, where APOEL will look to overturn a 1-0 first-leg deficit when they host Lyon on Wednesday.
The Cypriots have been strong at home in Europe of late, with a group match defeat to Shakhtar Donetsk this season their only home reverse in seven home Champions League fixtures.
Lyon, meanwhile, have been in poor form since their first-leg win over APOEL, conceding six goals in two Ligue 1 matches. That’s worth bearing in mind, particularly when you consider that you can get 11/4 on four or more goals being scored on the night.
“It’s hugely disappointing, but we have to stand right behind the team…we need to bounce back mentally,” said Lyon chairman Jean-Michel Aulas, after the embarrassing 2-0 defeat to Nancy.
The Cypriots, on the other hand, are doing well domestically, and represent good value at 2/1 to beat their French opponents after 90 minutes.
APOEL rarely concede more than once at home so it’d be wise to avoid a correct score selection in favour of Lyon of anything other than 1-0. At 5/1, that particular correct score selection isn’t a bad option for those who fancy the French outfit to steal a win.
Bafetimbi Gomis has already netted five times in the Champions League this season, and is decent value at 5/1 to score first. If Gomis does find the net for Lyon then they are at 20/1 to defend that lead.
For APOEL, expect Brazilian striker Ailton to be on the end of a few searching balls. He’s worth considering at 7/4 to convert at least one of them into a goal and add to the three he’s already grabbed in Europe so far this season.
If Ailton does find his form, then expect more goals to follow. Ailton’s goal being the first of a 2-2 draw on the night can be bought at 75/1 and, though Remi Garde’s men are favourites to win the win the match, a 3-1 victory for APOEL following an Ailton opener is still great value at 100/1.
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